Goldman Goes Short The S&P 500: 1285 Target

Tyler Durden's picture

Goldman has gone short:

Trade Update: Recommending short position in the S&P 500

 

We are recommending a short position in the S&P 500 index with a target of 1285 (roughly 5% below current levels) and a stop on a close above 1390. This morning, the Philly Fed print of -16.6, down sequentially and worse than expected, provides further evidence that weakness has extended into June.

 

Although yesterday's FOMC delivered easing as expected, with a dovish statement, positive risk sentiment ahead of the FOMC had already buoyed markets. And we now think, with incremental US monetary policy on hold, the market will need to confront a deteriorating growth picture near term.

 

The risk to our recommendation is that the data soon reverts to the 2-percent growth path our economists expect, that China growth turns, or that European policy-makers' rhetoric buoys risk sentiment further from here, with the upcoming end-of-June summit a focal point on this count.

S&P 1500 imminent?

Or maybe Goldman finally gets what we (and Citi... and Deutsche... and SocGen) have been saying for months: there will be a massive policy response, both monetary and fiscal, but first a major crash is needed to jar everyone out of the hypnosis that just because the S&P is over 1350 all is well...

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Cognitive Dissonance's picture

The kiss of death for us bears. Why me God.....why me?

Damn you Goldman, damn you to hell.

/sarc

Ragnar24's picture

As with any good con, you have to let the mark win every once in a while...

Pool Shark's picture

 

 

That's it: I'm going long

 

[easy peasy...]

jcaz's picture

1390 stop?   Wow, way to really stick your neck out,  GS-  why not just set your stop at 2390?

Worthless......

The Monkey's picture

I had a feeling the Fed was irritated there was no bears to provide fuel for a rally. Now they will get some muppet bears to steam roll.

slewie the pi-rat's picture

L0L!!!

who coulda node?

  • the rally has failed
  • the squid notices
  • risk0ff, BiCheZ!

 

candyman's picture

BFD, a bullshit minor league call, woo woo, take out a fucking 10 slow trading days in summer and call it a correction. what a fucking punk. 

fireangelmaverick's picture

"1390 stop?   Wow, way to really stick your neck out,  GS-  why not just set your stop at 2390?"

Actually that is adjusted for a 2:1 reverse split of the USD. You did not hear about it? Latest Krugman Idea. Make 1 USD worth 50 cents. People suddenly think theya re twice as wealthy although the real cost of everything stays the same, so what do they do ....spend.....depression solved.

mayhem_korner's picture

1 USD worth 50 cents

 

that trick has been done 4 or 5 times over already...

IndicaTive's picture

It's a "once in a generation" buying opportunity. Remember?

trebuchet's picture

don t rush. thios is goldman going EXTRA short, with a call like that it is relying on muppets closing out stops at least 20% above that level

Comay Mierda's picture

they gotta let the muppets win every once in a while

but their real SPX target is prob much lower than that

tarsubil's picture

Pretty much guarenteed outside their range. They'll screw people one way or another.

Biosci's picture

This is the strongest evidence yet that QE3 is coming soon.

xela2200's picture

and they want all the suckers on the wrong side, so they can fleece them.

Biggvs's picture

Goldman's recommendation is working so far... Maybe they're pissed that there was no NEW QE and are trying to ensure Ben gets the message loud and clear by next month's meeting.

The Big Ching-aso's picture

 

 

Imagery:   Flush this phuckin' toilet already. 

Bobbyrib's picture

I didn't see your post before I post on page 2, but this is my belief as well.

ZeroAvatar's picture

That's exactly it.  "You want a crashed market?!!  We'll show you a crashed market!!!"

DeadFred's picture

A very long time until August.

scatterbrains's picture

Or could this mean they want folks to load the boat long at 1285ish with an ultimate target of 1000ish ?

Manthong's picture

That scene always puzzled me.

Away from the stupid baboons, hot chick, horse, beautiful uncrowded beach, good tan, no Wall Street anymore..

So what was his problem?

Al Huxley's picture

Always wait until AFTER the Goldman recommendation to establish your position.

FL_Conservative's picture

Every once in a while, when you lead a (w)hores to water AND dunk their head in it, they will finally figure out that they should drink.

