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Goldman Undeterred, Sees June As Next QE3 Announcement Window

Tyler Durden's picture





 

Jan Hatzius was on TV earlier, stating he expects a whisper of Twist extension in today's minutes, as per Hilsenrath. He did not get what he wanted. His take: it is now just deferred to June.

From Goldman:

BOTTOM LINE: March FOMC minutes make easing at April meeting unlikely without substantial deterioration in the outlook. However, an announcement of additional asset purchases remains our baseline, with June the most likely timing at this point.

MAIN POINTS:

  1. Minutes from the March 13 FOMC meeting showed that the committee did not discuss monetary easing options in detail, in contrast to our expectations. However, “several participants suggested that it could be helpful to discuss at a future meeting some alternative economic scenarios and the monetary policy responses that might be seen as appropriate under each one, in order to clarify the Committee’s likely behavior in different contingencies”. This may point to a staff presentation on easing options at the April 24-25 meeting.
  2. In their discussion of current policy, only “a couple of members” said that additional stimulus could be needed “if the economy lost momentum or if inflation seemed likely to remain below its mandate consistent rate of 2 percent”. The lack of support for immediate easing among current voting members suggests that any action at the April meeting is unlikely. However, we would note that “a couple” likely understates support for easing among Fed officials because presidents Evans and Rosengren—both of whom we think would probably be sympathetic to more action—are not currently voting members of the committee.
  3. Officials’ views on the outlook were only a little more upbeat than previously. The minutes noted that “the economic outlook, while a bit stronger overall, was broadly similar to that at the time of their January meeting”. The Fed staff revised up its forecasts “a little” for the near-term and “somewhat” over the medium-term as well. The discussion of labor market developments at the meeting mirrored Chairman Bernanke’s speech from March 26.
  4. Finally, the minutes said that the FOMC was still considering “potential further enhancements” to its communication policies, after introducing press conferences and an expanded Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) in the last year. We think this would include more information about the committee’s reaction function.

Btw, Hatzius is 100% correct, at least in this matter. As we will show momentarily, by 2016 there will be $30 trillion (at least) in global debt that has to be inflated away (and monetized). It won't inflate, or monetize, itself, after all.

 


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Tue, 04/03/2012 - 15:17 | Link to Comment CClarity
CClarity's picture

GS must need to still get out of a few long positions, perhaps even establish some shorts.  Then back up the truck and wait to buy back in the summer.  But thanks for the advice!

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 15:37 | Link to Comment ACP
ACP's picture

I think GS means QE4, since the LTRO money that migrated over to the US was QE3.

Amazing that whoever prints a bunch of money in the world, it somehow manages to get stolen and crammed into the US markets.

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 16:09 | Link to Comment oogs66
oogs66's picture

Was thinking same thing. Not enough muppets bought from them yet

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 17:07 | Link to Comment techstrategy
techstrategy's picture

EXACTLY.  And, they really wanted/needed something before "sell in May and go away" kicks in.  This was a huge hit for all the institutions wanting to dump overvalued crap on retail.  Even retail knows the seasonal trade, so the question now becomes which institutions start raising cash to be able to buy in (post correction) 10-20% below here first...

Without QE/inflation fearmongering to push retail into stocks, it will be institutions pitted against each other.  This should be fun...

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 15:19 | Link to Comment digitlman
digitlman's picture

Fuck you, Goldman Sachs.

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 15:27 | Link to Comment ObungaBoy
ObungaBoy's picture

GS rule U.S. , Israel and Switzerland, it will be nice to see them bite the dust but this  is not very likely to happen any time soon …. unfortunately ….

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 15:34 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Then again, it may happen tomorrow...no one knows. Well not any of us out here knows, thats for sure.

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 15:19 | Link to Comment PaperBear
PaperBear's picture

Of course QE3 is coming, the BRICS creditor nations have stepped outside the International Monetary Fund last weekend.

Buyers of government debt no longer exist so it’s quantative easing to infinity.

