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Goldman Says That Weak Personal Income Data Presents "Additional Risks To Out 2.5% Q3 GDP Forecast"

Tyler Durden's picture




 

The H2 economic grwoth hockeystick is rapidly becoming Kansas. To wit from Jan Hatzius: "While quarterly results for consumer spending were already known-they were published in last Friday's GDP report-the monthly pattern means that consumption heads into Q3 on a weak trend. The report therefore points to additional downside risks to our 2.5% forecast for Q3 GDP growth." As we predicted last Friday, Goldman will cut Q3 GDP to sub-2% within a few weeks and the QE3 onslaught avalanche will commence.

Full note:

BOTTOM LINE: Monthly details for personal income and spending show weak pattern of growth. Core PCE inflation softer than expected.

MAIN POINTS:
1. Nominal consumer spending declined by 0.2% (mom) in June, in contrast to consensus expectations for a small gain. In real terms consumer spending was unchanged in June, and revised figures show 0.1% declines in both May and April. While quarterly results for consumer spending were already known-they were published in last Friday's GDP report-the monthly pattern means that consumption heads into Q3 on a weak trend. The report therefore points to additional downside risks to our 2.5% forecast for Q3 GDP growth.

2. Nominal personal income increased by 0.1% (mom), also slightly less than expected. Nominal income growth has decelerated steadily since the first quarter. Real income gains were more favorable due to falling gas prices. In particular, real disposable income growth increased by 0.3% (mom) in June.

3. The core PCE price index rose by 0.1% (0.113% unrounded), or 1.3% from a year earlier. The year-over-year growth rate was unchanged from May after revisions (before revisions May's year-over-year growth rate was reported at 1.2%). The core PCE result was significantly below the level implied by its CPI and PPI inputs. The likely reason appears to be weakness in "non-market" prices (e.g. the "price" of free checking accounts). The market-based core PCE (which excludes these imputed prices) rose by 0.21% (mom).

 

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Tue, 08/02/2011 - 09:28 | 1516413 jkruffin
jkruffin's picture

USD/JPY getting ready for another lift-off towards the 78 level,  let's once again see if I get it right...BOJ claims they aren't intervening, but I say they are slowly but surely

Tue, 08/02/2011 - 14:33 | 1517682 Gold Man-Sacks
Gold Man-Sacks's picture

I never understood why is it written "USD/JPY."  If we're talking the number of yen per dollar, shouldn't "USD" be in the denominator?  

Tue, 08/02/2011 - 09:29 | 1516421 Iriestx
Iriestx's picture

0.4% Q1, a soon to be revised negative Q2 GDP and they honestly expect a 2.5% Q3 GDP? 

Tue, 08/02/2011 - 10:47 | 1516676 Bwahaha WAGFDSMB
Bwahaha WAGFDSMB's picture

You think the propaganda pushers believe their own bullshit?  The word for that, is religion.

Tue, 08/02/2011 - 09:30 | 1516422 Archimedes
Archimedes's picture

Shit is getting real. Even the pumtards at the AP and Reuters are finding it hard to spin the data.

Tue, 08/02/2011 - 09:39 | 1516456 knukles
knukles's picture

Yes, Archimedes, we're truly screwed. 
I had the exact same observatiion during the manufactured faux default crisis. 
Whether it's really how bad it is, bullshit fatigue or a combination, when the propaganda machine trips and stumbles, the whole charde comes apart.

To paraphrase Yeates, "There is no center left to hold."

Tue, 08/02/2011 - 10:03 | 1516531 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Funding for said propaganda machine is running low. Austerity cuts were needed

Tue, 08/02/2011 - 09:31 | 1516428 TaxSlave
TaxSlave's picture

Weak Personal Income Data ...

Black market growing, you curs!

 

Tue, 08/02/2011 - 09:31 | 1516429 Cleanclog
Cleanclog's picture

Recession again, just waiting for the long actual declaration with 2 Qtrs negative.  If you looked at undistorted numbers we'd have by Q3 . . . but no one shows the undistorteds.  Manipulation and medication reigns.

Tue, 08/02/2011 - 09:34 | 1516436 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

 

 

Hilsenrath, the Federal Reserve Media Mouthpiece & Leaker of record, says QE3 is not going to happen.

As in - ever.

Fed Confronts Limited Tools to Stir Economy - WSJ
Tue, 08/02/2011 - 09:39 | 1516455 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Hilsenrath: no QE3.

