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Goldman On The Fed: Perception Over Substance

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Perhaps never a more truthful 'lifting-the-veil' paragraph has been written by the squid as the following discussion of just what NEW QE will consist of and what it will achieve; sad that our economy market has come to this.

"The form of any return to QE is less clear. The issue is not so much whether the Fed buys Treasuries or agency mortgage-backed securities; we are pretty sure that any new program would be primarily focused on agency MBS purchases. These should have a somewhat bigger per-dollar effect on private-sector demand and are probably less controversial with the public than Treasury purchases. They can be framed as help for homebuyers to achieve the American Dream, which sounds better than help for the government to run large budget deficits."

Contrasting with the consensus view that we must eat cake QE3, Goldman tends to agree with Michael Woodford's recent J-Hole note that "large-scale asset purchases are neither necessary nor effective in easing financial conditions, at least not beyond the signal they convey about future short-term interest rates" and as we explained on Friday (Scary Math Of QE), the Fed is limited by Treasury market size in its monetization efforts there, and by the scarcity of MBS new issuance and availability in the MBS market. However, paradoxically, they still expect an open-ended QE2-plus size new LSAP and forward rate guidance moves - since that is what the market demands (and they believe QE still has some 'juice' and that Fed officials also believe this).

 

Goldman Sachs: Belt and Suspenders

1. The modest improvement in the US growth pace seen earlier in the third quarter has stalled in recent weeks. Our Q3 GDP tracking estimate has come down a touch to 2.3%, and our Current Activity Indicator (CAI) stands at just 1.1% for August with the data in hand so far, down from 1.4% in July. In terms of our own views on the economy, we’re not sure how much of a signal to take away from this slight deterioration, as it could just represent noise in the data. Our best guess is still that growth in the second half of 2012 will be a little better than in the first half. One important reason is that consumer spending has gotten off to a very good start in the third quarter, judging from July personal consumption and August retail and auto sales. But the slowdown in real income growth that is implied by the weakness in payrolls, hours, and wages in August, as well as the ongoing backup in seasonally adjusted gasoline prices, have lowered our confidence in that forecast.

 

2. Fed officials are virtually certain to ease monetary policy at the September 12-3 FOMC meeting. The minutes of the July 31-August 1 FOMC and Chairman Bernanke’s Jackson Hole speech were loud and clear. If the chairman harbors a “grave concern” about the labor market, presumably he intends to do something meaningful about it. The employment and ISM numbers have removed the remaining doubts, and everything now points to a substantial easing step.

 

3. Must this step involve QE? In theory, not necessarily. In a much-discussed study presented at Jackson Hole, Michael Woodford of Columbia University argues that the Fed could (and should) just focus on strengthening its forward guidance for the funds rate, preferably via a nominal GDP level target or alternatively via the 7/3 rule proposed by Chicago Fed President Evans (no hikes until the unemployment rate is below 7%, unless underlying inflation rises above 3%). In contrast, Woodford believes that large-scale asset purchases are neither necessary nor effective in easing financial conditions, at least not beyond the signal they convey about future short-term interest rates.

 

4. In principle, we agree with Woodford that a nominal GDP level target could be powerful, and it might even be sufficient on its own for the Fed to reach its dual mandate in a reasonable time frame. However, Fed officials do not seem close to such an aggressive move. Apart from the difficulty of communicating to the public how a nominal GDP target relates to their dual mandate, their biggest worry is that the roughly 10% gap between actual nominal GDP and the pre-crisis trend might be closed primarily via a period of temporarily higher inflation, and that this might destabilize longer-term inflation expectations. (We agree that this is a risk, although our model simulations suggest that most of the make-up nominal growth would probably occur via make-up real growth rather than above-target inflation.)

 

5. In Woodford’s model, a central bank essentially loses its ability to pull the economy out of a liquidity trap if it refuses to provide aggressive, state-dependent forward guidance. However, we believe Woodford is a little too pessimistic about the ability of large-scale asset purchases/QE to ease financial conditions directly (that is, beyond the signaling effect for future short-term rates). Our own work suggests that QE has a meaningful effect on bond yields in its own right, and that the interaction between QE and forward guidance makes the QE effect even more powerful. Of course, it is entirely plausible that these effects are now smaller than they were at the start of the period of near-zero short rates in 2009 and 2010. But our best guess is that there is still some “juice” in further QE, and it is clear that Fed officials agree. We therefore believe that the Fed will employ a belt-and-suspenders approach and start another QE program alongside an extension of the forward guidance to mid-2015 or beyond.

