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Goldman Denies CNBC Report It Raised Its Payroll Forecast: Squid Sees Only 50,000 Increase In NFP, And Expects Downside Risk

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Remember when some soon to be without any credibility media outlet (BLOOMBERG - GOLDMAN BOOSTS FORECAST FOR SEPT.PAYROLLS TO 91K:CNBC) reported less than an hour ago that Goldman hiked its NFP forecast? Well, said media "outlet" got it wrong. In fact Goldman's forecast is only for a 50,000 increase in NFP. Just out from Goldman: "The ISM non-manufacturing index was about unchanged in September at 53.0, and close to the consensus forecast (52.8). Encouragingly, the indexes for new orders and overall business activity both increased during the month (the new orders index rose by 3.7 points to 56.5). The new export orders deteriorated, suggesting the improvement in new orders reflected domestic demand. The uptick in orders and overall business activity sentiment are good signs for near-term growth momentum.In contrast, the employment component of the report fell by 2.9 points to 48.7. This indicator suggests downside risks to September payroll employment growth, at least partly offsetting the better-than-expected news from the ADP report this morning. Overall we see a bit of upside risk to our forecast for a 50,000 increase in nonfarm payrolls, but we have not made any changes to our estimate (an incorrect report that we changed our estimate was circulating this morning)." And as Zero Hedge already explained, "Interestingly detailed comments from survey participants suggest that confidence and uncertainty may be weighing on activity, and that firms are downbeat about the 2012 outlook." Sorry guys, Goldman hates this economy, and will not relent until Bernanke launches a $2 trillion LSAP. But feel free to sell your gold to Goldman which is buying up every ounce.

 

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Wed, 10/05/2011 - 11:00 | 1741341 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

'But feel free to sell your gold to Goldman which is buying up every ounce.'

Yea, that's not going to happen.

When even Bloomberg has caught on to how worthless CNBC is, you know the end is near... How does a person short CNBC? GE?

Wed, 10/05/2011 - 11:04 | 1741362 Frog-And-Toad
Frog-And-Toad's picture

This whole "Free market" is a joke.  

 

As Al Capone said about the stock market in 1927:  "It's a racket. Those stock market guys are crooked."

Wed, 10/05/2011 - 11:09 | 1741386 LRC Fan
LRC Fan's picture

You're "free" to simply not participate. 

Lots of money to be made in markets like this, if you're good/lucky the high volatiity is exactly what you want. 

Wed, 10/05/2011 - 11:28 | 1741465 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Agreed.  I trade worthless fiat in for silver and I have stockpiled quite a lot of monie.

Wed, 10/05/2011 - 12:39 | 1741820 Smiddywesson
Smiddywesson's picture

The only trick CNBC hasn't tried is to add stripper poles to the newsroom.  It won't do squat for their credibility but it will help with the ratings. 

Wed, 10/05/2011 - 10:59 | 1741346 Chain Gun Smoke
Chain Gun Smoke's picture

Still better than 0. Markets will be green at announcement.

Wed, 10/05/2011 - 11:00 | 1741348 GolfHatesMe
GolfHatesMe's picture

Bloomberg is a joke.  Every Friday I email a link to thesaurus.com to Christopher Wellisz, editor, to find a new word for Unexpected.

 

cwellisz@bloomberg.net

 

Wed, 10/05/2011 - 11:05 | 1741367 Tyler Durden
Tyler Durden's picture

Bloomberg was merely citing CNBC on the issue.

Wed, 10/05/2011 - 11:10 | 1741390 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

The rumor is what counts...they can settle who got what wrong and out of context later after the stock ramp up.

Wed, 10/05/2011 - 11:19 | 1741422 wang (not verified)
wang's picture

Golfer

Bloomberg is fine sometimes, like when they sued the fed. But their on air (especially TV is becoming more and more CNBSish). It is hard to believe that Mikey doesn't somehow bring to bear his political preferences both in selection of guests and hostesses. You've got Arthur Levitt almost  every morning on the radio usually on the phone from the terrace of his palatial residence  in Westport fronting on Long Island Sound, Bloomys political reporters like Al Hunt (Harwood clone) and a bunch of anchorettes trying to 'toe' the MSM line wanting to be the next CNN prime time news queen. 

