Goldman On Today's Apparently Completely Unpredictable NFP Number

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Fri, 08/05/2011 - 03:12 | 1525884 pdizzle
pdizzle's picture

I Don't think we are at crisis levels yet, LIBOR is still in check though it may be showing the beginnings of the cracks in the dam:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=.TEDSP:IND

Click on the 3 yr time frame on the interactive chart below the short term chart.  As you can see it's relatively mild, compared to 2008, but if this goes bonkers, run for the hills.

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 03:14 | 1525885 spiral_eyes
spiral_eyes's picture

"friday, friday, market's going down on friday
everybody's looking forward to the weekend
friday, friday, going down on friday
everybody's looking forward to the weekend
partying partying (NO)
partying partying (NO)
not fun, not fun, not fun, not fun
looking forward to the weekend"

http://azizonomics.com/2011/08/05/black-friday-part-i/ 

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 07:19 | 1526105 Killer the Buzzard
Killer the Buzzard's picture

pdizzle, I am absolutely dumbfounded at how depressed short-term eurodollar rates and the TED spread are.  You would think banks would be more concerned about counterparty risk in this environment.  I guess they think central banks thoughout the world will back-stop everybody indefinitely.  Normalcy bias...

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 07:40 | 1526140 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

The last sentence shows how much GS is just guessing based on hope: "As we believe at least a few jobs were created in July..."   

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 03:15 | 1525887 asteroids
asteroids's picture

Now that OBOZO has a cool $1T in his pocket the bankers are pulling the same scam they did in 2008. Crash the markets and come to the president begging for more cash. OBOZO, weak minded, will give them something, maybe all of it. All of that cash should be used to create real jobs, but it won't. How's the Hope and Change president working out eh?

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 03:18 | 1525894 spiral_eyes
spiral_eyes's picture

hope and change?

dope and 'caine, bitchez. 

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 03:21 | 1525892 Tic tock
Tic tock's picture

NFP might possibly print high,

Gov 101 - maintain positive outlook

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 05:32 | 1526010 papaswamp
papaswamp's picture

Unless you want QE3...then this will be the final straw.

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 03:28 | 1525899 Number 156
Number 156's picture

Oh give me a freaking break already. Likely, they will blow hopnium smoke up everyone's ass with a halfway decent number, then revise it into the red before next week like theyve done a gazillion times before.  You can never believe any number they publish.

Wait about 3 weeks mininum, because it takes time for the steaming malleable turd we call a statistic out of the BLS to become something hard.

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 04:05 | 1525932 phungus_mungus
phungus_mungus's picture

If BLS has not leaked it to anyone, then it must be bad... 

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 05:33 | 1526011 papaswamp
papaswamp's picture

look for rapid pre-market move hour to half hour before BLS release....someone will spill the beans.

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 05:39 | 1526014 newstreet
newstreet's picture

The "Kudlow Bottom" in EUR/CHF. 

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 05:54 | 1526021 suvivalwithstyle
suvivalwithstyle's picture

was this not a 5;30 am EST release?? caNNot find the data anywhere???? bueLLer, bernanke, tiMMah, obuMMer, anyone...

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 06:46 | 1526067 MichaelG
MichaelG's picture

Due 12:30 zulu time, so 08:30 EDT.

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 07:38 | 1526137 TheDriver
TheDriver's picture

Well you could start by looking at the BLS web site:
http://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/201108_sched.htm

You can also subscribe to their calendar:

iCal users -- webcal://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/bls.ics
Google Calendar, Mozilla, and Evolution Users -- http://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/bls.ics

It's an 8:30AM EDT release.

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 06:45 | 1526065 r101958
r101958's picture

Just remember, if the Gov't wants to come out with a decent number all the BLS has to do is lower the labor participation rate again by dumping workers off the back end. I say watch the participation rate if you want to know whether or not the numbers were fudged.

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 07:43 | 1526143 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Correct, if participation rate is lowered, then the report is BS, as, in truth, we should see a higher participation rate.  This higher participation rate should be what skews the report to a higher overall unemployement rate. 

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 07:15 | 1526106 Tiresias
Tiresias's picture

Does anyone know whether the Minnesota layoffs are going to be included in this jobs report?

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 07:28 | 1526126 Fantasy Planet
Fantasy Planet's picture

Just wait an extra month to announce a number that's more inline with the revised (more realistic bullshit) number!

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 07:50 | 1526151 spanish inquisition
spanish inquisition's picture

Not leaked.?..Gonna go with two sets of numbers, based on whether they have enough to try to end the correction now or if they need to let out more line.  A better than expected will have Liesman touting "See! we're correcting", he seems to be very smug lately. So far its been weird, very controlled panic selling. As if everyone is waiting on the Fed, preventing capitulation.

 

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 08:22 | 1526222 Grand Supercycle
Grand Supercycle's picture

SP500 bounce is possible from current oversold levels due to Thursday sell off.

http://stockmarket618.wordpress.com

Wed, 09/14/2011 - 04:51 | 1667417 chinawholesaler
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