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Goldman Capitulates On Long EURUSD Call

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Just when it seemed that Goldman's all time unbest sell side analyst, FX "guru" Thomas Stolper, may actually have a strike at bat with his long suffereing EURUSD call which has had a worse Sharpe ratio than even John Paulson's hedge fund over the past 12 months, we are sad to inform our readers that Stolper is and continues to be the perfect contrarian signal (pari passu with that other all time fade: Barton "Notorious" Biggs) with a 0.000 statistical average (which, as everyone knows, is just as valuable as a 1.000). Because just as we predicted earlier today, when we said that "Goldman is about to announce it was just stopped out on its 1.55 EURUSD "tactical" trade", Goldman has just announced that it was "Stopped out of long EUR/$." Something tells us the slow money will not be happy to read this when they roll into the office between 10 am and 1 pm tomorrow.

Trade Update : Stopped out of long EUR/$

 

Having traded for a while quite closely to our stop, our long EUR/$ recommendation has finally been stopped out for a theoretical loss of 4.2% including carry.

 

We recommended this idea on the back of two main assumptions: continued Dollar downside pressure and a gradual decline in the fiscal risk premium in the Eurozone. The latter has obviously been rising in recent months, but at the same time Dollar downside pressures also intensified through July and August as illustrated by very weak BBoP data in recent months. As a result, EUR/$ remained range bound for most of the summer. However, the recent sharp increase in risk aversion, much of this originating in Europe, and upward pressure on the USD across a wide range of currencies lately, has pushed the cross below our 1.35 closing stop.

The simple take home: never, ever bet, against betting against Goldman Sachs. Ever.

 

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Fri, 09/23/2011 - 01:38 | 1700051 Storch
Storch's picture

Time for my european vacation

Fri, 09/23/2011 - 01:51 | 1700083 Michael
Michael's picture

Sales not going so good for CNBC stock market Gorilla Trade sales staff lately.

Watching CNBC on mute looks like a Gorilla Trade commercial.

Fri, 09/23/2011 - 01:39 | 1700052 Storch
Storch's picture

.

Fri, 09/23/2011 - 01:38 | 1700053 Mauibrad
Mauibrad's picture

Up almost all night, Tyler?   A late night release.  Yeah, Midwest and West Coasties will get this changing Goldman call too late tomorrow.

Fri, 09/23/2011 - 01:41 | 1700054 Aeonios
Aeonios's picture

Oh shit? Does that mean that morgan stanley might get saved on account of their dollar liabilities devaluing relative to their EUR assets? Cause that would be exceptionally lame :|.

EDIT: Nevermind, I'm reading this backwards. They past tense made a long EURUSD recommendation and now took an awesome loss for it. Too bad I'm not short goldman.

Fri, 09/23/2011 - 01:38 | 1700055 Blorf
Blorf's picture

How can this only be a 4.2% loss? We are to believe that they use no leverage on FX trades?

What the fuck is a "theoretical loss"?

Fri, 09/23/2011 - 01:52 | 1700079 Edward Fiatski
Edward Fiatski's picture

4.2% loss in subscription fees of clueless cocksuckers.

They didn't actually hold a long trade, thus theoretical loss. LOL

Fri, 09/23/2011 - 02:05 | 1700101 jeff montanye
jeff montanye's picture

a theoretical loss might also be one the customers suffer as opposed to the firm: cf. http://www.amazon.com/Where-Customers-Yachts-Street-Marketplace/product-...  

Fri, 09/23/2011 - 02:09 | 1700108 Edward Fiatski
Edward Fiatski's picture

Indeed, the memo states quite clearly that, "our long EUR/$ recommendation has finally been stopped out for a theoretical loss of 4.2% including carry."

 

Well, I guess, enjoy the carry bucks, you dumb fucks.

