Goldman's Laments A Horrible August, Comes Begging For Help To Bernanke

Tyler Durden's picture

Goldman's head equity strategist David Kostin is shocked, shocked, that things have not turned out the way he expected them to at the beginning of the year. He is even more shocked that August just ended up being about the worst month in market history since Lehman, courtesy of this whole "mean reversion" to normalcy thing, whatever it is (apparently you can not have an infinity+1 S&P point levitation on increasingly less volume without it correcting at some point). Specifically for the statistics buffs, "In August the S&P 500 was down 5.7% with an annualized volatility of 47%. August S&P return was in the bottom 10% of monthly returns since 1928. Over that time 58% of monthly returns have been positive with an average return of 0.6% (7.4% annualized). August volatility was in the 98th percentile over that period at more than triple its 15% average since 1928. Just 25 out of 1004 months over the past 83 years have experienced higher realized volatility than August 2011. Amid that  volatility, the median hedge fund returned -2%, outperforming both the S&P 500 and the median large-cap core mutual fund (-5.9%)." Ahh, 'ze price stabeeleetee'... Anyway, it is about to get worse: if September closes red, we will have a 5th consecutive down month: "Five consecutive negative monthly returns are rare for the S&P 500. Since 1928 there have been only nine episodes when the S&P 500 declined for more than four months in a row (Exhibit 1). The longest was a ninemonth stretch of futility in 1974 that was part of two-year period when the market fell in 20 of 24 months by a cumulative 42%. The most recent example was the five-month period of  negative returns from November 2007 through March 2008, which was the first since 1990." Now should September, and October close read, we hit the panic button: there have been just 4 occurences of 6 consecutive down months in the history of the S&P! Which all leads us to the following shuck and jive: "Investors look to the Fed to stop the losing streak." And there you have it: when fundamentals reassert themselves, bring out the chairsatan.

Here is the historgram distribution of consecutive month (under)performance:

The visualization of August vol/return:

More specifically, when sector performance, the Zero Hedge QE Unwind trade continues to outperform (too bad we closed it two weeks ago).

Where the street should pay attention, is that now even Goldman is cutting its profit margin forecast: a long overdue event.

Full chartology:


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jm's picture

These guys have got to be short.  Last quarter's results were too dismal to be otherwise.

cossack55's picture

Napolean was short. These cats are just stupid, corrupt and assholes.

achmachat's picture

Trivia of the day:

The British Tory press sometimes depicted Napoleon as much smaller than average height, and this image persists. Confusion about his height also results from the difference between the French pouce and British inch—2.71 and 2.54 cm respectively; he was about 1.7 metres (5 ft 7 in) tall, average height for the period.
Optimusprime's picture

Correct.  Another factor is that, when Napoleon took command of the Army of Italy (his first great independent field assignment), he was introduced to his subordinate generals, most of whom were very tall.  So the contrast was noted.

malikai's picture

How do you lose money when you are 1/8th of the FED, or whatever their percentage is as a PD?

Lucius Cornelius Sulla's picture

Why does a gambler double down?

Downtoolong's picture

Because, in this case, the house is letting the gambler do it indefinitely until he finally wins. That's a no-lose, no-risk proposition. Hell, it's not even gambling.

Lucius Cornelius Sulla's picture

True, but they are certainly doing their best to take advantage of the situation.  I guess you could call it chutzpah.

Chaffinch's picture

Sadly that seems to be true. But why is BAC being sacrificed to the wolves? When Uncle Warren was brought in I thought this was because the gubbermint was trying to save BAC - maybe it was their overt support for Perry that meant they were hung out to dry...
Why is GS so favoured? Is JPM also guaranteed to be TBTF?

Lucius Cornelius Sulla's picture

Citi is by far the most pathetic piece of shit out there.  This is the 3rd major bailout for them since their bad bets on Latin American debt in the 80s.  It pisses me off to no end that they even exist.

