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Is Goldman About To Report Only The Second Loss Since Its 1999 IPO?
For all its criticisms, if there is one thing one can say about Goldman, is that unlike their pathetic TBTF cousins in the US financial industry (JPMorgan, Citi, and shortly Morgan Stanley and Bank of Countrywide Lynch), it can report a loss like a man. Which, in less than 24 hours, it may have to do, for only the second time since its 1999 IPO. As Bloomberg notes, tomorrow the market expects the vampire squid to announce at 8:00am Eastern that it had a loss driven by lower revenues and debt and equity marks. Also, unlike the "others", we are confident Goldman will not hide behind such blatant accounting gimmicks as DVA and loan loss reserve releases (the second because the firm never got into the lending business... on the other hand, the FDIC-insured bank also has yet to open any ATMs, making one wonder just why it continues to have taxpayer backing as a bank holding company, but we digress). Here is what to expect tomorrow from Viniar and Blankfein, courtesy of Bloomberg. Naturally the one thing nobody expects is the announcement of a succession event at the top. Considering the recent step function in popular "appreciation" of financial innovation, we believe a Blankfein phase-out announcement could be in the works. One thing is certain: Ferrari dealerships will not be happy come Christmas as bonuses this year will be poor to quite poor, if any.
ESTIMATES:
* 3Q loss est. 11c (down $1.61 last 4 weeks), range ($1.02)-$1.22
* 3Q rev. $4.37b (down $2.33b last 4 wks), range $3.70b-$5.52b
WHAT TO WATCH:
* Lower Q/q revs: trading (FICC, equity), investment-banking on lower equity underwriting, asset management on lower markets
* Debt/equity, (ICBC) marks: BofA analyst sees markdowns in investment & lending debt/equity (62c), ICBC (40c)
* Negative oper. leverage given rev. pressure: JMP analyst sees comp. ratio flat at 44%, non-comp. exp. ratio at 44% vs 34% Q/q
DATA
* GS has beat EPS ests. 5 of last 8 qtrs, rev. 4 of last 8 qtrs.
* GS has fallen 3 of last 5 days after earnings; options imply 1 day move 4.6%
* GS down 43% YTD to $96.21; watch 10-DMA ($96.05), 20-DMA ($96.48), 50-DMA ($105.14)
* Peer multiples to tangible book: GS 0.79x, BAC 0.48, C 0.58x, JPM 0.95x, MS 0.56x
* GS has 17 buys, 12 holds, 2 sells; avg. PT $145.50 implies 51% upside
* NOTE: July 16, day prior to 2Q earnings, GS had avg. PT of $178 with 66% upside, with 20 buy, 7 hold, 3 sell ratings
TIMING: GS reports ~8am (last 3 times 8:00am, 8:02am, 8:02am); call 9:30am 888-281-7154
Source: Bloomberg First Word News
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Even the squid will go DVA
Apparently God's work ain't as profitable as it used to be.
Any parasite that kills its host is also doomed.
Hosts are starting to identify the ticks though and are pinching them a bit here and there. For instance, Anon posted Vikram Pandit's personal cell phone number in response to Citi recently arresting depositors that wished to closed their accounts.
646-512-4269
Here's to hoping GS loses eleventy dollars per share
They also posted a bunch of GS contact info on pastebin.com bout a month ago..
My thoughts are that they HAVE to report a loss to make them look like they are NOT the rulers of the world (re: That BBC interview a couple of weeks back).
This is to placate the masses no doubt.
(although, what do I know)
My first thought as well. They can take cover for a while and let the rest of the banks take the fire. See it's not really crony capitalism we had a loss this quarter.
I expect it's a feint. frontloading losses.
Maybe...three years ago I would have agreed, but playing three card monte everyday of every hour by law of average cause the house to lose eventually.
The "hedge" is an illusion.
Goldman make the weather they don't need a forecaster.
GS share price will fall. However, to cover their shitty performance, they will take the whole market down this week so that they come out looking like the best horse horse in the glue factory.
Seriously, if GS expects their shares to take a hit, they will simply tilt the momentum down and profit from it.
nice avatar!
