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Goldman Bullish On Gold, 3 Month Price Target Of $1785
Back in February, shortly before the big sell off in gold we warned that we have some "Horrible News For Goldbugs - Paulson Is Bullish On Gold Again." We may have some bad news again, as the 'bullish' sentiment this time comes from none other than the muppet master, after Goldman released a note overnight saying that "gold is set to glimmer as growth tarnishes." To wit: "We reiterate our constructive outlook for gold prices in 2012 and our 3, 6-and 12-mo forecasts of $1,785/toz, $1,840/toz and $1,940/toz, respectively. We acknowledge, however, that continued strong US economic data poses growing risk to our forecast for rising gold prices. Net, we reiterate our view that at current price levels gold remains a compelling trade but not a long-term investment, and we continue to recommend a long position in Dec-12 COMEX gold futures." Yes, that's great - we have only one word: Stolper That said, the only saving grace to an all out wipeout is that Goldman appears quite set on getting QE at all costs, potentially as soon as April - a move which would send the metal soaring as the Chairman can not have his cake and eat it too, absent a few helping hands from the CME of course.
Back to the GS note, it can be summarized as follows:
Long Gold: Buy December 2012 COMEX Gold (initial value of $1,800.5/toz, current gain $318.3/toz)
While gold prices have returned to trading with a strong inverse correlation to US real rates since late December, at sub-$1,700/toz they remain below the level implied by the current 10-year TIPS yields. We believe that despite last fall’s decline in 10-year TIPS yield to -15 bp, the gold market may have been expecting that real rates would soon be rising along with improving economic growth, leading to a sharp decline in net speculative length in gold futures. Accordingly, a simple benchmarking of real rates to US consensus growth expectations suggested a level of +40 bp by year end. In our modeling of gold prices to real rates, this higher level of real rates would be consistent with the current trading range of gold prices. As we look forward, our US economists forecast subdued growth and further easing by the Fed in 2012, which should push the market’s expectations of real rates back down near 0 bp and gold prices back to our 6-mo forecast of $1,840/toz. Consequently, we continue to recommend a long gold position.
None of this is at all new or surprising. What little informative value is here, is in Goldman's overview of the reasons for gold's plunge last December.
The December European funding shock may have further depressed gold prices
While this shift in real rate expectations helps explain most of the decline in gold prices last fall, the sharp decline in gold prices to $1,540/toz in the second week of December stands out as significantly below the level implied by the market’s expectation of higher real rates. From a news flow perspective, the most apparent catalyst was the disappointing European Summit. From a positioning perspective, this move coincided with a sharp decline in COMEX net speculative positioning with ETF gold holdings and real rates little changed. Finally, this move lower was likely exacerbated by prices trading through their 200 day moving average.
The most striking feature of this sell-off was the collapse in front month gold lease rates a couple of weeks earlier, which was likely driven by demand for US dollars from European banks. Late last year, the appetite for European banks in the US$ bond market was very low, so banks had to swap their € debt into US$ in order to get US$ funding, creating a significant supply/demand imbalance, as observable from the widening of the €/US$ cross currency basis swap. Similarly with gold, this demand for US$ funding reportedly led banks to offer physical gold in the swap market and bid gold forwards to hedge. These flows mechanically led to a steepening of the contango of the gold forward curve, and a sharp decline in the gold lease rate which is the spread between LIBOR and the gold forward rates.
Although this large move in the gold lease rate preceded the sharp sell-off in gold prices, the link between both moves is not obvious. Higher gold forward rates offered an arbitrage opportunity between physical gold and future prices as investors could capture the gold forward rate by initiating long physical gold positions (via ETFs for example) and selling COMEX gold futures against them. The price impact of this arbitrage would, however, likely be limited since it involves both a long and short gold position.
