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Gold Takes Out 200DMA...The Other Way

Tyler Durden's picture




 

"Gold again proves it is not the safe haven many had hoped for, breaking the 200-day moving average, the first time since 2009 and signaling that prices may drop to US$1400/ounce." So begins a post by a "market strategist" from Roubini Global Economics as of less than a week ago. Well, since as the chart below shows gold just took out the 200-DMA, this time in the opposite direction upside, having proven the recent drop was nothing but a buying opportunity as was suggested by the non-Ph.D. community, we assume that using the author's logic, gold has proven that it is in fact a safe haven, and that since it is not going to $1400 it can only go to infinity.... Or is that us taking liberties with our lack of an economics Ph.D. a little too far?

Gold just took out the 200DMA (green dotted line).

Chart: Bloomberg

 

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Tue, 12/20/2011 - 20:48 | 1999481 Squishi
Squishi's picture

POOP HD 

Tue, 12/20/2011 - 20:53 | 1999495 camaro68ss
camaro68ss's picture

Time to buy more gold with my fiat toilet paper

Tue, 12/20/2011 - 21:08 | 1999540 fnord88
fnord88's picture

Yup. The government is a bunch of puppets disguised as clowns. They can keep their clownbux.

Tue, 12/20/2011 - 21:12 | 1999554 I think I need ...
I think I need to buy a gun's picture

this is an overnight deal now,,,,,all these charts mean nothing,,,,,,its going to be revalued overnight

Tue, 12/20/2011 - 21:15 | 1999565 strannick
strannick's picture

Dont forget to give Big Roub a tweet when we hit the new highs, while he's waiting to buy at 14 hun.

Tue, 12/20/2011 - 21:21 | 1999574 DormRoom
DormRoom's picture

don't forget to tweet Roubini an apology when the gold collateral trade unwinds, and the mountain of leverage from the Gold repo trade goes bust, and collapses the gold market.

Tue, 12/20/2011 - 21:40 | 1999641 tmosley
tmosley's picture

You can keep your dumb "market", I'll hold on to the gold, thanks.

Tue, 12/20/2011 - 21:58 | 1999696 nmewn
nmewn's picture

Whoop der it is...lol.

Tue, 12/20/2011 - 22:16 | 1999752 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

don't forget to tweet Roubini an apology when the gold collateral trade unwinds, and the mountain of leverage from the Gold repo trade goes bust, and collapses the gold market.

Gold collateral trade....unwinds....you mean when Bernanke sells USTs and MBS (not to mention corporate equity/debt) back into market?  When the hell is that going to happen?

 the mountain of leverage from the Gold repo trade goes bust....you mean paper gold decouples from physical,,,,but that's when I want to own gold!

Dorm Room, I swear you are just writing these things for fun

Tue, 12/20/2011 - 22:44 | 1999827 strannick
strannick's picture

Yeah, like the yen collapsed when its carry trade was unwound? Or like the dollar has been collapsing now? I think DormRoom meant to write 'explode' instead of 'collapse'.

Roubini -like other radically wrong anti-gold gonzos- will be getting condolences, not apologies.

Tue, 12/20/2011 - 23:24 | 1999934 redpill
redpill's picture

Actually he'll get nothing.  Worse than nothing to be precise.  In fact, suddenly every vacuous talking head on CNBC and Bloomberg will suddenly have total amnesia and entirely forget his name and everything he has ever said, and immediately pretend they haven't had him on their show countless times rhetorically whacking him off while he says the same irrational dumbass things.

Tue, 12/20/2011 - 23:37 | 1999959 trav7777
trav7777's picture

let's not crow about day to day movements to the upside anymore than Joubini crows about them to the downside

Tue, 12/20/2011 - 23:46 | 1999979 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Right, only you get to do that.  Inferior Arabs don't have that right.

Tue, 12/20/2011 - 23:58 | 1999997 Alienated Serf
Alienated Serf's picture

roubini is a persian jew, not arab.

Wed, 12/21/2011 - 00:06 | 2000012 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Don't confuse Trav with such distinctions.  He won't know whether he is superior or inferior.

Definitely don't tell him that Jews and Arabs are about as genetically distinct as the Welsh and the Scots.

Wed, 12/21/2011 - 00:22 | 2000035 bob_dabolina
bob_dabolina's picture

Here's some food for thought. 

Did you know that the emancipation proclamation was actually written by the largest slave owner in Maryland and that slaves on the border states like Maryland were never "freed" 

Also, did you know that Abraham Lincoln not only wanted to free the slaves but his intentions were for them to be shipped back to Africa?

What's really funny about Obama is that he idolizes Obama even using Lincolns bible on his innauguration day. Goes to show how many American history books Obama read.

Wed, 12/21/2011 - 00:27 | 2000045 tmosley
tmosley's picture

You mean the original big government liberal was actually a racist, just like the vast majority of modern day liberals are?

Say it ain't so.

Wed, 12/21/2011 - 00:47 | 2000070 markmotive
markmotive's picture

Fade the risk rally. It was built off Housing Hopium: http://seekingalpha.com/article/315183-3-reasons-to-fade-today-s-rally

Wed, 12/21/2011 - 02:50 | 2000218 wanklord
wanklord's picture

Americans are a bunch of stupid animals

Wed, 12/21/2011 - 04:44 | 2000317 Jendrzejczyk
Jendrzejczyk's picture

Have you been hanging out at my Wall(s)mart again?

Wed, 12/21/2011 - 05:04 | 2000326 pine_marten
pine_marten's picture

Who tramples one another at football matches?