Fri, 09/23/2011 - 02:04 | 1700099 caerus
caerus's picture

it's what i report to the irs

Fri, 09/23/2011 - 01:39 | 1700056 TheBadgersSett
TheBadgersSett's picture

what pleasant bed time reading

Fri, 09/23/2011 - 01:39 | 1700058 Michael
Michael's picture

If people with 401k's haven't learned what happens to their retirement portfolio, ala Dot-Com bubble bust and housing bubble led stock market bust of 2008, then they deserve to lose everything.

The great depression caused the stock market to lose 90% back then. I fully expect that to happen again this time.

Fri, 09/23/2011 - 01:53 | 1700085 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

The irony here is that reflation and bailout of failed institutions and markets ensures that the market will be over valued for much longer than it was after 1929 when a reset was allowed to happen followed by 5 years of booming GDP growth

Fri, 09/23/2011 - 01:39 | 1700059 NumNutt
NumNutt's picture

what the fuck is with the Effin vodka add, it is covering up the posted article and I can't get it to minimize.....Oh and hope Goldman Sachs CEO finds a nice warm spot in hell....

Fri, 09/23/2011 - 01:49 | 1700075 AustriAnnie
AustriAnnie's picture

Same happened to me and I was screaming "Minimize! Get out of the way I don't want no Effen Vodka!"

Fri, 09/23/2011 - 01:51 | 1700081 AustriAnnie
AustriAnnie's picture

then i realized I could refresh the page, calmed down, and realized a shot or two might do me good.....

Fri, 09/23/2011 - 04:15 | 1700204 Ketsa
Ketsa's picture

You should use firefox with the adblock addon. no more ads, and you will wonder why you waited so long.

Fri, 09/23/2011 - 01:39 | 1700060 Richard Chesler
Richard Chesler's picture

It couldn't happen to a nicer bunch of corrupt connected insiders.

 

Fri, 09/23/2011 - 01:41 | 1700062 caerus
caerus's picture

terrible timing...i'll take the other side...eur rallies

Fri, 09/23/2011 - 01:48 | 1700069 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

Couldn't be the model funds buying eur/aud ?  The trade is shifting as we speak yards & yards!

 

   OOPs Goldies is caught short again!

Fri, 09/23/2011 - 01:47 | 1700071 reinhardt001
reinhardt001's picture

Tyler, what's the scoop on the late night flash crash in /HG in progress?

Fri, 09/23/2011 - 01:48 | 1700072 Edward Fiatski
Edward Fiatski's picture

ROFLMAO.

Predictable; now, 1.3399 intraday - FULL STEAM AHEAD AHEAD. :)

Fri, 09/23/2011 - 01:52 | 1700084 MFL8240
MFL8240's picture

Goldman needs to first get information from Bernanke and Geithner, than we can expect a call on the EUR/USD.  I thought the idea that they would make a call on their own was a cute joke!  Thanks for the humor.

Fri, 09/23/2011 - 02:01 | 1700086 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 I can't wait to blow Goldies into the porto potty!  Goldman Sachs can fail, and the moat is filled with quick sand!

 

          That bank can fail!    I started my first very young. It's about the young Man /Woman taking risk.

                               (Your loyalty lies with in your self)

Fri, 09/23/2011 - 01:57 | 1700087 YesWeKahn
YesWeKahn's picture

That's God's job

Fri, 09/23/2011 - 01:59 | 1700090 Edward Fiatski
Edward Fiatski's picture

Hold on,

"However, the recent sharp increase in risk aversion, much of this originating in Europe, and upward pressure on the USD across a wide range of currencies lately, has pushed the cross below our 1.35 closing stop."

 

A FX trader couldn't see the macro of this? Who are the dumb motherfuckers, who listened to these calls? You fuck faces ruined my charts: now all I have are countless dojis hanging around the intraday highs, you piece of shit clueless morons.

I'm looking forward to those stops you have just below 1.34, bitch.

Fri, 09/23/2011 - 02:00 | 1700093 Damage Inc.
Damage Inc.'s picture

Damnit, guess I'll have close out my EUO in the morning.

