Is Goldman About To Report Only The Second Loss Since Its 1999 IPO?

Tyler Durden's picture

For all its criticisms, if there is one thing one can say about Goldman, is that unlike their pathetic TBTF cousins in the US financial industry (JPMorgan, Citi, and shortly Morgan Stanley and Bank of Countrywide Lynch), it can report a loss like a man. Which, in less than 24 hours, it may have to do, for only the second time since its 1999 IPO. As Bloomberg notes, tomorrow the market expects the vampire squid to announce at 8:00am Eastern that it had a loss driven by lower revenues and debt and equity marks. Also, unlike the "others", we are confident Goldman will not hide behind such blatant accounting gimmicks as DVA and loan loss reserve releases (the second because the firm never got into the lending business... on the other hand, the FDIC-insured bank also has yet to open any ATMs, making one wonder just why it continues to have taxpayer backing as a bank holding company, but we digress). Here is what to expect tomorrow from Viniar and Blankfein, courtesy of Bloomberg. Naturally the one thing nobody expects is the announcement of a succession event at the top. Considering the recent step function in popular "appreciation" of financial innovation, we believe a Blankfein phase-out announcement could be in the works. One thing is certain: Ferrari dealerships will not be happy come Christmas as bonuses this year will be poor to quite poor, if any.


  * 3Q loss est. 11c (down $1.61 last 4 weeks), range ($1.02)-$1.22
  * 3Q rev. $4.37b (down $2.33b last 4 wks), range $3.70b-$5.52b

  * Lower Q/q revs: trading (FICC, equity), investment-banking on lower equity underwriting, asset management on lower markets
  * Debt/equity, (ICBC) marks: BofA analyst sees markdowns in investment & lending debt/equity (62c), ICBC (40c)
  * Negative oper. leverage given rev. pressure: JMP analyst sees comp. ratio flat at 44%, non-comp. exp. ratio at 44% vs 34% Q/q

  * GS has beat EPS ests. 5 of last 8 qtrs, rev. 4 of last 8 qtrs.
  * GS has fallen 3 of last 5 days after earnings; options imply 1 day move 4.6%
  * GS down 43% YTD to $96.21; watch 10-DMA ($96.05), 20-DMA ($96.48), 50-DMA ($105.14)
  * Peer multiples to tangible book: GS 0.79x, BAC 0.48, C 0.58x, JPM 0.95x, MS 0.56x
  * GS has 17 buys, 12 holds, 2 sells; avg. PT $145.50 implies 51% upside
  * NOTE: July 16, day prior to 2Q earnings, GS had avg. PT of $178 with 66% upside, with 20 buy, 7 hold, 3 sell ratings

TIMING: GS reports ~8am (last 3 times 8:00am, 8:02am, 8:02am); call 9:30am 888-281-7154

Source: Bloomberg First Word News

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AngryGerman's picture

Even the squid will go DVA

Smithovsky's picture

Apparently God's work ain't as profitable as it used to be.  

Fukushima Sam's picture

Any parasite that kills its host is also doomed.

Dr. Richard Head's picture

Hosts are starting to identify the ticks though and are pinching them a bit here and there.  For instance, Anon posted Vikram Pandit's personal cell phone number in response to Citi recently arresting depositors that wished to closed their accounts. 


trav7777's picture

Here's to hoping GS loses eleventy dollars per share

iDealMeat's picture

They also posted a bunch of GS contact info on bout a month ago..


Transitory Disinflation's picture

My thoughts are that they HAVE to report a loss to make them look like they are NOT the rulers of the world (re: That BBC interview a couple of weeks back).


This is to placate the masses no doubt.


(although, what do I know)

Ricky Bobby's picture

My first thought as well. They can take cover for a while and let the rest of the banks take the fire. See it's not really crony capitalism we had a loss this quarter.

gojam's picture

I expect it's a feint. frontloading losses.

CPL's picture

Maybe...three years ago I would have agreed, but playing three card monte everyday of every hour by law of average cause the house to lose eventually.


The "hedge" is an illusion.

gojam's picture

Goldman make the weather they don't need a forecaster.

Cosmicserpent's picture

GS share price will fall. However, to cover their shitty performance, they will take the whole market down this week so that they  come out looking like the best horse horse in the glue factory.

Seriously, if GS expects their shares to take a hit, they will simply tilt the momentum down and profit from it.

gojam's picture

Thanks Jonan.   ;-)

eureka's picture

Even the US will go down - median income:  $22,500 per person/45000 per house-hold.

That's FIAT money - without any gold or real production to back it.

Knox is empty - and so are US factories - and homes.

