Goldman's Sigma X Hints Who The Next Contagion Target Is

Tyler Durden's picture

Five months ago, when Italian yields were still tame in the 3% ballpark, and not 7% where they are today, we suggested that based on trading patterns and overall volume in Goldman's dark pool, Italy may be about to experience a "Greek episode." Days later we were proven right as Italian yields and spreads started their relentless move wider, with only those who had access to Sigma X being able to get an advance whiff of what was about to happen. Well today we are happy to report that the German diversion may have worked: the truth is that nobody appears to care about Germany. Instead what everyone does seem to care about, is the nation with the greatest combined debt (government, corporate and household) to GDP in the world. Yup. The UK.

As a reminder:

And here is who is most active today:

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jcaz's picture

Wondered how long it would take to get around to The Island....

Decay is Constant's picture

Is it just me, or are things happening at a faster pace? 

Greece seemed to go on for years. 

Italy, once it started seemed to move more quickly.

France and Germany might take a bit longer since they are bigger dominoes with bigger inertia.

The UK, another big domino.

Perhaps snowball is a better analogy.  Bigger and bigger with more momentum.

jcaz's picture

Yep, everyone thinks they can manage credit, until they can't-  like 2008, it just goes thermonuclear........

Oh regional Indian's picture

The debt crisis and Fukushima have so much in common, it is not funny.

At every level imaginable. And the UK, rich richer, poor drunker. 24X7 pubs. Such a brilliant idea.



Buck Johnson's picture

Your correct, this snowball started a few years ago and then while it rolled down hill it picked up more snow making it bigger and speed with momentum which is causing this whole situation to come to ahead.  Remember back over a year ago Spain and Italy was quiet about them having any problems also and look at what the UK has been doing, quiet as a church mouse.  They have to be invested heavily in the mainland of Europe, they don't have enough people on the island to invest that much money and debt in.  This hammer is coming down and coming down hard and the UK is hiding until they can't hide anymore just like Spain and Italy and Belgium with Drexia (which is still in major trouble).

gojam's picture

I agree that the UK is deliberately keeping a low profile.

But don't forget the £275 billion's worth of QE since 2009. £75 billion only announced several weeks ago by the BoE.

The UK gov is portraying itself as a safe haven, yields on 10 years dipped below Germany earlier today but they are buying UK bonds on the secondary market which is the main reason why yields are low.

I suspect they, unlike the ECB and Eurozone, have the weapons to fend of problems atleast until after France has defaulted. Plus look at the Government debt, UK only really becomes exposed if others default and UK banks come into the firing line.

It's why I don't like the nationalistic blame game being played out everywhere because everybody is in the shit and everyone will go down, everybody is just playing for pride and history's judgement.

Quincy's picture

BOE isn't buying enough gilts to keep yields as low as they are nor are they the reason why gilts are outperforming treasuries. Plenty of large institutional investors have been plowing money into gilts for solid reasons - UK controls its currency, somewhat functional political system (vs. US), began austerity more than a year ago, etc.

They pulled the same "Sigma X predicts the UK is next" in July or August.

Goldenballs's picture

It takes years of being run by total dickheads to get in the position we are in.

philipat's picture

G. Brown Esq, never elected and, as Chanceller ("Treasury Secretary") sold off a large part of the UK's Gold reserves into the open market at historically low levels (The "Brown bottom") to create more entitlements.


Strangely, both Labour in the UK and the Democrats in the US (In summary, Socialists) still seem to believe that even more borrowing/spending is the answer to too much existing debt. This can't end well.

Tommy5454's picture

I don't know how these wealth managers fail. No need for bonds, buy ES at 3pm, sell at 3:59.

dcb's picture

14:00 14:30 myself it's gross isn't it.

Tommy5454's picture

Yea yours is better. 10 ES points down in less than ten minutes on no news. I'll take it but wow, I guess 3:59 is too late.

AUD's picture

The real question is - Will Sid the Sexist now have to sell his arse on the streets of London rather than just that time he got stuck in Bangkok with no money?

Joe Sixpack's picture

What happens when you remove parasitical paper (i.e., derivatives, etc.) from being counted as GDP? US and UK as well as probably Germany will look even worse comparatively.

Azannoth's picture

You mean like Germany 'finding' 50B under the pillow?

