Goldman Cuts US Q2 GDP Two Times In Two Hours

Tyler Durden's picture


First Goldman released this just after the trade data came out:

The trade deficit improves broadly as expected to $48.7bn in May, as nominal exports rise (+0.2%) and imports fall (-0.7%) on the month. (The April trade deficit was revised up slightly from $50.1bn to $50.6bn). The improvement in the trade deficit, however, was driven by a decline in petroleum imports (and thus an improvement in the petroleum deficit) while the real ex-petroleum trade deficit actually widened from $40.3bn in April to $41.4bn in May. The trade report is a slight negative for our Q2 GDP growth tracking estimate which we lowered from 1.5% to 1.4%.

And, moments ago after the wholesale Inventories was released, Goldman came out with this:

Wholesale inventories rose in line with the consensus expectation in May (up 0.3%), but from a downward revised April level. As a result, we revised down our Q2 US GDP tracking estimate to +1.3% from +1.4%.

Luckily there aren't another 13 releases today or we may be in recession right now.

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Wed, 07/11/2012 - 10:38 | 2605932 midgetrannyporn
Wed, 07/11/2012 - 10:50 | 2605991 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Goldman lies.  JPM lies.  The Fed lies.

Be done with the lies.

On this Friday, the 13th, take back your right to bear real money!

Bomb the Cartel!  Buy Silver!!

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 11:26 | 2606158 JustObserving
JustObserving's picture

"Bomb the Cartel!  Buy Silver!!"

All the silver bullion in the world is worth under $30 billion.  That is peanuts to the cartel and the Fed.  The cartel has been crushing gold and silver for decades (Gordon Brown bailed out the cartel by selling British gold at $280 an ounce circa 1998) and manipulating stocks higher.

The cartel will continue to win until the dollar loses its reserve status and collapses. 

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 11:36 | 2606195 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Dollar denomination means nothing.  Our concern is taking the bullion back. 

Stack that money!

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 11:51 | 2606256 Tippoo Sultan
Tippoo Sultan's picture

<< Luckily there aren't another 13 releases today or we may be in recession right now. >>


Wed, 07/11/2012 - 12:56 | 2606535 AmCockerSpaniel
AmCockerSpaniel's picture

YES; How is a recession defined?

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 12:01 | 2606309 DosZap
DosZap's picture

The cartel will continue to win until the dollar loses its reserve status and collapses. 

Or, until so many people are buying phyzz there is a almost total lack of supply.

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 10:56 | 2606030 fx
fx's picture

Can't await the moment that algos take over here as well and revise GDP forecasts every three milliseconds. Real-time GDP data - showing the complete lack of real GDP growth. A real bummer!

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 10:41 | 2605936 ATG
ATG's picture

We are in depression right now TD.

Still long and strong until the margin calls, coughs or craps out:


Wed, 07/11/2012 - 10:41 | 2605952 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Why the world continues to sell us stuff and run a trade deficit of that magnitude for worthless fiat is beyond me.

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 11:00 | 2606050 fx
fx's picture

Looking at the quality of lots of the stuff "made in China" I wonder what's more fiat - the product or the money spent on it.

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 10:41 | 2605953 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture




Wed, 07/11/2012 - 10:47 | 2605984 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Next year we'll barter?

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 10:45 | 2605959 Captain Benny
Captain Benny's picture

6/29 Goldman lowers GDP forecast a day after raising it


7/3 Goldman lowers to 1.5%


Those idiots at Goldman really suck at forecasts.... seems they're just responding to news events that are backward looking.  What happens when the trend continues?  13 more revisions to anally fuck muppets?

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 11:54 | 2606265 fx
fx's picture

Maybe they plan to launch a futures contract soon - not on real GDP but on Goldman's expected forecasts. That could make for exciting, volatile intraday sessions. And a year from now they could launch a volatility future on that too. Welcome to a golden future, indeed!

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 10:43 | 2605963 The Duck Stops Here
The Duck Stops Here's picture

It doesn't matter, as long as at 2pm today the market can find the letters "E" "A" "S" "I" "N" "G", not even in that order, in the FOMC minutes, the market will rally like goldman had uped the forecast to 8 percent

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 10:43 | 2605964 cougar_w
cougar_w's picture

Luckily there aren't another 13 releases today or we may be in recession right now per Goldman Sachs.

Snarky Tyler is snarky!

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 11:25 | 2606153 Nobody For President
Nobody For President's picture

Yeah, I liked that one a lot as well. 

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 10:47 | 2605977 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

A desperate plea for more free fiat cash to leverage up their books with.  Everyone on WS is praying for more stimulus. 

It's bad out here Bernanke!  It's baad!!  We need da moniez!!!  Give us da moniez!!!!!

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 10:48 | 2605983 dracos_ghost
dracos_ghost's picture

Maybe they found a way to front-run themselves. Damn Muppetts.


Wed, 07/11/2012 - 10:54 | 2606022 sosoome
sosoome's picture

Next thing you know, they'll be revising actuals after the fact.

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 10:57 | 2606032 cowdiddly
cowdiddly's picture

They have to leave it high to try until the last few minutes before Berskanke opens his piehole to try and sucker a few more muppets. Muppets are like hound dogs- after about the second time of being kicked for lying on the porch, they avoid the porch altogether.

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 11:06 | 2606077 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

There has been a change in attitude since May in my clients.

They are 'filthy' rich.Net worth in the 100's of millions personally.

Now arguing over every penny, and taking forever to pay.

Reminds me of  of 2007 & 8.

This is going downhill fast from here.

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 11:27 | 2606161 Nobody For President
Nobody For President's picture

Shit, by that definition, I ain't even moderately soiled rich...

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 11:59 | 2606300 DosZap
DosZap's picture

Net worth in the 100's of millions personally.

Now arguing over every penny, and taking forever to pay.

The love of mammon is the root of ALL evil.

Meanwhile 46 million are on gov subsidies,and these vultures argue of pennies...............

They have my utmost contempt.

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 11:11 | 2606103 MillionDollarBoner_
MillionDollarBoner_'s picture

How much is it per forecast? Is there a three-for-twoer?

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 11:18 | 2606130 Mr_Wonderful
Mr_Wonderful's picture

It isn´t bad until the SPX 1050-1100 bottom of last Oct. is threatened.

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 11:59 | 2606298 Duke of Con Dao
Duke of Con Dao's picture

I, Duke, can resist everything except temptation. 

esp. the chance to roll out this old chestnut. cue the music!

YouTube - Goldman Sachs Squid Skull Hood Ornament - Arriving for the Kill

Wed, 07/11/2012 - 12:54 | 2606528 Atlantis Consigliore
Atlantis Consigliore's picture

its a stinking recession,  ....Blackstone Dumping all Properties....





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