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Goldman's Jim O'Neill: "2008 All Over Again?"

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Sun, 08/21/2011 - 14:33 | 1583710 falak pema
falak pema's picture

Oh the unprincipled poachers, their hands reeking with blood of innocents,  who now solemnly swear they be true game keepers... Oh, Zarathustra, thus you spoke.


Sun, 08/21/2011 - 15:40 | 1583830 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Taking into account the position where he speaks, I could have predicted the content and direction of this O'Neill report before it was posted here.   What is more, anyone who kept up-to-date with the market movements last week could have written it.  Tyler, put in a FLUFF meter, so we can all vote FLUFF for such articles in the future.  

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 16:37 | 1583926 dust to dust
dust to dust's picture

 Here, Here. I second the FLUFF meter. What would this post score? Minus something. I answered my own question.

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 16:52 | 1583956 WestVillageIdiot
WestVillageIdiot's picture

I usually have to go to work to take in that much bullshit about the current state of the economy.  Thank you very much, Mr. O'Neill.  I can take tomorrow off since you have satisfied my bullshit quota for the week. 

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 15:39 | 1583831 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

Falak, congratulations on the book:http://www.falakpema.com/index.html

I'll be getting mine. I've been wondering about Sidi.

On the topic at hand, of course it's 2008 all over again. Only amplified. it was discussed earlier somewhere: bridge busting sympathetic resonance. The first grain of sand slid on Obumber's birthday, ponder that for a bit. August 4th, what are the chances of that, eh?

Everything is still here, only in worse shape of course.

On the ground here in India, we are in the midst of a made for TV anti-curroption drive that has the nation hog-tied and be-dazzled in a let's get the fox to guard the hen-house exercise and the fundamentals are plummeting, costs soaring. The Indian IT iindustry is struggling, huge leading indicator of the health of the west, specifically Euro and Dollar and to an increasing (but lately plummeting) amount, the Yen.

India is being wound up for some sort of huge release at month's end, which is a loaded date all around it seems. Teh madness of crowds is being whipped up as I type. 24/7 TeeVee, SMS's flying, chest beating jingoism and sloganeering at full volume. Somethign wicked this way comes. 

So, if the tension I feel in the air here is any indicator, it is going to be a deafening rhyme.

Vivek (ORI)



Sun, 08/21/2011 - 16:56 | 1583961 WestVillageIdiot
WestVillageIdiot's picture

It sure does feel like 2008 again in many ways.  In one way it is different.  We have taken the interim of the past 3 years to strengthen our home balance sheet.  We knew that the fix was not permanent.  We made sure not to go on any buying sprees or to do anything too brazenly stupid.  Although we have spent more than we shoud, we didn't spend more than we make. 

I just wonder how many people pissed away the gift of the past 3 years.  My only wish is that this holds on a little longer.  We have our escape plan in place.  We just need time to implement it. 

Mon, 08/22/2011 - 08:10 | 1585382 falak pema
falak pema's picture

These global Oligarchs are poker players who want to win back losses incurred in 2001/2008 and are prepared to hock country, and continent, all the bleeding world to win back in their mad 'won't lose' play. Pathetic, mad globalists.

Its every man for himself and that in itself is the death knell of civilzation. Won't end well. Who can fix it? 

Mon, 08/22/2011 - 08:05 | 1585370 falak pema
falak pema's picture


Thanks your comments, always much appreciated, although we don't agree one hundred percent on all issues, which is normal.

BTW, Ori, I have been following this ground swell movement in India concerning this NEW Gandhi, who is running a crusade against corruption. Awesome guy! Hope it pays dividends. Indian bureaucracy and smug hypocrisy, apparently deep corruption,  is something that has to be witnessed to be fully understood, a bit like french bureaucratic uber-alles arrogance!

Look forward to hearing about your publication if/when it appears. As for my book its the first of a three novel saga, covering 1173-1300 period all the way from fall of Jerusalem to Marco pOlo's voyage.

To tell you the truth: the real satisfaction is in writing it. If it flies that's fine if it doesn't that's fine too. I enjoyed the wine when writing it!


