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Goldman: "Stay Long Gold"

Tyler Durden's picture




 

For what it's worth, Goldman likes gold. "Consumers: We expect gold prices to continue to climb in 2011 given the current low level of US real interest rates. Further, with our US economics team now forecasting slower US economic growth in 2011 and 2012, we expect US real interest rates to remain lower for longer, supporting higher gold prices through 2012. Consequently, we recommend near-dated consumer hedges in gold through 2012. Producers: With gold prices expected to continue to climb through 2012, we find hedging opportunities less attractive for gold producers at this time." In other news, Goldman also likes Silver, Copper, Zinc, WTI and Brent. In other words: QE3 is coming.

Details on Gold...

Trading recommendations

Rolling long Gold: Buy December 2012 COMEX Gold (initial value of $1,800.5/toz, current gain $423.9/toz)

We expect gold prices to continue to climb in 2011 and 2012 given the current low level of US real interest rates, and as a result recommend a long gold position. With expiration approaching, we are rolling our outstanding long Dec-11 COMEX gold trade recommendation, entered on October 11, 2010 with an initial value of $1,364.2/toz and a current gain of $423.9/toz, into a long Dec-12 COMEX gold future position with a reference price of $1,800.5/toz.

and Silver

Over the long run, silver prices tend to track gold prices. Thus, our silver forecast reflects the historical ratio to gold.

and Copper

Long Copper: Buy June 2012 LME copper (initial price $8,804/mt, current loss $1,153/mt)

Although our long copper position opened in May 2011 remains substantially under water, our 12-mo copper price target of $9,500/mt suggests substantial upside from current depressed levels. We caution that concerns about the European sovereign debt problems and slowing economic growth are likely to continue to overhang the market in the near term. However, we emphasize that EM-led global economic growth, combined with material disappointments in copper production on weather disruptions, labor unrest and declining ore grades, suggest a continued deficit in the copper market in 2012. Further, we maintain that a potentially powerful upside catalyst still largely lies ahead in China should policymakers convincingly shift to an easier stance and/or should lower prices increasingly entice Chinese buyers back into the market. Thus, we continue to recommend establishing long positions in copper, especially on sentiment-driven short-term dips.

and this being Goldman, of course, Brent and WTI:

Long NYMEX WTI December 2012 contracts (initial price $90.79/bbl. Current gain $5.93/bbl)

We recommend a long position in the NYMEX WTI December 2012 contract, as the clearing of the surplus at Cushing has reduced the risk of breaching the storage capacity at Cushing and we expect the upcoming rail capacity that comes on line in 1H12 to help clear the crude oil surplus in the Midwest, pushing WTI prices closer to Brent prices.

Long ICE Brent July 2012 position (initial price $105.16/bbl, current gain $2.93/bbl including loss on original position of $1.95/bbl).

We have pulled the long position in the ICE Brent December 2012 contract forward. With the timespreads in Brent now moving more with concern over European debt than prompt Brent crude oil prices, the ICE Brent July 2012 position is closer to the tight physical  crude oil markets which we expect will be less affected by flare-ups of concern over European debt, and which we expect will tighten further in 1H12.

full report:

GS 11.14

 

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Mon, 11/14/2011 - 10:27 | 1875372 DCFusor
DCFusor's picture

Or Qe3 isn't coming.  With Goldman you never know which side of their book they're talking...but it's never neutral.

Mon, 11/14/2011 - 10:31 | 1875388 Hard1
Hard1's picture

Correct trade for the wrong reasons.  The reason to hold gold is not low interest rates, but the terrible management of debt in USA, Europe, Japan, the monetization that is coming and the confiscation of savings via deterioration of real returns.

Mon, 11/14/2011 - 10:41 | 1875417 Quadlet
Quadlet's picture

<sarc>Don't buy physical.  Just buy futures.  You're safe there... </sarc>

Mon, 11/14/2011 - 11:01 | 1875469 WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

I think we all know the drill. Fade the Goldman call...

Mon, 11/14/2011 - 12:03 | 1875741 gmrpeabody
gmrpeabody's picture

I can only assume this means I should sell!?

Mon, 11/14/2011 - 12:04 | 1875746 gmrpeabody
gmrpeabody's picture

Perhaps they're pushing the GLD.

To what end I do not know.

Mon, 11/14/2011 - 12:13 | 1875770 Thomas
Thomas's picture

That is an excellent notion.

Mon, 11/14/2011 - 12:43 | 1875865 gmrpeabody
gmrpeabody's picture

Perhaps they(and some close friends) would like to lighten up on the GLD at this time, to reposition(quietly) into physical or one of the closed end and allocated funds.

Mon, 11/14/2011 - 20:03 | 1877480 Fedophile
Fedophile's picture

But GLD is physical.

Either way deflation is coming before the printing.

Mon, 11/14/2011 - 12:21 | 1875782 Smiddywesson
Smiddywesson's picture

Methinks something wicked this way comes.

 

Mon, 11/14/2011 - 14:17 | 1876154 Sokhmate
Sokhmate's picture

cometh

Mon, 11/14/2011 - 19:13 | 1877331 ViewfromUnderth...
ViewfromUndertheBridge's picture

By the pricking of my thumbs,

something wicked this way comes. Bill S. Macbeth.

