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Goldman's Tom Stolper Conducts Sunday Hitfest On The USD

Tyler Durden's picture




 

It is one thing for Tom Stolper to release precious tidbits about what is not going to happen in the future on a weekday - for those we are very grateful. But doing so on god's (or is that Goldman's) day is truly a first. In a note just blasted out, it would appear there is no rest for the Stolper, and according to the world's most admired FX strategist (remember: batting 0.000 is just as useful as batting 1.000), "Dollar downside forces on the rise" and that Goldman is positioned "short the USD again"... Just as Goldman was positioned long the Russell 2000 literally the minute the market topped on Thursday (no joke - check it). And to think it was only three weeks ago that the same strategist saw downside risks for the EURUSD to 1.20...

Goldman Sachs at its goalseeking best:

Dollar Downside Forces on the Rise

1. We are Positioned Short the USD Again. The Dollar is likely to embark on a round of broad weakening. The underlying BBoP situation has not improved at all, suggesting that the trend decline remains intact, as we highlighted in the last FX Monthly. But over the last couple of months, the increase in broad risk aversion has helped the trade weighted Dollar to a 6% rally, broadly following the pattern of what we have seen in 2008 and 2010. In both cases, the subsequent relaxation in risk aversion led to a substantial move lower in the Dollar, which then reasserted the underlying down trend. Earlier this week, following the Fed meeting, we initiated fresh short Dollar positions against the EUR, CAD and MXN on the back of this view.

2. Many Risks Remain but Skew has Changed. The key point is that we think much of the bad scenarios have been priced by the market and that there is more scope to surprise on the upside from here. That does not mean that downside risks have all gone. We and our European economists remain concerned about a derailing Greek PSI negotiation, contagion to Portugal or the impact on Eurozone growth from continued fiscal tightening. The upcoming elections in France could create policy uncertainty as well. But our worries are widely shared already and hence likely reflected in market prices. Against that, cyclical indicators continue to improve in all regions, even in Europe now. And on some of the most threatening policy issues in the Eurozone signs of tentative progress can be identified, for example in relatively smooth ESM and Fiscal Compact negotiations. From a tactical point therefore, the scope for further escalating risk aversion may be smaller than the relaxation of already rich risk premia. This would imply more downside risk for the Dollar and less downside risk for the EUR than before. A spike down to 1.20, as we had signaled earlier as an important near-term risk, now appears much less likely.

3. Why We Like the CAD and MXN. US activity has surprised more notably relative to expectations than any other region so far. This has already led to some market repricing in growth sensitive assets. Our current long recommendation the Russell 2000 initiated by Noah Weisberger and team, as well as the current short UST recommendation by Francesco Garzarelli and team follow this logic. If a broader USD decline now follows on the back of further declining risk premia, North American currencies should be the obvious beneficiaries. On one hand they should benefit from better external demand from the US, and on the other, they will benefit form broader USD weakness. In addition, the Mexican central bank has maintained a relatively hawkish stance, as Alberto Ramos points out. In Canada, the BBoP remains very favourable and in both currencies substantial speculative short positions suggests ample room to rally in case of broader USD weakness, as Robin Brooks has highlighted in his regular IMM reports.

4. Better US Growth Won’t Help the USD. As discussed in the previous section, we believe that better US growth rather acts as a USD negative factor because of the dominance of risk correlations. In fact, these risk correlations have become even stronger since repeated intervention in the JPY and CHF has reduced the attractiveness of these traditional safe have alternatives. Moreover, even when we try to nail down empirically how US growth correlates to the Dollar, the overwhelming result is that there simply it is neither strong nor persistent. Fiona Lake looked at this in some detail in a recent daily and only finds some evidence pointing towards a negative relationship in recent times - consistent with the dominating risk correlation mentioned before. Two important points in that respect: Large and mature economies with deep asset pools invested globally may react differently to growth shocks than small open economies. In the former group, a positive growth shock may predominantly trigger a search for riskier investments abroad and hence currency weakness. To the contrary, in a small economy a positive growth shock may trigger capital inflows from foreign investors and hence appreciation. As our regular analysis of the TIC data highlights, better US growth numbers in recent years have consistently failed to improve capital inflows into the US. 

5. Cross Atlantic Monetary Policy Differentials and Risk Premia. FX markets continue to face the challenge of having to compare very different non-conventional policies across the globe. Are two ECB LTROs a more dovish signal than the new Fed commitment to keep rates at exceptionally low levels until late 2014? We don’t really know. But we would make the following observations. First, the ECB policy easing via rate cuts and the first LTRO has already been reflected in rate and FX markets. Eonia has already dropped back to the lows seen during the Global Financial Crisis. On a relative basis, the dovish Fed surprise is more recent and – maybe – not fully be priced yet in FX markets. Second, the ECB LTRO not only affects the FX markets via a straight interest rate correlation but also via reduced funding stress. As a back stop to the financial sector, the LTRO has therefore reduced the likelihood of tail risk events. This in turn may help a gradual further relaxation of Eurozone fiscal risk premia and more EUR/$ upside from current levels. Similarly, the dovish Fed surprise will likely affect the Dollar negatively via broader risk sentiment in addition to the more direct rate channel. In the last FX Monthly and even more so in a Global Markets Daily this week by Robin Brooks, we have tried to quantify a risk premium reduction via several different approaches and they all point towards 1.40 and above.