Wed, 10/05/2011 - 11:01 | 1741351 Dick Darlington
Dick Darlington's picture

OT: Look at the unbelievable CORRUPTION and FRAUD in Spanish banks. We all know they are doomed while receiving billions after billions of tax payer money in order to pretend all is well and the ordinary people get hosed day after day.

http://www.elpais.com/articulo/english/Novacaixagalicia/makes/scandalous...

 

And this is what the people are facing while corrupted and insolvent banks enjoy their lives like it's still 2006.

http://www.elpais.com/articulo/english/Teachers/take/to/Madrid/streets/i...

http://www.elpais.com/articulo/english/Jobless/claims/for/September/hit/...

Wed, 10/05/2011 - 11:02 | 1741357 Don Birnam
Don Birnam's picture

Still waiting for that retraction/correction, Liesman, et al.

Wed, 10/05/2011 - 11:16 | 1741411 gojam
gojam's picture

Don't hold your breath.

"Who controls the past controls the future. Who controls the present controls the past - Orwell

Wed, 10/05/2011 - 11:24 | 1741439 au_bayitch
au_bayitch's picture

And all this time I thought Rage against the Machine said that. Testify. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1JSBhI_0at0 

Wed, 10/05/2011 - 11:02 | 1741358 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture
Anonymous Vows to Attack NYSE

"Anonymous, a group of self-styled hacker-activists behind attacks on corporate and government websites, vowed to support the Occupy Wall Street protests by erasing the New York Stock Exchange “from the Internet” on Oct. 10."

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-10-05/anonymous-vows-to-attack-nyse-i...

 

Wed, 10/05/2011 - 11:11 | 1741378 Money 4 Nothing
Money 4 Nothing's picture

IMHO, Never happen unless it's Hari Kari. Columbus Day? I dunno...

Wed, 10/05/2011 - 11:10 | 1741389 john39
john39's picture

anonymous smells like GOV to me.

Wed, 10/05/2011 - 11:30 | 1741447 Josh Randall
Josh Randall's picture

exactly - true activists don't have a manifesto for Open Borders, with no mention of the Fed, etc..

Plus true Hacktivist would not broadcast where they would hack next...his plays right into the Govt's hands to regulate the internet because of all these nefarious types out there threatening our financial systems.

The well meaning good folks at the occupyWallSt are having their message hijacked - BIG TIME

Wed, 10/05/2011 - 11:36 | 1741498 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

What is scarier than knowing something is coming and being unable to stop it?  The threat, followed by "success" in an attack, would be much more worrisome than just a random attack.

 

That being said, I was just sharing the story. 

Wed, 10/05/2011 - 11:16 | 1741412 DosZap
DosZap's picture

Temporalist

I am dead certain Benny B, would love ANON to erase HIS books on the 10th.

When & if the books are ever opened 100%, they will be mass imprisonment.

Wed, 10/05/2011 - 12:45 | 1741845 Smiddywesson
Smiddywesson's picture

Now THERE is a good conspiracy theory.  Oct. 10 Wall Street is "attacked" and all the incriminating documentation disappears.  I like it.

Wed, 10/05/2011 - 11:03 | 1741360 Money 4 Nothing
Money 4 Nothing's picture

I'm going to go with.. Pant's on fire for $500 Alex. 

Wed, 10/05/2011 - 11:04 | 1741365 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

Now that many ST momentum indicators have turned up after yesterday's assblast.

All dips are going to be bought with a vengeance until every idiot that bought puts when the VXX was over 50 gets vaporized.

Wed, 10/05/2011 - 11:16 | 1741393 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

MomoFader back in the zone, sniffing out bullshit FT driven rumor momo pops, reporting on them well after the fact of course. Pathetic paytroll.

