There are simply no words to describe this.
We opened on Monday a long NZD/$ recommendation, partly on the basis that the Fed would ease monetary policy today with additional non-conventional measures. At the same time we pointed out that New Zealand’s economy looks relatively well protected against cyclical weakness. During the week both hypotheses were confirmed with much stronger GDP data in New Zealand than expected and the extension of “Operation Twist” by the Fed.
At the same time, however, long NZD/$ exposure is also strongly correlated with overall risk sentiment. The continued weakness in US macro data, as illustrated by today’s Philly Fed index and deteriorating political news flow from the Eurozone, led to a sharp deterioration in broader risk sentiment.
With much of the macro rationale for the recommendation now past and in line with our short SPX recommendation earlier today, we cut long NZD/$ exposure for a small potential loss of 0.7%.