Goldman On The Various Deficit Reduction/Debt Ceiling Plans And Immediate Next Steps

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Tue, 07/26/2011 - 08:44 | 1493941 papaswamp
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$3 Tril or less in cuts?…with upcoming spending that amounts to zero cuts. Do people not see this?…I know preaching to the choir.

If you are over spending by $1 tril a year over 10 yrs that is $10 T. Thus to be balanced one needs to cut spending/increase revenue by $10 T just to break even…this doesn't even address the existing debt. This is assuming interest rates do not rise in 10 yrs….if they rise it doesn't really matter. Either way the US is toast due to lack of political will.

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 09:02 | 1493993 whatsinaname
whatsinaname's picture

howbig is the August 15 payment due ?

Is that the back-breaker ?

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 09:56 | 1494114 InconvenientCou...
InconvenientCounterParty's picture

Why does anyone expect this amount of debt, accrued over more than 30 years to be corrected in one bulk action? That goes for behavior too. The "zero taxes for all" and "tax cuts for job creators" memes are still in force.

That's the coporatists value system that got the US into it's present state.

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 10:30 | 1494254 Idiot Savant
Idiot Savant's picture

No one expects the debt to be corrected in one action, what they/we expect is to stop the bleeding (i.e. incurring additional debt).  As papaswamp pointed out, this is an utter farce. It's simple arithmetic and no one is pointing it out. Why?

So, we cut three trillion and only incur an additional seven trillion in debt over the next ten years. This is assuming interest rates don't rise and that our budget doesn't increase. This is utter bullshit since our budget increases every year. Just take a look at the last ten years.

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 10:59 | 1494383 InconvenientCou...
InconvenientCounterParty's picture

My position is that the point of no return on debt was passed in the 90's. The action of "paying back" the debt is futile and thus a waste of energy. In this rule set, essentially a currency war, human morals are a disadvantage. The US, for all it's pathetic machinations is leading.

Applied game theory would guide the US to stay on the borrowing/inflative monetary policy because it improves the U.S. position relative to the other players. Doubling down would keep the imperial momentum and China and Iran on their heels.

Fine, the world is going to implode --I'm saying, China first. You simply do not want China and Iran getting stronger. Let Iran worry about domestic unrest rather than their nuclear program. U.S. easing is having pronounced effects on the mid-east. Keep going.

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 13:34 | 1495099 natureoftheexpe...
natureoftheexperiment's picture

All branches of the federal government are (and always will be?) decentralized; very much like the corporations we hate.. ironic.

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 08:47 | 1493945 monopoly
monopoly's picture

They never, ever talk about how we pay this money back. Because it will never happen.

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 08:53 | 1493958 HowardBeale
HowardBeale's picture

Inflation (print) or Hiroshima (not print; pay back)? No question. And when TPTB have advance notice of everything and can easily avoid currency destruction--and don't give a shit about The People, it inevitably will end in hyperinflation. No payback during this collapse of the civilization

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 09:10 | 1494002 Incubus
Incubus's picture

Paying back the total amount doesn't matter to them.  What they care about is the debt being honored with the blood of proles, and their unwaivering devotion. (by spending their lives laboring away, with the belief that the system is sound)

Money is a false measure.   Debts will be paid. 

 

Just watch their social engineering at work:  the western handlers will demonize the chi-comms and their handlers will demonize us...then it's off to the races. 

More ignorant proles killing other ignorant proles.

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 09:20 | 1494025 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

They never, ever talk about how we pay this money back. Because it will never happen.

 

+Infinity

 

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 09:29 | 1494055 Yes_Questions
Yes_Questions's picture

 

 

And that is the point. 

Who Run Barter Town?

The FED run Barter Town...

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 09:58 | 1494121 InconvenientCou...
InconvenientCounterParty's picture

Exactly right. So borrow more.

Yea it's not moralistic. So cover the children's eys and get on with it.

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 08:47 | 1493946 Debtless
Debtless's picture

There's nothing new here - the ceiling will eventually rise.

What does he think about the Triple A rating? That's the news.

 

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 09:02 | 1493992 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

This falls far short of 'market expectations', thats what I want to see play out. 

Markets are expecting another huge gift of funny money and I dont see it materializing, so when does the market tempter tantrum happen?

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 09:05 | 1493998 Debtless
Debtless's picture

Don't forget about Jackson Hole II

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 08:47 | 1493948 HowardBeale
HowardBeale's picture

Is Zerohedge actually a Goldman front?

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 08:54 | 1493972 Tyler Durden
Tyler Durden's picture

Not sure about front... But "back"....hmmmm

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 09:00 | 1493988 Popo
Popo's picture

Was that a "denial"???