Bummeth.

Mon, 11/14/2011 - 22:34 | 1877933 Sokhmate
Sokhmate's picture

Who'th Macbes?

I wathn't refering to anysing. Mithter.

Mon, 11/14/2011 - 11:15 | 1875463 FranSix
FranSix's picture

Negative real interest rates have been in vogue since yr. 2002.  So has the rising price trend in gold.

http://www.NowAndFutures.com/forecast.html#predict_gold

Mon, 11/14/2011 - 12:21 | 1875754 The Big Ching-aso
The Big Ching-aso's picture

 

 

Aye.    They never give out 'free advice' to anyone including their mothers.     Then again Christmas is approaching.

Mon, 11/14/2011 - 17:11 | 1876991 LongBalls
LongBalls's picture

Get ready for another run up in gold in prep. for the smack down. The last time Goldman was this bullish gold went from $1,650 to $1,900 then back down to $1,600. This will be no different. Except maybe the entrance and exit points. Buy and hold the physical. Play the paper GLD if you have the stomach and expertise. But for GOD's sake pull profits and add to your phyz. Anything other than this and you are dancing with the devil.

Mon, 11/14/2011 - 10:27 | 1875373 bigdumbnugly
bigdumbnugly's picture

being long gold that's about the last thing i wanted to hear.

Mon, 11/14/2011 - 10:43 | 1875426 DosZap
DosZap's picture
  • Goldman Tells Clients To Buy COMEX Gold At $1,364.2, Raises 12 Month Gold Forecast From $1,365 To $1,650, Silver To $27.60
  • Tell me where to get both at these prices, be happy to take someoff your hands.

    Until the EU folds like a book, these pries will not return.

    Mon, 11/14/2011 - 11:12 | 1875515 goldfreak
    goldfreak's picture

    was this advice for customers they screw a lot or for customers they only screw a little?

    Mon, 11/14/2011 - 11:01 | 1875470 High Plains Drifter
    High Plains Drifter's picture

    that is no lie,  when the squid starts talking nice about the noble metal, i don't like it for sure. 

    Mon, 11/14/2011 - 10:28 | 1875374 fuu
    fuu's picture

    Shit, anyone want to buy some gold?

    Mon, 11/14/2011 - 10:32 | 1875391 kito
    kito's picture

    Goldman shorting au as we speak

    Mon, 11/14/2011 - 10:49 | 1875441 EL INDIO
    EL INDIO's picture

    In case someone is interested I speculated on Friday about a possible gold smash down scenario.

    You can find it on ZH here:

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/morgan-stanley-issues-goldman-mirror-image...

    Mon, 11/14/2011 - 11:03 | 1875479 High Plains Drifter
    High Plains Drifter's picture

    what about 2008? gold was down for the year during that time , correct?   

    Mon, 11/14/2011 - 11:10 | 1875510 Pladizow
    Pladizow's picture

    Incorrect, ended positive.

    Mon, 11/14/2011 - 11:17 | 1875536 High Plains Drifter
    High Plains Drifter's picture

    it sure didn't have that positive feeling........

    Mon, 11/14/2011 - 11:20 | 1875557 EL INDIO
    EL INDIO's picture

    Yes Gold recovered by the end of the year, but the take down occurred many months earlier.

    Anyway, I do think that scenario is not very likely to happen (although not impossible) but if I was one of the evil masters that’s what I’d do.

    Mon, 11/14/2011 - 11:38 | 1875635 ParkAveFlasher
    ParkAveFlasher's picture

    I'm no trader, nor a paid "investor" of OPM, nor a gambler, nor a millionaire nor someone who pretends to be any of those.  I'm a 9-5 stiff with a family.  And a mortgage.  And a 401k that I can't seem to square myself with relying on.  I read ZH because of, well same reasons you all do, most of you.  ZH is a yippitdy little Toto tugging at the curtain of the "Wizard", I mean that as a compliment.  As the last five years of swelling prices and salaries that don't swell at the same rate sunk in I started buying PM in June with any bit of cash I could beg, borrow, or steal.  I started hunting around for insights and info on the price, the value, the market.  I came across Jim Sinclair, GATA, Turk, all the biggies and then I came across ZH, which I now read religiously.

    El Indio, I for one have been reading your posts and I don't consider them contrarian, first off, in fact, from what I've seen there are moves in price of gold of 10-20% with regularity so I agree that the expectation of smackdown comes with the expectation of further upward climb.  I haven't been watching long enough to sense the cyclical moves to back up my sense of regularity in the price movement.  I do see that there are big players making their own moves,  there is the opacity of the paper market (I don't have a degree in finance I can't fathom how you can trade something that you don't own and effect that price of something you don't own), the CME who drops margin hikes like they were pile drivers on the price of gold ... and the fact that many gold biggies seem to remind traders that the market is "violent" and "chops".  So I'm not going to down arrow your comments - in fact I am a PM bug, officially, in reality, a holder of physical and with a sense that caution with one's wealth is most important right now, especially if you do not have "wealth" to spare.