6. Global Imbalances Remain Pronounced. With all the focus on the Dollar and European risk scenarios, it is important to not forget the bigger picture of global FX markets. In the latest Global Economics Weekly, Themos Fiotakis has updated our work on global imbalances and found further evidence that not much has changed since the global financial crisis. Imbalances remain large, highly dependent on demand differences and remarkably insensitive to FX moves. This suggests currency markets have scope – and in fact need – to move very substantially in order to help reduce imbalances. The current 9% trade weighted undervaluation of the USD is likely not big enough, therefore, to help induce a declining US current account deficit and global rebalancing. Looking at valuation signals in this context suggests that some countries with external vulnerabilities will ultimately see further currency weakness – or at least substantial underperformance. TRY, INR or HUF spring to mind on this context.

7. “Wall of Money” Implications for Reserve Currencies. Finally, to add to the USD negative tone, there is evidence of re-accelerating capital inflows into EM. We have discussed this dynamic extensively in the last 18 months under the title the “Wall of Money”. One very interesting aspect of this dynamic, discussed by Themos Fiotakis and Robin Brooks in another Global Markets Daily, is the implication of funding. For many Asian surplus currencies the natural anchor currency is the Dollar, and with the Fed arguably being one of the most dovish central banks in the world, “Wall of Money” flows have a high likelihood of being predominantly funded out of USD. To prevent appreciation of their local currencies, Asian central banks then accumulate these Dollars in their FX reserves, and subsequently diversify the Dollars into other liquid reserve currencies. In other words, the combination of “wall of money” flows, a dovish fed, systematic reserve accumulation and diversification boils down to one big leveraged global USD short trade. Of course during period of risk aversion this dynamic goes into reverse. However, as we explained above, the skew in the key risk scenario has changed, which suggests the USD negative dynamics will prevail for now.

 

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Sun, 01/29/2012 - 12:26 | 2107232 Motley Fool
Sun, 01/29/2012 - 12:28 | 2107234 Long-John-Silver
Long-John-Silver's picture

and Silver

Sun, 01/29/2012 - 13:13 | 2107263 Dapper Dan
Dapper Dan's picture

Would you like your gold and silver in 45 ACP or 9mm?

A Novel Opportunity

Whether or not the apocalyptic prophets are right, tumultuous economic conditions will inevitably continue to nudge investors to invest in precious metals – especially gold and silver. Considering the penchant of investors in emerging economies like India and China to buy gold, which is a deeply rooted cultural status symbol in those nations, the gold market will continue to thrive as the world spirals towards the apocalypse next December. Consequently, gold and silver bullets will probably increase in value as more people begin to prepare themselves and their families to survive in a post-apocalyptic world.

Moreover, if the apocalypse doesn't occur your precious metal ammunition will still be worth more than you paid for it, and if the world does end you can hand over your investment to any thieves - through the barrel of a gun at +/- 1000 ft/sec.

Simply put, the end of civilization doesn't come around too often, and it presents a unique opportunity to do things we've never done before. Things like shoot valuable precious metals out of our firearms to protect our other precious things.

How cool is that?

http://apocalypticammunition.com/

Sun, 01/29/2012 - 13:28 | 2107341 Money 4 Nothing
Money 4 Nothing's picture

Sweet link! I looked through their inventory and I didn't see any Silver bullets to fix the problem were in though.

Sun, 01/29/2012 - 18:58 | 2108134 gmrpeabody
gmrpeabody's picture

Goldman shorting the dollar...

Guess that means a consolidation in PMs is on tap this week.

Sun, 01/29/2012 - 20:34 | 2108270 philipat
philipat's picture

On the contrary, what this means is that the squid is actually buying dollars (From You). The public voice of the squid is never to be acted upon other than conversely because providing free accurate information on anything to the proletariat is not God's work.

Sun, 01/29/2012 - 18:09 | 2108058 ironsky
ironsky's picture

OK. So it's a good idea. Still going to shoot my Warsaw Pact surplus for target practice.

Sun, 01/29/2012 - 12:46 | 2107268 SeverinSlade
SeverinSlade's picture

I guess this is a confirmation that a Greek default ISN'T priced in.

Sun, 01/29/2012 - 13:46 | 2107384 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

@ Motley Fool

+ $55,000!

Durn tootin' about "el oro para las putaz!"

***

I review this weekend's Barron's at my blog, including Jonathan Buck's article on Davos, among various other items (including Goldman Sachs' own Abby J. Cohen's stock picks) of interest in this issue of the paper. Interested in taking a look?  Gmail me at my name and promise you will behave.  I ask for good behavior as I have had two spammers/bots/trolls get through the gates.