Chaffinch's picture

I'd be very happy to see them all go down together - just finding it hard to imagine what that would be like!

cossack55's picture

I'm very concerned that the stolen shoulder-fired AA missiles stolen from the Libyan arms depots may be targeted against Fed helicopters. 

dwdollar's picture

They wouldn't shoot themselves down.  They would shoot down an airline full of innocent slaves who already accept being groped and x-rayed in order to justify more draconian measures.

Long-John-Silver's picture

On a serious note: Not a single Air Port is going to be safe in America.

Libyan missiles looted

TRIPOLI, Libya (CNN) - A potent stash of Russian-made surface-to-air missiles is missing from a huge Tripoli weapons warehouse amid reports of weapons looting across war-torn Libya.

They are Grinch SA-24 shoulder-launched missiles, also known as Igla-S missiles, the equivalent of U.S.-made Stinger missiles.

A CNN team and Human Rights Watch found dozens of empty crates marked with packing lists and inventory numbers that identified the items as Igla-S surface-to-air missiles.

The list for one box, for example, written in English and Russian, said it had contained two missiles, with inventory number "Missile 9M342," and a power source, inventory number "Article 9B238."

Grinch SA-24s are designed to target front-line aircraft, helicopters, cruise missiles and drones. They can shoot down a plane flying as high as 11,000 feet and can travel 19,000 feet straight out.

Bobbyrib's picture

The Obama administration should be proud of itself.


At least the Europeons will have light sweet crude flowing to them within a few months. /sarcasm.

Fish Gone Bad's picture

So I guess the pat downs are now going to get REALLY personal at the airport.

DeadFred's picture

Sadly I will get waved through. I just don't look like I'm smuggling a shoulder fired missle in my pants.

kahunabear's picture

I'm guessing those surface to air missles are a little tricky to stuff in a backpack.

jm's picture

"Is that a SAM in your pocket or are you just glad to see me?"

24KGOLD FOIL HAT's picture

Long-John @ 11:37

Guano-dafi loves to drop the big planes.  "You take my country, I take u planes."

This calls for another few hundred billion for DoD.  Hire Rummy to advise on the strategy.  Chaos is highly profitable :[

slewie the pi-rat's picture


the attack on bani walid has already started

here's what the goobermint puppets of the khazar 'jew' banksters pulled under the brits/blair: British Secret Service Helped Al Qathafi Jail, Torture Libyan Citizen  now, MI6 is claiming it had "ministerial" approval and was just "following orders", but blair's "spokesperson" denies it was from him.  what fun! rendering a 6 y.o. girl and 3 older children to libya, parents hancuffed, and torturing dad with the family in an adjacent cell!  cutting the wife & kids loose after only 2 months, and dad after 6 years.

now interpol has assued a "red warrant" for the moQ, tribal and regional squabbles are increasing exponentially, it seems, and the "war of liberation" drags on, with the moQ making announcements thru syrian media he's still in libya and encouraging all who hear his voice to keep fighting the colonial powers and their "democratic revolutionary" puppets.  wheeee!

oh, yeah, there are weapons all over the place!  missles mortars, rockets, mines, artillery shells, some chemical stuff, with carloads of missles going across desert borders, and possibly into the hands of "terrorists" (L0L!!!) this clusterfuk isn't close to "peaking" yer, imo.  ya can make car bombs outa this stuff ya know!  and one report opines that most of africa will become a "no fly zone" pdq b/c even with a new "internationally-recognized" goobermint no one is in control and since the moQ distributed stuff all over the place when NATO got involved, we'll have plenty more "action" due to the hubris and ivory-towerism of the nannies

in spite of the relentless propagananda against the moQ, now we know he did NOT use these weapons against NATO aircraft and ships, nor against the rebel forces.  imagine that!!! 

even the "prime minister" jalil has threatened to resign if people keep behaving badly!  L0L!!

ww2vet's picture

you white-trash piece of shit --fuck you. your mother cant even suck my cock with skill!!

karzai_luver's picture

the term BLOWBACK comes to mind.


