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Goldman Raises Tomorrow's NFP Forecast By 50K To 125,000

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Following today's two better than expected employment data points, it was only natural that the world's fastest revising bank would go ahead and promptly revise their forecast for tomorrow's NFP higher. Sure enough...

Revising Up Payroll Forecast; ISM Non-manufacturing Index Falls

 

1.    We are upgrading our forecast for tomorrow’s nonfarm payroll report to +125k, from +75k previously. This week has featured five better-than-expected pieces of news relating to employment: 1) a relatively robust employment index in the ISM manufacturing survey, despite weaker activity overall in the sector, 2) a substantial month-over-month increase in online job advertising, 3) a much better than expected ADP employment report, 4) slightly lower new jobless claims (although it should be noted these pertain to a time period after the June employment survey was taken), and 5) an improvement in the ISM nonmanufacturing employment index. Despite the upgrade to our payroll forecast, we still expect the unemployment rate to hold at 8.2%.

 

2.    The ISM non-manufacturing index fell to 52.1 in June from 53.7 in May, a larger decline than expected by the consensus. At its current level, the index is roughly consistent with 1.5% GDP growth. The components of the report were mixed. On the one hand, the general business activity index fell to 51.7 from 55.6 (now at the lowest level since November 2009) and the new orders index fell to 53.3 from 55.5. On the other, the employment component edged up to 52.3 from 50.8. The prices paid index

Then again, considering Goldman's recent predictive "success", we may well be in for a negative NFP print in less than 24 hours. Elsewhere, DB's Joe LaVorgna likely preparing to unleash his +500,000 revision to the world any second now.

 

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Thu, 07/05/2012 - 10:33 | 2588728 HelluvaEngineer
HelluvaEngineer's picture

Uh, so expect a complete market crash tomorrow?

Thu, 07/05/2012 - 10:37 | 2588758 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

There will be Muppet blood in the streets.

 

Thu, 07/05/2012 - 10:48 | 2588831 Harlequin001
Harlequin001's picture

So what's the point if the figure is out tomorrow?

will they still be revising it when the figure is actually announced?

Thu, 07/05/2012 - 10:54 | 2588871 Jay Gould Esq.
Jay Gould Esq.'s picture

How curiously serendipidous, the way [ Government-collated ] employment data are trending better, the closer the Election draws.

Purely coincident, no doubt.

Thu, 07/05/2012 - 11:41 | 2589081 tocointhephrase
tocointhephrase's picture

Its time to play the music, its time to light the lights

Thu, 07/05/2012 - 11:22 | 2588994 Pooper Popper
Pooper Popper's picture

What color do bankers bleed?

Thu, 07/05/2012 - 10:38 | 2588762 SHEEPFUKKER
SHEEPFUKKER's picture

Really? The day before the number? And a number that has surely already been tallied and ready to surprise on Friday? Well played GS.

Thu, 07/05/2012 - 10:34 | 2588730 Debtless
Debtless's picture

Fuck Goldman Sachs ... with a rusty pipe wrench.

Thu, 07/05/2012 - 10:44 | 2588809 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

What did that old rusty pipe wrench ever do to you to desrve such punishment?

Thu, 07/05/2012 - 10:35 | 2588733 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

OK so then NFP will be around Goldilocks 100K or so, got it.

Thu, 07/05/2012 - 10:35 | 2588740 FL_Conservative
FL_Conservative's picture

Therefore, SELL, by market close today.

Thu, 07/05/2012 - 10:35 | 2588743 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

I'm raising my NFP prediction to 47.5 jobs created or saved.

Thu, 07/05/2012 - 10:35 | 2588744 Village Smithy
Village Smithy's picture

In other words "we have an excess of DIA we need to sell, please form a line here you muppets are so lucky today."

Thu, 07/05/2012 - 10:38 | 2588763 101 years and c...
101 years and counting's picture

thats the sweet spot (for bears). keeps ben away from the printer at the aug 1 fomc and not really that good.

Thu, 07/05/2012 - 10:38 | 2588764 partimer1
partimer1's picture

This is a clear indication of a crap shoot.  You can say whatever the fuck you say, and you can change it whaever you want to change just to game the fuck of all dumbass players.

Thu, 07/05/2012 - 10:40 | 2588780 insanelysane
insanelysane's picture

Unemployment rate should fall regardless as people are falling off the rolls.  Since sheeple only look at the rate and not the data, it will be very difficult for the Bensky to QE.