 

Sun, 01/29/2012 - 14:36 | 2107538 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Nice blog Motley Fool!  Keep it up!

Maybe I should start one...     :)

Sun, 01/29/2012 - 16:06 | 2107817 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

I refuse to join a club that would have me as a member...

~Groucho Marx

Sun, 01/29/2012 - 17:54 | 2108022 He_Who Carried ...
He_Who Carried The Sun's picture

I can't believe this garbage:

Second, the ECB LTRO not only affects the FX markets via a straight interest rate correlation but also via reduced funding stress. As a back stop to the financial sector, the LTRO has therefore reduced the likelihood of tail risk events.cial sector, the LTRO has therefore reduced the likelihood of tail risk events. This in turn may help a gradual further relaxation of Eurozone fiscal risk premia and more EUR/$ upside from current levels. Similarly, the dovish Fed surprise will likely affect the Dollar negatively via broader risk sentiment in addition to the more direct rate channel. In the last FX Monthly and even more so in a Global Markets Daily this week by Robin Brooks, we have tried to quantify a risk premium reduction via several different approaches and they all point towards 1.40 and above.

I have no reason to trust this analysis! Whom are they trying to mislead? Since when is massively DILUTING a currency (via LTRO's) a bullish event on which that very currency should rise? The dollar will go up, the EUR is worth shorting again...! That's all.

Sun, 01/29/2012 - 12:29 | 2107233 Manthong
Manthong's picture

Uh oh.. next EU activity might cause an an explosive dollar upside move.

They know something.

Sun, 01/29/2012 - 12:31 | 2107239 Long-John-Silver
Long-John-Silver's picture

In this game of musical currency's Gold and Silver have reserved seats and just sit and watch as the others lose all their chairs.

Sun, 01/29/2012 - 12:32 | 2107241 ABG LINE
ABG LINE's picture

Place a "Stolp-Loss" on this trade.

Sun, 01/29/2012 - 13:11 | 2107304 Popo
Popo's picture

This is serious stuff.  Stolp joking around.

Sun, 01/29/2012 - 13:24 | 2107324 Money 4 Nothing
Money 4 Nothing's picture

Caution, the Stolp sign at the busy DXY Euro intersection has been removed. Procede at your own risk.. off preferably.

Sun, 01/29/2012 - 12:35 | 2107247 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

If Stolper is to be faded and the USDX is going to have another massive run to the upside.

 

What happens to the "Goldbugz"???

What if Stolper recommended going long gold or silver?

Would he be "cheered" or "jeered" on this site?

Sun, 01/29/2012 - 12:40 | 2107257 Tyler Durden
Tyler Durden's picture

Stolper is a currency "strategist" hence he would very likely not advise on precious metals. Instead, for advice on PMs one should go to Econ Ph.D's who shorted gold ever since it broke the 200 DMA over a $100 ago lower.

Sun, 01/29/2012 - 12:49 | 2107273 SeverinSlade
SeverinSlade's picture

Robo throws a weak jab. TD capitalizes on a big opening and throws a killer right cross right into Robo's chin. KO'd

Sun, 01/29/2012 - 12:58 | 2107283 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Roubini reminds me of the magicians that work at little kids birthday parties.

"Goled iz een a bauble!"  Said Roubini as he took a hold of his cape and flashed it around the top hat on the table in front of him.

[poof!]

"Where did eet go?"  Roubini raised his eyebrows and looked around the room.  A few boys and girls followed his gaze and looked around.

"It's in your hand, I can see it!"  Said the little tot, pointing at Roubini's white glove.

Gold again proves it is not the safe haven many had hoped for, breaking the 200-day moving average, the first time since 2009 and signaling that prices may drop to US$1400/ounce.

What a duche.

Sun, 01/29/2012 - 13:50 | 2107405 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

+ 1

 

Nouriel had his one brief shining moment in the sun.  Now he is ridiculed for being just another douchebag.  I guess that means he has not had his smile on while gold climbed its way back ove $1700, with MUCH MORE to come (IMO).

Sun, 01/29/2012 - 14:15 | 2107480 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Economists should stay away from finance.  They (economics and finance) are two seperate beasts, although both equaly flawed. 

Does Roubini chart?  I bet he uses crayons to draw vampires around a ten year gold chart and says he does.

"Diz iz a goled vampire.  Eet seez dat goled iz een a bauble, end eet wantz to suck eets blud!"

Sun, 01/29/2012 - 14:33 | 2107531 Freebird
Freebird's picture

Agreed, the guy was pretty good pre-crash, then it appeared he
became a mouthpiece for vested interests, then reverted to more independent views but still making lame metal calls. Guess he's still on the payroll.