All the decades of criminal western activity is going to be repaid in blood.


ALq is nothing, some of those peeps are going to take matters into their own hands lone wolf style. When one is tortured and/or ones family is butchered even under cover of the good war for "freedom@TM", well I don't blame them at all.


Welcome to the game , bitches. richly deserved.


disabledvet's picture

which part of "the game" are you talking about? the part where we start "hunting for Daffy" like blue tic hounds or the part where we "have to pull the dogs back" because they've got him cornered in a tree?

Gohn Galt's picture

Long John 11:37 am

That's a crazy statement.  Commercial airports haven't been safe since the time when you could not board with your primary weapon and backup.  I don't like guns because they are noisey, but there is something unnatural about flying unarmed.


Lucius Cornelius Sulla's picture

I think I'll be safe flying the pattern in my Cessna.  I'll take my chances.

Silverhog's picture

Wow, 6 months down will be 4 times since 1928. After that, it's free fall into the Mariana Trench. 

centerline's picture

Or a drop kick-kick into the stratosphere. Or both!

doomandbloom's picture

lot of people leaving Goldman Sachs at all levels...which is good..

but they will now corrupt other places....which is real sad..

24KGOLD FOIL HAT's picture

doomandbloom- goldman rats infecting other ships.

Reminds me of Enron.  They corrupted 100 other corp's.

Shoulda "pulled" the Enron bldg w/the rats in it!

jm's picture

"Rats infecting other ships"  -- you mean the SS Pimco?

24KGOLD FOIL HAT's picture

Sadly so.

There is hope for change: there are thousands, and soon to be millions, of superdoopernanothermine ZH floating mines being inseminated into the sea of tranquility!!!

Lucius Cornelius Sulla's picture

I doubt the corruption will be nearly as severe.  What makes GS so powerful is their deeply intertwined connections in the Federal government.  That takes a long time to develop.  Besides, the debt ponzi will take years to unwind.  The finance business in general is in a long term decline.

Lucius Cornelius Sulla's picture

"Investors look to the Fed to stop the losing streak.

That pretty much sums up the stock market since LTC in '98.  

Belarus's picture

That pretty much sums up the stock market since LTC in '98. 

You stand corrected, first it was Greenspan providing liquidity to the market after Black Monday. Then, of course, there was the S & L crisis in the 1990/91 time frame. In any case, you are indeed right. The Federal Reserve has done a remarkable job with price stability, inflation, and employment. 

Lucius Cornelius Sulla's picture

"The Federal Reserve has done a remarkable job with price stability, inflation, and employment."

Tell that to the unemployed college graduate with $100k in student loans who ends up in the emergency room without health insurance.

EscapeKey's picture

They have? For whom?

Oh, the bankers, that's right. Everyone else is being continuously robbed.

How much did the bankers get away with in the S&L looting again?

11b40's picture

Working from memory cells, not research, it was about $150 Billion from the tax payers.  This almost sounds like a paltry sum.  Now, it takes a trillion to get any serious attention.

The biggest difference between now and then, however, is that people went to jail, and politicians were disgraced and ridiculed.  Just Google the Keating 5.

And for all you partisans out there who still cling to the belief that one of the political parties would be better than the other at saving our dire economic future, here is Ronald Reagan's quote when he signed the law increasing the FSLIC account insurance limit from $40,000 to $250,000 at Savings & Loans and relaxing industry regulation:

"Boy, we are going to have some fun now."

Here are the main reason's for the problems then.  Any of this sound familiar?