 

6. The form of any return to QE is less clear. The issue is not so much whether the Fed buys Treasuries or agency mortgage-backed securities; we are pretty sure that any new program would be primarily focused on agency MBS purchases. These should have a somewhat bigger per-dollar effect on private-sector demand and are probably less controversial with the public than Treasury purchases. They can be framed as help for homebuyers to achieve the American Dream, which sounds better than help for the government to run large budget deficits.

 

7. Will a new program be specified as a fixed up-front amount or in more open-ended terms? We are leaning toward an open-ended program because it is both more flexible and more in line with the insight underlying the Woodford study that the policy should be conditional on the state of the economy, not the calendar. If we are right and Fed officials do adopt an open-ended program, the key question is how they will specify the criteria for how long it will last. At one extreme, they could simply say that the program will stop when the committee is more satisfied with the progress of the recovery. At the other extreme, they could write down hard numbers for the unemployment rate and inflation. In practice, we expect a middle ground approach, perhaps via a high-level description in the FOMC statement followed by some more concrete examples in Chairman Bernanke’s ensuing press conference.

 

8. There is a related question around the formulation of the forward funds rate guidance. We agree with Woodford’s criticism of the current formulation, which essentially says that “we expect the economy to remain weak enough to keep the funds rate low.” A better message would be that “we intend to keep the funds rate low in order to generate a stronger economic recovery.” There is a good chance that that the committee will move in this direction, in addition to lengthening the guidance to at least mid-2015.

 

9. How much should we expect from a new round of easing? Our estimates suggest that a program equivalent to QE2 plus an extension of the forward guidance to mid-2015 might boost GDP growth by ¼-½ point over the next year. We would expect an impact toward the top end of the range if the QE program is more open-ended and/or the forward funds rate guidance moves in the direction of a Woodford-style state dependent formulation. But even if the FOMC errs on the side of a more aggressive move, we expect GDP to grow little more than 2% next year, similar to this year’s pace.

 

10. One key reason for this cautious view is that we have become more worried about fiscal policy over the past few months. Even our baseline expectation—an agreement during the lame-duck session to avert most of the income tax increases and automatic spending cuts—implies a hit of 1.2% of GDP in 2013. By far the largest component of this drag is the likely end to the payroll tax cut, which implies an increase in taxes primarily on middle-income earners of $120 billion. And we are far from certain that a compromise will be found in time, as another game of brinksmanship looks all too possible. If this results in the 3.5%-4% of GDP fiscal tightening implied by current legislation—not our forecast but nonetheless a significant risk—even a decisive move to renewed monetary easing would probably not be enough to prevent another recession.

 

Source: Goldman Sachs

 

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Mon, 09/10/2012 - 09:44 | 2778133 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Perception on sale.....cheap!

Mon, 09/10/2012 - 10:06 | 2778196 Curt W
Curt W's picture

Perception on sale.....cheap!

 

NO you don't need to read the fine print! It is just a bunch of disclaimers our lawyers make us put in.

NO REALLY, Dont' read that!

HEY, Where are you going!

Mon, 09/10/2012 - 14:03 | 2779154 AldousHuxley
AldousHuxley's picture

banks sell debt subsidized with low interest rate from government.

EVERYTHING government does is to help you buy more debt from bankers.

 

Mon, 09/10/2012 - 09:44 | 2778134 BaBaBouy
BaBaBouy's picture

Support The BIG Bankers...

Mon, 09/10/2012 - 09:46 | 2778140 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

It's either that......or clean up after the 99%.

 

So where do I sign up?

 

Mon, 09/10/2012 - 09:47 | 2778139 otto skorzeny
otto skorzeny's picture

what use do the Goldman's of the world serve anymore? they are basically a dinosaur that is a middleman for corruption-isn't that what the US govt. is-and usually Uncle Sam doesn't like the competition.

Mon, 09/10/2012 - 09:53 | 2778163 otto skorzeny
otto skorzeny's picture

also- as much as it pains me to say it-Obama is going to get re-elected this fall. count on the repubs to run a cultist banker in this time of hatred of Wall St

Mon, 09/10/2012 - 09:50 | 2778151 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

If we see Bernanke actually announce any type of LSAP or naked monetization type program then ZH may actually get to put up the backwards pointing gun (the fed) followed by the deer in headlights (the market) in the same end of the day market summary....

Mon, 09/10/2012 - 09:53 | 2778164 crusty curmudgeon
crusty curmudgeon's picture

If I didn't know better (er, I mean know really smart people with our best interests at heart are handling everything for us), it almost seems like this can is getting heavier and harder to kick.   

Mon, 09/10/2012 - 09:54 | 2778165 ShrNfr
ShrNfr's picture

Just what the country needs. More currency backed by underwater mortgages. What could go wrong?

Mon, 09/10/2012 - 09:58 | 2778177 Curt W
Curt W's picture

Please explain to me how the Fed buying mortgage backed securities is going to help the homeowner who is under-water and a payment behind.