    Mon, 11/14/2011 - 11:53 | 1875699 EL INDIO
    EL INDIO's picture

    Hi ParkAveFlasher,

    You are right to be cautious and you are right to take anyone’s views with pinch of salt. Nobody knows the future. I’m a PM investor too and I’m not selling anything even if we get a huge dip. I only try to time my buying to get a better average price. Buying regularly is a good strategy, buying the big dips only is even better and that’s what I try to do. Regarding my views, I try to anticipate the worst and be prepared for it, but I only act on facts.

    I share my views to get feedback from you guys so thanks for your comment.

    Mon, 11/14/2011 - 12:34 | 1875834 pandabear01
    pandabear01's picture

    EL INDIO, Ditto on that.   My strategy exactly.  It has kept me ahead for the last 19 years!

    Mon, 11/14/2011 - 12:37 | 1875844 Smiddywesson
    Smiddywesson's picture

    What I'm seeing PAV, is diminishing returns on the smack downs.  We are going to see more of them, but there's a limit to what they can accomplish.  During the last one, they drove gold down to sub $1600 levels, but that overnight spike down to $1534 bounced right back above the $1600 level.  My guess is they came close to decoupling paper gold with physical.  A number of gold vendors experienced technical problems with their web sites at that time, and I bet it wasn't a coincidence. 

    So what I'm saying is we are likely to see more of the same, and this call by Goldman heralds its coming.  More of the same:  A big drop in prices combined with multiple margin hikes, a spike down overnight, and a bounce right back up to a range that will stay in place for weeks. 

    This is all about stalling for time so that they can prepare adequate gold reserves at the central banks (and get rid of any and all tungsten).  China is the least prepared, having more foreign currency reserves on its balance sheet than gold.  Therefore, we are seeing all the bargain gold being traded during their session, not ours.  This isn't a coincidence, because if you are trying to set up a viable monetary system based on gold, all the principal players have to be ready before you can make your move.

    Mon, 11/14/2011 - 12:55 | 1875902 ParkAveFlasher
    ParkAveFlasher's picture

    Thanks EI and SW.  This is a high-value site.  In reading, I feel like a pilot fish drafting alongside the shark but in commenting I take a bite for myself.

    Mon, 11/14/2011 - 12:13 | 1875768 The Big Ching-aso
    The Big Ching-aso's picture

     

     

    Ya know, if I were Goldman I'd start headfaking those who think they always know what they're going to do next.      For instance in this case, they could say Gold's gonna go up a lot and actually be saying exactly how it's gonna roll out.      Then when it does and most went short because they thought Goldman was too, margin calls baby, margin calls - that plus one hell of a strategy to keep everyone off balance.

    Mon, 11/14/2011 - 10:29 | 1875378 PaperBear
    PaperBear's picture

    Presumaby silver too.

    Mon, 11/14/2011 - 10:31 | 1875385 GeneMarchbanks
    GeneMarchbanks's picture

    Now that they have control over the ECB printing press I wouldn't doubt this call...

    Mon, 11/14/2011 - 10:32 | 1875393 Lmo Mutton
    Lmo Mutton's picture

    After you go long expect a slam to stop you out.

    Just the standard MO.

    Mon, 11/14/2011 - 12:41 | 1875855 Smiddywesson
    Smiddywesson's picture

    Yes, just before a big move the first mouse gets killed.  First the shake out, then the second mouse gets the cheese.

    Mon, 11/14/2011 - 10:35 | 1875402 lairdwd
    lairdwd's picture

    I'm out for the short term deflation mode. This just confirms my sentiment.

    Mon, 11/14/2011 - 10:36 | 1875404 Bansters-in-my-...
    Bansters-in-my- feces's picture

    Can't...stop.... the.....urge.....

    FUCK YOU'S Goldman Sachs.

    I'm a gold bug all the way...(PHYSICAL)

    But when the Sach says go long,you know some naked shorting is comming up in a big way,

    Ps.

    In case I forgot to say it....

    FUCK YOU'S Goldman Sachs,&JP Morgan.

    Mon, 11/14/2011 - 10:36 | 1875407 Global Hunter
    Global Hunter's picture

    Probably means no QE3 near term so expect a big deflationary crash to hit equities and commodities very soon, they're shorting into the crash/deflationary event.  When they tell clients to go short that's when QE3 is near term, in my humble opinion.

    Mon, 11/14/2011 - 10:41 | 1875419 DosZap
    DosZap's picture

    Nope their at least as smart as we are, and they know wht we know.

    The Euro is going down, and the dollar will be the GO TO unsafe haven of fools yet again, and the metals will drop 20-25%+.

    Safe refuge, my ass.

     

    Mon, 11/14/2011 - 10:44 | 1875427 SheepDog-One
    SheepDog-One's picture

    For the amount of printing already done, I believe gold is pretty safe around here. Gold hasnt priced in anything, not by my view anyway and is likely underpriced no matter if theres no future printing, that in itself wont cause gold to drop.

    Mon, 11/14/2011 - 10:56 | 1875460 Global Hunter
    Global Hunter's picture

    If I have excess cash at the end of the week I will buy physical, beside land its the only thing I can guarantee will have some value in 2012 and beyond 

    Mon, 11/14/2011 - 13:29 | 1876017 DoChenRollingBearing
    DoChenRollingBearing's picture

    ^---  + 1 and yes to all you guys above.

