Goldman: "Stay Long Gold"

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Mon, 11/14/2011 - 10:27 | 1875372 DCFusor
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Or Qe3 isn't coming.  With Goldman you never know which side of their book they're talking...but it's never neutral.

Mon, 11/14/2011 - 10:31 | 1875388 Hard1
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Correct trade for the wrong reasons.  The reason to hold gold is not low interest rates, but the terrible management of debt in USA, Europe, Japan, the monetization that is coming and the confiscation of savings via deterioration of real returns.

Mon, 11/14/2011 - 10:41 | 1875417 Quadlet
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<sarc>Don't buy physical.  Just buy futures.  You're safe there... </sarc>

Mon, 11/14/2011 - 11:01 | 1875469 WonderDawg
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I think we all know the drill. Fade the Goldman call...

Mon, 11/14/2011 - 12:03 | 1875741 gmrpeabody
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I can only assume this means I should sell!?

Mon, 11/14/2011 - 12:04 | 1875746 gmrpeabody
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Perhaps they're pushing the GLD.

To what end I do not know.

Mon, 11/14/2011 - 12:13 | 1875770 Thomas
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That is an excellent notion.

Mon, 11/14/2011 - 12:43 | 1875865 gmrpeabody
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Perhaps they(and some close friends) would like to lighten up on the GLD at this time, to reposition(quietly) into physical or one of the closed end and allocated funds.

Mon, 11/14/2011 - 20:03 | 1877480 Fedophile
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But GLD is physical.

Either way deflation is coming before the printing.

Mon, 11/14/2011 - 12:21 | 1875782 Smiddywesson
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Methinks something wicked this way comes.

 

Mon, 11/14/2011 - 14:17 | 1876154 Sokhmate
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cometh

Mon, 11/14/2011 - 19:13 | 1877331 ViewfromUnderth...
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By the pricking of my thumbs,

something wicked this way comes. Bill S. Macbeth.

Bummeth.

Mon, 11/14/2011 - 22:34 | 1877933 Sokhmate
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Who'th Macbes?

I wathn't refering to anysing. Mithter.

Mon, 11/14/2011 - 11:15 | 1875463 FranSix
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Negative real interest rates have been in vogue since yr. 2002.  So has the rising price trend in gold.

http://www.NowAndFutures.com/forecast.html#predict_gold

Mon, 11/14/2011 - 12:21 | 1875754 The Big Ching-aso
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Aye.    They never give out 'free advice' to anyone including their mothers.     Then again Christmas is approaching.

Mon, 11/14/2011 - 17:11 | 1876991 LongBalls
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Get ready for another run up in gold in prep. for the smack down. The last time Goldman was this bullish gold went from $1,650 to $1,900 then back down to $1,600. This will be no different. Except maybe the entrance and exit points. Buy and hold the physical. Play the paper GLD if you have the stomach and expertise. But for GOD's sake pull profits and add to your phyz. Anything other than this and you are dancing with the devil.

Mon, 11/14/2011 - 10:27 | 1875373 bigdumbnugly
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being long gold that's about the last thing i wanted to hear.

Mon, 11/14/2011 - 10:43 | 1875426 DosZap
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  • Goldman Tells Clients To Buy COMEX Gold At $1,364.2, Raises 12 Month Gold Forecast From $1,365 To $1,650, Silver To $27.60
  • Tell me where to get both at these prices, be happy to take someoff your hands.

    Until the EU folds like a book, these pries will not return.

    Mon, 11/14/2011 - 11:12 | 1875515 goldfreak
    goldfreak's picture

    was this advice for customers they screw a lot or for customers they only screw a little?

    Mon, 11/14/2011 - 11:01 | 1875470 High Plains Drifter
    High Plains Drifter's picture

    that is no lie,  when the squid starts talking nice about the noble metal, i don't like it for sure. 

    Mon, 11/14/2011 - 10:28 | 1875374 fuu
    fuu's picture

    Shit, anyone want to buy some gold?

    Mon, 11/14/2011 - 10:32 | 1875391 kito
    kito's picture

    Goldman shorting au as we speak

    Mon, 11/14/2011 - 10:49 | 1875441 EL INDIO
    EL INDIO's picture

    In case someone is interested I speculated on Friday about a possible gold smash down scenario.

    You can find it on ZH here:

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/morgan-stanley-issues-goldman-mirror-image...

    Mon, 11/14/2011 - 11:03 | 1875479 High Plains Drifter
    High Plains Drifter's picture

    what about 2008? gold was down for the year during that time , correct?   

    Mon, 11/14/2011 - 11:10 | 1875510 Pladizow
    Pladizow's picture

    Incorrect, ended positive.

    Mon, 11/14/2011 - 11:17 | 1875536 High Plains Drifter
    High Plains Drifter's picture

    it sure didn't have that positive feeling........