What is striking, though, is that the ECB’s aggressive actions to ensure liquidity to European banks, especially the LTROs, have broadly coincided with shifts in gold positioning. Gold prices returned to trading with a strong negative correlation to US 10-year TIPS yield soon after the first LTRO in December. Further, front month gold lease rates increased sharply after the second LTRO at the end of February, to reach their highest levels since last August. We therefore expect that the normalization in the gold lease rate that took place earlier this month will be key to assessing whether the December funding stress of European banks generated an additional de-rating of gold prices. Should that be the case, we would expect additional near-term support to COMEX gold prices.
And while Monday morning quarterbacking is great, this is basically a three month delayed retelling of precisely as we said back in December when contrary to everyone else, we said that rising gold lease rates indicated a bottom in gold. Sure enough, they did.
More importantly, Goldman is now selling gold to muppets. Be warned.
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Broken clocks... When you spew out recos like GS does, you´re bound to be right some time.
Goldmans buying = time to sell :-) Just kidding. Even the GS criminals/liars/thieves can be occasionally right.
Welcome to the GS mindscrew.........think we're kidding muppets?
Goldman Bullish On Gold, 3 Month Price manipulation Target Of $1785
^fixed^
Oh good!... Now it looks like I'll be able to buy some at $1500... I'll start averaging in when they hit their 'stop-loss'...
No worry, you'll get Stolpered out on the trade.
Whatever they say, people buying Physical precious metals are just UNWILLING TO SPECULATE BY HOLDING THE US DOLLAR. I mean GS is kidding who? That the Gold trade is speculative, how about holding 30 treasuries at 3.5% YTM, is that the mother of all Bubble and speculation or what? What is the present value in commodities of that Bond? 30 cents on teh dollar of the traded value. And GOld in USD is speculative at the current ratio of M3 of 3%? Please, GS sod off.
Goldman sez 2 buy gold? More like Soldman sez 2 sell gold so they can buy it cheaper.
Now if we can just find out what the mafia had to say about POSX this morning, we'll be set....
The best part is the $1940 target! Less than one percent above the all-time high. What happens then? It's like they're telling us that the cartel will come in right when the all-time high is surpassed. They won't concede $2000, they'll continue to defend against it. Wow.
How will the government fund its $1T plus deficit again? WHO CARES WHAT GS THINKS IF YOUR NOT PLAYING LEVERAGE. Buy physical amounts that price swings have no chance of shaking your long term belief and tune out the noise.
Physical gold is not meant to be day traded. If you want to trade play the inverse action or buy AAPL. What ever...it's your choice.
I agree, trading in physical would be a pain in the ass but day trading in paper is easy. The market is so volatile it's difficult to lose money.
Goldbugs will of course disagree as they think paper is evil and guaranteed to turn to shit overnight.
No doubt the vampire squid and its Skynet algo minions troll ZH, and are aware of their contrarian indicator status
No, Goldman's opinion = noise. If there was any kind of statistical convergence whatsoever, right or wrong, then people could use it for trading purposes.
This is just an opinion pulled out of someone's arse.
but the guy who felt like writing the memo got 10 million just for doing so...
It's not a matter of if GSucks is wrong with their predictions, it's a matter of what they do to create an outcome. It's a matter of massive manipulation of your money and theirs. They have the means of doing what they please for the time being. ..for the time being....
Goldman doesn't give a shit about a recommendation on gold (because they're probably convinced "muppets" only think in terms of PAPER GOLD)...
Kiss o death!!!!!!!!!!!
my classmate's sister makes $67/hour on the laptop. She has been without a job for 6 months but last month her pay was $20212 just working on the laptop for a few hours. Read more on this web site ..... http://lazycash9.com
goldman = cretan liar
goldman <> market signal one way or the other
Unfortunately with Goldman's clock, the hands have fell off. They are never right.
I know it seems wrong, but short gold. Sell a few GC futures or short the ES. It's about time that risk assets started taking some pain.
1000 DUST aquired.
This has got Stopler written all over it.
Shit, i didn't even need to get past the headline on that decision.
Well they have 14,000 VPs. So they could have just 10% of these jagoffs saying (blank) is going up, and another 10% saying it will go down and they still have over 11,000 assholes who they can have take a new position on the issue when they need to.
