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Goldman: A Clean Resolution From Friday's Summit Is Now Ruled Out; Outcome To Fall Short Of Market Expectations
The schizophrenia continues, this time as Goldman lays out the "Failure Frday" hypothesis in an attempt to incite some waterfalling risk off-taking, leading to escalating interventions by domestic governments (all of which captured just for this eventuality) and culmiating with the unleashing of the puppet head of the ECB, but not before GS has had the opportunity to sequester some assets on the cheap. We have rehashed this outlook so many times we won't repeat it again, suffice to say: those who want to know what happens, need merely to look at what happened in 2008, and who ended up gaining the most. In the meantime, this is what Goldman expects of the "summit to end all summits" - "Our bottom line is the following: the ‘clean’ solutions that would have seen clear resolution of that impasse appear to have been ruled out following Monday’s German/French meeting. That makes something altogether fuzzier likely to emerge from Friday, and this risks falling short of market expectations. The sequencing that we believe is being followed will be delayed further into the new year." Said otherwise - yet another failure. Which confirms that the Christmas rally over the past week has been nothing but. And all such "career risk" mitigation exercises in lemmingry, end in the same way: with someone defecting first.
From Goldman's Andrew Benito and Huw Pil
Raised expectations risk disappointment on Friday
Markets have advanced in recent days, seemingly in anticipation of significant progress from this week’s EU Summit. In this piece we set out our expectations for what will emerge from Friday’s Summit.
There has been tangible progress made in addressing the Euro area’s policy-making challenges in recent weeks. A framework for where agreement needs be found and in what order has emerged. Ultimately, that sequence of actions, involving national governments, Euro-area fiscal governance and the ECB, maps out a path to resolving the Euro area’s key policy challenges. But this week, culminating in Friday’s Summit, sees a return to the core ‘impasse’ between the French and German visions of Euro area fiscal governance. Repeating the experience of previous summits, above all we expect high-level statements to emerge from Friday. Lacking an ‘encompassing’ solution, the specifics are likely to take time for politicians to clarify and those details may become the focus of markets, after the meeting.
Our bottom line is the following: the ‘clean’ solutions that would have seen clear resolution of that impasse appear to have been ruled out following Monday’s German/French meeting. That makes something altogether fuzzier likely to emerge from Friday, and this risks falling short of market expectations. The sequencing that we believe is being followed will be delayed further into the new year.
Stock and flow problems are being addressed through ‘sequencing’
As ECB President Draghi highlighted in a speech last week, policy-making is following a path of ‘sequencing’. The sequence is a play in three Acts. And the ECB plays its role – which we believe will consist of purchasing sovereign debt on a much larger scale - in the third Act. We consider that role for the ECB an important aspect of ‘mutualising’ some of the debt overhang, as we have described it in the past. But crucially, this comes after the two prior Acts: 1) national governments’ commitments to additional fiscal adjustment, such as Italy’s announcements at the weekend and 2) a ‘fiscal compact’ that agrees on the future fiscal governance in the Euro area.
The fiscal compact (‘Act II’) needs to agree on what the future form of fiscal union will look like. There are many potential options. But a key development on Monday was that two options that would have resolved the past impasse most cleanly have been ruled out. Chancellor Merkel has ruled out the Eurobond – that would have directly ‘mutualised’ excessive debt in the peripheral economies (the ‘stock problem’). President Sarkozy, meanwhile, has ruled out the fiscal intrusion that would have given a formal veto against national budgets (addressing the risk of a future ‘flow problem’ of high deficits).
Having seen these two clean ‘corner solutions’ ruled out, puts us in the realm of somewhat messier ‘grey areas’ for what to expect from Friday and whether what emerges will satisfy market expectations. We also believe that the areas where agreement is likely are less substantial and less cleanly directed at the underlying stock and flow problems facing the Euro area. Focusing on where agreement is more likely, even if it is less substantial, would repeat the pattern of the October Summit.
Market expectations appear high that the agreement will prove sufficient for the ECB to intervene on a much larger scale. Trying to second-guess what is the necessary threshold for the ECB adds a further layer of complexity to the assessment.
Within this realm of ‘shades of grey’ what we can expect to emerge on Friday includes:
- Further details on ‘automatic sanctions’ against countries that fail to comply with budget deficit rules. The Sarkozy/Merkel meeting on Monday agreed to change the burden of proof that prompts a sanction, compared to excessive deficit procedure rules. Under the likely proposals, sanctions can be blocked only when a qualified majority oppose the sanction (15 from 17 states).But based on Monday’s meeting, it is unclear whether any new sanctions are likely to emerge. These additional sanctions may still follow. They might include financial penalties and/or involve a loss of voting rights.
- Balanced budget rules and debt ceilings - Although it seems the European Court of Justice will not be able to declare national budgets invalid, it is likely to be able to state whether national legislation (eg, constitutional debt ceilings) guarantee compliance with required debt ceilings.
