Goldman Head Gold Trader Speculates About "Authority" Intervention In Gold, Sees Precious Metal Pushing Higher

Tyler Durden's picture

From Goldman's head gold trader Zak Dhabalia (i.e., someone that can not be found on 360) who says what only fringe blogosphere dares to speculate: namely that central banks and/or metals excahnges (CME/LBMA) openly intervene at key inflection point to slam the price of gold down. More importantly, according to Zak, now that the latest "authority" intervention has been priced in, it is up, up and away for the yellow metal yet again.

From Goldman Sachs

Coming back from vacation probably wasn’t such a good idea after all….The gold market is clearly moving into a new dynamic from an orderly market rally to a disorderly market rally. The strong feature of the last 3 years was a relatively steady up move accompanied by declining option vols. This gave encouragement to investors to accumulate gold without a fear of dramatic price risk and from a risk adjusted asset allocation perspective the relative merits of gold were improving against other asset classes particularly for those that view and compare gold against currencies. However since the beginning of August the price spike has been accompanied by higher vols which have accelerated again this week as 1 month reached mid 30s. There has been some rather disturbing price action in the last 48 hrs creating extremely challenging trading conditions.
After rallying nearly 100 usd  last week from 1795 to 1895 with demand coming from the official sector and some leveraged players rebuilding length following the severe prior correction we traded to new all time highs of 1922 on Tuesday shortly before the Swiss Franc intervention. The immediate aftermath was in complete contradiction to prior recent episodes of intervention and what anyone would have expected. Instead of spurring a further gold price rally on the basis that it was one of the few remaining safe haven “currencies” we saw a 50 usd collapse in minutes. The source of this flow seems hard to pin down with some speculating over whether  “authorities” were concerned about the signals of an accelerating gold price and its impact on other fragile markets. Soon after, much of the losses were recovered but the psychological damage had been done and there followed a series of liquidations from within the leverage space with gold closing down 50 usd on the day. This was then exacerbated by a near 60 usd flash crash within 2 minutes during the Asian session.
We have since traded down to 1795 yesterday with talk of technical damage (double tops etc) but recover to 1840 this morning. Despite the fact that discretionary leverage positions are significantly lighter there is still heaviness of CTA type positions that can be reduced. However official sector activity, and PWM is already using this latest dip to re-accumulate and it may be the case the market is already close to clean positions at ever higher prices.
From a technical perspective minor support comes in at 1795 with more significant support at 1705. Above, the double top area of 1920 takes on much more significance. Despite the much higher vols we are happy to own short dated 1-2 mth high strikes more than flat price positions in the current environment.
Good luck

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Careless Whisper's picture

Does Zak Dhabalia have a criminal lawyer on retainer too, or is it just Lloyd?



Spirit Of Truth's picture

Because of the gold ebullion at ZH, some seem to be missing that the dollar may be taking off here as the new safe haven.  This will unwind all the risk on dollar carry trades around the world accumulated since Helicopter Ben started his ill-fated bubble policy in 2009.  Gold will likely be one of the victims, and the collapse in asset prices could come very quickly. JMHO.  At the least, hedge...

tekhneek's picture

You're saying that a collapse of the Euro will bring new found faith in the biggest debtor nation's fiat currency? I disagree. I think this will be the straw that breaks the camels back.

After all, euro or no euro, the US dollar's days are numbered.

Hedge accordingly. Making paper gains that are actually a net loss isn't exactly hedging... just sayin'

Troll Magnet's picture

seems to me like GS's ploy to bring down JPM.
they are about to eat each other!!!

tekhneek's picture

Ah yeah. I guess I get what he's saying in that regard.

I just think the symmetry between situations like dollar crashing, gold rising, etc are gone.

You notice the dollar going up/down makes no difference on gold now, and for that matter, neither does news.

I can't wait til the PAGE opens. Get your gold before that happens. That shit's going to make people shit their pants when it opens.

