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Goldman Goes Short The S&P 500: 1285 Target
Goldman has gone short:
Trade Update: Recommending short position in the S&P 500
We are recommending a short position in the S&P 500 index with a target of 1285 (roughly 5% below current levels) and a stop on a close above 1390. This morning, the Philly Fed print of -16.6, down sequentially and worse than expected, provides further evidence that weakness has extended into June.
Although yesterday's FOMC delivered easing as expected, with a dovish statement, positive risk sentiment ahead of the FOMC had already buoyed markets. And we now think, with incremental US monetary policy on hold, the market will need to confront a deteriorating growth picture near term.
The risk to our recommendation is that the data soon reverts to the 2-percent growth path our economists expect, that China growth turns, or that European policy-makers' rhetoric buoys risk sentiment further from here, with the upcoming end-of-June summit a focal point on this count.
S&P 1500 imminent?
Or maybe Goldman finally gets what we (and Citi... and Deutsche... and SocGen) have been saying for months: there will be a massive policy response, both monetary and fiscal, but first a major crash is needed to jar everyone out of the hypnosis that just because the S&P is over 1350 all is well...
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The kiss of death for us bears. Why me God.....why me?
Damn you Goldman, damn you to hell.
/sarc
As with any good con, you have to let the mark win every once in a while...
That's it: I'm going long
[easy peasy...]
1390 stop? Wow, way to really stick your neck out, GS- why not just set your stop at 2390?
Worthless......
I had a feeling the Fed was irritated there was no bears to provide fuel for a rally. Now they will get some muppet bears to steam roll.
L0L!!!
who coulda node?
BFD, a bullshit minor league call, woo woo, take out a fucking 10 slow trading days in summer and call it a correction. what a fucking punk.
"1390 stop? Wow, way to really stick your neck out, GS- why not just set your stop at 2390?"
Actually that is adjusted for a 2:1 reverse split of the USD. You did not hear about it? Latest Krugman Idea. Make 1 USD worth 50 cents. People suddenly think theya re twice as wealthy although the real cost of everything stays the same, so what do they do ....spend.....depression solved.
1 USD worth 50 cents
that trick has been done 4 or 5 times over already...
It's a "once in a generation" buying opportunity. Remember?
don t rush. thios is goldman going EXTRA short, with a call like that it is relying on muppets closing out stops at least 20% above that level
they gotta let the muppets win every once in a while
but their real SPX target is prob much lower than that
Pretty much guarenteed outside their range. They'll screw people one way or another.
This is the strongest evidence yet that QE3 is coming soon.
and they want all the suckers on the wrong side, so they can fleece them.
Goldman's recommendation is working so far... Maybe they're pissed that there was no NEW QE and are trying to ensure Ben gets the message loud and clear by next month's meeting.
Imagery: Flush this phuckin' toilet already.
I didn't see your post before I post on page 2, but this is my belief as well.
That's exactly it. "You want a crashed market?!! We'll show you a crashed market!!!"
Buy, buy, buy. QE's a comin'.
A very long time until August.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=muEnLlycOn4
Or could this mean they want folks to load the boat long at 1285ish with an ultimate target of 1000ish ?
That scene always puzzled me.
Away from the stupid baboons, hot chick, horse, beautiful uncrowded beach, good tan, no Wall Street anymore..
So what was his problem?
Just 1285?
Always wait until AFTER the Goldman recommendation to establish your position.
Every once in a while, when you lead a (w)hores to water AND dunk their head in it, they will finally figure out that they should drink.
I just put it thru an online translator. It translates into:
Buy now and sell at 1390.
Why worry?
Unless you’re a leverage junkie, stop swimming in the toilet bowl, stack physical and find something fun to do.
stack physical and find something fun to do.
You say that as if stacking physical isn't fun...
It's the OR Ty.
At some point the financial fuckery aligns with a crash. even the double-negative reverse psychology gambit, slung around enough, will become the backfiring inverted hedge of hedges singularity.
Even ZH, from time to time, lines up with Goldman, and vice-versa.
Just about to put the house on a long ES..............
Jim Rogers says he will buy tons of gold if drops to $1100.
http://jimrogers-investments.blogspot.com/2012/06/if-gold-falls-to-1100-i-will-buy-lot-of.html
Except there seem to be plenty of willing buyers at 1530 - 1550, so he probably won't get that chance.