- Private sector involvement – Further clarity on the conditions under which private sector involvement (PSI) could be expected in any future debt restructuring. That includes clarifying what PSI being “in accordance with IMF rules” means. Article 12 of the ESM states that financial assistance requires adequate and proportionate private sector involvement in any debt restructuring. It is currently unclear whether Article 12 of the ESM will be changed.
- European Stability Mechanism - the permanent successor to the European Financial Stability Facility and is likely to be brought forward by at least 6 months so that it is in place by end-2012. The ESM is significant partly because it will have some paid-in capital behind it. The ESM may also have access to the ECB, as a credit institution.
- Treaty change – this includes the option of a second treaty applying to the 17 Euro area members. This would represent a move towards the German position and would be negotiated expected by March 2012.
Significant progress along these dimensions has been made and seems likely to be announced on Friday. That progress is meaningful. Where our view differs from those views that emphasize this agreement is that we see these factors as still falling short of directly addressing the core challenges facing the Euro area.
Where the IMF fits in
The sequencing we have outlined applies to the timing of commitments being made in that order (national governments’ fiscal adjustment – Euro area agreement on fiscal governance – ECB asset purchases). But in practice each commitment will play out alongside each other. That makes monitoring and, potentially, disciplining those who do not live up to their commitments important. Indeed, the role is especially important in the period of transition as we move towards any new arrangements enshrined in Treaty changes. The IMF may have a special role to play in providing this monitoring and discipline during the transition phase. Given its experience of monitoring and imposing ‘conditionality’ through gradual disbursement of funds, the IMF can make the ‘bridge’ to those new arrangements more stable than otherwise. But this IMF role is unlikely to be clarified in the near term.
This brief overview, alongside experience from the October Summit, adds to our sense that what emerges will be another step forward, it will build on past progress but it will also involve some degree of ‘wishful thinking’. The new year will be required to clarify what is meant by ‘fiscal union’. We expect the ECB to move progressively towards more proactive purchases on a larger scale. But any such actions will fall short of attempts to ‘cap spreads’. We do not think the ECB to act more proactively soon, based on the commitments and statements of intent that emerge on Friday.
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I've discovered how the EC is bailing out their banks. It is alternately announcing good news and then bad news time after time while feeding the inside info to the banks. The banks play the markets and earn billions. No bailout needed. Same here BTW.
Stuck, you are probably right. The old game is now being played out in the open. No need to be shy or secretive anymore even.
Because most sheep now believe that being hammered by the master is a pleasurable thing.
Gold Man-Sachs. Tells the whole story really.
ORI
/the-plan/
The longer the bullshit lasts...the less it smells
It's sad that Europe is going to fail to liquidate and turn its economy into a non-capitalist zombie, just like Japan and more recently America.
These managerialists and central planners need to learn about creative destruction: without liquidation, markets and nations stagnate. Old junk doesn't clear and open the market for new businesses and ideas.
I blame MBA programs, and the concept of "governance".
http://azizonomics.com/2011/12/06/capitalism-explained-for-angela-merkel/
Agree. That's what I keep saying about politics playing a greater role in the proposed "solutions" going forward. Bottom line, their plan will result in contracting economies not just for a day but for decades. As that becomes less acceptable to a growing impoverished underclass they're going to need to add repression to the plan
Repression was factored in quite some time ago, have you not noticed, been busy playing with your plonker and lost track?
yes. don't tase me bro is due for an update to don't drone me bro:
http://www.salon.com/2011/12/06/nprs_domestic_drone_commercial/singleton/
But more specifically, what is the broader market seeing that ramps the ES. Nothing makes sense...anymore ( circa 2008). i dont need anybody to tell me yada, yada, just a personal reflection.
ORI,
I think their salaries have risen significantly since 2009 but really...it's not about the money
http://www.investmentpostcards.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/08/humor-gold...
Ahhhahaha! Classic and hilarious and tragi-comic. Thanks for that Palmer.
ORI
i like that the loot includes necklaces and candlesticks not just coins: obviously stolen in robbery beyond mere fraud, like the upgrade we've recently endured (not a bug, an app) from say countrywide financial to say mf global.
fuzzy outcome = bored (sheep-moon-blink) of the lies by the time said "can" gets kicked.....2 staged weeks... didnt that dow jonz do well last week during the 401k statement end-of-the-month rally... ..
With considerqation to the fact that ECB President Draghi was once vice chairman and managing director of Goldman Sachs International, does GS get information to which other banks are not privy or before public prsentation ?
If you're working for GS and want to keep working there then yes...you better know what the boss already knows anyways cuz the "have those confabs and sheet." anywho what seems "fuzzy" is this article. I'm tellin' ya--OB Wan's on the Death Star and he's just shut down the tractor-beam...whatever a tractor beam is. THE DEATH STAR IS VULNERABLE!
My Lord, we've analyzed their attack plan and there IS a threat. Shall I have your Golden Parachute standing by?
