Goldman Previews Today's Jobs Number: "Prospects For Near-Term Improvement Look Dim"

Tyler Durden's picture

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Dick Darlington's picture

 Oct. 7 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. small businesses hired fewer
employees in Sept. than the previous month, according to the
SurePayroll small business hiring index.
     Small business hirings fell -0.18 percent in Sept. from the
previous month, while employee pay fell 0.1 percent. The index
tracks payroll data from more than 15,000 small businesses to
calculate the indexes.
                         Sept.   Aug.   July   June    May  April  March   Feb.
                          2011   2011   2011   2011   2011   2011   2011   2011
National hiring index    -3.1%  -2.9%  -2.6%  -2.3%  -2.1%  -1.8%  -1.5%   0.6%
 Midwest                 -4.0%  -3.7%  -3.7%  -3.6%  -3.4%  -2.8%  -2.2%   0.1%
 Northeast               -3.6%  -3.0%  -2.5%  -2.0%  -1.7%  -1.4% -90.1%   0.4%
 South                    1.0%   1.2%   1.3%   1.2%   1.3%   1.3%   1.2%   2.7%
 West                    -7.8%  -7.1%  -6.5%  -5.9%  -5.5%  -5.1%  -4.7%  -1.8%

Chicago bear's picture

The print will be right in the middle of the muddle.

Snidley Whipsnae's picture

"Prospects for near term improvemet look dim"

Sounds like the same guy is writing for GS and Bernanke.

oldman's picture


I am going to retire and make room for someone who needs work. I have been counting waves in the Bay of Biscay for the past five weeks, so this job is open and not too physically demanding at this time of year, but bring heavy-weather clothing because we are entering winter and the storms can be fierce.


props2009's picture

RBS says it is +60k

Sequitur's picture

Fuck the NFP, who gives a shit. Light the goddamn Greece roman candle and let the sparks ignite France, Italy, Spain.

firstdivision's picture

I'm going to wager a 100K increase. 

jmcadg's picture

So anything below 45k is actually a minus figure taking into account Verizon workers.
And an outright minus figure is catastrophic?

Europe will not be fixed. Merkel and Sarkozy meet for the 8th time! Please. 
How many times does Germany have to say no more bailouts.

Market crash required before Ben starts printing.

We can carry on dreaming, but this shaken up can that has been kicked down the road, has now been opened and they're trying to put the cola back in. It's pitiful.

Antifaschistische's picture

TPTB know they need inflation before they can get the job numbers they really want.  

Inflation lowers the real cost of labor with goods rising immediately and labor laging...

Lowering the real cost of labor will stimulate hiring...

But they're in a bind with all the blog/street level rebellion against the Fed and Wall Street.

End the Fed!


kito's picture

There are seasonal hirings already underway in our area. I wager 50,000 increase

msmith's picture

Selling a positve move in the markets as a reaction to the NFP data.  Bearish USD Index in the short term though.  The EURUSD may be preparing to resume the downtrend, but the AUDUSD may continue to correct higher.  It looks like some downside consolidation is ahead for the S&P Index but more upside should follow.

Snidley Whipsnae's picture

The US Gov is doing their best to hire people; ie, people to track every movement and utterance of every person in the US... and, probably the rest of the world. If you are seeking employment and enjoy shuffling mountains of paper and listening to private conversations of others... Why not become a paid snoop? No doubt we already have some among the posters here.

Of course, what happens to these massive programs to gather info on every last individual is that the rats begin telling lies to get a leg up on the rung, and on their rivals and competitors... Then, as happened to the Stazi in East Germany, it becomes impossible to sort the lies from real, potentially helpful intelligence.

"* In Washington and the surrounding area, 33 building complexes for top-secret intelligence work are under construction or have been built since September 2001. Together they occupy the equivalent of almost three Pentagons or 22 U.S. Capitol buildings - about 17 million square feet of space."

"* Some 1,271 government organizations and 1,931 private companies work on programs related to counterterrorism, homeland security and intelligence in about 10,000 locations across the United States."

"The top-secret world the government created in response to the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, has become so large, so unwieldy and so secretive that no one knows how much money it costs, how many people it employs, how many programs exist within it or exactly how many agencies do the same work.



These are some of the findings of a two-year investigation by The Washington Post that discovered what amounts to an alternative geography of the United States, a Top Secret America hidden from public view and lacking in thorough oversight. After nine years of unprecedented spending and growth, the result is that the system put in place to keep the United States safe is so massive that its effectiveness is impossible to determine."

"* Analysts who make sense of documents and conversations obtained by foreign and domestic spying share their judgment by publishing 50,000 intelligence reports each year - a volume so large that many are routinely ignored."

"There has been so much growth since 9/11 that getting your arms around that - not just for the CIA, for the secretary of defense - is a challenge," Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates said in an interview with The Post last week.

In the Department of Defense, where more than two-thirds of the intelligence programs reside, only a handful of senior officials - called Super Users - have the ability to even know about all the department's activities. But as two of the Super Users indicated in interviews, there is simply no way they can keep up with the nation's most sensitive work.

"I'm not going to live long enough to be briefed on everything" was how one Super User put it. The other recounted that for his initial briefing, he was escorted into a tiny, dark room, seated at a small table and told he couldn't take notes. Program after program began flashing on a screen, he said, until he yelled ''Stop!" in frustration.

"I wasn't remembering any of it," he said.

Underscoring the seriousness of these issues are the conclusions of retired Army Lt. Gen. John R. Vines, who was asked last year to review the method for tracking the Defense Department's most sensitive programs. Vines, who once commanded 145,000 troops in Iraq and is familiar with complex problems, was stunned by what he discovered.

"I'm not aware of any agency with the authority, responsibility or a process in place to coordinate all these interagency and commercial activities," he said in an interview. "The complexity of this system defies description."

shaxmatist's picture


Completely and utterly wrong prediction

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