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Goldman Launches The SS QE3
As Zero Hedge said back in January, when we predicted the transitory "bounce" or "temporary hard spot" in the economy, well ahead of everyone, the first thing that would need to happen for QE3 to be launched is for Goldman's Jan Hatzius to admit that his December 2010 call for an American golden age was a disaster, and to recognize that the economy is now contracting at a rate that will put last year's Q2 and Q3 GDP drops to shame. As of two weeks ago, that has happened. The only thing that was missing from our checklist was for Hatzius replacement, who enjoys the occasional Hefeweizen at the Pound and Pence with his former co-worker Bill Dudley, to make it clear what Goldman's position vis-a-vis QE3 is. Well, as of a few minutes ago we can cross that box too after Hatzius' lieutenant Sven Jari Stehn just said that "A sharp increase in the Fed's assessment of recession risk would most likely trigger significant additional monetary easing even if inflation remains well above their target." What has inspired this change in hear? Simple: nothing less than the "realistic–possibility of a significant further deterioration in the economic outlook." Oh well, the recovery was fun while it lasted. Same for the strong dollar. Next up: Jackson Hole in one month, where Bernanke will announce what the Dudley-Hatzius tag team has been whispering in his ear for the past month.
From Goldman: What Do Taylor Rules Say About the Threshold for Monetary Easing? (Stehn)
Discussion about additional monetary easing has reemerged with weak growth in the first half of the year. Fed Chairman Bernanke, for example, said that persistent weakness in activity and renewed deflationary risks would “imply a need for additional policy support” during his Congressional testimony on July 13. More recently, Chicago Fed President Charles Evans said that he might support a third round of asset purchases.
What do Taylor-type rules say about the need for additional monetary easing? Our baseline Taylor rule describes how Fed officials have historically set the funds rate using four-quarter-ahead forecasts of core PCE inflation and the unemployment gap (actual less “structural” unemployment). (For details see Jan Hatzius and Sven Jari Stehn "The Warranted Funds Rate: Is It Really Negative?" US Daily, March 10, 2010.) Under our forecasts this rule currently suggests that the "warranted" funds rate is still substantially negative at -3% (see Exhibit). (Under the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) June forecasts--which are somewhat stale at this point--the warranted Funds rate is also negative but higher at -1.4%.) This prediction is close to that from a rule estimated by Glenn Rudebusch of the San Francisco Fed, an update of which suggests that the funds rate "should" currently be around -3.3% (see "The Fed's Exit Strategy for Monetary Policy," FRBSF Economic Letter, 2010-18).
The problem with these simple rules, of course, is that they do not take into account the Fed's unconventional policies. By lowering long-term yields, the Fed's asset purchases were designed to substitute for conventional monetary policy and thus imply that the appropriate funds rate should be higher than suggested by the simple Taylor rules discussed above. (Put another way, if we "give the Fed credit" for asset purchases, the funds rate itself does not need to be as low.) Similarly, the Fed's guidance that it would keep interest rates unchanged for an "extended period" was designed to ease financial conditions. Our analysis suggests that the Fed's asset purchases are equivalent to a cut in the funds rate of about 75 basis points (bp) per trillion (trn) dollars of purchases, while the "extended period" language is worth an additional 30bp. (For details see Jan Hatzius and Sven Jari Stehn,"QE2: How Much is Needed?" US Economics Analyst, October 22, 2010.) Adjusting our baseline Taylor rule for these estimates suggests that the appropriate funds rate is currently -1.1% and will turn positive in mid-2013 (see Exhibit).
Fed Chairman Bernanke's statement during the Congressional testimony suggests that Fed officials see asset purchases as a more powerful substitute for conventional monetary policy than our estimates suggest. Specifically, he argues that the Fed's asset purchases are equivalent to a 67 to 200bp reduction in the funds rate per $1trn of purchases. These magnitudes are based on a number of studies that suggest that the second round of asset purchases lowered longer-term interest rates by approximately 10-30bp. Unfortunately, Bernanke does not explain how he translates the estimated long-term reduction in interest rates into funds-rate equivalent terms. We suspect that these estimates are based on a study by Glenn Rudebusch (see citation above), who argues that long-term interest rates are four times as powerful in affecting output as changes in short-term interest rates--exactly the same multiple that Bernanke uses. Adjusting our simple Taylor rule with the mid-point of Bernanke's range suggests there is no need for additional easing: the current monetary stance is appropriate and the funds rate should actually be raised soon (see Exhibit).
Under what circumstances would these rules call for significant additional monetary easing? One possibility is a much smaller estimate of the effectiveness of asset purchases than Chairman Bernanke's. Indeed, our own estimates imply that the impact of QE2 is only slightly more than half the midpoint of Bernanke’s range. Similarly, updated simulations of the Fed's macro model ("FRB/US") suggest that reductions in long-term interest rates have an effect on output that is 2½ times larger than equivalent declines of the federal funds rate after four quarters. These simulations suggest that the observed decline in long-term rates is equivalent to a 25-75bp reduction in the funds rate--also quite a bit lower than the magnitudes cited by Bernanke. But even with these estimates, the Taylor rule would not point to the need for significant further easing.