Agreed, and am glad to be one of them. But does anyone here fear eventual higher interest rates and the consequential effect on PMs? Is the smart long play to buy, and then buy more if rates rise (and PMs drop)?
Higher interest rates? Stop it man, you're killin' me.
Not a chance. The system will collapse before rates are allowed to rise. Can't even PRETEND to support a $1.5 trillion deficit with anything other than 0%.
Interest rates will never go up again, or at least not until we have an actual free market and the current central planners are hanging from lamp posts.
One and half years from now marks the end of the target of the Fed's ZIRP policy. That will be 8 years of robbing savors and fixed income schmucks. Certainly this cannot go on forever?
come see me Jan 2014 and we'll discuss
I will be surprised if the US or global economies recover in the next two years and ZIRP feels like an unsustainable strategy. Perhaps the Fed has other tools to prop up the banks but if rates can't be held down . . . Another poster may have said it best: food and ammo. A hard sell to the other half of the marriage although I'm making progress in some areas.
Well, you could, but you'd have to go full Krugman on it's ass.... If you printed enough to devalue the dollar sufficiently that paying down a chunk of the principle debt was possible - in order to kill off some of the deficits, but not so much that it caused full on hyperinflation three seconds later, you could control the resulting 'normal' inflation to some degree by raising interest rates. Be damn tricky and probably wouldn't work for very long, though.
Not to mention the emergency meeting of OPEC that would be called right away, if you tried to kill off any substantial amount of debt by devaluation. You'd need half the US military hanging around the Middle East to prevent them raising the price per barrel through the roof. Or outright refusing to accept dollars for oil. Where are all those military assets these days, by the way??
You do realize that in order to 'print' more so that you can "pay" down the principle you have to create that new "money" out of debt right?
So, you clear the old principle with new debt... Not gonna work out for Mr. Kruggers
Didn't Printmaster Ben say yesterday, rates could rise in 2015 ... or was it 3015??!
problem with that idea is ... when interest rates get out of control, is anyone gonna want to hold the dollar no matter how much it pays? I think that's a real consideration.
This game is locked in to ZIRP. If interest rates rise significantly your best investment will be canned goods, bullets and a hideout far away from Zombieland. But take your PMs with you they'll be worth their weight in gold after things settle a bit.
When did Japan raise its rates the last time?
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/japan/interest-rate
Oh wait, it hasn't had an interest rate above 1/2 of 1% since September, 1995.
There will never be an interst rate hike. The fed is extending duration on it's balance sheet. If they hike rates they will be technically insolvent. Not that they aren't already, but it will be there for the world to see. Another reason rates won't go up is because the government can't service the debt. We are at the end game, we just need the final catalyst to start the cascade.
Jim Rogers got it right. 2008 ReRun!
I for one am happy about the downward price manipulation of PM's. It's allowing me to buy more physical than I would have been able to when prices were skyrocketing last spring.
If gold goes to $1100, I will buy a lot of it too. But right now, thanks to the magic of puts, about 14% of our fund is short the gld, and today is feeling pretty decent.
14% in GLD puts? What is AUM?
That said, you look like a hero today but your investment strategy sounds like one of those things that works until it doesn't. Kind of like Bill Ackman...
reading comprehension is a strong predictor of success in many endeavors.
I posted here the other day when we initiated a 25 bps position in gold puts. the delta of that position is now such that we are effectively short gold for 14% of the fund. that does not mean 14% of the fund is puts. the most we can lose on this trade, from initiation to conclusion, is 0.25% of the fund. I hope that helps.
p.s. I think Whitney Tilson was the manager you were trying to reference. Not aware of Ackman having risk management difficulties.
If gold goes to 1100, I'll be hitting up my bank to give me an unsecured loan for about 6 months of my salary, regardless of the interest rate.
in this situation lots of ZH investors will have long faces from past dips when gold was 1500+
So has gold gone down enough in the face of economic chaos to feel safe shorting it yet?
Ive been saying FOREVER Ill buy 900 Plat when Gold hits 1,000 at SPX 1,000. And Ill buy it with my gains off TZA FAZ SMDD and VXX.
You and me in the same pain with VXX, holy shite batman that f'er is volitile ! Watching that thing equals good profits for the makers of antacids.
