Goldman's Jim O'Neill Is Now Officially A Completely Broken Record

Tyler Durden's picture

How Jim O'Neill still has a job is beyond us. Not only is he the head of the worst performing vertical at Goldman Sachs, not only is he the creator of the Bloody Ridiculous Investment Concept (BRIC), but now this? Come on...

First, from Reuters: Goldman's O'Neill: U.S. equities market could rise 20 percent in 2012 - date December 27, 2011.

And then... from Bloomberg - S&P 500 May Rise 20% on U.S. Growth, Goldman's O'Neill Says, November 16, 2010.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index may rise as much as 20 percent in 12 months and the dollar is poised to climb as U.S. economic growth tops investors’ projections, Goldman Sachs Asset Management Chairman Jim O’Neill said.

 

The U.S. equity market will probably outperform the rest of the world and the dollar may strengthen 5 percent from current levels, O’Neill said in an interview in London today. The Federal Reserve will engage in another round of bond purchases, or “QE3,” if its current program fails to revive growth in the world’s largest economy, O’Neill said.

 

The S&P 500 is little changed since Nov. 3, when the Fed said it would buy $600 billion of Treasuries, adding to an earlier $1.7 trillion asset-purchase program known as quantitative easing that’s designed to cut unemployment and avert deflation. The Dollar Index, which tracks the U.S. currency against those of six trading partners, rose 3 percent during the period.

 

“If QE2 doesn’t work, then we’ll get QE3,” said O’Neill, who was named chairman of the money manager in September after working as the co-head of global economics research and chief currency economist at New York-based Goldman Sachs Group Inc. since 1995. There’s a “good chance” the S&P 500 will rise 15 percent to 20 percent in the next 12 months, he said.

To quote Erin Burnett, if in a totally different context, "Seriously?"

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Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Bove, O'Neill, Cramer, who the hell knows how these guys keep their jobs, unless it is that they tell lies that make fund managers believe the hype, and thus the algo machines from hell can continue to loot the Fiat Ponzi system.

knukles's picture

If Jimbo spent as much "Seriously"* time on investment process and management as opposed salving his own ego in infinte interviews and musings, the asset managemant arm would be a worthwhile endeavor.
Believe me. 
Been there, seen and done all that.
Hype netiher increases asset values and revenues nor maintains any long run client base.
Gets real lonley with poor numbers and the spotlight becomes seductively soothing, but of no catharsis.

 

* As noted above, courtesy of Erin Burnett 

CrashisOptimistic's picture

You guys never have understood that these people are not paid to be right.  They are paid to attract clients.

They are salesmen.  Accurate prediction is not part of the sales process.

Wolferl's picture

Well, if you repeat that 20 % prediction over some decades there´s a good chance you´ll be right in a year. C´mon Blankfein, give this gentleman an extra bonus, he´s really entertaining.

e2thex's picture

As long as the shorting is relentless the SPX will rise. 

If you are a trader you play the plan. That's the reality, like it or not.

We''re due for a correction and then the rise resumes.

Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Yes, one must listen to the distant rumbling sound of the propaganda machine.  The system (ESF, PWG) does short itself to refresh their reserves.  Imagine the summer of '08 when the call came to the PWG that the economy was going to collapse.  These dues are traders and they closed longs and opened shorts.

They did it again heading into the debt debacle this August.  Then after, once gold was at $1900, they loaned that as collateral to let the system continue on its merry way.  The Major Banking Houses and some other institutions are in on the fix, get the insider info, and frontrun the trades too.  Then they repeat.  Central Planning de jur.

e2thex's picture

When the Marketmaker says: "Plus 20%" and the public says: "Crash" it gets my full attention. 

LeBranche's family tree put it all into practice in the 1920s. 

RiverRoad's picture

Of course the rise resumes; Obama has to be reelected.   NOT.

Popo's picture

... Maybe he's also predicting 30% inflation?

GeneMarchbanks's picture

Nah. That is now known and filed under 'exports'.

rocker's picture

 Speaking of exports, isn't he the "Asian Specialist Analyst of the GS arm". 

 What the Fuk does he know about the U.S. except what he is told to say.

SAT 800's picture

I'm looking at 12% for my profit taking point, from where we are now. Sorry for the shorts; you don't have to do it, you know.

GeneMarchbanks's picture

Invest in Brazil, an ongoing miracle. Russia is also good, no volatility whatsoever. India is having an infrastructure boom = buy! and China is just beyond undervalued, especially RE.

Goldman still has clients?

rocker's picture

Brazil might be good until the olympics. Then it is sell on the news.

I'm staying 100% Cash until something gives. And it will.

SAT 800's picture

Oh I see, you're going to wait until the hive mind bids the price of something up nice and high and then "get in on it"; how clever.

tabasco71's picture

That's faith for you. I hope you are right and we haven't evolved into an iterative global machine where you have to be an HFT-bot in order to spot the micro-knock-on-effects as they burst.

Personally, I'm hoping when China blows it will allow a rebalancing of global trade and the West should start to feel a bit more wanted again - plus by that time, the millions of unemployed will have been sitting around for long enough to realise that they haven't been invited to star in a rap video, haven't won the lottery and state-aid will be all but gone.

ETA: 2013/14.

scatterbrains's picture

I just hope someone will report it here when GS puts out their sell gold call.

Dick Darlington's picture

Dudes like Jimbo are there to fool the little guys over and over again. According to these muppets equities are always cheap, dividend yield will beat bonds, equities will always rise 15-20 % per year, earnings will always rise, economies will always grow and "growth" will be more than eCONomists generally expect. And the list goes on and on...

emsolý's picture

That's conservative relative to Abby

Schmuck Raker's picture

WTF is a 'record'?