The second–and probably more realistic–possibility is a significant further deterioration in the economic outlook. We estimated a few weeks ago that it would take a 1¼-point increase in the expected unemployment rate or a 1-point drop in the inflation forecast for additional easing to become appropriate. (See Sven Jari Stehn, "Sizing the Fed’s “Zone of Inaction",” US Economics Analyst, June 17, 2011.) Moreover, it is possible that these rules overstate the hurdle against additional easing. After all, Fed officials are well aware that the US business cycle is highly asymmetric. In the postwar data, every increase in the unemployment rate by at least one-third of one percentage point (on a 3-month moving average basis) has indicated a recession. Therefore, the Fed would likely respond asymmetrically to improving and deteriorating information at this point. A sharp increase in the Fed's assessment of recession risk would most likely trigger significant additional monetary easing even if inflation remains well above their target.
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1700 by Jackson Hole.
1800 whilst Benny opens his mouth at Jackson Hole.
Shalom swallows his Jackson HOLE WHOLE.
The Bernank says to his side kick, The William Dudley, to the Fedmobile, Dudster!
Off to The Jackson Hole.
Inflation, Schminflation! We need to ease monetary policy some more, bitchez!
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/06/22/us-pimco-fed-gross-idUSTRE75L4...
Black Helocopters over the Tetons
inflate or deflate, the end result is unchanged: less buying and selling. Deflation goes to the saver inflation to the spender. that is, the rich get poorer or the poor get out of the debt hole. the real debate is about who pays the piper.
the guys from http://www.forecastfortomorrow.com have been getting laughed at for saying qe3 is coming.
But they seem to be two steps ahead all the time.
They know how the governemnt plays....act like it is backed into a corner and take actions that go against the people. The fasard continues people. What a joke!
I bet they cant wait to unleash QE4, oh and dont think it CANT happen either! QE 1, QE2, QE3, QE? yes yes. are you starting to wake up and see a pattern now! :P
Coz I iz not in the disunited states I can only comment from the side-lines, which include knowing that Cantor (and no doubt others) has shorted the bond market.
He will make a fortune out of everything crashing and so will many others in their insane world of "money/financialism" is everything. But it is all short-term innit!
In the long-run no one wins.
Meanwhile all those like Cantor - in the context of gambling about the "debt ceiling" - operate out of pure self-interest, so do not expect any meaningful resolution of "the debt crisis".
Isn't it amazing how ZH provides a forum for the absolute bashing of the TBTF banks, the FED and every other party we love to bash, yet we hang on every word that these bastards utter.
DaddyO
Yes, because not only do they make the rules, but they telegraph them too.
For now...
That's right, just wait until QE3 is announced. They will not be able to keep the lid on silver this time...and they know it.
And without their promulgations, we'd nothing to bash.
Was it the chicken or the egg first?
Or the rooster?
When a Central Bank acts as Market Maker/Manipulator it's all over as far as I'm concerned. Hanging by ropes from trees may telegraph to future generations that they acted too late, too little and incorrectly when they did.
Long on rope!
they don't even have to telegrah. It is a given.
Fed can play this game longer than any trader shorting against it.
Just enjoy the gains.
Rules, Tyler---what stinking rules???
"I win and you lose----always" ? That 's no stinking rule----it's fascism ----just plain and fucking simple fascism. Why try and put a pretty face on it?
I don't like authority om
oldman
the rule is not that you gonna lose...that is the result
The rule is how you gonna lose
I don't have authority
ff
Tyler
I have been gone for the past few hours and upon returning here it shows that threads I haven't even visited are not equal in the number of new comments vs the number of total comments. Is this a bug in the system or is there another dogbreath, imposter of course.
BTW, I'd like my junk button back. Zero Hedge isn't womens international figureskating.
Regards
well, the market better go down a helluva lot more from here in order for them to get away with it
"It is said that if you know your enemies and know yourself, you will not be imperiled in a hundred battles; if you do not know your enemies but do know yourself, you will win one and lose one; if you do not know your enemies nor yourself, you will be imperiled in every single battle."
-Some Chinese General Guy
sounds like something confusious would say
I think it was sum dum gui
Sun Tzu - The Art of War
Also........
It is essential to seek out enemy agents who have come to conduct espionage against you and to bribe them to serve you. Give them instructions and care for them. Thus doubled agents are recruited and used.
Sun Tzu
All war is based on deception.
Sun Tzu
Same Chinese general:
Sun Tzu ...again
If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles.
If you know yourself but not the enemy, for every victory gained you will also suffer a defeat.
If you know neither the enemy nor yourself, you will succumb in every battle.
Pay attention to your enemies or they will skullfuck you when you arent watching.
The Federal Reserve is a Private Bank, just like the TBTF banks. The system that it has created is a giant illusion. This is not a US Specific problem, as the European countries are trapped within the same nonsense system America is apart of. Zerohedge does a great job teaching many of the specifics of the corruption.
http://thehardrightedge.com/furtherquestions/
We are utterly screwed are we not? I have believed since QE2 started that this fiat game is coming to an end. I guess I should come off the rest of my dollars and buy more gold and silver. This crap would be funny if it were not so serious. Millions of people are about to get the high hard one!
i was listening to a alternative media radio show on the internet and these two guys were talking about things. they are probably in their thirties. the host said that according to his demographics research most of his listeners are in their thirties and forties and he wanted younger listeners but he said the reason why they don't listen is because they think they are growing up in the same world as their parents. they are correct. the young people of today haven't got a clue and i am afraid for them. their world is not their father's world. hard core reality coming hard at them, will not be pretty and will not be pleasant, as it won't for the rest of us as well.
