Goldman Head Gold Trader Speculates About "Authority" Intervention In Gold, Sees Precious Metal Pushing Higher
From Goldman's head gold trader Zak Dhabalia (i.e., someone that can not be found on 360) who says what only fringe blogosphere dares to speculate: namely that central banks and/or metals excahnges (CME/LBMA) openly intervene at key inflection point to slam the price of gold down. More importantly, according to Zak, now that the latest "authority" intervention has been priced in, it is up, up and away for the yellow metal yet again.
From Goldman Sachs
Coming back from vacation probably wasn’t such a good idea after all….The gold market is clearly moving into a new dynamic from an orderly market rally to a disorderly market rally. The strong feature of the last 3 years was a relatively steady up move accompanied by declining option vols. This gave encouragement to investors to accumulate gold without a fear of dramatic price risk and from a risk adjusted asset allocation perspective the relative merits of gold were improving against other asset classes particularly for those that view and compare gold against currencies. However since the beginning of August the price spike has been accompanied by higher vols which have accelerated again this week as 1 month reached mid 30s. There has been some rather disturbing price action in the last 48 hrs creating extremely challenging trading conditions.
After rallying nearly 100 usd last week from 1795 to 1895 with demand coming from the official sector and some leveraged players rebuilding length following the severe prior correction we traded to new all time highs of 1922 on Tuesday shortly before the Swiss Franc intervention. The immediate aftermath was in complete contradiction to prior recent episodes of intervention and what anyone would have expected. Instead of spurring a further gold price rally on the basis that it was one of the few remaining safe haven “currencies” we saw a 50 usd collapse in minutes. The source of this flow seems hard to pin down with some speculating over whether “authorities” were concerned about the signals of an accelerating gold price and its impact on other fragile markets. Soon after, much of the losses were recovered but the psychological damage had been done and there followed a series of liquidations from within the leverage space with gold closing down 50 usd on the day. This was then exacerbated by a near 60 usd flash crash within 2 minutes during the Asian session.
We have since traded down to 1795 yesterday with talk of technical damage (double tops etc) but recover to 1840 this morning. Despite the fact that discretionary leverage positions are significantly lighter there is still heaviness of CTA type positions that can be reduced. However official sector activity, and PWM is already using this latest dip to re-accumulate and it may be the case the market is already close to clean positions at ever higher prices.
From a technical perspective minor support comes in at 1795 with more significant support at 1705. Above, the double top area of 1920 takes on much more significance. Despite the much higher vols we are happy to own short dated 1-2 mth high strikes more than flat price positions in the current environment.
Good luck
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Does Zak Dhabalia have a criminal lawyer on retainer too, or is it just Lloyd?
end game bitchez
Because of the gold ebullion at ZH, some seem to be missing that the dollar may be taking off here as the new safe haven. This will unwind all the risk on dollar carry trades around the world accumulated since Helicopter Ben started his ill-fated bubble policy in 2009. Gold will likely be one of the victims, and the collapse in asset prices could come very quickly. JMHO. At the least, hedge...
You're saying that a collapse of the Euro will bring new found faith in the biggest debtor nation's fiat currency? I disagree. I think this will be the straw that breaks the camels back.
After all, euro or no euro, the US dollar's days are numbered.
Hedge accordingly. Making paper gains that are actually a net loss isn't exactly hedging... just sayin'
seems to me like GS's ploy to bring down JPM.
they are about to eat each other!!!
Ah yeah. I guess I get what he's saying in that regard.
I just think the symmetry between situations like dollar crashing, gold rising, etc are gone.
You notice the dollar going up/down makes no difference on gold now, and for that matter, neither does news.
I can't wait til the PAGE opens. Get your gold before that happens. That shit's going to make people shit their pants when it opens.
Kind of reminds me of: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/guest-post-should-i-buy-gold-its-all-time-...
As Mish pointed out recently the dollar and gold are now moving inversely MOST sessions.
As far as what happened with the gold take down recently (in conjunction with Swissy peg announcement) see what Dan Noricini has to say... He didn't pull any punches.
"Central Banks Waging War On Gold At This Hour"
http://traderdannorcini.blogspot.com/2011/09/central-banks-waging-war-on-gold-at.html
I think it was Poopoo that brought up the fact that the USD is the world's reserve curency. Also the USD controlls the worlds oil market with the worlds most powerful military to back it...Just sayin
ABSOTIVELY
No difference... Print ad Infinitum .......The difference between the $ and the Euro is the duration of the recognition. It's just a trade and I guess some dead bodies somewhere in real time
The dollar is "taking off" only as measured against a basket other inflated fiat currencies. It's certainly not "taking off" like gold has been.
Is Zak related in any way to Bob Dobolina?
+1
LMAO.
+1
LMAO
question is, does he cover now and lose 90% of yesterday's unrealized profit, or does he add to his short position on this bounce..?
<golf clap>
I think it's Joe Davola
crazyyyy joe davola.. he's kybosh'd before.. and he'll kybosh again..
LMAO +1
That's what everyone else is doing so I'll toe the line.