Fri, 09/23/2011 - 02:03 | 1700097 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

  The markets are starting to retrace. A one way train takes a while to slow down<

Fri, 09/23/2011 - 02:03 | 1700098 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Goldie's call: misplaced faith in endless, self-serving Fed money printing

Fri, 09/23/2011 - 02:06 | 1700102 Night Owl Trader
Night Owl Trader's picture

"ruined my charts: now all I have are countless dojis hanging around the intraday highs"

Holy moly, and I though it was just me.

The Night Owl says "Hoo" to my fellow insomniacs.

Fri, 09/23/2011 - 02:17 | 1700121 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

Doji's are good range trade candles. I'll ask for your advice on that range trade. Look @ the daily candles. Need I say more?

Fri, 09/23/2011 - 02:26 | 1700112 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

Goldies captulated last week on the euro call.  They held 1/2 the trade.  I'll send the article over.

  Citi caved in as well!    I'm building a massive aud/chf position as payback!

  http://www.global-view.com/forums/thread.html?id=920523&f=1&fID=&tk=&afx...

 

 I'll find the other articles.

Fri, 09/23/2011 - 02:22 | 1700124 vegas
vegas's picture

Seriously, how do these fucks stay employed? A fucking chimp would at least get something right every once in a while. And at year end he will get a big fat bonus.

Fri, 09/23/2011 - 02:27 | 1700131 Edward Fiatski
Edward Fiatski's picture

Constant rotation of suckers. Notice how this news piece was released at 2 AM at night in the US.

Fri, 09/23/2011 - 02:34 | 1700140 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 I'm on a G500 2/3 the way to Singapore  ya knucklehead!

Fri, 09/23/2011 - 02:22 | 1700125 chump666
chump666's picture

4.2% loss! They got played...nice.

 

Fri, 09/23/2011 - 02:26 | 1700129 chump666
chump666's picture

Now the billion dollar plus longs on the AUD will get pulled. 

Fri, 09/23/2011 - 02:28 | 1700132 Edward Fiatski
Edward Fiatski's picture

Retail traders are over the top with longs on AUD, I still think EUR has room to fall below 1.34, very sharply.

Fri, 09/23/2011 - 02:37 | 1700141 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Feeling the love  ( Star Bright?)  You are a joke! eur has already hit 1.34.  The correlation is shifting star boy, run -run for your commission!

Fri, 09/23/2011 - 02:46 | 1700154 Edward Fiatski
Edward Fiatski's picture

Greece is still fixed? LOL

Fri, 09/23/2011 - 03:17 | 1700174 chump666
chump666's picture

what you got is a liquidation trade, so monies are going into USD's on everything.  Which causes funding squeeze in countries that have relied on  inflows.  It ends.  What we should watch for is China refixing the peg.  They do that, get ready for a massive trade war IMO. 

Fri, 09/23/2011 - 02:48 | 1700156 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

Exact opposite. The trade will be rebuilt to the last retrace 1.07 level. As long as RBA is paying 4.755 ON YOUR MONEY IT'S A CARRY TRADE.  The longs got taken out, and now it's easy to add long again!

Fri, 09/23/2011 - 02:25 | 1700128 atomicwasted
atomicwasted's picture

It's all about who's the best looking horse at the glue factory.  Today, the USD.  Next wee, November, 2012, who knows?

Fri, 09/23/2011 - 02:39 | 1700146 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

I'm short the usd. With a 1/3 hedge. I'll probably take that off  for the weekend.

Fri, 09/23/2011 - 02:31 | 1700136 caerus
caerus's picture

1.348 inviolable i think...it may be the booze

Fri, 09/23/2011 - 02:41 | 1700147 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

I'm printing a real time 1.3510.  Perhaps you should check your charts?

Fri, 09/23/2011 - 02:45 | 1700149 caerus
caerus's picture

i see that...point was bottom at 1.3480ish...else i'm losing some money

Fri, 09/23/2011 - 02:52 | 1700161 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

Bottom was 9-22 1.33843 on the 12 GMT hourly candle.

