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Goldman On Today's Apparently Completely Unpredictable NFP Number

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Goldman has kept mostly mum about tomorrow's NFP number for one simple reason: the BLS apparently has not leaked it to anyone, which explains why a rumor leaked by Larry Kudlow of all people has the power to move the EURCHF by 100 pips. Should tomorrow's BLS surprise  there is just one conclusion that can be derived: any concerns of data leak from the BLS can be discarded. Which probably means that the NFP will be inline. Or not. As Goldman's Andrew Tilton explains there are just as many potential upside catalysts as downside, namely (to the upside) i) Jobless claims have moved lower since early July, ii) The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) nonmanufacturing employment index has held up, iii) The ADP employment report was reasonably healthy, while on the converse side we have i) Companies have begun to pull job advertising, ii) Manufacturing employment looks shaky, iii) Layoff announcements picked up in July. Taken together one can see why the Fed can push the data in either way, and the conclusion is that if the Fed wishes to pre-announce QE3, the NFP will be a major disappointment to where not even the robots can levitate the market higher, while on the other hand if Bernanke and kleptocratic company wish to extend and pretend for another two weeks in hopes that Mars, Alpha Centauri or Kang and Kodos will descend with an endless Jack in the Box full of Bernankebux, then it will print well over 100k. Alas, since every piece of news lately has been sold off we believe even a sizable beat will result in only a modest upside following by a massive fade, as the market refuses to rally without some evidence of QE3. Either way, for those who care about Goldman's thought, here they are, 5 short hours before the real deal.

From Goldman

Financial markets were in full retreat today, with the S&P500 index down 5%, Brent crude oil prices down 5%, US Treasuries continuing their massive rally (with ten-year yields falling to 2.4%, roughly equal to the low in late 2010), and the US dollar rallying.
Intensifying concerns about sovereign debt sustainability in Europe and a deterioration in the US and global growth outlook have spurred a spectacular selloff over the past week.

In this environment, the monthly US labor market report will receive even more focus than usual. The unemployment rate has risen for three consecutive months, to 9.2% in June. Historically, anything more than a very modest increase in the unemployment rate–35 basis points on the three-month moving average–has been associated with recession within six months. (See "A Recap of Our Unemployment Rate Recession Rule of Thumb", US Daily, August 1, for more details.) An increase tomorrow would put us very close to that threshold.

The labor market data have presented a very mixed picture over the past month. For those who prefer their glass half full:

1. Jobless claims have moved lower since early July. New claims averaged just under 430,000 per week in May and June, with the four-week average drifting down to 422,000 in the week of the July employment survey (July 10-16) and now at 408,000. Although the latest figures fall after the survey period, they seem inconsistent with a sharp breakdown in the labor market.

2. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) nonmanufacturing employment index has held up. At 52.5, July's reading was equal to the average of the fourth quarter of 2010, when private services payroll growth averaged 142,000 per month. Looking at the nonmanufacturing employment index over its entire 15-year history suggests a similar pace of growth.

3. The ADP employment report was reasonably healthy. Market participants can be forgiven for skepticism regarding this report, which has had some notable misfires. Still, on average the first estimate from the Labor Department for private payroll growth has been slightly stronger than the first estimate from ADP.

For the "glass half empty" folk, some other indicators have been less encouraging:

1. Companies have begun to pull job advertising. A report from the Conference Board showed a drop in new job advertising; the total number of online job ads has fallen for two months for the first time since early 2009.

2. Manufacturing employment looks shaky. The employment index of the ISM manufacturing survey fell by more than 6 points to 53.5. Although this implies that a greater number of firms see increasing employment than declining employment, this level of the manufacturing index has historically been associated with outright declines in the Labor Department's measure of manufacturing employment. (One potential subtlety here is that survey responses generally come in the second half of the month, i.e. after the July employment survey was conducted.)

