Gold Takes Out 200DMA...The Other Way

Tyler Durden's picture

"Gold again proves it is not the safe haven many had hoped for, breaking the 200-day moving average, the first time since 2009 and signaling that prices may drop to US$1400/ounce." So begins a post by a "market strategist" from Roubini Global Economics as of less than a week ago. Well, since as the chart below shows gold just took out the 200-DMA, this time in the opposite direction upside, having proven the recent drop was nothing but a buying opportunity as was suggested by the non-Ph.D. community, we assume that using the author's logic, gold has proven that it is in fact a safe haven, and that since it is not going to $1400 it can only go to infinity.... Or is that us taking liberties with our lack of an economics Ph.D. a little too far?

Gold just took out the 200DMA (green dotted line).

Chart: Bloomberg

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Talleyrand's picture

Price takes a dip and the goods go in the safe. Price back up and all the shiny stuff is back in the display counter.

I wish I knew a dumb coin dealer.

CrockettAlmanac.com's picture

There's a difference between a dealer not wishing to sell at spot and a dealer being out of product. If a dealer has stock a deal can be made but if he has none then he has none.

Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

I went to a new shop and the guy wanted way over spot.  I smiled and paid rounding up to the higher even 0.

Tuco Benedicto Pacifico Juan Maria Ramirez's picture

Small dealers never sell at spot.  On rare occasions very large dealers will sell maybe 90% or war nickels at or near spot but even this is rare.

Angus McHugepenis's picture

How many silver Maple Leafs would you like? No problem getting them from "dumb coin dealers" here.

Tuco Benedicto Pacifico Juan Maria Ramirez's picture

This is true for small local coin dealers because they do not hedge.  The big boys hedge and make their money on the spread. 

There are not too many dumb coin dealers.  Those that couldn't make it now work for government.

Angus McHugepenis's picture

True about the small coin dealers. Personally, I don't have available toilet paper to pay cash for PM buys in the thousands... hence I must rely on my small coin dealers to provide.

Oh, and I can still get my hands on a shitload of Wolf, Grizzly, and Cougar maple leafs for a mere $1-2 above the regular maple price.

Tuco Benedicto Pacifico Juan Maria Ramirez's picture

When metals start to become more difficult to find it is the one ounce gold krugerrands that become scarce first.  Right now they are scarce! 

Thomas Jefferson's picture

Gold bitchez.  All has been.  Always will be.

israhole's picture

I would rather hold gold than judefetzen.

buyingsterling's picture

Your statement implies that ass-licking whore Terry Bransted's pimp is probably jewish, since Paul presents an existential threat to the bankers' ongoing ass rape fiat party. I'm in a rotten mood today thanks to FUCKHEAD Terry Bransted, doing what we all expected, and what the TPTB do so well: dropping their abundant drawers and spewing shit all over honorable men and women.

I'll change my mind about Paul running third party If the GOP keeps this up. I'll work for and contribute to any third party effort that denies them the presidency if they keep shitting on Paul. They're making their own shit-filled bed, I want to see them sleep in it.

Esso's picture

Saw this post at Freedom4um, can't vouch for it, but it sounds about right...

There's another reason that nobody is talking about.

In 1991, Eric Branstad, the son of Gov. Terry Branstad, got liquored up one night, and drove through a campground with the family van, and killed 2 people in their tents as they slept.

A few weeks before his trial was supposed to start, he was busted again for DUI.

Terry Branstad was a terrible governor, and an even worse parent. More to the point, Branstad is paying back the powers that be for his son's freedom. You see, his son Eric never spent a day in jail. Never went to prison. Never did anything other than pay a bunch of fines, which of course was pawned off on the Iowa taxpayers.

This, is why Branstad is saying these things. He's a vile corrupt piece of shit that needed to be impeached when his son got a pass. Branstad has used his political influence to betray the people of Iowa, and is now betraying the people of America. All because Bob "Viagra" Dole is endorsing Mittens Romney.

It is far past time for the people to recall this man, and re-open the case against his son. There is no justice because his son walked free, while two people's bodies rot in the ground.

tmosley's picture

I would rather hold gold than any form of fiat, no matter what the race of the issuers.

Misean's picture

Roubini got his fame and fortune becoming a housing bear after he lost his shirt at the very top of the housing bubble. Why does anyone listen to him? I know why he has a platform...

Potemkin Village Idiot's picture

well... he has all those vaginas on the wall of his apartment... so I guess he has that going for him...

Potemkin Village Idiot's picture

@LH

See... that's just the thing... Back in the early "naughts", I was listening to Roubini very closely & thought he was very astute for calling out the housing bubble years before it peaked...

Now... afterwards... (with his constant reference to 'BAUBLES')... I realize he's just another idiot shill for the value of FRN's...

SHEEPFUKKER's picture

Roubini can rehypothecate this bitchez!!!