Was it Patriot Radio news hour. and the Dudes laugh a lot and joke and talk about gold.
I like them and download their show. It's a lighter side to serious stuff.
http://patriotarchives.blogspot.com/
Well doomers, some of you are going to be shit out of luck. Some of us are going to be fine no matter what happens.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=98WtmW-lfeE&ob=av2e
Did I not get some sarc? If you listen to Katy Perry then I can assure you, you are not fine... Are you 9? At least try Embryonic Journey or something that resembles music instead of a proactive commercial.
I like you dude. I am 9 in spirit.
Tyler - quit trying to manage the unmanageable.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CTAud5O7Qqk&ob=av2e
You have a good taste in music chumpppp.
+ 75,000,000 + views + kt_pry +
No Sir, we are not screwed.
Buy a coin bullion at a price lower than the ask. Make sure your spread is more than your purchase fee.
Wait until the buy is completed. Then transfer the coin to the ask column to sell at a profit. Again make sure your fee is less than the spread.
That way you should be successful in Physical Metals and Bullion. But take care, some metals are trading at spot or below price plus spot with very small gaps between Bid and Ask and the fees will eat your profits up.
That is how you fight a QE3.
This is the only time I will say anything about this.
Uh huh yeah right. Good luck buying silver for less than $4.00 over spot anywhere. Unless you buy in 1000 quantity which very few of us here can do. I buy 10-25 at a time myself and have found NOWHERE that sells for less than $4.00 over spot, at least in the past 6 months. Your advice is equal in value to the tits on a borehog.
You'll get it confiscated, especially in a full violent reset, which is the only real result of going "balanced budget" for any real length of time!
oh goody, up and down arrows............say something robo.........:)
+5 HPD... YEN
Nothing surprises me any more.
"Pound and Pence", that is good sir, that is good. :)
Good night all. Gotta get some sleep for tomorrow's games.
Someone has got to pay the price.
Will it be YOUR generation, will it be MY generation or will it be a FUTURE generation?
I suggest total collapse will come within the next five years.
Extend and pretend can only last for so long before it blows up in their face. Man, willl Ben and the FED ever be sorry for ever thinking the could get away with it.
The crime of the century
Not a chance this can be extended for five more years. The cat is jumping out of the bag on a daily basis with a greater and greater number of people waking up to the ponzi. As this snowball heads downhill, it will grow and roll faster and faster making it impossible to stop.
We're done here. Please turn out the lights before you leave.
Funny, the people I see on a daily basis are still only concerned about gay marriage, football, beer and reality TV. Not sure what people you're talking about. I think many of us here make the mistake of thinking that everyone else thinks like we do here on these kinds of blogs. The VAST majority of Americans don't even know anything is out of the ordinary. Trust me on this. Either that or they are still blaming those evil warmongering Repuglicans even though most of this shit happened while the D's had control of CONgress. The ones that do know are mostly still blaming the wrong culprits. Those of us here and on other forums that know the REAL score are probably less than 1/10 of 1% of the population. No, Americans are certainly not waking up to the ponzi.
Much sooner
Five years? Right now, I would not give total collapse five WEEKS. After tonight, I am only about 50-50 that this theatre ends before August 2.
One more can kick maybe.
And that's a MAYBE. (Not disputing, just emphasizing.)
I'm now in the "no deal" camp. I think we have run out of time, and I think it's going to take emergency actions not to "soft default"/prioritize. The "hard default" comes if they make certain decisions on prioritization, which I have already noted.
Blythe/ eur-usd on the top of the trade? Or play the FIBI? You are a child... Should we trade eur/jpy short or long?
Buy the dip? [ wink wink] ? You are a child with a female toss across... Nothing more and nothing less....
Stay under the porch): YEN
"We all fucked"
boomers can't retire or retire in fear.
boomerangs can't get a job or buy a house
future kids are being screwed before they are even born as boomerangs with no job and no home will have less and less kids.
Actually, I think you are wrong. Look at the birth rates in all the so-called "first world" industrial democracies. Barely replacement to below replacement. Prosperity and "Progressive" thinking equal less children. Poverty breeds. Prosperity is sterile.
Tell that to the illegal Mexicans in my town and hood. Every one of them has 10 kids on their arm. 50 years from now this country will look just like any other 3rd world Hispanic shithole.
Blythe you understand this system well. Look at HPD - he is a real man yet has more negative arrows than plus ones. Shit's fucked up, no?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KlyXNRrsk4A&ob=av2e
i thini if i lived in "free money land" like Hatzius i would have been very optimistic too. If reality ever sits in, they are rich enough anyway to not give a damn.
"QE to Infinity and Beyond" they will never end. When we are paying one million for a loaf of bread yet another QE will be announced to get the economy in order.
