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Goldman's FOMC Script/Playbook

Tyler Durden's picture





 

With 20 minutes to go, we thought it timely to see the script (perhaps) for the frivolity to come. It seems like the fate of the known world is predicated on the words of a bearded academic this afternoon and whether you believe he must or must not LSAP us to Dow 20,000 (and Gold $2,000) in the next few weeks - even as the economy and jobs tail-spin - there are many questions, which Goldman provides a platform for understanding, that remain unanswered (and more than likely will remain vague even after he has finished his statement). Their expectations are for a return to QE and an extension of rate guidance into mid-2015 (and everyone gets a pony) but no cut in IOER.

Via Goldman Sachs

Q: What is your baseline expectation for the outcome of the FOMC meeting?

A: An easing of monetary policy is very likely. Moreover, we expect a substantial step, given the extensive discussion of easing in both the minutes and Chairman Bernanke's speech at Jackson Hole, as well as the somewhat weaker-than-expected data released since then. We see two main scenarios for delivering such a substantial step:

  1. A combination of large-scale asset purchases (QE) with a lengthening of the forward guidance for the funds rate from late 2014 to at least mid-2015. This is our baseline expectation. It is in line with the policy options discussed in Chairman Bernanke's Jackson Hole speech, as well as the minutes of the July 31-August 1 meeting. Both of these gave a prominent role not just to forward guidance but also to QE (the chairman's speech mentioned it first). Moreover, it is at this point widely expected in the financial markets, which somewhat raises the cost of not delivering it.
  2. A more substantial enhancement of the forward guidance, perhaps to the point of adopting the 7/3 rule—no hikes until the unemployment rate has fallen below 7% unless inflation rises above 3%—proposed by Chicago Fed President Evans. But this is less likely, in our view. The FOMC probably feels that if it failed to deliver on expectations of renewed QE—which are of course largely based on its own communications—it would need to make up for this by not just lengthening but also substantially revamping the guidance. However, we suspect that the committee is not yet ready for an Evans-style 7/3 rule.

Q: Isn't it surprising that there has been such a strong push in the direction of additional easing, given the slightly greater stability in the economic data, the improved situation in Europe, the easing in financial conditions, and the impending presidential election?

A: Yes, it has been a bit surprising. One possible explanation is that the committee has shifted to greater concern about the fiscal policy outlook and the possibility of substantial drag from this source in early 2013. Another possibility is that it has simply taken the committee some time to react to the deterioration in the data and outlook that took place during the spring and early summer. In an institution as large as the Federal Reserve System, forging consensus around a shift in the policy can be a time-consuming process. This was less true under Chairman Greenspan than under Chairman Bernanke, who has tried to make the decision-making process more democratic, and it was also less true during the financial crisis when the Fed leadership was more willing to charge ahead to head off imminent economic and financial threats. But in an environment such as 2012--—a crisis situation but one in which the economy once again has disappointed the Fed's hopes for a substantial growth pickup—the lag has been a bit longer.

Q: Assuming a return to QE, what form will the program take?

A: We expect an unsterilized, open-ended program that is specified as a flow rate of purchases. We believe an open-ended program is attractive to many FOMC members. Those who want to provide a lot more support to the economy like the fact that an open-ended program has a "whatever it takes" aspect to it and is more clearly focused on generating an economic recovery; indeed, Presidents Evans, Rosengren, and Williams are on record as supporting open-ended QE. But at the same time, those who worry about committing to excessive stimulus may also be willing to go along with this, at least as long as the program is characterized as one that could be discontinued relatively easily if the outlook shifts. St. Louis Fed President Bullard may be in this latter camp. That said, the leadership has not yet shown its hand on this issue, so it remains uncertain which option the committee will choose.

If the FOMC does adopt an open-ended program, one key question is how the conditions for ending it will be specified. At one extreme, they could simply say that the program will end when they feel they are closer to reaching their mandate. At the other extreme, they could specify hard-and-fast criteria in the FOMC statement that will automatically end the program. In practice, we would expect them to steer a middle course, with fairly general phrasing in the statement and some explanation in the chairman's press conference.