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 15:34 | Link to Comment macholatte
macholatte's picture

 

 

 

Lagarde has asked members to give her $500 billion in extra funds to fight financial crises, including for possible future eurozone bailouts.

IMF chief calls on US for more cash

?http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/international-business/IMF-chief-calls-on-US-for-more-cash/articleshow/12522131.cms

?

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 16:07 | Link to Comment Careless Whisper
Careless Whisper's picture

@ macho leche

Thanks for the link. I'm giving Mademoiselle Lagarde the QUOTE OF THE DAY:

In today's world, we cannot afford the luxury of staying in our own mental backyards.

(IMF Director Lagarde explaining to the citizens of the United States why the Federal Reserve cartel should print a trillion and send it over to Euroland.)

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 15:20 | Link to Comment Al Huxley
Al Huxley's picture

'by 2016 there will be $30 trillion (at least) in global debt that has to be inflated away (and monetized). It won't inflate, or monetize, itself, after all'

 

And that's all that matters.  The rest is just noise and posturing.  How so many people forget this and get taken in by the 'strengthening economy/weakening economy' bullshit is beyond me.  But it makes predicting the future pretty easy.

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 15:20 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

WOW didnt take long for Golden Slacks to rush out and say 'NO NO NO dont panic! We promise truckloads of free money, SOON!'

LMAO

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 15:22 | Link to Comment Conman
Conman's picture

Guess they are learning from Dimon, pre-game the Fed.

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 15:25 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Theyre all chock full of shit, thats all.

This fucking clown Haitzus was on TV this morning assuring QE would be announced today, now hes saying 'in a few months'? Anyone who will lose it all to these clowns deserves it.

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 15:33 | Link to Comment kito
kito's picture

isnt it great sheepie. if there was ever confirmation that qe3 will ABSOLUTELY NOT HAPPEN THIS YEAR, this was it. yesterday morgan stanley pump and dump, now goldman. they are just itching for the retail sector to jump aboard the train...................

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 15:50 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

'PULEEEEEEEZE retail show up and buy our bubbled up garbage our vaults are stuffed full we gotta find someone to sell this junk to!'

LOL makes me laugh.

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 16:04 | Link to Comment ActionFive
ActionFive's picture

Didn't Ben just murmer 'more easing' the other week when stocks were rolling over? Now, it is no easing needed again with usual charts. They don't want you to confirm QE so they can print.

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 15:21 | Link to Comment Tsar Pointless
Tsar Pointless's picture

"Sell in May, go away. Come back in June, after the swoon."

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 15:31 | Link to Comment ghengis86
ghengis86's picture

Why haven't you sold? just doing what Cramer told?
Come back in 2020 or there around, after this piece of shit ponzi is burnt to the ground.

Fuck this 'market' and all the fucktard central planners.

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 15:22 | Link to Comment ffart
ffart's picture

Step right up! Place your bets for the greatest spectacle in the world! One at a time please, for a bottle of Goldman's Own MIRACLE QUEASING No. 3, guaranteed to firm up your posture, cure skin ailments, and make hair grow back!

Wed, 04/04/2012 - 10:53 | Link to Comment PrinceDraxx
PrinceDraxx's picture

It'll make hair grow all right, but on your palms. Didn't your ma ever tell you jacking off does that?

 

Well, that's what's happening. GS is wanting all masturbators to pile in.

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 15:23 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Just defered until June, people! Keep buying stawks....dont worry free money is comin! Just not for a few months, really believe us we're GOLDEN SLACKS after all! You can trust us for sure!

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 15:29 | Link to Comment Deep79
Deep79's picture

All I have been hearing is QE3 is coming since last June.

It's not coming unless SP gets near 1000.

Simple.

 

 

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 15:50 | Link to Comment Augustus
Augustus's picture

"Operation Twist" has been a form of QE.  It is still on going through June. 

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 15:52 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

And apprently they can not allow stocks to even fall .5%, so S&P 1,000 is never coming so what are they going to do now? I believe theyre now just totaly out of ideas they have no plan its desperation mode.