3. Layoff announcements picked up in July. The Challenger, Gray, and Christmas monthly report on layoff announcements tallied 66,000 job cuts in July, up from about 40,000 per month in the first half of the year. Although this is probably more relevant for future employment reports, it may indicate that companies had already become even more cautious on hiring.

Taken together, our models suggest a pace of payroll growth marginally better than the past two months, so we forecast +50,000 for tomorrow's report. This would also be consistent with the broad US data picture overall, at least through early July: our Current Activity Index was 1.3% as of the end of June, similar to the prior two months, and real GDP growth for Q3 appears to be tracking at a similar pace given the monthly pattern in Q2 and the very limited data in hand for July so far.

As if the employment indicators were not confusing enough, one additional wildcard is the possibility of a large swing in educational employment. Typically, employment in local government education falls by more than one million in July as the school year ends, so even small differences in the timing of layoffs could have a big effect on the seasonally-adjusted job total from this sector. The pace of job losses from the state and local sector has been fairly steady at about 20,000 per month since early 2010, but given the tough budget situation facing many local governments as property taxes erode, risks would seem to be on the side of a bigger-than-usual decline. Given that any major surprise here is unlikely to be repeated in August, market participants should probably discount any large moves from this area. Our expectations are for a private-sector job gain of roughly 100,000.

The unemployment rate will also weigh heavily in our assessment of the report, particularly given its signaling power for recessions.
It has risen from a recent low of 8.8% in March to 9.2% in the June report; the three-month average has increased 17 basis points from its low, about halfway to the 35 basis points that has historically been a consistent warning of recession.

While the trend in the unemployment rate in recent months has been worrisome, it has been unusual in at least one important respect. In contrast to the surge in unemployment during the financial crisis and the upturn last autumn, which were dominated by layoffs, this increase in unemployment is mostly due to workers voluntarily re-entering the labor market but having difficulty finding a job. The table below uses data from the Labor Department's household survey to show the composition of the rise in unemployment during four periods of rising unemployment: (1) the official recession period, (2) the further increase following the recession until the peak in late 2009, (3) the renewed uptick in the growth scare of summer and fall of 2010, and (4) the current episode.

Recent rise in unemployment due primarily to re-entrants

This observation is consistent with other known facts about the labor market. As noted above, the number of new jobless claims has been relatively modest over the past few months and has actually improved in the past few weeks. Other data sources have suggested that a larger-than-usual number of young workers left the labor force in the past couple of years to get additional training (see "Why Does the Household Employment Survey Look So Weak?", US Daily, January 11, 2010, for some discussion on this topic). Their return would therefore boost the unemployment rate (at least temporarily) given the weak hiring environment. If this is the primary reason for the increase, the rise in the unemployment rate may halt–at least temporarily–in July because the bulk of the typical springtime influx has ended.

Overall, the labor force has shrunk gradually so far in 2011, so the bar for stabilization in the unemployment rate looks fairly low. As we believe at least a few jobs were created in July, we expect the unemployment rate to remain steady at 9.2%.

 

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Fri, 08/05/2011 - 03:12 | 1525884 pdizzle
pdizzle's picture

I Don't think we are at crisis levels yet, LIBOR is still in check though it may be showing the beginnings of the cracks in the dam:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=.TEDSP:IND

Click on the 3 yr time frame on the interactive chart below the short term chart.  As you can see it's relatively mild, compared to 2008, but if this goes bonkers, run for the hills.

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 03:14 | 1525885 spiral_eyes
spiral_eyes's picture

"friday, friday, market's going down on friday
everybody's looking forward to the weekend
friday, friday, going down on friday
everybody's looking forward to the weekend
partying partying (NO)
partying partying (NO)
not fun, not fun, not fun, not fun
looking forward to the weekend"

http://azizonomics.com/2011/08/05/black-friday-part-i/ 

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 07:19 | 1526105 Killer the Buzzard
Killer the Buzzard's picture

pdizzle, I am absolutely dumbfounded at how depressed short-term eurodollar rates and the TED spread are.  You would think banks would be more concerned about counterparty risk in this environment.  I guess they think central banks thoughout the world will back-stop everybody indefinitely.  Normalcy bias...

