Goldman On The NFP Number: "Good Not Great"

Tyler Durden's picture

From Goldman's Jan Hatzius:

Good not Great

BOTTOM LINE: Employment report good but not great. Establishment survey data clearly better than expected, household survey still soft. (Note: Actual and previous values above corrected)


Nonfarm payrolls +117k in July, vs. GS +50k, median forecast +85k.
Unemployment rate 9.1% in July, vs. GS 9.2%, median forecast 9.2%.


1. Nonfarm payroll employment rose by 117k in July, more than expected. Employment growth over the prior two months was also revised up by a net 56k. Weakness in the report was concentrated in the public sector: government payrolls declined by 37k, and have fallen by about 190k over the last six months. Private sector payrolls increased by 154k during the month, up from an average gain of 90k over the previous two months. Manufacturing employment growth accelerated slightly due to an improvement in the vehicle sector; business services, retail and health care-related employment were also stronger. Temporary employment was unchanged after loses throughout Q2. Average hourly earnings increased by 0.4% (mom), much more than expected, and the average workweek was unchanged.

2. Figures from the household survey were less impressive. Although the unemployment rate fell by one tenth to 9.1%, this was driven by another decline in the labor force participation rate. The household survey's measure of employment fell by 38k, and the employment-to-population ratio declined to a cycle low of 58.1%.

3. Overall the payroll report was moderately encouraging relative to subdued expectations. However, it does not change the general message of weak growth evident in recent data. The preliminary July reading for our Current Activity Indicator (CAI) is 1.4%.

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Archimedes's picture

Said it earlier and I will say it again. I am shorting this Rally....

GeneMarchbanks's picture

... and so you should. This is just what Goldman has already done.

r101958's picture

Agreed. Looking at the BLS statistics, it shows -193k in the work force participation number but.....and here is the kicker........Not in Labor Force increased by ....374k! So, the fudge factor here is over 500k....567k to be exact!

Tom_333's picture

Me too. Will be interesting to see future NFP numbers. If I am not mistaken - das Gestalt of the debt ceiling deal is more cuts (some at least) and less tax increases than what was originally dreamed up by Dem´s. This shows that the U.S. is between a rock and a hard place. It´s a good idea to cut but these cuts will increase redundancies in the bloated Fed budget and lead to more folks in public sector moving into the unemployed pool. Todays NFP is therefore a more than ever backwardslooking figure and does not reflect the increasing current dynamic.Any "rally" based on todays figures will be shortlived.

Widowmaker's picture

Who cares what the liars and thieves at Goldman schlepps have to say?

Really. Fuck Goldman Sacks.

Fuck every person that collects a paycheck from that fraud factory.

Boilermaker's picture

Who gives a damn?

GeneMarchbanks's picture

Uncle Sam. Or so I've been told.

DonnieD's picture

My thoughts exactly. Why do we care about what Goldman wants us to think. He should send his reports directly to Bernanke and spare the rest of us.


DaveyJones's picture

Goldman on the 666 number: Great not good

DaveyJones's picture

even Satan's losing value

odd since so many folks are buying in

iNull's picture

It's just so comical.

The world is burning to the ground. And you, YOU, have signed on to this Satanic system. And the comical thing is you look around and say "I don't understand what's happening." "I don't know what's happening."

What a circus. You see the circus tents being erected, and then are surprised when the circus comes to town. Fools. Goddamn fools.

SheepDog-One's picture

Who has signed into a satanic system?

Gert_B_Frobe's picture

My view out the Titanic's porthole says different

snowball777's picture

Oh, that's a porthole! I thought it was an aquarium.

slaughterer's picture

Archi, tell us when you enter your shorts. 

Archimedes's picture

One of my rules of investing / Trading: Never place a trade before 10:30 am.

DonnieD's picture

Don't forget to never take seriously an economic forecast from someone working at a TBTF or the government

writingsonthewall's picture

Wheels coming off? - This hasn't even been mentioned by MSM media in Britain - or anywhere else for that matter.

"The dramatic fall in the share price caused a temporary suspension in the trading of RBS shares, making it the third of Britain's major banks to have had trading halted in its shares in the last 24 hours after Lloyds Banking Group and Barclays yesterday. "


How can you just halt trading - and won't it just resume selling when it's back? I see that the share prices of these banks staged a miraculous 'recovery' (if you can call it a recovery - well going by the Governments definitions - I'd say so!)