Lost Wages's picture

When is the next dollar squeeze? I was hoping silver would test $26 territory before I went "all-in." Put in a 3rd of my money last week.

dumpster's picture

like waiting for the next bus that may never come .

its cold and blistery .. you have no coat.  

wait for 26 .. lol

the silver is in big demand .. the shills are selling the paper .

 

DoChenRollingBearing's picture

+ 1

Don't wait.  Buy if you have the fiats.  Physical only.  Never sell (ex. emergency), GIVE it away.

LookingWithAmazement's picture

That Comex/LBMA crash, are they gonna come or not? Some folks say or imply so. Any wise opinions here?

http://bit.ly/sQPoES

Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

It doesn't matter what they do when futures traders get shanked by rehypothecating banking houses.  They system is past broken- it no longer exists.  Trading with these fuckers is like playing in a sandbox with G.I. Joes and telling your older brother you are running recon missions in Af/Pak.

navy62802's picture

Man, do you remember the articles from just a couple of days ago? The gold bears really came out of hibernation, then. They have quickly retreated back into hibernation, unfortunately. I want the barbaric relic to retreat to $500 so I can buy a couple of pounds before it skyrockets again.

Tuco Benedicto Pacifico Juan Maria Ramirez's picture

I have checked the charts.  There is very good long term support at $522.  :)

navy62802's picture

Yeah, that would work for me. I could get a couple of pounds at that price.

Deep's picture

I said it 2 months ago, and again 2 weeks ago, Gold and silver topped out. Yes i was bullish the PM's til about 2-3 months ago, I was just like everyone here, my target for gold was 3000-4000 and silver was 100-125

I now think they topped. And yes Tyler, Gold doesn't go down everyday, when it hits 1400, are you gonna eat your words?

Now junk away everyone, because as much as I love this site and best site on web, rarely is their a discussion here when someone else has an opposing view. And no I am not bullish, bearish as can be, we will test the March 09 lows, but I just think gold and silver have topped out.

Tyler just post a 20yr chart of gold, PARABOLIC. Enough said, i dont care what any chart is showing,oil, gold, pixie dust, but when i see a chart like that i know it is time to get out

Thomas Jefferson's picture

You want a parabolic chart?  Take a look at the Fed's balance sheet. LMAO.

Deep's picture

ya i have. and if gold and silver can only manage to get to where they are now with that chart, then you gold bugs have problems.

I know everyone here thinks they are gonna print forever, THEY ARE NOT. I still am on the fence about QE3. everyone here thinks these guys are stupid, they are not, corrupt yes, stupid i dont think so. They will eventually stop printing, they might have already. We will be going thru a paiful deleveraging, 10-15 YEARS, and some point taxes on the rich will rise a lot, and consumption taxes will be added, and so on. We will get thru it, painful, hell ya, SP will get to march 09 lows or lower,

BUT THE WORLD WILL NOT END

fonzanoon's picture

No one is saying the world is going to end. No one is saying they are stupid. They are boxed in. They have two bad choices. Deflation or inflation. As long as poloticians want to get re-elected they will choose inflation. They can either let massive deflation run it's course or inflate our way out. Nobody knows we will find out

dolph9's picture

The world did not end in the late 70s either, when gold when parabolic.  Only very high interest rates (which are next to impossible now) saved the dollar.

You have the mistaken impression that gold people want the end of the world.  You are wrong.  What we anticipate is the end of our current financial system and are protecting ourselves accordingly.  To watch the gold price go up, as it should in these circumstances, is icing on the cake.

You may not like the fact that gold and silver are honest and natural forms of money.  You may not like the fact that our current digital fiat nightmare is the result of fraud and manipulation at the highest levels of central banking and government.  But those are the facts.

Complaining about this gold bull market is like complaining about gravity or death!  Nobody wants to hear it, and for good reason.

Ignatius's picture

"You may not like the fact that gold and silver are honest and natural forms of money." -- dolph9

Physical gold derives its real value as a 'wealth reserve asset' more than the fact that it can act as transactional 'money'.  In fact, calling it 'money' distracts from its best and highest use which is as the preferred store of value.  No matter what we understand -- or think we understand about gold -- the market will determine gold's value, not off-hand opinions such as Roubini's.  Gold is the best store of value precisely because it has few un-substitutable functions, which fortunately means that it can be hoarded as savings without negatively impacting industrial commerce (think of the impact of hoarding oil, as an example).

Gold is simply the most internationally recognized and liquid wealth reserve asset.  The fact that it is mid-rise of a massive re-pricing is what currently makes it a great investment vehicle.  It's investment value will wane at a point, but not its wealth preservation (savings) characteristics.

 

jomama's picture

for the record, 'the world' is not going to notice if the parasitic humans on its surface wind up destroying themselves. 

Tuco Benedicto Pacifico Juan Maria Ramirez's picture

Dear Deep, in the last 98 years  through its actions the privately held federal reserve has devalued the U. S. Federal Reserve note by a average of one percentage point per year.  Do you really think they are going to stop now?!?  Would you consider this a trend or just noise?:)

I think the deflationists and inflationists are both correct.  I see a virulent relatively brief deflationary worldwide spiral as the $1,500,000,000,000,000.00 in worldwide derivatives unwind followed by money printing like the world has never seen.

