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Is Goldman About To Report Only The Second Loss Since Its 1999 IPO?

Tyler Durden's picture




 

For all its criticisms, if there is one thing one can say about Goldman, is that unlike their pathetic TBTF cousins in the US financial industry (JPMorgan, Citi, and shortly Morgan Stanley and Bank of Countrywide Lynch), it can report a loss like a man. Which, in less than 24 hours, it may have to do, for only the second time since its 1999 IPO. As Bloomberg notes, tomorrow the market expects the vampire squid to announce at 8:00am Eastern that it had a loss driven by lower revenues and debt and equity marks. Also, unlike the "others", we are confident Goldman will not hide behind such blatant accounting gimmicks as DVA and loan loss reserve releases (the second because the firm never got into the lending business... on the other hand, the FDIC-insured bank also has yet to open any ATMs, making one wonder just why it continues to have taxpayer backing as a bank holding company, but we digress). Here is what to expect tomorrow from Viniar and Blankfein, courtesy of Bloomberg. Naturally the one thing nobody expects is the announcement of a succession event at the top. Considering the recent step function in popular "appreciation" of financial innovation, we believe a Blankfein phase-out announcement could be in the works. One thing is certain: Ferrari dealerships will not be happy come Christmas as bonuses this year will be poor to quite poor, if any.

ESTIMATES:

  * 3Q loss est. 11c (down $1.61 last 4 weeks), range ($1.02)-$1.22
  * 3Q rev. $4.37b (down $2.33b last 4 wks), range $3.70b-$5.52b

WHAT TO WATCH:
  * Lower Q/q revs: trading (FICC, equity), investment-banking on lower equity underwriting, asset management on lower markets
  * Debt/equity, (ICBC) marks: BofA analyst sees markdowns in investment & lending debt/equity (62c), ICBC (40c)
  * Negative oper. leverage given rev. pressure: JMP analyst sees comp. ratio flat at 44%, non-comp. exp. ratio at 44% vs 34% Q/q

DATA
  * GS has beat EPS ests. 5 of last 8 qtrs, rev. 4 of last 8 qtrs.
  * GS has fallen 3 of last 5 days after earnings; options imply 1 day move 4.6%
  * GS down 43% YTD to $96.21; watch 10-DMA ($96.05), 20-DMA ($96.48), 50-DMA ($105.14)
  * Peer multiples to tangible book: GS 0.79x, BAC 0.48, C 0.58x, JPM 0.95x, MS 0.56x
  * GS has 17 buys, 12 holds, 2 sells; avg. PT $145.50 implies 51% upside
  * NOTE: July 16, day prior to 2Q earnings, GS had avg. PT of $178 with 66% upside, with 20 buy, 7 hold, 3 sell ratings

TIMING: GS reports ~8am (last 3 times 8:00am, 8:02am, 8:02am); call 9:30am 888-281-7154

Source: Bloomberg First Word News

 

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Mon, 10/17/2011 - 14:26 | 1782251 AngryGerman
AngryGerman's picture

Even the squid will go DVA

Mon, 10/17/2011 - 14:30 | 1782273 Smithovsky
Smithovsky's picture

Apparently God's work ain't as profitable as it used to be.  

Mon, 10/17/2011 - 14:31 | 1782274 Fukushima Sam
Fukushima Sam's picture

Any parasite that kills its host is also doomed.

Mon, 10/17/2011 - 14:34 | 1782290 Dr. Richard Head
Dr. Richard Head's picture

Hosts are starting to identify the ticks though and are pinching them a bit here and there.  For instance, Anon posted Vikram Pandit's personal cell phone number in response to Citi recently arresting depositors that wished to closed their accounts. 

646-512-4269

Mon, 10/17/2011 - 14:38 | 1782308 trav7777
trav7777's picture

Here's to hoping GS loses eleventy dollars per share

Mon, 10/17/2011 - 14:51 | 1782352 iDealMeat
iDealMeat's picture

They also posted a bunch of GS contact info on pastebin.com bout a month ago..

 

Mon, 10/17/2011 - 15:03 | 1782404 Transitory Disi...
Transitory Disinflation's picture

My thoughts are that they HAVE to report a loss to make them look like they are NOT the rulers of the world (re: That BBC interview a couple of weeks back).