Wed, 12/21/2011 - 11:17 | 2000983 Hugh_Jorgan
Hugh_Jorgan's picture

Sorry, but a "safe haven" is not something that is guaranteed to deliver 25% gains, annually. Why do so many educated people look at PMs the same way they look a a share of AAPL? Gold is a safe haven because it will never be worthless, unlike all the fiat currencies, bonds, warrants and any other BS security mankind dreams up. During the period we are entering, the previous "pillars" of our society are no longer trustworthy so we cannot expect a low level of risk when we invest in them. So if we want to preserve any wealth, we must treat anything of intrinsic value as the investement of choice. Land, food, guns, ammo, PMs and solid family/friendships.

Wed, 12/21/2011 - 00:51 | 2000078 bob_dabolina
bob_dabolina's picture

Anyone who doesn't sacrifice a lamb at the alter for blacks is a racist to you

Wed, 12/21/2011 - 00:31 | 2000048 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

The Civil War was not about slavery.  The War was about shedding blood.  They wanted to issue War Bonds, and guess who did?  The Banking Houses of Morgan and Delano.  They wanted to sell guns and guess who did?  Rockefeller.  Then after the war, pretending to free the slaves, they mandated the constitution to read that corporations were people.  The rest is HIStory.

Wed, 12/21/2011 - 01:58 | 2000163 Freddie
Freddie's picture

Morgan was one of the Rothschilds errand boys.

Wed, 12/21/2011 - 02:07 | 2000171 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

maybe

or maybe he is in the Puritan side of the establishment along with the Pierces, Harrimans, Huntingtons, Russells....

Wed, 12/21/2011 - 03:17 | 2000242 thatguy
thatguy's picture

"When the Jesuits were expelled from every Catholic country in Europe, their only refuge was Russia, Great Britain and the United States. Thousands of them flocked to this country to carry on their war against the Reformation under the banner of U.S. tolerance and freedom of religion for all. Among them were the Morgans, Roosevelts and German Roggenfelders. Roggenfelder was later changed to Rockefeller to make the name sound less German.  Rockefeller was 22 and already wealthy when the Civil War began. He refused to enlist when President Lincoln asked for 75,000 volunteers. Like J. P. Morgan and the father of Teddy Roosevelt, he paid for a substitute to fight for him. He even refused his younger brother the measly sum of $75.00 to meet his enlistment expenses.  His brother had to fight.....Rothschild controlled National City Bank of Cleveland gave him his first loan" But my real response is that everyone is one of Rothschilds errand boys in one way or another......I just remember reading this about John D.  He refused....how times have changed.

Wed, 12/21/2011 - 03:30 | 2000254 longonSpam
longonSpam's picture

I'd love some sourcing for this.

Wed, 12/21/2011 - 02:11 | 2000177 wee-weed up
wee-weed up's picture

“I will say then that I am not, nor ever have been in favor of bringing about in any way the social and political equality of the white and black races – that I am not, nor ever have been in favor of, making voters or jurors of negroes, nor of qualifying them to hold office, nor to intermarry with white people; and I will say in addition to this that there is a physical difference between the white and black races which I believe will forever forbid the two races living together on terms of social and political equality. And inasmuch as they cannot so live, while they do remain together there must be the position of superior and inferior, and I as much as any other man, am in favor of having the superior position assigned to the white race.”

-- Abraham Lincoln

Wed, 12/21/2011 - 03:10 | 2000233 thatguy
thatguy's picture

You mean he idolizes Lincoln,right?

Wed, 12/21/2011 - 10:17 | 2000763 fuu
fuu's picture

Obama idolizes Lincoln for using Lincoln's bible?  That still doesn't make sense.

Wed, 12/21/2011 - 02:29 | 2000192 lemonobrien
lemonobrien's picture

here here, arogance always leads to a swift kick in the nuts. If I was bernank, i'd be in here, talk'n shit, then, pow, drop that bitch a $100, $200. Come back the next day, and bitch slap those feel'n da pain;

don't smite thee.

Tue, 12/20/2011 - 23:38 | 1999946 DormRoom
DormRoom's picture

must read:

IMF Working Paper
Research Department
Velocity of Pledged Collateral
Prepared by Manmohan Singh

 

http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2011/wp11256.pdf

 

I assume gold to be used collateral [1], and highly leveraged. Thus the gold collateral trade.  So when the trade unwinds, gold prices will likely collapse.

 

[1] http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2011/10/06/694891/lch-clearnet-to-accept...

 

yall assume the demand for gold is for long term investing, but I say its demand is from financialization, so actors can leverage.  Thus when the need to leverage dissappears, so will the demand.

 

The same collateral trade is likely being mirrored with the financialization of copper

Tue, 12/20/2011 - 23:39 | 1999962 trav7777
trav7777's picture

gold is what is leveraged, though...people aren't levering other things to buy gold.  You seem to have your facts slightly awry

Tue, 12/20/2011 - 23:44 | 1999975 DormRoom
DormRoom's picture

yes you are right.  I constructed the sentence poorly.  big players are likely buying gold, using it as collateral, so they can leverage up for other trades.  This seems like a short term strategy, and may unwind abruptly.  So I'm just saying be careful out there in goldland.  That's all.

Wed, 12/21/2011 - 00:49 | 2000071 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

That doesn't make any sense.  You don't just leverage gold.  You have to spin a loan from the reserve to leverage anything.  If you loan the gold, then you have leveraged it based on what you do with the assets (cash).  Otherwise, you are holding gold as a reserve.

Wed, 12/21/2011 - 00:40 | 2000059 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Trav, they are leveraging the whole fiat system on the gold reserves of the Central Banks balance sheets.  The only performing asset that is left on the books is gold.  Gold is leveraged ad infinum.

Wed, 12/21/2011 - 07:05 | 2000395 Al Gorerhythm
Al Gorerhythm's picture

715,000,000,000,000 just for sweeteners.

Tue, 12/20/2011 - 21:48 | 1999669 TheMadApe
TheMadApe's picture

So what you are saying, in your own sweet little retarded way, is that the papertards will discount physical again. GREAT. I will add more to my collection while you to continue to live in la la land.

