Goldman: A Clean Resolution From Friday's Summit Is Now Ruled Out; Outcome To Fall Short Of Market Expectations

Tyler Durden's picture




The schizophrenia continues, this time as Goldman lays out the "Failure Frday" hypothesis in an attempt to incite some waterfalling risk off-taking, leading to escalating interventions by domestic governments (all of which captured just for this eventuality) and culmiating with the unleashing of the puppet head of the ECB, but not before GS has had the opportunity to sequester some assets on the cheap. We have rehashed this outlook so many times we won't repeat it again, suffice to say: those who want to know what happens, need merely to look at what happened in 2008, and who ended up gaining the most. In the meantime, this is what Goldman expects of the "summit to end all summits" - "Our bottom line is the following: the ‘clean’ solutions that would have seen clear resolution of that impasse appear to have been ruled out following Monday’s German/French meeting. That makes something altogether fuzzier likely to emerge from Friday, and this risks falling short of market expectations. The sequencing that we believe is being followed will be delayed further into the new year." Said otherwise - yet another failure. Which confirms that the Christmas rally over the past week has been nothing but. And all such "career risk" mitigation exercises in lemmingry, end in the same way: with someone defecting first.

From Goldman's Andrew Benito and Huw Pil

Raised expectations risk disappointment on Friday

Markets have advanced in recent days, seemingly in anticipation of significant progress from this week’s EU Summit. In this piece we set out our expectations for what will emerge from Friday’s Summit.

There has been tangible progress made in addressing the Euro area’s policy-making challenges in recent weeks. A framework for where agreement needs be found and in what order has emerged. Ultimately, that sequence of actions, involving national governments, Euro-area fiscal governance and the ECB, maps out a path to resolving the Euro area’s key policy challenges. But this week, culminating in Friday’s Summit, sees a return to the core ‘impasse’ between the French and German visions of Euro area fiscal governance. Repeating the experience of previous summits, above all we expect high-level statements to emerge from Friday. Lacking an ‘encompassing’ solution, the specifics are likely to take time for politicians to clarify and those details may become the focus of markets, after the meeting.

Our bottom line is the following: the ‘clean’ solutions that would have seen clear resolution of that impasse appear to have been ruled out following Monday’s German/French meeting. That makes something altogether fuzzier likely to emerge from Friday, and this risks falling short of market expectations. The sequencing that we believe is being followed will be delayed further into the new year.

Stock and flow problems are being addressed through ‘sequencing’

As ECB President Draghi highlighted in a speech last week, policy-making is following a path of ‘sequencing’. The sequence is a play in three Acts. And the ECB plays its role – which we believe will consist of purchasing sovereign debt on a much larger scale - in the third Act. We consider that role for the ECB an important aspect of ‘mutualising’ some of the debt overhang, as we have described it in the past. But crucially, this comes after the two prior Acts: 1) national governments’ commitments to additional fiscal adjustment, such as Italy’s announcements at the weekend and 2) a ‘fiscal compact’ that agrees on the future fiscal governance in the Euro area.

The fiscal compact (‘Act II’) needs to agree on what the future form of fiscal union will look like. There are many potential options. But a key development on Monday was that two options that would have resolved the past impasse most cleanly have been ruled out. Chancellor Merkel has ruled out the Eurobond – that would have directly ‘mutualised’ excessive debt in the peripheral economies (the ‘stock problem’). President Sarkozy, meanwhile, has ruled out the fiscal intrusion that would have given a formal veto against national budgets (addressing the risk of a future ‘flow problem’ of high deficits).

Having seen these two clean ‘corner solutions’ ruled out, puts us in the realm of somewhat messier ‘grey areas’ for what to expect from Friday and whether what emerges will satisfy market expectations. We also believe that the areas where agreement is likely are less substantial and less cleanly directed at the underlying stock and flow problems facing the Euro area. Focusing on where agreement is more likely, even if it is less substantial, would repeat the pattern of the October Summit.

