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Gold, Silver Winning 2012 Asset Return Race With 11 Months Left
Gold outperformed (+0.5%) today (as the rest of its commodity peers lost ground on USD strength today) and Copper and Silver underperformed. But for January, Silver is the clear winner in the global asset return race (at almost a 20% gain) with Gold in 2nd place at around +11.2%. JGBs and the DXY (USD) along with UK Gilts and Oil lost the most ground among the major assets we track. The outperformance of the precious metals as the dollar ebbed along with the general 'last year's losers were January's winners' and vice-versa was evident as Asia Ex-Japan and EM equities surged along with Nasdaq (and Copper). Long-dated Treasuries have just limped into the money for the year as they rallied dramatically today - ending the day at their low yields (new record 5Y lows) with 30Y now -12bps on the week. FX markets gave a little of the USD strength back in the afternoon but the rally in stocks was almost entirely unsupported by risk assets in general (as it seemed like a desperate low-volume try to push ES back to VWAP into the close to hold the 50/200DMA golden cross in SPX) after this morning's dismal macro data. Financials rallied to fill some Friday close gaps but gave some back into the close as CDS inched wider and Energy underperformed as Oil came almost 3% off its early morning highs (managing to crawl back above $98 by the close). IG credit outperformed as HY and stocks were largely in sync but open to close, credit outperformed stocks on a beta basis (after overnight exuberance in stock futures faded).
Selected asset returns YTD (leaving Silver out due to its significant outlier nature on the y-axis at almost 20%) shows the reds (last year's losers) have tended to outperform and the greens (last year's winners) have underperformed in January. The dotted lines tended to be assets that moved only modestly and its clear that SPX and NDX have done well among that group.
A little tighter focus just on the US and precious metals shows an interesting limping lower post Bernanke in Stocks while PMs and Bond surged (perhaps QE was priced in or simply losing its mojo).
ES (the e-mini S&P 500 futures contract) managed to inch back up to VWAP (red oval) and then sell-off modestly into the close as heavy volume came in.
Once again we see ES tickled up by the algos to enable heavy institutional sell orders (much higher average trade size) at VWAP. This rally of the afternoon was not supported by any broad risk driver as Treasuries closed at low yields (and flattest curves), FX carry only just off its lows, and commodities weak with only credit (which we suspect was just being virtuously reracked as we heard volumes were thin in CDX). This dislocation is evident from the CONTEXT chart below, where correlations had been very high all day and fell apart as stocks rallied in the afternoon:
HYG and VXX also underperformed SPY but despite a surge in volumes in cash at the very close today, volumes in January for stocks were ridiculously low on average.
Gold pushed higher all afternoon as its peers stabilized in the red for the day. Copper and Silver have resynced for now and Gold has become much less correlated.
Chart of the day goes to Treasuries in our view though as the sell-off yesterday afternoon and overnight was entirely rejected as macro data in the US along with desperation in the Greek PSI drove safe haven flows (and perhaps some month-end rebalancing) into the entire complex with the long-end (duration baby) benefiting most.
Charts: Bloomberg and Capital Context
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$2 of silver for every $1 of gold, bitchezzz.
Little early in the season for a superior dance, ZH. I remember being way ahead many times last year before ending OK. It was a wild ride spanning 12 months.
who cares about shitty dances when you eventually will marry and have kids with the prom queen?
big downturn forming in SPX priced in gold and silver
Good news! BTFD
Pt got smashed today
Thanks for the update, junior Nadler.
Read the headline if the article is too confusing for you.
Shhhh! You're disturbing Trav's axe-grinding.
(You'd think the head of that poor axe would be nothing but a pile of iron filings by now.)
"This is Karl Denninger. If you don't cease and desist talking about the merits of gold and silver on ZeroHedge I will ban you from my blog forever. Consider this your last warning. Especially you, Photoguy."
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WCwWfSYBwOQ
Oh my GOD is that funny! I am still in tears!
Did you really receive that message above from Herr Forumfuhrer Douchinger himself? Not that I can really doubt it. What an intolerant, arrogant, ignorant bastard that piece of shit fiat-lover is!
Bravo for the slam against that Nadler clone!
HAHAHAHAHAHA
"HE HATES GOLD. HE HATES *(#CKING GOLLLLD" HAHAHAHAHAAHA.
THAT. IS. AWESOME.
More than an hour later, I am STILL laughing at it!
I had to watch it for the fourth time just now --- truly a classic!
Just bit into a 1982 Maple to prove it a soft metal. Hope it wasnt a good year. Got burrs on my coin now. Probably can only sell it for $25k when they going for $35k.
