Goldman Cuts Its NFP Forecast From 50K To 25K

Tyler Durden's picture

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??'s picture

Straight from the horse's mouth

try ass, in this case Goldman

slaughterer's picture

LOL, watch NFP come in +200,000 tomorrow.

kito's picture

yep, if goldman is now calling for 25,000, im willing to bet its closer to 100,000.

Ancona's picture

Even with a miss tomorrow, the algos will push the market higher for us.

Bullish! <sarc>


bankrupt JPM buy silver's picture

I'm assuming a -30 phily fed will be much worse that 50 NFP.  This might catch a lot of motherfuckers offside tomorrow.

rocker's picture

The Set Up is in.   Anything over 25 will be "Better than Expected".

SheepDog-One's picture

Yep, and push any reason for QE3 right out the back window.

HelluvaEngineer's picture

...and it would be even funnier if it were higher than that and they decide to shank the market anyway.

vote_libertarian_party's picture

It will be a negative number.  Maybe even 6 figures.


(Obama needs a bad number this month because he is asking for money on Thursday)

Needsomebling's picture

Underpromise Overdeliver...I hear Bama and Chairsatan making an annopuncement next Thursday. Guess its time for the weekly dose of Hopium the market needs lol

slewie the pi-rat's picture

hey ??!  i looked you up, cause i was ?? 'boutcha and tyler's got this (paste):  

Member for
1 year 1 hour
gotta love that!  you're certainly special, and today is your day!
peace, love, and i'm wondering why the minutes and seconds aren't there, too, at this point! 
Sudden Debt's picture

It's just a economic Wipe Out. Nothing to pay any attention to.

slewie the pi-rat's picture

but, but...with a seasonal adjustment and little birth/death bullshit, who knows?  freaky friday, BiCheZ!!!

eathquakes!  hurricanes!  man-made environmental disasters! 


lizzy36's picture

Others all over the map:


BAML = +35k

JPM = = +70k

BarCap = +100K

Nomura = -5K

SheepDog-One's picture

LOL, all the pros put together have the estimate squarely pegged at + or - about 100K, give or take.


DaveyJones's picture

clearly a science, clearly a discipline with integrity

carbonmutant's picture

Looks pretty non-linear to me...

DeadFred's picture

I hate when Goldman agrees with me. It makes me seriously question myself.

Instant Wealth's picture

Whenever you find yourself on the side of the majority, it is time to pause and reflect.

-Mark Twain-

SheepDog-One's picture

When everyone has QE3 banked without question, its time to reflect and reconsider that shit.

DaveyJones's picture

I felt the same way about my stepfather

John Law Lives's picture

As per this chart, the DJIA moved from 11579.44 at 9:58AM to 11705.94 at 10:04AM.  That is a 126+ point move in 6 minutes on economic data that really wasn't very good.

Wow.  What an efficient market we have.  Move along.  Nothing to see here...^dji;range=1d;compare=;indicator=volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=;

HelluvaEngineer's picture

I show a 13 pt move on the ES in a one minute bar.

John Law Lives's picture

Attack of the algos...  Battle bots run the markets.

Cdad's picture

Are you enjoying your Summer of Recovery yet...brought to you by criminal sydnciate Wall Street bankers?

Seasmoke's picture

only 20 more days left and then the FALL really begins

DaveyJones's picture

they've certainly dropped a helluva lot of leaves already

pods's picture

And then about 6 months till it begins with the FN FAL.


RSloane's picture

I didn't get a party hat!

CrashisOptimistic's picture

How did they expect vibrant growth with perpetual $110 oil?

Everybodys All American's picture

lowering expectations so you can call a beat the very next day. Would anyone be surprised.

SheepDog-One's picture

Go ahead and beat, further pushing any reason for 'QE3' rubbish out the window.

SeverinSlade's picture

What a world we live in.  A negative/poor NFP number could potentially send markets soaring on further Hopium of QE3.  A very strong NFP could send markets tanking on fears that QE3 won't come.

SheepDog-One's picture

Bubbles Bernank has to very carefully keep that QE3 carrot on a stick directly out in front as he tightrope walks across the Grand canyon.

Cdad's picture

And what does the BlowHorn [CNBC] choose to deep dive on this morning, after 12 hours of global recession truth telling?  Retail sales, malls, new fashion trends, assless jeans.  This...and the continuing saga of the Mets buyout offer.  Good grief.

Dear FCC,  

Considering the utter failure of the network known as the BlowHorn to actually inform people on finacial matters world wide, I respectfully ask you to withdraw their broadcasting license.  

Thank you.


Helloooooooooooo COMCAST.  Is there anyone home?

SokPOTUS's picture

As long as they keep letting MCC rock side to side in that swivel chair; who the hell cares about the audio feed?

TruthInSunshine's picture

Goldman is lowering so that the print can beat 'expectations.'

Goldman should have said that they expected a -770k print, so there could be a big rally on better than expected numbers.

p.s. - Given ADPs horrid track record, I wouldn't be surprised by a negative print, especially since any meaningful gains would have required initial claims to have fallen to around 370k or less for quite a bit of time, and we've seen 400k+ prints all year. Tomorrow's unemployment numbers could be the beginning of the renewed down trend in employment, which would meld nicely with Obama's bullshit speech next week.

SheepDog-One's picture

It will come out 'Goldilocks' I think, we havent seen any wild deviations from expectations for a long time. They cant wildly beat expectations yet, then their cries for QE would fall flat...that is unless theyre ready to pull the rug out now then all bets are off.

alien-IQ's picture

plus it's a holiday weekend coming. can't have frowny faces during happy holidays.

"To keep information from the public is the function of the corporate media."
Gore Vidal

alien-IQ's picture

Now everyone will scramble to lower forecast, ultimately ending up with a consensus of -250k and when it comes in at -200k, the market will rally in celebration that the NFP "beat forecasts".

Ponzi on Wayne?
Ponzi on Garth.

Cone of Uncertainty's picture

Birth Death Ratio bitches!!!

SheepDog-One's picture

Well so much for the Shit&Pee being up against strong resistance earlier this morning, algobots do not recognize trend lines. 

digalert's picture

Boy, are we ever hurting!

We need a TOTUS speech now!


SheepDog-One's picture

WOW and from +100 to -20 again on the DUH in 5 minutes....yea 'Robert Paulson' do you want to come back and tell me Im an idiot this morning for saying there are no fundamentals or technicals at all in this market? Explain that technical move, I'm waiting.

carbonmutant's picture

It's cool. Our community organizer has a plan. On Thursday we get to find out who he's gonna blame next...

SheepDog-One's picture

Its the Underpants Gnomes fault.

Cdad's picture

If anyone needs further proof of just how stupid our criminal syndicate Wall Street clan really is, there is actually a sizable contingency of these mentally challenged clowns who are positioning for a burst of "recovery" to come from this next speech by President Zero.

What...would this be about the 300th speech this guy has given?   

SheepDog-One's picture

I'm guessing the puppet in chief wont be mentioning his pet solar panel green company which just went belly up yesterday.