Goldman Cuts Its NFP Forecast From 50K To 25K

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Thu, 09/01/2011 - 10:59 | 1622672 ??
??'s picture

Straight from the horse's mouth

try ass, in this case Goldman

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 11:01 | 1622680 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

LOL, watch NFP come in +200,000 tomorrow.

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 11:08 | 1622703 kito
kito's picture

yep, if goldman is now calling for 25,000, im willing to bet its closer to 100,000.

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 11:15 | 1622725 Ancona
Ancona's picture

Even with a miss tomorrow, the algos will push the market higher for us.

Bullish! <sarc>


Thu, 09/01/2011 - 11:27 | 1622765 bankrupt JPM bu...
bankrupt JPM buy silver's picture

I'm assuming a -30 phily fed will be much worse that 50 NFP.  This might catch a lot of motherfuckers offside tomorrow.

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 13:09 | 1623027 rocker
rocker's picture

The Set Up is in.   Anything over 25 will be "Better than Expected".

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 11:28 | 1622768 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Yep, and push any reason for QE3 right out the back window.

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 11:16 | 1622730 HelluvaEngineer
HelluvaEngineer's picture

...and it would be even funnier if it were higher than that and they decide to shank the market anyway.

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 11:28 | 1622767 vote_libertaria...
vote_libertarian_party's picture

It will be a negative number.  Maybe even 6 figures.


(Obama needs a bad number this month because he is asking for money on Thursday)

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 21:27 | 1624557 Needsomebling
Needsomebling's picture

Underpromise Overdeliver...I hear Bama and Chairsatan making an annopuncement next Thursday. Guess its time for the weekly dose of Hopium the market needs lol

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 12:10 | 1622866 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

hey ??!  i looked you up, cause i was ?? 'boutcha and tyler's got this (paste):  

Member for
1 year 1 hour
gotta love that!  you're certainly special, and today is your day!
peace, love, and i'm wondering why the minutes and seconds aren't there, too, at this point! 
Thu, 09/01/2011 - 11:00 | 1622677 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

It's just a economic Wipe Out. Nothing to pay any attention to.

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 11:02 | 1622684 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

but, but...with a seasonal adjustment and little birth/death bullshit, who knows?  freaky friday, BiCheZ!!!

eathquakes!  hurricanes!  man-made environmental disasters! 


Thu, 09/01/2011 - 11:05 | 1622690 lizzy36
lizzy36's picture

Others all over the map:


BAML = +35k

JPM = = +70k

BarCap = +100K

Nomura = -5K

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 11:23 | 1622752 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

LOL, all the pros put together have the estimate squarely pegged at + or - about 100K, give or take.


Thu, 09/01/2011 - 11:36 | 1622776 DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

clearly a science, clearly a discipline with integrity

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 11:41 | 1622805 carbonmutant
carbonmutant's picture

Looks pretty non-linear to me...

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 11:07 | 1622699 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

I hate when Goldman agrees with me. It makes me seriously question myself.

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 11:12 | 1622719 Instant Wealth
Instant Wealth's picture

Whenever you find yourself on the side of the majority, it is time to pause and reflect.

-Mark Twain-

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 11:36 | 1622790 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

When everyone has QE3 banked without question, its time to reflect and reconsider that shit.

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 11:33 | 1622781 DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

I felt the same way about my stepfather

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 11:11 | 1622716 John Law Lives
John Law Lives's picture

As per this chart, the DJIA moved from 11579.44 at 9:58AM to 11705.94 at 10:04AM.  That is a 126+ point move in 6 minutes on economic data that really wasn't very good.

Wow.  What an efficient market we have.  Move along.  Nothing to see here...^dji;range=1d;compare=;indicator=volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=;

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 11:19 | 1622740 HelluvaEngineer
HelluvaEngineer's picture

I show a 13 pt move on the ES in a one minute bar.

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 11:33 | 1622782 John Law Lives
John Law Lives's picture

Attack of the algos...  Battle bots run the markets.

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 15:21 | 1623408 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

Rockem' Sockem.

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 11:15 | 1622728 Cdad
Cdad's picture

Are you enjoying your Summer of Recovery yet...brought to you by criminal sydnciate Wall Street bankers?

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 11:18 | 1622736 Seasmoke
Seasmoke's picture

only 20 more days left and then the FALL really begins

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 11:39 | 1622801 DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

they've certainly dropped a helluva lot of leaves already

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 12:06 | 1622853 pods
pods's picture

And then about 6 months till it begins with the FN FAL.


