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Goldman's Roadmap For Europe - The Next Steps

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Three of the smartest strategists at Goldman, Huw Pill, Francesco Garzarelli, and Peter Oppenheimer, have released what one could tentatively call a white paper on the "next steps" for Europe. Far from being the traditional permabullish sellside drivel, this is a must read note, as it cleanly lays out the risks for the Eurozone from this point. The note focuses on three key aces: 1) fiscal consolidation and the ongoing role of the ECB in the future of a Eurozone which still has no fiscal cohesion (which makes sense: just like in the US, the Fed is aggressively putting the ball in Congress' court, as neither the monetary nor fiscal apparatus has any interest in being blamed for ongoing economic deterioration, so in Europe the ECB wants a federal union, complete with Eurobond issuance powers, so it is not in the cross hairs: alas, European politicians realize this is career suicide and the question remains: when push comes to shove, and saving the Euro requires career harakiri from politicians, will they step up to the plate?); 2) Italy, of course, as the country under the spotlight now and going forward; and 3) what the above two mean for BTPs and thus the European (and Global) equity markets. The sense we get from the Goldman trio is that while the company which has just spawned Europe's latest central banking head, while cautiously neutral is pushing for a downside case: after all what better way to unlock the Heidelberger Druckmaschinen true potential, than with a full blown crisis...

From Goldman Sachs

1. Fiscal consolidation is a precondition for further support

Over the past week, the pace of events in the European crisis has again picked up, amidst increasing sovereign bond market tensions, particularly in the case of Italy. After a week of drama, we are likely to see the formation of a government of national unity in Greece, mandated to approve and oversee the financial adjustment package agreed with the EU ahead of national elections next Spring. Meanwhile, a routine vote on last year’s public accounts to be held this Tuesday in the Italian Lower House will be a test of how much support the government can still rely upon and may lead to political change there too. Finally, the much anticipated Cannes G-20 summit – which was flagged as a key moment in the resolution process – has come and gone with little in terms of concrete measures announced.

Against this background, the ECB Governing Council surprised both us and financial markets by lowering its repo rate by 25bp to 1.25% at last Thursday’s meeting. While the timing of this move was unexpected, it remained consistent with our medium-term view, which foresees rates being lowered to 1% in the coming months and held there through the end of 2012 – as the market now also fully discounts. We forecast a mild recession in the Euro area this quarter and next, also involving the ‘core’ countries.

Of more immediate significance may be President Draghi’s remarks on the ECB’s asset purchases in the context of its securities markets programme (SMP).  Since the start of August, the ECB has bought roughly EUR 100bn of Italian and Spanish government bonds (BTPs and Bonos, respectively), equivalent to roughly 9-months worth of the combined Italian and Spanish budget deficits. Purchases accelerated over the past week, following the Greek Prime Minister’s abortive announcement of a referendum on the bailout package agreed at the October euro summit, which led to contagion into the Italian market.

These purchases have accommodated the net sale of these securities by non-domestic investors, forestalling large price discontinuities. From this perspective, the ECB’s SMP purchases resemble operations conducted by the Fed in relation to Agency debt in 2008-09.  A key difference between the two schemes, however, is that the ECB has not pre-announced a transparent framework within which the purchases will take place. At last week’s press conference, President Draghi stated that the limit on ECB asset purchases would only be revealed ex post each week, when the central bank discloses its security holdings. As in the past, no ex ante information on the magnitude, country composition, price or maturity structure of purchases would be announced.

More generally, in discussing the SMP, President Draghi demonstrated a high degree of continuity with the views of his predecessor. In particular, he emphasised that, as part of the ECB’s armoury of non-standard measures, SMP purchases of sovereign debt are: (i) (by their nature) temporary in duration; (ii) limited in scope; (iii) focused on the maintenance of monetary policy transmission; and (iv) (owing to the ECB’s separation principle) distinct from the monetary policy stance as reflected in the level of the repo rate.

We have consistently argued that the ECB will continue with SMP purchases in order to prevent a seizing up of sovereign markets, and the emergence of a disorderly situation in European markets more generally. At the same time, we have been sceptical that a President Draghi-led ECB would shift away from the ‘passive’ approach adopted by the Eurosystem thus far in the conduct of these purchases. Despite the calls of many observers for the ECB to adopt a larger, more ambitious and pro-active scheme for bond purchases, we doubt that the ECB will pursue such a strategy anytime soon. President Draghi’s remarks on Thursday appear to support our stance: he emphasised that the acting as a lender-of-last-resort for governments was not ‘really within the remit of the ECB’.

