Goldman Cuts Q3 Growth Forecast In Half, Sees Q3, Q4 GDP At 1.0%, 1.5%, Presents Jackson Hole Event Walk Thru

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Fri, 08/19/2011 - 21:42 | 1579841 lolmao500
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Fri, 08/19/2011 - 21:57 | 1579889 markmotive
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It's amazing how fast stories and outlooks change.

I'm still waiting for the mainstream to admit that gold is not in a bubble. To hit the bubble peak of 1981, based on this metric gold would neet to hit $7250!!

When my mom tells me she wants to buy gold...that's when I know it's over.

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 22:12 | 1579924 Oro
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My mom asked about it today. I believe we have along way to go!

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 23:17 | 1580112 Caviar Emptor
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My mom is a gold bug. We ain't seen nothing yet

Sat, 08/20/2011 - 15:04 | 1581708 mkkby
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Mark Motive -- After your mom put her clothes back on, she asked the football team about internet stocks.  So I guess the nasdaq was never a bubble.  Sorry, that was just too tempting :)

The fed doesn't want to seem predictable or giving in to pressure.  Since everyone is anticipating a QE announcement next week, it won't happen.  They'll try to make it a surprise some other time.

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 22:16 | 1579936 Sequitur
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What do you mean over? Frankly, nothing is over until the Eurozone is resolved (and I think that will be implosion of the banks and the sovereign debt, with a massive rush to safety). Germany will not bail out its WWII enemies.

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 23:30 | 1580146 Arius
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What Germany couldnt achieve through military Wars in either World War I and World War II, is surely accomplishing it peacefully through World War III.

Germany might never be allowed AGAIN to develop as a threatening big military power, but they have managed to be a mighty economic ruthless superpower!

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 23:49 | 1580203 HungrySeagull
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We are probably already in the early stages of a full blown WW3 shooting era.

Sat, 08/20/2011 - 02:38 | 1580388 FlyPaper
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I seriously doubt the Germans are looking at European nations as their old enemies.  That generation is nearly gone (as it is in the US).   The German culture is fairly thrift oriented; and they still have the sting of the Weimar disaster.  I doubt that very few people are willing to bail out their neighbors for their stupidity in managing their finances; hence I think the Germans will bail out their own banks (or perhaps their depositors) in order to stabilize their economy; but I will be surprised as hell if they will sign up to bail out countries in order to save the Euro and I'll be even more surprised if they agree to bail out their banks at 100%.  

Implying that the Germans of today hate their old enemies seems rather unjust.

Sat, 08/20/2011 - 05:22 | 1580527 gwar5
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Not about hating, it's about access and acquisition to resources to maintain lifestyles. 

"Countries don't have feelings, they have interests."

"It's not personal, it's strictly business." -- Michael Corleone

Sat, 08/20/2011 - 00:07 | 1580240 mayhem_korner
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Think about it...the price of gold has to rise in real terms for it to catch up with the 1981 highs.  So if the dollar is continually de-based, the equivalency price will keep going up. 

What would the equivalent price need to be if the DXY was at 30?

It may never catch up!


Fri, 08/19/2011 - 21:43 | 1579843 Spitzer
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"he could argue that securities purchases ward off the tail risk"

Tail risk again... Isn't that why he said people buy gold, because of "tail risk" ? So gold should fall by purchasing securities....Hmmmm.

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 22:51 | 1580031 Pancho Villa
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Reducing tail risk... Is that in any way related to covering your ass?

Sat, 08/20/2011 - 11:12 | 1580980 RSloane
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Direct correlation!

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 21:48 | 1579855 DormRoom
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The US has always gone into a recession with GDP growth of < 2%, since WWII.  Third revision Q1 GDP was .08%.  First revision Q2 GDP was 1.7%.  We are likely in a recession right now, but bank economists won't say so, until their trading desks finish unwinding.


Fri, 08/19/2011 - 22:14 | 1579930 oblonsky
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the funny thing about recessions is that if you tell people long enough that we're not in recession, it's actually possible that you prevent the recession from occurring. it's a self-fulfilling prophecy. if people think we won't enter a recession they may be willing to spend more, consider buying that house, car, whatever. but if you tell people "we're entering a recession" many people will put off those same purchases, and, lo and behold, the prediction will come true. 

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 23:15 | 1580102 WonderDawg
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Wrong on many levels. Business cycles demand recessions, they are a natural occurence in a healthy business cycle.

Also, we (humans) are hard-wired to move along a mood spectrum with optimism on one end and pessimism on the other. As we move across the spectrum, bull markets and bear markets occur. Socionomics postulates that these natural "mood swings" are the root motive of business cycles.

