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Goldman Issues 1.40 Price Target On EURUSD

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Time to sell the EURUSD with both hands and feet, not to mention with MF Global-type leverage: that uber-contrarian FX indicator, Goldman's Thomas Stolper, who has not had a notable call correct in the past 2 years, just came out with a long EURUSD call, calling for a 1.40 target and a 1.35 stop loss. Yes, this means Goldman is now selling EURUSD until 1.40 and will begin buying it at 1.35. As a reminder here is how Stolper's last EUR/$ recommendation ended.

From Goldman:

Over the last two days, and after another period of extreme risk aversion, European policymakers appear to have made some progress towards reducing near-term policy uncertainty.

 

The nomination of Lucas Papademos as Greek PM governing with support from all key parties reduces the risks of escalating confrontation between other Eurozone countries and Greece. Indeed, the chance of more structural reforms being implemented in

Greece has risen as well. In Italy the high likelihood of a unity technocrat-led government being put in place over the weekend, led by Mario Monti, is also encouraging.

 

These two developments suggest that Eurozone fiscal tensions could continue to decline, at least for a period of time. FX markets had started to price extremely negative scenarios again in recent days as visible in risk reversals for example. Given the policy news described above, we think the fiscal risk premium can decline again in the near future and hence we see the potential for a quick EUR/$ move back towards 1.40.

 

We would go long EUR/$ with a narrow stop at 1.35 for an initial target of 1.40 (currently at 1.3715).

 

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Fri, 11/11/2011 - 11:46 | 1869821 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

Stolper is a worse criminal than Corzine.

Fri, 11/11/2011 - 12:26 | 1869988 Ahmeexnal
Ahmeexnal's picture

 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/germany/8881740/The-fol...

 

I recall vividly an occasion in 1991, soon after the putsch against Margaret Thatcher, when she presided over a small dinner of sympathetic young intellectuals. I congratulated the former prime minister on her resolute stand in the Cold War, alongside Ronald Reagan, which had done so much to bring down the Berlin Wall. The Iron Lady’s face darkened. In her most imperious tone, she expostulated: “Are you saying that I am responsible for that?”

German reunification was – and is – her deepest regret. She welcomed the liberation of Eastern Europe from communism, but she feared European monetary union, or what her lieutenant Nicholas Ridley called “a German racket designed to take over the whole of Europe”.

Ironically, the Germans themselves have played to the gallery by suggesting that the alternative to the single currency may be war.

 

Fri, 11/11/2011 - 13:57 | 1870351 Instant Wealth
Instant Wealth's picture

Rotten Albion at it's best ...

Fri, 11/11/2011 - 11:47 | 1869828 PicassoInActions
PicassoInActions's picture

Fuck squid.... EURO 1.33 by wendsday

Fri, 11/11/2011 - 13:16 | 1870216 Harlequin001
Harlequin001's picture

Which wendsday?

Fri, 11/11/2011 - 11:53 | 1869829 Mercury
Mercury's picture

Best of luck levering yourself up to make that 2 1/2 cent move worthwhile...

Fri, 11/11/2011 - 11:49 | 1869832 Racer
Racer's picture

We will see if he can go for the perfect call yet again (for everyone to do the opposite of course)

Fri, 11/11/2011 - 11:48 | 1869833 Ted Baker
Ted Baker's picture

DEATH RIGHT MY BET IS 1.41 BEFORE REVERSAL TAKES PLACE

SAME GOES FOR GOLD AT 1,850 AND SILVER 40 NEXT WEEK

Fri, 11/11/2011 - 11:57 | 1869873 EL INDIO
EL INDIO's picture

You got some bold predictions there !

I bet we’ll see gold below $1700 before $1850.

Wanna bet ?

Fri, 11/11/2011 - 12:28 | 1869999 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Theyre in desperation mode so its all-in on hammering down gold and silver.

Fri, 11/11/2011 - 12:46 | 1870064 EL INDIO
EL INDIO's picture

Remember it's not real Gold or Silver, it's paper contracts.

The floor or very strong support level as it is called (between the 100 and 200 ma) represents real physical buyers (according to me and I could be wrong).