With the ECB apparently unwilling to pre-announce and engage in substantial and sustained purchases of peripheral sovereign debt and/or to establish and enforce ceilings for peripheral sovereign yields, the main responsibility for addressing the intensifying tensions in government bond markets lies with the issuing governments. Assigning responsibility to governments appears to be exactly the intention of the ECB: Governing Council members have been increasingly strident in pointing to the conditionality of SMP purchases on the implementation of agreed fiscal consolidation and structural reform.

Over the past week, the pace of events in the European crisis has again picked up, amidst increasing sovereign bond market tensions, particularly in the case of Italy. After a week of drama, we are likely to see the formation of a government of national unity in Greece, mandated to approve and oversee the financial adjustment package agreed with the EU ahead of national elections next Spring. Meanwhile, a routine vote on last year’s public accounts to be held this Tuesday in the Italian Lower House will be a test of how much support the government can still rely upon and may lead to political change there too. Finally, the much anticipated Cannes G-20 summit – which was flagged as a key moment in the resolution process – has come and gone with little in terms of concrete measures announced.

Against this background, the ECB Governing Council surprised both us and financial markets by lowering its repo rate by 25bp to 1.25% at last Thursday’s meeting. While the timing of this move was unexpected, it remained consistent with our medium-term view, which foresees rates being lowered to 1% in the coming months and held there through the end of 2012 – as the market now also fully discounts. We forecast a mild recession in the Euro area this quarter and next, also involving the ‘core’ countries.

Of more immediate significance may be President Draghi’s remarks on the ECB’s asset purchases in the context of its securities markets programme (SMP). Since the start of August, the ECB has bought roughly EUR 100bn of Italian and Spanish government bonds (BTPs and Bonos, respectively), equivalent to roughly 9-months worth of the combined Italian and Spanish budget deficits. Purchases accelerated over the past week, following the Greek Prime Minister’s abortive announcement of a referendum on the bailout package agreed at the October euro summit, which led to contagion into the Italian market.

These purchases have accommodated the net sale of these securities by non-domestic investors, forestalling large price discontinuities. From this perspective, the ECB’s SMP purchases resemble operations conducted by the Fed in relation to Agency debt in 2008-09. A key difference between the two schemes, however, is that the ECB has not pre-announced a transparent framework within which the purchases will take place. At last week’s press conference, President Draghi stated that the limit on ECB asset purchases would only be revealed ex post each week, when the central bank discloses its security holdings. As in the past, no ex ante information on the magnitude, country composition, price or maturity structure of purchases would be announced.

More generally, in discussing the SMP, President Draghi demonstrated a high degree of continuity with the views of his predecessor. In particular, he emphasised that, as part of the ECB’s armoury of non-standard measures, SMP purchases of sovereign debt are: (i) (by their nature) temporary in duration; (ii) limited in scope; (iii) focused on the maintenance of monetary policy transmission; and (iv) (owing to the ECB’s separation principle) distinct from the monetary policy stance as reflected in the level of the repo rate.

We have consistently argued that the ECB will continue with SMP purchases in order to prevent a seizing up of sovereign markets, and the emergence of a disorderly situation in European markets more generally. At the same time, we have been sceptical that a President Draghi-led ECB would shift away from the ‘passive’ approach adopted by the Eurosystem thus far in the conduct of these purchases. Despite the calls of many observers for the ECB to adopt a larger, more ambitious and pro-active scheme for bond purchases, we doubt that the ECB will pursue such a strategy anytime soon. President Draghi’s remarks on Thursday appear to support our stance: he emphasised that the acting as a lender-of-last-resort for governments was not ‘really within the remit of the ECB’.

With the ECB apparently unwilling to pre-announce and engage in substantial and sustained purchases of peripheral sovereign debt and/or to establish and enforce ceilings for peripheral sovereign yields, the main responsibility for addressing the intensifying tensions in government bond markets lies with the issuing governments. Assigning responsibility to governments appears to be exactly the intention of the ECB: Governing Council members have been increasingly strident in pointing to the conditionality of SMP purchases on the implementation of agreed fiscal consolidation and structural reform.