Tue, 12/20/2011 - 21:58 | 1999693 LynRobison
LynRobison's picture

Do you know what to do if gold drops to $1400? Accumulate physical gold!

Do you know what to do if gold drops to $1000?  Accumulate a whole lot more physical gold!

Wed, 12/21/2011 - 03:53 | 2000274 Livingstrong
Livingstrong's picture

If GOLD drops that much, to 1,000 USD, believe me, you will not be able to find coins. I would certainly would not sell my coins at that price. Gold will be horded and kept until prices start to spike up again. I confess, it would be nice if it dropped to 1,000 or less, I would buy tons of more golden beauties (coins)!

Tue, 12/20/2011 - 22:49 | 1999853 Stoploss
Stoploss's picture

"Gold market" that's funny.  Gold is forced into a "market" so it can be controlled. Gold comes in pretty handy when there aren't any "markets" left to restrict it. Try a little pre roman/roman history, instead of porn, just for shits and giggles. You might learn something. Sitting in the dorm room all day.

Wed, 12/21/2011 - 01:19 | 2000107 Whalley World
Whalley World's picture

Dorkroom

Tue, 12/20/2011 - 21:21 | 1999577 tooktheredpill
tooktheredpill's picture

phd or no phd - still only human as Agent Smith would say

Tue, 12/20/2011 - 21:22 | 1999586 tooktheredpill
tooktheredpill's picture

and treasuries are still supposedly a safe haven too - go figure

Tue, 12/20/2011 - 21:33 | 1999619 Money 4 Nothing
Money 4 Nothing's picture

I don't disagree, but.. who does the revaluing? Caution.

Tue, 12/20/2011 - 22:35 | 1999820 Tuco Benedicto ...
Tuco Benedicto Pacifico Juan Maria Ramirez's picture

I'll give you a hint.  They are a gaggle of demons recreated in the dead of winter in December, 1913 in the hallowed halls of the U. S. Congress.

Tue, 12/20/2011 - 22:33 | 1999812 Tuco Benedicto ...
Tuco Benedicto Pacifico Juan Maria Ramirez's picture

That's what Gerald Celente says is coming in 2012.  Go to bed Sunday night.  Wake up Monday morning with fiat Federal Reserve Note devalued by, let's say 40%.  There are haircuts and there are "HAIRCUTS"!  It happened in Argentina in 2011 and it will happen here!

"If it is written on paper, it is worth the paper it is written on."   Pastor Lindsey Williams

Tue, 12/20/2011 - 23:57 | 1999995 seek
seek's picture

Happened in the US in 1933 as well -- 41% devaluation. And we were latecomers, Australia, New Zealand, Japan all did it in '31, and nine major currencies had devalued by the end of '33. This was the whole reason behind the gold call-in and issuance of fiat at a new exchange rate in the US. Now that we're floating, it's even easier to devalue. (And anyone holding gold is even better off.)

Tue, 12/20/2011 - 21:13 | 1999553 russki standart
russki standart's picture

It would not surprise me to see gold go back down to $1400 even after this uptick. In the short term, gold is affected by technical market factors, but the long run fundamental factors have not changed. Aside from certain price targets well up in the 5 figures, I will only sell my gold when some of the following conditions are satisfied:

-Fed. Reserve voluntarily disbands and the successor institution promises to link money printing to hard productivity gains.

-EU breaks up and each member competes to have the hardest currency

-Iran abandons plans to build a nuclear weapon, Syria reforms without bloodshed, Israel recognises Palestine,  NATO agrees to disband, Russia becomes a republic, the US government renounces force and become isolationist.

-Lindsay Lohan renounces sex, drugs and fame, shaves her head and becomes a buddhist nun.

-China becomes a democracy.

-AGW scientists are respected and revered by 80%+ of humanity and help establish an new one world green religion based on mutual suicide pacts to save the darter snail.

Until then, I will hold gold as a hedge against political corruption and stupidity.

Tue, 12/20/2011 - 21:28 | 1999606 Piranhanoia
Piranhanoia's picture

Used to be, but now it can't be ponzied from you without your participation.

Tue, 12/20/2011 - 22:28 | 1999795 russki standart
russki standart's picture

I bought physical and shares back in 1998-2000, and have been through many ups and downs, accumulating on pull backs.  The past 2 weeks are just noise and another opportunity to buy.

Tue, 12/20/2011 - 22:19 | 1999718 nmewn
nmewn's picture

Stop looking at the fiat price. Price means nothing when fiat is worth nothing.

Value is what everyone should look at.

Tue, 12/20/2011 - 22:29 | 1999799 Tuco Benedicto ...
Tuco Benedicto Pacifico Juan Maria Ramirez's picture

"Ace"!  Value a.k.a. purchasing power is all that matters not the nominal price.

Wed, 12/21/2011 - 00:03 | 1999992 jez
jez's picture

Yep. It took me years to realise that, and I've been buying bullion since 2002.

Just the last year or so, I've started measuring savings in ounces rather than currency.

My brain works very slowly indeed.

Tue, 12/20/2011 - 23:41 | 1999967 trav7777
trav7777's picture

I still maintain that gold's price tailwind is primarily driven by fundamentals, i.e., production peaked in 2001

Tue, 12/20/2011 - 23:47 | 1999981 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Right, because we use gold up just like we do oil.

Herp.

Tue, 12/20/2011 - 21:27 | 1999602 buyingsterling
buyingsterling's picture

Roubini sucks establishment cock better than most.

Tue, 12/20/2011 - 22:01 | 1999705 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

For a supposed 'rebel' Roubini sure seems to like the standard (male on male) missionary position. Once an establishment whore, always a whore. If you are invited to speak at all the conferences you just ain't a rebel by any definition I know of.  

Tue, 12/20/2011 - 22:10 | 1999731 nmewn
nmewn's picture

Point-set-match.

