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Goldman Cuts Its NFP Forecast From 50K To 25K

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Straight from the horse's mouth, in this case Goldman, which agrees with Zero Hedge that the ISM was weaker than perceived below the surface, and also provides an NFP goose egg for tomorrow: "ISM stronger than expected in August, although details of the report are softer than the headline suggests...We are lowering our forecast for tomorrow's nonfarm payroll report to +25k, from +50k previously. The main reason is the accumulation of evidence of weak hiring in late July and August: a sharp deterioration in perceptions of job availability in the latest Conference Board survey, a drop in today's ISM manufacturing employment index, another drop in job advertising, and a soft ADP report. Layoffs seem to have remained low, given steady jobless claims in the 410,000 range, although even here the recent pickup in layoff announcements is a concern." As everyone knows all too well, the difference of 25K people when you are dealing with a sample  of over 100 million has just one name: policy.

Full report:

SM Better Than Expected; Cutting our Payroll Forecast

BOTTOM LINE: ISM stronger than expected in August, although details of the report are softer than the headline suggests. Construction spending report also solid after revisions. However, we are cutting our forecast for nonfarm payroll employment to +25k from +50k due to signs of weak hiring in late July and August.

US-MAP:
ISM 5 (5, +1)
Construction spending 0 (1, 0) with 4 point upward adjustment due to positive revisions

KEY NUMBERS:
ISM index 50.6 in August vs. GS 48.5, median forecast 48.5.
Construction spending -1.3% (mom) in July vs. GS +0.5%, median forecast +0.2%.

MAIN POINTS:
1. The manufacturing ISM declined less than expected to 50.6 in August, down only 0.3 point (versus 2.4 points expected) from July. The details of the report, however, were softer than the headline suggests: while new orders held up (49.6 after 49.2 in July), the production and employment indexes both declined (by 3.7 points to 48.6 and by 1.7 point to 51.8, respectively). Inventories rose (by 3 points to 52.3), pushing the new orders-inventory gap down to -2.7. The prices paid index declined 3.5 points to 55.5.

2. Construction expenditures fell by 1.3% (month-over-month), in contrast to consensus expectations for a small increase. However, the weaker than expected growth rate in July was more than offset by an upward revision to earlier months. The level of total construction expenditures was revised up by 3.6% for July-a large change compared to typical month-to-month variation in this series. We therefore interpret the report as a modest positive. Among the components, the release showed more strength in residential building (once revisions are taken into account), but some weakness in private nonresidential construction and state and local government building.

3. We are lowering our forecast for tomorrow's nonfarm payroll report to +25k, from +50k previously. The main reason is the accumulation of evidence of weak hiring in late July and August: a sharp deterioration in perceptions of job availability in the latest Conference Board survey, a drop in today's ISM manufacturing employment index, another drop in job advertising, and a soft ADP report. Layoffs seem to have remained low, given steady jobless claims in the 410,000 range, although even here the recent pickup in layoff announcements is a concern.

 

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Thu, 09/01/2011 - 10:59 | 1622672 ??
??'s picture

Straight from the horse's mouth

try ass, in this case Goldman

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 11:01 | 1622680 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

LOL, watch NFP come in +200,000 tomorrow.

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 11:08 | 1622703 kito
kito's picture

yep, if goldman is now calling for 25,000, im willing to bet its closer to 100,000.

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 11:15 | 1622725 Ancona
Ancona's picture

Even with a miss tomorrow, the algos will push the market higher for us.

Bullish! <sarc>

 

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 11:27 | 1622765 bankrupt JPM bu...
bankrupt JPM buy silver's picture

I'm assuming a -30 phily fed will be much worse that 50 NFP.  This might catch a lot of motherfuckers offside tomorrow.

 

www.silvergoldsilver.blogspot.com

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 13:09 | 1623027 rocker
rocker's picture

The Set Up is in.   Anything over 25 will be "Better than Expected".

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 11:28 | 1622768 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Yep, and push any reason for QE3 right out the back window.

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 11:16 | 1622730 HelluvaEngineer
HelluvaEngineer's picture

...and it would be even funnier if it were higher than that and they decide to shank the market anyway.

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 11:28 | 1622767 vote_libertaria...
vote_libertarian_party's picture

It will be a negative number.  Maybe even 6 figures.