2. Italy under the Spotlight

Given the size of the BTP government bond market – the second-largest in the Euro area, after Germany’s – and the large exposure to these securities in the other core Euro area countries, the focus of the European sovereign and banking crises has moved squarely to Italy.

In the first half of 2011, BTPs were priced at levels broadly consistent with Italy’s relative macro fundamentals, say at yields around 200-250bp over German Bunds at the 10-year maturity (see our European Views from August 7, 2011 ‘Europe Should Say that BTPs are Cheap’ for a discussion). But since Germany demanded substantial ‘private sector involvement’ in the restructuring of Greek debt in June, the pressure on Italian sovereign yields has been relentless (outside a brief period immediately after the ECB commenced BTP purchases in early August).

In this context, any doubts in the market over whether the Italian authorities have the resolve to carry out fiscal and structural reforms are very damaging. Plans to force commercial banks to raise buffer capital against the risk of a (small) impairment of peripheral bonds, including those of Italy and Spain, has all but amplified investors disaffection towards this issuer. Although we concur with the Bank of Italy that Italy can sustain higher levels of funding costs, the ongoing self-fulfilling pessimistic dynamics may ultimately restrict the sovereign’s ability to roll-over its liabilities and thus bring its sustainability into question. And while yields are elevated and confidence is at a low ebb, these conditions weigh on the real economy, which appears to be entering a deep recession.

If the Italian government can re-establish its credibility and thereby re-access the market at spreads closer to the ones suggested by our credit analysis, a virtuous cycle of increased confidence, growth and sustainability can emerge both in Italy and, indirectly, in the Euro area as a whole. Re-establishing such credibility and confidence, however, is easier said than done. The measures put forth so far are in line with those announced in previous medium-term reform plans. Strong resistance from interest groups has in the past obstructed their implementation. Domestic political tensions and the frailty of the governing coalition only add to the difficulty of formulating and agreeing on the necessary changes to the social contract, including to inter-generational transfers, which are required for any fiscal programme to be credible. In this context, the quarterly IMF review that Italy has agreed to – and which will be initiated on November 15 – raises the stakes. But it may also provide a credible signal to the market if progress is made (and facilitate the task of transferring international financial resources without a strict ex ante conditionality should unwarranted pressures persist).

3. Implications for BTPs and the European Equity Market

In the shorter term, we anticipate that Italy will continue to pursue its announced reform agenda. Votes of confidence have been attached to the legislative passage of a number of key elements of the reform programme, the first of which is scheduled in the week of November 14. Ahead of this, the main focus will be on a vote in the Lower House this Tuesday on the approval of last year’s audited budget accounts. This otherwise routine ballot is expected to reveal how much parliamentary support the centre-right government can still rely upon after several MP defections in recent weeks. Should the government fail, possible scenarios include a reshuffle; an interim government of national unity, like the one that is under formation in Greece; or general elections.

Given fragile market sentiment and the perceived lack of delivery by the Italian authorities thus far, tensions in the BTP market are likely to persist. In the short term, these will continue to be contained by the ECB. As said above, we strongly doubt the ECB will force yields down pro-actively, but rather continue preventing discontinuities in the price formation from occurring. That said, the central bank will also likely attempt keeping the 10-yr yield spread between on Italy/Spain and AAA-rated EMU sovereigns below 450bp (for reference, Italy closed on Friday at 400bp over and Spain at 320bp, underscoring the strong pressures on the former). This is roughly the threshold that would trigger higher margin calls in the private sector and thus a shift in the stock of Italian and Spanish debt onto the ECB balance sheet as commercial banks look to fund an increasing share of their government bond portfolio with the central bank.

This strategy of ‘passive containment’ by the ECB will probably last until there is commitment by the national fiscal authorities to undertake urgent fiscal adjustments. But domestic politics are still evolving. Examples include the institutional mechanics surrounding a broadening of the parliamentary coalition supporting the government in Italy (a process that Greece is currently undergoing). All of this will buy time for the Italian authorities to re-establish the confidence of the financial markets. Our modal scenario remains that the Italian authorities will exploit this final window of opportunity to meet the formidable challenges facing them.