Just bit into a 1982 Maple to prove it a soft metal. Hope it wasnt a good year. Got burrs on my coin now. Probably can only sell it for $25k when they going for $35k.
picked up a few AG 100 oz bars today at 33.10 + 1.50 premium - how long to recover the premium?
Of course you'll never know until you actually sell them.
sell them?
If you don't plan on selling them, why would you buy 100 oz bars? I mean, I can see using silver coins as currency to buy food and other neccessities in the event of a collapse.
If you want to buy more expensive things, a couple gold coins seems more convenient.
Big silver bars seems more like a play for when demand is expected to outstrip supply for silver and there is a big price squeeze, but the only way to realize that gain is to sell for cash or gold.
burying them in a "mine" and leaving cryptic directions for the grandkids to find them
was just asking how long until AG goes / stays above 34.60...
by "next week." Probably 60 by then as hyperinflation "IMMINENT"
Bob, don't you have some junior goldmining stocks to pimp over on 321gold? Or are you having trouble finding bagholders willing to pay you to pump their stocks?
lmao, Trav
100 oz bars are less depressing to see melted down than shiny silver Eagles.
There's a whole myriad of ways to make 100 oz bars work in your favor.
They currently have some convenience in making a number of maneuvers happen.
That may not be true when silver breaks it's all time high....but there's options still to reconfigure into smaller sizes.
Do some research....the possibilities do exist
I find your comment amusing considering in your original you stated the question
"how long to recover the premium?"
Some will never learn. Mine are in my will.
My brother lost his job and was looking to sell PM's to the local dealer. I smacked him upside the head before he did the deed and bought them from him for a mutually agreed price....right about spot. No taxes. No receipts. No gubmint
Black market bytchez!
Check comparesilverprices.com and you will only have to pay $0.91 per oz over spot for those bars. Free shipping to boot. Just trying to save a phyzz friend some dollars.
Keep stackin
.
Good point.
Nice!
Monaco!
Monica!
Harmonica!
Harmonica = Mouth Organ = Monica
And the circle is complete.
20% increase per month for the next 11 months seems about right.
So sorry, Blythe.
Listen to this Douchbag on the Blowhorn, Jeffery Christian:
http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000070578
Says gold tops at $1740, silver at $34.50.
Any bets otherwise?
So he's basically calling a yearly top for both metals IN JANUARY?
This bastard is as fucking stupid as Jon Nadler --- and just as perpetually wrong and dishonest.
Don't expect anyone on CNBC to ever call him out on this call six months or a year from now, though.
The price of Gold & Silver continue to be manipulated, so their movement is nothing more than TPTB allowing the rise. Until they break the grip of the overlords, the price is just a fiction used to make money through price manipulation. Don't be fooled.
That doesn't mean that you shouldn't have some gold & silver in your investment mix (take delivery) - it is a hedge against hyperinflation and collapse, but don't count your gains on a daily basis as it will drive you crazy. The fluctuations are staged. Buy for the insurance value, not the investment value.
One way or another, this darkness has got to end - The Grateful Dead
I love TPTB - I hope they get nice and fat on all that they are stealing, I hope thier spawn get likewise and thier grand-spawn, the fatter the better, the drippings give a nice smoke flavor when roasted properly on a spit...
mmmmmmmm spit roasted powers that beee........ kinda tastes like slow roasted asshole for those of you who may be wondering....
{well the 99.99% gotta eat somethin'}
edit- Oh and they keep the price of PM's within my fiat budget a little longer, can you imagine how much I'd be throwing if Ag was allowed to rise with real inflation....
Kevin Kerr has some good points on the future of gold price in this CNBC video: http://www.armadamarkets.com/market-info/kevin-kerr-on-markets/
LOOKS LIKE THE FUN IS JUST BEGUN IN THE PRECIOUS METALS MARKETS
As the United States and Europe continue on a path of disinitegration, there is still time to get onself locked and loaded in the precious metals. Some are trying to time the markets by getting in silver at a few bucks lower. Maybe its just wiser to get it while you can.
That being said, here is a link to my newest article. Maybe many of you have already read it... but for those who have not:
THE COMING PARADIGM SHIFT IN SILVER: http://www.financialsense.com/contributors/steve-angelo/the-coming-paradigm-shift-in-silver
Totaly outfuckingstanding article by SRS! Guaranteed to make even the toughest PM dissidents think twice about owning a barbaric relic...
that was the fuckin dumbest article EVER.
A "mass psychology paradigm shift"? AKA bubble? Mania? That's what you guys want?
Fuckin "paradigm shift"? WTF is this, 1997 with this bs jargon?