Is this plunge protection in action? Doesn't this mean everyone will take their chance and get out - leaving the PPT holding the baby?

SheepDog-One's picture

Capital and real confidence will never form in systems as corrupt as these. The markets are dead empty, the only players in the casino are the mob bosses there to receive their free money directly from the 0% window. Its all BS.

fuu's picture

Good for +167 in the first minute.

Gert_B_Frobe's picture

We'll see about the last 30

Iriestx's picture

Why wouldn't it last all day?  In this bizzaro world, a NFP number massaged by 230k B/D adjustment is proof that the global economy fixed itself over night.

Spastica Rex's picture

Every piece of "good" data proves that past fears were unjustified. Every piece of "bad" data is spurious and should be ignored. In our world, water only flows uphill long term.

SheepDog-One's picture

Just some short covering.

docj's picture

WEll, the bounce didn't even last until 10:00 - most of the market is in the red already in spite of this "Strong Jobs Report" (at least it's "Strong" according to the Ministry of Truth - AP branch).

fuu's picture

Chart looks like a sine wave through 80 minutes. +1.55% to -1.55% and back to 0.

EDIT: Google finance summary chart that is.

iNull's picture

It's just the price of "high society." There is no "law" that applies to the elite. How long has this been going on? Oh, I don't know. A good 2,000 years at least.

dexter_morgan's picture

So when do the real (i.e. revised down) numbers come out?

fwchiro's picture

Isn't GS commenting on the NFP numbers a bit like an author critiquing his own work?

Texas Ginslinger's picture


What's with the Goldline Internation ad, which is pushed by Glenn Beck..???

Are you recommending that we buy gold from them..???

Do you endorse your advertisers..??

snowball777's picture

Do not blame TD for what you make AdSense do.

dexter_morgan's picture

google puts that shit out there, not Tyler - been looking at any PM sites? Thats why that's there.

youngman's picture

They are trying to talk it up...but I think the Europe close will set the stage for the day....CAC is up.....?????  others down.....I think bank runs this weekend in Europe...

Version 7's picture

Bank runs in the EU have been quietly ongoing for months now (Greece, Portugal, Ireland and so on) but the ECB is desperately trying to keep the zombies alive with repeated liquidity windows and buying sovereign debt.

Zedge Hero's picture

Bank runs in Europe and Bank Protests in Israel, the Global Banking Cartel is feeling the heat.

nowhereman's picture

The fact that everyone, and I do mean everyone, knows that government statistics are dubious at best, or more to the truth, outright lies only proves to me that there is no such thing as a "true" investor.

It boggles the mind that there are people willing to play this corrupt game, and yet I see daily instances of people playing at this casino as if somehow they can't get there minds around the fact that the house always wins.

P.T. Barnum was a very wise man.

snowball777's picture

It makes perfect sense, if the marks all think someone else is the mark.

Abitdodgie's picture

Most people who are still playing the market are compulsive gamblers and they will play it till it dies and takes them with it , why would you still risk your money when you can make a dumb investment in AU/AG and sit back and make lots of money , because compulsive gambling is a mental problem ( that should piss off the gamblers,please feel free to junk because you dont have a problem you have it totally under control)

Sour Grapes's picture

Look at the household survey, non-seasonally adjusted, year-over-year employment number:

Number of jobs added in one year - only 250,000

SheepDog-One's picture

And I dont even believe that...250K jobs added where? What companies are hiring big time? None that I know of at all. 

WoodMizer's picture

The porn industry still dominates internet traffic.

r101958's picture

I don't buy this number either. Here are a couple of facts....straight from the BLS pdf:

July 2010:

Civilian labor force: 153.6m   

Not in Labor Force: 84.2m

July 2011:

Civilian labor force: 153.2m   (-400k since Jul2010)

Not in Labor Force: 86.4m (+2.2m since Jul2010)

-2.6m in 12 months???

This does not even count the Birth/Death model monthly fudging.

r101958's picture

By the way, just so you all know, the 'Not in Labor Force' number increased by 374k last month alone.

Catullus's picture

The AAPL/NASDAQ just went negative. It's on.

Cassandra Syndrome's picture

Proletarian Translation - "Shite not Ok"

Cassandra Syndrome's picture

What put Skynet into the red?

digalert's picture

Mr. Market just read ZH



buzzsaw99's picture

Dig Goldman talking like it isn't all going to collapse into a heap of rubble. It's a man baby.