Goldman Capitulates On Long EURUSD Call

Tyler Durden's picture

Just when it seemed that Goldman's all time unbest sell side analyst, FX "guru" Thomas Stolper, may actually have a strike at bat with his long suffereing EURUSD call which has had a worse Sharpe ratio than even John Paulson's hedge fund over the past 12 months, we are sad to inform our readers that Stolper is and continues to be the perfect contrarian signal (pari passu with that other all time fade: Barton "Notorious" Biggs) with a 0.000 statistical average (which, as everyone knows, is just as valuable as a 1.000). Because just as we predicted earlier today, when we said that "Goldman is about to announce it was just stopped out on its 1.55 EURUSD "tactical" trade", Goldman has just announced that it was "Stopped out of long EUR/$." Something tells us the slow money will not be happy to read this when they roll into the office between 10 am and 1 pm tomorrow.

Trade Update : Stopped out of long EUR/$


Having traded for a while quite closely to our stop, our long EUR/$ recommendation has finally been stopped out for a theoretical loss of 4.2% including carry.


We recommended this idea on the back of two main assumptions: continued Dollar downside pressure and a gradual decline in the fiscal risk premium in the Eurozone. The latter has obviously been rising in recent months, but at the same time Dollar downside pressures also intensified through July and August as illustrated by very weak BBoP data in recent months. As a result, EUR/$ remained range bound for most of the summer. However, the recent sharp increase in risk aversion, much of this originating in Europe, and upward pressure on the USD across a wide range of currencies lately, has pushed the cross below our 1.35 closing stop.

The simple take home: never, ever bet, against betting against Goldman Sachs. Ever.

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Storch's picture

Time for my european vacation

Michael's picture

Sales not going so good for CNBC stock market Gorilla Trade sales staff lately.

Watching CNBC on mute looks like a Gorilla Trade commercial.

Mauibrad's picture

Up almost all night, Tyler?   A late night release.  Yeah, Midwest and West Coasties will get this changing Goldman call too late tomorrow.

Aeonios's picture

Oh shit? Does that mean that morgan stanley might get saved on account of their dollar liabilities devaluing relative to their EUR assets? Cause that would be exceptionally lame :|.

EDIT: Nevermind, I'm reading this backwards. They past tense made a long EURUSD recommendation and now took an awesome loss for it. Too bad I'm not short goldman.

Blorf's picture

How can this only be a 4.2% loss? We are to believe that they use no leverage on FX trades?

What the fuck is a "theoretical loss"?

Edward Fiatski's picture

4.2% loss in subscription fees of clueless cocksuckers.

They didn't actually hold a long trade, thus theoretical loss. LOL

jeff montanye's picture

a theoretical loss might also be one the customers suffer as opposed to the firm: cf.  

Edward Fiatski's picture

Indeed, the memo states quite clearly that, "our long EUR/$ recommendation has finally been stopped out for a theoretical loss of 4.2% including carry."


Well, I guess, enjoy the carry bucks, you dumb fucks.

caerus's picture

it's what i report to the irs

TheBadgersSett's picture

what pleasant bed time reading

Michael's picture

If people with 401k's haven't learned what happens to their retirement portfolio, ala Dot-Com bubble bust and housing bubble led stock market bust of 2008, then they deserve to lose everything.

The great depression caused the stock market to lose 90% back then. I fully expect that to happen again this time.

Caviar Emptor's picture

The irony here is that reflation and bailout of failed institutions and markets ensures that the market will be over valued for much longer than it was after 1929 when a reset was allowed to happen followed by 5 years of booming GDP growth

NumNutt's picture

what the fuck is with the Effin vodka add, it is covering up the posted article and I can't get it to minimize.....Oh and hope Goldman Sachs CEO finds a nice warm spot in hell....

AustriAnnie's picture

Same happened to me and I was screaming "Minimize! Get out of the way I don't want no Effen Vodka!"

AustriAnnie's picture

then i realized I could refresh the page, calmed down, and realized a shot or two might do me good.....

Ketsa's picture

You should use firefox with the adblock addon. no more ads, and you will wonder why you waited so long.

Richard Chesler's picture

It couldn't happen to a nicer bunch of corrupt connected insiders.


caerus's picture

terrible timing...i'll take the other side...eur rallies

Yen Cross's picture

Couldn't be the model funds buying eur/aud ?  The trade is shifting as we speak yards & yards!