Once the framework for the EFSF is defined more clearly by the Eurogroup and made operational, further support for Italy may come from EFSF purchases of BTPs and/or EFSF guarantees of new Italian sovereign issuance (which we discussed in recent Global Markets Dailies). The Italian government may even make recourse to a precautionary credit line from the IMF, notwithstanding its unwillingness to accept the IMF’s help at the Cannes G-20 meeting, presumably on the grounds that subordination of outstanding debt to new IMF loans may further destabilise the secondary market for BTPs.

Our central scenario is characterized by high volatility in local assets, but probably also a reduction in broader systemic risk (we have seen indications of this in the price action last week). Should positive breakthroughs eventually occur (e.g., an ambitious fiscal package in Italy supported by a larger majority), we suspect that the reduction in fiscal risk premium in government bonds will be partly offset by investors’ attempt to reduce exposures in the rally, particularly in intermediate to longer-dated maturities where the price discount is currently large.

A different, more problematic scenario would instead be the one in which the Italian government proves recalcitrant (or politically incapable) to seize the initiative, notwithstanding increased pressures from the markets, peer EMU countries and the IMF. This could result in unilateral decisions by the authorities to nationalize banks, and/or restrict market activity in government securities. Under these circumstances, which we judge as very unlikely given current information but by no means impossible, the ECB would likely interrupt the SMP and retreat to refunding of depository institutions. This would leave the fiscal authorities (the IMF, the EFSF) to deal with the adverse primary and secondary market implications. Clearly, such a low probability outcome would be an extremely costly one, both for BTPs, equities, and for systemic risk more generally.

Balancing these different outcomes, we see BTP yields close to their highs against AAA-rated peers as the ECB contrasts market pressures. If, after a period of political turmoil, the Italian government takes more decisive action and this is accompanied by fiscal transfers (by the ECB and the EFSF) as in our central case, we see scope for the Italian spread curve to narrow and steepen from the front-end. This will not result in a rally to our measures of historical ‘fair value’, particularly heading into the less liquid year-end. But it should re-establish a more two-way market and, most importantly, result in a gradual ‘de-coupling’ of European sovereign concerns from broader market developments, as cross-asset correlations have already started to suggest.

From an equity market perspective, we think the near-term outlook is likely to remain volatile, with the market continuing to trade the implied risks (in either direction) of the evolving news flow. In the event of market pressures forcing the authorities to nationalize banks or restrict the market in secondary government securities, equities could be vulnerable to a setback towards their August lows. A more likely move towards re-establishing market confidence through convincing commitments by Italy to undertake structural reforms would likely result in a reasonable rally. A squeeze higher, however, would not be a reflection of the underlying macro fundamentals: we expect no growth in the Euro zone next year and forecast a fall in EPS of 10% across the SXXP (against a bottom-up consensus of +10%). Rather, it would be more a reflection of the possibility of some progress on Italy and a realisation that the European situation is more ‘containable’ than many have feared at each political twist and turn. This would allow the risk premium to moderate (we calculate the European ERP to be 7.8, and the level consistent with our macro forecasts’ 6.9%), pushing the SXXP towards 255 (our current 3-month target).

Given the prospects for more equity index volatility in the short term, we continue to have more conviction on relative trades within the market. Specifically, we continue to focus on relative growth prospects via a long position on European companies with high exposure to BRICS versus those with pure domestic exposure (GSSTBRIC v GSSTDOME) and, along a similar dimension, we focus on long core European exposure relative to periphery exposure (GSSTCORE v GSSTPEMU), as discussed in Strategy in Style, November 4, 2011. Both of these, however, reflect the desire to capture the prospects of undervalued stocks who’s end markets are less likely to be constrained by the ongoing deleveraging of European economies.

 

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Sun, 11/06/2011 - 20:50 | 1851659 Oswald Spengler
Oswald Spengler's picture

Europe needs a Putin to put its house in order.

Sun, 11/06/2011 - 21:24 | 1851714 paarsons
paarsons's picture

Good Citizens of Metropolis!

I've got bad news.

Goldman Sachs runs the world.

In fact, Mr. Blankfein fucked Putin back in high school. Everybody is Lloyd's bitch.

What Goldman wants, Goldman gets.

That's a wrap.

http://fucklloydblankfein.blogspot.com

Sun, 11/06/2011 - 21:35 | 1851745 knukles
knukles's picture

Hey, check out this ZH mention on the Saturday entry on the fucklloyd cited above.