Wed, 10/05/2011 - 11:14 | 1741402 Pladizow
Pladizow's picture

And this relates to the subject matter how?

Wed, 10/05/2011 - 11:21 | 1741427 John Law Lives
John Law Lives's picture

Too bad ZH doesn't have a yawn meter. Robo would rack up on the yawns.

Wed, 10/05/2011 - 12:21 | 1741713 SILVERGEDDON
SILVERGEDDON's picture

Yahoo! Some one is going to buy the Robo dip, and put his bitch ass to work for a living! Man' you are so fucking predictable - like a dog that licks his asshole, then looks to plant a wet one on his master, you are the best friend a guy could have! BSARK!

Wed, 10/05/2011 - 11:08 | 1741379 fuu
fuu's picture

I read that as "GOLDMAN BOOSTS FORECAST FOR SEPT.PAYTROLLS TO 91K:CNBC".

Wed, 10/05/2011 - 11:13 | 1741395 Mercury
Mercury's picture

 But feel free to sell your gold to Goldman which is buying up every ounce.

Fiatman Sachs just doesn't have the same ring to it...

Wed, 10/05/2011 - 11:13 | 1741399 Tyler Durden
Tyler Durden's picture

+1

Wed, 10/05/2011 - 11:25 | 1741445 Mercury
Mercury's picture

God's work (and thumbs on the scale) or no, those boys can sniff out relative value when they have to...

Wed, 10/05/2011 - 11:13 | 1741397 Moneyswirth
Moneyswirth's picture

It's a truism to anyone paying attention that CNBC is a partisan propaganda machine, an organ of leftist elites.  Yet, every time I read stories like this, it never ceases to amaze.

Can't wait to watch on Friday AM just to see the hysterics as a yet another ugly NFP print comes out.   

Wed, 10/05/2011 - 11:19 | 1741404 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

A depression market now reduced to 1 fundamental, well timed strategic rumors. Just pathetic.

Wed, 10/05/2011 - 11:21 | 1741429 Moneyswirth
Moneyswirth's picture

Indeed

Wed, 10/05/2011 - 12:53 | 1741886 Smiddywesson
Smiddywesson's picture

No, it's a puppet show for all the tiny little creatures to hit each other over the head while the people who really count look on and laugh.

Wed, 10/05/2011 - 11:16 | 1741410 s2man
s2man's picture

Yesterday, Bloomberg rumored that Sprint was going to pay $600 for the new iPhones and sell them for $200.  S tanked 18% in minutes, only to recover just as quickly when folks figured out it wasn't true.

The jerks didn't mention the other iphone carriers.  I guess they were short S and wanted to cash out.

Wed, 10/05/2011 - 11:18 | 1741417 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

What new Iphones? I was just reading last nite the 'Iphone 5' announcement fell flat...now theyre pricing it in?

Wed, 10/05/2011 - 11:23 | 1741437 catacl1sm
catacl1sm's picture

iPhone 4S. coming to a store near you. You can get one too for $199 + a new 2 yr contract. It has a better camera than the iPhone 4!

Wed, 10/05/2011 - 11:41 | 1741520 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

Don't forget that for just that $200 you get to be instantly cool to people who live at Apple stores...and other zombies.  If you like zombie sex get the new iPhone!

Wed, 10/05/2011 - 11:19 | 1741419 Hansel
Hansel's picture

It's so stupid to predict a change smaller than the margin of error, which for the establishment survey is 100,000.  "I'm predicting that I cannot confidently measure a change."

Wed, 10/05/2011 - 11:19 | 1741424 Vincent Vega
Vincent Vega's picture

For giggles and grins I just looked on Bloomberg. GS does show their forecast for Friday's NFP number as +50,000.

Wed, 10/05/2011 - 11:21 | 1741431 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

And just this morning CNBC was whining about ZH spreading rumors? 

Wed, 10/05/2011 - 11:25 | 1741446 catacl1sm
catacl1sm's picture

"Do as I SAY, not as I DO!"