 

(Obama needs a bad number this month because he is asking for money on Thursday)

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 21:27 | 1624557 Needsomebling
Needsomebling's picture

Underpromise Overdeliver...I hear Bama and Chairsatan making an annopuncement next Thursday. Guess its time for the weekly dose of Hopium the market needs lol

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 12:10 | 1622866 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

hey ??!  i looked you up, cause i was ?? 'boutcha and tyler's got this (paste):  

Member for
1 year 1 hour
gotta love that!  you're certainly special, and today is your day!
peace, love, and i'm wondering why the minutes and seconds aren't there, too, at this point! 
Thu, 09/01/2011 - 11:00 | 1622677 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

It's just a economic Wipe Out. Nothing to pay any attention to.

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 11:02 | 1622684 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

but, but...with a seasonal adjustment and little birth/death bullshit, who knows?  freaky friday, BiCheZ!!!

eathquakes!  hurricanes!  man-made environmental disasters! 

runch?

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 11:05 | 1622690 lizzy36
lizzy36's picture

Others all over the map:

 

BAML = +35k

JPM = = +70k

BarCap = +100K

Nomura = -5K

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 11:23 | 1622752 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

LOL, all the pros put together have the estimate squarely pegged at + or - about 100K, give or take.

Clownshow.

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 11:36 | 1622776 DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

clearly a science, clearly a discipline with integrity

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 11:41 | 1622805 carbonmutant
carbonmutant's picture

Looks pretty non-linear to me...

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 11:07 | 1622699 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

I hate when Goldman agrees with me. It makes me seriously question myself.

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 11:12 | 1622719 Instant Wealth
Instant Wealth's picture

Whenever you find yourself on the side of the majority, it is time to pause and reflect.

-Mark Twain-

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 11:36 | 1622790 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

When everyone has QE3 banked without question, its time to reflect and reconsider that shit.

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 11:33 | 1622781 DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

I felt the same way about my stepfather

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 11:11 | 1622716 John Law Lives
John Law Lives's picture

As per this chart, the DJIA moved from 11579.44 at 9:58AM to 11705.94 at 10:04AM.  That is a 126+ point move in 6 minutes on economic data that really wasn't very good.

Wow.  What an efficient market we have.  Move along.  Nothing to see here...

 

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EDJI+Interactive#symbol=^dji;range=1d;compare=;indicator=volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=;

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 11:19 | 1622740 HelluvaEngineer
HelluvaEngineer's picture

I show a 13 pt move on the ES in a one minute bar.

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 11:33 | 1622782 John Law Lives
John Law Lives's picture

Attack of the algos...  Battle bots run the markets.

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 15:21 | 1623408 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

Rockem' Sockem.

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 11:15 | 1622728 Cdad
Cdad's picture

Are you enjoying your Summer of Recovery yet...brought to you by criminal sydnciate Wall Street bankers?

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 11:18 | 1622736 Seasmoke
Seasmoke's picture

only 20 more days left and then the FALL really begins

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 11:39 | 1622801 DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

they've certainly dropped a helluva lot of leaves already

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 12:06 | 1622853 pods
pods's picture

And then about 6 months till it begins with the FN FAL.

pods

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 14:15 | 1623208 RSloane
RSloane's picture

I didn't get a party hat!

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 11:18 | 1622737 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

How did they expect vibrant growth with perpetual $110 oil?

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 11:19 | 1622741 Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

lowering expectations so you can call a beat the very next day. Would anyone be surprised.

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 11:24 | 1622758 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Go ahead and beat, further pushing any reason for 'QE3' rubbish out the window.

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 11:21 | 1622746 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

it's a man baby

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 11:21 | 1622747 SeverinSlade
SeverinSlade's picture

What a world we live in.  A negative/poor NFP number could potentially send markets soaring on further Hopium of QE3.  A very strong NFP could send markets tanking on fears that QE3 won't come.

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 11:26 | 1622761 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Bubbles Bernank has to very carefully keep that QE3 carrot on a stick directly out in front as he tightrope walks across the Grand canyon.

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 11:24 | 1622756 Cdad
Cdad's picture

And what does the BlowHorn [CNBC] choose to deep dive on this morning, after 12 hours of global recession truth telling?  Retail sales, malls, new fashion trends, assless jeans.  This...and the continuing saga of the Mets buyout offer.  Good grief.