In our conversations with investors, some have raised the concern that a shift to a flow rate of purchases may be taken as a signal that the Fed has moved away from the "stock" view of the impact of QE/LSAPs, in which the level of interest rates and financial conditions depends on the level of Fed asset holdings, toward a "flow" view, in which the level of rates depends on the rate of purchases. We do not agree with this. Market participants will form an expectation for how long the purchases will last, depending on the Fed's signals about the conditions that need to be fulfilled for it to end and the market's economic expectations. These expectations will turn the announced flow rate of purchases into an expected stock of securities holdings, which determines the impact on bond yields and asset prices.

Q: How large will the program be? How much will be in mortgage-backed securities vs. Treasuries? And what happens to Operation Twist 2?

A: These questions are all related, so it makes sense to answer them together. We see two basic options:

  1. A moderately sized program that runs concurrently with the Maturity Extension Program (aka Operation Twist) through the end of the year. This is our baseline expectation. If the committee chooses this option, we would expect them to go for a monthly flow of purchases of around $50bn, allocated mainly to the MBS market. Together with the Twist, this would imply monthly purchases of long-end securities of nearly $100bn over the next few months. At the end of the year, a decision would need to be made whether to maintain significant purchases of longer-term Treasuries via an expansion of the QE program that compensates for the end of Twist.
  2. A bigger program that replaces Twist. In this case, we would expect the committee to go for purchases of around $75bn per month, and the purchases would probably be more tilted toward Treasuries to compensate for the end of Twist. This would imply a smaller amount of duration removal in the short term. However, if it really is an open-ended program, it would be a commitment to a larger amount of duration removal beyond year-end 2012, and this is why we would be surprised by anything larger than $75bn per month.

Q: How might the guidance be reformulated?

A: We believe there is a widespread sentiment in favor of shifting the guidance more in the direction advocated by Michael Woodford's Jackson Hole study. This would mean shifting from an emphasis on the expectation that economic weakness will hold down rates to an emphasis on the desire to keep rates low in order to promote economic recovery. For example, the statement might say that "the Committee expects to hold the federal funds rate at exceptionally low levels through mid-2015 in order to promote a stronger economic recovery."

A more radical reformulation would be an adoption of the 7/3 rule, or something similar. We doubt that there is agreement on such a relatively aggressive change in the guidance just yet. Many Fed officials are probably still worried about committing to a particular unemployment rate, even with the "safety valve" of a maximum inflation rate. However, we would not entirely rule out such a move, especially if the committee decides against a return to QE at this meeting.

A yet more aggressive move would be a move to a nominal GDP level target. This is highly unlikely at this meeting. However, continued disappointments in the pace of the recovery could shift the debate in this direction in 2013-2014.

Q: Will they cut the interest rate on excess reserves (IOER)?

A: We do not expect an IOER cut at this meeting. The main argument against expecting it is that the committee has repeatedly considered an IOER cut below the current 0.25% and has rejected it every time. The prevailing view has been that while a cut would slightly reduce money market rates and slightly increase the incentive for banks to lower their lending rates and loosen their standards, this relatively small effect is unlikely to compensate for the potential disruptions in the money markets resulting from a rapid shutdown of money market funds that are no longer able to cover their costs. Indeed, the balance of opinion at the last FOMC meeting seems to have been negative: "While a couple of participants favored such a reduction, several others raised concerns about possible adverse effects on money markets." Moreover, Chairman Bernanke did not mention it in his Jackson Hole speech.

That said, we would also not entirely rule out an IOER cut. "A couple" of FOMC meeting participants did favor a cut at the last meeting. Moreover, the minutes noted that "…the ECB's recent cut in its deposit rate to zero provided an opportunity to learn more about the possible consequences for market functioning of such a move." Our reading is that these consequences have been minor, at least in the case of Europe. Finally, it was noteworthy that Atlanta Fed President Lockhart said in a recent interview with the Wall Street Journal that while he was not sure whether additional monetary easing was needed, a package of "two or three" measures would likely be appropriate if easing did occur. We suspect that an IOER cut is the third measure on Lockhart's list, after guidance and QE.

Q: What do you expect to see in the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP)?