Wed, 10/05/2011 - 11:45 | 1741535 dracos_ghost
dracos_ghost's picture

Except ZH usually posts supporting documents/links to support their claims with full disclosure that humanity is corrupt with personal agendas so take it with a grain of salt. CNBC/FT/Bloomberg are just little sycophants defending the machine. I love that most of these rumours are now spread with highly dramatic headlines so the algos can sweep and trade too.

I cant believe 10 years ago the US locked up a 19 year kid for pumping and dumping on forums but CNBC, FT can do "social engineering" rumours to support th PTB without fear of prosecution.

I use to say that the markets have become like casinos. Casinos have more integrity nowadays.

Wed, 10/05/2011 - 11:22 | 1741436 vote_libertaria...
vote_libertarian_party's picture

What are 'export services'?  Is that like sending hookers to Saudia Arabia?

Wed, 10/05/2011 - 11:24 | 1741444 catacl1sm
catacl1sm's picture

Yes, but they're not hookers. They're sex slaves. Hookers get paid and 'choose' their lifestyle.

Wed, 10/05/2011 - 11:40 | 1741514 nyse
nyse's picture

+1 (Ya beat me. I must reload page before making nonsensical/redundant jokes.)

Wed, 10/05/2011 - 11:36 | 1741497 nyse
nyse's picture

Kind of... but instead of sending its selling, and instead of hookers it is blonde women.

Wed, 10/05/2011 - 11:30 | 1741469 SteveGennisonBa...
SteveGennisonBallWasher's picture

Ive got a friend in finance for one of the bigger regional banks here in Cleveland.  I tell him to read ZH all the time.  He says he does from time to time, which is probably a lie.  I talked about how yesterday's rally was completely comical.  But he can care less.  He touts Buffett as his hero, even though I've made references to how bad of a recent investor he was... case in point BofA and Goldman purchases.  These are the type of people we are dealing with, no one gives a shit how its done.  As long as the money is made.  I'm a fairly new commentor here, but thanks a lot ZH, for making me insane amongst my family and friends. 

Wed, 10/05/2011 - 11:44 | 1741527 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

You were insane already, ZH just woke you up to that fact.  Welcome to the asylum.

Wed, 10/05/2011 - 13:01 | 1741924 Smiddywesson
Smiddywesson's picture

Welcome SteveG.

What you are describing is post Soviet Russia where money made the rules.  Soon, you will be treated to a physical resemblence too, as our infrastructure is further destroyed and anything is to be had for the proper price.  It is going to be Wiermar meets the Post Soviet era.  If they start selling off parts of the government, I say we all chip in and buy a fast attack sub, turn pirates, and add to our chests of gold.

Wed, 10/05/2011 - 11:30 | 1741472 israhole
israhole's picture

I didn't think anybody still watched CNBC.

Wed, 10/05/2011 - 11:39 | 1741509 LRC Fan
LRC Fan's picture

Goldman is buying every oz of gold??  Really? 

Maybe someone better tell them about all the gold for sale on APMEX, Tulving, eBay, Gainsville, etc etc so they can "buy every oz." 

What a joke. 

And I thought if Goldman is buying, you should be selling. 

If Goldman wanted to buy every oz of gold they would already have cleaned out all the major sites in about an hour's worth of buying.  Yet there is lots of gold for sale.  Hmm 

Wed, 10/05/2011 - 12:06 | 1741571 fuu
fuu's picture

537:1 leverage in the gold derivatives space. Table 9 page 33 of the Q2 2011 PDF.

http://www.occ.treas.gov/topics/capital-markets/financial-markets/trading/derivatives/derivatives-quarterly-report.html

Wed, 10/05/2011 - 12:44 | 1741841 Schmuck Raker
Schmuck Raker's picture

Looking at Table 9 I see zeros for Goldman's gold derivatives.

Not calling you out, I just don't see it.

Wed, 10/05/2011 - 13:53 | 1741893 fuu
fuu's picture

ACK my bad, precious metals, second section of that table.