  •  state and federal deregulation of depository institutions, which allowed thrifts to enter new but riskier loan markets
  • the deregulation of the thrift industry without an accompanying increase in examination resources (for some years examiner resources actually declined);
  • reduced regulatory capital requirements, which allowed thrifts to use alternative accounting procedures to increase reported capital levels;
  • excessive chartering of new thrifts during the 1980s:
  • the withdrawal in 1986 of federal tax laws (enacted in 1981) that benefited commercial real-estate investments;
  • the development during the 1980s of the brokered deposit market;
  • and delays in funding the thrift insurance fund during the 1980s and the RTC during the 1990s, which led to regulators’ failure to close many insolvent institutions in a timely manner.
    • As a consequence of all these factors, during the1980s the thrift industry realized unprecedented losses on loans and investments. The result, as noted, was the failure of hundreds of thrift institutions and the insolvency by year-end 1986 of the FSLIC, the federal insurer for the thrift industry. As of year-end 1986, 441 thrifts with $113 billion in assets were book insolvent, and another 533 thrifts, with $453 billion in assets, had tangible capital of no more than 2 percent of total assets. These 974 thrifts held 47 percent of industry assets. In response, Congress created the Financing Corporation (FICO) in 1987 to provide funding to the FSLIC by issuing long-term bonds.

Lucius Cornelius Sulla's picture

Remove the moral hazard and you solve the problem.  Government has no place in finance.

Sequitur's picture

That is exactly right, stupid Fed summoning everyone to bail out millionaires and bankers. At that time, at least Congress had the temerity to hold hearings about LTCM and criticize the Fed for putting its imprimatur on the bailout deal.

Now, there's frequent fed and government intervention, and around the globe, it seems every damn day has central bank interference.

Belarus's picture

....once again proving to the cartel stocks are the only thing that matters. Fuck savers, depositors, retireees, free markets and anyone making money on the short side or real money, middle class, poor class, housisng market (more money printing lowers home values), and everyone else not connected to Wall Street and Congress. I think I saw that wriiten under the Federa Reserve's mission statement recently. 

And we wonder why been was reappointed by Barrick. At this point, I feel they owe it to me at the very least to be on a first name basis with these scumsuckers.


Bam_Man's picture

"Free markets" are so-o-o last century.

We want/need higher asset prices right now pleeez, Ben.

RobotTrader's picture



This is the bottom line.

If the NYSE closes down 6 consecutive months,

Then it is pretty much a "lock" that:

- 10-yr. yields will be at 1.2%

- 30-yr. mortgage rates will be at 3.5%

- Interactive Brokers margin interest rate will be .0001%

At that point, Bernanke and Geither should be fired for "Gross Negligence" and "Dereliction of Duty".

Why is that?

20-years from now, economists and pundits will look back in aghast, and wonder why the Fed and the Treasury Department didn't raise the debt ceiling by 300% and issue 100-yr., 50-yr., and 30-yr. bonds en masse at world record low interest rates.

Heh, then Obama would be able to hand every citizen a stimulus check for $25,000.

Bam_Man's picture

And that would solve everything. Free money for everyone. R-i-g-h-t.

centerline's picture

Precisely what the hardcore keynesians say! That a little bit of stimulus is no good. It is needs to be massive.

Funny how the argument winds up in that very place where it is an "all or nothing" bet that ends in either success or death.

The $25,000 check would be right out of FOFOA predictions.

The Tyler "Shazam" moment.

EscapeKey's picture

Typical Keynesian claptrap argument. Nooo, let's never actually address the deficit, or the debts, let's just take advantage of cheap rates by piling on the debts even higher.

Reminds me of all those statements on British TV about "housing affordability". Yes, housing is more affordable now than a few years ago, however it is mainly the result of lower interest rates rather than house prices coming down from their stratospheric highs. And once interest rates revert to their historical norm, anyone buying during this current time of "affordability" will be absolutely hosed when it's time to remortgage.

But hey, let's not think further into the future but today.

Lucius Cornelius Sulla's picture

Condos have come down 50% from the peak in my neighborhood and are starting to cash flow out with 20% down.  But I fear that the economy is going to take another dive and drive rents down.  So, for now, I am waiting until next year to see what happens.  Looking for a little more margin of safety before I bite the bullet.