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Goldman On The NFP Number: "Good Not Great"

Tyler Durden's picture




 

From Goldman's Jan Hatzius:

Good not Great

BOTTOM LINE: Employment report good but not great. Establishment survey data clearly better than expected, household survey still soft. (Note: Actual and previous values above corrected)

KEY NUMBERS:

Nonfarm payrolls +117k in July, vs. GS +50k, median forecast +85k.
Unemployment rate 9.1% in July, vs. GS 9.2%, median forecast 9.2%.

MAIN POINTS:

1. Nonfarm payroll employment rose by 117k in July, more than expected. Employment growth over the prior two months was also revised up by a net 56k. Weakness in the report was concentrated in the public sector: government payrolls declined by 37k, and have fallen by about 190k over the last six months. Private sector payrolls increased by 154k during the month, up from an average gain of 90k over the previous two months. Manufacturing employment growth accelerated slightly due to an improvement in the vehicle sector; business services, retail and health care-related employment were also stronger. Temporary employment was unchanged after loses throughout Q2. Average hourly earnings increased by 0.4% (mom), much more than expected, and the average workweek was unchanged.

2. Figures from the household survey were less impressive. Although the unemployment rate fell by one tenth to 9.1%, this was driven by another decline in the labor force participation rate. The household survey's measure of employment fell by 38k, and the employment-to-population ratio declined to a cycle low of 58.1%.

3. Overall the payroll report was moderately encouraging relative to subdued expectations. However, it does not change the general message of weak growth evident in recent data. The preliminary July reading for our Current Activity Indicator (CAI) is 1.4%.

 

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Fri, 08/05/2011 - 09:21 | 1526484 Archimedes
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Said it earlier and I will say it again. I am shorting this Rally....

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 09:28 | 1526508 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

... and so you should. This is just what Goldman has already done.

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 09:49 | 1526566 r101958
r101958's picture

Agreed. Looking at the BLS statistics, it shows -193k in the work force participation number but.....and here is the kicker........Not in Labor Force increased by ....374k! So, the fudge factor here is over 500k....567k to be exact!

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 10:37 | 1526751 Tom_333
Tom_333's picture

Me too. Will be interesting to see future NFP numbers. If I am not mistaken - das Gestalt of the debt ceiling deal is more cuts (some at least) and less tax increases than what was originally dreamed up by Dem´s. This shows that the U.S. is between a rock and a hard place. It´s a good idea to cut but these cuts will increase redundancies in the bloated Fed budget and lead to more folks in public sector moving into the unemployed pool. Todays NFP is therefore a more than ever backwardslooking figure and does not reflect the increasing current dynamic.Any "rally" based on todays figures will be shortlived.

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 10:45 | 1526776 Widowmaker
Widowmaker's picture

Who cares what the liars and thieves at Goldman schlepps have to say?

Really. Fuck Goldman Sacks.

Fuck every person that collects a paycheck from that fraud factory.

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 09:26 | 1526493 Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

Who gives a damn?

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 09:30 | 1526513 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

Uncle Sam. Or so I've been told.

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 09:34 | 1526524 DonnieD
DonnieD's picture

My thoughts exactly. Why do we care about what Goldman wants us to think. He should send his reports directly to Bernanke and spare the rest of us.

 

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 09:45 | 1526535 DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

Goldman on the 666 number: Great not good

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 10:28 | 1526727 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

616 is the new 666.

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 11:15 | 1526861 DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

even Satan's losing value

odd since so many folks are buying in

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 09:26 | 1526494 iNull
iNull's picture

It's just so comical.

The world is burning to the ground. And you, YOU, have signed on to this Satanic system. And the comical thing is you look around and say "I don't understand what's happening." "I don't know what's happening."

What a circus. You see the circus tents being erected, and then are surprised when the circus comes to town. Fools. Goddamn fools.

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 09:49 | 1526567 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Who has signed into a satanic system?

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 10:05 | 1526627 DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

Just look for the red ink

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 09:26 | 1526497 Gert_B_Frobe
Gert_B_Frobe's picture

My view out the Titanic's porthole says different

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 09:58 | 1526608 snowball777
snowball777's picture

Oh, that's a porthole! I thought it was an aquarium.

