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Goldman Market Summary: Dumb Money Joins The Dumpfest

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Last week the hedgies were dumping, as the "momo whale" dumb money was chasing things higher on low volume intraday levitation. Today, idiot money (which is known thus for a reason) joins the dump fest. And according to Goldman, "the selling pressure is still muted." And unless the Politburo of the Developed World comes up with a Deus ex Printerium fast, muted may soon go to Max Volume.

From Goldman:

Another disappointing day for stocks. Asia lower, Europe lower, US lower as Greece worries continue and financials again trade particularly heavy. Guilty until proven innocent it seems. 9d RSIs say SPX is fast approaching oversold territory, but our technical analyst Bill Noble suggests selling pressure is still muted (looking at the 10d moving average of TRIN at least). Notable though that long only-accounts were much better sellers today. That wasn’t the case last week. SPX ends down 15 at 1338 (-1.11%). The DOW ends down 125 at 12695 (-.98%). The NASDAQ ends down 2903 (-1.06%).

 

The VIX was up 2 today to 21.9.

 

EURUSD again trades to new cycle lows – more Greece worries, weak IP, and most recently a downgrade by Moody’s to Italian banks. While selling interest was consistent, it hasn’t yet come close to the type fervor that suggests an inflection point. Elsewhere, USDBRL trades above 2.00. Haven’t seen that handle since July 2009. Thinking about BRL a different way, the currency has sold off more than 30% since its July 2011 high vs. the dollar. At current levels of carry, earning 30% will take about five and a half years to make back. GBP remains a rock. Only marginally weaker vs. the dollar today, and stronger vs. mostly everything else. The transition from basket case to safe haven probably says more about the external environment than anything about the UK, but is amazing nonetheless. USDJPY still boring. Pinned just below 80.

 

Tomorrow brings GDP for the Eurozone, Germany, Hungary and the Czech Republic; US CPI, Empire Manufacturing, Retail Sales, and Long-Term TIC Data; and CPI for Poland and Israel. There will be an EcoFin Meeting tomorrow, as well as the redemption of a Greek International Bond.

 

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Mon, 05/14/2012 - 20:05 | 2425295 fonzannoon
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Earnings are over and Europe is a mess. I don't see how the S&P does not drop ten points a day every day until something is announced.

Mon, 05/14/2012 - 20:10 | 2425306 junkyardjack
junkyardjack's picture

GRPN announced....

Mon, 05/14/2012 - 21:16 | 2425447 bdc63
bdc63's picture

"... as well as the redemption of a Greek international bond ..."

LOL ... they added it like 'oh yeah, there's that Greek thingy too' ... no biggie, nothing to see here.  move along please, you're blocking the hopium.

Mon, 05/14/2012 - 20:24 | 2425331 stocktivity
stocktivity's picture

I read someplace recently that Goldman had ONE day of a trading loss last quarter. A whole freaking quarter....3 MONTHS. 60+ business days in a quarter and they had ONE day of a loss. Nobody is that good a trader. How many different ways can you spell RIGGED? As in rigged against the little guy!

Mon, 05/14/2012 - 20:31 | 2425341 XRAYD
XRAYD's picture

yes, GS is slipping. BAC had ZERO days with a loss.

 

Goldman's quarter compares to Morgan Stanley (MS), which had four days of losses but two days of gains between $150 million and $200 million. Bank of America Corp. (BAC) had a perfect trading quarter, with no losses and gains greater than $100 million on five days.

http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20120510-714447.html

Mon, 05/14/2012 - 20:38 | 2425358 shuckster
shuckster's picture

You're missing the big picture - Goldman and BAC can control the small swings by flooding the market, but they are still at the mercy of the macro economy

Mon, 05/14/2012 - 21:02 | 2425415 Whoa Dammit
Whoa Dammit's picture

It's hard to lose when you're trading with yourself.

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 01:56 | 2426021 Lord Koos
Lord Koos's picture

I don't understand why the Euro is still above 1.27.  Who the fuck is buying the Euro?

Tue, 05/15/2012 - 04:09 | 2426099 Bohm Squad
Bohm Squad's picture

Out of curiosity, and obviously begging the question here, would the Euro benefit from eliminating participating countries with weak balance sheets?  Genuine question...I'm not an FX trader by any stretch of the imagination.

Mon, 05/14/2012 - 20:07 | 2425303 tomreagan
tomreagan's picture

Well, we have not breached the 111,240 day Moving Average yet

"The fall in the yield on UK Treasury bonds – known as gilts – beat the previous low of 1.92% in January, and is the lowest level since Bank of England records started in 1703."

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2012/may/14/uk-treasury-bonds-record-low?newsfeed=true

Mon, 05/14/2012 - 20:08 | 2425307 insanelysane
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What Greece worries?  Hasn't the MSM been telling us that Greece is a tiny, insignificant, amount of money and since they have been pouring in money for years the tiny would be even tinier. 