    Mon, 11/14/2011 - 11:20 | 1875557 EL INDIO
    EL INDIO's picture

    Yes Gold recovered by the end of the year, but the take down occurred many months earlier.

    Anyway, I do think that scenario is not very likely to happen (although not impossible) but if I was one of the evil masters that’s what I’d do.

    Mon, 11/14/2011 - 11:38 | 1875635 ParkAveFlasher
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    I'm no trader, nor a paid "investor" of OPM, nor a gambler, nor a millionaire nor someone who pretends to be any of those.  I'm a 9-5 stiff with a family.  And a mortgage.  And a 401k that I can't seem to square myself with relying on.  I read ZH because of, well same reasons you all do, most of you.  ZH is a yippitdy little Toto tugging at the curtain of the "Wizard", I mean that as a compliment.  As the last five years of swelling prices and salaries that don't swell at the same rate sunk in I started buying PM in June with any bit of cash I could beg, borrow, or steal.  I started hunting around for insights and info on the price, the value, the market.  I came across Jim Sinclair, GATA, Turk, all the biggies and then I came across ZH, which I now read religiously.

    El Indio, I for one have been reading your posts and I don't consider them contrarian, first off, in fact, from what I've seen there are moves in price of gold of 10-20% with regularity so I agree that the expectation of smackdown comes with the expectation of further upward climb.  I haven't been watching long enough to sense the cyclical moves to back up my sense of regularity in the price movement.  I do see that there are big players making their own moves,  there is the opacity of the paper market (I don't have a degree in finance I can't fathom how you can trade something that you don't own and effect that price of something you don't own), the CME who drops margin hikes like they were pile drivers on the price of gold ... and the fact that many gold biggies seem to remind traders that the market is "violent" and "chops".  So I'm not going to down arrow your comments - in fact I am a PM bug, officially, in reality, a holder of physical and with a sense that caution with one's wealth is most important right now, especially if you do not have "wealth" to spare.

    Mon, 11/14/2011 - 11:53 | 1875699 EL INDIO
    EL INDIO's picture

    Hi ParkAveFlasher,

    You are right to be cautious and you are right to take anyone’s views with pinch of salt. Nobody knows the future. I’m a PM investor too and I’m not selling anything even if we get a huge dip. I only try to time my buying to get a better average price. Buying regularly is a good strategy, buying the big dips only is even better and that’s what I try to do. Regarding my views, I try to anticipate the worst and be prepared for it, but I only act on facts.

    I share my views to get feedback from you guys so thanks for your comment.

    Mon, 11/14/2011 - 12:34 | 1875834 pandabear01
    pandabear01's picture

    EL INDIO, Ditto on that.   My strategy exactly.  It has kept me ahead for the last 19 years!

    Mon, 11/14/2011 - 12:37 | 1875844 Smiddywesson
    Smiddywesson's picture

    What I'm seeing PAV, is diminishing returns on the smack downs.  We are going to see more of them, but there's a limit to what they can accomplish.  During the last one, they drove gold down to sub $1600 levels, but that overnight spike down to $1534 bounced right back above the $1600 level.  My guess is they came close to decoupling paper gold with physical.  A number of gold vendors experienced technical problems with their web sites at that time, and I bet it wasn't a coincidence. 

    So what I'm saying is we are likely to see more of the same, and this call by Goldman heralds its coming.  More of the same:  A big drop in prices combined with multiple margin hikes, a spike down overnight, and a bounce right back up to a range that will stay in place for weeks. 

    This is all about stalling for time so that they can prepare adequate gold reserves at the central banks (and get rid of any and all tungsten).  China is the least prepared, having more foreign currency reserves on its balance sheet than gold.  Therefore, we are seeing all the bargain gold being traded during their session, not ours.  This isn't a coincidence, because if you are trying to set up a viable monetary system based on gold, all the principal players have to be ready before you can make your move.

    Mon, 11/14/2011 - 12:55 | 1875902 ParkAveFlasher
    ParkAveFlasher's picture

    Thanks EI and SW.  This is a high-value site.  In reading, I feel like a pilot fish drafting alongside the shark but in commenting I take a bite for myself.

    Mon, 11/14/2011 - 12:13 | 1875768 The Big Ching-aso
    The Big Ching-aso's picture

     

     

    Ya know, if I were Goldman I'd start headfaking those who think they always know what they're going to do next.      For instance in this case, they could say Gold's gonna go up a lot and actually be saying exactly how it's gonna roll out.      Then when it does and most went short because they thought Goldman was too, margin calls baby, margin calls - that plus one hell of a strategy to keep everyone off balance.

    Mon, 11/14/2011 - 10:29 | 1875378 PaperBear
    PaperBear's picture

    Presumaby silver too.

