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Goldilocks Economic Data Dump Attempts To Resurrect Flawed US Decoupling Thesis

Tyler Durden's picture




 

So with Europe threatening to bury the world again, here is today's "decoupling" attempt to pull the world out by the bootstraps courtesy of the US with what is naturally better than expected data, just like China last week.

  • US Empire Manufatruing (Nov) M/M 0.61 vs. Exp. -2.00 (Prev. -8.48), above zero for the first time since May; Prices Paid Index lowest since Novembever 09 at 18.29 down from +22.47 in Oct  - source
  • US Advance Retail Sales (Oct) M/M 0.5% vs. Exp. 0.3% (Prev. 1.1%), ex Autos +0.6% - source
  • US PPI ex-Food & Energy (Oct) M/M 0.0% vs. Exp. 0.1% (Prev. 0.2%) - source
  • US PPI (Oct) M/M -0.3% vs. Exp. -0.1% (Prev. 0.8%)  - source

Europe entering recession, China stagflating, and the US soaring. Rrrrright. And now, back to the European meltdown.

 

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Tue, 11/15/2011 - 09:40 | 1878755 transaccountin
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Prices Paid Index lowest since Novembever 09

 

uh huh, biggest bs ever

Tue, 11/15/2011 - 09:41 | 1878763 devo
devo's picture

It's all very Orwellian.

Tue, 11/15/2011 - 10:01 | 1878822 Carlyle Groupie
Carlyle Groupie's picture

It's all a CONfidence game. Meanwhile don't forget to get your flu shot. Free, at the Occupy gathering nearest you.

http://www.google.com/search?q=occupy+free+flu+shots

Tue, 11/15/2011 - 09:55 | 1878812 jdelano
jdelano's picture

Pravda!

Tue, 11/15/2011 - 10:02 | 1878837 scatterbrains
scatterbrains's picture

Give them a break they have to defend 124 SPY to the bitter end..  if it blows out they'll have to come out of the closet with their printing press for all to see.. regardless what the gruel eating mouth breathers say...  and they would rather not have to go through all that so ease up.

Tue, 11/15/2011 - 09:41 | 1878757 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

V-shaped Recovery (TM) V 5.0

 

Tue, 11/15/2011 - 09:41 | 1878758 Tsar Pointless
Tsar Pointless's picture

Turnaround Tuesday: Just when you think the world is ending, the end of the ending begins.

Tue, 11/15/2011 - 09:42 | 1878767 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Just lie our way out of it...yea that should work great.

Tue, 11/15/2011 - 09:42 | 1878768 stateside
stateside's picture

There's been a debate in academic circles concerning the 1930's Great Depression regarding lying to the American public.  The question is.....if the US Government would have continually lied and said/reported information that was better than things actually were, would the US have suffered a long, hard Great Depression?  Instead of debating it any longer, we are seeing it play out now before our eyes.

 

stateside

http://www.statesidereport.com

Tue, 11/15/2011 - 10:08 | 1878836 Esso
Esso's picture

But they did continually lie about conditions during the 1930s depression. I've seen tons of articles about the media touting the end of the depression year after year, and there's many, many references to it in the movies of that era.

Didn't work then, won't work now. When everything you do is based on delusions & lies, you can't expect the outcome to be anything but bad.

Godfrey Smith: Mike, I wouldn't worry. Prosperity is just around the corner.
Mike Flaherty: Yeah, it's been there a long time. I wish I knew which corner.
My Man Godfrey (1936)
  

Tue, 11/15/2011 - 09:43 | 1878769 TradingJoe
TradingJoe's picture

Hold your (w)horses, the fat lady aint even on stage yet...lots of singing to do, before....!!

Tue, 11/15/2011 - 09:44 | 1878774 Irish66
Irish66's picture

but Wally world is okay..ha

Tue, 11/15/2011 - 09:46 | 1878777 s2man
s2man's picture

That one's too hot.  And that one's too cold.  But THIS one is juuuuust right. ('cause they said so)

Tue, 11/15/2011 - 09:46 | 1878778 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Yea well like Rusty says to Clark Griswold after their poolside chat, 'Sure I believe ya dad, but do you think mom will buy it'?

Good talk, Russ.

Tue, 11/15/2011 - 09:48 | 1878788 nmewn
nmewn's picture

lol...you kids thirsty?

Tue, 11/15/2011 - 09:47 | 1878783 Esso
Esso's picture

" Rrrrright."

HAHAHAHAHA!

Tue, 11/15/2011 - 09:49 | 1878787 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

They want to implode it all...keep getting right to the edge, then they seem to get cold feet and keep backing away. Gee I wonder what it is theyre so nervous about? They only get one chance, and if any little detail goes wrong theyre all dead.

Tue, 11/15/2011 - 10:04 | 1878845 walcott
walcott's picture

theyre all dead... hopefully sooner than later.

Look at pelosi what else needs to be said.

It's endemic.

Tue, 11/15/2011 - 09:49 | 1878789 Hansel
Hansel's picture

From the retail sales report:  "Gasoline stations sales were up 15.6 percent (±1.7%) from October 2010..."