Sun, 08/21/2011 - 18:23 | 1584139 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

I have a sarcatic idea. Instead of spending billions on a high speed rail, we just buy fast cars

550i Autobahn


This will not go over with the 'serve and collect' union crew. Court municipalities revenues would back up quicker than Ben Bernanke plunging the toilet to justify QE3 . Court municipalities are going to send out there best to hoodwink sheep in believing crime is up and new budget bill needs to be passed. LOL



Sun, 08/21/2011 - 15:06 | 1583719 Captain Benny
Captain Benny's picture

We do not need "leadership" at all, instead we need the civil and criminal laws to be followed and enforced.  No new programs or bailouts need be constructed or old systems tweaked, we just need the existing laws enforced.  Let the governments default, let the central banks fail, let the TBTF banks collapse in their death spiral.  All this preventing the otherwise inevitable outcome: hyper inflation.

It won't happen.  We know this.  No amount of "leadership" can solve the loss of confidence problem growing in western society.  The people are speaking with their asset allocations and they are saying that its time to let the system fail and let it fail hard.  The banking cartel is refusing to let the people's will be heard and are desperately fighting to stay alive.  They are the ones that control the currency and they are the ones that will hyper inflate in an attempt to save themselves.

The actions have already been set in motion.  We're just watching the slow drawn own process where only a few dominoes fall at a time... but each dominoe that falls can trigger two more and thus we see the acceleration.  Squared power "bitchez"!


PS: Sac/Tyler: Thanks for turning on the new moderation system again, really appreciate it.  Hope the new hardware works out!

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 15:59 | 1583866 Amish Hacker
Amish Hacker's picture

Yes, agreed that existing bankruptcy laws should be applied in this case, so that the TBTF banks could disappear in an orderly process. This would allow markets to arrive at true price discovery. But let's also apply the laws governing fraud and regulatory corruption. Major crimes were committed, brazenly, both before and after the housing crisis, yet no heads have rolled, no real reforms have been instituted. It's not just the balance sheets of the TBTF banks that have to be reset, it's our whole system of values and our collective sense of fairness.

Calls for "leadership" at this point are just an attempt to caste the role of Patsy, an open invitation for someone to take the blame for the global crisis, from the criminals who caused it. 

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 17:01 | 1583968 WestVillageIdiot
WestVillageIdiot's picture

At the heart of the mess of the 2011 mess is that term "too big to fail".  WTF?  For all the money printed up by The Fed in the past 3 years there is no reason to believe that they couldn't have shuttered every financial institution in the country.  Send the managers to prison.  Get the assets in solid hands.  Move on with the economy.

Too big to fail is as much bullshit as The War on Terror. 

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 17:05 | 1583970 tom a taxpayer
tom a taxpayer's picture


Captain Benny and Amish Hacker and WVI - +1,000

"We do not need "leadership" at all, instead we need the civil and criminal laws to be followed and enforced." 

Because of the huge backlog of cases as well as the RICO violations in many cases, the prosecution and the courtroom should be modified to process the mass trials in style of the Maxiprocesso (Maxi Trials) of the Mafia in Sicily during the 1980s that resulted in hundreds of defendants convicted. 


We need balls-to-the-walls prosecutions of Credit Rating Agencies, Countrywide, the mortgage industry, the appraisers,Freddie and Fannie, Citi and the big banksters, Goldman Sachs and other Wall Street banks, AIG, and federal co-conspirators at U.S. Treasury, SEC, OTS, Federal Reserve, especially FRBNY, and those members of Congress who aided and abetted the greatest financial crimes in U.S. history.

Justice demands long-overdue prosecutions of Countrywide, the ratings agencies, Goldman Sachs, Wall Street con artists and every one in between in these overlapping RICO criminal enterprises. We need 20 years-to-life hard time prison sentences for the hundreds convicted. We need RICO confiscations of the hundreds of billions in illegal "profits" from the criminal enterprises of the banks, mortgage industry, and Wall Street Mafia.

 The prosecutor who leads the charge will become a national hero. 

The rape  and pillage of pension funds, municipalities, widows, orphans, and taxpayers will not be checked, slowed down, or restrained unless there is Shock and Awe prosecution of the ringleaders and all their top capos. Right now the Too Big To Fail criminals think they are also Too Big To Jail. With the gross dereliction of State and Federal Attorney Generals failure to prosecute the ringleaders, is it any wonder that criminal activity is rampant on Wall Street and in Congress and the Federal government? 


Sun, 08/21/2011 - 14:40 | 1583722 golfrattt
golfrattt's picture

Christ, he could've condensed all that blathering to 3 paragraphs and gotten his point across...

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 17:03 | 1583972 WestVillageIdiot
WestVillageIdiot's picture

He could have consolidated it into one sentence.  "I am a piece of shit Goldman Sachs shill that will lie at will to try to get more fucking money for my masters."  That is a lot simpler and easy to understand.