 

</joke>

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 09:09 | 1494004 BlackholeDivestment
BlackholeDivestment's picture

...naa, Goldman is a Faunt http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=faunt for zero interest. You must have some kind of inverted xeliayds. Cut down on the municipal water and Fukushima meat, it may help. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GM8WK6wvBT4&feature=related

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 08:47 | 1493951 Tense INDIAN
Tense INDIAN's picture

Nifty NExt step...tomorrow also a Down day most probably ..target 5500

http://markettechnicals-jonak.blogspot.com/

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 08:50 | 1493953 espirit
espirit's picture

The plan is a win/win for the Repugnocrats and the Banksters, not for anyone else.

It's all about the 1% haves, not the havenots.

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 08:50 | 1493957 Mineshaft
Mineshaft's picture

(the details of when Treasury runs out of cash are irrelevant: the absolutely drop dead date is August 15, but without the machinery in place to resume refunding well ahead of it, the market will have no choice but to begin discounting that fact)

Recently you have taken to trying to make the facts fit your thesis.  You say in the article that This Thursday is the drop dead date, then you say August 15th is the drop dead date.

How is it the details of which date the treasury runs out of cash irrelevant when the topic of the entire discussion is;  The details when Treasury runs out of cash?

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 08:57 | 1493979 Tyler Durden
Tyler Durden's picture

Perhaps reading this article from yesterday would help with your confusion. And for the ADD impaired here is the chart that matters:

 

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 09:15 | 1494016 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

How about the $200 billion or so Treasury have dipped out of the govt pension funds? Where does that get plugged in?

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 09:25 | 1494030 knukles
knukles's picture

Charts are so Luddite, old fashioned, hard to read. 
Can I get a graph?

(grabs phone, continues texting)

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 09:18 | 1494019 No Bid
No Bid's picture

A couple firms came out last night with analysis that SS, medicare, and the debt could be funded for another two months at least.  I think it was UBS, C, or WFC.  Anyway, mayhem would ensue if we ever got to a bare bones situation like that, so I don't expect it.

 

Buttttt I wouldn't be surprised if part of the Republicans arsenal is a mild tanking of equities, assuming they can give reason for volume to appear out of nowhere.

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 09:24 | 1494038 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Riiiight, we're bankrupt, on purpose, but theyre not going to allow any of that, Shittybank or Wells Fargo gun dealers said so. And 'republicans' want the stocks to drop since theyre so in control and all. What is Ron Paul going to call Bernanke and tell him he wants a -100 DOW day? LOL big deal. At this point the drugged up american population wouldnt even care if markets were down 3,000 points today, they always assume all will just be fixed now.

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 08:51 | 1493959 bob_dabolina
bob_dabolina's picture

There is no other option than to write the President a check for trillions with carte blanche. If not your grandmother will starve to death, and A.I.D.S will go airborne.

-Tim Geithner

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 08:52 | 1493961 the not so migh...
the not so mighty maximiza's picture

No matter what the outcome we are screwed.  They have to increase the DEBT ceiling again in ether 5 months or 18 months with ether plan.   They will never stop spending, balance the check book, and pay down the credit card.

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 08:58 | 1493984 Dreadker
Dreadker's picture

Agreed - and in either situation its just giving me more time to dip into PM's and get other stuff...  I think most here accept that the US is boned fiscally, which when that falls apart will lead to boning in other areas ;-)  It's a shame really - i came to the US after 2008 looking for the "American Dream"... discovered within months it was a nightmare and now stock everything for a post collapse US... ;-)

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 09:56 | 1494070 BlackholeDivestment
BlackholeDivestment's picture

...if you really want to get the true American return with the golden BTFD Cup, buy RTN at 40 before the Q ball rolls off Chairsatans tongue and into your pocket, there's a big joint Israeli 2012  missile drill coming up right on time for the ballistic Q up before that launch sequence. http://www.jpost.com/Defense/Article.aspx?ID=230974&R=R1  If you are going to go full demand destruction QE 1 2 3 count down to perfect zero, gold 10 gazillion, may as well drink the Guayana Punch eh?

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 08:57 | 1493974 youngman
youngman's picture

What is amazing to me is all the talk about the "need" to raise the debt ceiling.....like the Titanic "has to hit the iceberg.....they cannot grasp the thought that we are spending more than we are taking in.....but a huge amount..its not a credit card limit we are talking about....its a whole bank......Thr Republican plan will add 1 trillion every year to the debt..the Democratic plan will add 2 trillion...so in one plan the Titanic sinks slower or faster...but IT STILL SINKS.....when this passes...the first auction is going to be very interresting..who is going to buy this crap?????