Thu, 09/01/2011 - 14:15 | 1623208 RSloane
RSloane's picture

I didn't get a party hat!

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 11:18 | 1622737 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

How did they expect vibrant growth with perpetual $110 oil?

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 11:19 | 1622741 Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

lowering expectations so you can call a beat the very next day. Would anyone be surprised.

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 11:24 | 1622758 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Go ahead and beat, further pushing any reason for 'QE3' rubbish out the window.

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 11:21 | 1622746 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

it's a man baby

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 11:21 | 1622747 SeverinSlade
SeverinSlade's picture

What a world we live in.  A negative/poor NFP number could potentially send markets soaring on further Hopium of QE3.  A very strong NFP could send markets tanking on fears that QE3 won't come.

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 11:26 | 1622761 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Bubbles Bernank has to very carefully keep that QE3 carrot on a stick directly out in front as he tightrope walks across the Grand canyon.

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 11:24 | 1622756 Cdad
Cdad's picture

And what does the BlowHorn [CNBC] choose to deep dive on this morning, after 12 hours of global recession truth telling?  Retail sales, malls, new fashion trends, assless jeans.  This...and the continuing saga of the Mets buyout offer.  Good grief.

Dear FCC,  

Considering the utter failure of the network known as the BlowHorn to actually inform people on finacial matters world wide, I respectfully ask you to withdraw their broadcasting license.  

Thank you.


Helloooooooooooo COMCAST.  Is there anyone home?

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 12:09 | 1622865 SokPOTUS
SokPOTUS's picture

As long as they keep letting MCC rock side to side in that swivel chair; who the hell cares about the audio feed?

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 11:27 | 1622763 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Goldman is lowering so that the print can beat 'expectations.'

Goldman should have said that they expected a -770k print, so there could be a big rally on better than expected numbers.

p.s. - Given ADPs horrid track record, I wouldn't be surprised by a negative print, especially since any meaningful gains would have required initial claims to have fallen to around 370k or less for quite a bit of time, and we've seen 400k+ prints all year. Tomorrow's unemployment numbers could be the beginning of the renewed down trend in employment, which would meld nicely with Obama's bullshit speech next week.

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 11:33 | 1622783 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

It will come out 'Goldilocks' I think, we havent seen any wild deviations from expectations for a long time. They cant wildly beat expectations yet, then their cries for QE would fall flat...that is unless theyre ready to pull the rug out now then all bets are off.

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 12:01 | 1622845 alien-IQ
alien-IQ's picture

plus it's a holiday weekend coming. can't have frowny faces during happy holidays.

"To keep information from the public is the function of the corporate media."
Gore Vidal

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 11:30 | 1622773 alien-IQ
alien-IQ's picture

Now everyone will scramble to lower forecast, ultimately ending up with a consensus of -250k and when it comes in at -200k, the market will rally in celebration that the NFP "beat forecasts".

Ponzi on Wayne?
Ponzi on Garth.

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 11:34 | 1622787 Cone of Uncertainty
Cone of Uncertainty's picture

Birth Death Ratio bitches!!!

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 11:37 | 1622794 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Well so much for the Shit&Pee being up against strong resistance earlier this morning, algobots do not recognize trend lines. 

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 11:37 | 1622795 digalert
digalert's picture

Boy, are we ever hurting!

We need a TOTUS speech now!


Thu, 09/01/2011 - 11:40 | 1622802 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

WOW and from +100 to -20 again on the DUH in 5 minutes....yea 'Robert Paulson' do you want to come back and tell me Im an idiot this morning for saying there are no fundamentals or technicals at all in this market? Explain that technical move, I'm waiting.

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 11:43 | 1622809 carbonmutant
carbonmutant's picture

It's cool. Our community organizer has a plan. On Thursday we get to find out who he's gonna blame next...

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 11:44 | 1622812 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Its the Underpants Gnomes fault.

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 11:49 | 1622824 Cdad
Cdad's picture

If anyone needs further proof of just how stupid our criminal syndicate Wall Street clan really is, there is actually a sizable contingency of these mentally challenged clowns who are positioning for a burst of "recovery" to come from this next speech by President Zero.

What...would this be about the 300th speech this guy has given?   

Thu, 09/01/2011 - 11:51 | 1622827 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

I'm guessing the puppet in chief wont be mentioning his pet solar panel green company which just went belly up yesterday.

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