Market expectations appear high that the agreement will prove sufficient for the ECB to intervene on a much larger scale. Trying to second-guess what is the necessary threshold for the ECB adds a further layer of complexity to the assessment.

Within this realm of ‘shades of grey’ what we can expect to emerge on Friday includes:

  • Further details on ‘automatic sanctions’ against countries that fail to comply with budget deficit rules. The Sarkozy/Merkel meeting on Monday agreed to change the burden of proof that prompts a sanction, compared to excessive deficit procedure rules. Under the likely proposals, sanctions can be blocked only when a qualified majority oppose the sanction (15 from 17 states).But based on Monday’s meeting, it is unclear whether any new sanctions are likely to emerge. These additional sanctions may still follow. They might include financial penalties and/or involve a loss of voting rights.
  • Balanced budget rules and debt ceilings - Although it seems the European Court of Justice will not be able to declare national budgets invalid, it is likely to be able to state whether national legislation (eg, constitutional debt ceilings) guarantee compliance with required debt ceilings.
  • Private sector involvement – Further clarity on the conditions under which private sector involvement (PSI) could be expected in any future debt restructuring. That includes clarifying what PSI being “in accordance with IMF rules” means. Article 12 of the ESM states that financial assistance requires adequate and proportionate private sector involvement in any debt restructuring. It is currently unclear whether Article 12 of the ESM will be changed.
  • European Stability Mechanism - the permanent successor to the European Financial Stability Facility and is likely to be brought forward by at least 6 months so that it is in place by end-2012. The ESM is significant partly because it will have some paid-in capital behind it. The ESM may also have access to the ECB, as a credit institution.
  • Treaty change – this includes the option of a second treaty applying to the 17 Euro area members. This would represent a move towards the German position and would be negotiated expected by March 2012.

Significant progress along these dimensions has been made and seems likely to be announced on Friday. That progress is meaningful. Where our view differs from those views that emphasize this agreement is that we see these factors as still falling short of directly addressing the core challenges facing the Euro area.

Where the IMF fits in

The sequencing we have outlined applies to the timing of commitments being made in that order (national governments’ fiscal adjustment – Euro area agreement on fiscal governance – ECB asset purchases). But in practice each commitment will play out alongside each other. That makes monitoring and, potentially, disciplining those who do not live up to their commitments important. Indeed, the role is especially important in the period of transition as we move towards any new arrangements enshrined in Treaty changes. The IMF may have a special role to play in providing this monitoring and discipline during the transition phase. Given its experience of monitoring and imposing ‘conditionality’ through gradual disbursement of funds, the IMF can make the ‘bridge’ to those new arrangements more stable than otherwise. But this IMF role is unlikely to be clarified in the near term.

This brief overview, alongside experience from the October Summit, adds to our sense that what emerges will be another step forward, it will build on past progress but it will also involve some degree of ‘wishful thinking’. The new year will be required to clarify what is meant by ‘fiscal union’. We expect the ECB to move progressively towards more proactive purchases on a larger scale. But any such actions will fall short of attempts to ‘cap spreads’. We do not think the ECB to act more proactively soon, based on the commitments and statements of intent that emerge on Friday.

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Wed, 12/07/2011 - 00:35 | 1953784 Stuck on Zero
Stuck on Zero's picture

I've discovered how the EC is bailing out their banks.  It is alternately announcing good news and then bad news time after time while feeding the inside info to the banks.  The banks play the markets and earn billions.  No bailout needed.  Same here BTW.

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 00:55 | 1953844 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

Stuck, you are probably right. The old game is now being played out in the open. No need to be shy or secretive anymore even. 

Because most sheep now believe that being hammered by the master is a pleasurable thing. 

Gold Man-Sachs. Tells the whole story really.

ORI

/the-plan/

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 01:00 | 1953860 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

The longer the bullshit lasts...the less it smells

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 01:05 | 1953875 spiral_eyes
spiral_eyes's picture

It's sad that Europe is going to fail to liquidate and turn its economy into a non-capitalist zombie, just like Japan and more recently America.

