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Goldman Raises Tomorrow's NFP Forecast From 175,000 To 200,000

Tyler Durden's picture




 

If Goldman's recent predictive track record is any indication, tomorrow's NFP will be a disaster.

Just out from the firm:

BOTTOM LINE: Jobless claims last week at 357,000, in line with consensus. In view of better employment-related indicators this week, we are raising our forecast for the March gain in nonfarm payrolls to +200,000 from +175,000 before.

 

KEY NUMBERS:

 

Initial jobless claims 357k for week of March 31 vs median forecast 355k.

 

Continuing jobless claims 3,338 for week of March 24 vs median forecast 3,350k.

 

MAIN POINTS:

 

1. Initial jobless claims eased to 357,000 the week ending March 31, from a revised 363,000 the prior week, a touch worse than consensus expectations. Continuing claims fell to 3,338,000 the week ending March 24, from a revised 3,354,000, a bit better than consensus expectations.

 

2. Given somewhat better-than-expected news from the employment-related indicators this week--including gains in both of the ISM employment indexes and a sizable increase in online help-wanted job advertising according to the Conference Board--we are raising our forecast for the increase in nonfarm payrolls in March to 200,000 from 175,000 (data released on Friday at 8.30). We continue to expect a slight drop in the unemployment rate to 8.2% from 8.3% and a 0.1% gain in average hourly earnings.

 

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Thu, 04/05/2012 - 09:13 | 2319051 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

holy crap that was funny. One of the rare instances where you only need to read the first sentence of the article.

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 13:41 | 2319053 Village Smithy
Village Smithy's picture

The squid is nervous that the PPT may not have enough dry powder for Monday.

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 09:16 | 2319056 TradingJoe
TradingJoe's picture

hah, a little "correction" and everybody gets "nervous", goes a long way to "tell" the STORY!

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 09:17 | 2319059 SeverinSlade
SeverinSlade's picture

Goldman has to sell to the muppets.

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 11:42 | 2319579 jcaz
jcaz's picture

Yep, you can bet that Goldman is short if they raised their number the day before...

Oh look- so am I....

"oh darn it, market- we got the payroll number wrong-  sowwwwy....."

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 09:18 | 2319060 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

I'm thinking that since the robots are turned off they might release a number that is not quite as massaged as the rest.

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 09:18 | 2319061 eigenvalue
eigenvalue's picture

But a miss would be bullish because it would mean the Fed would have to launch QE3 sooner than later.

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 09:22 | 2319073 SeverinSlade
SeverinSlade's picture

That was the old way of thinking.  Until we get a 10-30%+ correction, equities are now on their own and the only bullish case remaining is based on strong US e-CON-omy.

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 09:27 | 2319089 eigenvalue
eigenvalue's picture

Are you sure Ben would allow a 10-30%+ correction?

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 09:31 | 2319120 SeverinSlade
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He has to.  QE3, erm, the new QE, will not be tolerated with gas at $4+ per gallon nationally and the S&P around $1400.  Remember, inflationary policies are only used when the THREAT of deflation emerges.  The chairsatan always has to appear as a compassionate PhD attempting to "rescue" the e-CON-omy.

I personally feel that TPTB are setting Obama up for a loss in November.  News that Israel is going to wait until 2013 to attack Iran removes the distraction/excuse Obama would have for breaching the debt ceiling in September.  Breaching the debt ceiling because of a "Patriotic" war would have been a good thing.  Without said war, it is now a bad thing.  When the markets do plunge (and they will), dropping gas prices SHOULD, in theory, be good for Obama...however, a plunging S&P will be bad, as the BLS will be forced to report a (gasp) rising UI rate.  And if you throw in the Supreme Court ruling that Obamacare is unconstitutional, everything becomes a death blow for his reelection campaign (especially if he tries to ignore the Supreme Court's ruling, as he has alluded to in recent days).

Now, this can all be negated if a false flag attack is committed prior to September (which is always a possibility). 

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 09:38 | 2319147 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Yep I pretty much concur.

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 09:22 | 2319071 PaperBear
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In decades gone by wasn't this figure as high as 700,000 ?

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 09:31 | 2319114 gatorengineer
gatorengineer's picture

That was when we had the failed policies of the past.  This is the new normal.

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 09:37 | 2319142 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

Yeah, I think it was during the BUSH era.... LET'S ASK OBAMA!!

 

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 09:24 | 2319076 ss123
ss123's picture

Drudge is now reporting that Egypt fired a rocket at Isreal.

All those US soldiers coming home might want to get their boots back on.
Good for employment numbers.

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 09:29 | 2319107 Dr. No
Dr. No's picture

Why should US soldiers get their boots back on if Egypt fired a rocket at Isreal?

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 09:48 | 2319185 WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

Because that's what TPTB insist upon if anyone farts in Israel's direction.

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 09:51 | 2319198 Dr. No
Dr. No's picture

Agree.  Just wanted someone to write it (again).