I'm holding fifty five credit cards, I've applied for, and am waiting to see what happens! I'm going to Load the Boat when I see the Real Shit starts hitting the Fan with Silver.. Five cards will be to pay the Minimum on the other fifty ! If my timing is a bit off.. I won't default..lol And I will pay off all the other credit cards with Fiat ! I don't hold much Fiat, just to pay the Bills.. My local coin dealer and I are Great Friends ! He thinks I'm crazy, but gives me Great Deals ! And when I'm Right will be happy to buy back some of this silver ! Thanks Banksters ! Only sitting on a few hundred pounds..lol
What are you waiting for ? Load 'em up buying PMs ! All you really need is a bank debit card ! Load 'em up and don't pay 'em ! Credit cards will be useless after TSHTF ! This message will self destruct in 30 seconds ! Monedas 2011 The good collection agencies send you return envelopes with cellophane windows....keep 'em ! I use them to pay my Mexican landlord with cash ! He gets a kick out of seeing the bills in the little window ! Anyone seen DoChen ?
Nice! But take care, the ASE Market is a Shark Frenzy in the bloody waters from those who cannot make a profit.
Good for you, Swing,
I like 'free' thinkers and anarchists
do the right thing
what a great bankster twist
just a little drivel for the road good luck, bro' om
Ewwwwww.... shades of manipulation.... "even if inflation remains above their target"
What?
Heretofore haven't Tiddliwink, Tweedledee and Tweedledum been forecasting that everything in inflation land was all hunkie-dorie, A-OK, spot in, in line with the Fed's very own insightful continued low inflation aside from some unusual seasonal weather, global tensions, whatthefuckever related happenstances?
And now, a possibility that....
....hold on, it may get worse....
....but the buggers are gonna have to capitualte to our vision of a weaker economy (even though we'd said there was no fucking way under the stars that was gonna happen) ...
....so that our desk whose trading rvenues have fallen off of late can flip some more newly auctioned treasuries back to the Fed essentially thereby not Directly monetizing the debt...
....so our bonus pool can grow at a more rapid pace.
Or is this all too bloody cynical of me?
Ah, beautiful snowy Chiswick on bonus payout day.
Guess you haven't seen the "other" set of books kept by the Fed (where the real rates of inflation, unemployment, etc., are known!) Neither have I.
... and the tungsten inventory, M3, password for the money printing keyboard....
Why don't we throw in the towel and hand the keys over to Mugabe?
All of this is just terrific. The intellects of all these thinkers should be harnessed to do something useful.I am not sure what that would be though...
We have an economy in which a whole lot of people would like to do something productive and earn a living - but there is no one to employ them because it is "cheaper" to employ people elsewhere. We have an abundent supply of goods - but not enough people to purchase them. We have a minimal social safety net - that is still a drag on the economy both through taxes and borrowing. We have a crap-load of wealthy people and corporations that do not feel any loyalty to the society that spawned them and protects their all of their interests. We have an even larger group of wannabe "capitalists" that only are interested in risking other people's money in a game of "heads you lose and tails I win".
I keep thinking that this has probably always been going on - but I really cannot see another period in history like this. God help us all.
Check this out > http://youtu.be/4Z9WVZddH9w be patient for at least 15 mins.
Its all cloud in the sky but so were many ideas before.
next time please mention that you link Zeitgeist/Venus Project. My estimate is 95% of ZH audience know about Zeitgeist and another estimate is that of those 95%, 90% think Zeitgeist is crap. It is a pity, because their explanation of the monetary system is quite good in parts. But their vision of the future is just highly ridiculous sect stuff.
If your estimates are correct (which I doubt) than ZH crowd is incredibly fucked up and ignorant. Aside future plans of TZM or TVP, which are debatable, their interpretation of the current economic system is quite realistic and grounded. As someone said, we are buying stuff we dont need, with money we dont have to impress people we dont like. On a large scale. And thats the subversive essence. While at the same time hundreds of millions of people are living in agonizing poverty and dying of starvation.
Anyone who really knows what Z is about (specially last iteration "Zeitgeist: Moving forward") simply cannot be full hearted suppoter of "free market", not because its bad but because its impossible on a scale larger than medieval village with few hundred inhabitants living isolated in a resource rich area.
As I've been saying for 3+ years now: this only happens because the American people allow it to happen.
sorry - double post
Hyperinflationary collapse by end of August 10%
End of 2012 30%
End of 2013 50%
End of 2015 90%
If we are not there by end of 2016 I quit reading ZeroHedge, take up rose gardening or knitting or golf (just kidding) and just float down life's river because nothing I thought I knew was right. I will at that point believe unicorns can save the dollar and learn to just love Big Brother.
2013, has a nice ring to it. it started in 1913. they like the number 13..........
if we're not there by the end of 2016, we'll all be legally fuking blind
It is not good at all and I know I could be hurt badly when 'it' comes - nevertheless I share this kind of 'come Armageddon, come Armageddon, come!' - feeling...
2011 30%
2012 100%. End Game. SHTF. Mad Max
I like this guy.
Mad Max in espanol for California and Texas.
No longer certain Mad Max waits for 2012.
2013 at the abject latest, but there's a reason I truly believe I am dead or in prison in the next five months.
You're already in a 'prison'. Debt/Fascist/Communist/Casino Gulag/Police State Prison.
P.S. Don't let them catch ya or set up someone that deserves it, aka someone like Robotrader.
The latter was meant more formally, I guess.