Sun, 01/29/2012 - 13:18 | 2107315 LowProfile
LowProfile's picture

I get the kneejerk reaction to Robo's permabulishness, but (s)he asks a pertinent question:  What if the USD rallies hard?

In that event, I expect a pullback in the order of ~30% from the last high - SOMETHING GOLD HAS DONE SEVERAL TIMES ALREADY.  In fact, I expect it to happen several times more before the inevitable "reset".

So expect volatility (they will shake the weak hands hard) and keep some dry powder.

The endgame is the same.

Oh and...  Bitchez!

Sun, 01/29/2012 - 13:23 | 2107323 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

It's best to think of Robo as an it.  Like a fembot or a Thai lady boy.

Sun, 01/29/2012 - 13:39 | 2107372 KickIce
KickIce's picture

Or at what point does the dollar "strengthen" and gold also increases in price.  IMO, that's the decoupling, or fear we need to force the ponzi out of business, until then it's just another BTFD opportunity.

Sun, 01/29/2012 - 16:27 | 2107869 LowProfile
LowProfile's picture

I don't expect that to happen except on short timeframes, although if the euro tanks hard enough, gold and the USD could rise together a bit.

 

Sun, 01/29/2012 - 19:02 | 2108139 KickIce
KickIce's picture

That won't happen until sheeple figure out that the dollar is junk, which will come through increasing food and/or fuel prices.

Sun, 01/29/2012 - 16:08 | 2107824 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

Robo throws a weak jab. TD capitalizes on a big opening and throws a killer right cross right into Robo's chin. KO'd

Why go through all the hassle? Just kick him in the balls... Oh no wait... Robo has no balls... Sorry, carry on...

Sun, 01/29/2012 - 14:33 | 2107532 dcb
dcb's picture

if we assume channels hold, the 75% of this up move is about over (down move for the dollar). if we break above the channel I wonder how much further it will break. although I always postion my portfolio with the assumption that long term we will see further dollar weakness.

Sun, 01/29/2012 - 19:22 | 2108171 The Monkey
The Monkey's picture

That's funny. My portfolio is positioned exactly opposite. The US is fast loosing remaining politically tenable monetary policy - nominal rates. Commodity currencies and emerging markets still have decent nominal rates which can be manipulated to stimulate credit. As worldwide growth slows, these countries can weaken their currencies markedly without causing an uproar. The Fed can only wish it were so in the US.

Looking for long-term USD strength. Anything can happen short-term, but after the reaction to QE2 (and the increase in nominal rates), the Fed will be playing an increasingly dangerous game with trading partners and US voters.

May take a while to play out, but the Fed is in between a rock and a hard place of it's own making.

The doves are in control and they won't be able to contol themselves with core CPI dropping. Fed credibility looks momentarily firm, but it will take a nosedive soon enough (without any durable impact to core CPI IMO).

Sun, 01/29/2012 - 17:47 | 2108016 chinaguy
chinaguy's picture

Remind me again, which Investment Bank was it that got busted for selling clients toxic MBSs out the front door & shorting the shit out of them out the back?

Sun, 01/29/2012 - 12:46 | 2107269 ISEEIT
ISEEIT's picture

I can only speak for myself:

ROBO?

I adore your beautiful tits.

Beyond that ( is there really such a thing?) I say hold your short (shorts?) and keep your eye on the prize.

You do provide us all a valuable 'gut check' Robo (Tyler).

In the end though all will in time return to the beginning.

Always has, always will.

Sun, 01/29/2012 - 13:48 | 2107402 Excursionist
Excursionist's picture

I shorted EUR/USD at 1.3107 last week based on the latest Stolper recommendation, and I'm losing money on the trade.  Someone call me a waaaaaambulance.  Is Stolper's perfect streak coming to an end?

Sun, 01/29/2012 - 14:38 | 2107421 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Once in a while Goldman gets it right (even when frontrunning their customers).  They sold their holding of Molycorp (MCP) at its IPO at $14.00, and of course recommended that people buy it...  MCP then went on to over $60.  It is now around $30.

Sun, 01/29/2012 - 15:13 | 2107673 oddjob
oddjob's picture

MHFT rec. on MCP was the kiss of death.

Sun, 01/29/2012 - 15:42 | 2107761 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

+ 1

Bruce Krasting wrote that he sold his around $50, did not want to be too greedy.

Sun, 01/29/2012 - 16:25 | 2107865 lotsoffun
lotsoffun's picture

not to be disrespectful of such an astute poster here - but i might posit 'sometimes goldman gets it wrong'. ??

Sun, 01/29/2012 - 14:20 | 2107500 ISEEIT
ISEEIT's picture

Just cover. Might see 1.35 bfore it hits 1.25. We evil speculators must be stopped out.