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 14:45 | 1583732 vast-dom
vast-dom's picture

Jim you are a piece of shit. Your agenda is blatent and your report reeks of QE3 beggary. 

Go watch some football and get drunk on beer you fucking loser! Tomorrow is a fresh start to the same ol' same ol' until the motherfucker drops from under you and you get sucked into a giant smoldering crater.


Sun, 08/21/2011 - 16:17 | 1583893 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Do not diss Jim, the human being.  He is an eternal source of buckets of foie gras and properly aged Sauternes (i.e. Yquem).   Such commodities come in handy for some us from time to time. 

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 14:49 | 1583736 King_of_simpletons
King_of_simpletons's picture

Stating the obvious, eh ? after the whole world knows it.

Gosh, I get the urge to hurl feces on these prophetic seers. 

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 14:52 | 1583741 MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

Semiotic reading of subtext:

I can haz bailout now pleeze? Not that I needz it, I'd takez it just so others who really needz it could get one and not lookz baaaad.

Deeper subtext:

I can haz bonus now pleeze?

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 15:15 | 1583779 Bring the Gold
Bring the Gold's picture

You, MsCreant, can haz lol now!

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 14:56 | 1583747 Instant Karma
Instant Karma's picture

Didn't learn anything. Mohammad from PIMCO has a much richer and insightful piece I read earlier today. Basically, you have insolvent undercapitalized European banks holding debt of insolvent countries. One hell of a mess, bigger it seems than 2008s toxic debt problem. To fix this the EU will have to be reshaped and European banks nationalized. And throw in problems with Canada's banks as Tyler noted this week.

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 16:12 | 1583886 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

Is this Muhammed "short treasuries now" El-erian? Or is it El Aryan? Hmmm. "Muahammed the Aryan speaks." Sounds like we've arrived at the cross purposes phase now. Throw in a hard core case of Pretzel Logic and we could be in for some serious too-ing and fro-ing. Like saying "don't worry boyz it's all uphill from here!" as our new found optimism.

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 17:08 | 1583983 WestVillageIdiot
WestVillageIdiot's picture

Instant Karma, do you think it is a time when the Euro will finally go down?  How the hell is it still at $1.44?  That just seems incredible to me when it seems their banking industry makes ours look like a child's toy.  And then you have the Swiss.  I remember seeing that their banking industry had assets that were 2,300% of their GDP.  How does that not blow up? 

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 14:58 | 1583752 Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

QE3 = Tax payer bailout for stupid investments.

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 15:03 | 1583759 jplotinus
jplotinus's picture

My candidate for the next tipping point-worthy Black Swan is the announcement, when it comes, of the outcome of the AG negotiations with the TBTF banks over mortgage fraud.

There is no viable solution to that problem. If the outcome falls too heavily against the banks, the financial system will implode. If, as is likely, the outcome is too lenient, allowing banks to have gotten away with massive fraud, the public's reaction may be severe. Too many people are threatened with foreclosure and too many people have invested in strategic default to allow a whitewash of bankster fraud to go unpunished.

Therefore, upheaval is on the cards, one way or another, as a result of mortgage fraud.


Sun, 08/21/2011 - 15:12 | 1583772 snowball777
snowball777's picture

"the public's reaction may be severe"

What're they gonna do? Double "not pay"?!

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 15:17 | 1583780 Captain Benny
Captain Benny's picture

No need for "newspeak" here.  Yes they're going to double-not pay by #1) Not paying taxes #2) Collecting benefits they never paid for to begin with.


So yes in "newspeak" that is "double not pay"

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 15:04 | 1583761 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

All I know is that it will take at least 2 weeks before QE3 would be announced. If any.

Like the FED said: the FED doesn't care about the stockmarket. That's what they said a week ago and that means they'll let it crash.

And what they also want is the numbers of banks to go down. Mergers first, QE3 later.


Sun, 08/21/2011 - 17:12 | 1583991 WestVillageIdiot
WestVillageIdiot's picture

Allowing the whales to gobble up the plankton sure seems like the plan.  There will be about 6 banks left when this is all done. 

We will all be working on Jamie's Farm. 

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 20:28 | 1584486 DosZap
DosZap's picture

SD @ 15:04,

The Fed doesn't care about the Market?.

C'mon  Bro.............they MUST keep it up, so they can continue to MILK US.

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 15:05 | 1583764 ISEEIT
ISEEIT's picture

You rock Tyler.