Doe's the Pope shit in the woods ? .....
does anyone have turbo timmys itinerary??????
by the way do you see the wedge/pennant in that GLD forming? From the august high......resolution to the situation soon,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
What's Paulson's 20? Is it time to dust off that pep talk on martial law again...?
we don't need no stinkin' martial law: http://www.salon.com/2011/12/03/the_we_are_at_war_mentality/singleton/
GS admits dry humping will not make a baby! wow
Well... If GS said it, there's a good chance someone's already pregnant.
They can contain the toxic waste! Like they did at Fukushima!
Oh.....Wait....
Radioactive cesium found in Japan baby milk
http://worldnews.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2011/12/06/9252051-radiactive-cesiu...
They can contain the toxic waste...
Speaking of containing toxic japanese issues, I found it amusing that Japan is offering government issued gold coins to those purchasing government bonds. As a show of support the PM displayed his commemorative coin after scooping up low interest gov't bonds. That's some serious mixing of metaphores. imo.
And where's ZH's take on Teneo? Please don't tell me TD's salary is paid for by Teneo's crack team of media handlers. From Teneo's website:
Teneo Strategy's core advisory services include:
Corporate and Financial Communications
Messaging to internal and external audiences (including investors, analysts, employees, and media); brand management
Special Situations Communications
Communications related to M&A transactions, IPOs, bankruptcies & restructurings, change management and other unique situations
Investor Relations
Program development and implementation, earnings preparation, financial calendar management and shareholder analysis
Crisis Management
Communications in times of crisis, planning/readiness, risk mapping and response strategies
Government Affairs
Advice on legislative and political developments, and government relations strategies
Corporate Strategy
Advice on strategy development and managing key initiatives/projects
ZH makes the connection with every other misfit organization, why the seeming hands off treatment with this Corzine affiliate?
Just wonderin'
And please, frn50k a month is just the retainer, subscription fee. Personally I'd like to see the real fee and services schedule, you know, the one they present when your need for their various "special" services actually occurs.
This is certainly not the kind of business the average person or company in the US would ever need.
Interesting how they offer to help navigate through the mess of regulatory mayhem they in previous lives are materially responsible for creating. They may as well call themselves extortions-r-us. imho.
change you can't refuse.
It's pretty obvious at this point that Central Banks are the lenders of last (only) resort, and Sovereigns are the borrowers of last (only) resort, and Sovereigns are running out of borrowing capacity. We're running out of Ponzi real quick folks.
Its the world's greatest rendition of 3-card monty.
They're all monty and no card.
Put simply, gold and crude oil (especially Brent) needs to drop substantially before ECB goes wahoo ?
Also, Fed will get a chance to do a parallel QE3 if oil/gold fall low enough ?
Chances of that happening ?
The chances of QE3 are 100%...actually they've never stopped printing. The only question is what those criminals at the Fed will call QE3, QE4...QEn until the whole frigging Ponzi scheme finally collapses.
I'm buying gold, silver, and more 3" 00Buckshot rounds :)
I hope you are right I'm betting all my paper crap on it, just one shot is all I hope for......too damned old to do it all over..
This guys are so full of shit.
There IS no way out. The Eurozone is bankrupt, broke, insolvent.
All this nonsense boils down to ever more creative(in their minds anyway) ways to create more debt and print more money.
CNBC and the sheeple might be impressed, but I'm not.
Neither am I, Hairball.
Any chance people get bored with this story and just forget about it, similar to the super committee which produced nothing and the markets didn't seem to care for the most part. If they just keep extending and pretending, people may actually just lose interest and start to believe it may never end. It's either default by printing or just straight up default. It's been that way for nearly two years now.
You'r right, but don't overlook the sneakyness of combined banksters and politicians, they can screw the whole ballgame in just fifteen minutes
Actually its the world that is broke.
There does not exist the wealth to pay off the debt, without a major repricing of real assets versus their financial counterparts.
This is before taking into account mass liquidation and its impact on price.
"The Eurozone is bankrupt, broke, insolvent"
well, if you are really willing to treat it as an aggregate, then the Debt to GDP of the EZ is at 85% and it's a net exporter...
but of course this would be spoiling the party... I might get the chance of making a lot of unpopular remarks in 2012 when the currency zones which have much more then 100% and are net importers have their troubles... not that it will make me happy, though...
Cue circus music in 3, 2, 1....
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1D5Sa2Yq-2g
This may be the vibe
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UtBysnK0CQM&feature=related
Not bad, but I think this'll be the EuroCircus theme:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BNWpZ-Y_KvU
Oh yeah...the Illuminati Anti-Christmas Carol...good call
You know that 8% pop in the Dow over the past week or so? Get ready to say bye bye to it over the course of one, perhaps 2, days if this summit flops on its face. And get ready for a new gold pop.
Most likely course of action coming out of this summit is that they schedule another summit, at which they plan to resolve to come up with a new plan for Europe's future prosperity. It's all a charade, and the markets are buying it hook, line and sinker.