    That is my strategy as well.  I buy gold when I have extra money, the price does not matter.  Goldman's call I ignore, but it may be a short-term bearish indicator.  Remember, GS makes NO MONEY if their customers go out and buy gold...

    Mon, 11/14/2011 - 11:13 | 1875517 J 457
    J 457's picture

    In this political environment, there can be no QE3 with the S&P at 1,260 range and WTI at $99.  If some EU nations default, which most all concede that will happen, the USD will surge.  Then US will have opportunity to further QE as commodity prices relax.  Long-term gold/silver/oil UP.  Near-term 0-3 months, they will drop 15-25%.  The Santa rally will not happen and Jan will be a down month as well. 

    Mon, 11/14/2011 - 12:45 | 1875873 Smiddywesson
    Smiddywesson's picture

    The Euro is going down, and the dollar will be the GO TO unsafe haven of fools yet again, and the metals will drop 20-25%+.

    Safe refuge, my ass.

    If I were a central banksta, that's when I would use multiple margin hikes and assault gold prices.  Keep your powder dry, buying opportunities are on the horizon.

    Mon, 11/14/2011 - 10:47 | 1875439 Raynja
    Raynja's picture

    The central banks won't do anything until the markets beg for help. They have to be invited thru the door before they can consume you.

    Mon, 11/14/2011 - 10:36 | 1875410 tmosley
    tmosley's picture

    COMEX gold to zero, then.

    I've been saying that for a while.

    Physical only, guys.  When all this paper crap collapses, it will force a shift of purchasing power from those who own paper to those who own physical gold and silver.  It's like having two balloons connected by a sealed valve.  One is full, the other empty.  when the valve is opened, the air moves from one side to the other, bringing the air pressure/price to equilibrium.  Even better, the first balloon is under a pneumatic press, and will force ALL of the air into the other side.  This will happen with the gold and silver markets at the very least, and may happen with many more markets as gold and silver return to their role as currency, snatching back that power from an overinflated paper economy.

    Mon, 11/14/2011 - 10:40 | 1875416 bob_dabolina
    bob_dabolina's picture

    Did you hear about Celente? 

    Mon, 11/14/2011 - 10:45 | 1875429 Comay Mierda
    Comay Mierda's picture

    feel bad for the guy, he is one of many that lost money with the MFGlobal collapse. I hope he's buying phys now

    Mon, 11/14/2011 - 10:50 | 1875445 bob_dabolina
    bob_dabolina's picture

    I think the irony is kind of funny. For a guy who is against paper to be caught up in MF global with paper gold was too much.

    Mon, 11/14/2011 - 11:06 | 1875494 High Plains Drifter
    High Plains Drifter's picture

    this guy gets paid to go around talking about the end of the world scenerios and there he is getting caught up in some place he was not supposed to be ...........weird if you ask me.......

    Mon, 11/14/2011 - 11:13 | 1875518 Comay Mierda
    Comay Mierda's picture

    he's been right way more than he's been wrong, so give him some credit. but it is odd that he got caught with this MF bull shit

    Mon, 11/14/2011 - 11:18 | 1875542 High Plains Drifter
    High Plains Drifter's picture

    yeh like a broken clock, he is right occasionally. he is about on the same level as robert prechter if you ask me.........

    Mon, 11/14/2011 - 11:20 | 1875551 bob_dabolina
    bob_dabolina's picture

    The captain of the Titanic was right more than he was wrong as well but that one time he was wrong was a doozy

    Mon, 11/14/2011 - 12:01 | 1875734 ali-ali-al-qomfri
    ali-ali-al-qomfri's picture

    3 rights make a left

    Mon, 11/14/2011 - 11:14 | 1875522 High Plains Drifter
    High Plains Drifter's picture

    since he and alex jones seem to be on the same page, maybe he can get on alex bullhorn jone's radio program and explain this unfolding event to the lemmings out in flyover country.  this guy had no business dealing with mf global with his client's money especially with the track record of this asshole corzine.....hell, celente lives in new york which is of course right next to jersey. did he ever read anything bad about corzine when he was the gov?  this is pure bullshit........

    Mon, 11/14/2011 - 10:52 | 1875451 DosZap
    DosZap's picture

    Comay,

    Mr. I have it all figured out, screwed himself.

    Buying paper Gold limited his risk(so he thought), for years he's been preaching gold, and silver..............recession, depression, Americas done, gone.

    And he invests in the only thing that can save his ass-ets,in PAPER?.

    Celente deserves exactly what he got, when you think you OWN gold & sliver, and do not take possession,you are asking for it.

    Celente of ALL people should have known better.

    Mon, 11/14/2011 - 11:09 | 1875509 High Plains Drifter
    High Plains Drifter's picture

    maybe this dipshit should not show his face around alternative news media for a while. doing the very thing he tells others not to do and then he loses all of this client's money doing it.  what a jerk...........if i had any faith in this guy, which i didn't (and that is another story) i would be highly pissed off at him right now. this proves without a shadow of a doubt the guy is a bullshit artist.

    Mon, 11/14/2011 - 11:14 | 1875521 bernorange
    bernorange's picture

    I don't think any MF Global customers deserved what happened to them.  That said, Celente gets zero sympathy for his apparent hypocrisy in touting gold and holding paper.