 

This is to placate the masses no doubt.

 

(although, what do I know)

Mon, 10/17/2011 - 17:15 | 1782980 Ricky Bobby
Ricky Bobby's picture

My first thought as well. They can take cover for a while and let the rest of the banks take the fire. See it's not really crony capitalism we had a loss this quarter.

Mon, 10/17/2011 - 14:32 | 1782278 gojam
gojam's picture

I expect it's a feint. frontloading losses.

Mon, 10/17/2011 - 14:36 | 1782298 CPL
CPL's picture

Maybe...three years ago I would have agreed, but playing three card monte everyday of every hour by law of average cause the house to lose eventually.

 

The "hedge" is an illusion.

Mon, 10/17/2011 - 14:38 | 1782306 gojam
gojam's picture

Goldman make the weather they don't need a forecaster.

Mon, 10/17/2011 - 15:07 | 1782411 Cosmicserpent
Cosmicserpent's picture

GS share price will fall. However, to cover their shitty performance, they will take the whole market down this week so that they  come out looking like the best horse horse in the glue factory.

Seriously, if GS expects their shares to take a hit, they will simply tilt the momentum down and profit from it.

Mon, 10/17/2011 - 15:11 | 1782437 jonan
jonan's picture

nice avatar!

Mon, 10/17/2011 - 15:40 | 1782555 gojam
gojam's picture

Thanks Jonan.   ;-)

Mon, 10/17/2011 - 14:42 | 1782322 eureka
eureka's picture

Even the US will go down - median income:  $22,500 per person/45000 per house-hold.

That's FIAT money - without any gold or real production to back it.

Knox is empty - and so are US factories - and homes.

Yes, EVEN the US itself IS going down.

Mon, 10/17/2011 - 19:14 | 1783436 oogs66
oogs66's picture

they dva with the best of them

Mon, 10/17/2011 - 14:27 | 1782252 FunkyMonkeyBoy
FunkyMonkeyBoy's picture

How can the entity that rules the world, lose money?

Oh, yes... i forgot... it's not money they are really interested in.

Mon, 10/17/2011 - 14:35 | 1782293 wandstrasse
wandstrasse's picture

could also be a a sort of PR campaign, human touch etc. Like tyrants who let themselves photograph with cute little children around, like Hitler, Stalin, Franco etc..

Mon, 10/17/2011 - 14:47 | 1782338 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Thats right, totaly contrary to what most everyone believes, they dont give a shit about MONEY at all.

Mon, 10/17/2011 - 15:08 | 1782424 Caggge
Caggge's picture

It's a PR stunt. They put all their moneymaking deals off the books.

Tue, 10/18/2011 - 02:14 | 1784258 Gief Gold Plox
Gief Gold Plox's picture

Thank you for that FMB. I've also noticed that most everyone thinks the big banks want money, but if we, the mortals, know money is not worth the paper it's printed on, what makes anyone think the people who actually create it value it at all? What they want with money is for you to have it, prefferably much more than you can afford to repay, and loose it. Then they own your ass.

Money is to banks what a chain is to slavery.

Mon, 10/17/2011 - 14:40 | 1782255 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

No Christmas at goldman.

Surely the financial world IS staring the apocalypse in the face. This time it IS different.

ORI

@OWS

Mon, 10/17/2011 - 14:27 | 1782258 Tex
Tex's picture

DVA isn't a choice, so stop calling it a gimmick.  

Mon, 10/17/2011 - 14:30 | 1782272 Bartanist
Bartanist's picture

Lol ... yeah and all audits are honest, competent, penetrating and untarnished... Just ask Anderson.

Mon, 10/17/2011 - 14:31 | 1782275 Tyler Durden
Tyler Durden's picture

Suspension of Mark to Market also isn't a choice.... oh wait.

Luckily, the FASB is completely independent and pristinely untouched by banking interests.

Mon, 10/17/2011 - 14:52 | 1782353 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

  <===halloween party cancelled

  <===the light of M2M accounting

what do zombies fear most?  [choose one--L0L!!!]