In closing Mr. Deep I appreciate your right to express your opinions and I thank God we still have a sliver of freedom left in our great country!

"Resistance to tyrants is obedience to God."   --Thomas Jefferson

trav7777's picture

well...I see no way the credit system doesn't collapse without printing.  The japs have proven this for 20 years.

And, at any rate, gold production peaked...economic decline means further production decline.  Energy scarcity means reduced production and certainly an expectation of dramatically less production into the distant future.  Gold mining is energy expensive.

fonzanoon's picture

Half the people on here think deflation is going to take out everything in sight including gold. The other half agree but think the inflationary response will send it to the moon. I think the bigger question is will people cry uncle and sell when it hits 1,200 and silver hits 20 bucks right before they unleash inflationary hell.

CrockettAlmanac.com's picture

It's called "climbing the wall of worry."

tekhneek's picture

I can respect and value your opinion. I just don't think that they're going to stop printing money, do you? As a matter of fact, they never stopped, so being curious what is your position for and reasoning from going bull to bear all in what, 4 months?

Were you bearish 'til it hit $1900? $1800? or what triggered you switching? Gold is basically the inflation hedge. I don't know about you but I think we're headed for some nasty deflation in some things and some pretty nasty inflation in others.

I can understand if you're frustrated from buying higher than it's trading today but all I see in your post is, from what I'm reading, an emotional response to a rigged market that pisses off even the most seasoned investors...

Basically what I'm saying is:

  • Why do you think they topped? 
  • also: Gold hasn't even hit it's inflation adjusted high yet, nor has silver, would you agree that they will possibly re-test those historic highs and possibly go past them? Or are you saying without a doubt gold will trade no higher than $1600 range?

Just want to know before I junk you. :P

jomama's picture

I can respect and value your opinion. I just don't think that they're going to stop printing moneydo you? 

 

icwutudidthar

tekhneek's picture

lulz.

For real though... people need to understand money is money and paper is paper. 

I mean how else can it be said? "Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value ---- zero." -Voltaire

Any other quotes I'm missing? I'm sure there's a ton.

fonzanoon's picture

My favorite quote was on here the other day "Your lack of preperation does not constitute and emergency on my part".

Deep's picture

Was bullish from 700-til it hit 1900, then when it hit 1900 crashed to 1600 was still bullish, and then when it rallied to 1800 was still bullish, but when it failed their and headed south, thats when i turned. I am a trader, i change gears. I have now changed gears, as I mentioned, i will not short it, actaully shorted silver a few days ago for nice profit, and coverd a few days ago, anyways i will not short them.

And all this talk of it being manipulated. do you have proof, or just the ramblings of all the gold bugs. sorry sister, when gold has gone up at a 20% clip for last 11 years, that aint manipulation. Sorry.

All this inflation adjusted high bullshit, all a nice story to get people interested. Now why are you bullish gold, because they are gonna print forvever. I already posted my view on that above.

As I said above, i dont care what a compnay does, or what the product is, when i see a long-term chart like that, 20yr on gold, i know it's time to get out. Good luck to all you guys buying up here, cause my target is 1100-1200 by summer.

fonzanoon's picture

You are a trader speaking to a bunch of buy and holders. You have to see that difference to understand why you get so much resistance. Who gives a shit if it goes to 1100? You do because you are trading. I don't because I am holding it. Go ahead and spew some fast money bullshit line about trading but you may lose your ass or make money. Who cares?

As for inflation you are a mess. Why do they strip out food and energy? Why have they changed the metrics on how they measure it? Wake up.

Deep's picture

First of all they dont strip out food and energy, both are reported. They strip out food and energy on the core CPI yes. I ain't denying their is inflation, it's commodity inflation, not real inflation. To get real inflation, wages would also have to be rising at a fast clip, they are not. Prices on many things are going down, houses, cars, electronics ect ect. Yes prices are rising in things to do with energy, cause they printed 1 trillion dollars, but that was not OVERALL inflation.

In the Western World, we can not have true inflation because the workers have no power to demand higher wages, thus we will not have inflation. We had a short term blip in COMMODITY inflation, not real inflation. We are already defalting agian. The Bond market sees this, what the BOND market is stupid, i dont think so.

I know know, the currency is gonna collapse, my call aint gonna happen. Only two ways to get hyperinflation, wages also rising at a fast clip, AIN"T GONNA HAPPEN, or a currency collapse. My call aint gonna happen.

fonzanoon's picture

You are correct. It is stagflation right now with a side of deflation. By right now I mean since June 30th when "official" qe2 stopped. As tax revenues continue to decrease via higher true unemplyment and underemployment we will continue to have defecit funding issues. They will keep coming up with stimulus program after stimulus program until one sunny day you wake up and the rest of the world lost confidence in your ability to pay our debts and it is game over for the currency. It happens just like that. It could anyway. You can choose to acknowledge this or ignore it.