Some make their profits on sell side, some on buy side. He makes his from the inside.

Tue, 12/20/2011 - 22:28 | 1999796 Tuco Benedicto ...
Tuco Benedicto Pacifico Juan Maria Ramirez's picture

Double Fault!!!!  Just kidding.  I love your posts!  Tuco

Tue, 12/20/2011 - 22:50 | 1999855 nmewn
nmewn's picture

We'll get em there.

Even if we have to drag them down streets paved with paper...lol.

Wed, 12/21/2011 - 02:04 | 2000169 Freddie
Freddie's picture

I am suprised Kyle Bass even talks to AH Roubini.  I think they were at some conference months ago.  Roubini is a joke.

Tue, 12/20/2011 - 22:16 | 1999754 tekhneek
tekhneek's picture

Oh he's a 'rebel' alright. He 'rebels' government cock right into his whorish 'rebel' mouth.

Tue, 12/20/2011 - 21:01 | 1999523 Chuck Bone
Chuck Bone's picture

I've got a Ph.D: a pimpin' hoes degree.

Tue, 12/20/2011 - 22:35 | 1999822 Floordawg
Floordawg's picture

PHD = Piled Higher and Deeper

Tue, 12/20/2011 - 22:59 | 1999876 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

 

 

PhD = Piled Higher and Deeper

MS = Master of Shit

BS = Bullshit

Wed, 12/21/2011 - 06:08 | 2000353 WhiteNight123129
WhiteNight123129's picture

Please do not put the Phd in Physics working in Physics, the Phd in Mathematics doing actual mathematics research, the Biology Phds the Phds in Computer Science in the same bag as those amorph voodoo pseudo science of economists. Without the real hard science guys we would not be able to type on computers on this blog in the first place. We would be trading derivatives of (real) sheep heards or contracts on tulips (which were really derivatives on tulip back in the Netherlands actually) and would live in abysmall poverty. Funnily while those people have the largest contribution to humanity material comfort they usually reap only a tiny fraction of the rewards. I am just asking for respect for the real PHds.

Tue, 12/20/2011 - 20:50 | 1999487 LeverShort
LeverShort's picture

Time to print Bitchez

Tue, 12/20/2011 - 20:51 | 1999488 hairball48
hairball48's picture

Lack of a PhD is probably your best credential

Wed, 12/21/2011 - 02:52 | 2000222 BorisTheBlade
BorisTheBlade's picture

Depends, if it's physics, then it's ok. However, with monetary mayhem on the streets, having gold stashed somewhere would be worth more than having a PhD regardless. I bet Roubini is trading remainders of his credibility to stack up some more gold, if not, then he is clueless.

Tue, 12/20/2011 - 20:51 | 1999489 TooBearish
TooBearish's picture

Fartmen will be relaoding higher than where he stopped out....hahaahaah

Tue, 12/20/2011 - 22:17 | 1999759 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Doesn't he always?

Tue, 12/20/2011 - 20:53 | 1999496 Eireann go Brach
Eireann go Brach's picture

Roubini the PHD..The "Pfucking Homo Douchebag" as they say over his way in Slovakiakenstein

Tue, 12/20/2011 - 20:54 | 1999498 f16hoser
f16hoser's picture

I'm an idiot. I bought gold.

Tue, 12/20/2011 - 21:08 | 1999541 yabyum
yabyum's picture

  I am a idiot I did not sell. ( do not plan to either, yup)

Tue, 12/20/2011 - 22:04 | 1999712 Potemkin Villag...
Potemkin Village Idiot's picture

Everyone is an idiot... If you're measuring dick size on PAPER transactions in this market (which are FRN's backed by nothing)...

Tue, 12/20/2011 - 22:15 | 1999748 yabyum
yabyum's picture

Funny, my gold has some sort of African Antelope dancing around on it..Oh well a idiot I am:)

Tue, 12/20/2011 - 22:41 | 1999839 Potemkin Villag...
Potemkin Village Idiot's picture

@yabyum

Look closely & realize that my last comment was a compliment...

Wed, 12/21/2011 - 09:15 | 2000559 yabyum
yabyum's picture

my bad!

Tue, 12/20/2011 - 22:14 | 1999747 Top_Kill
Top_Kill's picture

My name is Bill and I have been an idiot for 834 days. First purchase at $990.

Tue, 12/20/2011 - 22:18 | 1999760 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Hi Bill

Tue, 12/20/2011 - 22:29 | 1999800 LongBalls
LongBalls's picture

Hi Bill!

Tue, 12/20/2011 - 23:19 | 1999924 nmewn
nmewn's picture

Hi Bill...hicccup ;-)

Wed, 12/21/2011 - 00:20 | 2000034 Esso
Esso's picture

I bought between $740 and $904, but didn't know you couldn't eat the stuff until I came here.

Damn, I'm hungry.

Wed, 12/21/2011 - 01:30 | 2000122 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Hi Bill!  And I have been an idiot for over 8000 days.  First purchase was +/- $500 (been a long time).  Then it went down, but I just kept buying more.  Then it went up and I kept buying more.  Then it went up more, I bought more.

I bought more last week. I am an idiot.

Wed, 12/21/2011 - 02:21 | 2000187 TN Jed
TN Jed's picture

Keep coming back.  It works if you work it.

Tue, 12/20/2011 - 20:54 | 1999501 fonzanoon
fonzanoon's picture

why is it a big deal if it goes to $1,400. The fact that someone is willing to pay $1,400 for an ounce of something still says it all. I hope it does go there so I can buy more.

Tue, 12/20/2011 - 22:20 | 1999769 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

It isn't a big deal.  No price is.  They could tell me it is worth one dollar and I wouldn't care.  Ok I would care because I would buy it on credit like the great Chumba.