Ha! Get real. No one in the world expects anything from the summit.
So it all boils down to PIIGS giving up governing their future to receive bailouts from Germany and company.
If PIIGS agree to this, it's like WW2 without guns and the Germans win.
So it all boils down to PIIGS giving up governing their future
By now it's clear: it was just the PIIGS as late as this summer, but now it's spreading fast all over Eastern Europe, the UK, Denmark, and right to the core of France and Germany as they struggle with the twin toxicities of systemically sensitive banks and sovereign debt. Germany nationalizing Commerzbank this week was a tell. There's plenty more toxic paper in the closet and under the carpet.
Nobody knows how it will shake out, but one thing is for sure: the numbers will never add up and politics will have to play a major part because the real economies are going to tank if they proceed as planned
Gold will never be this cheap again. These past few weeks have been a God-send to longterm PM holders. Crash the system...keep the central banks honest... buy hard currency.
...keep the central banks honest...
That implies that they were once honest...
Another plan to make a plan..... Why doesn't someone just tell Uncle Ben who to make the check out to.
Here we go again.
Goldman Sachs
The most despised, reviled, hated firm by Zero Hedge
Suddenly, whatever their "experts" have to say is now considered "important"
Gimme a break!!!
Suddenly? TD has been reposting GS statements for a long time now. I think the idea is that it's useful to pay attention to what your opponent is saying.
lmao.
Thanks RobotreTarder! Thanks, there I fixed the spelling. ;-)
We know the stability pact: Bernanke prints.
Thank you for watching Act I. Please enjoy the intermission music as we change the reels.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EHOBw6XwqRo
Although it might be a little bit lemmingry, I think I'll go get some Precious Metals, Tinned Goods And Small Calibre Weapons....*
*I really just wanted to try using 'lemmingry' in a sentence...
i think what you want is "lemmingy". lemmingry is a noun.
"Markets have advanced in recent days, seemingly in anticipation of significant progress from this week’s EU Summit. In this piece we set out our expectations for what will emerge from Friday’s Summit."
Really, that's why the markets advanced in recent days? I don't need to read further, the guy is full of shit...
I think much has to do with the Eurozone's problems being generally absent from mainstream news coverage and thus a broadly perceived assumption that at least for now their problems are being kept at bay; selling has slowed.
What do you make of this? And how will such disclosure affect the likely stealth bailouts that will continue and likely accelerate in my opinion:
Audit of the Federal Reserve Reveals $16 Trillion in Secret Bailouts"...
When you have conservative Republican stalwarts like Jim DeMint(R-SC) and Ron Paul(R-TX) as well as self identified Democratic socialists like Bernie Sanders all fighting against the Federal Reserve, you know that it is no longer an issue of Right versus Left. When you have every single member of the Republican Party in Congress and progressive Congressmen like Dennis Kucinich sponsoring a bill to audit the Federal Reserve, you realize that the Federal Reserve is an entity onto itself, which has no oversight and no accountability.
Americans should be swelled with anger and outrage at the abysmal state of affairs when an unelected group of bankers can create money out of thin air and give it out to megabanks and supercorporations like Halloween candy. If the Federal Reserve and the bankers who control it believe that they can continue to devalue the savings of Americans and continue to destroy the US economy, they will have to face the realization that their trillion dollar printing presses will eventually plunder the world economy.
The list of institutions that received the most money from the Federal Reserve can be found on page 131 of the GAO Audit and are as follows..
Citigroup: $2.5 trillion ($2,500,000,000,000)
Morgan Stanley: $2.04 trillion ($2,040,000,000,000)
Merrill Lynch: $1.949 trillion ($1,949,000,000,000)
Bank of America: $1.344 trillion ($1,344,000,000,000)
Barclays PLC (United Kingdom): $868 billion ($868,000,000,000)
Bear Sterns: $853 billion ($853,000,000,000)
Goldman Sachs: $814 billion ($814,000,000,000)
Royal Bank of Scotland (UK): $541 billion ($541,000,000,000)
JP Morgan Chase: $391 billion ($391,000,000,000)
Deutsche Bank (Germany): $354 billion ($354,000,000,000)
UBS (Switzerland): $287 billion ($287,000,000,000)
Credit Suisse (Switzerland): $262 billion ($262,000,000,000)
Lehman Brothers: $183 billion ($183,000,000,000)
Bank of Scotland (United Kingdom): $181 billion ($181,000,000,000)
BNP Paribas (France): $175 billion ($175,000,000,000) ..."
From the Senate Office of Bernie Sanders on the GAO report auditing the Fed
It is truly an unmitigated disaster and is blowing up in their faces right now.
how will such disclosure affect the likely stealth bailouts that will continue and likely accelerate
At some point they'll declare anyone opposed to the Fed "Enemy combatants". All proceedings will be sealed under the National Security umbrella. And we'll just get press releases monthly from the ministry of truth
All enemy combatants and terrorists will be shot dead.
