Goldman: "We Doubt The Current Market Optimism Can Be Sustained Over The Medium Term"

Tyler Durden's picture

In yet another ironic twist, traditional market cheerleader Goldman Sachs, which discusses the factors for the "strong start to the week for equity markets" in the form of the 100 S&P point surge on nothing but hope and more rumor speculation, concludes with rather ominous: "beyond the headlines, it is only the process of grappling with the details and concrete plans that will force the political leadership in these countries to face the difficult tradeoffs involved. And as such, as long as there is not more clarity around concrete proposals – the distribution of legacy losses and the mechanisms for mutual support in the Euro-area going forward – and the details on implementation, we doubt that the current market optimism can be sustained over the medium term, and beyond the upcoming G20 meetings." In other words, precisely what we have been saying: rumors and "plans of plans of plans" are great for short term squeeze induced, bear market bounces, but in the long, or even medium-term, do nothing to address the fundamental math fail which states, quite factually, that going from point A (where we are now) to point B (where Merkozy wants Europe to be), will be virtually impossible absent massive equity losses. Yet, as also pointed out before, Wall Street career risk is always in the "here and now" never in what may happen a day or even an hour from now, now that markets are no longer a discounting mechanism, but a purely headline reactionary one.

From Goldman:

1. A Strong start to the week for equity markets

Global markets had a strong start to the week. Equities rallied throughout the European and US sessions, with the S&P 500 finishing 40 points higher on the day, close to the top of its recent range. Financials was the best performing sector in the US, followed by energy and other cyclicals. Banks had a relatively strong day in Europe too, finishing a couple of percent up on the day, behind other cyclical sectors like autos and chemicals. In sympathy with the positive risk sentiment, the dollar was on the back foot for most of the day. US Bond markets were closed for the Columbus Day holiday.

Asian equity markets are mostly higher on the day too. Apart from the strong US close which likely helped sentiment, two pieces of news from the region are worth highlighting. First, on Monday it was announced that Huijin, one of China’s sovereign funds, had added to its equity holdings of Chinese Banks, and that it planned to continue buying shares over the next 12 months. Although the size of the purchases is small, it is an important signal of support for Chinese banks in the wake of market concerns about the Chinese economy, NPLs and the stability of the financial system. Chinese bank stocks moved sharply higher on the open, but markets have retreated from the highs. Second, in Indonesia, the central bank unexpectedly cut its benchmark rate by 25bp to 6.5%, joining the growing rank of monetary policy authorities switching to an easier stance in recent months.

In Europe today, all eyes will be on the parliamentary vote for the EFSF in Slovakia. Otherwise it is a relatively light macro day within a light macro week. Continuing the run of IP releases for August, and after the positive surprises out of Italy and France yesterday, we have the August IP report for the UK where we expect +0.1% (better than consensus -0.2%). In the US the NFIB Small Business Optimism index will provide the latest read on whether the recent disruptions in financial markets are tightening financial conditions for small firms.

2. A better week in markets – is it all ok?

Global markets have traded with a much more constructive tilt for a week now, with the S&P 500 index up almost 100 points in that period. This abrupt shift in sentiment - which seemed to occur last Monday towards the end of the US equity session – was initially sparked by speculation that significant and co-ordinated bank recapitalisations were being discussed by Eurozone policy authorities. It was sustained through the week by macro data, which at least in the US, continue to surprise on the upside relative to downbeat expectations, and paint a picture of an economy that is growing at a moderate pace despite the intense volatility of the past quarter. And over this past weekend, a summit between the leaders of Germany and France provided more headlines indicating that a co-ordinated and comprehensive set of measures to combat the spreading Eurozone sovereign crisis would be unveiled ahead of the G20 summit meeting in early November (November 3-4, 2011).

Coming on top of market positioning and investor sentiment that was unremittingly bearish, this stream of relatively positive headlines, combined with some better than expected macro data, has been sufficient to push equity markets sharply higher over the past week.

3. Growth and Financial risk relief

As we survey the price action across global markets in the past week, three things stand out.

First, there was a moderation in financial and equity risk. Bank equity rallied both in the US and the Euro area, closing about 6% higher in both places. Credit spreads tightened, senior financial spreads in Europe tightened by around 50bp from about 300bp to 250bp. And volatility declined, implied equity market volatility as measured by the VIX index fell from the mid-40s to the mid-30s. To be clear, despite this moderation, financial and equity risk is still at recessionary levels. But if sustained, this type of moderation would go a significant way towards making us more comfortable trading macro views and dislocations elsewhere in markets.