    Mon, 11/14/2011 - 10:31 | 1875385 GeneMarchbanks
    GeneMarchbanks's picture

    Now that they have control over the ECB printing press I wouldn't doubt this call...

    Mon, 11/14/2011 - 10:32 | 1875393 Lmo Mutton
    Lmo Mutton's picture

    After you go long expect a slam to stop you out.

    Just the standard MO.

    Mon, 11/14/2011 - 12:41 | 1875855 Smiddywesson
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    Yes, just before a big move the first mouse gets killed.  First the shake out, then the second mouse gets the cheese.

    Mon, 11/14/2011 - 10:35 | 1875402 lairdwd
    lairdwd's picture

    I'm out for the short term deflation mode. This just confirms my sentiment.

    Mon, 11/14/2011 - 10:36 | 1875404 Bansters-in-my-...
    Bansters-in-my- feces's picture

    Can't...stop.... the.....urge.....

    FUCK YOU'S Goldman Sachs.

    I'm a gold bug all the way...(PHYSICAL)

    But when the Sach says go long,you know some naked shorting is comming up in a big way,

    Ps.

    In case I forgot to say it....

    FUCK YOU'S Goldman Sachs,&JP Morgan.

    Mon, 11/14/2011 - 10:36 | 1875407 Global Hunter
    Global Hunter's picture

    Probably means no QE3 near term so expect a big deflationary crash to hit equities and commodities very soon, they're shorting into the crash/deflationary event.  When they tell clients to go short that's when QE3 is near term, in my humble opinion.

    Mon, 11/14/2011 - 10:41 | 1875419 DosZap
    DosZap's picture

    Nope their at least as smart as we are, and they know wht we know.

    The Euro is going down, and the dollar will be the GO TO unsafe haven of fools yet again, and the metals will drop 20-25%+.

    Safe refuge, my ass.

     

    Mon, 11/14/2011 - 10:44 | 1875427 SheepDog-One
    SheepDog-One's picture

    For the amount of printing already done, I believe gold is pretty safe around here. Gold hasnt priced in anything, not by my view anyway and is likely underpriced no matter if theres no future printing, that in itself wont cause gold to drop.

    Mon, 11/14/2011 - 10:56 | 1875460 Global Hunter
    Global Hunter's picture

    If I have excess cash at the end of the week I will buy physical, beside land its the only thing I can guarantee will have some value in 2012 and beyond 

    Mon, 11/14/2011 - 13:29 | 1876017 DoChenRollingBearing
    DoChenRollingBearing's picture

    ^---  + 1 and yes to all you guys above.

    That is my strategy as well.  I buy gold when I have extra money, the price does not matter.  Goldman's call I ignore, but it may be a short-term bearish indicator.  Remember, GS makes NO MONEY if their customers go out and buy gold...

    Mon, 11/14/2011 - 11:13 | 1875517 J 457
    J 457's picture

    In this political environment, there can be no QE3 with the S&P at 1,260 range and WTI at $99.  If some EU nations default, which most all concede that will happen, the USD will surge.  Then US will have opportunity to further QE as commodity prices relax.  Long-term gold/silver/oil UP.  Near-term 0-3 months, they will drop 15-25%.  The Santa rally will not happen and Jan will be a down month as well. 

    Mon, 11/14/2011 - 12:45 | 1875873 Smiddywesson
    Smiddywesson's picture

    The Euro is going down, and the dollar will be the GO TO unsafe haven of fools yet again, and the metals will drop 20-25%+.

    Safe refuge, my ass.

    If I were a central banksta, that's when I would use multiple margin hikes and assault gold prices.  Keep your powder dry, buying opportunities are on the horizon.

    Mon, 11/14/2011 - 10:47 | 1875439 Raynja
    Raynja's picture

    The central banks won't do anything until the markets beg for help. They have to be invited thru the door before they can consume you.

    Mon, 11/14/2011 - 10:36 | 1875410 tmosley
    tmosley's picture

    COMEX gold to zero, then.

    I've been saying that for a while.

    Physical only, guys.  When all this paper crap collapses, it will force a shift of purchasing power from those who own paper to those who own physical gold and silver.  It's like having two balloons connected by a sealed valve.  One is full, the other empty.  when the valve is opened, the air moves from one side to the other, bringing the air pressure/price to equilibrium.  Even better, the first balloon is under a pneumatic press, and will force ALL of the air into the other side.  This will happen with the gold and silver markets at the very least, and may happen with many more markets as gold and silver return to their role as currency, snatching back that power from an overinflated paper economy.

    Mon, 11/14/2011 - 10:40 | 1875416 bob_dabolina
    bob_dabolina's picture

    Did you hear about Celente? 

    Mon, 11/14/2011 - 10:45 | 1875429 Comay Mierda
    Comay Mierda's picture

    feel bad for the guy, he is one of many that lost money with the MFGlobal collapse. I hope he's buying phys now

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