Dear FCC,  

Considering the utter failure of the network known as the BlowHorn to actually inform people on finacial matters world wide, I respectfully ask you to withdraw their broadcasting license.  

Thank you.

P.S.

Helloooooooooooo COMCAST.  Is there anyone home?

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 12:09 | 1622865 SokPOTUS
SokPOTUS's picture

As long as they keep letting MCC rock side to side in that swivel chair; who the hell cares about the audio feed?

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 11:27 | 1622763 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Goldman is lowering so that the print can beat 'expectations.'

Goldman should have said that they expected a -770k print, so there could be a big rally on better than expected numbers.

p.s. - Given ADPs horrid track record, I wouldn't be surprised by a negative print, especially since any meaningful gains would have required initial claims to have fallen to around 370k or less for quite a bit of time, and we've seen 400k+ prints all year. Tomorrow's unemployment numbers could be the beginning of the renewed down trend in employment, which would meld nicely with Obama's bullshit speech next week.

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 11:33 | 1622783 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

It will come out 'Goldilocks' I think, we havent seen any wild deviations from expectations for a long time. They cant wildly beat expectations yet, then their cries for QE would fall flat...that is unless theyre ready to pull the rug out now then all bets are off.

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 12:01 | 1622845 alien-IQ
alien-IQ's picture

plus it's a holiday weekend coming. can't have frowny faces during happy holidays.

"To keep information from the public is the function of the corporate media."
Gore Vidal

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 11:30 | 1622773 alien-IQ
alien-IQ's picture

Now everyone will scramble to lower forecast, ultimately ending up with a consensus of -250k and when it comes in at -200k, the market will rally in celebration that the NFP "beat forecasts".

Ponzi on Wayne?
Ponzi on Garth.

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 11:34 | 1622787 Cone of Uncertainty
Cone of Uncertainty's picture

Birth Death Ratio bitches!!!

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 11:37 | 1622794 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Well so much for the Shit&Pee being up against strong resistance earlier this morning, algobots do not recognize trend lines. 

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 11:37 | 1622795 digalert
digalert's picture

Boy, are we ever hurting!

We need a TOTUS speech now!

 

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 11:40 | 1622802 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

WOW and from +100 to -20 again on the DUH in 5 minutes....yea 'Robert Paulson' do you want to come back and tell me Im an idiot this morning for saying there are no fundamentals or technicals at all in this market? Explain that technical move, I'm waiting.

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 11:43 | 1622809 carbonmutant
carbonmutant's picture

It's cool. Our community organizer has a plan. On Thursday we get to find out who he's gonna blame next...

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 11:44 | 1622812 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Its the Underpants Gnomes fault.

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 11:49 | 1622824 Cdad
Cdad's picture

If anyone needs further proof of just how stupid our criminal syndicate Wall Street clan really is, there is actually a sizable contingency of these mentally challenged clowns who are positioning for a burst of "recovery" to come from this next speech by President Zero.

What...would this be about the 300th speech this guy has given?   

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 11:51 | 1622827 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

I'm guessing the puppet in chief wont be mentioning his pet solar panel green company which just went belly up yesterday.

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 11:47 | 1622818 Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

Is it just me or is the market being propped up today?

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 11:48 | 1622821 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Just today?

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 12:06 | 1622855 Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

When are they going to 'put in the slot' and just bid the shit out of it higher?  Right now it just the constant yank and crank to keep it green.

My guess is roundabout 2:30 pm.

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 11:47 | 1622819 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Did someone trip over an algo churning robots power cord or what?

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 11:48 | 1622822 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Obama is coming out next week to announce that he plans on saving and/or creating millions of shovel ready jobs, based on a stimulus plan formulated by Paul Krugman, George Lucas, Quentin Tarantino & Gary Busey.

 

http://cdn.inquisitr.com/wp-content/2011/04/Gary-Busey-Closeup.jpg

 

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 11:58 | 1622837 drivenZ
drivenZ's picture

so what your saying is NFP will be about 30k tommorow? here i thought 30K was going to miss expectations but now it seems like it'll beat? whewwwwww, what a relief = continue ramp

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 12:07 | 1622840 FoieGras
FoieGras's picture

Not sure why Goldman keeps being quoted so often. They have been DEAD wrong about everything for about the entire last 12 months.