Tue, 12/20/2011 - 20:54 | 1999502 Dasa Slooofoot
Dasa Slooofoot's picture

PhD=I have free time and am willing to take on student loan debt.

Tue, 12/20/2011 - 23:13 | 1999914 Captain Kink
Captain Kink's picture

or, PhD=I earned a masters at night school and then spent another 3 years working my ass off at the expense of family and social life because I wanted to better my skills and broaden the framework i use to understand the shit that impacts my life and that of my clients....  Not every Phd is an idoit. Insecure?

Wed, 12/21/2011 - 00:14 | 2000023 SillySalesmanQu...
SillySalesmanQuestion's picture

PHD....hmmmm... I take that to be a Pin Head Dimwit...?

Wed, 12/21/2011 - 01:56 | 2000161 longonSpam
longonSpam's picture

Classic American embrace of ignorance, lovely. Theoretically yeah it should be free or at least cheap enough to work your way through school but debt isn't an option, never was. If you can't pay for it you don't get to have it. That is like the reason there's money, right? Debt is slavery, worse than not going to school in the first place and not everyone gets to go to college anyway. A high school diploma should be sufficient to live in the middle class in America even now even though its not, obviously. America, 300 million 'totally unique rugged individuals embracing their manifest destiny', yeah that's nice. Objectivism at its finest, shockingly this whole country is allergic to math.. Whoda figured?

Wed, 12/21/2011 - 04:15 | 2000292 HoofHearted
HoofHearted's picture

A high school degree isn't what it used to be, but then again neither is a bachelor. My doctorate is in math, and I got my master degree in economics in, wait for it...Germany. So I have the Austrian bent and see that a huge swath of the people doing the math for economics are completely useless idiots. I was at a conference this weekend and heard several things that started, "Assume a neoKeynesian setup..." and I usually started looking for something else to read. Now they had perfectly lovely results, but their initial setup made me think of GIGO.

Luckily I had a Swiss banker friend and a London insurance guy who both have rejected all this crap. We enjoyed the hell out of laughing at most of the twits who assume that Keynes had it all, and that people will act in the framework that Keynes constructed. I mean Keynesianism once worked, but that was with the Biblical Joseph. Unfortunately none of the bozos in the crony political positions has even a fraction of the wisdom that Joseph did. I can't remember whose quote it was, but in the FT last Friday someone commented that they know what needs to be done, but they don't know how to do what needs to be done and still get re-elected. And that more or less says it all. We are all government whores who will vote for whomever gives us the most cheese. And so our pimps continue to give us just enough to keep us whoring for them...and that will continue until all the cheese is gone.

Wed, 12/21/2011 - 05:22 | 2000335 longonSpam
longonSpam's picture

Nothing is what it used to be, sad but true. I still can't get to the place where all this bullshit is any more dire than everything that has come before. The difference is availability of mostly bad information in the hands of way too many without the tools necessary to decipher it. Never have so many had so much knowledge and so little wisdom. I have an education, doctorate in anthropology, and I know that doesn't qualify me in any way to try to be profound or ornate in Macroeconomics. What I can do is understand that nobody ever truly has perspective in the moment and take the minuscule amount of information available and make some sense of it using different contexts. Times like these I actually wish I was speaking French or any other Latin language just because I'd really prefer using a language with better structure that wasn't so easy to propagandize and butcher and always seems to fall into arguments of definition that don't mean anything. English really is a nightmare of a language to have complex discussions in.

The only perspective I have in interpreting any of this is the Adam Smith I read 20 years ago. Personally I think all of that is still applicable, but that & $5 will buy a cup of coffee these days. Even if I did have a background in economics I have no desire whatsoever to try to get into these endless pissing contests anyway. Not my place and not my problem, besides there's about 10,000,000 too many chiefs and zero indians. I'll be the indian, that's just fine by me. It's just the next chapter in a story that doesn't end. If it goes to nuclear war that still isn't the end, if the Armageddon asteroid hits that isn't the end either. Its just a story.

Wed, 12/21/2011 - 09:22 | 2000584 Pope Clement
Pope Clement's picture

Longon-Your thought on language structure and thinking is interesting but maybe French and the romance langs are not the best bet but rather the inflected langs such as German and the Slavic languages?

Thu, 12/22/2011 - 01:49 | 2003548 longonSpam
longonSpam's picture

Don't know enough about them to really have an opinion.. No real desire to learn German to be honest, the next language I want to learn is Cantonese for professional reasons. Been putting it off for years, the prospect is so daunting, eventually I'm going to have to suck it up & just do it with that Rosetta Stone stuff or some classes if it doesn't take. But any single root language would be better than the mishmash which is English, especially modern American English. What a terrible way to communicate this is.

Tue, 12/20/2011 - 20:55 | 1999503 ruffian
ruffian's picture

It's comex/lbma reference price is going to zero possibly taking physical down part of the way with it when contracts are "cash settled"..........trade............. long physical gold short paper gold via GLL

Tue, 12/20/2011 - 20:55 | 1999504 Handyman
Handyman's picture

Maybe not safe for the paperboyz. I'll stick to the heavy stuff.

Tue, 12/20/2011 - 20:58 | 1999508 RobD
RobD's picture

I went to the Coin Shop this afternoon to buy some 1oz silver bars for stocking stuffers and they had none. But there is no shortage lol.

Tue, 12/20/2011 - 21:26 | 1999597 Talleyrand
Talleyrand's picture

Price takes a dip and the goods go in the safe. Price back up and all the shiny stuff is back in the display counter.

I wish I knew a dumb coin dealer.

Tue, 12/20/2011 - 21:56 | 1999689 CrockettAlmanac.com
CrockettAlmanac.com's picture

There's a difference between a dealer not wishing to sell at spot and a dealer being out of product. If a dealer has stock a deal can be made but if he has none then he has none.

