• Sprott Money
    05/26/2016 - 05:58
    How many “emergency” “secret” meetings do the central planners around the world need to have before the citizens of the respective countries begin to fully understand and take notice that something...

Goldman Goes Short The S&P 500: 1285 Target

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Goldman has gone short:

Trade Update: Recommending short position in the S&P 500

 

We are recommending a short position in the S&P 500 index with a target of 1285 (roughly 5% below current levels) and a stop on a close above 1390. This morning, the Philly Fed print of -16.6, down sequentially and worse than expected, provides further evidence that weakness has extended into June.

 

Although yesterday's FOMC delivered easing as expected, with a dovish statement, positive risk sentiment ahead of the FOMC had already buoyed markets. And we now think, with incremental US monetary policy on hold, the market will need to confront a deteriorating growth picture near term.

 

The risk to our recommendation is that the data soon reverts to the 2-percent growth path our economists expect, that China growth turns, or that European policy-makers' rhetoric buoys risk sentiment further from here, with the upcoming end-of-June summit a focal point on this count.

S&P 1500 imminent?

Or maybe Goldman finally gets what we (and Citi... and Deutsche... and SocGen) have been saying for months: there will be a massive policy response, both monetary and fiscal, but first a major crash is needed to jar everyone out of the hypnosis that just because the S&P is over 1350 all is well...

0
Your rating: None
 

- advertisements -

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Thu, 06/21/2012 - 11:04 | 2547211 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

The kiss of death for us bears. Why me God.....why me?

Damn you Goldman, damn you to hell.

/sarc

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 11:06 | 2547222 Ragnar24
Ragnar24's picture

As with any good con, you have to let the mark win every once in a while...

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 11:18 | 2547291 Pool Shark
Pool Shark's picture

 

 

That's it: I'm going long

 

[easy peasy...]

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 11:18 | 2547302 jcaz
jcaz's picture

1390 stop?   Wow, way to really stick your neck out,  GS-  why not just set your stop at 2390?

Worthless......

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 11:49 | 2547451 The Monkey
The Monkey's picture

I had a feeling the Fed was irritated there was no bears to provide fuel for a rally. Now they will get some muppet bears to steam roll.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 12:46 | 2547664 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

L0L!!!

who coulda node?

  • the rally has failed
  • the squid notices
  • risk0ff, BiCheZ!

 

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 11:53 | 2547478 candyman
candyman's picture

BFD, a bullshit minor league call, woo woo, take out a fucking 10 slow trading days in summer and call it a correction. what a fucking punk. 

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 12:25 | 2547586 fireangelmaverick
fireangelmaverick's picture

"1390 stop?   Wow, way to really stick your neck out,  GS-  why not just set your stop at 2390?"

Actually that is adjusted for a 2:1 reverse split of the USD. You did not hear about it? Latest Krugman Idea. Make 1 USD worth 50 cents. People suddenly think theya re twice as wealthy although the real cost of everything stays the same, so what do they do ....spend.....depression solved.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 13:14 | 2547777 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

1 USD worth 50 cents

 

that trick has been done 4 or 5 times over already...

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 12:45 | 2547658 IndicaTive
IndicaTive's picture

It's a "once in a generation" buying opportunity. Remember?

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 12:49 | 2547682 trebuchet
trebuchet's picture

don t rush. thios is goldman going EXTRA short, with a call like that it is relying on muppets closing out stops at least 20% above that level

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 11:24 | 2547336 Comay Mierda
Comay Mierda's picture

they gotta let the muppets win every once in a while

but their real SPX target is prob much lower than that

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 11:29 | 2547358 tarsubil
tarsubil's picture

Pretty much guarenteed outside their range. They'll screw people one way or another.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 11:29 | 2547357 Biosci
Biosci's picture

This is the strongest evidence yet that QE3 is coming soon.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 11:41 | 2547402 xela2200
xela2200's picture

and they want all the suckers on the wrong side, so they can fleece them.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 11:10 | 2547248 Biggvs
Biggvs's picture

Goldman's recommendation is working so far... Maybe they're pissed that there was no NEW QE and are trying to ensure Ben gets the message loud and clear by next month's meeting.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 12:40 | 2547285 The Big Ching-aso
The Big Ching-aso's picture

 

 

Imagery:   Flush this phuckin' toilet already. 

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 12:18 | 2547569 Bobbyrib
Bobbyrib's picture

I didn't see your post before I post on page 2, but this is my belief as well.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 15:18 | 2548308 ZeroAvatar
ZeroAvatar's picture

That's exactly it.  "You want a crashed market?!!  We'll show you a crashed market!!!"

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 11:17 | 2547287 jekyll island
jekyll island's picture

Buy, buy, buy.   QE's a comin'.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 11:23 | 2547329 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

A very long time until August.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 11:21 | 2547313 scatterbrains
scatterbrains's picture

Or could this mean they want folks to load the boat long at 1285ish with an ultimate target of 1000ish ?

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 13:33 | 2547841 Manthong
Manthong's picture

That scene always puzzled me.

Away from the stupid baboons, hot chick, horse, beautiful uncrowded beach, good tan, no Wall Street anymore..

So what was his problem?

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 11:22 | 2547316 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Just 1285?