A: We expect only a minor downgrade in the economic projections for 2013 and 2014 (see Exhibit 1).

 

As for 2015, we expect a forecast of a pickup in GDP growth to 3pc or a bit more, stable inflation, and a moderate decline in the unemployment rate to just over 7%. As for the date of the first policy firming, we will likely see participants push back the hikes substantially, as shown in Exhibit 2.

 

Presumably Chairman Bernanke will move his view from 2014 to 2015, and other officials (especially the Washington-based governors) are likely to follow suit. It is unclear whether the participants who thought back in June that the appropriate timing of policy firming was in 2012—probably Presidents Fisher, Lacker, and Plosser—continue to hold this view. We have assumed that they do.

 


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Thu, 09/13/2012 - 12:11 | Link to Comment GlomarHabu
GlomarHabu's picture

 

 

Obama has the spine of a chocolate eclair. He is a clear and presnt danger to this country and the entire world.

Thu, 09/13/2012 - 12:12 | Link to Comment ShortTheUS
ShortTheUS's picture

Bernanke, Bernanke; Chairsatan of mine.

Give me some easing that is truly divine.

Thu, 09/13/2012 - 12:19 | Link to Comment fuu
fuu's picture

There goes gold.

Thu, 09/13/2012 - 12:23 | Link to Comment nope-1004
nope-1004's picture

Both silver and gold torched minutes before the speech.

Hmmmmm.......

Last 8 or 10 fed meetings it wasn't torched this bad, this long, BEFORE the release.

 

Thu, 09/13/2012 - 12:23 | Link to Comment malikai
Thu, 09/13/2012 - 12:33 | Link to Comment nope-1004
nope-1004's picture

Knew it.  Check out silver after 12:30.  LOL.  Total inside "pre-sell" before the announcement.

 

Thu, 09/13/2012 - 12:46 | Link to Comment Chartsky
Chartsky's picture

It's ALL "insiders" now.  Any major Report or news there are tens of thousands of orders ready and put-in in less than 1-second?!?!

Thu, 09/13/2012 - 12:24 | Link to Comment sharky2003
sharky2003's picture

First thought was leak of no QE but stocks didn't crash with it. Hmmmm...

Thu, 09/13/2012 - 12:17 | Link to Comment Silver Bug
Silver Bug's picture

QE to infinity! If they don't annouce it today, it will simply be in a few months.

 

http://goldisking.blogspot.ca/

Thu, 09/13/2012 - 12:19 | Link to Comment SmackDaddy
SmackDaddy's picture

Here's a weird moment for ya:  I bought an AK-47 and a shitload of ammo recently.  I'm not a crazy person or an extremist, this was purely for kicks.  But the though occured to me that in 300 years, had someone just held onto this stuff, would be infinitely more valuable than any financial instruments I purchased that day.

Thu, 09/13/2012 - 12:36 | Link to Comment Dapper Dan
Dapper Dan's picture

With proper care, no quality firearm will lose value over the life of the owner and/or gun!

My S&W 357 mag, model #19, bought for $300 in 1988 is now $450 to $550.

Unfortunately it was lost in a..... well, you know what   ;(

Thu, 09/13/2012 - 12:41 | Link to Comment johnQpublic
johnQpublic's picture

unless its the oold 1878 shotgun i have that i cant buy ammo for that wont blow it to smithereens

sears catalog bought as to why it has zero value

Thu, 09/13/2012 - 12:50 | Link to Comment SmackDaddy
SmackDaddy's picture

357 is my favorite round

Thu, 09/13/2012 - 12:19 | Link to Comment FlyoverCountryS...
FlyoverCountrySchmuck's picture

ANY QE announcement, no matter what they decide to call it, can ONLY be seen as an acknowledgement of the EPIC FAIL of Obama's Economic Policies.

So we get to witness not only his Econ Policy fail, but his foriegn policy EPIC FAIL, on the same day.

Initial jobless claims SOARED this morning, but it isn't being reported by the MSM, because they are too busy trying to deflect the blame for Obama Foriegn fail.

Thu, 09/13/2012 - 12:37 | Link to Comment johnQpublic
johnQpublic's picture

at least we finally get the pony i've been asking for

but will it also be unsterilized?