Tue, 12/20/2011 - 22:06 | 1999721 Potemkin Villag...
Potemkin Village Idiot's picture

...and so it goes

Tue, 12/20/2011 - 22:24 | 1999779 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

I went to a new shop and the guy wanted way over spot.  I smiled and paid rounding up to the higher even 0.

Tue, 12/20/2011 - 22:24 | 1999783 Tuco Benedicto ...
Tuco Benedicto Pacifico Juan Maria Ramirez's picture

Small dealers never sell at spot.  On rare occasions very large dealers will sell maybe 90% or war nickels at or near spot but even this is rare.

Tue, 12/20/2011 - 22:19 | 1999766 Angus McHugepenis
Angus McHugepenis's picture

How many silver Maple Leafs would you like? No problem getting them from "dumb coin dealers" here.

Tue, 12/20/2011 - 22:22 | 1999775 Tuco Benedicto ...
Tuco Benedicto Pacifico Juan Maria Ramirez's picture

This is true for small local coin dealers because they do not hedge.  The big boys hedge and make their money on the spread. 

There are not too many dumb coin dealers.  Those that couldn't make it now work for government.

Tue, 12/20/2011 - 22:33 | 1999814 Angus McHugepenis
Angus McHugepenis's picture

True about the small coin dealers. Personally, I don't have available toilet paper to pay cash for PM buys in the thousands... hence I must rely on my small coin dealers to provide.

Oh, and I can still get my hands on a shitload of Wolf, Grizzly, and Cougar maple leafs for a mere $1-2 above the regular maple price.

Tue, 12/20/2011 - 22:19 | 1999764 Tuco Benedicto ...
Tuco Benedicto Pacifico Juan Maria Ramirez's picture

When metals start to become more difficult to find it is the one ounce gold krugerrands that become scarce first.  Right now they are scarce! 

Tue, 12/20/2011 - 21:02 | 1999526 Thomas Jefferson
Thomas Jefferson's picture

Gold bitchez.  All has been.  Always will be.

Tue, 12/20/2011 - 21:03 | 1999528 israhole
israhole's picture

I would rather hold gold than judefetzen.

Tue, 12/20/2011 - 21:43 | 1999650 buyingsterling
buyingsterling's picture

Your statement implies that ass-licking whore Terry Bransted's pimp is probably jewish, since Paul presents an existential threat to the bankers' ongoing ass rape fiat party. I'm in a rotten mood today thanks to FUCKHEAD Terry Bransted, doing what we all expected, and what the TPTB do so well: dropping their abundant drawers and spewing shit all over honorable men and women.

I'll change my mind about Paul running third party If the GOP keeps this up. I'll work for and contribute to any third party effort that denies them the presidency if they keep shitting on Paul. They're making their own shit-filled bed, I want to see them sleep in it.

Wed, 12/21/2011 - 00:32 | 2000051 Esso
Esso's picture

Saw this post at Freedom4um, can't vouch for it, but it sounds about right...

There's another reason that nobody is talking about.

In 1991, Eric Branstad, the son of Gov. Terry Branstad, got liquored up one night, and drove through a campground with the family van, and killed 2 people in their tents as they slept.

A few weeks before his trial was supposed to start, he was busted again for DUI.

Terry Branstad was a terrible governor, and an even worse parent. More to the point, Branstad is paying back the powers that be for his son's freedom. You see, his son Eric never spent a day in jail. Never went to prison. Never did anything other than pay a bunch of fines, which of course was pawned off on the Iowa taxpayers.

This, is why Branstad is saying these things. He's a vile corrupt piece of shit that needed to be impeached when his son got a pass. Branstad has used his political influence to betray the people of Iowa, and is now betraying the people of America. All because Bob "Viagra" Dole is endorsing Mittens Romney.

It is far past time for the people to recall this man, and re-open the case against his son. There is no justice because his son walked free, while two people's bodies rot in the ground.

Tue, 12/20/2011 - 21:48 | 1999668 tmosley
tmosley's picture

I would rather hold gold than any form of fiat, no matter what the race of the issuers.

Tue, 12/20/2011 - 21:04 | 1999531 Misean
Misean's picture

Roubini got his fame and fortune becoming a housing bear after he lost his shirt at the very top of the housing bubble. Why does anyone listen to him? I know why he has a platform...

Tue, 12/20/2011 - 22:08 | 1999728 Potemkin Villag...
Potemkin Village Idiot's picture

well... he has all those vaginas on the wall of his apartment... so I guess he has that going for him...

Tue, 12/20/2011 - 22:26 | 1999791 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Goled is een eh babble

Tue, 12/20/2011 - 22:47 | 1999851 Potemkin Villag...
Potemkin Village Idiot's picture

@LH

See... that's just the thing... Back in the early "naughts", I was listening to Roubini very closely & thought he was very astute for calling out the housing bubble years before it peaked...

Now... afterwards... (with his constant reference to 'BAUBLES')... I realize he's just another idiot shill for the value of FRN's...

Tue, 12/20/2011 - 21:09 | 1999545 SHEEPFUKKER
SHEEPFUKKER's picture

Roubini can rehypothecate this bitchez!!!

Tue, 12/20/2011 - 22:27 | 1999792 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

He wishes

Tue, 12/20/2011 - 21:11 | 1999549 Lost Wages
Lost Wages's picture

When is the next dollar squeeze? I was hoping silver would test $26 territory before I went "all-in." Put in a 3rd of my money last week.

Tue, 12/20/2011 - 21:14 | 1999563 medicalstudent
medicalstudent's picture

wait for it.

Tue, 12/20/2011 - 21:37 | 1999631 dumpster
dumpster's picture

like waiting for the next bus that may never come .

its cold and blistery .. you have no coat.  

wait for 26 .. lol

the silver is in big demand .. the shills are selling the paper .

 

Wed, 12/21/2011 - 01:37 | 2000133 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

+ 1

Don't wait.  Buy if you have the fiats.  Physical only.  Never sell (ex. emergency), GIVE it away.