@ reader2010,
The NWO will not reliquish power to the people. Gold builds Nations, Silver is the Gentelmans currency. And you can take that to the bank.
Moreover:
ECB and the Fed's have already printed Trillions world wide in the past 3 years and only budged the Gold paper price about 3-5 hundred dollars.
The only way you will find true price discovery is when a Currency collapses or just Fails.
Everyone and his brother firmly think so. Roger that.
This is a good song to play while reading this: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qiMaOmDtaYI
Well it's time to BTFD.
Goldman has stuffed more muppets than Jim Henson.
Yep, with Abbey Cohen as Miss Piggy, Hatzius the Swedish Chef, and Loyd Blankfiend as Beaker.
The risk to our recommendation is that people have seen our previous recommendations.
This is great comfort to me, in the last 2 days I went long IVW, EEM and DES ETFs. Glad to have Goldman confirm that we are in for a rise in the S&P.
Goldman is so obvious that always says the opposite of what it does, that I'm starting to wonder if they are playing with this.
I wonder if they have a dyslexic spokesman?
That would explain why they seem to always do the opposite of what they tell you to do.
pods
Even a broken clock can be correct twice a day
Unless, it is a digital clock
It's 88:88 somewhere.
Jim Rogers is full of it.
Always seems like he has an endless supply of cash to either buy more gold or short more bonds or buy more agriculture futures.
Heh, by now, he must be flat broke.
No, you see, YOU are the robot, I am teaching YOU not the other way around.
SPAM
He says his chinese shares are for his two girls. LMAO.
I love his saracastic tone that makes anyone he talks to feel like an idiot. Great guy. Always lets everyone know what a "terrible trader" he is.
his point is that he doesn't trade but invests for the long term. if his investments go down for a year or two its ok as long as he sells it the third year in the green.
lol...the guy is rich....he really does have tons of cash.....
Broke?
Maybe you should learn yourself up on the Quantum fund.
Goon, if he has gold then he has money, how can you be broke? Honestly you contradict yourself in one sentance. Unreal!
In all seriousness, would a pullback in the S&P bolster the Fed intervention decision, leading to renewed risk-on, thus investors should consider going long across the bottom with an exit later when the sugar high wears off?
For once, I think GS may be right. The only thing I see boosting the market is LTRO3 (given that the ECB is going to attempt to accept anything as collateral as the EU is now moving to completely ignore rating agencies).
Just as it was getting nice...
I think they are yanking our chains...
So, risk on? At least short term.
I expect a 2-3% selloff thru 6/27 then a massive end of quarter ramp job so traders can enjoy the Hamptons in july. those beach houses don't rent themselves.
It should read, "We're mad that the Fed didn't print money like Jan Hatzius told them to. Now we'll show them. Now, we'll show all of you muppets not to mess with us! Ah hahaha, A hahahahahah...."
I still don't understand who saw the Philly fed numbers and thought that is a great time to buy???
GODDAMMIT!!! Does this mean I have to sell all my shorts???
FUCK!!!!
Please just this once let Goldman be right!!! Hopefully where they ade wrong is the 1,285 target. Might end up being 1,185.
Btw WTF is with a stop at 1390? If the mkt goes up to 1390 wouldnt you want to double up your short?
W.W.A.D - What would Abbey do?
What are they celebrating? RT @MatinaStevis Champagne for the EZ finance ministers. For real @gksteinhauserwitnessed yfrog.com/ob61xnbj
just 01000010010101000100011001000100
If the market ramped up on the hope of possible QE3 then why isn't it back down to the pre ramp level of 1315?
Give it time.
And just like that I'm a bull!
Yep, they know QE's coming...
You might be right. Some might think they usually only make these announcements as a favor to pension and insurance fund managers to give them cover while Goldman rapes their assets (in exhange for membership in the GS club) but.. but.. Goldman said sell.. how could the managers know the fed was about to print? oops sorry pensioners no moe money for you bitchezz, Goldman tricked us.. btw I'm retiring and just by luck landed a job at Goldman.. seeya!
Confirmation of the impending corzining -cnbc jsut flashed this news. Guess the squid wants to buy, be a nice muppet and give your stuff to goldman.
Dont forget to hedge your hedges children.