These managerialists and central planners need to learn about creative destruction: without liquidation, markets and nations stagnate. Old junk doesn't clear and open the market for new businesses and ideas. 

I blame MBA programs, and the concept of "governance".

http://azizonomics.com/2011/12/06/capitalism-explained-for-angela-merkel/

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 01:11 | 1953891 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Agree. That's what I keep saying about politics playing a greater role in the proposed "solutions" going forward. Bottom line, their plan will result in contracting economies not just for a day but for decades. As that becomes less acceptable to a growing impoverished underclass they're going to need to add repression to the plan

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 02:29 | 1953996 Dugald
Dugald's picture

Repression was factored in quite some time ago, have you not noticed, been busy playing with your plonker and lost track?

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 05:01 | 1954098 jeff montanye
jeff montanye's picture

yes.  don't tase me bro is due for an update to don't drone me bro:

http://www.salon.com/2011/12/06/nprs_domestic_drone_commercial/singleton/

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 01:31 | 1953925 candyman
candyman's picture

But more specifically, what is the broader market seeing that ramps the ES. Nothing makes sense...anymore ( circa 2008). i dont need anybody to tell me yada, yada, just a personal reflection.

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 01:06 | 1953879 palmereldritch
palmereldritch's picture

ORI,

I think their salaries have risen significantly since 2009 but really...it's not about the money

http://www.investmentpostcards.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/08/humor-gold...

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 02:22 | 1953986 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

Ahhhahaha! Classic and hilarious and tragi-comic. Thanks for that Palmer.

ORI

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 05:08 | 1954099 jeff montanye
jeff montanye's picture

i like that the loot includes necklaces and candlesticks not just coins: obviously stolen in robbery beyond mere fraud, like the upgrade we've recently endured (not a bug, an app) from say countrywide financial to say mf global.

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 01:03 | 1953866 SnobGobbler
SnobGobbler's picture

fuzzy outcome = bored (sheep-moon-blink) of the lies by the time said "can" gets kicked.....2 staged weeks...  didnt that dow jonz do well last week during the 401k statement end-of-the-month rally... ..

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 05:52 | 1954119 Fíréan
Fíréan's picture

With considerqation to the fact that ECB President Draghi was once vice chairman and managing director of Goldman Sachs International, does GS get information to which other banks are not privy or before public prsentation ?

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 06:33 | 1954130 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

If you're working for GS and want to keep working there then yes...you better know what the boss already knows anyways cuz the "have those confabs and sheet." anywho what seems "fuzzy" is this article. I'm tellin' ya--OB Wan's on the Death Star and he's just shut down the tractor-beam...whatever a tractor beam is. THE DEATH STAR IS VULNERABLE!

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 07:59 | 1954174 Big Slick
Big Slick's picture

My Lord, we've analyzed their attack plan and there IS a threat.  Shall I have your Golden Parachute standing by?

 

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 09:15 | 1954333 JungleJim
JungleJim's picture

Doe's the Pope shit in the woods ? .....

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 00:37 | 1953788 I think I need ...
I think I need to buy a gun's picture

does anyone have turbo timmys itinerary??????

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 00:40 | 1953797 I think I need ...
I think I need to buy a gun's picture

by the way do you see the wedge/pennant in that GLD forming? From the august high......resolution to the situation soon,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 01:00 | 1953821 palmereldritch
palmereldritch's picture

What's Paulson's 20?  Is it time to dust off that pep talk on martial law again...?

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 05:11 | 1954103 jeff montanye
Wed, 12/07/2011 - 00:37 | 1953791 prains
prains's picture

GS admits dry humping will not make a baby! wow

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 05:37 | 1954113 Popo
Popo's picture

Well... If GS said it, there's a good chance someone's already pregnant.

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 00:37 | 1953792 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

They can contain the toxic waste! Like they did at Fukushima!

Oh.....Wait....

Radioactive cesium found in Japan baby milk

http://worldnews.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2011/12/06/9252051-radiactive-cesiu...

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 00:56 | 1953848 Boxed Merlot
Boxed Merlot's picture

They can contain the toxic waste...

