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Goldman On German Q3 GDP: "Last Hurrah Before The Recession"

Tyler Durden's picture





 

This update out of Goldman's Dirk Schumacher is probably not good news for anyone who believes that a high EURUSD, contrary to conventional wisdom, is a good thing for Europe. "German Q3 GDP: a last hurrah before the recession. The statistical office will release third quarter GDP figures tomorrow morning and we expect a quarterly increase of +0.3% after +0.1%; BBG consensus is +0.4%qoq. The risks of this forecast are to the upside and the strong industrial production figure as well as the robust trade figures would argue for a stronger quarterly growth figure. We see, however, a good chance for an upward revision of the disappointingly low Q2 figure (+0.1%qoq), implying a higher starting level for GDP in Q3 and therefore a somewhat smaller increase in Q3. In any case, the latest monthly figures, in particular business sentiment, point to a clear loss of momentum during the quarter and we think that the German economy has slid into recession in Q4. Whether this will be major recession or not will obviously depend on several factors not least the question whether some stabilisation in peripheral sovereign debt markets can be achieved or not. One factor that points to moderate recession is the on-going relative favourable funding conditions for German banks and corporate (see chart)." In other words: a "soft recessionary landing" - those predictions always work out just fine.

 


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Mon, 11/14/2011 - 09:25 | Link to Comment gangland
gangland's picture

letzte Hurra Hündinnen!

Mon, 11/14/2011 - 09:25 | Link to Comment GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

A recession would mean an improvement at this point. Not sure what this man is smoking...

Mon, 11/14/2011 - 09:26 | Link to Comment fonzanoon
fonzanoon's picture

Futures flat. There is no correlation between the economy and the market. I guess it is what it is.

Mon, 11/14/2011 - 09:29 | Link to Comment junkyardjack
junkyardjack's picture

The market is pricing in 2035E performance, its view is long term...

Mon, 11/14/2011 - 09:40 | Link to Comment firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

Futures went up with oil and the the dollar going up....yeah it makes perfect sense. 

Mon, 11/14/2011 - 09:31 | Link to Comment ziggy59
ziggy59's picture

Should be  Alfred E Newmans new slogan..  "What Can Go Wrong?"

Mon, 11/14/2011 - 09:32 | Link to Comment I am Jobe
I am Jobe's picture

Squid is shorting then to loot more.

Mon, 11/14/2011 - 09:40 | Link to Comment monopoly
monopoly's picture

Germany, last man standing.

Gets more interesting every day. An Zero Hedge called the Italian bond sale perfectly. Voodoo economics now beginning classes on how "you too can profit from European debt crisis."

Mon, 11/14/2011 - 09:42 | Link to Comment monopoly
monopoly's picture

Buffoon on CNBC. Cannot believe the caregivers let him out for so long.

Becky looks tired. Not easy having little ones.

Mon, 11/14/2011 - 09:45 | Link to Comment lizzy36
lizzy36's picture

Buy The Fucking DIP.

Aren't failed bond auctions bullish (rhetorical):

#282828; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 33px; font-size: medium;">Hungary:#282828; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 33px; font-size: medium;"> Its bond auction earlier today#282828; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 33px; font-size: medium;"> failed and the forint came close to record lows as investors braced for a downgrade of the country's credit rating.

#282828; margin: 0px;">The state wanted to raise 50bn forints (£136m) from six-week treasury bills but received bids only for 35.7bn forints, none of which was accepted, according to national debt agency AKK.

Mon, 11/14/2011 - 09:49 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Its all good news, right up until the second it all explodes into a billion pieces. ECB/FED emergency purchasing operations bullish, put it on the serfs who cares?

Mon, 11/14/2011 - 09:45 | Link to Comment apberusdisvet
apberusdisvet's picture

What is becoming increasingly obvious is that all of the economic numbers that are bandied about may be more unicorn orgasms than reality.  The management/indoctrination/propaganda of perception is in full force.

Mon, 11/14/2011 - 09:54 | Link to Comment HD
HD's picture

 Don't make it sound cheap and dirty. Those Unicorns are in committed, loving relationships with the central bankers. It's just a "blissful release of monetary stimulus"...all over the face tax payers.

Mon, 11/14/2011 - 09:51 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Any 'good economic news' depends on 0% free money flow and mark to fantasy. So GS says its all good for this minute until reality re-enters the picture, I'd sell the euphoria rip.

Mon, 11/14/2011 - 09:54 | Link to Comment fonzanoon
fonzanoon's picture

This will go on and on. I have spoken to a lot of people. They all agree for different reasons that we are fucked. When I pose the question "well if you think that the country...and hence the dollar is fucked then why don't you own precious metals?" The look they give me is such that they feel I am sort of an alien retard. An alien retard that smells offensive. It is a very specific look that says I don't understand and yet I am offended. They don't make an eloquent deflationary argument.  They think the country is fucked not the currency. So basically by "we" they mean "not me". So far they have been right. Next halloween I am going to dress up as an alien retard (not sure what this will entail) because I want to see if these people ask me why I did not dress up. Ok I'm done.

Mon, 11/14/2011 - 10:06 | Link to Comment s2man
s2man's picture

MarketWatch: Europe losses build after Merkel speaks.

Maybe they shouldn't let her speak so much.

Mon, 11/14/2011 - 10:24 | Link to Comment Snakeeyes
Snakeeyes's picture

No wonder Angela is panicking!

Merkel Calls For “New Europe” – European Sovereign Yields Exhibit Enormous Variation 

http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com

I want to see Angela pull a rabbit out of her hat. Or Kaninchen. But I think that the rabbit is dead and has been eaten already.

 

Mon, 11/14/2011 - 11:07 | Link to Comment slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

 <=== trust us.  even our recessions are goldilocks purrrfect!

 <=== adjusted for inflation, we've been in a ww.recession since May.  doesn't anybody read zH  anymore?

Mon, 11/14/2011 - 13:28 | Link to Comment malek
malek's picture

Deflecting blame: look, they are going into recession over there!
We're so lucky we don't have a recession over here...

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