Tue, 12/20/2011 - 21:13 | 1999556 LookingWithAmazement
LookingWithAmazement's picture

That Comex/LBMA crash, are they gonna come or not? Some folks say or imply so. Any wise opinions here?

http://bit.ly/sQPoES

Tue, 12/20/2011 - 22:30 | 1999804 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

It doesn't matter what they do when futures traders get shanked by rehypothecating banking houses.  They system is past broken- it no longer exists.  Trading with these fuckers is like playing in a sandbox with G.I. Joes and telling your older brother you are running recon missions in Af/Pak.

Tue, 12/20/2011 - 21:19 | 1999572 navy62802
navy62802's picture

Man, do you remember the articles from just a couple of days ago? The gold bears really came out of hibernation, then. They have quickly retreated back into hibernation, unfortunately. I want the barbaric relic to retreat to $500 so I can buy a couple of pounds before it skyrockets again.

Tue, 12/20/2011 - 22:15 | 1999750 Tuco Benedicto ...
Tuco Benedicto Pacifico Juan Maria Ramirez's picture

I have checked the charts.  There is very good long term support at $522.  :)

Tue, 12/20/2011 - 22:21 | 1999773 navy62802
navy62802's picture

Yeah, that would work for me. I could get a couple of pounds at that price.

Tue, 12/20/2011 - 21:20 | 1999576 Deep
Deep's picture

I said it 2 months ago, and again 2 weeks ago, Gold and silver topped out. Yes i was bullish the PM's til about 2-3 months ago, I was just like everyone here, my target for gold was 3000-4000 and silver was 100-125

I now think they topped. And yes Tyler, Gold doesn't go down everyday, when it hits 1400, are you gonna eat your words?

Now junk away everyone, because as much as I love this site and best site on web, rarely is their a discussion here when someone else has an opposing view. And no I am not bullish, bearish as can be, we will test the March 09 lows, but I just think gold and silver have topped out.

Tyler just post a 20yr chart of gold, PARABOLIC. Enough said, i dont care what any chart is showing,oil, gold, pixie dust, but when i see a chart like that i know it is time to get out

Tue, 12/20/2011 - 21:24 | 1999593 Thomas Jefferson
Thomas Jefferson's picture

You want a parabolic chart?  Take a look at the Fed's balance sheet. LMAO.

Tue, 12/20/2011 - 21:31 | 1999616 Deep
Deep's picture

ya i have. and if gold and silver can only manage to get to where they are now with that chart, then you gold bugs have problems.

I know everyone here thinks they are gonna print forever, THEY ARE NOT. I still am on the fence about QE3. everyone here thinks these guys are stupid, they are not, corrupt yes, stupid i dont think so. They will eventually stop printing, they might have already. We will be going thru a paiful deleveraging, 10-15 YEARS, and some point taxes on the rich will rise a lot, and consumption taxes will be added, and so on. We will get thru it, painful, hell ya, SP will get to march 09 lows or lower,

BUT THE WORLD WILL NOT END

Tue, 12/20/2011 - 21:37 | 1999630 fonzanoon
fonzanoon's picture

No one is saying the world is going to end. No one is saying they are stupid. They are boxed in. They have two bad choices. Deflation or inflation. As long as poloticians want to get re-elected they will choose inflation. They can either let massive deflation run it's course or inflate our way out. Nobody knows we will find out

Tue, 12/20/2011 - 21:41 | 1999646 dolph9
dolph9's picture

The world did not end in the late 70s either, when gold when parabolic.  Only very high interest rates (which are next to impossible now) saved the dollar.

You have the mistaken impression that gold people want the end of the world.  You are wrong.  What we anticipate is the end of our current financial system and are protecting ourselves accordingly.  To watch the gold price go up, as it should in these circumstances, is icing on the cake.

You may not like the fact that gold and silver are honest and natural forms of money.  You may not like the fact that our current digital fiat nightmare is the result of fraud and manipulation at the highest levels of central banking and government.  But those are the facts.

Complaining about this gold bull market is like complaining about gravity or death!  Nobody wants to hear it, and for good reason.

Wed, 12/21/2011 - 04:17 | 2000293 Ignatius
Ignatius's picture

"You may not like the fact that gold and silver are honest and natural forms of money." -- dolph9

Physical gold derives its real value as a 'wealth reserve asset' more than the fact that it can act as transactional 'money'.  In fact, calling it 'money' distracts from its best and highest use which is as the preferred store of value.  No matter what we understand -- or think we understand about gold -- the market will determine gold's value, not off-hand opinions such as Roubini's.  Gold is the best store of value precisely because it has few un-substitutable functions, which fortunately means that it can be hoarded as savings without negatively impacting industrial commerce (think of the impact of hoarding oil, as an example).

Gold is simply the most internationally recognized and liquid wealth reserve asset.  The fact that it is mid-rise of a massive re-pricing is what currently makes it a great investment vehicle.  It's investment value will wane at a point, but not its wealth preservation (savings) characteristics.

 

Tue, 12/20/2011 - 21:44 | 1999658 jomama
jomama's picture

for the record, 'the world' is not going to notice if the parasitic humans on its surface wind up destroying themselves. 

Tue, 12/20/2011 - 22:06 | 1999719 CrockettAlmanac.com
CrockettAlmanac.com's picture

Speak for yourself, louse.

Tue, 12/20/2011 - 22:12 | 1999732 Tuco Benedicto ...
Tuco Benedicto Pacifico Juan Maria Ramirez's picture

Dear Deep, in the last 98 years  through its actions the privately held federal reserve has devalued the U. S. Federal Reserve note by a average of one percentage point per year.  Do you really think they are going to stop now?!?  Would you consider this a trend or just noise?:)

I think the deflationists and inflationists are both correct.  I see a virulent relatively brief deflationary worldwide spiral as the $1,500,000,000,000,000.00 in worldwide derivatives unwind followed by money printing like the world has never seen.