 

Speaking of containing toxic japanese issues, I found it amusing that Japan is offering government issued gold coins to those purchasing government bonds.  As a show of support the PM displayed his commemorative coin after scooping up low interest gov't bonds.  That's some serious mixing of metaphores. imo.

 

And where's ZH's take on Teneo?  Please don't tell me TD's salary is paid for by Teneo's crack team of media handlers.  From Teneo's website:

Teneo Strategy's core advisory services include:

Corporate and Financial Communications
Messaging to internal and external audiences (including investors, analysts, employees, and media); brand management

Special Situations Communications
Communications related to M&A transactions, IPOs, bankruptcies & restructurings, change management and other unique situations

Investor Relations
Program development and implementation, earnings preparation, financial calendar management and shareholder analysis

Crisis Management
Communications in times of crisis, planning/readiness, risk mapping and response strategies

Government Affairs
Advice on legislative and political developments, and government relations strategies

Corporate Strategy
Advice on strategy development and managing key initiatives/projects

 

ZH makes the connection with every other misfit organization, why the seeming hands off treatment with this Corzine affiliate?

 

Just wonderin'

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 01:12 | 1953894 Boxed Merlot
Boxed Merlot's picture

And please, frn50k a month is just the retainer, subscription fee.   Personally I'd like to see the real fee and services schedule, you know, the one they present when your need for their various "special" services actually occurs. 

This is certainly not the kind of business the average person or company in the US would ever need. 

Interesting how they offer to help navigate through the mess of regulatory mayhem they in previous lives are materially responsible for creating.  They may as well call themselves extortions-r-us.  imho.

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 05:14 | 1954104 jeff montanye
jeff montanye's picture

change you can't refuse.

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 00:41 | 1953794 sitenine
sitenine's picture

It's pretty obvious at this point that Central Banks are the lenders of last (only) resort, and Sovereigns are the borrowers of last (only) resort, and Sovereigns are running out of borrowing capacity.  We're running out of Ponzi real quick folks.

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 00:50 | 1953829 MarcusLCrassus
MarcusLCrassus's picture

Its the world's greatest rendition of 3-card monty. 

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 01:09 | 1953889 palmereldritch
palmereldritch's picture

They're all monty and no card.

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 00:39 | 1953795 whatsinaname
whatsinaname's picture

Put simply, gold and crude oil (especially Brent) needs to drop substantially before ECB goes wahoo ?

Also, Fed will get a chance to do a parallel QE3 if oil/gold fall low enough ?

Chances of that happening ?

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 00:50 | 1953828 hairball48
hairball48's picture

The chances of QE3 are 100%...actually they've never stopped printing. The only question is what those criminals at the Fed will call QE3, QE4...QEn until the whole frigging Ponzi scheme finally collapses.

I'm buying gold, silver, and more 3" 00Buckshot rounds :)

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 02:38 | 1954006 Dugald
Dugald's picture

I hope you are right I'm betting all my paper crap on it, just one shot is all I hope for......too damned old to do it all over..

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 00:44 | 1953807 hairball48
hairball48's picture

This guys are so full of shit.

There IS no way out. The Eurozone is bankrupt, broke, insolvent.

All this nonsense boils down to ever more creative(in their minds anyway) ways to create more debt and print more money.

CNBC and the sheeple might be impressed, but I'm not.

 

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 00:47 | 1953822 zorba THE GREEK
zorba THE GREEK's picture

Neither am I, Hairball.

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 00:56 | 1953850 SHEEPFUKKER
SHEEPFUKKER's picture

Any chance people get bored with this story and just forget about it, similar to the super committee which produced nothing and the markets didn't seem to care for the most part.  If they just keep extending and pretending, people may actually just lose interest and start to believe it may never end. It's either default by printing or just straight up default. It's been that way for nearly two years now. 

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 02:42 | 1954014 Dugald
Dugald's picture

You'r right, but don't overlook the sneakyness of combined banksters and politicians, they can screw the whole ballgame in just fifteen minutes

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 03:23 | 1954049 qussl3
qussl3's picture

Actually its the world that is broke.