HoofHearted's picture

A broken record is like when your ipod is on the repeat the song feature, except that the song needs to be about 5 seconds long...and really really annoying.

small watcher's picture

It's an old-skool DJ term. You know the scratch-effect icon in your mix app? That's a picture of a "record".

GMadScientist's picture

If and when they all go to prison, O'Neill will be the circus seal.

 

Everybodys All American's picture

Did anyone expect something different? I suspect this is just like the past 10 years forecasts.

Anarchyteez's picture

They'll be in jail when there are no incumbents left in CONgress!

How do you wake sheeple? You put'm in a FEMA camp. Stupid f'n chimps.

Scalaris's picture

 

There's a 120% probability that a financial collapse this year is 100% probable. Give or take.

 

Michelle's picture

As much as I don't want to admit it, O'Neill could very well be right...take a look at a 2003 chart and draw your own conclusions why I chose that year for your review.

ravens9111's picture

Another example of GS telling their clients market goes up while betting the other side of the trade?

HardlyZero's picture

In the Reuters interview JimbO' said 2 more weeks to the market...so the actual interview was around December 17.

So Jim left himself an "out" during the interview the market could still gain 20% in the remaining 2 weeks of 2011.

BTW Jim did not look "chipper" in the Reuters...kind of hung over or depressed, with deep eyes, looking for an escape route.

 

This is how the too-big-to-fail and big finance in London will play this out.

Stiff upper lip ?

oogs66's picture

the worst part is he is so cavalier about it

tallen's picture

I applied for an internship in Goldman Asset Management. I hope I get an interview with this clown so I can give him a good punch in the face.

Seasmoke's picture

reminds me of the touts with the sheets outside the racetrack, doesnt matter to them if they are always wrong , they are out there again tomorrow

RockyRacoon's picture

Like the little half-inch ads in the back of Popular Mechanics:  "Learn ventriloquism!", and "Magic tricks revealed!".  Just send 10 cents and SASE for full details.   What you get is your own envelope back full of more enticing ads for bilking you out of more of your money.   Those little ads pulled!  If they didn't, they would not have re-run month after month, decade after decade.   As long as O'Neill's antics PULL, he'll have a job.  When the sucker revenues drop off he'll be out with not so much as a gold-plated pocket watch.   This ain't tiddly-winks.

verum quod lies's picture

Essentially guys like O'Neill are paid to lie. The filter isn't who has the best forecast or best market timing ability; it's about who is most likely to maintain and generate more fees. The squid's, and related other 'business', filters tend to select the one who is perceived to drum up business and appears to be competent to potential customers. The alternative universe filter is the one used by say ZeroHedge. You don't drum up a great deal of business these days telling the truth to investors, but even in "normal" times it seems that most firms of this sort prefer the great lie over the truth. This is especially true of firms catering to bankrupt and socialist governments (really one and the same thing) that specialize in spending other peoples' money.

Kali's picture

O'Neill, "Great Leap Forward!'.   Where have I heard that before?  These people are all laughable at this point. Like how the Soviets used to laugh at Pravda. 

brokenclock's picture

Here comes the market rally. Don't be suprised if the market takes off and goes up big. Lots of negative sentiment, too many shorts, rigged market, rigged data, election year, & QE that never stops.

It's the wrong trade, so therefore it is correct.

Happy New Year!!

 

ElTerco's picture

Well summarized.  The only thing that could derail an up US market next year will be the severity of the crisis in Europe.  If the US doesn't feed them enough money through the back door, then things could get ugly.  Of course, just because (most of) 2012 could be an up year doesn't mean there won't be a total collapse at some point.

In my opinion, the only way to avert imminent disaster is to raise taxes for a few years (a lot on the wealthy), cut spending, and slowly rein in the derivatives market over the next decade.

The wealthy are not currently making productive use of capital.  They are making unproductive use of capital by investing in financial products (i.e. derivatives) instead of real goods.  This is bad.

sabra1's picture

so, did you know that wrestling is just for show? do you get the hint?

ElTerco's picture

Review your response here in September (2012 in case you couldn't figure that out) and you'll have your answer.

Below Zero's picture

Perfect prediction for a firm that uses its client base to trade against. It keeps the rubes, er, I mean customers in at the top of every run up while the firm liquidates and shorts against their client base. When the firm's proprietary trading rarely has a losing day against all odds one does not have to look very far for an answer to constant odds beating trades. They are fleecing their own customers.

DCon's picture

"If QE2 doesn’t work"

 

Good man Jim!

 

SonOfSam's picture

ALL of these daft fuckers are naught but clowns to entertain fools, while robbers pick their pockets. THAT is the reason they "still have jobs": lying their friggin asses off IS their job.

Fortunately, it seems that there are many here who will not be their fools any longer. If we are to be robbed, it will have to be by force.

sic semper tyrannis

ebworthen's picture

He said Italian and Spanish bonds are a good buy, Chinese equities very cheap, markets have already discounted Euro crisis, U.S. escaping from crisis and housing market weakness coming to an end.  Hmmmm.

He thought U.S. markets would end the year 2011 20% higher; but is now changing it to 20% higher for 2012.

What a sing-songy lilting effluence of hopium dopium.

Cult_of_Reason's picture

Goldman: BRICs are hitting the wall

After decade of rapid expansion, economies of the four giant nations are winding down

In the past decade, mutual funds poured almost $70 billion into Brazil, Russia, India and China, stocks more than quadrupled gains in the S&P 500 and the economies grew four times faster than America's.

Now The Goldman Sachs Group Inc. contends that the best is over for the largest emerging markets.
http://www.investmentnews.com/article/20120101/REG/301019998