JW n FL's picture



You mean Trillion.. not? billion.. right.

SwingForce's picture

Yes but they have recapped their banks, Germany & France have not. Kyle said so.

terryfuckwit's picture

yes and our banks are completely honest and transparent??

terryfuckwit's picture

relative to the big lie that covers the smaler lies from all the lying bastards.. i will run with the sigma x pool being the lesser of todays conglomerate of world wide aldrige prior... fuck pig liar... banks and their political puppets

scuse language

richard in norway's picture

barclays has to rollover 68% of it debt next year, opps

Smartie37's picture

And coming round the turn, it Barclay's in front, with RBS coming on strong, with UniCredit now fading..........

and into the finish, up from the back of the pack it's......................................BAC !!!!!!!!!!!! 

What a race folks---------BAC went off at 45 - 1 !

Our next race starts in two days, with MS slotted as the favorite.......................

monopoly's picture

Yes, was way to quiet in the land of the Queen and Duchess. We will need a bigger bowl of popcorn. This movie is going to last a lot longer than we thought.

mayhem_korner's picture



Sorry, can't help it, but the fish on the chart are hysterical.  There I said it.

"Pandemic" should be ringing through the airwaves again soon.  It's been a while...prolly since the Mexican pig flu.

Nate H's picture

what is source of that graph? not charles hugh smith??

i dont trust those numbers.

in any case UK is not highest in the world, just highest on that graph (Ie. Ireland much higher, unless that is lumped into UK somehow)

but, main point is accurate, UK is f**ked

topcallingtroll's picture

According to bloomberg total debt per gdp was ranked as follows in 2007


The united states was 16.

That is why we still have some wiggle room.

masterinchancery's picture

But when you throw in entitlements and other vote buying obligations, the US surges to the front at something like 850% of GDP--US #1!

TruthInSunshine's picture



It's been front and center for those monitoring their Doppler whilst ignoring cnBSc & Bloomturd all along.

peekcrackers's picture


+1 .. lmao

spell that in your spaghetti o's


ping's picture

I'm waiting for it to spread to the Czech Republic, Estonia, Austria and Roumania. Then the crisis 'IS A PIG FUCKER'. 

GeneMarchbanks's picture

Yeah. Not to mention when you add America it's PIIGSFU.... nv

TruthInSunshine's picture


But as some have said, the tallest midget in the room stands proudly (though I'm not sure who is the tallest midget, anymore - Chanos just got back from Hong Kong and said his personal observations only reconfirm his observations on a short China thesis).

*Disclaimer: Chanos is among the very select few people commenting on economic matters whose opinion I put any 'stock' into.

Learn more and know less's picture

Surely PIIGS + France + UK + US = PIIGS FUK US

Hopium Dealer's picture

Jon Corzine is looking for work.

TruthInSunshine's picture

Obama/Biden 2012 just commissioned the USS Corzine, and they're going to plaster it with campaign slogans and do a water tour on it in the spring.

Here's video of the recent ceremony:

USS John Corzine Commissioning

youngandhealthy's picture

When the shit hit the fan....!

This story is going to be extremly interesting to follow in the "international financial press".

Today in his "prime-time-column" in the FT Martin Wolf felt "obliged" to defend the strong Anglo-Saxon view of the "things of matter" in the financial world.


I bet this will not show-up anywhere soon until it is to late.


The combined EMU debt-to-GDP is around 75%....UK??? Ur guess 

Ghordius's picture

FT Martin Wolf is not the only one that will have to go overdrive.
At stake is the UK view of the single Nation/Currency/etc.
Good luck at devaluing alone...

GoodMorningMr.VanRumpoy...'s picture

Might expedite the plan to convince  the British Populous to join the Euro right before it collapses.

Right now the political class, Tony Blair, Brown, and even tory leaders, are out publicly claiming that the U.K. has no choice but to quickly  join the Euro are they will face economic catastrophe.

JW n FL's picture




the 6 page memo last month, giving England Veto Power was interesting as well.

Thanks for Sharing!

oogs66's picture

No wonder Cameron is begging for ECB printing

terryfuckwit's picture

British intelliance now enjoys a good relationship with IRA old enemies in Ireland... We are not going to recap the banks we are going to kneecap the banksters... 

Ellesmere's picture

So how long before Sterling gets hammered ?