    Mon, 11/14/2011 - 13:36 | 1876035 DoChenRollingBearing
    DoChenRollingBearing's picture

    DosZap, bernorange,

    Celente deserved his fate by betting om paper while preaching gold.  MF Global customers of course did NOT deserve theirs, but, it is up to each of us to do our own due diligence about those with whom we place our money.  I did not even know that Corzine, Biggest POS on Planet Earth TM, was running MF Global.  But, after running NJ into the ground, the rat had to go somewhere...

    Mon, 11/14/2011 - 10:39 | 1875415 SHEEPFUKKER
    SHEEPFUKKER's picture

    I think the headline was "stay long Goldman". 

    Mon, 11/14/2011 - 10:41 | 1875418 Shit Bag
    Shit Bag's picture

    This means they're dumping their stuff expecting the bear market to continue?

    Mon, 11/14/2011 - 10:42 | 1875420 Gief Gold Plox
    Gief Gold Plox's picture

    Shit! I was thinking of getting more Au soon, but seeing GS advertise it I'm gonna wait. There's something off about doing what the squid approves of.

    Mon, 11/14/2011 - 10:42 | 1875423 Comay Mierda
    Comay Mierda's picture

    I wont believe a word any of these fuckers say about gold until they expose the fractional reserve ponzi that is the paper gold market

    Mon, 11/14/2011 - 10:43 | 1875425 bill1102inf
    bill1102inf's picture

    And hence the price setting method for so called 'spot'

    Mon, 11/14/2011 - 10:43 | 1875424 LawsofPhysics
    LawsofPhysics's picture

    Physical assets of all kinds people.  All paper going to zero, period.  I was wondering why the only two venture capital guys I knew were buying up land (not housing or traditional real estate, LAND) and mineral rights back in 2009.  These same two guys have homes on islands in the Caribbean with live-in security and servants.  Lots of things starting to make sense now.

    Mon, 11/14/2011 - 10:47 | 1875440 DosZap
    DosZap's picture

    LawsofPhysics

    I was wondering why the only two venture capital guys I knew were buying up land (not housing or traditional real estate, LAND) and mineral rights back in 2009.

    Let's see how long they get to KEEP IT.

    Mon, 11/14/2011 - 11:22 | 1875523 LawsofPhysics
    LawsofPhysics's picture

    As a former ARMY AMEDD medic and having met some of the members of their security teams, my guess is that they will do fine.  Just like in any business or profession, there are professionals who are really really good at what they do.  It may be fun to listen to some red-necks or inner city gang bangers rant about "revolution", but the truth of the matter is that the "revolution" is already being planned, and the professional killers are handling it, but then again, there always needs to be fodder for the sheeple.  New world order, same old lies, hedge accordingly.

    Mon, 11/14/2011 - 12:45 | 1875833 The Big Ching-aso
    The Big Ching-aso's picture

     

     

    Lemme just say something here about the 'permanency of security professionals' and such.    There is no security professional that can't be bought-out or covertly coerced - one way or the other.    Those same professionals if push came to shove will turn on their masters if necessary to save their own skin - and especially that of their family.

    Blood is thicker than water to coin that old saying and a lot thicker than devalued worthless cash if that fiat-event should happen.     If it were me, it would only be direct-DNA family that surrounded and protected my enclave whenever possible.      The smartest of the big shots you just described don't have significant looking enclaves to begin with.   That just attracts them as targets.    The smartest ones always use whenever possible other people's significant enclaves and they don't stay there for long at any given time either.   Unless your boys are akin to big league drug lords with interior government military bought off protection, your 'smart' boys are fucking sitting ducks private high-caliber security or not, in another country or not.     And that is ultimately dumb.     If you're not rich or connected enough don't play into that game of 'feeling' safe.        So are they really secure?

    Trust no one - particularly outside of your own blood.

    Mon, 11/14/2011 - 15:22 | 1876415 Smiddywesson
    Smiddywesson's picture

    Let's see how long they get to KEEP IT.

    Judging from the example of the fall of the Soviet Union, the rich and powerful have no problem at all in weathering these storms.  In fact, it makes life cheap for the little people, so the wealthy become even more powerful.

    Please junk me for saying so, but I fear it is true.

    Mon, 11/14/2011 - 10:49 | 1875443 Occam's Moistur...
    Occam&#039;s Moisture Strip's picture

    Kinda related to being long gold-- I have some $$ for my kids' college savings but I don't want to be all sheeplike and go the ESA/529 route, so would allocating it to physical PMs (100oz silver bars and/or 1oz krugs, etc) be a good idea?

    It'll be ~13 years before my oldest is college age so surely we'll see a crash/ monetary restructuring by then which would validate (and reward) this kind of unorthodox college savings plan, yeah?

    Sorry for a crappy first post. Will add value next time, pinky swear.

    Mon, 11/14/2011 - 11:02 | 1875471 The Grip
    The Grip's picture

    @Occam's:

    Another question to ask is: Assuming a crash/monetary restructuring occurs during the next 13 years, which many on ZH see as rather likely, what will the effect of this event (event set) have on the value of a college education?