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 12:07 | 1622857 shazbotz
shazbotz's picture

"a sharp deterioration in perceptions of job availability"

 

hahaha, its so funny how they try to twist things...

they want people to believe that there is a decline in belief of job availablity.

Way to cover up the fact that there are no jobs!

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 12:15 | 1622885 catladdy
catladdy's picture

Released after UST's sold off sharply following ISM report. Bonds found support after dropping 1'18 from their highs & closed the 11am hour virtually unchanged. We're up sharply from the lows after the shorts were eviscerated. Fear not shorts, your day cometh!

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 12:23 | 1622907 Moneyswirth
Moneyswirth's picture

Make of it what you will, I think the Nomura guys are calling for a negative NFP print. And now Goldman's negative assesment, yeesh.

We very well could see a negative print tomorrow but expect the markets to rally regardless.  Pre-Labor Day Friday and all the rest.  

Until the reckoning comes.  

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 12:26 | 1622913 Stumpy
Stumpy's picture

Just check Gluu Mobile. Now that's a fucking meltup.

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 12:27 | 1622917 Albertarocks
Albertarocks's picture

I suspect Goldman is just lowering their expectations as the 'enabler'.  Enabling the report then to "exceed expectations" thereby justifying another fairy tale surge to yet end another week in the Wall Street Twilight Zone.

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 12:29 | 1622921 Moneyswirth
Moneyswirth's picture

President Obama will be naming this person to head his economic brain trust as part of his "jobs plan", in line with his ideological belief system.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OUj-m6Gq_2Y&feature=player_embedded

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 12:52 | 1622969 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

Where's my -700k jobs in August?

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 13:01 | 1622997 nowhereman
nowhereman's picture

In case you missed this ......

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/09/01/us-goldman-robosigning-idUSTRE...

Honest, we won't do it again, we promise!

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 13:24 | 1623068 Shock and Aweful
Shock and Aweful's picture

I am convinced that these fucking criminals...like JPM, GS, yada, yada, yada...all of them....do this shit - "downward revisions to NFP, ISM, GDP, etc, etc, etc...so that when the number is released....it is not as bad as the "experts" thought...and therefore the "markets" have a reason to "rally".

These fucking parasites already know what this number is....is there anyone out there who thinks otherwise?   And since this number is probably so fucking terrible that the market would shit all over itself tomorrow....Goldman had to come out and lower the public's expectations a bit...so, if the number comes in at 40 thousand only....and they just "lowered" their estimate to 25K....then we just got a "beat" of 15 thousand....and the fucking HFT melt-up can continue unabated until the Fed dumps another round of 1's and 0's into Golman's account....

The shit is so plainly obvious that it is almost insulting to anyone who is paying attention...  Am I wrong? 

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 14:39 | 1623265 MoneyWise
MoneyWise's picture

Goldman just release their "Doom and gloom" report to the
private clients according to CNBC.. Which definitely
a signal that bottom is in place already..
Hurray and Hallelujah for ZH-rs, Market is finally down
today.. Happiness and tears are running from the eyes of
ZH - community cheerleaders.. Finally their Brothers, Mothers, Fathers and Sisters 401k and Pension plans are
down today... What a f*cking joy, that feeling is
for most ZH - creeps.
Enjoy while it lasts, a##holes!!!

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 15:53 | 1623494 Peter_Griffin
Peter_Griffin's picture

Will do, thanks moneywise.

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 21:10 | 1623625 crazyjsmith
crazyjsmith's picture

Yep, it's those darn "Messengers" that caused this whole mess.  What logic!!  Let's go ahead and put a gag order on anything that smells of Truth, so we won't let those pesky whistleblowers get in the way of our fun.  And then we could all go back to our regularly scheduled programing. 

Does that sound asinine to you?  It should.  You really put the ASS in Asinine.  How about looking past that thirty second attention span of yours, and try to identify two things:

1. The reality of our situation

2. Who is really at fault (first clue, it is NOT those that are looking for the truth)

Or just bury that little damaged head of yours

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 15:55 | 1623504 Praetorian Guard
Praetorian Guard's picture

The bottom is in??? Hahahahahahahahahahahaha - yea, my ass.

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shacai's picture

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