"Americans should be swelled with anger and outrage at the abysmal state of affairs when an unelected group of bankers can create money out of thin air and give it out to megabanks and supercorporations like Halloween candy."
The sheeple should be outraged, but first
a) They would have to actually understand how an economy works... of course they don't because most are:
b) Far more interested in who's fucking who in Hollywood and what Oprah's new house looks like, etc. etc.
c) Also because no one on the planet knows exactly "how an economy works."
I tend to disagree. The free market knows how an economy works. Its just too bad the free market was taken out back and shot in 2008.
PS - How's Grettel?
Wrong, 1913. It's nice to see generational theft works!
There is no question about it Duff, that private banking entity that disguises itself as a government agency but is not, aka the Federal Reserve, is dab smack in the middle of perpetrating the largest theft in world history. The larest transfer of wealth from the bottom to the top - picking the pockets, the lifeblood, the very soul of a nation and a people.
It is the largest criminal organization that ever existed.
And shutting it down is the most important issue of our age.
Sadly though, 99.7% of the people don't even have a clue what it is.
RE: Bernie Sanders.... Can I get a ZH poll... I'd like to know....
GREEN Arrow if you are closer to a BernieS. 'Democratic Socialist'
They believe that both the economy and society should be run democratically—to meet public needs, not to make profits for a few, where ordinary Americans can participate in the many decisions that affect our lives.
Or a RED Arrow if you are closer to a RonP. Libertarian I'd give a definition of what that was, but I really don't know what the definition is of a pro-life Libertarian is.That $16 trillion figure stunned me at first. $16 trillion?! How could that be? I then learned the figure was cumulative. A recent Bloomberg piece discusses it:
"The $16 trillion number cited by the Fed may refer to a Government Accountability Office report of July 21, 2011, that used a different methodology. Bloomberg built its database to show amounts outstanding, while the GAO tallied cumulative loans. For example, if a bank borrowed $1 billion overnight for 100 nights, Bloomberg would say the bank had a $1 billion balance at the Fed for 100 days; the GAO would say the bank borrowed $100 billion. The former is a more useful economic measurement."
I'm just clarifying, not defending the fork-toothed Fed scumbags.
What?! You mean Friday's EU Summit might not fix the euro?
Where is LookingWithAmazement? Someone please say it ain't so!
Uh Ooohhh,
The next gun show in So Cal is Dec. 17-18th. Get your ammo while you can....I already assume that you are smart enough to have bought gold and silver!!
Not jerry's Bitch
They're just pissed markets are topped for 2011
If Goldman is lowering expectations for Friday then we are going to have a huge rally right?
Or it could be that their trading desks made the wrong trades and they want to get back on the bandwagon...
How's the business? Demand still strong?
But where does it all end.
I'm guessing deflation and contraction.
http://fucklloydblankfein.blogspot.com
I keep hearing this deflation theory. I think the nature of the CDS's forbids deflation thus triggering them into creating money that does not exist..................yet ! (inflation)
QE to infinity so that the CDS's won't be triggered.
After reading this talk from GS, for the first time ever I'm feeling a bit optimistic about the EU prospects for the future.
JUST RELAX.
There is nowhere to go, there is nothing to do. You knew this was coming, and there was no way to plan for it.
You are in a crash position. Stay there.
We are going to print. Everyone is. Just expect that shit. It is the only way to keep the game going. There is no other solution. It was this or annihilation. You always choose bad over death. It is a false choice.
Be calm. Tomorrow the Earth will still yield food. There will still be music. People will still dance. There is time yet. Be calm.
Follow the Golden Rule. Not the bullion rule, the Do-Unto-Others Rule.
This is only a correction, largely by people that got too greedy and will lose money they did not have in the first place. It is all a game. The most important thing is that you help those next to you. Be calm.
This is a paper emergency.
relax.
But make sure to have a little of the following:
Food in the larder.
Clean drinking water.
Guns and bullets.
Gold and Silver.
More bullets.
Good friends and local connections.
More bullets...even more if you can fit them under the couch.
Whiskey and cigarettes.
Medical supplies.
Maybe a bow and some arrows.
AS MANY BULLETS AS YOU CAN BUY. Forget everything else at this point.
Ok, maybe a little tongue in cheek but I have been slowly stocking up on supplies except for the bullets, the guns, the whiskey, the cigarettes, and the medical supplies. Though I do think about it too frequently. Maybe I will go to a doctor and get a pill to help keep my nerves calm.
I find stacking silver coins to be relaxing
Stack Trace: "I have been slowly stocking up on supplies except for the bullets, the guns, the whiskey, the cigarettes, and the medical supplies"
Hope your kidding about the 'except' part.
In the off chance you are NOT, where do you live again?? :)
StarkFist: breathing through the oxygen mask first. Calm as a Hindu cow :)
" A Canadian broadcasting Corporation documentary, Cruel Camera, found that the lemmings used for White Wilderness were flown from Hudson Bay to Calgary, Alberta, Canada, where they did not jump off the cliff, but were in fact launched off the cliff using a turntable."