--------------------------------------------

I surfed the internet.  My favorite site is www.zerohedge.com.  It's run by a former Goldman-Sachs flunkie who's changed his evil ways for the betterment of mankind.

But be careful.  Many of the users are insane.  They worship gold and silver.  And often refer to paper-bugs as sheeple and punks.

If you have the audacity to belittle gold or silver, the powers-that-be might send thugs to your house.  These hooligans will then savagely proceed to fuck you in the ass while killing your poor old sweet mother.

All of this is true.  Cross my heart and hope to die.  So please be prudent when dealing with these wild beasts.

-----------------------------

Hah hah.  And he thinks we're fucking sickos :)

Sun, 11/06/2011 - 21:43 | 1851769 oldman
oldman's picture

Hey Knukles,

Thanks----I feel flattered to be among this bunch of crazies

insane  worshippers of gold and silver    hooligans   wild beasts

Shit, its a goddamned honor to be amongst you

I almost wished I was still drinking

I'd sure as hell celebrate this moment!                       

thanks to one and all                  om

I suppose the only thing left is to work on becoming, as you so elegantly put it, Knukles------ 'fucking sickos'

Sun, 11/06/2011 - 22:57 | 1851878 Bollixed
Bollixed's picture

"These hooligans will then savagely proceed to fuck you in the ass while killing your poor old sweet mother."

I wish you wouldn't use the word 'fuck' in the same sentence where you're talking about my poor old sweet mother.

Good God man, have you no sense of decency?

 

Sun, 11/06/2011 - 21:39 | 1851760 oogs66
oogs66's picture

lagarde is on her way, stiletto's and all

Sun, 11/06/2011 - 20:50 | 1851660 Whoa Dammit
Whoa Dammit's picture

This is a road map of what Goldman wants so that Goldman can save its own ass.

Sun, 11/06/2011 - 20:55 | 1851670 Tyler Durden
Tyler Durden's picture

You may be surprised that about 98% of the time, what Goldman wants ends up happening. Speaking of which, is it time someone noted the affiliation of America's ambassador to the one country in Europe that is not a complete basket case: Germany?

Sun, 11/06/2011 - 21:02 | 1851683 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

Only 23 years at Goldman, and he wants to take a massive pay cut to be a "public servant doing god's work."  Well ain't that special?

Sun, 11/06/2011 - 21:07 | 1851692 fonzanoon
fonzanoon's picture

You may remember Philip Murphy as "Joe the Policeman" from the "Whats goin down" episode of "Thats my mama!". Ladies and gentlemen Sexual Chocolate! Sexual Chocolate!.

Sorry you are probably right that there is an important aspect to all this but as an average shmuck just trying to make it in this world I just think things are rigged the way they are and I am losing my zest for the conspiracy aspect of things. I mean no disrespect. I will go watch live quotes and hope gold moves up a few bucks in the pre markets.

Sun, 11/06/2011 - 21:21 | 1851710 knukles
knukles's picture

Hah!  Ain't any conspircy angle to it. 
It's all just plain simple fucking fact.
When (who was it Vivinar?) somebody at GS said that they "own the world", it was not too far from the fine art of understatement. 

A fellow I know has Tourettes.  It's so cool to yell "Goldman" at him and listen to his tirades.  I think that he thinks they're evil, but I dunno.  Can't seem to get a straight answer out of him.

Sun, 11/06/2011 - 21:37 | 1851754 Cabreado
Cabreado's picture

You sound defeated.

Watch out for depression, then.

Sun, 11/06/2011 - 21:24 | 1851720 Kimo
Kimo's picture

The question is, does this paper put the public on the other side of the trade Goldman wants.

Sun, 11/06/2011 - 21:38 | 1851758 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

so he bought himself an Ambassadorship. No news there. Granted "Goldman Sachs is the second largest bank in Germany." One thing's fer sure...whether or not the German and American people are speaking with one voice the German and American leadership sure are. Under the moniker "campaign contributors of the world UNITE!" no doubt. Anywho "where's the friggin' money" comes to mind in this fiasco. But that's why God gave us France--a reminder that nation trumps personal interest every time- try as we might to "destroy the country to save it."