     

    Mon, 11/14/2011 - 11:16 | 1875531 LawsofPhysics
    LawsofPhysics's picture

    Excellent point, might be better to learn a tradable skill or teach your kids how to manage rental or agricultural property.

    Mon, 11/14/2011 - 11:35 | 1875624 Occam's Moistur...
    Occam&#039;s Moisture Strip's picture

     Wow, great point-- I didn't even think to assess the impact of such a monetary restructuring on the current educational regime, which as you imply would definitely be significant.

    Thank you.

    Mon, 11/14/2011 - 11:02 | 1875476 DosZap
    DosZap's picture

    Occams,

    WAIT until the takedown, and load up.( the EU/Euro is dead meat, and this will chase Europeans into a just as stupid dollar flight, and Treasuries.(Safe have crock)

    The $ will go up to the upper  80's-90's, and gold will drop like a rock.

    I would not by here, chasing the price will get you screwed every time.Unless it gets to under $1,600.00 I would not be a buyer again.

    Physical, in your possession or where you can get to it.( IMHO, and for what it's worth).

    Mon, 11/14/2011 - 11:35 | 1875625 Think for yourself
    Think for yourself's picture

    Dollar cost averaging. Of course the game is rigged but as we all should know by now that a chaotic system on which artificial stability is imposed only becomes more subject to imprevisible volatility. If the price drops at 1500$ will we be able to find any physical without massive premiums? What if Goldman is anticipating the paper price/physical disconnection that has been discussed time and time again as the whole paper game becomes more transparent?

    Don't listen to me too much; I'm broke-ass and don't pretend to be a good money manager. However, I've found that I get enough security through buying 1/2 an oz every time that I can afford it without spending more than 50% of my savings. Doesn't matter much if price is up or down when you understand that a year more will inevitably take it much higher and that you buy it with the goal of sitting on it.

    Last time I bought gold was at 1800$. I didn't care that the price dropped way back after rising to 1950; I understand that this is just a temporary dive. I was only sad that I didn't have enough dough to enjoy the new lows ;)

    Mon, 11/14/2011 - 10:51 | 1875449 ziggy59
    ziggy59's picture

    Perception Deception...its the distant distant cousin to Conjunction Function

    so does past performance suggest future results??  with AuManSacks..it means they are doing the oppoite they tell their clients..

     

    Mon, 11/14/2011 - 16:36 | 1876829 WmMcK
    WmMcK's picture

    Conjunction junction, what's your function? -- sorry couldn't resist.

    Mon, 11/14/2011 - 11:04 | 1875455 bill1102inf
    bill1102inf's picture

    You still think your going to get rich... but your not.

    Gold is NOT money, it can be exchanged for money.  Fiat is as good as gold, well, right up until its NOT, and then whatever fiat their is, is as good as gold again.  You see, its preposterous to think that in a USA or global 'reset' countries would back their fiat, well by anything other than 'The ability of the government to collect revenue via taxes'.  The only CHOICE governments will have is whether or not to issue fake DEBT based currency like we do now, at our peril, or issue real money. (NON DEBT BASED)

     

    Imagine this happens next week. Only debt ridden countries will need to reset and re issue currency. So that leaves out the middle east and China.  One might think that other countries would not accept new USD .  One might also think that they might not want to trade with the US or demand something silly like gold for payment.  Well, here is the deal.

     

    Any country that WANTS TO DO BUSINESS with the USA will ACCEPT whatever WE want them to.  Or they can starve to death, since we feed the world.  Therefore, American blue or red dollars or whatever they want to print will be accepted worldwide instantaneously.

    Remember, trade works both ways, and the government, not supply and demand sets the price on things like 'gold'.  A new currency would have the price of gold extremely low, but compared to the limited amount of new currency.

    Couple that with the confiscation of all physical, and gold horders are going to wish they had gone on vacation with the USD they spent on their shiny metal.

     

    Things will be BETTER here, but the same in places like Somalia, Nigeria, Zimbabwe. Here is why. Zimbabwe produces, well, NOTHING, and unlike their cousins, Saudi Arabia are not lucky enough to have massive oil reserves beneath their feet, and therefore a massive influx of USD.  So, no matter how many times Z resets, the entire country will never be worth more than 1000 acres of garbage dump land in the US.  

     

    You see, China could easily do exactly the same thing America had done in the past. The problem, is that 1 Billion people suddenly driving cars, etc etc will use up the worlds (and CHINAs) resources so quickly that even those commie bastards won't do it.

     

    Until the worlds energy problem is solved that is. Because that is a human GAME CHANGER.  China, is using German Invented, US improved technology to create LFTR's on  a massive scale.  Thats right folks, it will be CHINA who leads the world in clean, safe, renewable energy into the future. And the country that controls the worlds energy, well, controls the world.

     

    Mon, 11/14/2011 - 11:07 | 1875497 fonzanoon
    fonzanoon's picture

    to your point if the country that controls the world is importing commodities and are a huge net buyer of metals then maybe that says something.

    Mon, 11/14/2011 - 11:21 | 1875559 LawsofPhysics
    LawsofPhysics's picture

    How does India trading gold for oil fly in the face of his points?  What happens when India has no more gold to trade for oil? You are the bullshit artist.  The fact remains, no energy, no economy, it is that simple.  The laws of Nature and physics make no promises regarding anyone's survival and it take energy to do, well, anything.  Again, no energy, no economy, period.  