But your statement also plays out why I believe the former may also occur. I will be shocked if I am "free", in any sense of the word, by the end of the year.
Must have read Schumpeter to have that feeling.
Yes, completely mixed emotions re: The Great Implosion™!
...you would be amazed at all the things that indicate the same thing (time wise) and they are not to do with the market black hole directly.
It will be amazing if this September goes without a peep and not the City Citi Size Multi Disaster Black Swan Dive. Weird stuff going down, from some comet Elenin getting to it's closest point to the Sun on 911, right on the 10 years later date ''by chance'' etc... On the 17th of October the comet happens to be closest to the Earth, think that's also the month the Mayan's claim we enter the ''Dark Rift'' till 2112 center point ...err something, and The Ratzinger of Rome has called all the Arch Pediphiles to Rome on the same date, which has never happened in history or something. Lot's more of that kinda weird stuff converging with this market mess, including prophetic scripture. Likelyhood of all this mess converging at the same time, lol ...zero. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FbKlxuu0u3w
P.S. ...last time that comet was to be lined up with the Earth and Sun there was another 7.6 quake, before that the same alignment happened and so did 9.0 Fukushima. It's just weird, from the Nobel Prize Norway Spiral, to Norway this week, there's a lot of stuff to go with this whacked out market and it's all just faa ruh eeky man.
I'll bet you $10.00 in 2011 money that it happens before 12/31/2012
January 2011 or October 2011 money? And by that $10.00, you do mean ~0.2g gold or 1/3- 1/4 oz silver, right? ;-)
Are you kidding? I don't bet real money (according to me not Benny boy). I'm going to need that. I only bet the paper crap.
Hey lvp,
I like this: "---just float down life's river because nothing I thought I knew was right."
Now that is just where we are
This is the 'do-nothing dudes' credo
It is a doing by not-doing
I had nearly lost hope
sales have been slow
but you nailed it on the head
so remember what you said
i dislike rhymes sorry om
I followed the Hefeweizen link (of course), it led to Dudleys schedule for some months in 2010. At the management morning meetings is mentioned 'Int'l Access Caller Paid'. Does that mean, when I am participating in the FED phone conferences, I have been paying??? NOW I know where my enormous telco costs come from! Avaricious bastards!
i don't think we will see the end of fiat paper anytime soon. 3 reasons for this. 1) The amount of PM's needed to fund the global economy is not at hand, 2) the excrement pile Bernank and the other clowns will let hell freeze over before they give up power, and 3) to get the people of Amerika and other industrial nations to switch to hard money will take generations.
I could be wrong, but the fiat system as it sits today allows the TBTF banks [and others as well] to generate ungodly sums of money from proprietary trading. In essence, ES & forex trading [and derivatives] fund the world. Without it, and by default hard money, and this ends. That is something GS, JPM and others will not allow to happen under any circumstances.
Of course they want QE to the nth power, and they will convince idiots like Obama and little Timmy to do it. It's all for the people don't you know?
Sure there is.
It's just that you don't like the price.
sadly, vegas is right. there needs to exist a more accessible medium of exchange.
the disparity of the population owning physical PMs vs. the have nots is impossible to maintain for long.
there needs to exist a more accessible medium of exchange = fiat
however, right now, there is not even enuf fiat, print! print! print!!!
Hope Mexico makes their silver ounce coins, maybe next year. They used to be too corrupt to think aboutsuch things. They must have ate the worm.
There is always enough precious metals. It all comes down to pricing. Hell you could break gold down to 1/100 th of an oz and give it a price.
you can break it down to 1000's of a gram in fact (mil) - Goldmoney already have.
Fiat 2.0 as long as they can....
But if fiat (USD) decouples from oil and no longer accepted, then something is going to have to back the paper, or be exchanged for it. Can't fight all lof MENA.
China + Iran, Russia: made partnering deals to avoid using USD. Bad sign.
IMF SDR global fiat basket working sort of, but maybe is going to have real substance backing the participants or they fade
"Under what circumstances would these rules call for significant additional monetary easing? One possibility is a much smaller estimate of the effectiveness of asset purchases than Chairman Bernanke's"
So if we can show that the prior round of LSAP's had a smaller effect than earlier estimates, that would cause us to calculate that further LSAP's are required (because of the lower Taylor rule value)? Does this strike anyone as not making any rational sense? More like make up shit to plug in new numbers to get the outcome we want. Lunacy.
"Not making any rational sense"?
I think you have a real good concept of what's going on, Jeffersonian.
When the solution to debt is increased spending, and fiat paper is money and "gold is not money". Rational sense is nowhere to be found.
I said back in 2009 that "Japan is the best case scenario". Sho-nuff that's where we stand: repetitive cycles of QE, and other types of stimulus, ZIRP and endless market interventions.
See Japan at least still has it's hulking manufacturing base, technological know-how and trading surplus. All we have is Netflix.
Extending the Ponzi will have perils, though. It's stoking up Biflation which in turn is aggravating a huge rift between haves and have nots, between Wall Street and Main Street, between the politically connected in Washington and their paymasters and cronies in the corporate world against all the rest. There are big political consequences coming that will reverberate for decades.
One big difference between Japan and USA.
military.
Yes and US is using it to get more oil and force Iran to use dollar again.
