Goldman Cuts US Q2 GDP Two Times In Two Hours
First Goldman released this just after the trade data came out:
The trade deficit improves broadly as expected to $48.7bn in May, as nominal exports rise (+0.2%) and imports fall (-0.7%) on the month. (The April trade deficit was revised up slightly from $50.1bn to $50.6bn). The improvement in the trade deficit, however, was driven by a decline in petroleum imports (and thus an improvement in the petroleum deficit) while the real ex-petroleum trade deficit actually widened from $40.3bn in April to $41.4bn in May. The trade report is a slight negative for our Q2 GDP growth tracking estimate which we lowered from 1.5% to 1.4%.
And, moments ago after the wholesale Inventories was released, Goldman came out with this:
Wholesale inventories rose in line with the consensus expectation in May (up 0.3%), but from a downward revised April level. As a result, we revised down our Q2 US GDP tracking estimate to +1.3% from +1.4%.
Luckily there aren't another 13 releases today or we may be in recession right now.
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