The leverage figure comes from the beginning of the table showing assets to derivatives. $88,000 vs $47,736,000. Numbers in millions.

Apparently I need to read it more h, I humbly request forgiveness.

Wed, 10/05/2011 - 11:59 | 1741582 tmosley
tmosley's picture

APMEX doesn't have even one COMEX deliverable bar of gold.

They have 129 1 oz bars of gold available.

To you, literally ANY inventory available ANYWHERE means the same as infinite inventory everywhere.  Troll logic, I guess.

Of course, they have "plenty" of 1 oz AGEs (somewhat more than 5000) for premiums in the high $80's.

And, for some reason, your dumb ass keeps bringing up Ebay, even though it demolishes your argument, as the premiums there are out of this world.  But then, troll "honor" dictates that any fact that sounds good be used, even if the tiniest bit of analysis shows that it works against the troll's overarching argument.

Wed, 10/05/2011 - 12:07 | 1741620 LRC Fan
LRC Fan's picture

If they were buying every oz, all sites (including eBay) would be cleaned out. 

Again, if gold is going much, much, much higher (100% consensus on this site), who cares about a few % extra premium?  People here don't price gold in fiat, only ounces, remember? 

Wed, 10/05/2011 - 12:11 | 1741645 tmosley
tmosley's picture

I see, so Goldman, as a collective, is a member of this site in your mind now?

You sure are mad.

Wed, 10/05/2011 - 12:28 | 1741729 LRC Fan
LRC Fan's picture

It's just funny that you always mention premiums, because you obviously think gold and silver are both going a lot higher (like at least 2x if not way more).  So why would you ever worry about a $50 or $100 or $200 premium if the price will be 3x what it is now in just a few short months?  (or whatever you think the price will be). 

Your logic makes no sense at all.  I'm sure you think gold has a fair value of at least $2k.  You can currently log onto eBay and buy tons of gold for under $2k/oz.  So what the fuck is the problem?  You say the markets are rigged, price suppressed, etc.  So who cares about some extra premiums, if the underlying is grossly undervalued? It would be the same as saying "my broker sells Apple stock for $200, when the market price is $275, but now they are charging an extra 15% in commissions!  Damn...can't buy." 

My point is, you can't sit here and say "these markets are rigged!  Gold is fairly priced somewhere around/above $2000!!" and then complain when you have to pay a higher premium but the total price per oz is still much much below your "fair value" price.  You're still getting a steal, based on YOUR OWN fair value of the metal.  So why do you continue to complain about higher premiums?  Who gives a fuck if eBay has higher prices?  It's still a great buy, right? 

Reminds me of how you warned people to report all their PM buys and sales for tax purposes.  Yet if the gov't called in all the gold/silver, you would 100% prove how big of a fucking worthless hypocrite you are and not comply with it. 

Wed, 10/05/2011 - 12:47 | 1741856 tmosley
tmosley's picture

You are very good at making strawmen.  You should open a factory.  Crows would go extinct.

No-one is complaining about high premiums.  I and others have predicted that premiums will increase, and we ARE buying at every opportunity, no matter the price.

But then, to a troll, all of his targets are hypocrites, no matter what.

Also, nice job on outing yourself as a sock puppet (again).  The discussion I had with Robotrader over the reletive merits of various investment strategies was before you registered this screen name.  He was encouraging people to sell metal for dollars and buy back the metal when it falls, not realizing that the gain that he would realize and thus have to pay taxes on his gains, which would have negated any dollar gain he made, unless silver fell below $20.  You will notice that I have told people on multiple occassions to never sell their metal for dollars.  I have told them to sell it for gold.  I never said to report buys and sales--but if you sell for dollars, you have to pay taxes on that so long as the current income tax system is in place.  You are not required to disclose PM holdings.  You are making crap up and calling my hypocritical for something that you imagine I would do.  You could spot that particular strawman from space, even with bad vision.

Why you so mad, though?

Wed, 10/05/2011 - 13:25 | 1741992 Smiddywesson
Smiddywesson's picture

Parts of your argument make sense, but you are leaving out some facts. 