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 15:09 | 1583766 oogs66
oogs66's picture

so he only now gets that it is like 2008?  and of course, we need "policy" to save him? 

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 15:09 | 1583767 snowball777
snowball777's picture

Even in abject defeat this imbecile is in complete denial. I nearly lost my coffee on him bringing up the SNB for fuck's sake.

Comedy gold, as always, Jimbo.

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 15:27 | 1583799 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Every single comparison to past crises turned out to be wrong. Because each time things are different enough that there's a big surprise: "It's 1929! It's 1937! Jerk, it's 1980 all over again with a touch of 2002 and a smattering of 1974". 

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 17:21 | 1584013 MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

By 268 there was only five tenths percent silver in the denarius.

Fun fact from the Fall of the Roman Empire by Edward Gibbon.

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 21:38 | 1584654 WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

I'm reading that book right now, just barely into it, but already the parallels to today are glaring.

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 15:31 | 1583814 Irish66
Irish66's picture

We are the pages of history to be written. Here and now.

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 15:32 | 1583816 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Many conventional monetary and fiscal tools were exhausted by 2008, but not all, and there are many policy initiatives still available. 

Translated: Fed will ride to the rescue, ad infinitum.

And this time they have stealth helicopters, they're way ahead of you. 

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 15:50 | 1583829 virgilcaine
virgilcaine's picture

It,s a whole lot worse than 08, more levarege and a spreading default risk to Countries.

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 17:17 | 1584004 WestVillageIdiot
WestVillageIdiot's picture

Which is worse, a financial crisis or a monetary / sovereign crisis? 

Hmmmmm.  I think the financial "crisis" of 2008 will be child's play compared to this shit. 

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 17:25 | 1584019 MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

Tin hat alert:

I wonder if they studied the hell out of that (2008, the controlled demolition and the save) and they think they can do it bigger and better and still live through it AND get their quantitative sleazing somehow?

Who protested, what happened, what were they able to cover up that no one ever found out about?

See what I am saying here?

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 15:42 | 1583834 BeerGoggles
BeerGoggles's picture

So, this is a buy signal?

There are only people selling fear at the moment, decent traders are buying the lows.

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 21:39 | 1584662 WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

Decent traders are waiting for the lows, you mean.

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 15:45 | 1583844 Ying-Yang
Ying-Yang's picture

(sarc)-Obamarama will announce his jobs solution Friday. Weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 15:50 | 1583850 JEHR
JEHR's picture

Instead of reading this drivel, read the two reports that tell what Goldman Sachs did to create the financial crisis--the FCIC report and the Levin/Coburn report.  There is one thing that Goldman Sachs execs are really masters at:  compartmentalizing everything that they do.  What a fantasy world they have created for themselves!!!




Sun, 08/21/2011 - 15:50 | 1583852 global
global's picture

Why is it that "bulls" continually talk about what can be done to get us through the next month/year/decade...until the next crisis hits?  Are they so myopic that they never contemplate if the economic trajectory they would like to put us on to solve the latest speedbump is actually sustainable and/or beneficial in the long run?

Does the concept of "too much debt" never enter their mind?  Or is it because they lack a certain part of critical thought that allows one to step outside model assumptions and question the whole system?

At least that is what I hope is their problem.  The alternative is that they know current asset valuations which give the financial elite the right to rule the world are false and premised on an ever growing pile of debt to be paid off by future generations, and simply choose to inflate in a huge way to maintain their privilaged perch while decimating the purchasing power of the poor who spend an ever larger part of their income just living hand to mouth.  That would be really sickening...and only really solvable by force.  FML...I'm a lover not a fighter

All that is necessary for evil to triumph is for good men to do nothing...except buy gold and wait.

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 16:17 | 1583892 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

A s a bull here's what i would have said: "we've actually been in a recession for the past nine months...bit it looks like we're coming oit of it!"

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 15:54 | 1583859 zorba THE GREEK
zorba THE GREEK's picture

The European banks are on the verge of collapse and their leaders are arguing about how to rearrange the deck chairs.

Bernanke to the rescue or world financial collapse. Is it just me, or does the European crisis appear to be a Monty Python skit?

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 16:07 | 1583876 HyperLazy
HyperLazy's picture

More akin to any given manic episode of "Fawlty Towers"...

Sun, 08/21/2011 - 15:57 | 1583862 kahunabear
kahunabear's picture

Does anyone have more faith in paper currencies now than in 2008? The stewards of confidence have failed and everything this idiot and TPTB propose just makes it worse. We won't be fooled again!

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