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 07:40 | 1526140 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

The last sentence shows how much GS is just guessing based on hope: "As we believe at least a few jobs were created in July..."   

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 03:15 | 1525887 asteroids
asteroids's picture

Now that OBOZO has a cool $1T in his pocket the bankers are pulling the same scam they did in 2008. Crash the markets and come to the president begging for more cash. OBOZO, weak minded, will give them something, maybe all of it. All of that cash should be used to create real jobs, but it won't. How's the Hope and Change president working out eh?

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 03:18 | 1525894 spiral_eyes
spiral_eyes's picture

hope and change?

dope and 'caine, bitchez. 

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 03:21 | 1525892 Tic tock
Tic tock's picture

NFP might possibly print high,

Gov 101 - maintain positive outlook

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 05:32 | 1526010 papaswamp
papaswamp's picture

Unless you want QE3...then this will be the final straw.

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 03:28 | 1525899 Number 156
Number 156's picture

Oh give me a freaking break already. Likely, they will blow hopnium smoke up everyone's ass with a halfway decent number, then revise it into the red before next week like theyve done a gazillion times before.  You can never believe any number they publish.

Wait about 3 weeks mininum, because it takes time for the steaming malleable turd we call a statistic out of the BLS to become something hard.

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 04:05 | 1525932 phungus_mungus
phungus_mungus's picture

If BLS has not leaked it to anyone, then it must be bad... 

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 05:33 | 1526011 papaswamp
papaswamp's picture

look for rapid pre-market move hour to half hour before BLS release....someone will spill the beans.

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 05:39 | 1526014 newstreet
newstreet's picture

The "Kudlow Bottom" in EUR/CHF. 

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 05:54 | 1526021 suvivalwithstyle
suvivalwithstyle's picture

was this not a 5;30 am EST release?? caNNot find the data anywhere???? bueLLer, bernanke, tiMMah, obuMMer, anyone...

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 06:46 | 1526067 MichaelG
MichaelG's picture

Due 12:30 zulu time, so 08:30 EDT.

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 07:38 | 1526137 TheDriver
TheDriver's picture

Well you could start by looking at the BLS web site:
http://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/201108_sched.htm

You can also subscribe to their calendar:

iCal users -- webcal://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/bls.ics
Google Calendar, Mozilla, and Evolution Users -- http://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/bls.ics

It's an 8:30AM EDT release.

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 06:45 | 1526065 r101958
r101958's picture

Just remember, if the Gov't wants to come out with a decent number all the BLS has to do is lower the labor participation rate again by dumping workers off the back end. I say watch the participation rate if you want to know whether or not the numbers were fudged.

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 07:43 | 1526143 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Correct, if participation rate is lowered, then the report is BS, as, in truth, we should see a higher participation rate.  This higher participation rate should be what skews the report to a higher overall unemployement rate. 

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 07:15 | 1526106 Tiresias
Tiresias's picture

Does anyone know whether the Minnesota layoffs are going to be included in this jobs report?

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 07:28 | 1526126 Fantasy Planet
Fantasy Planet's picture

Just wait an extra month to announce a number that's more inline with the revised (more realistic bullshit) number!

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 07:50 | 1526151 spanish inquisition
spanish inquisition's picture

Not leaked.?..Gonna go with two sets of numbers, based on whether they have enough to try to end the correction now or if they need to let out more line.  A better than expected will have Liesman touting "See! we're correcting", he seems to be very smug lately. So far its been weird, very controlled panic selling. As if everyone is waiting on the Fed, preventing capitulation.

 

Fri, 08/05/2011 - 08:22 | 1526222 Grand Supercycle
Grand Supercycle's picture

SP500 bounce is possible from current oversold levels due to Thursday sell off.

http://stockmarket618.wordpress.com

Wed, 09/14/2011 - 04:51 | 1667417 chinawholesaler
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