That's actually a much more accurate representation of what's happening here and now.
When it looks like inflation's sunk your two cents to the dirt
It just means you don't have buy into anything
The CBC has a storied history of snowy clime rodent fraud.
@ the 3:00 mark: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jzvoj6a2TQo
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G17Dcl8lIkM
I received this email from a friend in Hawaii. This was written before 1947. My friends grandfather was flying a small plane for recreational enjoyment on Dec 7, 1941, flying over Honolulu as the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor (and the rest of Oahu) began.
Very interesting slice of life here. 3 pages. What is very interesting also is the "denial". They landed their plane during the attack, got out, moved 30 planes to separate them in case of a further attack, and then drove to the police to inform them of the attack, and the police basically laughed at them, in denial that we could have been attacked, especially by the Japanese.
Read it. Drop a comment.
By the way, in case you didn't know, this is the anniversary of the attack on Pearl Harbor.
http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/2011/12/pearl-harbor-attack.html
man, they're callin them japs in that piece...
times are very different now.
Ya now we call them "Master"
Most of the time, I read stories like this and think, "Ho Hum. The foxis in charge of the hen house". In the case of Goldman Sachs, it would be more accurate to say that the pimps are running the brothel. Yet, as long as people insist on playing the Federal Reserve debt game, it's their sporting house, their rules, their games of chance, poker chips and playing cards. This is how people end up in the gutter, tapped out and broke.
http://georgesblogforum.wordpress.com/2011/11/02/the-daily-climb-2/
So what are the odds that we'll get those 15 or so sovereign debt downgrades promised by S&P?
The whole global macro trade scam run by the TBTF is illuminated by this, particularly Tylers lead in.
Something doesn't seem quite right.
Giving up hopium after only two days ... and the word coming from GS...
and with all their shills in place..
This situation seems ripe for a ringer.
if you down grade every thing
nothing really changes...
There is only one way to read anything from the Squid. Take a photographic negative of the article, then hold the negative up to a bright light, upside down and backwards, then read between the lines while checking for embeded subliminal code. Maybe you will come out unscathed.
First posting so don't trash me too bad. I've learned a lot from everyone in here and there are things that will only make sense to those in the bizz of trading and so forth, so that i get. however, I have spent the better part of 7 yrs learning about what happened in 2008 and what led up to that. Yes it was toxic assets and yes the gov't gave loans to those who never should have bought a home, and in a free market there would be no such thing as a freddie or fannie or a too TBTF because the would have done exactly that...FAIL. But I also have learned very much about the involvement of gov't and most things are purposeful and have every intention of causing these crisis in order to have more gov't control. I just have one question for Tyler and all of you who post here. Have any of you every considered that the take down of lehman bros as well as bear stearns was intentional in order to collapse the system so as to reboot it to something that does not resemble freedom or capitalism as we all knew it? George Soros has said that the problem with the world is the USA because the american people have a vote in congress. what better way to void that vote than with constant financial emergencies that bypass the voters; e.g. 7.7 trillion from the Fed. Lehman was the financial backstop for the economy with commercial paper and money markets that froze up in Sept 2008. Soros increase his shares of Lehman in Aug 08 from 10k shares to 9.5 million as reported by bloomberg. The Joint Economic Committee for the financial meltdown in sept 08 on page 9 talk about breaking the buck on redemptions from the primary dealer who had to suspend redemptions for one week. That week was said to be ending Sept 17. Go back seven days and include the 17th and suprise...Sept 11. I believe we have been forced on this road to print until the collapse of the dollar in order to remake our political and economic system by a self proclaimed "Political Phylanthropist" who also helped start the OWS via the Tides Foundation. By the way..Bear Stearns held a large short position in silver that was acquired by the morgue. Ever since they have been doing whatever it takes despite a president that does everything he can to prevent any american jobs or growth. Sorry for being long but I'd love to read peoples input. Soros also has a group called the Open Society that is about a one world gov't, no towns or cities or countries. Love to hear from you Tyler. Slide
Blaming everthing on the big bad Soros, and taking "the better part of 7 yrs learning about what happened in 2008" sounds like you have already mastered the course in glenn beck mathmatics.
Actually you should try reading his books. notice he has always supported the way of printing money and going the IMF route or the creation of the EFSF. I didn't hear about Beck until 2009. doesn't soros have a say in the fed lending? Hedgefunds were not regulated during this time and especially derivatives. just slight manipulation or shorting causeing even a 4-5% drawndown can collapse a overleveraged bank. His theory of reflexivity and the feedback loops that it creates explains how people act on imperfect information with standard ways at looking at things. He tells you how people can be manipulated into these strategies and even he admits that if he tells to much infor about his philanthropy he might incriminate himself. He also admits that the financial crisis was his lifes work. Is that you George, Mr dark pools.
An unorganized gang of lustfully greedy assholes like Soros doesn't necessitate a conspiracy.