....maybe they're the same person.
Quit monkyeeing around.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2uVppp0fsJU
bumpin
I undersand Goldman takes out Keyman Insurance on ther employees. I think Zak has the potential to be a proft center for GS.
The first rule of Goldclub is - you do not talk about Goldclub.
Get it before it gets too hot!
Bitchez!
Heck, keep it low, I need to accumulate!
Ive traded all my Gold in for NFLX. I do what Gartman does.
dude,
are you retarded? you need to diversify!
i suggest you sell some, but not all, shares of NFLX and pick up some Hulu and spam. and some iPads. you're gonna need iPads!
Get iPads in different colors?
OT (well sort of always the topic) -
http://grupo.org/stats/
I find myself strongly attracted to you.
That's normal.
That's funny!
Is that the most interesting man in the world?
Interesting to himself... I gotta admit that getting Romans to drop soccer in favor of baseball is a feat... Or is that feat?
No! You're clearly poles apart.
< Cash_is_Trash >
WHAT is your def of LOW?.
It's already picked up $80.00 USD from yesterday...................$1870.00, is not what I call BTD.
Add prems, and your at $1900.00............................
Where do you buy gold from? I"m looking at $1920/oz for gold right now...
Currently my local coin shop (in a big city) charges about $90 over spot. The +/- 5% has been pretty consistent for a long time. And that is for 1 oz Gold Eagles, the form of gold I prefer.
Try Gainsville Coin, Blanchard's, etc... Shop around for best price... and ask about insurance and delivery charges.
ebay
Heck, keep it low, I need to accumulate!
I'm buying miners on the dips. Fun stuff! The new purchases are up 9% in two weeks. And I'm not even a trader.
A little cannibalism never hurt noone.
I thought that Zac guy was a popular musician/troubador. Oh wait...that's Zac Karabell (sp?) a gold "analyst." what the hell is that?
"This one here is gold. That one... tungsten, I'm afraid."
"Really! Fort Knox, you say? How about that!"
A Man for All Seasons?
Who darest pull thy curtain back...?
Job opening!
Here we FUCKING go.
More fun ahead
OMG! Someone is speaking truth about Gold interventions? OMG!
Funny how they're on the truth wagon now that there are no consequences?
The only thing missing is the "TA DA!"
+ $1865 Cog Dis
Nice to see even some of the TBTF / some of TPTB understand that SJGR!
BTFD!
BTFS!
Just buy it (physical)!
The Turd is not Zac Dhabalia and Zac Dhabalia is not The Turd. I can see, however, where you might think otherwise.
Of course you're not. No-one could ever actually LIKE anyone who works at Goldman.
Turd,
Nice to see you over here.
I read your blog like it was religion..!!!!!
Doubt that Zac wears a big floppy yellow hat, which discounts a confusion of identity, unless of course he won one of your contests...
Hey Turd, that hat of yours - it's funny.
Its funny, because it is a big hat.
Lets try the rapists for QE666
i'll take the penis mightier for $200, trebek
@ The Turd,
Congratulations on your fantastic website.
Turd a Goldmanite, LOL...
What a crazed doomer.
OT: @covered bonds
Here is the regulatory consultation for Covered Bonds, a reprise of Asset Backed Commercial Paper in Canadian financial markets. Note the source of this information is the Canadian government, since this has likely passed into law. Reading through this document reminds one very strongly of credit derivatives, where the make-up of the covered bond can be changed to suit the asset mix:
http://www.fin.gc.ca/activty/consult/cb-os-eng.asp
Now this headline I came across yesterday, regarding covered bonds sales by a prominent Canadian bank in U.S. dollar terms to U.S. clients. Now, should the Canadian dollar advance significantly against the U.S. dollar, this would be very much like the source of troubles in the Swiss banking sector. Or are they selling "crap?"
http://ca.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idCATRE78679X20110907
oh crap.. goldman is bullish on gold.
I was thinking about adding more gold but now I might need to sell what I got...
There are clouds on the horizon for gold, and all of you who read this know I am right, and here is my evidence.
Yesterday, the talking schmucks on CNBC mentioned gold every hour and even put a little gold tracker in the lower corner of the screen.
And, the dumbest dorkwads on the business channells all said they were in "nothin' but cash and gold."
Thus, I rest my case.
Gold is doomed.
!!!!! Boy, I hope gold is doomed !!!!!
Why? Because I prefer to be paid in gold, silver or some other real good, but somehow I managed to end up with a little more fiat to get rid of as soon as possible. So when they "doom gold", I can sweep in and convert every last penny of fiat into gold at bargain prices.
All of us with half a brain or more know one thing for sure. If they somehow manage to doom gold, it won't last more than 2 or 3 months TOPs. Then into outer space the price of gold will go.
You fiat lovers just don't get it. You CANNOT convert us to fiat, fake, fraud, fiction, fantasy, fractional-reserve debt-toilet-paper insanity. That will never happen. What WILL happen at some opportune moments is... we'll convert gold into other real, physical, productive/enjoyable goods, and live the good life while all you fiat-lovers suffer and die off. Good riddins, sucker.