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 15:28 | Link to Comment Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

How many times do they have to come out with the "wait QE 3 is coming in the next qtr"? Market participants surely are catching on to this bs.

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 15:32 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

If theyre not catching on that this is all nothing but BS, I feel not the least bit sorry for them when theyre all destroyed one morning.

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 15:30 | Link to Comment YesWeKahn
YesWeKahn's picture

GS has inside information from the FED as usual. So GS is right.

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 15:30 | Link to Comment mrdenis
mrdenis's picture

Headline should read .. Goldman Under Turd .......

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 15:31 | Link to Comment jjsilver
jjsilver's picture

Twist this, who do you think is buying all that treasury paper.

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 15:31 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

WOW what an upset to the stock markets....DOW down a whole -.5% GEE it must be the real big crash!

These clowns cant let the markets drop...GS came out with this emergency reassurance on cue. All theyre going to do from here on out is 100 point pump n dumps....chickenshit.

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 15:38 | Link to Comment Bastiat009
Bastiat009's picture

Tyler, to remain consistent, you should say that QE3 will never happen since Goldman says it will.

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 15:39 | Link to Comment mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

 

 

Legion of Doom quick to the mike after the Hall of Justice has said its piece.  (Or did I get that backwards?)

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 15:50 | Link to Comment Vince Clortho
Vince Clortho's picture

[sound of Klaxon horn]

"Buy ... Buy ... Buy"

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 15:52 | Link to Comment Centurion9.41
Centurion9.41's picture

"in contrast to our expectations"

I.e., we were wr, wro, wro, wron, wron, wron.... in contrast to our expectations...

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 15:53 | Link to Comment morisu
morisu's picture

Dow ramping up again... here comes the machines. QE or no QE nothing matters anymore.

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 15:53 | Link to Comment semperfi
semperfi's picture

It will be timed to maximize the number of votes cast for Obama on Nov 6, as will the SPR release.  Money in the bank.  Anyone wanna bet 'the usual amount' ?

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 15:54 | Link to Comment vote_libertaria...
vote_libertarian_party's picture

I don't think a June QE announcement is crazy.  If they spend one month not QEing an all out collapse will happen.  Who do you think is buying the additional $120 in incremental debt every month?

 

Stop the QEing and rates rocket higher...June sounds about right.  They can't even hold out for a month.

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 16:28 | Link to Comment xela2200
xela2200's picture

I think you got it on the nose. The answer is in treasuries. 10y below 127.5 or 30y below 135 would be a great pain point. The bonds are in a bubble which needs constant blowing to keep a float. Russia is not buying bonds. China is not buying. Japan needs to buy oil from Iran and the latter will not take dollars, so they won't buy bonds. England maybe. I think many of the participants took the short term treasuries from the FED and got out of the long end. When operation twist ends how will buy the long end? Monetarism.

The FED will stop printing when the government becomes fiscally responsible, and I don't see that happening anytime soon much less in an election year.

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 15:56 | Link to Comment Silveramada
Silveramada's picture

retarded! Paris Hilton on crystal meth is mentaly more stable than stupid average investors: maybe QE markets up, no QE necessary : sell off. Greece, euro, china... same old shit. Ben Shalom, you satan little helper, we'll get your ass one day, the only word you need is INSOLVENCY, now you can print as much as you want, that is the only truth: WE R BROKE IN DEBT and when the world realize this the GAME IS OVER ( gold to 7000$ silver to 500bucks)

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 15:57 | Link to Comment bnbdnb
bnbdnb's picture

Crash now, rally June to November.

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 16:29 | Link to Comment xela2200
xela2200's picture

Necessary pain according to the FED. Also, possible conflict in Iran. Certainly, the summer is starting to sound like it will be an interesting time.

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 15:58 | Link to Comment DavidC
DavidC's picture

There will be no QE until the Dow is back near 10,000. Why shoot one of the last bullets available when there is no need to? The stock market remains near twice the level it was at in 2009.

DavidC

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 16:13 | Link to Comment ActionFive
ActionFive's picture

I thought they 'ran out of bullets' right before they had to buy all of the debt. They must have a spell on us.