Second, the market upgraded its growth view both in the US and Europe. Over the past week, our equity growth baskets were up about 5% in the US and about 4% in Europe (ex UK). The more consumer-facing cyclicals also moved higher, with our consumer growth basket moving up 4% in the US and by 3% in Europe (ex UK). As we described in the Global Weekly last week (Intensifying ‘Shocks’ to the Global Economy, and Their Pricing, GEW 11/31, October 5, 2011), cyclicals in both Europe and the US have already priced in a pretty significant recession. And in the US, where the data has been encouragingly steady, cyclical equity implementations like our WF US growth basket are pricing in not only something worse than our current forecast, but also something weaker than the kind of moderate recession that seems most likely. If financial and system risk continues to moderate, this is one area – the overpricing of US cyclical risk - where the market will need to catch up to the better data.

Third, whereas growth and financial risk was rerated, what is also interesting is the absence of any noticeable country tilts in the market action. Within Europe for instance, periphery or core countries did not notably outperform. And EM equities, including Chinese equities, did not notably outperform DM either, and China-exposed equities in developed markets also performed more or less in line with the overall markets. So the recent jitteriness over Chinese growth and credit market stresses – that are described by Kenneth Ho in yesterday’s Global Markets Daily, and has caused Chinese equities to underperform globally over the past month – look to be continuing to weigh on markets here.

4. It’s a long, long long road

The repricing of financial system and growth risk is encouraging, although it is hard to be confident yet that these moves can be sustained. In the case of US growth risk, there are firmer grounds for belief in the market rally. The market was arguably too negative and while the recent tightening in financial conditions continues to pose a risk, there has been a consistent drip-feed of positive surprises, even in the forward-looking survey data. The composite (manufacturing and services) PMI index for the US has been stable for two months now, even as it has continued to decline in the Euro-area and the BRICs.

On the financial front too, it is certainly encouraging that recent headlines discuss many of the measures that will need to be part of any eventual resolution of the Euro-area sovereign crisis – a significant restructuring of Greek debt that places Greek public finances on a sustainable footing, a co-ordinated plan for recapitalising Euro-area banks, and ensuring that other sovereigns like Italy and Spain can borrow at reasonable yields that allows them the space to demonstrate real economic growth.

But beyond the headlines, it is only the process of grappling with the details and concrete plans that will force the political leadership in these countries to face the difficult tradeoffs involved. And as such, as long as there is not more clarity around concrete proposals – the distribution of legacy losses and the mechanisms for mutual support in the Euro-area going forward – and the details on implementation, we doubt that the current market optimism can be sustained over the medium term, and beyond the upcoming G20 meetings.

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mossme89's picture

Can it please just crash already, so we can get on with our lives?

Libertarians for Prosperity's picture



Praise Jesus!  Death and suffering to millions!  Praise Jesus!  I love the smell of anarchy in the morning!

As a libertarian, I dream of the day when hard-working, innocent families see their savings and retirement accounts wiped out.  Few things excite me more than the idea of total chaos and anarchy rolling through this country.  Death and misfortune to millions! Bring on the apocalypse!  Fuck everyone!   

In all honesty, this is probably one of the most despicable qualities of libertarians....  the desire to see society and millions of innocent people suffer for the sole purpose of giving merit to your ideology.  Fucking despicable!


Sancho Ponzi's picture

Yea, we need to maintain the Beltway status quo: Lawlessness and a total lack of morality. Let's do nothing while Mellon and others siphon billions from our retirement accounts. Let's do nothing while average household income drops 10%. Let's sit back and relax as the unemployed become unemployable. That's the ticket. I've got news for you; millions are suffering right now.

JPM Hater001's picture

As a fellow libertarian you are welcome to your radical VIEW and to live YOUR life by them.  As long as none of your actions imped my liberty then all is well.

fuu's picture

As opposed to just being a liar in support of your ideology.

Uncle Sam's picture


Within a few months after Fukushima collapsed, the US Government quit monitoring radiation coming over in the jetstream:

For an idea of where the radiation is going:

Just as worse, Hillary soon signed a trade agreement with Japan that 1. They don't need to do radiation testing on their food exports, and 2. We won't test for radiation on any and all Japanese food imports (drink green tea, anyone?):

The main reason for Obamacare is that the health insurance companies are collapsing (along with the life insurance companies).

When the medical support structure in the US collapses, how are we going to provide healthcare to the millions of people about to suffer from extreme radiation poisoning? And in great part due to the INTENTIONAL failure of our government to address the issue?

And remember, it kills the kids first. This will be Obama's and Hillary's legacy.