...did they mention silver or am I still safe?
God.
If you let the mainstream media's misrepresentation of reality (aka. GOLDS A BUBBLE! as they've said the past... 13x we set a record price...) sway your holdings in tangible assets you deserve to be fucked out of all of your savings.
Nariapoid... Why are you wasting time watching the bubble heads on msm?
The gold is going to central banks and populations in SE Asia, India, the Mid East and a bit to Europe and lots to Russia (mining their own)...
Americans don't buy gold... except those that read ZH and those with tons of fiat that understand it's no better than monopoly money.
Ignore goldman. They are complete snakes. They always take both sides of every argument - to different groups - in order to fleece and manipulate everyone. You must never do what goldman says, and you must never do the opposite of what they say, because everything they say is boobytrapped with deadly shrapnel and deadly disease.
Think for yourself. That's your only hope.
thnking for yourself only makes yourself alone,
There ain't no hope in that.
I'm sure guys in prison try to hedge from getting fucked in the ass.
Good luck with all of that, gold or otherwise.
Ruffcut,<
I'm sure guys in prison try to hedge from getting fucked in the ass.
Well, 99% of them deserve to be there, so I FEEL for them.
WE been getting it up the arss, ands we are not IN prison, just prisoners.
Let me understand this.
If you think, your ideas suck.
If someone else thinks, their ideas are brilliant.
I guess you should know... about your ideas.
My ideas are valid, realistic, and work.
I'm just an amateur here so correct me if I'm wrong. If I had a large position in gold and wanted to sell, I would do it during active trading where I could unload the whole thing, progressively, without significantly depressing the price. Right? I mean, isn't this obvious? I would not try to sell during the quietest period of the 24-hour trading day when buying is generally slow and my initial actions would pull the price down.
Seems to me, two massive hits to the gold price, both in the wee hours (US time), both with a similar profile, can ONLY be an attempt to depress the price for reasons having nothing to do with someone who simply wants to, or has to, sell what he is holding.
Therefore we are playing in a rigged market. I mean, isn't THIS obvious? And someone like me, with maybe $100,000 to play with, is nothing more than plankton for the sharks to eat. And regarding the "shock! horror! outrage!" expressed by ZH when someone interfered with their predictions about the inevitability of further gold gains after the Swiss franc was pegged to the Euro . . . wasn't this a bit . . . naive?
Patience of an indian, grashopper. Patience of an indian.
Well, you are partially right. You see the real advantage to being plankton is strength in numbers. They cannot eat it all and if they tried it would kill them. Central banks can intervene, but if there are a million people in India and more in China buying on the weakness caused by the intervention, Gold (and Silver) will act just like a cork that is held beneath the surface of the water, they cannot keep it down. Gold is just a metal, it cannot lie like politicians or bankers. Eventually the bankers will lose what control they have over the PM markets and you will see it dissociate from fiat. So go ahead and take the blue pill if you want to be a pussy, otherwise shut up and have courage in your actions.
JI:
Can I fight you!!!
Sure. I just want to break something that is beautiful.
I don't even know how to respond to such a 'symmetrical angel' type statement!!!!
Watching "Fight Club" should at least be a prerequisite for posting here. Another quote..... Zing over your head. But then there are alot of ins, a lot of outs and a lot of what have yous going on with gold, but it really does tie the world together.
Your film, too -- +1 for the rug reference.
Fuckin' A Jekyll.
Spot on sir, spot on.
... it's going to happen a lot sooner than most people are anticipating I think. LBMA and CME will be fucked once PAGE opens. Fact.
Subtlety is not the government's strong suit.
+1 . You're reading it from the price angle of market movement which is a rare find around here. Keep in mind that the so called paper markets are still being driven by the big boys in the game. While they aren't able to reverse trends, once the market becomes one directional a massive dump (paper) is a very likely scenario. These market makers make their coin in the stops placed / margin calls from the rest of the unsuspecting crowd. Everyone being 98% bullish on gold, CHF safe haven gone, EUR nose diving etc. makes for a perfect stop-hunt setup. Hate it or love it, its part of their game.
Charles Platt... Read this link to Dan Noricini... He has charts at link that leave little doubt about the rigging of the recent take down in gold.
http://traderdannorcini.blogspot.com/2011/09/central-banks-waging-war-on-gold-at.html
Mr. Turd..are you sure you are not suffering from multiple personality disorder? muwahahahah
looking forward to your next visit on the webbotforum.
In this space, you HAVE to have multiple personalities. Hell, look at Tyler.
some say that Tyler is not even he but she!
I heard it was Brad Pitt. I guess that is the same thing, never mind.
TD is not a she
"We're a generation of men raised by women. I'm wondering if another woman is really the answer we need."
The word itself makes some men uncomfortable. Vagina.
dooud!!!!!!!!!!!!
You mean COITUS.....
please! what would that man called Oprah think?
it's va-jay-jay, Dooud! L0L!!!