Sun, 01/29/2012 - 18:56 | 2108131 The Monkey
The Monkey's picture

Waiting for the bubble-busters with SPXU (3X inverse S&P)... Guidelines that I use for this liquidity fueled market considered by many to be "impossible" to short.

a) Dollar-cost average as you would with a long position. Only buy after the market is heavily overbought and trading at the top end of it's range, which is now, if you are a believer in a secular bear. Volume and VIX must be very low, nearing or at extremes. Look for a persistent bullish expansion in the silver/gold ratio and narrow spreads on high yield.

b) Look for bullish oriented technicians to call a liquidity melt-up based on the charts.

c) Buy chunks on bullish sentiment price spikes. Keep a lot of dry powder.

d) Use SPXU. The other leveraged shorts have a far greater rate of decay.

No stops. Cover when counterparty risk rears it's head in a panic most visible in spreads of financial bonds. This can run a long ways, so be patient.

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 16:11 | 2110647 squale
squale's picture

I routinely play in the FAZ/TZA 3x inverse ETF's... I was lookiing at the Proshares stuff.... the SPXU seems to have good volume... but I'm a little confused at what you mean by the SPXU having much less of a rate of decay versus something like FAZ/TZA, etc.?  aren't all these 3x ETF's compounded daily.. thus they would all perform the same over the long term of holding them.. which long term holding these things is a nightmare!!!

Sun, 01/29/2012 - 17:51 | 2108023 chinaguy
chinaguy's picture

Last week's record number of euro shorts had increased again another 9% by Friday. Someone is going to make a killing on that squeeze...& I'm selling into strength - Ha.

Sun, 01/29/2012 - 14:41 | 2107563 DosZap
DosZap's picture

Robot,

What happens to the "Goldbugz"???

Not a damn thing...........................we sit, we wait, for the inevitable.

Strong hands do not waver.

Sun, 01/29/2012 - 16:29 | 2107872 LowProfile
LowProfile's picture

Robo does have a tendency to confuse mo-mo's with buy-and-hold.

Sun, 01/29/2012 - 15:54 | 2107786 The Monkey
The Monkey's picture

I am long 30 year treasuries and 3X short the S&P 500 with 96% of my assets. The money is cheap, liquidity everywhere.

The printing presses are about to roll. Come and get me !

Sun, 01/29/2012 - 15:59 | 2107802 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

What good is a Stolper trade without good targets. I assume this is a reprint of his last one with a stop at 1.29? A good sized hiccup will take EURUSD back to 1.29. I yearn for the good old days when a Stolper trade was an epic event. And by the way if he did say buy gold it should make one wait for the next excellent buying opportunity.

Sun, 01/29/2012 - 12:35 | 2107248 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

Stolper can't always be wrong, can he?

Sun, 01/29/2012 - 12:41 | 2107260 bank guy in Brussels
bank guy in Brussels's picture

Good question ... How DOES Stolper keep his job at Goldman? THAT is the story for ZeroHedge to detail!

So on the surface he's a goofball making lots of wrong calls ... So wrong he's a money-making contrarian indicator.

But is he right some of the time, where we don't hear about it on ZH, so Stolper gets to the 55% correct level and still makes a trading profit?

Or is he a shill to help dupe retail into buying what Goldman is selling, or vice-versa ... and Stolper keeps his job just for his credibility in lying and spinning a story ... or for being the 'useful idiot' Goldman laughs about, all the way to the bank?

Sun, 01/29/2012 - 12:53 | 2107276 Tyler Durden
Tyler Durden's picture

We have posted every of his calls in the past two+ years, together with the occasional mea culpas, and have always followed up where these end.

Sun, 01/29/2012 - 13:07 | 2107298 Alchemist1
Alchemist1's picture

I wonder if Stopler's hit ratio is higher than yours though Tyler.. You guys have been calling for stocks or treasuries to collapse since spooz was at 850 and 10s at 3.5% in April/may 2009.. At the same time you guys post "Bobs world" here without the same critique even though the guy is always off on his timing and never lays out his case even half as good as Stopler's , even though I am a fan of neither. There is justno need to make things personal.. If you don't like someone's track record like Stopler's - don't post his content.. Otherwise it just makes overall content on ZH come across as childish and paranoid

Sun, 01/29/2012 - 13:21 | 2107316 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

As an outsider looking in, I don't think that is accurate.  I think that Tyler is long one thing (gold) and although posts daily short advice, not really short anything in particular.  Yes they post Rosie, and the Phoenix dude, and other bears, but I don't think I have seen Tyler write he is uber short stocks except in the short term (daily) trades.  He afvizes not to own them, but I think that is more along the lines of 'Why invest in the ponzi when you can hold your own asset?'

I think Tyler's greatest strength is that he does not give technical advice past some daily advice (which I would guess is done by Nic).  Tyler gives you the moves, and the macro advice on how it will play, but I don't think Tyler has ever come out and said 'Dow 5000 in a month' or anything.

This blog is a news source, and Tyler allows comments from various sources, however opposing.  I think that is why it is fair and balanced.

Sun, 01/29/2012 - 13:24 | 2107317 LowProfile
LowProfile's picture

Clearly, you and I are not reading the same blog. 