I was about to buy some more gold. Oh well there goes that idea!
I'm still not sure if the gold price is not going to crater this week (buying opportunity for me, of course) but of one thing I'm sure it will go up - eventually. Meanwhile, I'd be happier if the Holy Vampire Squid would not write so many comment on the metal... creepy...
Tickle me Goldman
'More importantly, Goldman is now selling gold to muppets. Be warned.'
Or, now that muppets know the game and expect this, they are buying aggressively? Or... did I just Marijuana Think myself into a labyrinth?
easy to do as you never know if the shills are bluffing or double-bluffing
Conclusion: ignore the news (shills)
hmmm, if they know that I know what they know, then they know I know what to do, which means they know what they say is expected to be contrarian.
Kind of rock, paper, scissors...right?
No, never "a long term investment".
and on that note, gold down premarket. gasp...
It's down every day pre-US market
is that their own position, or the position they want the muppets to take?
Well gosh......maybe......then again.
ARRRGH.......I don't know!!!!
Crap......this is just way too much pressure.
is that their own position, or the position they want the muppets to take?
Yes.
don't do what goldman says, do what goldman does...
they know that we know that they know we're muppets, so that means when they say to buy it really means to sell because..
I know that you believe you understand what you think Goldman says, but I'm not sure you realize that what you heard is not what they meant to be taken as an indicator of future performance.
Gold hasn't been outperforming when "growth is tarnished".
Gold has done well when there is uncertainty and fear in the market, or when there are concerns about printing.
Stocks have also done quite well when there are concerns (or hopes) for printing, but not when there is fear in the market.
I still find it disturbing how closely gold has tracked stocks the last year.
and I am still one of the only people who ever post here who is significantly upside down on Gold. oh well, it's just insurance anyway.
I still find it disturbing how closely gold has tracked stocks the last year.
I still find it disturbing how closely paper gold has tracked stocks the last year. - fixed it.
Perhaps.
but the last few times I bought Physical (I use Tulving) the price of physical is basically the price of paper. (+/- negligible amount).
Will that always hold? Probably not, there is a high possibility that the paper market will "break". But I've been hearing about immenent crash in the paper markets for a lonnnnnggggg time now. The manipulators clearly have a strong hand.
If you would have asked me in 2006 "would bankers get record bonuses after the coming financial crash?" I would have said "no". and yet here we are.
Likewise: I have no idea what will happen if/when the paper gold market crashes. Those who will stea from me are powerful, and not to be taken lightly.
LongSoupLine
"I still find it disturbing how closely paper gold has tracked stocks the last year. - fixed it."
You should try comparing physical backed paper gold to physical gold. Maybe they don't correlate with US Gold ETFs but they certainly do with UK Gold ETFs.
But you think paper is evil and will turn to shit overnight. So junk me please if you haven't already.
Doesn't it make you guys uneasy when you see all these mega banks touting gold? Sure doesn't make me feel comfortable. After all, we fade them when theyre bullish on equities, why would this not apply to commodities?
Unrelated rant: Obamacare Supreme Court hearings. Has there been a more blatant "fix" in history. The Solicitor General's performance yesterday would make the 1919 White Sox proud. This is a guy who has presented briefs 17 times in front of the court And yet he was reduced to a bumbling amateur idiot yesterday by SOFTBALL questions regarding the individual mandate that he had MONTHS to prepare for. This is all Obama's plan to portray Romney in a worse light. New World Order is really in a groove right now: Obama/Medvedev lovefest, Chinese "coup", strategic petroleum reserve release, heightened xenophobia in both US and France right before elections, I could go on and on.
Time to short everything then. Thanks Goldman.
Watch it be another -$50 day for gold today.
I know... its down $15 already just on the release of that article.
Mind you, end of the month always dips quite far - did in Feb and Jan too if I remember rightly
All the anti-Goldmanites better sell then.
Ohh. I guess Goldman is only ALWAYS wrong when they disagree with you.