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 09:25 | 1494042 Yes_Questions
Yes_Questions's picture

 

 

Iraq.  Iraq will buy UST with petrodollars and re-valued Dinars.

That's it.  That's the Ticket.

Probably the FED will hold a much greater proportion of UST in the next few years as the US fumbles toward an inevitable re-direction of funds toward infrastructure and jobs.  Even with an attack on Iran, Syria (EastAsia) whatever.

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 10:13 | 1494178 BlackholeDivestment
BlackholeDivestment's picture

...you mean, how can the medium income handle the zero interest at the register, when that pyramid scheme scene in their hand requires more than a hand full more than before? It's called, honey we can't afford any more kids and we have to eat the mistake we have now, they justed printed a new bucket full of kid zero hole, so pass the government cheese please, this kid tastes like copper still, we did not take time to drain all the blood out before dinner with the Vampire Squids and as long as we can get others to help flavor up supper we can still have people over since we don't have to pay the mortage. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8Sp-VFBbjpE

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 08:56 | 1493975 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

So the Goldman posts are supposed to be contrary indicators to us? Assume the opposite of what they say? I really dont get the point of all the Goldman posts.

Bottom line to me this is debt ceiling 'lite', we're screwed and everyone knows it and their 'proposals' are debates about whether a bandaid or a bit of gauze on the severed leg is a better field dressing. And 'who's to blame', which unfortunately even ZH readers are buying into the lameass puppet show for the mercury vaccine crowd. 

Really sad.

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 08:57 | 1493977 lizzy36
lizzy36's picture

My plan is to learn as little as possible about either parties work of fiction.

I have a hunch both plans are mostly smoke and mirrors.

Nothing will change with either plan. Trade accordingly.

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 08:57 | 1493981 buzzsaw99
Tue, 07/26/2011 - 08:57 | 1493982 DOT
DOT's picture

Take a vote to make it;

Take a vote to break it.

 

The process is corrupted to the point that any vote is meaningless.

 

I'm sick of popcorn. 

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 08:59 | 1493985 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Master Plan:

1.)  Pass Reid plan.

2.)  End the wars to save money. 

3.)  Bring the troops back.

4.)  Increase unemployment by another 1.5-2% with unemployed troops.

5.)  QE 3 (on increasing unemployment rate, part of Fed duel mandae)

Mission accomplished.

 

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 09:06 | 1494000 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Only problem with that to those who study whats going on knows soon we open new war fronts in Syria and Iran, its fine to say 'wars are ending' but its not reality. So those costs go way up, and who's paying for it?

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 09:22 | 1494033 Spastica Rex
Spastica Rex's picture

Wars over + troops home = American Empire finished.

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 09:03 | 1493991 HowardBeale
HowardBeale's picture

S&P has truly written the final chapter in this tragicomedy, as when they "reapprove" the AAA rating after the miraculous plan comes from nowhere to be approved (nobody saw it coming), they will have proven, beyond a reasonable doubt, to all other inhabitants of the planet that weren't quite convinced yet, that the U.S. government is S&P is Goldman Sachs is JP Morgan; the result? Universal (more complete than the partially universal) condemnation of the failed superpower and a concerted effort by the world to disassemble what's left of it.

 

And it not that, then something else...

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 09:03 | 1493994 El Viejo
El Viejo's picture

Washingto needs to look at the NFL / Players deal.  That is God talking.  Ignore at your peril.

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 09:15 | 1494014 Bindar Dundat
Bindar Dundat's picture

OK but all they will do is get Goldman to look at it!  This is what they will say:

 

 Redskins are  "down and out" or maybe we should " go long" with the Washington....

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 09:05 | 1493999 oogs66
oogs66's picture

Master Plan:  Use government money to get as much facetime as possible in front of the voters without dipping into your campaign stash.  Do enough that you can say you did something, but not so much that you can't run an election on it.  Get re-elected and collect government money for 2-6 years.  Live off the big fat pension and lobbyists.

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 09:33 | 1494061 knukles
knukles's picture

Are politicians the cause of ADD? AHAD/ADAH/whatever it's called now. 

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 10:02 | 1494137 El Viejo
El Viejo's picture

Please see response below @  9:53  (Dyslexic computer this morning)

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 10:16 | 1494191 El Viejo
El Viejo's picture

Really inciteful question:(but backwards)  You might say that ADD has caused politicians.

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 09:10 | 1494005 AUD
AUD's picture

Yields on 10-year notes increased one basis point - Bloomberg

Tue, 07/26/2011 - 09:11 | 1494006 Iriestx
Iriestx's picture

Ford showed profitability this quarter.  In this bizzaro world that trumps the default of the US Government.  Expect a +200pt day.

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