Dimon says Greece is a tempest in a teapot.

Mon, 05/14/2012 - 20:08 | 2425308 gatorengineer
gatorengineer's picture

Manufactured european GDP, Manufactured Retail Sales, which can only be up, and Manufactured Empire index.....  That should do it.... Looks like tomorrow is green barring a surprise from Fianance Ministers.

Mon, 05/14/2012 - 20:28 | 2425337 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

The official memo has been passed around that now is the time to drop the market to give Ben the cover he needs. JPM did their part last week and bearish commentary is popping up where least expected. If the S&P doesn't pop past 1340 tomorrow it's a done deal, drop until Uncle Ben's converted.

Mon, 05/14/2012 - 20:11 | 2425309 XRAYD
XRAYD's picture

In March, Goldman Sachs offered a ringing endorsement for U.S. stocks, calling the current environment a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity for long-term investors to switch out of bonds and into stocks.

 

 

In a research note out this morning, "The Long Good Buy," Goldman's chief global equity strategist, Peter Oppenheimer:

"The prospects for future returns in equities relative to bonds are as good as they've been in a generation."

 

March 21, '12

Mon, 05/14/2012 - 20:12 | 2425317 junkyardjack
junkyardjack's picture

March 21st?  That's like Dinosaur era for this HFT environment.  That was a great Long term buy, long-term equaling 2-days...

Mon, 05/14/2012 - 20:09 | 2425310 knukles
knukles's picture

Lets see......
Krugman's gone from nothing to see move along to
Thank God (Opppsss... Sorry, Paul's a stateist atheist) that the Fed did what they did or else we'd be in a depression to
Thank God that he sent us his only son BO to save us from depression to
Spend more in any amount to save us from depression to
Maybe Greece matters after all
To Europe's a big fucking deal Mr. President (courtesy of J. Biden) to
Maybe we got a problem
To we gotta do something or else the shit's gonna hit the fan to
The si=hit hit the fan because the Republican blocked all the programs and they stopped the Fed from easing more...
So, where was the recognition of the problem, in any case?
So is Paul one of the dumb money that didn't see the problem until it was a problem, does he agree with Goldman, and do they enjoy one another's company?
Just wonderin'

Mon, 05/14/2012 - 20:13 | 2425316 tomreagan
tomreagan's picture

Dimon knows something, checkmate Margin Stanley

Mon, 05/14/2012 - 21:07 | 2425356 Landrew
Landrew's picture

Interesting comment! I was thinking the same thing.

Mon, 05/14/2012 - 20:16 | 2425325 Goldilocks
Goldilocks's picture

Courtesy of the Muppet Pimp,

Snoop Dogg featuring Pharrell - Drop It Like It's Hot
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RaCodgL9cvk (4:35)

Mon, 05/14/2012 - 20:58 | 2425408 junkyardjack
junkyardjack's picture

The shit is fuckin ridiculous

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JztZETJ4SaQ

Mon, 05/14/2012 - 20:20 | 2425328 Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

DON'T FRET!

The invisible forces of the futures markets will force an 'oversold bounce'....whatever the fuck that actually means.  They're are in there messing around right now.

ES +15 by morning dump time.

Mon, 05/14/2012 - 20:36 | 2425357 Bloodgroove
Bloodgroove's picture

This, " And unless the Politburo of the Developed World comes up with a Deus ex Printerium fast, muted may soon go to Max Volume," made me LOL.

Mon, 05/14/2012 - 20:59 | 2425409 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

the Hedgies were dumping? these ones were apparently slaughtering JP Morgan's wrong way bet:http://www.thefiscaltimes.com/Articles/2012/05/11/JPMorgans-$2-Billion-Loss-9-Who-Stand-to-Gain.aspx#page1
I agree there could very well be some great buying opportunities in the coming weeks ahead. This is the moment we have been waiting for and we look forward to doing some bargain hunting. Having said that i think the..."in the thrall" types...are in for a rude awakening if they think JP Morgan's loss is some "one off jobby." The fact of the matter is "this one came directly from the top" and "Europe was the growth strategy." Should Germany really say "we'll deal with Greece but to hell with the rest of Europe" as i think they will in the coming weeks and months ahead this strategy will clearly have a MAJOR and MATERIAL impact on New York City's financial system. I am a fan of Jeff Immelt in here however...we shall see if he has a "little of the Pirate Party" in him and decides "it's time to attack."

Mon, 05/14/2012 - 21:08 | 2425428 orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

SP500 weekly and the volume story.

 

http://bullandbearmash.com/chart/sp500-weekly-11-2012/

 

Elliott wave says primary wave 3 down is underway.  Not good at all.

Mon, 05/14/2012 - 22:56 | 2425674 cnhedge
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