Failure has always been the societal balm for this kind of human detritus, however, failure has been obsolesced (except for the middle class).
Soros did break the british pound and tried to mess with asia. He also said that Derivatives are a conveinient way to short, especially with naked short selling and the tri repo markets that were all highly over leveraged.
Watching the Europe open I just had this thought as a play from Apocalypse now when Kilgore speaks about his connection between napalm and victory:
I love the smell of PRINTING in the morning. You know, one time we had EUROS PRINTED, for 12 hours. When it was all over, I walked up. We didn't find one of 'em, not one stinkin' PIIGS SOVEREIGN BOND. The smell, you know that CRISP SWAP-LINE NEW DOLLAR smell, the whole hill. Smelled like LIQUIDITY. Someday this CRISIS is gonna end...
"Said otherwise - yet another failure. Which confirms that the Christmas rally over the past week has been nothing but. And all such "career risk" mitigation exercises in lemmingry, end in the same way: with someone defecting first."
how can you top this!
I guess we will all find out soon enough how this turns out.
AJ just posted some breaking news a bit ago which those of us who are not asleep and not in the normalcy bias camp are already aware these things were in place.
BREAKING NEWS: GOV. ACTIVATING "FEMA CAMPS" ACROSS U.S http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K4aQJqzIe8ohttp://static.infowars.com/2011/12/i/general/kbr-doc.pdf
Spaulding you'll get nothing and like it.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0f6l1QljpMo&feature=related
GS wants ONE thing : ECB printing to Infinity. Sarkozy wants it too. Merkel doesn't. That sums up the current dilemma.
The US cabal justs wants ongoing can kicking, in a financial world they have created and to which Euro banks, sucked in since 10 years, are surrogate. Now the EUro governments are surrogate too due to sovereign risk; Merkel being the only one who has the "cojones" to resist. Will the global debt tsunami pull her into the vortex? I think she prefers the system go to BREAK rather than give in, as the Germans do have a Rhineland capitalistic model different to Anglosaxon prevalent one, which is iconised by none other than GS... Play on GS, you are megaphone for US cabal! That's what they sing today as always...One unknown is HOW deep is the banking shithole in Rhineland if push goes to shove and systemic breakdown...
All Merkel is trying to do is swim against the tide in the short term, to create a EUro momentum, that pulls Euro-economies OUT of Anglosaxon financial system. By deep austerity and debt deflation in real terms, not through fiat debasement as proposed by GS cabal; who don't want private sectors assets to burn, the 25 T riches of the happy few parked in tax havens. Of course, the German banks, Euro banks and Euro-oligarchs are part of this off shore system too. Capitalism is Janus, two faced God. SO the German strategy of decoupling Euro economies from anglosaxon model comes TOO LATE and is TOO Ineffective by the looks of it. It does not spell well; it could lead to financial systemic collapse, anyway. By a analagous process it is obvious that the US economy cannot Decouple from the Euro debt tinder box. The whole system is boxed in into an inextricable dish of cold Bunga-bunga party spaghetti.
If in this insane world the US cabal has a plan, it is this, as they own the reserve currency and can print to infinity : HYperinflation to write off debt. Let the first world 99% die as salaries and pensions will NOT be inflation indexed. So we all pay more for hard goods imported from Oil oligarchies; new kings of the world, cheap labour oligarchies; new members of NWO; while the first world whithers away as the sucker middle class, overfed and underproductive according to the new mantra, which is radically different to the old mantra, à la Chris Martenson explanation.
We are now in the energy/ecology/economy crunch and the first world has no other solution than hyperinflate fiat, reduce debt, and shrink the first world economies back to being lean and mean and hungry. Let the current generations be sacrificed as lambs on the altar of global reset. Sic gloria transit. The Oligarchy always wins, they have first access to Titanic life boats as it sinks.
http://maxkeiser.com/2011/12/07/austerity-hit-schoolchildren-in-spanish-catalonia-are-being-told-to-restrict-their-use-of-toilets/
http://maxkeiser.com/2011/12/07/jp-morgan-prevent-a-comex-default-by-stealing-peoples-money-from-mf-global-just-before-they-are-due-to-take-physical-delivery-of-gold-and-silver/
Just shut down Wall Street for a year. Guards on top of the building, razor wire, padlock the doors.
Dear Goldman,
Shut the fuck up. You are full of nothing but lies and deceit.
Without unconditional legal favoritism from politicians and the rich you would be dead and buried.
You are a cancer on decent society, and deserve nothing but bankruptcy and prosecution for crimes against the people of the united states.
You have lost all confidence of even your own rigged fraud "markets," and deserve no less than complete destruction.
Go fuck yourselves and the mafia entrenched in your crooked businesses.