Suffering? You ain't seen nothing yet.




d00daa's picture

go fuck youself you self-loathing piece of human filth.  yes, let's just keep the status quo so that these "hard-working, innocent families" that you so sickeningly use as a prop, can see their savings and retirement accounts wiped out BY RIDICULOUS MONEY PRINTING over the next two decades.  not only that, they'll get to see their real wages decline further for, yes you guessed it, another two decades, while prices for everything that they need continue to go up.

am i shocked that a statist freak show like yourself wants to keep the lower and middle classes of this country mired in trillions upon trillions of unpayable debt in perpituity so that you can continue to live your comfortable "status quo" existence?  hell no.  but you take it to a new low when you attempt to wrap your selfish world-view in some feigned compassion for "hard-working, innocent families."  i just threw up in my mouth a little, actually.

LooseLee's picture

We only desire to see those responsible for the condition we are in brought to justice whether that means losing all of their ill-gotten gains or hanging from a lamppost--or both! Justice for ALL!

DormRoom's picture

it will soon..


hegdge fund algos are pushing prices,  leverage ETF algos rebalance, pushing up prices, causing hedge fund algo to further push up prices.


One bad headline, and the SPY goes -5% in a blink of an eye, and the ETF rebalancing effects ripple throughout the market.



mossme89's picture

I think that might be key. The market is reacting to headlines and we haven't had any bad ones in like a week, or at least none that got any attention. The market is rallying on "hope" for a solution, same thing it's been doing for months, only now the situation is worse. This "hope" is a bubble waiting to be popped.

HelluvaEngineer's picture

Looks like the party just started. </crossfingers>

DormRoom's picture

The underlying stock is under pressure, but you have this increase flow, generating a synthetic asset appreciation-bubble.  Once the flow stops, prices converge to the underlying stock, that doesn't look healthy, given  macro conditions, and outsized risks.


liquidity can mask problems with fundamental valuation, but only for so long.  HFT/leverage ETFs are liquidity sources that help distort prices.

AngryGerman's picture
"We Doubt The Current Market Optimism Can Be Sustained Over The Medium Term" ... unless we get QE3!!!
Sancho Ponzi's picture

From Reuters:

Goldman Sachs Group Inc (GS.N) will likely record a loss in the third quarter

fuu's picture

We are going to need more dihopium crystals.

Smithovsky's picture

Sounds like someone is short an MS call or two.

TradingJoe's picture

Now, they have a moment of "honesty"?!?! GS?!?! Hahahahaha.......

kito's picture

quite doubtful. go long on equities in the medium term. thats what it means. never believe anything written or said by the great squid. always do the opposite. zh should have a warning before posting any goldman articles, "caveat emptor"

AladdinSaneGirl's picture

Are some companies just gonna go completely bust? Then the trick is to find the (small) ones strong enough to get thru, as history shows they go on to massive sp benefit.

AngryGerman's picture

I tell you which ones:

Weapons manufacturers: Bc the rich will have to defend themselves

Booze companies: Bc the poor need to have something


and finally rope companies: don't ask



molecool's picture

Time to go long...

junkyardjack's picture

Exactly, doesn't this mean that Goldman is actually long the market right now? Bullish

buzzsaw99's picture

the squid is working their reverse psychology mojo again bitchez.

Lost My Shorts's picture

Ya, doesn't this just mean GS is net short, and is trying to talk the market down while they cover?

mossme89's picture


Sometimes I wonder if the market is gearing up for the perfect storm. Like before a giant wave hits, the water is sucked in, maybe the market is spiking to the upside (sucking in) before it crashes downward (giant wave).


SheepDog-One's picture

You got it. Wash rinse repeat. 

All the while the morons are set up like Charlie Brown on a football really believe THIS time its the BIG rally! 


mossme89's picture

It's ridicioulus. I'm short the market and hanging on for dear life. Luckily I'm short only using my own cash, so I'm not suspeptible to margin calls.

Be very weary about this rally. There's something very fishy about it. Look at the way it started, by a melt-up into the close, and then when it looked like it might fizzle out yesterday, another melt-up into the close. Stinks like manipulation to me. My guess is that some big names have some inside info and want to sell at a higher price, before the market tanks.

DCFusor's picture

I'm in the same condition and seeing the same stuff.  I was kinda thinking the trading range cycle would repeat one more time and that now (well, yesterday and the day before) were time to get short for the next half-cycle down.  Oops.  I'll give it a day more, none of the up legs have lasted any longer than that.  In fact, the more nervous people get, the quicker the swings seem to be - longer slower cycles seem to happen when people are calmer (to the extent people influence this at all anymore).

Could it be people (traders) are just calm due to fatigue?  I know I'm getting tired.