Sun, 11/06/2011 - 21:53 | 1851787 Whoa Dammit
Whoa Dammit's picture

Hi Tyler,

I am not surprised that what Goldman wants, Goldman gets, but I am very tired of it happening while the rest of us are expected to just quietly eat our gruel at the orphanage. 

Sun, 11/06/2011 - 23:41 | 1851952 Sunshine n Lollipops
Sunshine n Lollipops's picture

After all they've done for us and that's the thanks they get? Ingrate!

Mon, 11/07/2011 - 07:43 | 1852375 injahmountains
injahmountains's picture

Agreed...  and their driver appears to be the Council on Foreign Relations.

Sun, 11/06/2011 - 20:54 | 1851666 NOTW777
NOTW777's picture

nice term paper but unusable

Sun, 11/06/2011 - 20:55 | 1851669 fonzanoon
fonzanoon's picture

"From an equity market perspective, we think the near-term outlook is likely to remain volatile, with the market continuing to trade the implied risks (in either direction) of the evolving news flow"

Holy shit.....these guys are good.

Sun, 11/06/2011 - 20:58 | 1851672 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

The usual drivel.  Cry me a river for the political hacks and the banksters.  Here's the real bitch.

When, not if, the piigs default, thousands of businesses will be left with debts in the new stronger, stub euro, and earnings in lira, pesos, or goat droppings.  That doesn't work.  A 50% haircut might be reasonable on private debt, but you can't negotiate a blanket deal because every contract is different, and exchange rates will fluctuate wildly.

Lots of shops who are hanging in there now will crash, and that will naturally create a downward spiral.  Not a soft landing, or a pretty sight.

Sun, 11/06/2011 - 21:43 | 1851767 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

there is no haircut. "it's voluntary." get it? i mean there i was thinking i was good at stand-up comedy...i ain't got nothin' on the EU. Now "proceed as normal" and everything will be jusssst fiiiiinnnnne. http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=EXsNGYtlWRs

Sun, 11/06/2011 - 21:02 | 1851681 tuku2400
tuku2400's picture

Italy's number is about to be called

Sun, 11/06/2011 - 21:03 | 1851685 MFL8240
MFL8240's picture

Isnt this the same Crime circus (Goldman) that ruined te USA?  

Sun, 11/06/2011 - 21:04 | 1851686 TradingJoe
TradingJoe's picture

YEP!

Sun, 11/06/2011 - 21:09 | 1851697 TradingJoe
TradingJoe's picture

I don't really need GS to "tell" me that markets will grind higher to finish year "earning" pension funds the much needed 8% to then fall down enough to start printing, Greece is just a side show, Italy will "start" the HEIDELBERGER Monster!

Short term LONG, long(er) term SHORT! After the "election" LEAVE!!!

Sun, 11/06/2011 - 21:22 | 1851716 Schmuck Raker
Schmuck Raker's picture

What took you so long?

Sun, 11/06/2011 - 21:17 | 1851707 chump666
chump666's picture

Wall Street is getting ready for the EURO end game. 

Sun, 11/06/2011 - 21:21 | 1851712 Al Gorerhythm
Al Gorerhythm's picture

I hear a piper. Wondering what his gig fee is.

Sun, 11/06/2011 - 21:26 | 1851726 JohnG
JohnG's picture

I am so fucking tired of these damn sociopaths "planning" the future.  Even me, simple man that I am, know better than to try to "plan" ANYTHING more than a couple of days in advance.  It's laughable.

I would like to take JUST ONE of the oligarchs to a homeless dude, a starving family, and have them see the people that are COUNTING in these fucks to "run the world."  This should get thim a good, hard, cold, slap in the face in what living is.

Let them spend a few days sleeping on concrete.  Felling like a king when you get a few cans of cat food.  Literally eating rats, even cockroaches to survive.

The limo's and soft pillows should be a cold comfort after they see the lives of the millions of "little people" who depend on sociopaths "planning" thier futures.

It's just sick.  Totally fucked up sick.

 

 

(Yes, I'm in a fucking bad mood, and I had a  good day today.....)

Sun, 11/06/2011 - 21:37 | 1851753 Al Gorerhythm
Al Gorerhythm's picture


I would like to take JUST ONE of the oligarchs to a homeless dude, a starving family, and have them see the people that are COUNTING in these fucks to "run the world."  This should get thim a good, hard, cold, slap in the face in what living is.