    Mon, 11/14/2011 - 11:27 | 1875583 fuu
    fuu's picture

    Bullshit.

    There were no economies or trade before hydrocarbon fuels? Perhaps your historic timeline is too narrow.

    Mon, 11/14/2011 - 11:28 | 1875588 oddjob
    oddjob's picture

    Settlement outside USD narcofiat will be a wonderful thing. If you are refering to an average overweight fat amercian  being able to afford the fuel to drive an SUV 15 miles to a drive thru for a 3 hamburgers, yes that economy is dead.

    Mon, 11/14/2011 - 11:23 | 1875566 Motley Fool
    Motley Fool's picture

    If you seriously believe this bullshit, you are going to have to learn some hard lessons soon.

    Mon, 11/14/2011 - 11:35 | 1875620 oddjob
    oddjob's picture

    So China will lead the world in new energy technologies, but all that will be done with USD settlement?...how exactly does that work out?

    Mon, 11/14/2011 - 11:40 | 1875646 Motley Fool
    Motley Fool's picture

    You are aware my reply was at bill1102inf? :P

    Mon, 11/14/2011 - 11:46 | 1875667 oddjob
    oddjob's picture

    I am now.

    Mon, 11/14/2011 - 11:48 | 1875674 Motley Fool
    Motley Fool's picture

    :D

    Mon, 11/14/2011 - 11:23 | 1875567 Motley Fool
    Motley Fool's picture

    .

    Mon, 11/14/2011 - 11:27 | 1875581 eurogold
    eurogold's picture

    Bill 1102 inf.........you are one stupid SOB!

    Mon, 11/14/2011 - 14:07 | 1876126 Ponzi Unit
    Ponzi Unit's picture

    That's an insult to SOBs -- Bill 1102 inf is a moron, pure and simple.

    Mon, 11/14/2011 - 15:32 | 1876322 Smiddywesson
    Smiddywesson's picture

    Seeing as you said yourself that government can set the price of gold at will, if gold were not money, it would have been utterly crushed by now.  However, gold has outperformed everything else for a decade.

    If gold were not money, and occupied a unique position in our world, then it would be curled up in a fetal position sucking its thumb after so many margin hikes.  You don't see too many conspiracy theories about margin hikes and price suppression in pork bellies or treasuries, because there aren't any.

    If gold were not money, the head of the Fed would'nt have to squirm when asked about it.  They wouldn't have to lie about it to empty headed economics students so they can badmouth gold for a pat on their heads by big shot economists like Greenspan who know better but just sold his soul to the devil. 

    Your wife doesn't concoct an elaborate story about a night on the town if she isn't screwing around on you.  Similarly, bankers and their minions in education and the MSM don't go to these levels of effort dissuade you from buying gold without reason.  Central bankers know what's going on, and they are buying. 

    Central banks are quietly buying gold and replacing foreign currencies on the asset side of their balance sheet with gold.  You, no doubt, probably are in on what's really going on, and are not fooled by this massive arms race to own gold. 

    You might want to educate yourself about modern agriculture.  The USA is not going to dictate world politics because "We feed the world."  Agriculture is the way it is because we use our reserve currency status, along with the IMF and World Bank, to force debtor nations to accept our subsidized farm products.  You break the buck, you break the stranglehold of US agriculture on world food production.  You'd have instant tariffs and foreign farming would become more profitable.

    Agreed about the energy issue.  Our civilization runs on cheap energy.  If that cheap energy isn't available, the old civilization dies and a new one must struggle up from the ashes.

    PS:  We solved the nuclear fission puzzle @65 years ago.  Do you really think the fusion puzzle will remain unsolved forever?  Fusion holds the key to unlimited energy and fresh water. 

    Mon, 11/14/2011 - 11:03 | 1875485 FranSix
    FranSix's picture

    GS might be positioning for a dollar devaluation.

    Mon, 11/14/2011 - 11:17 | 1875535 Diet Coke and F...
    Diet Coke and Floozies's picture

    Is it just me, or does weekly silver look like a bear flag?

    Mon, 11/14/2011 - 11:18 | 1875544 Conax
    Conax's picture

    GS misleads and shorts its own clients. I will assess what moves to make myself without advice from these lying bastards.  Why are their heads not on pikes by now?

    Mon, 11/14/2011 - 11:27 | 1875585 sullymandias
    sullymandias's picture

    Goldman is going to try to knock over JPM. Watch for PM short squeeze on the COMEX, and rumours around the CFTC investigation. Watch for palladium to surprise to the upside.

    Mon, 11/14/2011 - 14:09 | 1876128 Ponzi Unit
    Ponzi Unit's picture

    From your post to God's ear, sully.

     

    My money, however, is on JPM. David's pride is at stake.

    Mon, 11/14/2011 - 11:52 | 1875688 Jimmy Carter wa...
    Jimmy Carter was right's picture

    "the perfect reverse barometer!" - George A. Custer, just before he was turned into a greasy spot

     

    Mon, 11/14/2011 - 14:10 | 1876135 Ponzi Unit
    Ponzi Unit's picture

    Little Big Man, 1970, spoken by Leslie Neilson?