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 16:05 | Link to Comment q99x2
q99x2's picture

The FED is a branch of te GS. 7 billion people don't like them even though they run PR campaigns. They are desperate.

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 16:27 | Link to Comment Teamtc321
Teamtc321's picture

----------

"By a continuous process of inflation, governments can confiscate, secretly and unobserved, an important part of the wealth of their citizens. By this method, they not only confiscate, but they confiscate arbitrarily; and while the process impoverishes many, it actually enriches some....The process engages all of the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction, and does it in a manner that not one man in a million can diagnose." - John Maynard Keynes Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1920

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 17:15 | Link to Comment Bastiat009
Bastiat009's picture

Goldman people say what I want to hear. they must be right.

Wed, 04/04/2012 - 00:57 | Link to Comment tomRapheal
tomRapheal's picture

Goldman should be interpreted as a source that has the ear of the Fed.  On questions of what the Fed will do they actually have crediblity, mainly b/c they drink with the Fed decision makers.  Obviously, take with a grain of salt due to conflicts of interest as well.

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 17:22 | Link to Comment Albertarocks
Albertarocks's picture

They've just ignited the precipitous drop that instills the fear which will allow him to change his mind a month from now.  Exactly as per the playbook.  Hatzius now says "June".  For once I think he's right.

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 17:53 | Link to Comment JohnKozac
JohnKozac's picture

Bernank did not get the Goldman Memo (command) yet, evidently.

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 18:04 | Link to Comment The Navigator
The Navigator's picture

QE #X  in June - perfect timing to offset the market drop when the Supreme Court decision on Obamacare is released to the public.

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 18:24 | Link to Comment Lilguy
Lilguy's picture

Goldman may have just tried to fake us out with a step to the left, then it drives to the right for a slam dunk profit on its corporate account.

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 18:26 | Link to Comment Lilguy
Lilguy's picture

. . . or maybe the Fed is trying the fake right and drive left.

Who the hell knows??????

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 19:24 | Link to Comment I should be working
I should be working's picture

Meh

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 19:23 | Link to Comment I should be working
I should be working's picture

That's pretty funny, I liked this line...

"Let’s back up for a moment. There’s no doubt that many escort ads on Backpage are placed by consenting adults."

Um, last time I checked prostitution isn't legal.  Even among consenting adults.

Come to think of it, I wonder if Goldman owns the companies that do half the advertising on ZeroHedge?!?!?!

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 19:11 | Link to Comment I should be working
I should be working's picture

Yeah, don't stop believing while our trading desk clears our long exposure.  Pay attention Kermit, this will make you a lot of money - trust me...

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 20:09 | Link to Comment jack stephan
jack stephan's picture

Quimby: Thank you Fat Tony. However in the future, I would prefer a non descript briefcase to the sack with a dollar sign on it.

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 20:32 | Link to Comment rsnoble
rsnoble's picture

Oh so in other words GS is doing god's work again by promoting QE3 and drawing in muppets for the next 2 months then June rolls around and no QE. Fuck these idiots. Fewer and fewer people are going to stop listening to them. Thank god! The real god that is.

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 20:56 | Link to Comment pussum207
pussum207's picture

This is all about shorting gold (on Goldman's part).

Tue, 04/03/2012 - 21:26 | Link to Comment rrrr
rrrr's picture

Doesn't this mean that the FED is acquiring a lot of stock shares at very low prices, buying them with money they create out of thin air? What does it matter whether the values of the shares decline? No real money was used in acquiring them.

All these economic phenomena are about plunder, pure and simple.

And our people do nothing.

Wed, 04/04/2012 - 00:53 | Link to Comment nathan1234
nathan1234's picture

IMHO - There will be no QE3.

These crooked reports from Goldman and others are meant to lure you in and loose more of your money in the stock markets.

And they want you to keep off precious metals . Therefore they keep them depressed.

They have used all the monopoly money to accquire assets that will have value after the crash.

Every last bit helps more.

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