Japan is not allowed to have a military after losing WWII.
...that's funny, guess the ones I met were just dressing up? You sure it's not nukes or something? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JsBM6sA1cFs
Japan Self-Defense Force
strictly defense. technically just an extension of police. Sure, this is a cover up just like Iran and N. Korea says they are developing nuclear facilities for energy and not to make bombs, but Japan still lacks offensive capabilities such as aircraft carriers, long-range surface-to-surface missiles, ballistic missiles, strategic bombers, marines, amphibious units, and large caches of ammunition.
They participate in wars led by US under US orders. You will never see Japan take a lead in the offensive like US does. US still dominates on sea, air, space.
Also, no nuke, no currency power.
ZH is Tops ! Bet I get a few green arrows just for saying that ! And a Few red ones from the Trolls..lol
ZH is Tops ! Bet I get a few green arrows just for saying that ! And a Few red ones from the Trolls..lol
TOTALLY agree!!! At one time there were Commercials on the tube "when Merrill Lynch speaks, people listen" Now it's "Goovernment Sachs". No TV Commercials tho, now we just get the bone. Cooked up deals to slam us that much more just so they get another 20Mil or so. Gen X and younger have a serious reason to be off the top PISSED. The Ponzi falls and they get hammered hardest of all. I employ young engineering's on design projects from time to time on a contract basis, and the debt burden many of these kids have just from their degree are simply unbelievable. The Interest Rates move up from here (they must) and the serious unwind in the States will begin. Anyone out there pick up this weekend about the recent big jump in numbers of under 40 year old gen rotating maxed credit cards just for essentials? Not buying toys...basic needs!!! What a damn mess this is!
It was "when EF Hutton speaks...people listen" :-)
Yeah man, ''X'' marks the ''spot on'' call you offered there. ...can't see any point showing up to work for a negative return on your labor, which gets bigger every day the ''X Mark'' show up in this bottomless BTFD Cup. Pretty amazing, their labor is working hard against the ''principle of labor'' ...and people are so busy or just resigned to this pointless system's current negative rate of return? ...the idea of a bloodless American Revolution has never come to mind? Who knows how the strong delusion works but, it's alive and kick butt for sure. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sEolFeMAalY&playnext=1&list=PL9F698BB9A7120068
...Jackson Hole and it's the ''Equal Rights'' State ta boot''. Message? ''we are casting everyone into our black hole, Jackson!'' It's women and children first with this crowd too. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iotqohL6E5w&playnext=1&list=PL07A5793B3C1EF90A
Only thing between us and complete collapse is ever increasing fiat printing. Oh sure, this is gonna end well.
That chart is rich... The black daggar through the middle made me go ( Old School)...
*holding* SDS - "I'm all in.."
Oh!!! 'poor fella' is all in, this may be it folks! Bernanke has two full houses and a king...
PF is holding all hearts and conviction that Das Bernank is bluffing - We've seen B.S. win time and time again on the river and it looks like this time is no different. He's absolutely unbeatable folks. It seems that he's going to win back the money he printed yet again!!!
One big monkeywrench... the SS QE3 cannot sail without the fuel... that is, more issued treasuries. And Bernanke can only buy US-guaranteed debt. So, QE3 right now would mean only be buying existing debt. That is not part of the "plan" between the banks and gov. They are supposed to use most of that printed money to buy newly issued debt. Outright printing to benefit purely the banks is going put Bernanke's charter (and illustrious career) at risk.
More likely to me they will scare down the market so Congress relents just like last time, then debt limit raised + QE3 to save the day. The half life will be much less though this time around....
Good post! YEN...
I think you are on to something! Hold that position!
Robotrader is going to have a Red Arrow kind of day tmw. No pun Intended. haha
NFLX & DXY Big Red arrow + the one next to his Name. lol
Edit: Just saw a Robotrader post with "61" Red Arrow Down (RAD)
after not being able to junk RT for 48 hours, what we have here is irrational exuberance
61 rads eh?
That's going to sting in the morning..
John Reckholz, of San Diego California, nailed it in his 1965 'letter to the editor' of LIFE magazine:
"...Niggardly..." ?
John Reckholz, 1965, was preciously.
12-21-12 : End of the world...Seems about right.
not quite even.
11-11-11
also don't fly on 9-11-11
If there's an attack on 9/11/11, which I would not sleep on, I think it's going to be in an NFL stadium.
wanna buy a square in a pool as to what the score will be, visiting team first, single digits, when the scoreboard goes down? only $1/square!