Right, because the total depletion of a stockpile that has stood for some 4000 years will have no effect on the price. It will remain BELOW the historical price in relation to gold forever because...
Seriously. Can't think of one fucking reason. Silver is only produced at a rate 7 times that of gold, and is used up at best at the same rate, and at worst at a much faster rate. The stockpiles are all but gone.
But hey, fuck the facts. Why don't we all just LISTEN to what trav SAYS, because his assertions are worth more than fact because he got a high score on an IQ test once.
it is currently in an inverse confidence bubble that has been artificially maintained only in modern times' western mindset. He's talking about that bubble bursting. Return to normalcy, not a bubble.
Read it yesterday or early this morning thanks...
I agree with the premise but don't underestimate the resilence of the sheeple to be well programmed sheeple.
Emotional experience in sheep: Predictability of a sudden event lowers subsequent emotional responses
Physiology & Behavior Volume 92, Issue 4, 23 November 2007, Pages 675–683
Abstract
The study of emotions in animals can be approached thanks to a framework derived from appraisal theories developed in cognitive psychology, according to which emotions are triggered when the individual evaluates challenging events. This evaluation is based on a limited number of criteria such as the familiarity and the predictability of an event. If animals are able to experience emotions rather than simply displaying reflex responses to their environment, then their appraisal of events should, as in humans, modulate their emotional responses. We tested this hypothesis by comparing vocalisations, feeding behaviour, and the startle and cardiac responses of lambs submitted to a sudden event that could or could not be predicted. Lambs able to predict the sudden event thanks to a light cue (associative predictability) showed weaker suddenness-induced startle and cardiac responses and spent more time feeding than their counterparts, thus supporting the existence of an emotional experience in these animals. Furthermore, lambs submitted to the regular appearance of the sudden event (temporal regularity) vocalised less and left less unconsumed food deliveries than lambs submitted to random appearances of the sudden event (controls). These results underline that the cognitive abilities of animals should be taken into account when assessing their emotional experiences and more generally their mood states, which are underlying factors of animal welfare.
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0031938407001916
For myself I continue to follow the Silver Bears' advice: Price doesn't matter. Only the physical matters.
just to mention it again -Brent Crude had a $4 move in seconds (FLASH) early this morning . Dont worry ICE investigating.
Clive Maund Posted Sunday, 18 December 2011 || Source: GoldSeek.com
Last week saw a severe breakdown in the Precious Metals sector that is now viewed as marking the start of a bearmarket, and that means the onset of a deflationary episode that is likely to prove more serious than that we witnessed in 2008, because it will involve countries going bust rather than "just" banks and large corporations as was the case in 2008.
http://news.goldseek.com/CliveMaund/1324242000.php
Go Clive!
Clueless deflationists: always expecting to imminently fall off the edge of the flat earth.
I think Clive needs to study some financial and monetary history before running off half-cocked chasing his deflationary unicorns.
Clive changes his price direction predictions weekly so he can always say he was right.
Yet another many-handed economist.
Too bad he's all thumbs when it comes to making a single accurate prognostication.
Yeah, he was talking breakdown to the low 20's on a head and shoulders pattern, later he changed his tune to a bullish flag and this was posted a couple of days ago....
http://www.clivemaund.com/article.php?art_id=67&PHPSESSID=86b7b3cddfc05f...
on a long enough timeline shit just happens - in the meantime you can talk shit if you want .... like us now...
Go, go gold!
The more scandal and thievery we see, the more people are going to GOLD. Gold, the anti-fiat.
Disclosure: I am talking my book!
Buy silver 100 ounce bars and wait for re-monetization of precious metals. Once the U.S. mint re-opens it's doors to seigniorage, send them your 100 ounce silver bar, receive 100 1 oz ASE. Save yourself the extra 7% or so on the buy side and get American Eagles at no additional premium.
http://dailycapitalist.com/2012/01/28/gold-bonds-averting-financial-armageddon/
I love gold.
You think the mint would do this for free? What has been the case historically?
"It was a dangerous journey to the distant Philadelphia Mint or down to the New Orleans Mint. The Southern frontier had few roads and many rivers to cross. Along the way, bandits, highwaymen and Indians were all eager to steal your gold.
The purpose of a mint facility was to take raw gold, nuggets, or gold dust brought in by the miners and convert them 90% fine gold. Then, to make official gold coins, liquid gold was flattened out on rolling mills, made into gold blanks which were then formed into gold blanks.
Each coin blank was struck on a mint press using official United States dies and a gold coin was created that could easily be traded and was instantly accepted anywhere as real money. A miner would deposit his raw gold and return a few weeks later to pick up his finished new gold coins."
http://us-mint.info/Dahlonega_Mint_US_Mint.htm
http://en.wikisource.org/wiki/United_States_Statutes_at_Large/Volume_1/2...