Or perhaps they looked at how small market PMs is in comparison to stocks and bonds and thought: "Hey, lets make a correct call on this puny investment and have the muppets think we´re spot on. Then we tell them to buy *insert crappy equity*, sell them our holdings of the same and make a killing"....
Goldman, why did you have to do this? Ultimate mindf**k.
holly shit , Gold takedown incomming.
Yes. Funnel the sheep into the ETF pen ahead of another margin call or Indian 'duty hike'. The goal of course being to determine (and capture) the spread between (1) where the sheeple are willing to bid up the paper price on the basis of GS's "recommendation" and (2) where the weak hands will shake out.
I'm no prognosticator, but it wouldn't be a shock to see prices flirt with $1,700 by the weekend and pummeled back to $1,600 by Good Friday.
GS long W( tungsten ) .
They read ZH at Goldman...
Don't let them fool you into... buying gold... o_O
Keep in mind that The Squid is not advocating a strategy of buying and holding bullion. They are advocating a speculative paper position on the paper price of gold. As funds become available I shall continue to accumulate physical.
Exactly. GS issues a reco that will generate revenues for themselves. They will subsequently recommend selling.
Churn baby, churn Disco inferno.
There is of course another aspect of this worth considering: that they will let price rise just to release a flood of paper gold sometime in the future. I think shorting could be dangerous at this point. Goldman has an awful lot of clients...
As CRIMEX gets closer and closer to defaulting on physical delivery, it would be prudent to examine Obama's latest E.O. in a new light. There is a probability that the banksters would force a nationalization of all US PM mines, dealers, refineries and mints. Much easier (and safer) then going the door-to-door confiscation route. Only "terrorists" hold alternative money, dontcha know.
It's ok people, he's bullish about paper gold prices.
For a moment there I was worried.
Net, we reiterate our view that at current price levels gold remains a compelling trade but not a long-term investment,...
No-go long-term because of what? - it's 99yr. chart?
Why does the price of gold in worthless US currency really matter? What matters is that if you own physical gold, it always stays the same.
Agreed. The real story is
Oil
Bread
Labor (including health and education and security services)
Shelter
Priced in gold. Which way is up again?
Another heart warming story!!! Everything is soooo good.
Total: "may be months" to stop N.Sea gas cloudhttp://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-north-east-orkney-shetland-17533136
i dont see a prob with QU-e , just announce some margin hikes on gold silver etc, 2 days before any QE announcements. and va la ! price stablity
now gimme a job in the tower of evil.
....and the QE trade is off.
this does make me fee rather uncertain about things...
in times of uncertainty i buy phyzz.
im certain on that
winwon
All your debasement belong to us.
'Price' is becoming a meaningless notion. Just a question of having, or not having, something real when your accounts are drained. Which they will be.
No rule of law. We are meat, prey, muppets to the algocorp zombies. Psychopaths rule and wonder where all the grownups are to stop their brutality. But the grownups have been banned, blacklisted, cast out, jailed, ignored, defunded.
Got Tangible?
Buy Tungsten........!
OK, toss me some.
Oh, sorry. Poor choice of words there.
Marc Faber was talking about a correction to 1500 or less, I was holding off increasing until after that. Like most the board I buy for physical delivery.
I also figured that MF Global and the war against the farmers that commodities, especially cattle would be beaten down in price to put more little guys out of business. Another shoe drops with BATS (surprise, not). Nobody should invest in the Kansas area without understanding this. Kansas has been targeted.
Regions and industries with a history of resistence has and is being targetted:
1. steel belt (now rust belt) - collective bargaining / unionization
2. farmers - self-sufficient, libertarian
Why Kansas?
Texas has been ignored some lately by the current administtration.
Higher gold forward rates offered an arbitrage opportunity between physical gold and future prices as investors could capture the gold forward rate by initiating long physical gold positions (via ETFs for example) and selling COMEX gold futures against them.
Hmmm...I think we need a definition for "physical" (one that doesn't reference a decidely nauseating Olivia Newton John video from long ago)...
I'd be happy just to know the physical, non-ETF bullion that the principals at Goldman are holding, and when & by how much that changes from time to time. That would tell me what I really need to know about their motives.