Thu, 09/13/2012 - 12:44 | Link to Comment Chartsky
Chartsky's picture

As opposed to the integrity and peace mongering of Bush?

Thu, 09/13/2012 - 12:13 | Link to Comment PatientZero
PatientZero's picture

Holy shit, has Tyler gone brony???

Thu, 09/13/2012 - 12:13 | Link to Comment lasvegaspersona
lasvegaspersona's picture

a pony??!!!!!!!omg!!!

I've always needed another beast to shit on my lawn and eat me out of house and home...

Thu, 09/13/2012 - 12:15 | Link to Comment LMAOLORI
Thu, 09/13/2012 - 12:14 | Link to Comment malikai
malikai's picture

Wow. These guys really are something. And I'm not just talking about those expensive suits they wear.

Thu, 09/13/2012 - 12:15 | Link to Comment TheCanadianAustrian
TheCanadianAustrian's picture

Maybe the speech will be Ben Bernanke coming out as a brony. Let's see the algos parse that.

Thu, 09/13/2012 - 12:15 | Link to Comment ThunderingTurd
ThunderingTurd's picture

This $ destruction is going to be epic.

Thu, 09/13/2012 - 12:15 | Link to Comment lasvegaspersona
lasvegaspersona's picture

The plan seems to be to let thing drift until say 2037....and THEN they will get really really serious about the budget and the economy as a whole.......really really really serious....you are warned!!!

Thu, 09/13/2012 - 12:16 | Link to Comment Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

I was really hoping for a unicorn.  I guess a pony is OK.  Kinda disappointing, actually.

Thu, 09/13/2012 - 12:19 | Link to Comment Pretorian
Pretorian's picture

From Wikipedia: Bernanke attended Harvard University, where he lived in Winthrop House with the future CEO of Goldman SachsLloyd Blankfein, and graduated with a Bachelor of Arts in economics summa cum laude in 1975.

Thu, 09/13/2012 - 12:17 | Link to Comment Loose Caboose
Loose Caboose's picture

Everything's better with ponies.  I want one that sparkles.

Thu, 09/13/2012 - 12:17 | Link to Comment weebles
weebles's picture

One Rate to rule them all

One Rate to find them

One Rate to bring them all,

And in the darkness bind them

Thu, 09/13/2012 - 12:17 | Link to Comment Agent P
Agent P's picture

I'm finally getting my fucking pony!  Mom and dad suck...Uncle Ben rules!!!

Thu, 09/13/2012 - 12:18 | Link to Comment Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

WSJ Breaking News:  Fed expected to take NEW action on economy.

 

FUCK YEA!

Thu, 09/13/2012 - 12:18 | Link to Comment Enneadeka
Enneadeka's picture

Feb is a bunch of Bronies.

Thu, 09/13/2012 - 12:19 | Link to Comment Enneadeka
Enneadeka's picture

Fed, I mean.

Thu, 09/13/2012 - 12:19 | Link to Comment RopeADope
RopeADope's picture

What is the reasoning behind the belief that future QE will include MBS instead of SLABS with rates already this low and 'experts' saying housing is recovering?

 

 

Thu, 09/13/2012 - 12:31 | Link to Comment RSloane
RSloane's picture

All of the experts know that all of the other experts are lieing. That's why they're called experts.

Thu, 09/13/2012 - 12:20 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

DUMBO EARS, "Liesman" on the roof of the Fed. This shit gets better by the moment!  Ground the choppers Ben. Liesman will fly around dropping $ bags for you!

Thu, 09/13/2012 - 12:21 | Link to Comment czarangelus
czarangelus's picture

OMG PONY!!!!!!

Thu, 09/13/2012 - 12:21 | Link to Comment Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

Is now a good time to buy some near term put options on the REITs?

Thu, 09/13/2012 - 12:33 | Link to Comment fuu
fuu's picture

They're going to rape you again.

Thu, 09/13/2012 - 12:21 | Link to Comment caimen garou
caimen garou's picture

bernake, "we have the tools if market conditions slow" hey who stole my tool box? and was'nt john corzine just here a minute ago?