Mon, 10/17/2011 - 14:28 | 1782259 Bartanist
Bartanist's picture

Gosh, honest all you well meaning crazies in the OWS park encampment, we are not bad guys who are raping America and the world. See, we can prove it. We lost money this quarter and will only be taking home on the avergae $600k per employee (secretaries and janitors included) this year.

Now go focus your attacks on those other guys, the bad banks.

Mon, 10/17/2011 - 14:48 | 1782340 wandstrasse
wandstrasse's picture

Next up in this sympathy-baiting trend: Goldman hires Blythe Masters and re-names itself 'Silverwoman'

Mon, 10/17/2011 - 15:22 | 1782481 junkyardjack
junkyardjack's picture

Exactly, GS is outsmarting the other banks again.  This is great PR.  The other banks don't realize this is the point to dial down the corruption so that OWS doesn't have anything to complain about (OWS still does but the dumb traditional news won't be able to figure it out if they see EPS loss and they'll just paint OWS as a bunch of commies).  Then once OWS is completely discredited, blow the door off the hinges and steal everything that's not tied down. Goldman FTW!

Mon, 10/17/2011 - 14:28 | 1782261 Deadpool
Deadpool's picture

One thing is certain: Ferrari dealerships will not be happy come Christmas as bonuses this year will be poor to quite poor, if any.

good one.

 

Mon, 10/17/2011 - 14:29 | 1782265 AngryGerman
AngryGerman's picture

ferrari-recession, biatches

Mon, 10/17/2011 - 14:31 | 1782276 jdelano
jdelano's picture

Does this mean I can finally start shorting pos stocks like Tiffanys?  

Mon, 10/17/2011 - 14:34 | 1782286 AngryGerman
AngryGerman's picture

well, according to as it goes over the last weeks, id rather go ueberlong on everything that looks shitty

Mon, 10/17/2011 - 15:31 | 1782514 Ancona
Ancona's picture

That's a nice rack there Angry.

Mon, 10/17/2011 - 14:38 | 1782307 adr
adr's picture

Actualy Ferrari might do quite well. The banksters were trying to move upmarket to Bugatti and the new Bentley so they might just have to settle for a Ferrari instead.

Mon, 10/17/2011 - 14:35 | 1782294 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

take the precious from gollum and all you have left is man sachs.

Mon, 10/17/2011 - 14:40 | 1782310 john39
john39's picture

the precious is really power...   money (or fiat) is just the means to that end.

Mon, 10/17/2011 - 14:42 | 1782319 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

Brilliant Buzzsaw.

ORI

Mon, 10/17/2011 - 14:36 | 1782297 adr
adr's picture

Funny how the stock market is taking a huge dump today but commodities are holding on pretty strong. On past days oil would have been down $2 or more.

I also liked all the stories how gasoline prices needed to jump $.30 since last week because oil rose from $75 to $85. Oil hit $75 for what less than 12 hours?

The bend you over a log brigade is out in full force. That is your Christmas present this year.

Mon, 10/17/2011 - 14:37 | 1782301 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

All those long EUR calls finally catch up. Their Forex calls vary between dismal & abysmal. Their clients are all on the sidelines with prolapsed sphincters.

Mon, 10/17/2011 - 14:41 | 1782312 dabullify
dabullify's picture

Yo Tex! If DVA isn't a gimmick, I expect that the next time we bank CDS spreads come in that the TBTF piece's of shit will take a CHARGE against earnings.....

Mon, 10/17/2011 - 15:02 | 1782398 optionsoptions
optionsoptions's picture

they will and they do

Mon, 10/17/2011 - 14:42 | 1782321 john milton
john milton's picture

you can not even close your bank account on these devils

http://www.addictinginfo.org/2011/10/15/bank-of-america-refuses-to-allow...

Mon, 10/17/2011 - 14:47 | 1782337 kito
kito's picture

as one commenter so aptly put it- i bet you could be a protester and a customer if you had a deposit for them

Mon, 10/17/2011 - 14:47 | 1782336 bob_dabolina
bob_dabolina's picture

Seeing as GS has been a bank holding company for a few years now does anyone know where I can open my GS checking account?