Premiums are irrelevant at the beginning of the transaction if one expects gold and silver to rise exponentially, but they are incredibly important when you cash out.  If you buy low and keep your premiums low, you have more of that fabulously expensive metal to sell when the dust clears.  That should be apparant.

Also, your depiction that PM prices will continue to rise ignores the very real possibility (I say probability) that they will rise and then crash, because what is being traded is paper gold and silver, not real gold and silver.  What we are likely to see is paper PM prices continue to suffer from suppression until TPTB lose control and prices rise exponentially.  That will utterly break the paper gold market, because that is when the smart money will want their gold, and we all know that gold does not exist.  Paper gold is not a buy and hold based on fundamentals, because paper has no fundamentals.  You can be right and lose everything.

So no, I don't expect paper gold prices to march to infinity.  I expect them to continue to get kicked around until the market breaks, and then peak and collapse.  When will that be?  I don't know, but when gold dries up and premiums are close to 100% of the price of gold, it is over.  When vendors shutter their windows and stall, or shut down their web sites (which we have seen) it's getting close.  When the banks collapse, it's over.  When China has their exchange up and running, and they decide it's over, it is over.  Any one of a thousand things could bring this farce to the inevitable end, but only one of those things needs to actually light the fuse.

Most of all, your arguments confuse paper gold and physical gold.  Most of us understand that there is a huge difference between collecting physical and trading paper gold.  The former is an undeniable winner in the long run.  The latter is a very dangerous trade that can go either way depending upon your timing, because the most powerful people in the world are bullish on physical and bearish on paper gold.

Wed, 10/05/2011 - 11:45 | 1741536 tickhound
tickhound's picture

The kettle calls itself black.

Wed, 10/05/2011 - 11:55 | 1741568 Spanish Lizard
Spanish Lizard's picture

how do we know GS is buying gold?

Wed, 10/05/2011 - 12:03 | 1741600 Schmuck Raker
Schmuck Raker's picture

I wanted to ask too. But I'm chicken.

Wed, 10/05/2011 - 12:04 | 1741609 Zero Debt
Zero Debt's picture

CPI excludes food and energy, but NFP only excludes food. In all fairness, NFP should also exclude energy jobs (NFNEP), especially green energy.

Wed, 10/05/2011 - 12:20 | 1741698 PulauHantu29
PulauHantu29's picture

What about the Bonuses?

That's the only important matter these days.

Wed, 10/05/2011 - 12:24 | 1741734 Nobody For President
Nobody For President's picture

GS now referencing ZH?:

"And as Zero Hedge already explained, "

Thanks again Tyler(s)

Newbie question: So I'm looking at the DJI and S&P daily chart, and note, after the usual morning spike, absolute didlley for volume as the averages drift sideways slightly positive now downish but still green.

Is it time to panic yet, or is everybody waiting for the 3:15 rumor?

Seriously, what's with this shit-for-volume?

Wed, 10/05/2011 - 12:28 | 1741762 SILVERGEDDON
SILVERGEDDON's picture

Goldman is gonna make like a car dealership - every month, every office, fire the low man on the totem pole. That will speed up the process of natural selection, put a legitimate unemployment insurance applicant on to the rolls, and pay for bonuses for the top guys! PUT THAT COFFEE DOWN!!! COFFEE IS FOR CLOSERS!!!!!       First prize is the trip to Hawaii. Second prize is this set of Ginsu steak knives. Third prize? There is no third prize - YOU'RE FIRED!

Wed, 10/05/2011 - 12:33 | 1741789 PulauHantu29
PulauHantu29's picture
Bank of America to shut down lending division.....AP

NEW YORK (AP) — Bank of America is closing down one of its mortgage units.

The Charlotte, N.C. bank put its "correspondent lending" business up for sale on Aug. 31. It couldn't find a suitable buyer and has decided to close the business by the end of the year, said bank spokesman Terry Francisco.

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karmete's picture

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