Thu, 09/13/2012 - 12:24 | Link to Comment lsbumblebee
lsbumblebee's picture

Right on cue PM paper sale by the usual suspects.

Thu, 09/13/2012 - 12:24 | Link to Comment GrinandBearit
GrinandBearit's picture

Gold dropped $30 bucks, then came back in less than 10 minutes -lol

Thu, 09/13/2012 - 12:34 | Link to Comment tocointhephrase
tocointhephrase's picture

Whip meet Saw

Thu, 09/13/2012 - 12:24 | Link to Comment Kreditanstalt
Kreditanstalt's picture

The dollar has just had an erection, while gold and silver freefall...wazzup?

Thu, 09/13/2012 - 12:29 | Link to Comment Gief Gold Plox
Gief Gold Plox's picture

Someone somewhere knows something. I'm almost sure of it.

Thu, 09/13/2012 - 12:37 | Link to Comment sosoome
sosoome's picture

the only question is "when" they know it

Thu, 09/13/2012 - 12:25 | Link to Comment tmosley
tmosley's picture

We're getting ponies, but not the kind of ponies you think:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FIY41LrvMFQ

Thu, 09/13/2012 - 12:25 | Link to Comment Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

75 billion per month? Jamie Dimon's bonus should be epic, just before he completely bankrupts the company.

Thu, 09/13/2012 - 12:25 | Link to Comment buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

it's good to be golden. taxpayers and shareholders take all the risks, da boyz get all the profits.

Thu, 09/13/2012 - 12:28 | Link to Comment Anasteus
Anasteus's picture

As regards Goldman Sachs reputation I tend to believe that quite the opposite will come true; IOER cut will be announced and QE postponed. Well, let's see...

Thu, 09/13/2012 - 12:36 | Link to Comment Anasteus
Anasteus's picture

Look at gold price being faked downturn... to scare and shake off dumb investors before it jumps up.

Thu, 09/13/2012 - 12:29 | Link to Comment Meesohaawnee
Meesohaawnee's picture

what a crock. obviously the WSJ is just a complete scam. the headline reads .. i kid you not "Fed expected to act to support Economy." No no no . Idiots .Fed to support bonuses banks stock market fuck joe six pack

Thu, 09/13/2012 - 12:29 | Link to Comment Inthemix96
Inthemix96's picture

Bernank you little fucking dwarf shithawk.

Fuck off, leave us alone you shit filled twatface cunt.

Fuck you and the pony you rode in on.

And get a shave, your head is too small for your tiny body anyway you miniture bastard

Thu, 09/13/2012 - 12:29 | Link to Comment Bicycle Repairman
Bicycle Repairman's picture

Hey Bernank, don't forget the unicorn!

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eD90xcg6UaA

Thu, 09/13/2012 - 12:32 | Link to Comment Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

The preemptive stop blasting has me leaning towards epic printing.  I didn't think they would announce anything today other than more mumbo jumbo Fedspeak.  Now I sense a disturbance in the force.

Thu, 09/13/2012 - 12:31 | Link to Comment Hedgetard55
Hedgetard55's picture

Bernanke should burn in hell, unfortunately I do not understand Hell to be as it is taught in the organized religions. In fact the Scripture says "death and hell are cast into the lake of fire" (God).

Thu, 09/13/2012 - 12:33 | Link to Comment fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

turkey sandwich time. pay up kito

Thu, 09/13/2012 - 12:33 | Link to Comment JustPrintMoreDuh
JustPrintMoreDuh's picture

Dance muppets dance ...

Thu, 09/13/2012 - 12:37 | Link to Comment tocointhephrase
tocointhephrase's picture

Hava, Nagila, HAVA

Thu, 09/13/2012 - 12:36 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 There is that open ended thing I was worried about. Now we can expect "Draghi" style tape bombs every week for eternity!

Thu, 09/13/2012 - 12:39 | Link to Comment GrinandBearit
GrinandBearit's picture

Yep!

Thu, 09/13/2012 - 12:40 | Link to Comment GCT
GCT's picture

I am so gonna laugh when he does not announce QE!  More rumors to get the markets churning. 

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