Yes, EVEN the US itself IS going down.

oogs66's picture

they dva with the best of them

FunkyMonkeyBoy's picture

How can the entity that rules the world, lose money?

Oh, yes... i forgot... it's not money they are really interested in.

wandstrasse's picture

could also be a a sort of PR campaign, human touch etc. Like tyrants who let themselves photograph with cute little children around, like Hitler, Stalin, Franco etc..

SheepDog-One's picture

Thats right, totaly contrary to what most everyone believes, they dont give a shit about MONEY at all.

Caggge's picture

It's a PR stunt. They put all their moneymaking deals off the books.

Gief Gold Plox's picture

Thank you for that FMB. I've also noticed that most everyone thinks the big banks want money, but if we, the mortals, know money is not worth the paper it's printed on, what makes anyone think the people who actually create it value it at all? What they want with money is for you to have it, prefferably much more than you can afford to repay, and loose it. Then they own your ass.

Money is to banks what a chain is to slavery.

Oh regional Indian's picture

No Christmas at goldman.

Surely the financial world IS staring the apocalypse in the face. This time it IS different.



Tex's picture

DVA isn't a choice, so stop calling it a gimmick.  

Bartanist's picture

Lol ... yeah and all audits are honest, competent, penetrating and untarnished... Just ask Anderson.

Tyler Durden's picture

Suspension of Mark to Market also isn't a choice.... oh wait.

Luckily, the FASB is completely independent and pristinely untouched by banking interests.

slewie the pi-rat's picture

  <===halloween party cancelled

  <===the light of M2M accounting

what do zombies fear most?  [choose one--L0L!!!]

Bartanist's picture

Gosh, honest all you well meaning crazies in the OWS park encampment, we are not bad guys who are raping America and the world. See, we can prove it. We lost money this quarter and will only be taking home on the avergae $600k per employee (secretaries and janitors included) this year.

Now go focus your attacks on those other guys, the bad banks.

wandstrasse's picture

Next up in this sympathy-baiting trend: Goldman hires Blythe Masters and re-names itself 'Silverwoman'

junkyardjack's picture

Exactly, GS is outsmarting the other banks again.  This is great PR.  The other banks don't realize this is the point to dial down the corruption so that OWS doesn't have anything to complain about (OWS still does but the dumb traditional news won't be able to figure it out if they see EPS loss and they'll just paint OWS as a bunch of commies).  Then once OWS is completely discredited, blow the door off the hinges and steal everything that's not tied down. Goldman FTW!

Deadpool's picture

One thing is certain: Ferrari dealerships will not be happy come Christmas as bonuses this year will be poor to quite poor, if any.

good one.


AngryGerman's picture

ferrari-recession, biatches

jdelano's picture

Does this mean I can finally start shorting pos stocks like Tiffanys?  

AngryGerman's picture

well, according to as it goes over the last weeks, id rather go ueberlong on everything that looks shitty

Ancona's picture

That's a nice rack there Angry.

adr's picture

Actualy Ferrari might do quite well. The banksters were trying to move upmarket to Bugatti and the new Bentley so they might just have to settle for a Ferrari instead.

buzzsaw99's picture

take the precious from gollum and all you have left is man sachs.

john39's picture

the precious is really power...   money (or fiat) is just the means to that end.

adr's picture

Funny how the stock market is taking a huge dump today but commodities are holding on pretty strong. On past days oil would have been down $2 or more.

I also liked all the stories how gasoline prices needed to jump $.30 since last week because oil rose from $75 to $85. Oil hit $75 for what less than 12 hours?

The bend you over a log brigade is out in full force. That is your Christmas present this year.

GeneMarchbanks's picture

All those long EUR calls finally catch up. Their Forex calls vary between dismal & abysmal. Their clients are all on the sidelines with prolapsed sphincters.

dabullify's picture

Yo Tex! If DVA isn't a gimmick, I expect that the next time we bank CDS spreads come in that the TBTF piece's of shit will take a CHARGE against earnings.....

kito's picture

as one commenter so aptly put it- i bet you could be a protester and a customer if you had a deposit for them

bob_dabolina's picture

Seeing as GS has been a bank holding company for a few years now does anyone know where I can open my GS checking account?

tickhound's picture

You opened it at birth... Auto-deposit, withdrawal by committee.

SaveTheGreenback's picture

C'mon, I know we all hate GS but do you really expect them to come in below the street???

It's almost rigged.  They will beat estimates and Lloyd will have a very Merry Christmas (even if he is Jewish)...

jdelano's picture

massive trading profits on the last vapor ramp?

SheepDog-One's picture

From front pocket to back pocket? I dont know, trading thin air doesnt seem too substantial to me.

Seasmoke's picture

going to make for a long Hannukah