This is significant.

Tue, 08/02/2011 - 09:46 | 1516476 Id fight Gandhi
Id fight Gandhi's picture

Bullshit on that. Qe2 should never have happened but they did it anyway. The debt ceiling bullshit just proved matters are to maintain the status quo and ignore sound judgment in favor of keeping the rich, rich.

I think after the poor jobs report this week we will get the hints being dropped for qe3.

Next year is the big election, they're going to throw everything at it.

Tue, 08/02/2011 - 09:48 | 1516486 Mike2756
Mike2756's picture

Yeah, wait for the "strong dollar" mantra to start.

Tue, 08/02/2011 - 10:07 | 1516545 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

I agree with you there. If there's no QE3 Wall Street will have to cull 10s of thousands of jobs and downsize operations significantly with ripples. And without the juice to use to keep stocks up, their beloved S&P index would tumble hard, setting off a confidence crisis. In their mind, that would cost the Fed 10x as much to fix. There's a saying: A hundred billion of QE today is worth 10 trillion tomorrow

Tue, 08/02/2011 - 10:18 | 1516589 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

QE resulted in 1.7 trillion of UST sitting on the Fed's balance sheet.

It also fanned tremendous commodity speculation, which has really hurt Obama as inflation has become far more noticeable to end consumers now, at at time of heavy unemployment and real wage declines.

I just can't get aboard the QE3 bus because it creates far too many political liabilities during a super-election year, banks and the financial sector are going to be downsizing anyways (the culling has just begun), and I believe QE has already discredited Bernanke.

Tue, 08/02/2011 - 10:29 | 1516627 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

I totall agree. My way of putting it has always been that QE has created biflation. And yes it's reaching critical because a key aspect of it is that you don't need much headline inflation to kill the economy when incomes are declining and personal net worth is also. 

So yes, QE is poison and killing the middle class and small business

Will that be enough to stop the Fed? I doubt it. The Fed is an independent agency, not seeking re-election. It's the pawn of Wall Street and big money interests across the globe. It's become a mafia. And they can't let their big boys down, toxic as the results might be even to the president's re-election, and even to 98% of all AMericans. 

THe alternative is just too unthinkable for them: Wall Street would have to downsize big immediately and could not be counted on to support the stock market and junk bonds. That would bring us back to the brink of panic as the ugly reality set in. Nope. Push come to shove they're gonna keep their zombie banks alive

Tue, 08/02/2011 - 09:34 | 1516441 Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

Que up Bernake's QE infinity ...

Tue, 08/02/2011 - 09:35 | 1516443 Cassandra Syndrome
Cassandra Syndrome's picture

Relax folks, Jim Cramer has been on CNBC telling us that the good days are acoming. He said that once the Washington business is out of the way the average Joe will go out spending again with pent up demand. Silly me thinking this was a savage crack up boom based on artificial credit and money supply that has busted just as Mises predicted.

Tue, 08/02/2011 - 09:40 | 1516463 knukles
knukles's picture

Even a broken Jimmy is right twice a day.

Tue, 08/02/2011 - 09:51 | 1516501 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

He said that once the Washington business is out of the way the average Joe will go out spending again with pent up demand.

Only if retailers start accepting pocket lint as currency.

Tue, 08/02/2011 - 09:48 | 1516487 azengrcat
azengrcat's picture

Growing economies always have +9% unemployment, money printing, surging .gov debt, shrinking/bankrupt local governments, increasing input costs and financial oligarchs running the country. That is the American way which always leads to prosperity.

Tue, 08/02/2011 - 10:05 | 1516538 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

The official U6 rate is now 16.2% - that's according to the official data of the BLS (our government). It's also something the media never speaks of.

SGS alternative is above 23%:

Here is U3, U6 and SGS Alternative:

http://www.shadowstats.com/imgs/sgs-emp.gif?hl=ad&t=1310130408

http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/unemployment-charts

Tue, 08/02/2011 - 10:14 | 1516569 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Yes, and growing economies always have zombie banks, a stock market run by trading bots with few actual investors and 30-years of declning real incomes. 

But Jimmy's thinking cynically about how those venal Americans are gonna go shopping soon for toys they don't need and status they never had

Tue, 08/02/2011 - 10:02 | 1516521 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Sen. Bill Nelson: "we need ways to cut this public death, I mean, public debt..."  Just said on C-span

Wed, 09/14/2011 - 04:35 | 1667301 chinawholesaler
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