    Mon, 11/14/2011 - 11:54 | 1875702 au_bayitch
    au_bayitch's picture

    Nowhere in the report did I read anything related to a QE3, only reference to china easing. Didn't see advisement to owning any physical commodities. And a $1930 one year gold call isn't as bullish as I am. This doesn't provide me with clearly actionable advice. Another generic report typical of the overpaid Wall Street parasites on the backs of working class dogs. Percentage wise Methman might do better. Thanks for nothing Goldman.

    Mon, 11/14/2011 - 12:43 | 1875864 Snidley Whipsnae
    Snidley Whipsnae's picture

    You paid nothing for this 'advice from Goldman' so why would you expect it would be of any value?

    Goldman has repeatedly lied to thier own customers and then bet against them. Simply assume anything that GS says is a lie and proceed with that in mind.

    You will probably be better off if you listen to Jim Rickards comments. He normally has a brodcast (audio interview) approx every 2 weeks at KWN... sometimes more often, sometimes less. Rickards recently finished a book and it's now in publication... As you become familiar with Rickards you will find that he has a lot of info from sources that are well placed, including the military.

    You can find them here... allow about 30 seconds for the archive to load since it's several years of interviews. Scroll down to see archive and pick out Rickard's interviews. I believe you will find his very first interview, in 2009, contains info not found elsewhere.

    http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Archive.html

     

    Mon, 11/14/2011 - 13:31 | 1876024 au_bayitch
    au_bayitch's picture

    Thank you for the link, it does take time to load, and the free advice. Yours seems better than Goldmans. I would expect more than a 2.4% gold price increase in a 'stay long gold' title.

    Mon, 11/14/2011 - 12:19 | 1875779 ali-ali-al-qomfri
    ali-ali-al-qomfri's picture

    Its all the set up; first the director makes the call, then the props dept. comes in and builds a nice Unicorn pasture scene to settle the sheeple's minds that this is all under control and part of the program - that they paid for.

    There are selling ballet tickets to season ticket holders. Whether you enjoy the ballet or not is not for them, they just needed bodies through the door.

     

     

    Mon, 11/14/2011 - 12:41 | 1875858 mantrid
    mantrid's picture

    seems Goldman is close to supressing PMs with CME again, directing crowd to rip it off soon and close their naked shorts. hopefully, for the last time...

    Mon, 11/14/2011 - 13:03 | 1875938 Lost Wages
    Lost Wages's picture

    This means gold's price will be cut in half soon by "the invisible hand of the market." Get ready to buy lots of it while it's on sale.

    Mon, 11/14/2011 - 15:40 | 1876495 Smiddywesson
    Smiddywesson's picture

    Agreed in sentiment, but "half?"  No way.  That would completely decouple physical from paper.  It ain't gonna happen.  The flip side of kicking the can for years is an increasing number of people know the game, and that number only grows.  The floor is now $1534, and even that is not a sustainable price.  I'd be surprised if gold breaks below $1600 again, and pleased.

    Mon, 11/14/2011 - 13:19 | 1875984 bgilliam83
    bgilliam83's picture

    I rate this article 1 star, not for the call, but for the tragic farce this website really is.  You fade people when it doesn't fit your little agenda, then when Goldman ballsachs comes out and mooses the fuck out of your gold positions, with an article like this one, all you can do is proclaim it spot on and QE3.  Give me a break here, son. 

    Mon, 11/14/2011 - 13:44 | 1876065 malek
    malek's picture

    the current low level of US real interest rates

    At least mathematically they are correct, as a negative number is "lower" than the tiniest positive number...

    Mon, 11/14/2011 - 14:17 | 1876155 Ponzi Unit
    Ponzi Unit's picture

    They ask for Germany's gold as collateral -- confirming the reserve status of gold money --and Italian paper is north of 7%, the shit is about to hit the fan, and we geta sell off in London? I'd say intervention is not only in the cards, but it's happening today.

    Mon, 11/14/2011 - 20:55 | 1877687 Its_the_economy...
    Its_the_economy_stupid's picture

    It's really great knowing the answers before anyone asks the question. For instance, when GS's predictions violate our view of the future, well then, they're banksters and frauds and trying to dump prop desk losers on the adoring public. When, however, GS sees I to I with our view of the "great unwind", then its full speed ahead 'cause GS says so.., Ain't life grand!

    Mon, 11/14/2011 - 21:01 | 1877705 Its_the_economy...
    Its_the_economy_stupid's picture

    Guess I should say that TD gave the tongue in cheek "for what its worth...: to start us off. TD knows the score.

    Tue, 11/15/2011 - 15:55 | 1879980 Amschel
    Amschel's picture

    In 2010,goldman reported to clients to go long and hold gold futures,when the price was around $1350,and had a target of $1600 for the coming year.I guess they cant argue with GFMS,and also do not want to lose credibility,seeing everyone  is going to gold,they cant keep touting the same old crud ya'know.They will lose credibility.And at some point all the huge banks and manipulators will turn around and go long as well.Why on earth do you think entire govt's and central banks are secretly buying,and quietly,they love the prices and will keep buying,whether $1500-$2000-$3000....

    Any discount is just gravy.

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