But hey, retail sales were up 7% y-o-y.

Tue, 11/15/2011 - 09:49 | 1878793 Spooky Polish
Spooky Polish's picture

One more useless overestimated BS data for me please ! Servo ! 

Tue, 11/15/2011 - 09:50 | 1878796 lizzy36
lizzy36's picture

Better Empire Manufacturing was all in prices paid.

Employment was -3.66 vs +3.37 (oct)

New orders -2.07 vs +.16 (oct).

Tue, 11/15/2011 - 09:50 | 1878797 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

Hehe.

I resurected the goldilocks hypothesis six months ago. Even if it is just a cameo appearance goldilocks is good for a nice bounce.

We will have a huge meltup if expectations and actuality of strong Italian bond sales occur this month.

Santa is coming, bitchez.

Tue, 11/15/2011 - 10:05 | 1878798 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

I would say all we needed to know about the US economy was in Wal-Marts quarterly report.  Inflation is out of hand, and many people are not going to be able to afford to eat, let alone buy crap they don't need.  If Wal-Marts input costs caused them to miss estimates with their buying power, I am eagerly awaiting the other retailers. 

Wal-Mart is proof positive that there is too much liquidity out there.  I actually commend them on eating the costs to keep prices low for consumers, but that is a fatal business model in the long run.  The Fed is obviously screwed.  If they increase liquidity *cough*Bullard*cough*, then there will be more joining the protests.  Sopping up the liquidity will cause all the TBTF banks to implode.  I need some popcorn for the entertainment that is about to unfold.  Someone will be fired in the coming months, and someone else will not be getting re-elected.

 

*EDIT* I forgot to add.  When food costs have to be passed to the consumer, watch how quickly states will cut back on food stamp programs.  If they don't, they risk bankruptcy very soon after.

Tue, 11/15/2011 - 20:50 | 1881008 TheMerryPrankster
TheMerryPrankster's picture

Food stamps aren't inflation adjusted. If prices for food rise (as they have been) the card holder receives the same amount of benefits, but it buys less.

It won't bankrupt the states, but it might lead to food riots.

Wasn't Schwarzenheger piloting that chopper that started firing on the crowds during the Sacremento Food Riots of 2015?

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s-cL5FEdDfo

Tue, 11/15/2011 - 09:51 | 1878799 Albertarocks
Albertarocks's picture

US Vampire Manufacturing (Nov) M/M 0.61 vs. Exp. -2.00 (Prev. -8.48),

 

Are you shittin' me?  That's horseshit.  Has to be.

Tue, 11/15/2011 - 10:07 | 1878864 scatterbrains
scatterbrains's picture

This is just reflecting the boom in sign making spurred on by OWS

Tue, 11/15/2011 - 10:40 | 1879015 Albertarocks
Albertarocks's picture

Good point.  I hadn't taken that into consideration.  Obviously I also forgot about rubber bullets and bean bags.

Tue, 11/15/2011 - 10:09 | 1878857 spastic_colon
spastic_colon's picture

these are all BS numbers....although not inconcievable.....retail sales may actually be up albeit at severe discounts (except of course the gas stations!), and of course will translate into better earnings via all of the stock buybacks and financial engineering etc.......the rest is irrelevant garbage

dont forget inflation, you are buying less for the same price (6.2 oz instead of 8oz etc) does not translate into prices, but is denominator inflation.

Tue, 11/15/2011 - 10:07 | 1878858 docj
docj's picture

US PPI (Oct) M/M -0.3% vs. Exp. -0.1% (Prev. 0.8%)

Right. I suppose I shouldn't pay any attention to the fact that my food bill is 30% higher than it was this time last year - buying less food now than then - and believe this BS from the fed.gov's Ministry of Truth. Because, hey, it's not like these f*ckers would ever lie to me, right?

Tue, 11/15/2011 - 10:45 | 1879037 Bay Area Guy
Bay Area Guy's picture

Didn't we just recently see information in the MSM about how the cost of a traditional Thanksgiving dinner is up something like 15% over 2010?  I really don't care that they lie.  (Well, I do, but I guess I expect that they are going to lie to me.)  What I can't stand is the fact that they are actually making policy based on the lies.  See?  No inflation, so we can print another bazillion dollars!

Tue, 11/15/2011 - 10:59 | 1879109 Dick Darlington
Dick Darlington's picture

Retail Sales "description box" in BBG:

Adjusted for seasonal variation, for holiday
and trading day differences, but not for
price changes.

Aaaand back to pretending there's no inflation.

Tue, 11/15/2011 - 13:07 | 1879495 malek
malek's picture

But this is then the inversed decoupling thesis...

Tue, 11/15/2011 - 15:01 | 1879822 Grand Supercycle
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NASDAQ megaphone pattern on daily chart indicates a big move lies ahead.

SP500 monthly chart remains bearish and USDX weekly remains bullish, so it’s only a matter of time until the market makes its move.

http://stockmarket618.wordpress.com

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!