Sec. 14. And be it further enacted,Persons may bring gold and silver bullion, to be coined free of expense; That it shall be lawful for any person or persons to bring to the said mint gold and silver bullion, in order to their being coined; and that the bullion so brought shall be there assayed and coined as speedily as may be after the receipt thereof, and that free of expense to the person or persons by whom the same shall have been brought. And as soon as the said bullion shall have been coined, the person or persons by whom the same shall have been delivered, shall upon demand receive in lieu thereof coins of the sameAct of April 24, 1800, ch. 34.
how the director may exchange coins therefor, deducting half per cent. species of bullion which shall have been so delivered, weight for weight, of the pure gold or pure silver therein contained: Provided nevertheless, That it shall be at the mutual option of the party or parties bringing such bullion, and of the director of the said mint, to make an immediate exchange of coins for standard bullion, with a deduction of one half per cent. from the weight of the pure gold, or pure silver contained in the said bullion, as an indemnification to the mint for the time which will necessarily be required for coining the said bullion, and for the advance which shall have been so made in coins. Duty of Secretary of Treasury herein.And it shall be the duty of the Secretary of the Treasury to furnish the said mint from time to time whenever the state of the treasury will admit thereof, with such sums as may be necessary for effecting the said exchanges, to be replaced as speedily as may be out of the coins which shall have been made of the bullion for which the monies so furnished shall have been exchanged;The half per cent. to constitute a fund, &c. and the said deduction of one half per cent. shall constitute a fund towards defraying the expenses of the said mint.
this is basically the only power the constitution grants Congress re: money... the power to COIN money...
not to 'print'
not to emit 'bills of credit'
TO COIN, as in take a bar and make a coin, certifying its weight and purity.
QE3 as the consequence of Greece and Euro bonds run away market, means stocks will spike as will PMs. But this crazy derivatives market will kill it all one day. If QE3 occurs, we are into market liquidity for two years. Then what...
So according to this Euro is now firmly into international QE and print to infinity will now be planning horizon until it all goes to zero value paper. Then we all wake up!
Hurray to monetisation, for saving the day and killing the future!
Gold!
Buy it high,
Buy it low,
Hoard it,
Cherish it,
Defend it,
And finally; never, never sell it!
Silver did NOT "underperformed".
It got bitch slapped by the fucking PPT.
The ESF (Exchange Stabilization Fund) being put to work.
Fuck YOU timmy G.
Moolah, Moolah, Moolah, Moolah,
Moolah, Moolah, Moolah, Moolah,
When we're through with these poor fellows,
They will holler Moolah, Moo,
Rah! Rah! Rah!
Go Gold!
Booyah, Booyah, Booyah,
Yabba Dabba Dooyah,
Gimme, Gimme, Gimme,
I wanna, wanna, wanna
get some more gold!
But, But, But ... ABC News just announced that the Dow and S&P500 just had their best January in 15 Years ... isn't that what is really important???
any calls on when the next pullback for Ag will be? I sure would love to see spot dip back to the 20s but that's probably wishful thinking
What's the best way to short treasuries?
Buying and holding precious metals.
Yeah........!
Cannonball Comin'!
Group 11 Whirlwind "Bits-Sez"!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LbIajaSH4dg
Got a few more Silver, planning another push with a new truck to replace the old rum rummer lost in the crick.
Truly I grow sick of watching the fight over 33.00 Physical +Spot.
Gold and silver have been winning in return on investment since the beginning of time. That won't change. Right now, the only U. S. coin still being issued into general circulation that has a higher melt value than face value, is the Nickel. The rest are pot metal.
http://georgesblogforum.wordpress.com/
Every nickel has a melt value of $0.057 dollars. Every penny minted prior to 1982 has a melt value of $0.02 dollars. It does take a moment longer to scrutinize your pocket change to seperate the 90% copper pennies from the zinc ones as opposed to just tossing all your nickels in a jar. I do both. When the government changes composition of our coinage those who have been sorting their pocket change like this will benefit.
I was listening to Clark Howard today...came home and searched "Clark Howard Shill" and found this:
Clark Howard's horrible advice on Gold and Silver
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UH0WY6Nj7HM
Clark is a relatively savvy sheep, but he is still a sheep trapped in the fiat status-quo paradigm, as well as another good example of the man who knows the price of everything and the value of nothing.
Kyle Bass says it all
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K-F_QF1XTXI
that's one bass, that never takes the bait
And a big fish, at that...