You could do that but the response would be; "Get these guys in a uniform. They need a boost in morale and a tour in Afghanistan would would do the trick". Those sociopaths would then front the TV cameras and wank on about how mortified they were about the loss of life of another poor slob. A few fake sobs and back in the limo.

Sun, 11/06/2011 - 21:53 | 1851788 JohnG
JohnG's picture

 

 

If I could do that. 

That's the thing, they just don't give a damn.  And therin lies the real problem.

Sun, 11/06/2011 - 21:44 | 1851771 Cabreado
Cabreado's picture

"...and have them see the people that are COUNTING in these fucks to 'run the world.'  This should get them a good, hard, cold, slap in the face in what living is."

The more likely outcome would be chills, followed by an erection.

Sun, 11/06/2011 - 21:57 | 1851790 JohnG
JohnG's picture

Look inside yourself and see how fucked up you may be.

Sun, 11/06/2011 - 22:04 | 1851796 Cabreado
Cabreado's picture

JohnG,

If you knew how badly you misconstrued my comment, you would be duly embarrassed.

Sun, 11/06/2011 - 22:13 | 1851804 JohnG
JohnG's picture

Explain then, please.  I'm always open to change in my opinion, yet respect that others are enititled to thier own.

Sun, 11/06/2011 - 22:42 | 1851857 JohnG
JohnG's picture

 

 

On translation of your psudonym only,  I think I see that you are about as pissed off as I am.

Therfore, my statement above is retracted.  Please accept my apology. My bad.

JG

 

(apparently I'm just jaded.....and old.)

Mon, 11/07/2011 - 00:11 | 1852013 Cabreado
Cabreado's picture

John, no worries.  Apology accepted.

We need to support each other, and I surmise you know that, and I also have flown off the handle when tired and cranky (and you said you were).

And if it helps at all, remember that we're all aging at an inappropriate rate these days.
We need to pace ourselves, and keep our wits about us (all of us), as it's going to get worse before better.

Take care, my friend.

 

Mon, 11/07/2011 - 00:52 | 1852073 JohnG
JohnG's picture

Agreed.  Thank you sir,

Sun, 11/06/2011 - 22:44 | 1851860 JohnG
JohnG's picture

This comment has been retracted.  See above.

Sun, 11/06/2011 - 21:26 | 1851729 navy62802
navy62802's picture

Gold is kicking it up a notch! Up a half percent right now ... $1800 by tomorrow night?

Sun, 11/06/2011 - 21:37 | 1851756 Bobbyrib
Bobbyrib's picture

On Apmex's website the 2011 quarter ounce gold Philharmonic coin seems to be sold out. Maybe people in Europe really are preparing for the worst and buying gold. I've been monitoring Philharmonic coins for a little while now with everything going on in Europe. There doesn't seem to be a shortage of tenth ounce though. The more these coins become sold out on major websites, I believe the closer the EU is to ending.

Sun, 11/06/2011 - 21:44 | 1851770 navy62802
navy62802's picture

One can only hope.

Sun, 11/06/2011 - 21:50 | 1851782 oldman
oldman's picture

I saw some very big premiums on gold coins in France two weeks ago----a couple of hundred buks over spot for US 1 once coins and equal to the premiums on francs and sovereigns---pretty surprised, I was                 

 

Sun, 11/06/2011 - 22:02 | 1851794 Bobbyrib
Bobbyrib's picture

Yeah, seems like the smarter people in Europe getting ready for the defaults.

Stupid Question: Is gold the best currency to have when countries are transitioning to another currency?

 

Sun, 11/06/2011 - 23:17 | 1851895 JohnG
JohnG's picture

Yes.

Sun, 11/06/2011 - 21:45 | 1851773 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

"We had to destroy Greece to save it." Amazingly "Greece agreed...and still does."

Sun, 11/06/2011 - 21:52 | 1851774 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Sometimes a " Head Line", tells the whole story!  The  SLUM MANNS Public relations crew is at work

 

   What does the other O'Tool have under management Tyler?   " HinT ?   Bill and Warren combined"  

Sun, 11/06/2011 - 21:54 | 1851789 FlimFlam
FlimFlam's picture

GS gets what it wants, but only in a shrinking playground.  Reality---much larger than GS---ultimately prevails.  I like what George Soros said:

 

George Soros, who knows a thing or two about finances, likens the threats to Europe and the United States to that of the dying days of the Soviet regime.