Fri, 09/23/2011 - 03:06 | 1700166 caerus
caerus's picture

well then, why not oct 23 2000 at .8403?  these are trades after all

Fri, 09/23/2011 - 04:02 | 1700196 hungarianboy
hungarianboy's picture

No it's time to hunt for the stops of Morgan's shorts with their target of 1.30

Fri, 09/23/2011 - 04:42 | 1700216 jabu
jabu's picture

So... we are to believe as the market goes down, so does gold and silver?  Really?  How do we lose value in gold and silver,  while the market and dollor tank?  Welcome to your world makes no sense.  That's the end.  Deal with it.

Fri, 09/23/2011 - 04:59 | 1700221 johngaltfla
johngaltfla's picture

So based on the statement "theoretical loss" does this mean their 8K statements are "theoretical" also?

Fri, 09/23/2011 - 05:42 | 1700232 janus
janus's picture

my favorite part was the 4.2% 'theoretical' loss.  sounds like the thoery of 'creation' we get from the pentacostals round here...yup, earth's only been round fer 6000 years, and dinasaurs roamed da garden with adam and eve -- she loved to ride the brontosauraus! why? cause goldman sez!

really, that 4.2% 'theoretical' loss is more like 64%...i mean, when you factor in stuff like gold, swiss franc farce (1.2 peg), the acutal plays called by this moron, and, then it start to get into near 100% when you start to ask questions about alternative investments.

I am so happy that God populated wall street with morons.  but, all the same, i would like a challenge.

Fri, 09/23/2011 - 06:02 | 1700240 scratch_and_sniff
scratch_and_sniff's picture

I find it hard to beleive that anyone would have held on to that position, and if they did, im sorry to say that they deserve the pain and they should really find something useful to do with their money.

Fri, 09/23/2011 - 06:13 | 1700246 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

their call's on oil and gold make them look vulnerable to me. trying to deep six Morgan Stanley doesn't help either--but once a Johnny Rotten always a Johnny Rotten.

Fri, 09/23/2011 - 06:26 | 1700253 falak pema
falak pema's picture

the real question in this turn-about is : who manipulates whom today on WS. It was FED's Zirp/QE play for the last ten months that led the way...And G Sux followed suit like the man behind the curtain, as lead FED share holder/mindset maker. Now the FED is visibly out of bullets and the man behind the curtain can't have others to execute his sleight of hands. He has to come out into the open on main street, his gun now visible in holster. We may be heading to OK corral, if the FED stays impotent...and the market turbulence does not subside. The Oligarchs HATE uncertainty they don't concoct/orchestrate themselves.

Fri, 09/23/2011 - 06:27 | 1700254 GFORCE
GFORCE's picture

According to astrology and cycles, 2012 will be the low for stocks. All this is just noise.

The economy will still be dreadful for years but stcoks will be part of a switch from government to private assets as bonds collapse and currencies fail.

The moronic and bankers are fighting destiny.

They didn't spot the boom, they didn't see the bust, they didn't fix anything... yet in this world of meek consumer socialists, they will carry on in office and be paid handsomely for their failures.

God bless.

 

Fri, 09/23/2011 - 07:25 | 1700314 LongSoupLine
LongSoupLine's picture

bailout-du-jour-7.1 coming for Goldman.  Afterall, a crapload (see: campaign donation list) of Congressional "insiders" are losing money due to this...(not to mention all the Treasury, SEC, CFTC, etc, etc Goldman proxies).

Fri, 09/23/2011 - 07:30 | 1700320 LongSoupLine
LongSoupLine's picture

LMAO!!

Goldman's Jim O'Neill phone-in on CNBS 3 minutes ago...

"Good luck...and finger's crossed"

 

Well, pretty safe to say Goldman's past the "break glass only in emergency" stage.

Fri, 09/23/2011 - 07:42 | 1700353 msmith
msmith's picture
AUDUSD has continued to show weakness and should drop lower. Here is an analysis. http://bit.ly/rr0vEZ - looking for a break lower.
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