In closing Mr. Deep I appreciate your right to express your opinions and I thank God we still have a sliver of freedom left in our great country!

"Resistance to tyrants is obedience to God."   --Thomas Jefferson

Wed, 12/21/2011 - 00:02 | 2000006 trav7777
trav7777's picture

well...I see no way the credit system doesn't collapse without printing.  The japs have proven this for 20 years.

And, at any rate, gold production peaked...economic decline means further production decline.  Energy scarcity means reduced production and certainly an expectation of dramatically less production into the distant future.  Gold mining is energy expensive.

Tue, 12/20/2011 - 21:27 | 1999603 fonzanoon
fonzanoon's picture

Half the people on here think deflation is going to take out everything in sight including gold. The other half agree but think the inflationary response will send it to the moon. I think the bigger question is will people cry uncle and sell when it hits 1,200 and silver hits 20 bucks right before they unleash inflationary hell.

Tue, 12/20/2011 - 22:22 | 1999776 CrockettAlmanac.com
CrockettAlmanac.com's picture

It's called "climbing the wall of worry."

Tue, 12/20/2011 - 21:32 | 1999614 tekhneek
tekhneek's picture

I can respect and value your opinion. I just don't think that they're going to stop printing money, do you? As a matter of fact, they never stopped, so being curious what is your position for and reasoning from going bull to bear all in what, 4 months?

Were you bearish 'til it hit $1900? $1800? or what triggered you switching? Gold is basically the inflation hedge. I don't know about you but I think we're headed for some nasty deflation in some things and some pretty nasty inflation in others.

I can understand if you're frustrated from buying higher than it's trading today but all I see in your post is, from what I'm reading, an emotional response to a rigged market that pisses off even the most seasoned investors...

Basically what I'm saying is:

  • Why do you think they topped? 
  • also: Gold hasn't even hit it's inflation adjusted high yet, nor has silver, would you agree that they will possibly re-test those historic highs and possibly go past them? Or are you saying without a doubt gold will trade no higher than $1600 range?

Just want to know before I junk you. :P

Tue, 12/20/2011 - 21:38 | 1999635 jomama
jomama's picture

I can respect and value your opinion. I just don't think that they're going to stop printing moneydo you? 

 

icwutudidthar

Tue, 12/20/2011 - 21:42 | 1999648 tekhneek
tekhneek's picture

lulz.

For real though... people need to understand money is money and paper is paper. 

I mean how else can it be said? "Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value ---- zero." -Voltaire

Any other quotes I'm missing? I'm sure there's a ton.

Tue, 12/20/2011 - 21:45 | 1999659 fonzanoon
fonzanoon's picture

My favorite quote was on here the other day "Your lack of preperation does not constitute and emergency on my part".

Tue, 12/20/2011 - 21:43 | 1999654 Deep
Deep's picture

Was bullish from 700-til it hit 1900, then when it hit 1900 crashed to 1600 was still bullish, and then when it rallied to 1800 was still bullish, but when it failed their and headed south, thats when i turned. I am a trader, i change gears. I have now changed gears, as I mentioned, i will not short it, actaully shorted silver a few days ago for nice profit, and coverd a few days ago, anyways i will not short them.

And all this talk of it being manipulated. do you have proof, or just the ramblings of all the gold bugs. sorry sister, when gold has gone up at a 20% clip for last 11 years, that aint manipulation. Sorry.

All this inflation adjusted high bullshit, all a nice story to get people interested. Now why are you bullish gold, because they are gonna print forvever. I already posted my view on that above.

As I said above, i dont care what a compnay does, or what the product is, when i see a long-term chart like that, 20yr on gold, i know it's time to get out. Good luck to all you guys buying up here, cause my target is 1100-1200 by summer.

Tue, 12/20/2011 - 21:49 | 1999672 fonzanoon
fonzanoon's picture

You are a trader speaking to a bunch of buy and holders. You have to see that difference to understand why you get so much resistance. Who gives a shit if it goes to 1100? You do because you are trading. I don't because I am holding it. Go ahead and spew some fast money bullshit line about trading but you may lose your ass or make money. Who cares?

As for inflation you are a mess. Why do they strip out food and energy? Why have they changed the metrics on how they measure it? Wake up.

Tue, 12/20/2011 - 22:03 | 1999711 Deep
Deep's picture

First of all they dont strip out food and energy, both are reported. They strip out food and energy on the core CPI yes. I ain't denying their is inflation, it's commodity inflation, not real inflation. To get real inflation, wages would also have to be rising at a fast clip, they are not. Prices on many things are going down, houses, cars, electronics ect ect. Yes prices are rising in things to do with energy, cause they printed 1 trillion dollars, but that was not OVERALL inflation.

In the Western World, we can not have true inflation because the workers have no power to demand higher wages, thus we will not have inflation. We had a short term blip in COMMODITY inflation, not real inflation. We are already defalting agian. The Bond market sees this, what the BOND market is stupid, i dont think so.

I know know, the currency is gonna collapse, my call aint gonna happen. Only two ways to get hyperinflation, wages also rising at a fast clip, AIN"T GONNA HAPPEN, or a currency collapse. My call aint gonna happen.

Tue, 12/20/2011 - 22:14 | 1999744 fonzanoon
fonzanoon's picture

You are correct. It is stagflation right now with a side of deflation. By right now I mean since June 30th when "official" qe2 stopped. As tax revenues continue to decrease via higher true unemplyment and underemployment we will continue to have defecit funding issues. They will keep coming up with stimulus program after stimulus program until one sunny day you wake up and the rest of the world lost confidence in your ability to pay our debts and it is game over for the currency. It happens just like that. It could anyway. You can choose to acknowledge this or ignore it.

 

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