Fri, 11/11/2011 - 18:41 | 1871152 smiler03
smiler03's picture

I bought my first ever gold today :o)

Sat, 11/12/2011 - 12:02 | 1872084 Blank Reg
Blank Reg's picture

Welcome to the tin foil hat tribe.

Fri, 11/11/2011 - 11:48 | 1869836 AngryGerman
AngryGerman's picture

buahahahahahaha 1.40? buahahahahahaha!

so you bettre expect depreciation bitch

Fri, 11/11/2011 - 11:49 | 1869838 vegas
vegas's picture

Attention Clients:

Blind squirrels find nuts every once in a while, so evidence is accumulating that this time, for sure, he might be right. We want you to be bullish with both feet, as we sell with both hands. We make book on squirrels finding nuts. Sorry.

 

http://vegasxau.blogspot.com

Fri, 11/11/2011 - 13:18 | 1870227 Harlequin001
Harlequin001's picture

Ok, so you've got nuts, but do you ever make any money?

Fri, 11/11/2011 - 11:49 | 1869840 Cdad
Cdad's picture

The tell is so easy today.  As the market ignores for now, it's epiphany, when it comes, will be seen in the US dollar...which is currently experiencinig a 6 sigma selling event right into Goldman's call to buy the Euro.

Binary trading at its finest.

Fri, 11/11/2011 - 12:30 | 1870005 Cdad
Cdad's picture

What is better than one 6 sigma selling event on the US dollar?  Two 6 sigma selling events.

Looks like it is ready to turn.

Fri, 11/11/2011 - 12:53 | 1870113 EL INDIO
EL INDIO's picture

It will very likely be reversed next week.

Fri, 11/11/2011 - 11:49 | 1869841 achmachat
achmachat's picture

EUR is falling. That is certain and there is no way around it.

But is it possible that there's some piece of info out there that tells Stolper the USD is going to fall a little bit faster than the EUR? If both currencies end up worthess, why shouldn't there be a 1.40 on the way down?

Fri, 11/11/2011 - 12:10 | 1869925 tim73
tim73's picture

How long you have been saying that? 10 years? Europe in not only Greece, most eurozone countries actually are doing quite good when compared to USA with mammoth trade deficit, unemployment and budget deficit problems.

Fri, 11/11/2011 - 12:25 | 1869948 achmachat
achmachat's picture

I am not talking about current events only. I may also tell you that I am in Luxembourg, and this place is filthy rich and people would not think in their darkest dreams that all of that Greece-stuff would affect them.

I am talking about the fact that because there's new currency that has to be put into existence faster than just the economic growth, and this by design, the currency will lose its value. There is no way around that.

Fri, 11/11/2011 - 12:26 | 1869987 WestVillageIdiot
WestVillageIdiot's picture

Nominal GDP of Luxembourg over $100,000 per inhabitant?  Holy shit. 

Fri, 11/11/2011 - 12:28 | 1869997 WestVillageIdiot
WestVillageIdiot's picture

During the past decades, growth in the financial sector has more than compensated for the decline in steel. Services, especially banking and other financial exports. account for the majority of economic output.

 

Let us know how that works out. 

Fri, 11/11/2011 - 14:47 | 1870517 RichardENixon
RichardENixon's picture

He doesn't need to let us know.

Fri, 11/11/2011 - 11:50 | 1869843 Ganja Jane
Ganja Jane's picture

...and we haven't even begin to discuss the CDS.

Ponzi Scheme.

Fri, 11/11/2011 - 11:51 | 1869847 Hugh_Jorgan
Hugh_Jorgan's picture

This is BS. They know the score and are padding their exit.

 

They expect everyone to believe that articles like this are just fear mongering?

 

http://www.express.co.uk/posts/view/283060

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/8882643/France-plots-...

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/8883851/Political-dea...

Fri, 11/11/2011 - 11:51 | 1869848 Ferg .
Ferg .'s picture

The only Goldman analyst I trust for trade ideas is John Noyce . Haven't seen his analysis in a while now . Pity , it's really great stuff . 