The only thing I'm aware that Tyler has recco'd is the "Risk Basket vs. Spy Compression" trade and the "Barton Biggs Opposite Day" trade.

Oh, and pointing out that gold has outperformed every other fucking thing since...  2001.

Sun, 01/29/2012 - 13:55 | 2107428 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Touché, + 1

Sun, 01/29/2012 - 13:25 | 2107330 SeverinSlade
SeverinSlade's picture

There's a big difference between what SHOULD happen and what WILL happen at least in the short to medium term. The markets are rigged which is why what should happen almost never does. Look at ZH's projections though...always proven accurate in the long term. Remember ZH said that Greece would default back in early 2010. Said the EFSF was DOA. Said the hedgies would hold Greece hostage...all right.

Sun, 01/29/2012 - 14:46 | 2107578 Whiner
Whiner's picture

Yep, Slade, sometimes reversals happen slow and sometimes faster
Like when currency watchers see that $15 tr ++++on CB balance sheets, something like this might happen too fast

2012 might end up being most famous as the year in which the world defected from the US dollar as the global currency of choice. Imagine the rest of the world doing the math and, little by little, beginning to do business in their own currencies and investing ever less of their surpluses in US Treasuries. It constitutes nothing less than a slow but sure decimation of the dollar.

That may not be a bad thing for the United States. The country's gargantuan debts can never be repaid as long as the dollar maintains anything close to its current valuation. Given the state of the country, all that's really left supporting the value in the dollar is its global reserve currency status. If that goes and the dollar slides, maybe the US will be able to repay its debts and start fresh. That new start would come without the privileges and ingrained subsidies to which Americans are so accustomed, but it's amazing that the petrodollar system has lasted this long. It was only a matter of time before something would break it down.

Sun, 01/29/2012 - 14:23 | 2107505 Excursionist
Excursionist's picture

Respectfully, I disagree with the 'don't make it personal' notion.  You just can't write better comedy when someone is so perfectly wrong with such consistency.

Joking aside, Stolper has a big podium and a loud microphone where he publishes.  If some poor simpleton working at the Idaho Fireman's Retirement pension fund actually listens to this asshole, then yes - fuck Stolper and the horse he continues to ride in on.  It isn't fuckin' funny when a high school graduate who's worked all his fuckin' life at some miserable piece of shit state government job finds out his "defined benefit" pension is short because of poor investment decisions and he has to work as a Wal-mart greeter during the last decade of his life just to make ends meet.

Stolper's calls are (rightfully) treated as a game on the board, but what he does for a living isn't a fuckin' game.

Sun, 01/29/2012 - 16:12 | 2107833 lotsoffun
lotsoffun's picture

i was junior at a large 'firm' many years ago.  a man that recently paraphrased 'let them eat ipads' was their chief economist.  one of the top traders told me one day ' whatever he says - we instantly bet the other way'.  vote up if you can guess his name.  i am sure he had the general population concerns in his best interest?  and still has today.

Sun, 01/29/2012 - 16:15 | 2107844 lotsoffun
lotsoffun's picture

i was junior at a large 'firm' many years ago.  a man that recently paraphrased 'let them eat ipads' was their chief economist.  one of the top traders told me one day ' whatever he says - we instantly bet the other way'.  vote up if you can guess his name.  i am sure he had the general population concerns in his best interest?  and still has today.  so has anything changed?  is stolper looking out for clients (that get sold 'shitty deals') best interests?  has there been really much down side for them?  why change now?

 

Sun, 01/29/2012 - 17:57 | 2108035 Excursionist
Excursionist's picture

I don't know Dudley personally, but his comment to a working class crowd (in Queens no less) about iPads was at best completely out of touch and at worst a damned, dick-ish, douchy Dudley thing to say.

Sun, 01/29/2012 - 23:42 | 2108541 The Monkey
The Monkey's picture

As wealth disparity continues to grow under the Fed asset inflation regime, "Let them eat cake" comments from idiots like Dudley pretty much tell us how disconnected the Fed is from the average Joe..

Let's get those printing presses rolling!

Sun, 01/29/2012 - 15:28 | 2107721 ShoeShineBoy
ShoeShineBoy's picture

you sir, you are one true 'alchemist' of the true facts

TD has been consistently showing who the naked kings are, and if your eyes defying you to see that, that is your very "personal" trouble.

 A few of the very many good calls on this site, PMs aside,

 anti-Whitney index and calls, MBIA short squueze, BAC short, Greek default despite EU heads bs, coming ECB QE under whatever the name they pick, anti-Paulson recovery fund calls, etc. etc. etc.

Sun, 01/29/2012 - 16:17 | 2107849 The Monkey
The Monkey's picture

I think the great contra indicator of 2011 was Bill Gross' call to essentially short treasuries. Took some balls to load up on the opposite side, but the zero coupon 30 year rallied 53% over the year. 60+ % if you bought in April at the top of yields (when Bill was screaming loudly).