“Something similar is happening in the West,” Mr. Soros told Bloomberg Television. “You had a financial crisis where the market did actually collapse, but it was kept alive by the authorities. People don’t realize that the system has actually collapsed.”

Sun, 11/06/2011 - 22:03 | 1851795 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Gerorge Soros respectfully, is an ass hat!   Tell that " BAZOOKA" wanabe to park his cash, before he becomes part of the " soylent green' , being served up! Any person that is long right now , should enjoy the eupho`ria!

 

   This is nothing more than the Hamptons paying the 2012 mortgage!

Sun, 11/06/2011 - 22:26 | 1851835 FlimFlam
FlimFlam's picture

Soros parked his cash in July.  He takes his own observations and advice seriously.  I love what he says after "the market collapsed in 2008."  Nothing.

Sun, 11/06/2011 - 22:50 | 1851869 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

hey, Y/C!

way_2_'respectfully' call him an ass_hat!

                               <^+"bazooka wanabe"+^>

Sun, 11/06/2011 - 23:37 | 1851941 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Mis pels.  my best to ya Slewie. Short aud/usd just below the fibi, on the 103-107 move.

Sun, 11/06/2011 - 22:05 | 1851797 bob_dabolina
bob_dabolina's picture

I agree with Goldman here. 

Not that my opinion matters. What Goldman wants Goldman gets. It was solid analysis regardless. 

Sun, 11/06/2011 - 22:16 | 1851811 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Bob? Goldmans is short the Euro< 

  Technically and Fundamentally, " Goldmans is wrong"<    Emotionally, is another q/a session. 

Look at bond and credit charts! Look at " Sovereign publishing" Ex; econ charts.

 

    Bob! Look at the cost of commodities! Look at the cost of financing Default! I'm not trying to be mean.

 

  It's reality! Enjoy the wave. 

Sun, 11/06/2011 - 22:31 | 1851824 bob_dabolina
bob_dabolina's picture

I understand.

-AIG Quant

Sun, 11/06/2011 - 22:28 | 1851836 FinLen
FinLen's picture

YenCross,

I agree with you.  Does Goldman and their ambassidor to Germny hve the abilty to run the Euro down hard before they get long again?  Wont they grind it up further before that so they cn get sort at a higher level?

Thanks for your consideration.

FL  

Sun, 11/06/2011 - 22:51 | 1851871 JohnG
JohnG's picture

 

 

Goldman has the ability to do whatever the fuck will profit Goldman.  So yes.

Sun, 11/06/2011 - 23:41 | 1851951 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

FinLen Thanks for your comment.  Do you know what a " YARD" is in FX trading?  

 

  The MoF and Kampo spent just under 3x10 of them last week.

Mon, 11/07/2011 - 00:00 | 1852000 FinLen
FinLen's picture


The MOF and Kampo in Japan sold 30 billion units last week?  Does that mean dollar up vs yen?

Thank you Yen Cross.

Mon, 11/07/2011 - 01:24 | 1852119 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

" YES  "

Sun, 11/06/2011 - 22:08 | 1851801 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

 

 

  • if: the markets are rigged,
  • and:  the markets are rigged,
  • then:  the markets are rigged,
  • BiCheZ
Sun, 11/06/2011 - 22:13 | 1851810 Fozzy Slippers
Fozzy Slippers's picture

Necktie party long over do. Lloyd better fuel up your space ship.

Sun, 11/06/2011 - 22:22 | 1851829 ricocyb13
ricocyb13's picture

Long Heidelberger Druckmaschinen ;-)

Sun, 11/06/2011 - 23:48 | 1851968 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 If the Swiss and Japs are [ FUDGE PACKED}, and Gold is spoken for. Where do ya run for security?

 

    I missed the call by 1.5 weeks. Shame on me! I'm a " Perfectionist"...

Sun, 11/06/2011 - 23:50 | 1851972 Georgesblog
Georgesblog's picture

Goldman Sachs has said a lot of things besides their prayers. The best laid plans of thieves and hustlers come to ruin. The die is cast and will come up Snake Eyes. History says that Hell is coming to breakfast.

http://georgesblogforum.wordpress.com/2011/11/02/the-daily-climb-2/

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!