Whatever the case, you can't wish a recession away.

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 23:19 | 1580115 Caviar Emptor
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Yup. The recession is all in our heads

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 23:26 | 1580138 WonderDawg
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I left out a pretty important aspect of the socionomics theory: humans in a society collectively move from optimism to pessimism and back and forth again, in an endogenous instinct related to the primal herding impulse. This is the root motive for business cycles. That's the theory in a nutshell, as it applies to the economy.

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 23:36 | 1580172 Caviar Emptor
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So..maybe the government should distribute free Prozac

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 23:48 | 1580199 WonderDawg
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Fuck that, just legalize weed.

Sat, 08/20/2011 - 00:09 | 1580241 Caviar Emptor
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We're on it. 

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 23:48 | 1580200 HungrySeagull
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Free Zanex to reduce anxiety so they can make better trades.

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 21:47 | 1579861 onlooker
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""Now: who will join Zero Hedge in calling for negative GDP in Q3 and most likely Q4""  Hey, I'll join you in what ever the hell you wanta do or go. Just toot the horn, I'm packed.

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 21:53 | 1579875 lunaticfringe
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Wanna carpool?

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 22:08 | 1579914 Drag Racer
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I hope GDP does go negative. GDP calculation is a joke. Less Gov. spending means a drop in GDP. People saving instead of wasted spending means a drop in GDP. Less financial shenanigans means a drop in GDP. What's not to like...


can we get back to 'real' production now? I'm getting a bit tired of this made in China crap.

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 23:36 | 1580171 OldPhart
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That's a butt-ugly chart.

Notice how that gaps from the 90's forward?

Sat, 08/20/2011 - 05:09 | 1580521 gwar5
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Nice chart. That's the go-to place for real data.


Fri, 08/19/2011 - 23:16 | 1580107 WonderDawg
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I'll take it a step further and say that when the final revisions are in, Q2 was negative.

Sat, 08/20/2011 - 05:07 | 1580520 gwar5
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Isn't GDP already negative priced in those debasing nominal USD? 

Isn't that the problem, and we're just shuffling paper money around on the plate with the fork?

It's Gross and Domestic, but there's no Product.


Sat, 08/20/2011 - 10:42 | 1580896 RSloane
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Well said.

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 19:07 | 1584273 IQ 145
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I join. Considering inflation it is negative now.

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 21:49 | 1579864 Cheesy Bastard
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Fri, 08/19/2011 - 21:52 | 1579872 lunaticfringe
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If the Fed leaves interest rates near zero for two years, why the fuck do we need them at all? Can't we just lay them off? At least for a couple years?

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 21:57 | 1579887 Drag Racer
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and across the street we see...

JP Morgan’s off-Balance Sheet

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 22:05 | 1579909 digalert
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Hey Golden Slax

Ya gonna join S&P with a USA downgrade?

How about Moodis analyst admitting you're all liars?

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 22:22 | 1579951 Mister Minsk
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Goldman who?

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 22:28 | 1579964 YesWeKahn
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Another down day Monday?

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 22:35 | 1579979 Long-John-Silver
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I can't remember which talking head on CNBC said it but DOW 8,000 was not an unreasonable drop unless Europe crashes. 

He continued by saying if Europe did crash and they all started printing their own money again things would get really ugly like Gold becoming real money again.

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 22:39 | 1579987 Sequitur
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Eurozone will crash. German press advised citizens to buy gold weeks ago. The Eurozone experiment is over, the only way out is default.

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 22:43 | 1579967 sitenine
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No growth you say?  Et Tu, Brute?  GS, you were so faithful for so long, doing God's work and all.  Too bad, now you will surely be cut out of the will.


OT: I've seen a few stories on this new IBM chip:

We could soon invent a 'being' far smarter than we are.

Wouldn't it be a bitch if the first words it spoke were, "We're so fucked."?

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 22:46 | 1580019 papaswamp
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Skynet needs the troops....the T-1

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 23:47 | 1580196 OldPhart
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Worse is when it says "Humans are now fucked."

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 22:38 | 1579985 Ass to Mouth
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Goldman is an ATM queen.

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 22:41 | 1579999 papaswamp
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So who will be the first to declare a neagtive GDP? Bets anyone?

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 23:48 | 1580198 Yen Cross
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I respect you PaPa..  You are a trader of class!  

Yen Cross

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 22:53 | 1580037 Seasmoke
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oh yes the fix is in, but i dont think they get away with it this time

Fri, 08/19/2011 - 23:03 | 1580060 Mark Noonan
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So, about three months in to the actual recession they should cut it to 0.5% growth?

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