There does not exist the wealth to pay off the debt, without a major repricing of real assets versus their financial counterparts.

This is before taking into account mass liquidation and its impact on price.

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 07:11 | 1954139 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

"The Eurozone is bankrupt, broke, insolvent"

well, if you are really willing to treat it as an aggregate, then the Debt to GDP of the EZ is at 85% and it's a net exporter...

but of course this would be spoiling the party... I might get the chance of making a lot of unpopular remarks in 2012 when the currency zones which have much more then 100% and are net importers have their troubles... not that it will make me happy, though...

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 00:44 | 1953809 UP Forester
UP Forester's picture

Cue circus music in 3, 2, 1....

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 00:53 | 1953835 navy62802
Wed, 12/07/2011 - 01:21 | 1953905 palmereldritch
Wed, 12/07/2011 - 01:36 | 1953931 UP Forester
UP Forester's picture

Not bad, but I think this'll be the EuroCircus theme:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BNWpZ-Y_KvU

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 02:09 | 1953972 palmereldritch
palmereldritch's picture

Oh yeah...the Illuminati Anti-Christmas Carol...good call

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 00:47 | 1953813 navy62802
navy62802's picture

You know that 8% pop in the Dow over the past week or so? Get ready to say bye bye to it over the course of one, perhaps 2, days if this summit flops on its face. And get ready for a new gold pop.

Most likely course of action coming out of this summit is that they schedule another summit, at which they plan to resolve to come up with a new plan for Europe's future prosperity. It's all a charade, and the markets are buying it hook, line and sinker.

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 03:10 | 1954033 Hansel
Hansel's picture

Ha!  Get real.  No one in the world expects anything from the summit.

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 00:45 | 1953814 zorba THE GREEK
zorba THE GREEK's picture

So it all boils down to PIIGS giving up governing their future to receive bailouts from Germany and company.

If PIIGS agree to this, it's like WW2 without guns and the Germans win.

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 01:07 | 1953882 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

So it all boils down to PIIGS giving up governing their future 

By now it's clear: it was just the PIIGS as late as this summer, but now it's spreading fast all over Eastern Europe, the UK, Denmark, and right to the core of France and Germany as they struggle with the twin toxicities of systemically sensitive banks and sovereign debt. Germany nationalizing Commerzbank this week was a tell. There's plenty more toxic paper in the closet and under the carpet. 

Nobody knows how it will shake out, but one thing is for sure: the numbers will never add up and politics will have to play a major part because the real economies are going to tank if they proceed as planned

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 00:50 | 1953819 baby_BLYTHE
baby_BLYTHE's picture

Gold will never be this cheap again. These past few weeks have been a God-send to longterm PM holders. Crash the system...keep the central banks honest... buy hard currency.

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 02:22 | 1953984 Vlad Tepid
Vlad Tepid's picture

...keep the central banks honest...

That implies that they were once honest...

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 00:49 | 1953827 rfaze
rfaze's picture

Another plan to make a plan..... Why doesn't someone just tell Uncle Ben who to make the check out to.

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 00:55 | 1953843 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

Here we go again.

Goldman Sachs

The most despised, reviled, hated firm by Zero Hedge

Suddenly, whatever their "experts" have to say is now considered "important"

Gimme a break!!!

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 01:32 | 1953926 sullymandias
sullymandias's picture

Suddenly? TD has been reposting GS statements for a long time now. I think the idea is that it's useful to pay attention to what your opponent is saying.

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 02:05 | 1953969 jomama
jomama's picture

lmao.

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 02:16 | 1953979 Stack Trace
Stack Trace's picture

Thanks RobotreTarder! Thanks, there I fixed the spelling. ;-)

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 00:55 | 1953845 YesWeKahn
YesWeKahn's picture

We know the stability pact: Bernanke prints.