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 09:27 | 1526499 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Archi, tell us when you enter your shorts. 

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 09:32 | 1526517 Archimedes
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One of my rules of investing / Trading: Never place a trade before 10:30 am.

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 09:53 | 1526581 DonnieD
DonnieD's picture

Don't forget to never take seriously an economic forecast from someone working at a TBTF or the government

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 09:28 | 1526500 writingsonthewall
writingsonthewall's picture

Wheels coming off? - This hasn't even been mentioned by MSM media in Britain - or anywhere else for that matter.

"The dramatic fall in the share price caused a temporary suspension in the trading of RBS shares, making it the third of Britain's major banks to have had trading halted in its shares in the last 24 hours after Lloyds Banking Group and Barclays yesterday. "

 

How can you just halt trading - and won't it just resume selling when it's back? I see that the share prices of these banks staged a miraculous 'recovery' (if you can call it a recovery - well going by the Governments definitions - I'd say so!)

 

Is this plunge protection in action? Doesn't this mean everyone will take their chance and get out - leaving the PPT holding the baby?

 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/banksandfinance/8683157/...

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 09:48 | 1526562 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Capital and real confidence will never form in systems as corrupt as these. The markets are dead empty, the only players in the casino are the mob bosses there to receive their free money directly from the 0% window. Its all BS.

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 09:31 | 1526515 fuu
fuu's picture

Good for +167 in the first minute.

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 09:32 | 1526521 Gert_B_Frobe
Gert_B_Frobe's picture

We'll see about the last 30

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 09:34 | 1526527 Iriestx
Iriestx's picture

Why wouldn't it last all day?  In this bizzaro world, a NFP number massaged by 230k B/D adjustment is proof that the global economy fixed itself over night.

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 10:34 | 1526737 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

Every piece of "good" data proves that past fears were unjustified. Every piece of "bad" data is spurious and should be ignored. In our world, water only flows uphill long term.

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 09:43 | 1526553 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Just some short covering.

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 09:55 | 1526588 docj
docj's picture

WEll, the bounce didn't even last until 10:00 - most of the market is in the red already in spite of this "Strong Jobs Report" (at least it's "Strong" according to the Ministry of Truth - AP branch).

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 10:21 | 1526680 fuu
fuu's picture

Chart looks like a sine wave through 80 minutes. +1.55% to -1.55% and back to 0.

EDIT: Google finance summary chart that is.

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 09:37 | 1526537 iNull
iNull's picture

It's just the price of "high society." There is no "law" that applies to the elite. How long has this been going on? Oh, I don't know. A good 2,000 years at least.

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 09:38 | 1526548 dexter_morgan
dexter_morgan's picture

So when do the real (i.e. revised down) numbers come out?

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 09:46 | 1526559 fwchiro
fwchiro's picture

Isn't GS commenting on the NFP numbers a bit like an author critiquing his own work?

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 09:46 | 1526560 Texas Ginslinger
Texas Ginslinger's picture

Tyler,

What's with the Goldline Internation ad, which is pushed by Glenn Beck..???

Are you recommending that we buy gold from them..???

Do you endorse your advertisers..??

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 09:55 | 1526592 snowball777
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Do not blame TD for what you make AdSense do.

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 10:07 | 1526641 dexter_morgan
dexter_morgan's picture

google puts that shit out there, not Tyler - been looking at any PM sites? Thats why that's there.

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 09:46 | 1526563 youngman
youngman's picture

They are trying to talk it up...but I think the Europe close will set the stage for the day....CAC is up.....?????  others down.....I think bank runs this weekend in Europe...

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 09:59 | 1526609 Version 7
Version 7's picture

Bank runs in the EU have been quietly ongoing for months now (Greece, Portugal, Ireland and so on) but the ECB is desperately trying to keep the zombies alive with repeated liquidity windows and buying sovereign debt.