Thu, 07/05/2012 - 10:40 | 2588781 Bastiat009
Bastiat009's picture

Goldman believes they were off by 75% before today. How can I trust people who admit they are off by 75%? Fortunately none of those people are in position to damage the global financial system, right?

Thu, 07/05/2012 - 11:08 | 2588944 Jake88
Jake88's picture

hey...it's not a science

Thu, 07/05/2012 - 12:06 | 2589157 TrainWreck1
TrainWreck1's picture

Someone is a glass 75% empty guy instead of a glass a quarter full guy.

Goldman will help us. Goldman cares. The recession is almost over!

 

 

I'm so giddy I feel a tingle going down my leg!

Damn, it's not a tingle, it's a trickle :(

 

Thu, 07/05/2012 - 11:14 | 2588966 Hype Alert
Hype Alert's picture

No, but apparently they have software that if were to get into the wrong hands could.

Thu, 07/05/2012 - 10:41 | 2588788 CreativeDestructor
CreativeDestructor's picture

NIRP bitchez!!!

Thu, 07/05/2012 - 10:41 | 2588789 lizzy36
lizzy36's picture

Winners and losers of higher print.

Winner:Obama.

Loser:All traders hoping for another shot of hopium from bernanke b/f the election.

By the way, not a single number but the trend that is important. And last month the trend changed as there were downward revisions of the previous 2 months. Better headline and downward revsion of last month, would continue the downard trajectory trend. Not that anyone would care, as the headline number is better.

Thu, 07/05/2012 - 10:41 | 2588791 Cursive
Cursive's picture

Beware. muppets.  Beware.

Thu, 07/05/2012 - 10:42 | 2588799 asteroids
asteroids's picture

Remember folks, the number is statistical bullshit that should not be trusted. Trust your eyes when you drive around your city. 50M people on food stamps that don't have jobs that pay well enough to feed themselves and their families. After 4 years the situation is shameful.

Thu, 07/05/2012 - 10:53 | 2588861 Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

That's what pisses me off about economists.  They'll praise a good NFP number tomorrow as "sign of a recovery".  While we're still getting underpaid, overworked, and stores all around malls and streets of America have "Everything Must Go!" signs. 

Thu, 07/05/2012 - 11:12 | 2588959 insanelysane
insanelysane's picture

You just don't understand statistics.  A positive number indicates recovery whereas a negative number is just a single point of data. 

Staples sent me a $100 off coupon on computers that cost $500 or less.  Methinks there may be too much inventory.

Thu, 07/05/2012 - 10:48 | 2588830 Meesohaawnee
Meesohaawnee's picture

i could so care less "what Goldman thinks".. any entity i dispise in my life ,, i just simply ignore. that day cant come soon enough and their  mental masturbation. We already have know data means nothing. you could print a negative 300k and bennie will rev the algos with grannies money

Thu, 07/05/2012 - 10:49 | 2588834 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Goldman having a "come to Jesus" moment or are they setting up the muppets again?  Place you bets, the casino is open.

Thu, 07/05/2012 - 10:57 | 2588885 onebir
onebir's picture

Much easier for NFP to miss now => no excuse for no QE

Thu, 07/05/2012 - 10:59 | 2588897 ejmoosa
ejmoosa's picture

I'd be more interested in what they believe the revised number for May 2012 will be.

Thu, 07/05/2012 - 11:02 | 2588916 Floordawg
Floordawg's picture

Time to buttfuck some more muppets. "Get the gimp..."

Zed: "Eenie, meanie, miney, moe. Catch a muppet by the toe..."

Thu, 07/05/2012 - 11:05 | 2588931 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

So the insignificant & totally bogus BLS number, 6 market open trading hours before being released, is changed by a degree of  +/- 66% fudge factor...

That's nice...

Thu, 07/05/2012 - 11:12 | 2588960 Hype Alert
Hype Alert's picture

All will be good until after the election.  Read the script!

Thu, 07/05/2012 - 11:25 | 2589005 MFL8240
MFL8240's picture

Sure, we believe the group that financed the election of Obama to tell us the truth.

Thu, 07/05/2012 - 11:33 | 2589039 Bold Eagle
Bold Eagle's picture

"It was merely the substitution of one piece of nonsense for another."

Thu, 07/05/2012 - 11:33 | 2589041 kiki69
kiki69's picture

hmmm last month GS predicted 125k, we had 69k...just saying...

Thu, 07/05/2012 - 12:15 | 2589187 xela2200
xela2200's picture

GS lining up the sheep for the fleecing.

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