ACP's picture

I just put it thru an online translator. It translates into:

Buy now and sell at 1390.

Frozen IcQb's picture

Why worry?

Unless you’re a leverage junkie, stop swimming in the toilet bowl, stack physical and find something fun to do.

mayhem_korner's picture

stack physical and find something fun to do.

 

You say that as if stacking physical isn't fun...

vast-dom's picture

It's the OR Ty.

At some point the financial fuckery aligns with a crash. even the double-negative reverse psychology gambit, slung around enough, will become the backfiring inverted hedge of hedges singularity.

 

Even ZH, from time to time, lines up with Goldman, and vice-versa.

Racer's picture

Just about to put the house on a long ES..............

Al Huxley's picture

Except there seem to be plenty of willing buyers at 1530 - 1550, so he probably won't get that chance.

prodigious_idea's picture

Agreed, and am glad to be one of them.  But does anyone here fear eventual higher interest rates and the consequential effect on PMs?  Is the smart long play to buy, and then buy more if rates rise (and PMs drop)?

HelluvaEngineer's picture

Higher interest rates?  Stop it man, you're killin' me.

Al Huxley's picture

Not a chance.  The system will collapse before rates are allowed to rise.  Can't even PRETEND to support a $1.5 trillion deficit with anything other than 0%.

gjp's picture

Interest rates will never go up again, or at least not until we have an actual free market and the current central planners are hanging from lamp posts.

Dr. Richard Head's picture

One and half years from now marks the end of the target of the Fed's ZIRP policy.  That will be 8 years of robbing savors and fixed income schmucks.  Certainly this cannot go on forever?

koaj's picture

come see me Jan 2014 and we'll discuss

prodigious_idea's picture

I will be surprised if the US or global economies recover in the next two years and ZIRP feels like an unsustainable strategy.  Perhaps the Fed has other tools to prop up the banks but if rates can't be held down . . .  Another poster may have said it best:  food and ammo.  A hard sell to the other half of the marriage although I'm making progress in some areas.

Mitzibitzi's picture

Well, you could, but you'd have to go full Krugman on it's ass.... If you printed enough to devalue the dollar sufficiently that paying down a chunk of the principle debt was possible - in order to kill off some of the deficits, but not so much that it caused full on hyperinflation three seconds later, you could control the resulting 'normal' inflation to some degree by raising interest rates. Be damn tricky and probably wouldn't work for very long, though.

Not to mention the emergency meeting of OPEC that would be called right away, if you tried to kill off any substantial amount of debt by devaluation. You'd need half the US military hanging around the Middle East to prevent them raising the price per barrel through the roof. Or outright refusing to accept dollars for oil. Where are all those military assets these days, by the way??

Terminus C's picture

You do realize that in order to 'print' more so that you can "pay" down the principle you have to create that new "money" out of debt right?

So, you clear the old principle with new debt...  Not gonna work out for Mr. Kruggers

Instant Wealth's picture

Didn't Printmaster Ben say yesterday, rates could rise in 2015 ... or was it 3015??!

unwashedmass's picture

problem with that idea is ... when interest rates get out of control, is anyone gonna want to hold the dollar no matter how much it pays? I think that's a real consideration. 

DeadFred's picture

This game is locked in to ZIRP. If interest rates rise significantly your best investment will be canned goods, bullets and a hideout far away from Zombieland. But take your PMs with you they'll be worth their weight in gold after things settle a bit.

Uber Vandal's picture

When did Japan raise its rates the last time?

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/japan/interest-rate

Oh wait, it hasn't had an interest rate above 1/2 of 1% since September, 1995.

Dr. Engali's picture

There will never be an interst rate hike. The fed is extending duration on it's balance sheet. If they hike rates they will be technically insolvent. Not that they aren't already, but it will be there for the world to see. Another reason rates won't go up is because the government can't service the debt. We are at the end game, we just need the final catalyst to start the cascade.

reader2010's picture

Jim Rogers got it right. 2008 ReRun!

BudFox2012's picture

I for one am happy about the downward price manipulation of PM's.  It's allowing me to buy more physical than I would have been able to when prices were skyrocketing last spring.