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 00:57 | 1953852 thecoloredsky
thecoloredsky's picture

Thank you for watching Act I. Please enjoy the intermission music as we change the reels.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EHOBw6XwqRo

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 00:58 | 1953856 Flocking swans
Flocking swans's picture

Although it might be a little bit lemmingry, I think I'll go get some Precious Metals, Tinned Goods And Small Calibre Weapons....*

*I really just wanted to try using 'lemmingry' in a sentence...

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 05:27 | 1954109 jeff montanye
jeff montanye's picture

i think what you want is "lemmingy".  lemmingry is a noun.

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 00:59 | 1953858 Amused2Death
Amused2Death's picture

"Markets have advanced in recent days, seemingly in anticipation of significant progress from this week’s EU Summit. In this piece we set out our expectations for what will emerge from Friday’s Summit."

 

Really, that's why the markets advanced in recent days?  I don't need to read further, the guy is full of shit...

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 04:46 | 1954094 Havana White
Havana White's picture

I think much has to do with the Eurozone's problems being generally absent from mainstream news coverage and thus a broadly perceived assumption that at least for now their problems are being kept at bay; selling has slowed.

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 01:04 | 1953870 Duffminster
Duffminster's picture

What do you make of this? And how will such disclosure affect the likely stealth bailouts that will continue and likely accelerate in my opinion:

Audit of the Federal Reserve Reveals $16 Trillion in Secret Bailouts

"...

When you have conservative Republican stalwarts like Jim DeMint(R-SC) and Ron Paul(R-TX) as well as self identified Democratic socialists like Bernie Sanders all fighting against the Federal Reserve, you know that it is no longer an issue of Right versus Left. When you have every single member of the Republican Party in Congress and progressive Congressmen like Dennis Kucinich sponsoring a bill to audit the Federal Reserve, you realize that the Federal Reserve is an entity onto itself, which has no oversight and no accountability.

Americans should be swelled with anger and outrage at the abysmal state of affairs when an unelected group of bankers can create money out of thin air and give it out to megabanks and supercorporations like Halloween candy. If the Federal Reserve and the bankers who control it believe that they can continue to devalue the savings of Americans and continue to destroy the US economy, they will have to face the realization that their trillion dollar printing presses will eventually plunder the world economy.

The list of institutions that received the most money from the Federal Reserve can be found on page 131 of the GAO Audit and are as follows..

Citigroup: $2.5 trillion ($2,500,000,000,000)
Morgan Stanley: $2.04 trillion ($2,040,000,000,000)
Merrill Lynch: $1.949 trillion ($1,949,000,000,000)
Bank of America: $1.344 trillion ($1,344,000,000,000)
Barclays PLC (United Kingdom): $868 billion ($868,000,000,000)
Bear Sterns: $853 billion ($853,000,000,000)
Goldman Sachs: $814 billion ($814,000,000,000)
Royal Bank of Scotland (UK): $541 billion ($541,000,000,000)
JP Morgan Chase: $391 billion ($391,000,000,000)
Deutsche Bank (Germany): $354 billion ($354,000,000,000)
UBS (Switzerland): $287 billion ($287,000,000,000)
Credit Suisse (Switzerland): $262 billion ($262,000,000,000)
Lehman Brothers: $183 billion ($183,000,000,000)
Bank of Scotland (United Kingdom): $181 billion ($181,000,000,000)
BNP Paribas (France): $175 billion ($175,000,000,000) ..."

From the Senate Office of Bernie Sanders on the GAO report auditing the Fed

 

 

 

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 01:13 | 1953895 navy62802
navy62802's picture

It is truly an unmitigated disaster and is blowing up in their faces right now.

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 01:15 | 1953897 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

how will such disclosure affect the likely stealth bailouts that will continue and likely accelerate

At some point they'll declare anyone opposed to the Fed "Enemy combatants". All proceedings will be sealed under the National Security umbrella. And we'll just get press releases monthly from the ministry of truth 

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 09:21 | 1954353 Widowmaker
Widowmaker's picture

All enemy combatants and terrorists will be shot dead.