IrritableBowels's picture

In the same boat, friend. It's frightening to say the least. Cheers.

vote_libertarian_party's picture

Read Michael Lewis's book The Big Short.  He interviewed hedge fund managers after the last crash.  They said they were completely lost because bad news was met with huge buying.  They said later they realized it was other big hedge getting margin calls and getting ripped out of positions, doubling down with highly leveraged money trying to reverse losses, etc...


Sounds like de ju vue all over again.

stormsailor's picture

looks like a melt straight up all day market to me.  i'm staying out of this insanity

SheepDog-One's picture

Who has 'market optimism' besides GS and the clowns at CNBS?

baby_BLYTHE's picture

Marc Faber on CNBC Squawk Box 10/11/11

Suffocating global debt problems and overreaching intervention programs will be good for the U.S. dollar but bad for asset prices otherwise, investment guru Marc Faber said.

Faber suggested that Occupy Wall Street protesters "go to Washington and occupy the Federal Reserve. (agrees with Alex Jones)

Josh Randall's picture

Jim Rickards view that te US never really left the Gold standard is a pretty accurate statement. The US's Gold may not be accounted for in public for a reason - as it would accurately depict the true price of Gold and Silver (given it's historic 15 or 10:1 ratio).

thus the view that the Dollar is as safe as Gold to some people - inspite of the Bernank's efforts

RobotTrader's picture

Two weeks of MS shorts now underwater and sucking wind.

rocker's picture

Maybe you should buy KBH and LEN.  They are beiing squeezed too.

That is not investing. It will go back down. Hopefulling with any of your longs too.

rocker's picture

Hope you bought Goldman's inciteful view on NFLX. Goldman says they turned around quickly.

Who's on the 52 Week Low list today.

Don't Buy Stocks.  The HFTs own you if you do. 

somethingisrotten's picture

What a rookie; geting excited about a 4 pt rally of a corpse that has been cut in half since July.

Manthong's picture

"but in the long, or even medium-term, do nothing to address the fundamental math fail"

Yeah, but since the tail wags the dog and currency is in unlimited supply to the dog waggers, just how long can the dog be wagged by the tail?

SheepDog-One's picture

Now theyre screwed, unlimited free imaginary Monopoly money has already been priced in.

slewie the pi-rat's picture

unlimited not yet needed, due to "pricing powers" in "markets"(?)

what is happening is that as retail & traders high-tails it outa "equities", da boyz just re-fill the inkwell.  1,000 points on the Dow = X Trillion$ in "wealth", but doesn't cost X $ Tril$ to "produce" in the "markets".  when retail & traders decide to bail, again, da boyz will out-sell them, too! 

if you have been buying "inexpensive puts" for the last coupla daze, you are well-poitioned, here for a reversal.  but ya hafta plug yer ears to the siren song of "the bottom is in" which will lead to a cramer-like condition of dollar dementia while raving about a charitible trust you "own" b/c too much wealth is bad 4u, and can lead to "king midas syndrome" which is the NWO handmaiden of "stockholm syndrome"

the Monopoly money is neither free nor imaginary, imo

the "capital wealth" which is determined by "markets" (by "marking" but only when convenient; otherwize by even more devious bullshit) may say one thing in "paper" and another thing in "ounces" and be quite the "house of cards" however

TPTB's needs to borrow are hugely, ginormously, magnifico,000,000,000,000.   and, as "counterparties" to worthless debt giggle nervously from high up in glass gaggle-housing, everybody must get stoned

Manthong's picture

"if you have been buying "inexpensive puts" for the last coupla daze, you are well-poitioned, here for a reversal."

Geez, I hope you are right.. I'm up to my hip strap in them.. testing the limits of the addage: "the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent."

Ronaldo's picture

Dow goes Green.  I quit.

rocker's picture

Go Cash.  Don't Buy Stocks. Shorts included. Why feed the Squid.

Ronaldo's picture

Thanks, I have been in cash or cash equivalents for quite a few months.  I am not the "Shorting" type as I just don't feel I have the experience yet.  I have been waiting for the proper moment to get back in and it just seems to drag out forever.  I can't understand how this scheme keep chugging along. 

Patiance is something I have, I am just astounded by how this is transacting.


SheepDog-One's picture

People are now so freaked out they look at any market move and it either ruins or makes their entire day? Wow pathetic. Just take your money out of this irrelevant market scam and buy things you need, youll feel MUCH better!

monopoly's picture

But you can get wiped out waiting for the truth and reality to set in. Shorting this market more than tough.

junkyardjack's picture

I'm waiting for it to break and then I'll short.  This melt up has been crazy, I'm glad I ditched my shorts on day 2 and now I'm just watching.  They've went up like 20% since I dumped out.  This is epic, makes me feel like something is going to be announced that will send the market shooting up.  The only positive is that volume has been so low but a squeeze can kill you.