Mon, 10/17/2011 - 15:22 | 1782483 tickhound
tickhound's picture

You opened it at birth... Auto-deposit, withdrawal by committee.

Mon, 10/17/2011 - 14:48 | 1782343 SaveTheGreenback
SaveTheGreenback's picture

C'mon, I know we all hate GS but do you really expect them to come in below the street???

It's almost rigged.  They will beat estimates and Lloyd will have a very Merry Christmas (even if he is Jewish)...

Mon, 10/17/2011 - 14:51 | 1782356 jdelano
jdelano's picture

massive trading profits on the last vapor ramp?

Mon, 10/17/2011 - 14:53 | 1782363 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

From front pocket to back pocket? I dont know, trading thin air doesnt seem too substantial to me.

Mon, 10/17/2011 - 14:48 | 1782344 Seasmoke
Seasmoke's picture

going to make for a long Hannukah

Mon, 10/17/2011 - 14:52 | 1782358 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

WTF happened to all the Uber Bulls from over the weekend mocking and ridiculing the 'poor hapless bears'?

Mon, 10/17/2011 - 14:56 | 1782374 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

They are breathlessly awaiting AAPL and IBM earnings.

Sitting on the sidelines for now.

Mon, 10/17/2011 - 14:57 | 1782379 jdelano
jdelano's picture

they went out to buy Selson for the scalp-crawling fear.  

Mon, 10/17/2011 - 14:56 | 1782371 PaperBear
PaperBear's picture

Al Jazeera is claiming that Bani Walid, Libya has fallen to the supposed rebels.

The video was a tight shot? of the correspondent and a load of these supposed rebels but no building visible.

Mon, 10/17/2011 - 14:56 | 1782373 junkyardjack
junkyardjack's picture

Morgan Stanley is up, I guess they will be reporting record profits

Mon, 10/17/2011 - 14:56 | 1782377 the not so migh...
the not so mighty maximiza's picture

No Bonus!!!  yikes, really fat ugly hookers and really bad coke.  Instead of the Hamptons it will be Hampton Inn Route 9 NJ.

 

 

Mon, 10/17/2011 - 14:58 | 1782383 jdelano
jdelano's picture

Hempstead turnpike.  it's closer.

Mon, 10/17/2011 - 15:00 | 1782392 the not so migh...
the not so mighty maximiza's picture

hahahah Farmingville for the cheap shit.

Mon, 10/17/2011 - 21:49 | 1783809 Tijuana Donkey Show
Tijuana Donkey Show's picture

And they will open the first GS ATM in that hotel room, and it will taste like lunch.....

Mon, 10/17/2011 - 14:56 | 1782378 thebone
thebone's picture

GS accrues 50% of revenue for compensation expenses. What you will see tomorrow is a reversal of that accrual (as everone will be getting fat 0's come comp time) and GS will be posting solid earnings.

Mon, 10/17/2011 - 15:00 | 1782396 jdelano
jdelano's picture

hmm.  interesting call.  I'll buy that.  But don't think it will be lost on the market that GS will then be losing 25% of its best as fifty new hedge funds spring up.  

Mon, 10/17/2011 - 15:02 | 1782401 SaveTheGreenback
SaveTheGreenback's picture

Exactly.

Mon, 10/17/2011 - 21:34 | 1783785 Where My Dawg At
Where My Dawg At's picture

If by solid earnings you mean a loss of over 70 cents per share then you'd be correct.

Mon, 10/17/2011 - 15:00 | 1782395 Andrew Jackson ...
Andrew Jackson epitaph's picture

Champagne. Cheers !!!

Mon, 10/17/2011 - 15:06 | 1782415 metastar
metastar's picture

The announcement is timed to deflect the fury of the slave class.

Mon, 10/17/2011 - 15:06 | 1782417 Problem Is
Problem Is's picture

Lloyd "Madoff Time" Blankfein:

"See... Goldman doesn't front run or rig markets or engage in insider trading or fraudulently rig country's budgets (See: Greece) to hide debt or stack MBS junk bonds to blow up for our profit...


We took a loss like every other fair player on Wall Street... Goldman is as innocent as a virgin at a porn star convention..."