i've got 0-0
...weird you should mention the NFL stadium, they have been runing ''The Sum Of All Fears'' since just before the little freak Mason boy slaughterd all the kids in Norway. Movie has the whole fascist goup of nutballs and the guy that receives the nuke at the docks is named ''Mason''. The bad guys in the Clancy scheme use an Israel lost nuke fuled by American weapons grade fissile material. Don't think they will do a stadium scene but, they sure have been pushing the container ship aspect of delivery in those NTI movies with the same Russian lost nuke theme and Al Q up a go go ...and some other notable things. I'm thinking it's going to be a South African connection for the material traces, because most don't get that Israeli connection, and some of the usual BCCI to Bahgdad suspects. That last Al Q psyop declared Europe as the place for the big bang but, NYC and D.C. and the ten year 911 thing is just too good to pass up if you are going to time the market and 2012 election to fit in with the whole December 21 ''New Age'' and ''New World Order'' emergency Apollyon Rising like lightning thang. Most people have no clue about the occult boys and their masonic demonic bullshit so it all works out to be more of a terrorizing ''picture' when it plays out that way', like the moron media & movie scenerio's they have been ''Fed'' with this market crisis. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g_47mmt5SZY&feature=related
...12-21-12 naaa. Having it end for a 100k plus in a WMD event in a city or two, in the coming months, or some time within 12-21-12-13, I'm going 100%. End of the world, naa, not yet. Just look for Rosemary's Baby to be the one to broker a United Nations Middle East peace plan and some kind of New World Order global market New Deal with a new global personal ID security (like the RFID Fed Real ID Act now in affect in most countries) system to access all personal accounts for ''global security'' reasons as a result of a WMD event. When you see that happen, yeah, give it about 3 1/2 years before that plan goes bust and all hell breaks loose, which would be about 2016-ish if it plays out that way. The indications of this happening exactly that way are certainly piling up exponentially every passing day, from strange eclipse patterns on feast days and at the end of 3 Jubilee cycles happening at the same time on the same date Jerusalem was restored in 67, 50 years to the date of Yom Kippur, ...to crazy comets and solar eruptions, great earthquakes, massive stroms, tornados gone wild, heat, drought, cold, floods, tsunamis, melt downs, wars and a global market beast that is in the perfect prophetic image of Babylon's ''want''. Well... there is plenty more, but, you get the idea, it's pretty wild stuff happening to line up with ancient claims and it happens to fit the occult boys running the show too. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y9VLtelUUMk&feature=related
Hey Blackhole,
'Never gonna be no to da world-----end to dis species' habitat
mutual habitat of all da species
world don' care 'bout us
we don' care 'bout us
we don' care 'bout nuttin'
we tooooo dumb!-
A Friend of mine, another old man told me this years ago but
I did not understand what he meant until every redneck I met started telling me the same thing
There will be a shift---a change and I am just dying to see it------good luck, though om
...so cryptic, hard to sipher Louis, lol. ''Change'', moonshine will do that after a jug. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sLka7gxpivw&feature=related
...''good luck'', those words kill me, remind me of a map maker I knew, who said them to me a few hours before he passed away. ''Luck'' really does not have a thing to do with realizing the black hole end case scenerio. Sounds action packed fer them transhuman escape artists boyz out in la la land. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a9b0JpHlq8E
Fear not, stand fast and do no harm, it may hurt while you do but, it pays not to be a jerk when your own judgment call comes into play, keeps you from bruising your heel on your own ass. lol... Too bad Chairsatan and the 666 Citi 5th Ave farts don't care about anything but the short term temptation, and when you factor in the Burdensome Stone, well... ain't nothing gonna stop the correction flames, the market whore buys sells and trades, from aaah burning up them tares with her. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EaRYfZrm2HQ
blackhole,
this old man does not understand a thing
just a lot of gibberish
but
without imagination and a sense of humor these humans would be------exactly where we are
i don't see what's so hot about knowing the future
it is still denied
let it flow, brother, this is not THE end
its only a dead end
thanks om
...well oldman, there is some depth to the gibberish. I recall, as I drove the map maker (with the new map), from the same airport that the plane flew out of on 911 and smacked into the Pentagon, I asked about the new lines drawn at the Dayton Accords. The response was, it was almost exactly like the old map from the last war. History repeating, lol, because evil never changes and it will run it's course to the end, so in that respect I get where you are at brother.
...as far as ''this is not THE end'', well, there is a map in scripture which declares ''THE'' end, and it is written. If you don't care about getting to where you are going, or anyone else for that matter, you certainly don't need a map, you are already at a dead end from the get go. There's a point there of course but, pointless gibberish in the ear that has reached the dead end, well, it is meaningless for sure, so, I get where you are and where people reading the New World Order map will be, seperated.,., spiritually from the labor of the harvest, while at the same point in time all the gibberish remains drawn out upon this last generation. The current builders of the tomb, from the time they established their own unbecoming point of order, defined by their own dead end map, they are inspired by the author of confusion, which represents the black hole, are we to buy their BTFD offer? Naaa. http://bible.cc/proverbs/23-23.htm
...but you are right, leaving things out and waxing parabolic accents the case for more info but, if people are just going with the flow, things will never make much sense. Like trying to decipher a redneck saying Sipher to a guy named Louis. lol http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ecg0y-5Pwm0&feature=related
P.S. ...by the way, that KJV ''burdensome stone'' reference: http://bible.cc/zechariah/12-3.htm just to clear up the ''gibberish'' It's good to know there is an oldman on the right side of His story still laboring in the field.
Something like QE3 should require a Congressional up or down vote - and it doesn't. Another reason those bastards at the Federal Reserve need to be shut down. It's like the 4th branch of Government leading us right into hyperinflation.
As long as you're prepared let them. Then hopefully the bankers get strung up by their.... Well they certainly don't have man parts .. strung up by their camel toes.
As I scroll down, I find I'm only reading posts with a large positve number. Isn't that interesting....