After all the oscillations in long-term rates, the decent rally in the USD & The Dovish Fed promising the Bernanke put, I think the biggest shocker in 2012 would be another big year for treasuries & the USD.

Buying the Fed is very expensive these days. Real rates in the form of deflation may begin a persistent rise in spite of any central bank action.

Wholesale deflation looms.

Sun, 01/29/2012 - 16:59 | 2107922 Rock the Casbah
Rock the Casbah's picture

but I come to ZH for childish and paranoid content. :)

Sun, 01/29/2012 - 16:00 | 2107806 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

Good comedy acts need a straight man

Sun, 01/29/2012 - 17:20 | 2107975 css1971
css1971's picture

Stolper's clearly misinformation. Statistically, 0 for 8 is highly unlikely to be otherwise.

 

Sun, 01/29/2012 - 13:15 | 2107310 HardlyZero
HardlyZero's picture

I have to note the timing of this "alert".  Going forward many more of these Saturday/Sunday alerts coming our way.  This must be to offset the Euro collapse coming next week...so the collapse must be coming.  The more Saturday and Sunday alerts the higher the VIX on Monday.  Something must be going on.

Sun, 01/29/2012 - 12:37 | 2107251 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

Iran: Oil will reach $150 a barrel after EU sanctions (AP)

Iranian parliament postpones debate on proposal to halt oil sales to EU (DPA)

Awwwwwwwwww

Sun, 01/29/2012 - 12:41 | 2107261 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

IMO all posturing - with some trend versus "ritual posturing" like other fleets have every year.

Sun, 01/29/2012 - 13:07 | 2107288 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

The Lame Stream Media has done a good job of making me feel absolutely jaded.  I know longer think that 'This is it!' for Europe, or Iran, or the US.  This will all drag on until the Mayan god Babelflash decends from the heavens to wipe out humanity on Dec 21st.

[Puts on tin foil hat]

 In the meantime I'm going to the store and buyin' me a unicorn.

Sun, 01/29/2012 - 13:44 | 2107389 KickIce
KickIce's picture

There will come a point where math, followed closely by fear takes over.  But yeah, I'm a amazed by how long they've been able to keep the Titanic afloat.

Sun, 01/29/2012 - 13:57 | 2107434 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Yes, all of this has been dragging along tiresomely slow...  On the other hand, the slow velocity of our collapse has given me more time to prepare.

Sun, 01/29/2012 - 13:59 | 2107444 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

Iranian oil minister: Iran will cut oil exports to some countries soon (Reuters)

All isn't lost!

Sun, 01/29/2012 - 14:40 | 2107559 KickIce
KickIce's picture

That's the plus side, the downside is it gives TPTB more time to purchase assets with 0s and 1s.  Real Estate and commodity possesion is their ultimate objective.

Sun, 01/29/2012 - 14:03 | 2107457 prains
prains's picture

The boat is wedged onto a rock

Sun, 01/29/2012 - 14:48 | 2107592 Theosebes Goodfellow
Theosebes Goodfellow's picture

I'm with you, Mister H. Roll of Reynolds Wrap, check. Flying pigs, check. Lube for inserting head up buttocks, check. Lip balm, check. Yup, I'm ready!

Sun, 01/29/2012 - 12:38 | 2107254 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

Sun FED and Moon ECB form the tides, another cycle arrives, EURUSD soon to 1.425. Perhaps even a spring tide?

Sun, 01/29/2012 - 12:47 | 2107271 Schmuck Raker
Schmuck Raker's picture
Om mani padme hum
Sun, 01/29/2012 - 13:02 | 2107289 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

groovy

Sun, 01/29/2012 - 12:39 | 2107255 yogibear
yogibear's picture

It's just a matter of time before the rest of the world takes away the reserve currency status from the US. For a while now the privilage has been abused by the Federal Reserve Bankers and the US policy makers.

The Federal Reserve and US politicians will only be fiscally responsible when forced to. Just like the PIIGS in Europe. 

Sun, 01/29/2012 - 12:43 | 2107264 Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

I tend to agree, though 1973-77 I agreed with you more

Sun, 01/29/2012 - 12:41 | 2107259 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

Oh, by the way, these PigMen "experts" are still employed and paid high 6 figure salaries regardless of the accuracy of their calls.

 

Unlike the self-employed doomer "expert" crowd, who are still struggling to make ends meet after missing one of the greatest bull markets in history.

A rising tide lifts all boats.

Amazingly, "investors" are still willing to pay millions for "research" from these big wire houses, whose calls are at best no better than Bob Prechter's.

Think about it.

How many millions do you think it costs for guys like Kostin and his staff to publish those fancy "kickstart" presentations week in, week out?

Yet they are still employed, living on Park Ave., getting driven to work in limos, and all the rest.