Ripped off taxpayer.
totally agree. question is what we do about it. I truly think they are shitting themselves for a credible way out of this.......not to be alamist or defeatist, we could stop applying conventional wisdom-history-economics to possible scenarios, and just think like the Fed. What will they do, however stupid, to maintain or expand their reach and control? They may have distored the entire banking thing beyond repair in that what was an 'emergency bailout' has not become accepted routine policy. The miracle is all the time they bought and continue to squander because there is no precedent for this. We need a discussion on some real outcomes and things we can do------------everyone is pissed about the latest GS research report bla bla bla, what the fuck else is new. What can we do about it?
Making broad assumptions, you sound young so the chances of you having to deal with this fucking mafia are quite good.
Modern fiat finance is a cancer, so like any cancer or parasite one has to evaluate what tools are available. Also, like any cancer or parasite the first thing that happens is the host is weakened to allow the parasite to flourish.
In the United States the traditional tools for dealing with cancers and parasites are the rule of law and democracy itself.
It should be patently obvious that BOTH of these tools have been systematically incapacitated, undermined and eliminated by the "money masters." Therefore, if you are expecting some historic ephiphany to emerge from what WAS the strengths of the US you will not find a cure - and will quickly realize that everyone else with their "hope and change" are absolutely insane and ineffective with their marches and protests. Money masters get their traction from one thing alone -- synthetic fear. Read this paragraph again.
So, the typical remaining tools available for dealing with cancers and parasites are isolation followed by extermination.
All [legitimate] markets are physical -- rememeber that. Hope and change masturbation to move markets is just that. If you want to fight, do it -- hope never wins.
The last time I personally had anything to do with a Goldshlepps employee was in 2002(?) and involved mopping the bar with his arrogant face in Seattle. He ended up with late-night mandibular reconstruction and four new teeth to match his lies and tuxedo. Needless, the wedding party of which he was a groomsman the next day has not sent a Christmas card since. As you can tell I could care less about that fraud-fuck's well being and neither should you.
So, being that all legitimate markets are physical and the sooner physical [personal] "risk" comes into play the sooner the markets are true.
I'm not advocating violence, but it is the one tool used to fight fear with fear when the rule of law is divided, truth is held hostage for those without the "chosen-means", and elections are not about the best candidate but who has the most campaign contributions or where the votes are counted. Florida in 2000 was icing on the cake. W Bush might as well killed JFK, because the same mafia was behind both presidencies (or lack of).
That fuck in Seattle will remember my trade for the rest of his life, and there is plenty more where that came from. He may or may not work for the mafia squid anymore, but he has to live with a bridgework bonus instead. I hope his career choice rots his entire body and poisons his life early - its the profession that deserves it. His corporation left him exposed and I gave him a token of things yet to come.
For the non-violent, do not participate, barter (avoid taxation), and do not use credit at all. Do not put your money into the fraud-entrenched-system, do not use electronic money (non-physical = fraud), and persuade EVERYONE you know to do the same. If you have children or aging parents, remove them from the system of lies, too. Do not befriend anyone who creates "money" or leverage for a dirty living -- push them out of your community and shun their families and businesses.
Hope and change and unicorn tears for the masses, ill take physical with no regret -- whether it's buying gold peacefully or dishing punishment for some college-fuck that thought he had a big dick followed by a household name. I recommend you do the same - get physical, violence optional.
Anyone else reading this if you work for ANY bank of fraud I hope we meet for some free counseling.
agree again, try to have as little to do with the bank as possible. Have been trying to get the message across to family for years to follow suit.....until a recent encounter my Mothe just had at a well known bank in Florida. She finally sees my point but God help that poor bastard that tried to take advantage of her. 25 yrs in the business and I used to joke with them that if they want anything done to go down there with a bat.......Never minded they thought I was nuts until Madoff, near banking collapse, massive fraud and now MF Global.
MF Global is in bed with Uncle Sam (or the Fraud Fed working on Sam's lawless behalf) -- you heard it here, first.
Ask yourself, why would ANYONE go all in if they didn't know with abosolute certainty what the outcome of a particular event would be? They did.
MF Global placed a HUGE insider trade with insider information on Europe and got exposed prematurely.
You haven't heard it yet, but MF Global is dripping with government collusion. Justice abortions coming up shortly, too.
Heads they win tails you lose, citizen -- your bonus for obeying their "law" is to stay poor.
All this European construction, with all its complexity, appears to be made up as it goes, with poor planning and with new rules to control side effects of the previous ones.
Expecting multi-national administrations, headed by unelected nobodies, to control such increasingly complex sets of rules, and to control each other, in real time, without falling into selective enforcement (as is already the case), propaganda (feel-good announcements & scapegoating), and increasing totalitarianism, probably remains hubristic.
The solution, as in much around us now, probably resides in more simplicity, not more complexity.
we like it - the best way to obstruct a government is to have another government obstructing it
the US started this way, 75% States Governments, 25% Federal Government
then you made the Senators elected instead of appointed by the State's Legislatures
since then your setup is getting simpler and simpler - less totalitarian? You tell me
very well said, mostly your emphasis on 'control'. Politics are based on nothing more.