You mean 'posts with Green Arrow Upo (GAU)
Vs. Red Arrow Down (RAD)
Thank you divine master Goldman. Thank you master. Thank you.
lol
Euro trying to break upwards from bull flag, past 1.45 and we might see 1.6, silver to 50. Thank you squid thank you Bernank for the free money.
...oh you might not pay the price right now, for drinking Chairsatan's BTFD Cup of Fornication ...but, that mark upon your lips seals the deal, your shits in the wind troop and your own judgment will come upon you. Don't be tempted to think the market whore, riding this beast, is not fallen. Into the black hole she goes ...Bitchez. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UgBQ20LuIRg&feature=related
...count on it. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MEjdt_n1l-4&feature=related
Euro trying to break upwards from bull flag, past 1.45 and we might see 1.6, silver to 50. Thank you squid thank you Bernank for the free money.
PMs just caught a nice bid ?Old Garrard Turntable Playing "A Dollar Down" by The Limeliters? - YouTube
1615/40.52
Here you go rat:
Morgan Stanley Raises Gold, Silver Targets Through to 2016"Morgan Stanley raised its gold forecasts for 2011 and each of the next five years, boosting predictions for annual average prices by as much as 24 percent on heightened demand for haven commodities."
But if you want a real laugh look at the actual prices they are "forecasting" for the upcoming years!
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aDBlBFRGgMXg
From the article you linked... This is so utmost ridiculous. I do not know any better, but how can highly paid and educated people make such predictions without dying from embarrassment and shame the second after they hit the enter button? Average $1,150 in 2016. I cannot even laugh.
Stand-down Lloyd! CMI says QE3 won't be necesary! ... apparently the USSA is having the most dramatic rise in online durables in all of net hystory.
http://consumermetricsinstitute.com/index.html
Take note that this blue line is rising way too fast in a dead as a door-knob REAL inflation adjusted GDP ekonomi ... what does that tell you?
I like the new arrows. Raise your hand if you're looking forward to robo's 1st post. :) the responses should be interesting.
I also like the new arrows and was looking forward to Robo's first post. Unfortunately I had to give him a green arrow because he said something somewhat interesting. Bet he tried real hard just because of the arrows. If not for the arrows, he probably would have posted something like "It's POMO day, buy stocks!!! Here, look at my retroactive NFLX chart!" Looking forward to the next time he posts one like that. Also looking forward to when he gives up and starts posting fine ladies again.
Could we have the "Read More" link back on the article teaser footer please?
"who enjoys the occasional Hefeweizen" I certainly hope its a Tucher Helles Hefeweizen. First had this lovely beer in Nürnberg, Germany at a beer garden that was in the old Führer Bahnhof, next to the Zeppelin field stadium.
Debit limit gets raised ... QE3 on. In fact the debt limit is the only thing that has stopped Bernanke to date.
Questions I ask myself almost daily these days:
What is the breaking point of the USD? Is it infinite or is it already broke and we're seeing everything in slow motion?
Which strategy of QEx &or Deficit reduction produces the least path of resistance? I.E. The least pain to the most people & short term normalcy? - aka the political choice.
What are the global and local effects of default, selective or full of a G7 nation?
And of course, who benefits from the probable outcomes?
Questions are often more enlightening than answers, and while the future is grey, the probability density of all the variables are pointing toward a set of outcomes which spell one sort of chaos or another. During the last few years, I've developed a new-found respect for the so-called "doomers" who have been preparing for such an eventuality, but imo, the collapse of the USD could mean a rennaisance in the American economy in the long term with jobs galore for the cheap exports it will be producing when "Made In USA" becomes synonymous with value for money instead of expensive junk.
But as long as people identify their nation with their currency instead of worthy goals and ideals, and fail to divorce themselves away from a meaningless conceptual device of convenience that only benefits a few under the control of megalomaniacal gangsters we call banksters, - they will have us under their control. And this scheme of creating wealth out of nothing for a select few using a conceptual device that has no value at all, like all the schemes of madmen, is designed to run for a thousand years. It might actually be time for humanity to get rid of "money" as a convenient unit of exchange.
QE3.....YAY! The pooer the sheeple, the richer the power elite! BARF!!!!!
It was a bad time for the empire. The Shogun just stayed inside his castle and he never came out. People said his brain was infected by devils, and that he was rotting with evil. The Shogun said the people were not loyal. He said he had a lot of enemies, but he killed more people than that. It was a bad time. Everybody living in fear, but still we were happy. My father would come home to mother, and when he had seen her, he would forget about the killings. He wasn't scared of the Shogun, but the Shogun was scared of him. Maybe that was the problem. At night, mother would sing for us, while father would go into his temple and pray for peace. He'd pray for things to get better. Then, one night the Shogun sent his ninja spies to our house. They were supposed to kill my father, but they didn't. That was the night everything changed, forever. That was when my father left his samurai life and became a demon. He became an assassin who walks the road of vengeance. And he took me with him. I don't remember most of this myself. I only remember the Shogun's ninja hunting us wherever we go. And the bodies falling. And the blood.
There is no basis to the rumor that Monedas will be replacing perma-bear Jon Nadler at Kitco ! Monedas 2011 Although it would be a brilliant move ! DoChenRollerBearing, how are you at the Martial Arts ! I'm looking for a body guard with a sense of humour !