Fri, 11/11/2011 - 11:54 | 1869854 pennypusher
pennypusher's picture

This is just scary - The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. is a leading global investment banking, securities and investment management firm that provides a wide range of financial services to a substantial and diversified client base that includes corporations, financial institutions, governments and high-net-worth individuals.

Someone hold me...

Fri, 11/11/2011 - 11:55 | 1869856 Hearst
Hearst's picture

Bernake while speaking to troops in El Paso was asked what the world would look like without the Fed (obviously the soldier was a Ron Paul supporter)

 

Bernake's half-assed response?  "It's not a very realistic proposal, Essentially, every country in the world has a central bank"

 

I can't believe this shit.  So because central banks have a monopoly control of money and credit in every country this justifies its existence????

 

END THE FED!

Fri, 11/11/2011 - 12:15 | 1869941 Tramp Stamper
Tramp Stamper's picture

Hmm..Bernanke talking to troops in El Paso....just saw an ad on tv Chase pitching to hire ex soldiers...I wonder why the banking system is paying so much attention to our military lately?????

Fri, 11/11/2011 - 12:56 | 1870129 EL INDIO
EL INDIO's picture

When peaceful deceit fails they will turn to violence.

Fri, 11/11/2011 - 14:14 | 1870397 viahj
viahj's picture

because more and more of the military is beginning to see through the "fog of the bankers' war" and the elite can not afford to lose their enforcers.  they are terrified of this trend and hope to nip it in the bud with short term financial largesse.

Fri, 11/11/2011 - 15:06 | 1870587 Instant Wealth
Instant Wealth's picture

Bernanke talking to troops in El Paso ?!

 

"War on drugs" revival and invasion into Mexico before Christmas ?

Revenge for The Alamo 1836 ... yeeehaaw ... long ZZ Top records !

 

Fri, 11/11/2011 - 11:55 | 1869860 ZeroPower
ZeroPower's picture

What the fuck kinda risk reward is that? 

Fri, 11/11/2011 - 11:55 | 1869862 CvlDobd
CvlDobd's picture

Brilliant trade setup by GS with a reward to risk ratio of 1.27:1 !!

How can someone get excited over those odds?

Fri, 11/11/2011 - 11:56 | 1869864 ReactionToClose...
ReactionToClosedMinds's picture

thank you zerohedge.....but are you sure you or anyone wants to suggest jon corzine 'leveragemaster' levels of leverage on a goldie 'inspired' trade?  

Fri, 11/11/2011 - 11:56 | 1869865 aleph0
aleph0's picture

Obviously Goldman has a boatload of Euros they need to sell .

End of story

Fri, 11/11/2011 - 11:57 | 1869869 entendance
entendance's picture

Even the blind get that:

Vatican owns the financial world, via mr.bean-draghi (ex-jesuit alumn and goldman boy), via Monti (ex-jesuit alumn and bilderberg goldman boy), via Barroso (ex jesuit alumn) etc.

vatican + jesuits + goldman.

Time to get rid of them all.

 

Fri, 11/11/2011 - 11:57 | 1869870 wang (not verified)
wang's picture

With Goldman de facto running Italy and the ECB ...

Fri, 11/11/2011 - 11:57 | 1869871 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

How in the world do they have any clout whatsoever ? Time to go long the dollar till the Euro hits 1.30

Fri, 11/11/2011 - 12:02 | 1869886 sabra1
sabra1's picture

the only way to make money these days, is to buy canadian real estate!

Mon, 11/14/2011 - 13:35 | 1876032 Oracle of Kypseli
Oracle of Kypseli's picture

Do you mean preserve wealth? Or make money! How?

Fri, 11/11/2011 - 12:02 | 1869889 scratch_en_sniff
scratch_en_sniff's picture

1.42 end of month, peice of piss. Fuck fundamentals, theres fun and games ahead.