   OOPs Goldies is caught short again!

reinhardt001's picture

Tyler, what's the scoop on the late night flash crash in /HG in progress?

Edward Fiatski's picture


Predictable; now, 1.3399 intraday - FULL STEAM AHEAD AHEAD. :)

MFL8240's picture

Goldman needs to first get information from Bernanke and Geithner, than we can expect a call on the EUR/USD.  I thought the idea that they would make a call on their own was a cute joke!  Thanks for the humor.

Yen Cross's picture

 I can't wait to blow Goldies into the porto potty!  Goldman Sachs can fail, and the moat is filled with quick sand!


          That bank can fail!    I started my first very young. It's about the young Man /Woman taking risk.

                               (Your loyalty lies with in your self)

YesWeKahn's picture

That's God's job

Edward Fiatski's picture

Hold on,

"However, the recent sharp increase in risk aversion, much of this originating in Europe, and upward pressure on the USD across a wide range of currencies lately, has pushed the cross below our 1.35 closing stop."


A FX trader couldn't see the macro of this? Who are the dumb motherfuckers, who listened to these calls? You fuck faces ruined my charts: now all I have are countless dojis hanging around the intraday highs, you piece of shit clueless morons.

I'm looking forward to those stops you have just below 1.34, bitch.

Damage Inc.'s picture

Damnit, guess I'll have close out my EUO in the morning.

Yen Cross's picture

  The markets are starting to retrace. A one way train takes a while to slow down<

Caviar Emptor's picture

Goldie's call: misplaced faith in endless, self-serving Fed money printing

Night Owl Trader's picture

"ruined my charts: now all I have are countless dojis hanging around the intraday highs"

Holy moly, and I though it was just me.

The Night Owl says "Hoo" to my fellow insomniacs.

Yen Cross's picture

Doji's are good range trade candles. I'll ask for your advice on that range trade. Look @ the daily candles. Need I say more?

Yen Cross's picture

Goldies captulated last week on the euro call.  They held 1/2 the trade.  I'll send the article over.

  Citi caved in as well!    I'm building a massive aud/chf position as payback!


 I'll find the other articles.

vegas's picture

Seriously, how do these fucks stay employed? A fucking chimp would at least get something right every once in a while. And at year end he will get a big fat bonus.

Edward Fiatski's picture

Constant rotation of suckers. Notice how this news piece was released at 2 AM at night in the US.

Yen Cross's picture

 I'm on a G500 2/3 the way to Singapore  ya knucklehead!

chump666's picture

4.2% loss! They got played...nice.


chump666's picture

Now the billion dollar plus longs on the AUD will get pulled. 

Edward Fiatski's picture

Retail traders are over the top with longs on AUD, I still think EUR has room to fall below 1.34, very sharply.

Yen Cross's picture

 Feeling the love  ( Star Bright?)  You are a joke! eur has already hit 1.34.  The correlation is shifting star boy, run -run for your commission!

chump666's picture

what you got is a liquidation trade, so monies are going into USD's on everything.  Which causes funding squeeze in countries that have relied on  inflows.  It ends.  What we should watch for is China refixing the peg.  They do that, get ready for a massive trade war IMO. 

Yen Cross's picture

Exact opposite. The trade will be rebuilt to the last retrace 1.07 level. As long as RBA is paying 4.755 ON YOUR MONEY IT'S A CARRY TRADE.  The longs got taken out, and now it's easy to add long again!

atomicwasted's picture

It's all about who's the best looking horse at the glue factory.  Today, the USD.  Next wee, November, 2012, who knows?

Yen Cross's picture

I'm short the usd. With a 1/3 hedge. I'll probably take that off  for the weekend.

caerus's picture

1.348 inviolable i may be the booze

Yen Cross's picture

I'm printing a real time 1.3510.  Perhaps you should check your charts?

caerus's picture

i see that...point was bottom at 1.3480ish...else i'm losing some money

Yen Cross's picture

Bottom was 9-22 1.33843 on the 12 GMT hourly candle.

caerus's picture

well then, why not oct 23 2000 at .8403?  these are trades after all

hungarianboy's picture

No it's time to hunt for the stops of Morgan's shorts with their target of 1.30