I still think you do not short until:
1. The pop from the SCourt HC decision and/or
2. After 4 July week: Too easy to manip the market up that week as a Wednesday July 4 ensures no one will be working on WS except the bots
7/9 week looks like it could be ugly, if #1 is past, and earnings (which looks to be shi-tay) come rolling in. Buck Fernankie would love a market slide right til the day Jack-ass-son Hole starts.
Mop it up Muppets!!
FGS
God DMANIT!! WTF GOLDMAN?!
while you guys are all whinning about your shorts, the s&p is plummeting....get a grip, even a liar sometimes tells the truth....
Loading the boat with TNA, SSO, UCO, SPY, and FB
Whomever goes short the market with WTI below 80 and DXY above 80 deserves to get blow-torched for being stupid.
but wti goes down and dxy goes up for exactly the reason the s&p is selling off, no?
If you're saying that the reason is to slaughter pigs and sheer sheep, then yes. If you're saying due to economic fundamentals, no.
remember also....just because you guys have figured out goldman is often wrong, doesn't mean all the other muppets with money know that....
so do we go long bullshit and short truth or visa versa ,i'm confused!
ALL IN LONG! This is an ultimate wake up call :-)
You don't think Goldman knows the SCourt decision on HC and when it will be announced? C'mon. They are positioning for that pop, which they will short the hell out of as the Muppets will take it as the lift off to 1500.
every time Goldman's name is mentioned this film intro should be unspooled...
YouTube - Goldman Sachs Squid Skull Hood Ornament - Arriving for the Kill
...
perhaps I should change the track music to something like Roll Up to the Bumper?
GS is the greatest pick pocket artist of all time, stay in the equity market at your own risk.
Faber predicted Dow will bounce between 1,200 and 1,400 for the entire 2012. he also predicted gold would end up much higher then the last high of $1,963 and ounce.
Who knows?
Marc Faber is in Show Biz.
time to short the dollar and euro.
http://covert.ias3.com/expose/
Existing house sales plunge in May
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/existing-home-sales-fall-1-140645179.html
Well there is a inverted head and shoulders that would take the SP500 to around 1390. stop 1325.
Ben has failed them and now he must pay (watching his beautiful bubble slowly deflate)..
On this one GS is right, it must go down but i dont know by how much
Translation: "we didn't get QE3 because the market was too high, mostly because we front ran it gambling taxpayers' money."
They pushed it up as high as it could go, cleared all their longs, got their shorts in position.....AND THEN....announced to the world the SP is going to fall.
Actually my gambling system did give a 20 S&P points margin diverging from Goldman's call, but hey i'm only another underwater short talking my book.
Might get there today, by the look of things...
well that is stupid trading advice, if you short, stop out on this weeks high, or wait until it breaks the weekly low trend line. I cover all teh bases with my trades with aautomatic stops.
.also since the crooks run the show, you have to establish a trendline. we could ramp up from this level breaching yesterdays low and become pos for the day but still maintaining down channel. they like to tamp up after beaking the prior days alow all too oftn
ok but 1285 in what 2 or 3 hours?
That pretty much puts a cork in the bloodletting. S&P 2000 here we come. I don't even like stocks.
Goldman must be willing to buy stocks and needs you to sell.
The economist Hugh Johnson uses data exclusively from the Philly Fed for his unemployment numbers - today's [Philly Fed] numbers should be a harbinger for a low employment number... http://www.blogs./reuters.com/macroscope/tags/economic-forecast/ June 1,2012 Oops ___ google search box
jmo
So goldman is actually long... right?
Shorts need to cover immediately I feel a geyser approaching
Uh oh. I sold in May. Hopefully the upcoming stock rally will be short and die again in the Fall, like Charles Nenner said.
200 DMA right now at 1294.34
No, S&P 1500 is not imminent. This is entirely consistent with their previous press releases for QE prior to the FOMC. They were selling into the rally and now see an opportunity to have their positions hit exit targets early by stoking fear on the downside. This should calm bear fears because we are now on the same side of the trade as GS.
Their price targets are entirely meaningless. They will adjust these accordingly as conditions develop.
These GS assholes are so sure 'wrong', read muppet their 'customers', as i go all in long in 5 minutes. Counting.
More Equity Rally Expected.
Any traders predicting a multi month equity rally apart from me ?
As of today I am.
Last week was the turning point.
Further equity upside and USDX weakness expected this year according to my analysis.
However the SPX big picture remains very bearish and unfortunately this will not change.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-12-24/market-analysis