And if you believe any thing out of the mouth of Lloyd "Just Doin' God's Work" Blank-dick-fein...

I have a deal on some Abacus investments for you...

Mon, 10/17/2011 - 15:07 | 1782419 jdelano
jdelano's picture

first ramp job waaaaayyy too early today.  they must be really freaking.  

Mon, 10/17/2011 - 15:09 | 1782434 rsfish
rsfish's picture

Christmas as bonuses this year will be poor to quite poor, if any.

LMAOROTF

Mon, 10/17/2011 - 15:11 | 1782435 Josh Randall
Josh Randall's picture

All the guns for employees, extra large doses of campaign money for O'buma, and Trash removal is becoming more costly at the Italian branch. All of these expenses were unforseen

Mon, 10/17/2011 - 15:11 | 1782436 Grand Supercycle
Grand Supercycle's picture

SP500 daily chart now gives bearish signal, warning of a new leg down. Weekly chart reverts to neutral.

http://stockmarket618.wordpress.com

Mon, 10/17/2011 - 15:12 | 1782444 Piranhanoia
Piranhanoia's picture

The squid is buried in MBS, and is going to take in the ATM like the bad lender they are.

Mon, 10/17/2011 - 15:16 | 1782460 ziggy59
ziggy59's picture

I believe they will end up with huge bonuses again... There are 10 weeks until bonuses are given..and who says they can't get bonuses in the new year...sorry I'm cynical. I'm sure they use the same accounting tactics as citi and Jpm. Same frat of crooks..

Mon, 10/17/2011 - 15:17 | 1782468 jm
jm's picture

For all its criticisms, if there is one thing one can say about Goldman, is that unlike their pathetic TBTF cousins in the US financial industry (JPMorgan, Citi, and shortly Morgan Stanley and Bank of Countrywide Lynch), it can report a loss like a man.

 

Nice to hear something nice said about them.

 

Mon, 10/17/2011 - 15:17 | 1782471 KTV Escort
KTV Escort's picture

report like a man... hmmm... and this is to be admired? did they fuck people over like a man too? wonder if some of their execs will die like a man in the aftermath of the collapse

Mon, 10/17/2011 - 15:33 | 1782527 machineh
machineh's picture

'the FDIC-insured bank also has yet to open any ATMs, making one wonder just why it continues to have taxpayer backing as a bank holding company'

Biggest scandal on the freaking planet, as these sleazebag chiselers suck at the Federal Reserve's ZIRP sugar tit, courtesy of the taxpayer.

OCCUPY GOLDMAN SACHS!

Mon, 10/17/2011 - 15:40 | 1782552 tomreagan
tomreagan's picture

Glad to see the Squid is now taking a stand against accounting gimmicks.

The title of this post should read "Is Goldman About to Report Only the Second Loss Since its 1999 IPO (3rd if you include the 4th qtr 2008 which they conveniently skipped reporting December)".

http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/03/exclusive-aig-was-responsible-for-banks.html

 

or

http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/04/14/the-case-of-the-missing-month/

Mon, 10/17/2011 - 17:44 | 1783112 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

It was an unnecessary month, really
Nobody should have reported it

Mon, 10/17/2011 - 15:46 | 1782581 ft65
ft65's picture

I wonder if they will be claiming a tax refund on losses - or is my assumption that the squid pays tax, showing my lack of credibility to be posting here at ZH

Mon, 10/17/2011 - 17:07 | 1782933 PulauHantu29
PulauHantu29's picture

Mr "Doing God's Work" Bankfein will still take home a record high bonus.  I'm confident of that.

Mon, 10/17/2011 - 21:55 | 1783825 Tijuana Donkey Show
Tijuana Donkey Show's picture

I am blown away that there is a GS thread, and I didn't see any anti-semite commentary! WHERE ARE THE TROLLS?

Mon, 10/17/2011 - 23:48 | 1784083 mark mchugh
mark mchugh's picture

Goldman can report a loss like a man?

You meant a man in a dress, right?  Or have you forgotten the infamous "orphan month?"

http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/04/14/the-case-of-the-missing-month/

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