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 10:31 | 2319321 Schmuck Raker
Schmuck Raker's picture

It's just as likely that the spectre of all those US troops coming home and adding to unemployment requires someone to fart in Israel's direction.

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 09:27 | 2319093 ThisIsBob
ThisIsBob's picture

Well, they think they know something. Otherwise, why take the risk of being embarrasingly wrong.

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 09:29 | 2319101 fuu
fuu's picture

HAHAHAHAHAHA!

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 09:40 | 2319153 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

GS dont care....time after time they set price targets and later its obvious they actually took the other side of the bet.

Fri, 04/06/2012 - 09:09 | 2321787 fuu
fuu's picture

BWAHAHAHAHAH!

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 09:30 | 2319111 voltaic
voltaic's picture

Maybe they just read Gallup: http://www.gallup.com/poll/153761/Unemployment-Declines-March.aspx

U.S. unemployment, as measured by Gallup without seasonal adjustment, declined to 8.4% in March from 9.1% in February, while Gallup's seasonally adjusted rate fell to 8.1% from 8.6% in February.

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 09:42 | 2319162 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Gallup takes a poll, to determine hard economic facts? lol

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 11:07 | 2319464 Chump
Chump's picture

"hard economic facts"?  lol

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 09:31 | 2319118 Hondo
Hondo's picture

I believe currently the claims number has no predictive ability

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 09:44 | 2319167 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

All meaningless anyway, reading whatever tea leaf 'data' its all depends on what the manipulators decide they want now. If they want to show 'good data', then thats what they have to roll forward with, and no QE. If they want QE, then they have to get that ball rolling now, not 'good data for a while longer then bad data for QE in a bit', no they have to take their course now.

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 10:34 | 2319173 Albertarocks
Albertarocks's picture

The whole world would be a much better place if Goldman Sachs would just shut the hell up.

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 10:04 | 2319184 JohnKozac
JohnKozac's picture
US growth of distant suburbs falls to historic low (AP)

Construction of gleaming new schools and mega-malls built in anticipation of a continued population boom is cutting back. Spacious McMansions offering the promise of homeownership to middle-class families sit abandoned or half-built. Once an escape from urban problems, suburban regions hit by foreclosures are posting bigger jumps in poverty than cities.

"Suburban housing prices may not recover in our lifetime," Shiller said

http://money.msn.com/home-loans/news.aspx?feed=AP&date=20120405&id=14961109

My former house was surrounded by pastures with roaming cows...then replaced by thousands of zero down, no doc houses....now turning into slums.

It's a sad development thanks to EZ Credit.

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 10:38 | 2319353 Schmuck Raker
Schmuck Raker's picture

The most tragic aspect, IMHO, is the destruction of so much pasture/farmland.

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 12:18 | 2319694 the grateful un...
the grateful unemployed's picture

this is work in progress, at the height of the housing boom developers were moving into exurbia, sometimes a hundred miles away from a major city like LA or SD.

local planning commissions were becoming more restrictive and there simply weren't enough large plots of land to develop, (large plots are more economical). it was easier to go into the county, where county supervisors often turned a blind eye, and took campaign money under the table to allow development without a bond for infrastructure, schools, fire, police.

the voters caught wind that they were subsidizing these developers (and the housing bubble) and they started to give the urban sprawl promoters a lot of pushback. then the county put zoning restrictions in place and made the developers pony up all the costs.

as a sidelight when Blackwater wanted to put a training facility in Potrero, in the county east of SD, they bought off the local planning commission, but the residents, all few thousand of them, promptly recalled their planning commission, reappointed a new board, and rejected the proposal. in the final outcome it went to the SD county supervisors, (they still had the final word, but they rejected the plan too, too much negative publicity) Blackwater promised jobs to the residents of Portero, but later let it slip that the jobs were low paying and they hoped to truck in Mexicans through Tecate.

by that time the urban sprawl phase and homes in these gated communities were in foreclosure, and the jobs were moving closer to the city. now with gasoline heading toward $5 there is no relief in sight for these exurbia settlements. and urban planners have gone on a tear building downtown high rises where they can stack the jobless, homeless, and moneyless masses like cordwood.

you can probably enjoy your farmland for a lot more years, and my guess is they will tear a lot of these places down, as they are too far from schools, too exposed to wildfires, and becoming hotspots of crime, too hard to police.

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 10:05 | 2319247 Mugabe
Mugabe's picture

SO I guess the muppets have real jobs now!

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 10:38 | 2319355 Dorky
Dorky's picture

GS can actually know material non-public info ahead of everyone else.

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 11:14 | 2319497 Yardfarmer
Yardfarmer's picture

does Turd Ferguson work for Goldman? man has he been waaaaayyyyyy off lately! lol.

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 12:05 | 2319647 Bartanist
Bartanist's picture

I am not thinking that people think that Goldman's predictions mean squat. So, in essence a dark throwing monkey can do the job of a $500k ANALyst ... oh wait, nevermind.

Thu, 04/05/2012 - 14:36 | 2320055 qfixxx
qfixxx's picture

I just watch this prior to every NFP report and insert Goldman for Salomon.

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