If the banks can unload some bad securities maybe they will loan some more, so they can create some more mortgage backed securities.

So they foreclose on the homeowner and sell it to the next sucker in line.

Mon, 09/10/2012 - 10:01 | 2778184 otto skorzeny
otto skorzeny's picture

it will help Gross from PIMPCO- he is betting big that this is what Benny The Hebe will do

Mon, 09/10/2012 - 10:07 | 2778194 i-dog
i-dog's picture

The previous sucker, er, underwater homeowner, is a mangled corpse in the water ... Old news. The [loan] shark is looking for a fresh feed....

Mon, 09/10/2012 - 11:13 | 2778461 Whoa Dammit
Whoa Dammit's picture

 The Fed's purchases of MBS is just a continuation of the bailout of Fannie, Freddie, and the TBTF banks. Read up on SunTrust and the fact that it is being forced to sell $2 billion in Coca-Cola stock to shore up its real estate lending losses, and the fact that an "undisclosed" buyer will be purchasing a lot of its MBS loans. Just more Orwellian spin from Goldman. 

http://www.ajc.com/news/business/suntrust-speeds-coke-stock-sale-to-ease-housing-pa/nR5C4/

 

Mon, 09/10/2012 - 10:06 | 2778195 Madcow
Madcow's picture

they're forced to commit to MBS - because they need to slow down the march toward strategic default. 

everyone now knows that asset prices are going back to pre-1980 levels - at lease in real terms.  

better to stretch out that collapse over 30 years than all-at-once.

Mon, 09/10/2012 - 10:08 | 2778198 asteroids
asteroids's picture

QE is money printing that goes onto the national debt. Of course, the bankers will catch a percentage as it moves from one hand to another.

Mon, 09/10/2012 - 10:09 | 2778200 jal
jal's picture

I'm sure that if there is any more QE it will need to go to where it will help the RIGHT  people the most. ( Connected).

Why! I even envisage them changing the meaning of the word "ASSETS" to be able to achieve their goal.

Think of the school boards, municipalities, districts, etc. that cannot roll over their debts and would be very thankful to the FED. if they could dump their debts, get lower interest rates, and get more money to continue their operations and not need to layoff any of their employees.

Mon, 09/10/2012 - 10:10 | 2778203 giddy
giddy's picture

Recently, Obama mentioned a "new program" to refinance (into lower interest rates) mortgages of borrowers who are current on their payments but can't qualify for curent refinance programs.  This means the Fed will be underwriting NINJA MBS.  In effect refinancing billions of loans into new securitizations.  Talk about ruthless execution!

There are lots of middle class homeowners diligently paying their mortgages who cannot take advantage of lower rates.  They shoulda done this years ago instead of giving free homes to strategic defaulters. 

Could assure Obama's re-election. 

Mon, 09/10/2012 - 10:15 | 2778222 larz
larz's picture

zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

Mon, 09/10/2012 - 10:21 | 2778252 zorba THE GREEK
zorba THE GREEK's picture

The fact that this statement is coming out of Goldman may in reality

be a leak from the Fed to test the water before they jump in. If the Fed

disappoints this time, they risk getting too far behind the curve and the

markets, sensing that, could take a nasty downturn.

Mon, 09/10/2012 - 10:24 | 2778268 Cunnial
Cunnial's picture

Mortgage Backed Suicide, more like. Tut tut... Silly market.

Mon, 09/10/2012 - 10:28 | 2778280 adr
adr's picture

Say it with me:

FUCK YOU GOLDMAN SACHS!!!!

Mon, 09/10/2012 - 11:01 | 2778421 Robslob
Robslob's picture

Hmm...wonder if this new round of Fed buying (MBS) has ,as usual, the ooposite effects and drives mortgage rates upward??

Mon, 09/10/2012 - 12:43 | 2778783 knukles
knukles's picture

Horseshithorseshithorseshithorseshithorseshithorseshithorseshithorseshithorseshithorseshithorseshithorseshithorseshithorseshithorseshithorseshithorseshithorseshithorseshithorseshithorseshithorseshithorseshithorseshithorseshithorseshithorseshithorseshithorseshithorseshithorseshithorseshithorseshithorseshit

Mon, 09/10/2012 - 12:47 | 2778801 DavidC
DavidC's picture

"The form of any return to QE is less clear".

That makes me so bloody angry. When did they ever STOP?!

DavidC

Mon, 09/10/2012 - 13:15 | 2778908 Ned Zeppelin
Ned Zeppelin's picture

Gibberish.

Mon, 09/10/2012 - 15:32 | 2779483 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

The FED should give everyone's a 100 000$ 0% interest loan. If you're gonna give free money, at least give it to people.

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