Fri, 11/11/2011 - 12:05 | 1869899 TheSilverJournal
TheSilverJournal's picture

The USD is in fundamentally worse shape than the Euro. Europe has barely warmed up its printing press, while the US has rolled off trillions and is on the hook for the nations mortgages, which just passed the 50% mark being underwater if all selling expenses are included like 6% Realtor fees, etc. to give a true measure of whether money is needed to be brought to the table at closing. The difference is, the states can't opt out of the US, but Eurozone members can leave the Euro. But the Eurozone members won't leave the Euro because it would then mean the collapse of the banking system and the end to both the Euro and the USD because the banks would have to write off the losses, and they can't handle one big hit like that. 

Fri, 11/11/2011 - 14:21 | 1870421 Bear
Bear's picture

 Is this just another Col. Nathan R. Jessep moment?  ‘… You just can’ handle the truth!

Fri, 11/11/2011 - 12:09 | 1869916 aleph0
aleph0's picture

The USD is in fundamentally worse shape than the Euro.

No .. the EUR is a Project, the USD is a currency !

Big Difference .

 

Fri, 11/11/2011 - 12:10 | 1869923 TheSilverJournal
TheSilverJournal's picture

They both look like they come from a printing press to me.

Fri, 11/11/2011 - 12:36 | 1870028 Ahmeexnal
Ahmeexnal's picture

The euro is "a German racket designed to take over the whole of Europe”


Fri, 11/11/2011 - 13:06 | 1870167 TheSilverJournal
TheSilverJournal's picture

I don't know about that, but any central bank is there to benefit the bankers + politicians and not the people. 

Fri, 11/11/2011 - 15:16 | 1870617 Instant Wealth
Instant Wealth's picture

Others say, "the Euro is an instrument to strip the wealth off the Germans".

Fri, 11/11/2011 - 12:09 | 1869920 A Man without Q...
A Man without Qualities's picture

seriously, we get one day of no bad news and the bulls try and push us back into rally mode... hilarious..

Fri, 11/11/2011 - 12:26 | 1869990 rumblefish
rumblefish's picture

no kidding...this is fully retarded. maybe i'm biased because I'm underwater on some short positionss....

Fri, 11/11/2011 - 12:17 | 1869958 FutureShock
FutureShock's picture

Yeah sure that's a good play for a few hours as new leaders will give the tiny bit of hope that they can fix this so he will be right. Then when people go long he will already be short.

Trade reccomendations by the hour.

 

Fri, 11/11/2011 - 12:17 | 1869959 NOTW777
NOTW777's picture

EUR - cup and handle; neck 1.3650ish - it is what it is

inverse H & S on spx and dow from yesterday playing out

Fri, 11/11/2011 - 12:25 | 1869985 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

GS hopes you pile in and buy their bullshit Euros before they collapse.

Fri, 11/11/2011 - 12:40 | 1870041 neevarp
neevarp's picture

What if these guys really mean it this time?

Fri, 11/11/2011 - 12:53 | 1870116 Bear
Bear's picture

I've got the feeling that all this constant attention to Europe and the never ending barrage of news is just a huge subterfuge to keep us focused away from the deleveraging that must happen here in America. As long as the news is off shore the media doesn't have to explain the realities of our economy and the conditions here.

Fri, 11/11/2011 - 12:57 | 1870134 LookingWithAmazement
LookingWithAmazement's picture

1.40 -- no euro crash. Bye bye crisis (what crisis?). Boring world we live in.

Fri, 11/11/2011 - 18:53 | 1871176 smiler03
smiler03's picture

If you don't know already there is an Icelandic volcano blogger who is very well followed. Latest http://www.jonfr.com/volcano/?p=1771

Fri, 11/11/2011 - 13:22 | 1870236 BeatTheMarket
BeatTheMarket's picture

Reminder to my self: sell any E/U rallies until 1.40, thanks Goldman

Fri, 11/11/2011 - 16:00 | 1870717 Eireann go Brach
Eireann go Brach's picture

Baahhhhh Bahhhh Bahhhh said the wolf in sheeps clothing Stolper, and yes all the stupid sheepies followed him into the Abattoir known as the giant fucking squid!

Tue, 11/15/2011 - 12:41 | 1879420 searcher68
searcher68's picture

Hmmm, didn't see any selling at 1.3496. Maybe this was just a paper trade? Mental stops only?

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