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Goldman Lowers Q2 Tracking Estimate To 1.5%

Tyler Durden's picture





 

As the stock surge on escalating bad news accelerates, here is one more datapoint that should be good for at least 5 more S&P points: Goldman just lowered its Q2 GDP forecast even more, from 1.6% to 1.5%.

BOTTOM LINE: Factory orders increase, but weak inventory growth implies downward revision to Q2 GDP tracking estimate

 

Factory orders increased by 0.7% (month-over-month) in May, more than generally expected. Key underlying details in the report were mixed. On the one hand, orders and shipments of “core” durable goods (nondefense capital goods ex-aircraft) were revised up. On the other, inventory accumulation in the manufacturing sector was below our assumptions. Taking together, the news was a slight negative for our tracking estimate of Q2 GDP growth: we revised down by one tenth to +1.5% (annualized).

 


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Tue, 07/03/2012 - 11:17 | Link to Comment veyron
veyron's picture

Give us some more goldman trades so we can do the opposite ...

Tue, 07/03/2012 - 11:21 | Link to Comment stocktivity
stocktivity's picture

As long as central bankers can keep printing money out of thin air, It's all BULLSHIT!!!

Tue, 07/03/2012 - 11:37 | Link to Comment FL_Conservative
FL_Conservative's picture

When this thing goes to hell, its going to be like a rocket-slide on rails.  Better have your seatbelts fastened.

Tue, 07/03/2012 - 11:49 | Link to Comment hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

 

 

Worries about world food prices are increasing, stoked by a 10% rise in US corn and wheat prices in just a week.

As a result, investment bank Goldman Sachs on Friday raised its price forecasts for corn futures contracts to $6.25 per bushel, up from $5.25.

Tue, 07/03/2012 - 12:07 | Link to Comment Richard Chesler
Richard Chesler's picture

What's the advice for the muppets?

Tue, 07/03/2012 - 11:19 | Link to Comment ZeroPower
ZeroPower's picture

China running at ~4x the US rate. Only makes sense to invest where the growth is. Yes yes, massaged numbers this, hard landing that. Fact of the matter is, i'll still take 5% (super conservative assumption) over a point and a half stateside.

Tue, 07/03/2012 - 11:24 | Link to Comment The Monkey
The Monkey's picture

The price moves following the big ECB rate cut will set up an awesome trade. Look for the S&P to top out between 1400 and 1422.

Tue, 07/03/2012 - 12:29 | Link to Comment Stock Tips Inve...
Stock Tips Investment's picture

Chances are that domestic demand continue without much force during the next twelve months. Surely, the companies that have been made stronger in the international market, may show better results. Beware beyond Europe because consumption will fall very sharply.

Tue, 07/03/2012 - 11:19 | Link to Comment papaswamp
papaswamp's picture

WTI up 4%....

Tue, 07/03/2012 - 11:23 | Link to Comment VonManstein
VonManstein's picture

88 by tonight 92 by friday!

Tue, 07/03/2012 - 11:23 | Link to Comment VonManstein
VonManstein's picture

QE3 in the pipeline.. global intervention beggining ECB rate cut thursday get long PMs baby

(and junior miners)

(and oil)

fuck stocks they are sinfull

Tue, 07/03/2012 - 11:24 | Link to Comment Captain Benny
Captain Benny's picture

Uhm, so Goldman raised it and then lowered it and is now lowering it more...

What muppets would trust these turds?

I'm thinking the GDP is going to be far worse than 1% (officially)

Tue, 07/03/2012 - 11:26 | Link to Comment midgetrannyporn
midgetrannyporn's picture

The squid has their fist up the muppet's ass.

Tue, 07/03/2012 - 11:23 | Link to Comment Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Growth in consumption isn't  gross domestic product. Since we produce virtually nothing but waste it needs to be reclassified as GDC.

Tue, 07/03/2012 - 11:23 | Link to Comment HelluvaEngineer
HelluvaEngineer's picture

Quick - short Silver and VXX!

Tue, 07/03/2012 - 11:24 | Link to Comment HaroldWang
HaroldWang's picture

Other than the weak ISM yesterday, which had some seasonal adjustments, Factory Orders and Construction Spending both were actually quite strong. Today, we also see very strong auto sales. I have to admit, I've been very bearish but these numbers are starting to turn confirm the trend in the market.

And, once again, Europe is shining bright green going into the close again. Short term euphoria? Perhaps. But, the markets like it and, as they say, the trend is your friend when it comes to market movements.

Tue, 07/03/2012 - 14:39 | Link to Comment Bunga Bunga
Bunga Bunga's picture

What sense does this oversupply construction investment make?

Tue, 07/03/2012 - 11:24 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 These markets are a complete f..king joke! there is no participation, and when q-2 earnings start the cracks will open. These race to the bottom central bank moves will have the half life of a "rat in a room full of cats".

Tue, 07/03/2012 - 11:30 | Link to Comment HaroldWang
HaroldWang's picture

Probably not. Analysts, media, etc. have convinced everyone that earnings will be horrible in yet another classic set up of, "yes they were bad but not as terrible as we thought". So don't be surprised when lousy earnings actually push the market higher and higher, as has any other bad news. 

Tue, 07/03/2012 - 11:26 | Link to Comment BlueStreet
BlueStreet's picture

So this is how the market thinks it's going to get more QE, it's laughable.  

 

 

Tue, 07/03/2012 - 11:26 | Link to Comment Meesohaawnee
Meesohaawnee's picture

someone give GS the memo. A: nobody cares. B.. Until ben lets the market be one. Matters none. Please this complete joke has gotta end. Its torture.

Tue, 07/03/2012 - 11:26 | Link to Comment Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

Must explain the relentless bidding up in the market.

Tue, 07/03/2012 - 11:26 | Link to Comment ChubbNut
ChubbNut's picture

Son, this is what happens WHEN YOU F*** A STRANGER IN THE ASS!

Tue, 07/03/2012 - 11:30 | Link to Comment Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

Wow, how truly blantant is the bidding up today?

Just in time for the 4th of July break.  A cool hundo on the Dow.  That probably goes will with some relish and potato salad.

What a f'ing joke.  How utterly pathetic can this get?

Tue, 07/03/2012 - 11:47 | Link to Comment HelluvaEngineer
HelluvaEngineer's picture

 

 

  • MARKETWATCH: DOW UP 100, I DUNNO, JUST FUCKING BECAUSE
Tue, 07/03/2012 - 12:01 | Link to Comment Duke of Con Dao
Duke of Con Dao's picture

here's a vid mash not seen by the likes of the ZH board...

another Goldman shot across the bow... includes Orson Welles

scene used in Sales and Trading program at GS...  I promise or your money back!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8zwTHPyWgkI

 

Tue, 07/03/2012 - 12:57 | Link to Comment Snakeeyes
Snakeeyes's picture

Not surprised. The factory orders surprise will likely be a negative surprise in June. A velocity-less recovery --- AKA, stall.

http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com/2012/07/03/an-ike-1959-velocity-recovery-factory-orders-surprise-for-the-moment-ny-pm-business-conditions-fell-goldman-lowers-q2-2012-gdp-forecast-to-1-5/

Tue, 07/03/2012 - 14:29 | Link to Comment Grand Supercycle
Grand Supercycle's picture

Rally Warning Confirmed...

As mentioned earlier, further equity strength and USDX weakness expected this year according to my analysis.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-12-24/market-analysis

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!