Thanks Jonan. ;-)
Even the US will go down - median income: $22,500 per person/45000 per house-hold.
That's FIAT money - without any gold or real production to back it.
Knox is empty - and so are US factories - and homes.
Yes, EVEN the US itself IS going down.
they dva with the best of them
How can the entity that rules the world, lose money?
Oh, yes... i forgot... it's not money they are really interested in.
could also be a a sort of PR campaign, human touch etc. Like tyrants who let themselves photograph with cute little children around, like Hitler, Stalin, Franco etc..
Thats right, totaly contrary to what most everyone believes, they dont give a shit about MONEY at all.
It's a PR stunt. They put all their moneymaking deals off the books.
Thank you for that FMB. I've also noticed that most everyone thinks the big banks want money, but if we, the mortals, know money is not worth the paper it's printed on, what makes anyone think the people who actually create it value it at all? What they want with money is for you to have it, prefferably much more than you can afford to repay, and loose it. Then they own your ass.
Money is to banks what a chain is to slavery.
No Christmas at goldman.
Surely the financial world IS staring the apocalypse in the face. This time it IS different.
ORI
@OWS
DVA isn't a choice, so stop calling it a gimmick.
Lol ... yeah and all audits are honest, competent, penetrating and untarnished... Just ask Anderson.
Suspension of Mark to Market also isn't a choice.... oh wait.
Luckily, the FASB is completely independent and pristinely untouched by banking interests.
<===halloween party cancelled
<===the light of M2M accounting
what do zombies fear most? [choose one--L0L!!!]
Gosh, honest all you well meaning crazies in the OWS park encampment, we are not bad guys who are raping America and the world. See, we can prove it. We lost money this quarter and will only be taking home on the avergae $600k per employee (secretaries and janitors included) this year.
Now go focus your attacks on those other guys, the bad banks.
Next up in this sympathy-baiting trend: Goldman hires Blythe Masters and re-names itself 'Silverwoman'
Exactly, GS is outsmarting the other banks again. This is great PR. The other banks don't realize this is the point to dial down the corruption so that OWS doesn't have anything to complain about (OWS still does but the dumb traditional news won't be able to figure it out if they see EPS loss and they'll just paint OWS as a bunch of commies). Then once OWS is completely discredited, blow the door off the hinges and steal everything that's not tied down. Goldman FTW!
One thing is certain: Ferrari dealerships will not be happy come Christmas as bonuses this year will be poor to quite poor, if any.
good one.
ferrari-recession, biatches
Does this mean I can finally start shorting pos stocks like Tiffanys?
well, according to as it goes over the last weeks, id rather go ueberlong on everything that looks shitty
That's a nice rack there Angry.
Actualy Ferrari might do quite well. The banksters were trying to move upmarket to Bugatti and the new Bentley so they might just have to settle for a Ferrari instead.
take the precious from gollum and all you have left is man sachs.
the precious is really power... money (or fiat) is just the means to that end.
Brilliant Buzzsaw.
ORI
Funny how the stock market is taking a huge dump today but commodities are holding on pretty strong. On past days oil would have been down $2 or more.
I also liked all the stories how gasoline prices needed to jump $.30 since last week because oil rose from $75 to $85. Oil hit $75 for what less than 12 hours?
The bend you over a log brigade is out in full force. That is your Christmas present this year.
All those long EUR calls finally catch up. Their Forex calls vary between dismal & abysmal. Their clients are all on the sidelines with prolapsed sphincters.
Yo Tex! If DVA isn't a gimmick, I expect that the next time we bank CDS spreads come in that the TBTF piece's of shit will take a CHARGE against earnings.....
they will and they do
you can not even close your bank account on these devils
http://www.addictinginfo.org/2011/10/15/bank-of-america-refuses-to-allow...
as one commenter so aptly put it- i bet you could be a protester and a customer if you had a deposit for them
Seeing as GS has been a bank holding company for a few years now does anyone know where I can open my GS checking account?
You opened it at birth... Auto-deposit, withdrawal by committee.