Kind of reminds me of:

Snidley Whipsnae's picture

As Mish pointed out recently the dollar and gold are now moving inversely MOST sessions.

As far as what happened with the gold take down recently (in conjunction with Swissy peg announcement) see what Dan Noricini has to say... He didn't pull any punches.

"Central Banks Waging War On Gold At This Hour"

cheesewizz's picture

I think it was Poopoo that brought up the fact that the USD is the world's reserve curency. Also the USD controlls the worlds oil market with the worlds most powerful military to back it...Just sayin

The Deleuzian's picture


No difference... Print ad Infinitum .......The difference between the $ and the Euro is the duration of the recognition.  It's just a trade and I guess some dead bodies somewhere in real time

Lord Koos's picture

The dollar is "taking off" only as measured against a basket other inflated fiat currencies. It's certainly not "taking off" like gold has been.  

SheepDog-One's picture

Is Zak related in any way to Bob Dobolina?

Not For Reuse's picture

question is, does he cover now and lose 90% of yesterday's unrealized profit, or does he add to his short position on this bounce..?

runlevel's picture

crazyyyy joe davola.. he's kybosh'd before.. and he'll kybosh again..

bob_dabolina's picture

LMAO +1 

That's what everyone else is doing so I'll toe the line.

....maybe they're the same person. 

Whalley World's picture

I undersand Goldman takes out Keyman Insurance on ther employees.  I think Zak has the potential to be a proft center for GS.

goldm3mb3r's picture

The first rule of Goldclub is - you do not talk about Goldclub.

toady's picture

Get it before it gets too hot!

Cash_is_Trash's picture

Heck, keep it low, I need to accumulate!

bankrupt JPM buy silver's picture

Ive traded all my Gold in for NFLX.  I do what Gartman does.

Troll Magnet's picture

are you retarded? you need to diversify!
i suggest you sell some, but not all, shares of NFLX and pick up some Hulu and spam. and some iPads. you're gonna need iPads!

RealitiveMind's picture

Get iPads in different colors?


OT (well sort of always the topic) -

topcallingtroll's picture

I find myself strongly attracted to you.

SilverBaron's picture

Is that the most interesting man in the world?


Snidley Whipsnae's picture

Interesting to himself... I gotta admit that getting Romans to drop soccer in favor of baseball is a feat... Or is that feat?

Mitzibitzi's picture

No! You're clearly poles apart.

DosZap's picture

< Cash_is_Trash >

WHAT is your def of LOW?.

It's already picked up $80.00 USD from yesterday...................$1870.00, is not what I call BTD.

Add prems, and your at $1900.00............................

tekhneek's picture

Where do you buy gold from? I"m looking at $1920/oz for gold right now...

DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Currently my local coin shop (in a big city) charges about $90 over spot.  The +/- 5% has been pretty consistent for a long time.  And that is for 1 oz Gold Eagles, the form of gold I prefer.

Snidley Whipsnae's picture

Try Gainsville Coin, Blanchard's, etc... Shop around for best price... and ask about insurance and delivery charges.

SWRichmond's picture

Heck, keep it low, I need to accumulate!

I'm buying miners on the dips.  Fun stuff!  The new purchases are up 9% in two weeks.  And I'm not even a trader.

Justaman's picture

A little cannibalism never hurt noone.

disabledvet's picture

I thought that Zac guy was a popular musician/troubador. Oh wait...that's Zac Karabell (sp?) a gold "analyst." what the hell is that?

Mitzibitzi's picture

"This one here is gold. That one... tungsten, I'm afraid."

"Really! Fort Knox, you say? How about that!"

mayhem_korner's picture

A Man for All Seasons?

Who darest pull thy curtain back...?

Sequitur's picture

Here we FUCKING go.

Cognitive Dissonance's picture

OMG! Someone is speaking truth about Gold interventions? OMG!

GeneMarchbanks's picture

Funny how they're on the truth wagon now that there are no consequences?



NotApplicable's picture

The only thing missing is the "TA DA!"