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 11:24 | 2547337 Al Huxley
Al Huxley's picture

Always wait until AFTER the Goldman recommendation to establish your position.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 11:38 | 2547388 FL_Conservative
FL_Conservative's picture

Every once in a while, when you lead a (w)hores to water AND dunk their head in it, they will finally figure out that they should drink.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 11:55 | 2547490 ACP
ACP's picture

I just put it thru an online translator. It translates into:

Buy now and sell at 1390.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 12:31 | 2547535 Frozen IcQb
Frozen IcQb's picture

Why worry?

Unless you’re a leverage junkie, stop swimming in the toilet bowl, stack physical and find something fun to do.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 13:16 | 2547784 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

stack physical and find something fun to do.

 

You say that as if stacking physical isn't fun...

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 12:22 | 2547576 vast-dom
vast-dom's picture

It's the OR Ty.

At some point the financial fuckery aligns with a crash. even the double-negative reverse psychology gambit, slung around enough, will become the backfiring inverted hedge of hedges singularity.

 

Even ZH, from time to time, lines up with Goldman, and vice-versa.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 11:05 | 2547220 Racer
Racer's picture

Just about to put the house on a long ES..............

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 11:05 | 2547221 reader2010
reader2010's picture

Jim Rogers says he will buy tons of gold if drops to $1100.

 

http://jimrogers-investments.blogspot.com/2012/06/if-gold-falls-to-1100-i-will-buy-lot-of.html

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 11:08 | 2547230 Al Huxley
Al Huxley's picture

Except there seem to be plenty of willing buyers at 1530 - 1550, so he probably won't get that chance.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 11:13 | 2547271 prodigious_idea
prodigious_idea's picture

Agreed, and am glad to be one of them.  But does anyone here fear eventual higher interest rates and the consequential effect on PMs?  Is the smart long play to buy, and then buy more if rates rise (and PMs drop)?

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 11:22 | 2547323 HelluvaEngineer
HelluvaEngineer's picture

Higher interest rates?  Stop it man, you're killin' me.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 11:26 | 2547350 Al Huxley
Al Huxley's picture

Not a chance.  The system will collapse before rates are allowed to rise.  Can't even PRETEND to support a $1.5 trillion deficit with anything other than 0%.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 11:31 | 2547365 gjp
gjp's picture

Interest rates will never go up again, or at least not until we have an actual free market and the current central planners are hanging from lamp posts.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 12:01 | 2547507 Dr. Richard Head
Dr. Richard Head's picture

One and half years from now marks the end of the target of the Fed's ZIRP policy.  That will be 8 years of robbing savors and fixed income schmucks.  Certainly this cannot go on forever?

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 13:02 | 2547737 koaj
koaj's picture

come see me Jan 2014 and we'll discuss

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 13:38 | 2547877 prodigious_idea
prodigious_idea's picture

I will be surprised if the US or global economies recover in the next two years and ZIRP feels like an unsustainable strategy.  Perhaps the Fed has other tools to prop up the banks but if rates can't be held down . . .  Another poster may have said it best:  food and ammo.  A hard sell to the other half of the marriage although I'm making progress in some areas.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 11:39 | 2547392 Mitzibitzi
Mitzibitzi's picture

Well, you could, but you'd have to go full Krugman on it's ass.... If you printed enough to devalue the dollar sufficiently that paying down a chunk of the principle debt was possible - in order to kill off some of the deficits, but not so much that it caused full on hyperinflation three seconds later, you could control the resulting 'normal' inflation to some degree by raising interest rates. Be damn tricky and probably wouldn't work for very long, though.

Not to mention the emergency meeting of OPEC that would be called right away, if you tried to kill off any substantial amount of debt by devaluation. You'd need half the US military hanging around the Middle East to prevent them raising the price per barrel through the roof. Or outright refusing to accept dollars for oil. Where are all those military assets these days, by the way??

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 11:48 | 2547444 Terminus C
Terminus C's picture

You do realize that in order to 'print' more so that you can "pay" down the principle you have to create that new "money" out of debt right?

So, you clear the old principle with new debt...  Not gonna work out for Mr. Kruggers

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 11:52 | 2547472 Instant Wealth
Instant Wealth's picture

Didn't Printmaster Ben say yesterday, rates could rise in 2015 ... or was it 3015??!

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 11:27 | 2547354 unwashedmass
unwashedmass's picture

problem with that idea is ... when interest rates get out of control, is anyone gonna want to hold the dollar no matter how much it pays? I think that's a real consideration. 

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 11:29 | 2547355 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

This game is locked in to ZIRP. If interest rates rise significantly your best investment will be canned goods, bullets and a hideout far away from Zombieland. But take your PMs with you they'll be worth their weight in gold after things settle a bit.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 11:30 | 2547362 Uber Vandal
Uber Vandal's picture

When did Japan raise its rates the last time?

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/japan/interest-rate

Oh wait, it hasn't had an interest rate above 1/2 of 1% since September, 1995.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 11:43 | 2547409 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

There will never be an interst rate hike. The fed is extending duration on it's balance sheet. If they hike rates they will be technically insolvent. Not that they aren't already, but it will be there for the world to see. Another reason rates won't go up is because the government can't service the debt. We are at the end game, we just need the final catalyst to start the cascade.

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 11:42 | 2547405 reader2010
reader2010's picture

Jim Rogers got it right. 2008 ReRun!

Thu, 06/21/2012 - 11:18 | 2547295 BudFox2012
BudFox2012's picture

I for one am happy about the downward price manipulation of PM's.  It's allowing me to buy more physical than I would have been able to when prices were skyrocketing last spring.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!