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 01:33 | 1953923 hairball48
hairball48's picture

"Americans should be swelled with anger and outrage at the abysmal state of affairs when an unelected group of bankers can create money out of thin air and give it out to megabanks and supercorporations like Halloween candy."

 

The sheeple should be outraged, but first

a) They would have to actually understand how an economy works... of course they don't because most are:

b) Far more interested in who's fucking who in Hollywood and what Oprah's new house looks like, etc. etc. 

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 03:16 | 1954039 Hansel
Hansel's picture

c) Also because no one on the planet knows exactly "how an economy works."

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 08:12 | 1954190 Big Slick
Big Slick's picture

I tend to disagree.  The free market knows how an economy works.  Its just too bad the free market was taken out back and shot in 2008.

 

PS - How's Grettel?

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 09:23 | 1954355 Widowmaker
Widowmaker's picture

Wrong, 1913. It's nice to see generational theft works!

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 01:48 | 1953949 quacker
quacker's picture

There is no question about it Duff, that private banking entity that disguises itself as a government agency but is not, aka the Federal Reserve, is dab smack in the middle of perpetrating the largest theft in world history. The larest transfer of wealth from the bottom to the top - picking the pockets, the lifeblood, the very soul of a nation and a people.

It is the largest criminal organization that ever existed.

And shutting it down is the most important issue of our age.

Sadly though, 99.7% of the people don't even have a clue what it is.

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 01:57 | 1953960 Flocking swans
Flocking swans's picture

RE: Bernie Sanders....  Can I get a ZH poll... I'd like to know....

GREEN Arrow if you are closer to a BernieS. 'Democratic Socialist'

They believe that both the economy and society should be run democratically—to meet public needs, not to make profits for a few, where ordinary Americans can participate in the many decisions that affect our lives.

  Or a RED Arrow if you are closer to a RonP. Libertarian I'd give a definition of what that was, but I really don't know what the definition is of a pro-life Libertarian is.
Wed, 12/07/2011 - 05:39 | 1954115 Havana White
Havana White's picture

That $16 trillion figure stunned me at first.  $16 trillion?!  How could that be?  I then learned the figure was cumulative.  A recent Bloomberg piece discusses it:

"The $16 trillion number cited by the Fed may refer to a Government Accountability Office report of July 21, 2011, that used a different methodology. Bloomberg built its database to show amounts outstanding, while the GAO tallied cumulative loans. For example, if a bank borrowed $1 billion overnight for 100 nights, Bloomberg would say the bank had a $1 billion balance at the Fed for 100 days; the GAO would say the bank borrowed $100 billion. The former is a more useful economic measurement."

I'm just clarifying, not defending the fork-toothed Fed scumbags.

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 01:05 | 1953871 Pancho Villa
Pancho Villa's picture

What?! You mean Friday's EU Summit might not fix the euro?

Where is LookingWithAmazement? Someone please say it ain't so!

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 01:11 | 1953892 San Diego Gold Bug
San Diego Gold Bug's picture

Uh Ooohhh,

   The next gun show in So Cal is Dec. 17-18th.  Get your ammo while you can....I already assume that you are smart enough to have bought gold and silver!!

Not jerry's Bitch

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 01:14 | 1953896 chump666
chump666's picture

They're just pissed markets are topped for 2011

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 01:16 | 1953899 msorense
msorense's picture

If Goldman is lowering expectations for Friday then we are going to have a huge rally right?

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 01:23 | 1953913 Amused2Death
Amused2Death's picture

Or it could be that their trading desks made the wrong trades and they want to get back on the bandwagon...

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 07:24 | 1954147 EhKnowKneeMass
EhKnowKneeMass's picture

How's the business? Demand still strong?

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 01:17 | 1953901 i be julia
i be julia's picture

But where does it all end.

I'm guessing deflation and contraction.

http://fucklloydblankfein.blogspot.com

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 03:00 | 1954019 Threeggg
Threeggg's picture

I keep hearing this deflation theory. I think the nature of the CDS's forbids deflation thus triggering them into creating money that does not exist..................yet ! (inflation)

QE to infinity so that the CDS's won't be triggered.