C'mon, I know we all hate GS but do you really expect them to come in below the street???
It's almost rigged. They will beat estimates and Lloyd will have a very Merry Christmas (even if he is Jewish)...
massive trading profits on the last vapor ramp?
From front pocket to back pocket? I dont know, trading thin air doesnt seem too substantial to me.
going to make for a long Hannukah
WTF happened to all the Uber Bulls from over the weekend mocking and ridiculing the 'poor hapless bears'?
They are breathlessly awaiting AAPL and IBM earnings.
Sitting on the sidelines for now.
they went out to buy Selson for the scalp-crawling fear.
Al Jazeera is claiming that Bani Walid, Libya has fallen to the supposed rebels.
The video was a tight shot? of the correspondent and a load of these supposed rebels but no building visible.
Morgan Stanley is up, I guess they will be reporting record profits
No Bonus!!! yikes, really fat ugly hookers and really bad coke. Instead of the Hamptons it will be Hampton Inn Route 9 NJ.
Hempstead turnpike. it's closer.
hahahah Farmingville for the cheap shit.
And they will open the first GS ATM in that hotel room, and it will taste like lunch.....
GS accrues 50% of revenue for compensation expenses. What you will see tomorrow is a reversal of that accrual (as everone will be getting fat 0's come comp time) and GS will be posting solid earnings.
hmm. interesting call. I'll buy that. But don't think it will be lost on the market that GS will then be losing 25% of its best as fifty new hedge funds spring up.
Exactly.
If by solid earnings you mean a loss of over 70 cents per share then you'd be correct.
Champagne. Cheers !!!
The announcement is timed to deflect the fury of the slave class.
Lloyd "Madoff Time" Blankfein:
And if you believe any thing out of the mouth of Lloyd "Just Doin' God's Work" Blank-dick-fein...
I have a deal on some Abacus investments for you...
first ramp job waaaaayyy too early today. they must be really freaking.
Christmas as bonuses this year will be poor to quite poor, if any.
LMAOROTF
All the guns for employees, extra large doses of campaign money for O'buma, and Trash removal is becoming more costly at the Italian branch. All of these expenses were unforseen
SP500 daily chart now gives bearish signal, warning of a new leg down. Weekly chart reverts to neutral.
http://stockmarket618.wordpress.com
The squid is buried in MBS, and is going to take in the ATM like the bad lender they are.
I believe they will end up with huge bonuses again... There are 10 weeks until bonuses are given..and who says they can't get bonuses in the new year...sorry I'm cynical. I'm sure they use the same accounting tactics as citi and Jpm. Same frat of crooks..
Nice to hear something nice said about them.
report like a man... hmmm... and this is to be admired? did they fuck people over like a man too? wonder if some of their execs will die like a man in the aftermath of the collapse
'the FDIC-insured bank also has yet to open any ATMs, making one wonder just why it continues to have taxpayer backing as a bank holding company'
Biggest scandal on the freaking planet, as these sleazebag chiselers suck at the Federal Reserve's ZIRP sugar tit, courtesy of the taxpayer.
OCCUPY GOLDMAN SACHS!
Glad to see the Squid is now taking a stand against accounting gimmicks.
The title of this post should read "Is Goldman About to Report Only the Second Loss Since its 1999 IPO (3rd if you include the 4th qtr 2008 which they conveniently skipped reporting December)".
http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/03/exclusive-aig-was-responsible-for-banks.html
or
http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/04/14/the-case-of-the-missing-month/
It was an unnecessary month, really
Nobody should have reported it
I wonder if they will be claiming a tax refund on losses - or is my assumption that the squid pays tax, showing my lack of credibility to be posting here at ZH
Mr "Doing God's Work" Bankfein will still take home a record high bonus. I'm confident of that.
I am blown away that there is a GS thread, and I didn't see any anti-semite commentary! WHERE ARE THE TROLLS?
Goldman can report a loss like a man?
You meant a man in a dress, right? Or have you forgotten the infamous "orphan month?"
http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/04/14/the-case-of-the-missing-month/