It's not that big-A-deal. Must be not much news today...
Now get back to work...
"continued strong US economic data"
Now THAT'S comedy! Who writes these things?
_______________________________________
Compare gold and silver prices
Who writes these things?
WH Press Secretary, with contributions from the press corps.
With instructions from Jamie, Ben, Timmy and GANG
"Goldman appears quite set on getting QE at all costs, potentially as soon as April"
QE will come AFTER Romney secures his last delegate for the nomination... Prolly North Carolina...
Goldman -
They are crooks of the Government, by the Government and for the Government.
Clear because the Government is not taking action against them and closing them down.
Fining them and then bailing them out with taxpayer money is the biggest fraud.
A bloody insult to the taxpayer.
There is no government... The US is a corporation (& Goldman are the overseers of the corporation)...
How does anyone take anything that GS says now at face value ('Here, I have some CDSs to sell you', etc)?
DavidC
Silver bullets for werewolves. Gold bullets for banksters.
Goldman dumping its losers again
Do you mean holdings, clients, or employees?
I've got to say that as a PM holder, it worries me when Goldman Sachs recommends gold to us muppets...
You need to think like ZH Au physical holders. You buy regardless of price and never ever sell.
Apparently that will help you sleep at night. An alternative is to fixate on the price of bread 10 years from now, you should be able to set up a sandwich shop whilst everybody else is eating paper.
Interesting concept Mr. Smiler ...... buy gold, regardless of price ..... never sell.
Your persuasive argument has won me over to the gold bugs sir! Thank You!!
/SLeeping like a baby tonite, thanks to smiler ... You rock dude ..
// Not knocking the bread concept but I'm going to pass on that one .. ten years from now, I'll buy the bread, with the gold .. do you think that will work?
Didn't they call for $2500 gold about 6 months ago?
Here's a short reference-
http://www.escapetyranny.com/2011/08/10/gold-vaults-above-1800-goldman-s...
So they're calling it again.. hmm.
Not to worry this is just to gain muppet trust again. As we get closer to the end expect more neurosis from GS.
I don't understand why more peoplearen't talking about buying some Greek bonds...They have a1004% yield!!!...I have a few I can spare...if anyone is interested you can email me at
giveittomegreekstyle@hotmail.com
Other possibility is Goldman now knows they have no credibility and thinks a buy gold call will actually lead to a sell off allowing them to scoop it up on the cheap ...wishful thinking?
Let me start by saying ,Fuck You's goldman sachs.
And let me also wish a slow and miserable death to all the people involved in the gold and silver price suppression and manipulation.
May my wish come true.
If Goldman's "bullish" on gold, it's time to get out of Gold. As usual. They need to dump, hence the pump.
Dear Blythe,
As instructed, I've put out the memo to the muppets to go long on gold. Go ahead and get your shorts in place and give me a heads up when the squeeze is going to occur.
As always, Love, Lloyd
"More importantly, Goldman is now selling gold to muppets. Be warned."
Selling gold, or selling GLD? Big difference.
This Jewish cartel is untrustworthy and needs to be gone. These liars will say and do anything so whatever they say should be ignored.
Remember, it's ALL manipulation.
GS doesn't release anything useful in these research/analyst 'notes' - why would they?
If you allow yourself to be manipulated, even by taking a GS opinion/recommendation in a contrarian way, you're still being manipulated.
In fact, being 'skeptical' & regarding GS as always saying the opposite of what's 'true' is an even more powerful tool they have - and you give it to them.
Apart from short term market power, GS can't change the fundamental fundamentals behind physical PM ownership - if they could I'd take notice! What they can do
is to try to influence short term price movements advantageously - which I take this piece to be, essentially.
Well they are the gold men..... get ready to buy the dip
Good call on gold today ZH. It is being brought down while fundamentals say ... whatever, fundamentals don't matter in a centralized planned economy.
1984 - "Stupidity was as necessary as intelligence, and as difficult to attain".
Two and two make five bitches!