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 01:26 | 1953919 El Gordo
El Gordo's picture

After reading this talk from GS, for the first time ever I'm feeling a bit optimistic about the EU prospects for the future.

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 01:37 | 1953933 StarkFistofRemoval
StarkFistofRemoval's picture

JUST RELAX.

There is nowhere to go, there is nothing to do. You knew this was coming, and there was no way to plan for it. 

You are in a crash position. Stay there. 

We are going to print. Everyone is. Just expect that shit. It is the only way to keep the game going. There is no other solution. It was this or annihilation. You always choose bad over death. It is a false choice. 

Be calm. Tomorrow the Earth will still yield food. There will still be music. People will still dance. There is time yet. Be calm. 

Follow the Golden Rule. Not the bullion rule, the Do-Unto-Others Rule. 

This is only a correction, largely by people that got too greedy and will lose money they did not have in the first place. It is all a game. The most important thing is that you help those next to you. Be calm. 

This is a paper emergency.

relax.

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 02:23 | 1953988 Stack Trace
Stack Trace's picture

But make sure to have a little of the following:

Food in the larder.

Clean drinking water.

Guns and bullets.

Gold and Silver.

More bullets.

Good friends and local connections.

More bullets...even more if you can fit them under the couch.

Whiskey and cigarettes.

Medical supplies.

Maybe a bow and some arrows.

AS MANY BULLETS AS YOU CAN BUY. Forget everything else at this point.

Ok, maybe a little tongue in cheek but I have been slowly stocking up on supplies except for the bullets, the guns, the whiskey, the cigarettes, and the medical supplies. Though I do think about it too frequently. Maybe I will go to a doctor and get a pill to help keep my nerves calm.

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 07:25 | 1954149 El Gordo
El Gordo's picture

I find stacking silver coins to be relaxing

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 08:18 | 1954203 Big Slick
Big Slick's picture

Stack Trace: "I have been slowly stocking up on supplies except for the bullets, the guns, the whiskey, the cigarettes, and the medical supplies"

Hope your kidding about the 'except' part.

In the off chance you are NOT, where do you live again??  :)

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 08:15 | 1954195 Big Slick
Big Slick's picture

StarkFist: breathing through the oxygen mask first.  Calm as a Hindu cow  :)

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 01:45 | 1953944 Heyoka Bianco
Heyoka Bianco's picture

" A Canadian broadcasting Corporation documentary, Cruel Camera, found that the lemmings used for White Wilderness were flown from Hudson Bay to Calgary, Alberta, Canada, where they did not jump off the cliff, but were in fact launched off the cliff using a turntable." 

That's actually a much more accurate representation of what's happening here and now.

 

When it looks like inflation's sunk your two cents to the dirt

It just means you don't have buy into anything



Wed, 12/07/2011 - 02:03 | 1953968 palmereldritch
palmereldritch's picture

The CBC has a storied history of snowy clime rodent fraud.

@ the 3:00 mark: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jzvoj6a2TQo

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G17Dcl8lIkM

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 01:48 | 1953946 steveo
steveo's picture

I received this email from a friend in Hawaii.   This was written before 1947.   My friends grandfather was flying a small plane for recreational enjoyment on Dec 7, 1941, flying over Honolulu as the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor (and the rest of Oahu) began.

Very interesting slice of life here.    3 pages.   What is very interesting also is the "denial".    They landed their plane during the attack, got out, moved 30 planes to separate them in case of a further attack, and then drove to the police to inform them of the attack, and the police basically laughed at them, in denial that we could have been attacked, especially by the Japanese. 

Read it.   Drop a comment.

By the way, in case you didn't know, this is the anniversary of the attack on Pearl Harbor.

http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/2011/12/pearl-harbor-attack.html

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 01:59 | 1953961 jomama
jomama's picture

man, they're callin them japs in that piece...

times are very different now.  

Wed, 12/07/2011 - 02:25 | 1953990 Stack Trace
Stack Trace's picture

Ya now we call them "Master"

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