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Goldilocks Economic Data Dump Attempts To Resurrect Flawed US Decoupling Thesis
So with Europe threatening to bury the world again, here is today's "decoupling" attempt to pull the world out by the bootstraps courtesy of the US with what is naturally better than expected data, just like China last week.
- US Empire Manufatruing (Nov) M/M 0.61 vs. Exp. -2.00 (Prev. -8.48), above zero for the first time since May; Prices Paid Index lowest since Novembever 09 at 18.29 down from +22.47 in Oct - source
- US Advance Retail Sales (Oct) M/M 0.5% vs. Exp. 0.3% (Prev. 1.1%), ex Autos +0.6% - source
- US PPI ex-Food & Energy (Oct) M/M 0.0% vs. Exp. 0.1% (Prev. 0.2%) - source
- US PPI (Oct) M/M -0.3% vs. Exp. -0.1% (Prev. 0.8%) - source
Europe entering recession, China stagflating, and the US soaring. Rrrrright. And now, back to the European meltdown.
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Prices Paid Index lowest since Novembever 09
uh huh, biggest bs ever
It's all very Orwellian.
It's all a CONfidence game. Meanwhile don't forget to get your flu shot. Free, at the Occupy gathering nearest you.
http://www.google.com/search?q=occupy+free+flu+shots
Pravda!
Give them a break they have to defend 124 SPY to the bitter end.. if it blows out they'll have to come out of the closet with their printing press for all to see.. regardless what the gruel eating mouth breathers say... and they would rather not have to go through all that so ease up.
V-shaped Recovery (TM) V 5.0
Turnaround Tuesday: Just when you think the world is ending, the end of the ending begins.
Just lie our way out of it...yea that should work great.
There's been a debate in academic circles concerning the 1930's Great Depression regarding lying to the American public. The question is.....if the US Government would have continually lied and said/reported information that was better than things actually were, would the US have suffered a long, hard Great Depression? Instead of debating it any longer, we are seeing it play out now before our eyes.
stateside
http://www.statesidereport.com
But they did continually lie about conditions during the 1930s depression. I've seen tons of articles about the media touting the end of the depression year after year, and there's many, many references to it in the movies of that era.
Didn't work then, won't work now. When everything you do is based on delusions & lies, you can't expect the outcome to be anything but bad.
Godfrey Smith: Mike, I wouldn't worry. Prosperity is just around the corner.
Mike Flaherty: Yeah, it's been there a long time. I wish I knew which corner.
My Man Godfrey (1936)
Hold your (w)horses, the fat lady aint even on stage yet...lots of singing to do, before....!!
but Wally world is okay..ha
That one's too hot. And that one's too cold. But THIS one is juuuuust right. ('cause they said so)
Yea well like Rusty says to Clark Griswold after their poolside chat, 'Sure I believe ya dad, but do you think mom will buy it'?
Good talk, Russ.
lol...you kids thirsty?
" Rrrrright."
HAHAHAHAHA!
They want to implode it all...keep getting right to the edge, then they seem to get cold feet and keep backing away. Gee I wonder what it is theyre so nervous about? They only get one chance, and if any little detail goes wrong theyre all dead.
theyre all dead... hopefully sooner than later.
Look at pelosi what else needs to be said.
It's endemic.
From the retail sales report: "Gasoline stations sales were up 15.6 percent (±1.7%) from October 2010..."
But hey, retail sales were up 7% y-o-y.
@Hansel
Yeah, and check out these "bullish" developments:
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/wal-mart-same-store-sales-120901558.html
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/staples-q3-sales-miss-estimates-111407806.html
One more useless overestimated BS data for me please ! Servo !
Better Empire Manufacturing was all in prices paid.
Employment was -3.66 vs +3.37 (oct)
New orders -2.07 vs +.16 (oct).
Hehe.
I resurected the goldilocks hypothesis six months ago. Even if it is just a cameo appearance goldilocks is good for a nice bounce.
We will have a huge meltup if expectations and actuality of strong Italian bond sales occur this month.
Santa is coming, bitchez.
I would say all we needed to know about the US economy was in Wal-Marts quarterly report. Inflation is out of hand, and many people are not going to be able to afford to eat, let alone buy crap they don't need. If Wal-Marts input costs caused them to miss estimates with their buying power, I am eagerly awaiting the other retailers.
Wal-Mart is proof positive that there is too much liquidity out there. I actually commend them on eating the costs to keep prices low for consumers, but that is a fatal business model in the long run. The Fed is obviously screwed. If they increase liquidity *cough*Bullard*cough*, then there will be more joining the protests. Sopping up the liquidity will cause all the TBTF banks to implode. I need some popcorn for the entertainment that is about to unfold. Someone will be fired in the coming months, and someone else will not be getting re-elected.
*EDIT* I forgot to add. When food costs have to be passed to the consumer, watch how quickly states will cut back on food stamp programs. If they don't, they risk bankruptcy very soon after.
Food stamps aren't inflation adjusted. If prices for food rise (as they have been) the card holder receives the same amount of benefits, but it buys less.
It won't bankrupt the states, but it might lead to food riots.
Wasn't Schwarzenheger piloting that chopper that started firing on the crowds during the Sacremento Food Riots of 2015?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s-cL5FEdDfo
US Vampire Manufacturing (Nov) M/M 0.61 vs. Exp. -2.00 (Prev. -8.48),
Are you shittin' me? That's horseshit. Has to be.
This is just reflecting the boom in sign making spurred on by OWS
Good point. I hadn't taken that into consideration. Obviously I also forgot about rubber bullets and bean bags.
these are all BS numbers....although not inconcievable.....retail sales may actually be up albeit at severe discounts (except of course the gas stations!), and of course will translate into better earnings via all of the stock buybacks and financial engineering etc.......the rest is irrelevant garbage
dont forget inflation, you are buying less for the same price (6.2 oz instead of 8oz etc) does not translate into prices, but is denominator inflation.
US PPI (Oct) M/M -0.3% vs. Exp. -0.1% (Prev. 0.8%)
Right. I suppose I shouldn't pay any attention to the fact that my food bill is 30% higher than it was this time last year - buying less food now than then - and believe this BS from the fed.gov's Ministry of Truth. Because, hey, it's not like these f*ckers would ever lie to me, right?
Didn't we just recently see information in the MSM about how the cost of a traditional Thanksgiving dinner is up something like 15% over 2010? I really don't care that they lie. (Well, I do, but I guess I expect that they are going to lie to me.) What I can't stand is the fact that they are actually making policy based on the lies. See? No inflation, so we can print another bazillion dollars!
Retail Sales "description box" in BBG:
Adjusted for seasonal variation, for holiday
and trading day differences, but not for
price changes.
Aaaand back to pretending there's no inflation.
But this is then the inversed decoupling thesis...
NASDAQ megaphone pattern on daily chart indicates a big move lies ahead.
SP500 monthly chart remains bearish and USDX weekly remains bullish, so it’s only a matter of time until the market makes its move.
http://stockmarket618.wordpress.com