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 10:27 | 1526712 Zedge Hero
Zedge Hero's picture

Bank runs in Europe and Bank Protests in Israel, the Global Banking Cartel is feeling the heat.

http://www.youtube.com/user/zedgehero

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 09:50 | 1526568 nowhereman
nowhereman's picture

The fact that everyone, and I do mean everyone, knows that government statistics are dubious at best, or more to the truth, outright lies only proves to me that there is no such thing as a "true" investor.

It boggles the mind that there are people willing to play this corrupt game, and yet I see daily instances of people playing at this casino as if somehow they can't get there minds around the fact that the house always wins.

P.T. Barnum was a very wise man.

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 09:54 | 1526583 snowball777
snowball777's picture

It makes perfect sense, if the marks all think someone else is the mark.

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 10:16 | 1526675 Abitdodgie
Abitdodgie's picture

Most people who are still playing the market are compulsive gamblers and they will play it till it dies and takes them with it , why would you still risk your money when you can make a dumb investment in AU/AG and sit back and make lots of money , because compulsive gambling is a mental problem ( that should piss off the gamblers,please feel free to junk because you dont have a problem you have it totally under control)

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 09:50 | 1526569 Sour Grapes
Sour Grapes's picture

Look at the household survey, non-seasonally adjusted, year-over-year employment number:

Number of jobs added in one year - only 250,000

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 09:52 | 1526579 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

And I dont even believe that...250K jobs added where? What companies are hiring big time? None that I know of at all. 

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 09:58 | 1526603 WoodMizer
WoodMizer's picture

The porn industry still dominates internet traffic.

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 09:57 | 1526599 r101958
r101958's picture

I don't buy this number either. Here are a couple of facts....straight from the BLS pdf:

July 2010:

Civilian labor force: 153.6m   

Not in Labor Force: 84.2m

July 2011:

Civilian labor force: 153.2m   (-400k since Jul2010)

Not in Labor Force: 86.4m (+2.2m since Jul2010)

-2.6m in 12 months???

This does not even count the Birth/Death model monthly fudging.

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 10:30 | 1526724 r101958
r101958's picture

By the way, just so you all know, the 'Not in Labor Force' number increased by 374k last month alone.

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 09:48 | 1526574 Catullus
Catullus's picture

The AAPL/NASDAQ just went negative. It's on.

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 09:51 | 1526575 Cassandra Syndrome
Cassandra Syndrome's picture

Proletarian Translation - "Shite not Ok"

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 09:54 | 1526586 Cassandra Syndrome
Cassandra Syndrome's picture

What put Skynet into the red?

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 09:52 | 1526587 digalert
digalert's picture

Mr. Market just read ZH

.

DIVE DIVE DIVE!

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 09:55 | 1526590 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

Dig Goldman talking like it isn't all going to collapse into a heap of rubble. It's a man baby.

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 09:56 | 1526593 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

Bank holding company bitchez.

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 09:57 | 1526598 Cdad
Cdad's picture

And the BlowHorn [CNBC] hacks continue on with the hue and cry..."intervention...intervention."  This from a supposed market oriented financial news network.  Could the ratings actually go lower...you know, statistically speaking?

Attention COMCAST:  Emergency...emergency...credibility surpassing zero.  

And nary a word breathed about the BAC revelations from last night.

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 10:49 | 1526615 Instant Wealth
Instant Wealth's picture

*bounce* *bounce*

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 10:12 | 1526649 dexter_morgan
dexter_morgan's picture

wow, that exuberance didn't last long

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 10:14 | 1526657 franzpick
franzpick's picture

World financial markets and participants all watching one corrupted number.  Include me out.

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 10:50 | 1526797 glenlloyd
glenlloyd's picture

I think it would be better to have said, "NFP Numbers Bad but not Worse" versus what GS said.

At this point there's little that can be had from this modest report, the 'gains' if you can call them that, were insufficient to the point of being nothing.

I am of the opinion that the numbers are so meaningless now simply because they've been distorted so badly. I just get the impression that the WH called and said don't you dare print anything bad...so it was all 'massaged'

Wed, 09/14/2011 - 04:55 | 1667447 chinawholesaler
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