Sun, 01/29/2012 - 12:48 | 2107272 Tyler Durden
Tyler Durden's picture

For a brief intro to Newton's third law, click here

Sun, 01/29/2012 - 14:37 | 2107543 dcb
dcb's picture

except when you make sure you keep printing enough so that any debt destruction is made up with new fresh money. (inflation targeting)

Sun, 01/29/2012 - 14:39 | 2107556 dcb
dcb's picture

since we gapped up and went up all day on udn, the europeans would be crazy not to take some profits from the move. euro lower monday (god knows but if up it is now outside the bollanger band 95% confidence interval and should drop

Sun, 01/29/2012 - 13:02 | 2107286 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

 <=== a rising tide lifts all boats

 <=== a rising tide lifts all boats that are still afloat, BiCheZ!

and there's a fair # of em down there which will hafta finish oxidiZing w/out any air!

Sun, 01/29/2012 - 13:03 | 2107291 Mr. Lucky
Mr. Lucky's picture

What if the boat is tied to the dock?

Sun, 01/29/2012 - 13:04 | 2107294 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

What if there is no tide nor boats and ya'll are dreamin'?!

Sun, 01/29/2012 - 13:09 | 2107302 Mr. Lucky
Mr. Lucky's picture

If it was only a dream.

Sun, 01/29/2012 - 13:28 | 2107342 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

When I'm in the middle of a dream, stay in bed, float upstream.....

It is.  The dollar ain't real.  Finance is built on the dollar.  Finance ain't real.  Same with economics.  Economics ain't science.  The economy is a sham.

Sun, 01/29/2012 - 16:11 | 2107830 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

What if there were no moon?... Then there wouldn't even be any tides...

Sun, 01/29/2012 - 13:31 | 2107351 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

the docks float and are attached to pilings w/ loops or rings, so the docks go up & down, too, as do the seagulls and flotsam

what the hell is the matter w/ you people here?  why aren't you row-row-rowing down the stream like everybody else?

don't you know that if you row upstream, nessie will getcha?

Sun, 01/29/2012 - 16:14 | 2107837 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

Yeah... But how do you KNOW if she floats?

A: "We'll build a bridge out of her!"

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zrzMhU_4m-g

Sun, 01/29/2012 - 13:08 | 2107300 Dermasolarapate...
Dermasolarapaterraphatrima's picture

Bogle said long ago these guys have no better clue then the average investors who read and do a little DD.

Remember that WSJ game when they placed five top Wall Street brokers against a group of monkeys throwing darts at the board?

The monkeys won every time.

Sun, 01/29/2012 - 13:59 | 2107445 GeorgeHayduke
GeorgeHayduke's picture

Yep. Life is coming at you regardless of your plans. So, live it and enjoy it without being a pain in the ass for someone/everyone else. (I know that last part is difficult for some people.)

Sun, 01/29/2012 - 14:06 | 2107464 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

@ RobotT

Yes, the astronomical salaries of the PigMen grate me too.

You could have done very well all of these years just by being diversified!  That's it!  Just diversification.  Diversification including physical gold and silver of course.  5% - 10% would have covered a lot of losses brought forth by the PigMen.

I think that Tyler has it right, Newton's Third Law will eventually bring many PigMen down.  Nature (God) often metes out a rough but harsh justice.  It will be fun to watch.  Especially if Biggest POS on the PlanetTM Jon Corzine winds up in jail.


Sun, 01/29/2012 - 15:06 | 2107653 DosZap
DosZap's picture

Robt Trader

Unlike the self-employed doomer "expert" crowd, who are still struggling to make ends meet after missing one of the greatest bull markets in history.

Your make some great comments, this is not ONE of your SHINING moments.

Why do people own Gold & Silver Robot?.

If your that stupid, let me clue you............................because they HAVE money, and want to protect it.

Simple enough for you?

Sun, 01/29/2012 - 15:45 | 2107769 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

+ .338 Lapua

Sun, 01/29/2012 - 12:45 | 2107266 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Oh sure, USD lower, until the Greek default and Italian 10 year goes back over 7%.

Then it's Euro down, dollar up.

Sun, 01/29/2012 - 13:03 | 2107290 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Is that like G's up hoes down?

Sun, 01/29/2012 - 13:17 | 2107313 Money 4 Nothing
Money 4 Nothing's picture

That Bizznach can't swim, she bound to drizzound.

Sun, 01/29/2012 - 12:52 | 2107275 mendigo
mendigo's picture

is it wrong only because stolper observed it or was it a priori wrong

he must be a very sane person

Sun, 01/29/2012 - 13:06 | 2107296 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Leave Kant out of this!

;)

Sun, 01/29/2012 - 13:08 | 2107299 Manthong
Manthong's picture

OMG..  you've stumbled upon a proof for a quantum principle of finance physics..

Like in particle physics, the fact that Stolper observed something means it can't be true anywhere else.

I wonder if your Nobel be in economics or in physics.

Sun, 01/29/2012 - 13:33 | 2107355 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

It will be physics.  There is no "Nobel" award for Economics.....

Which one of these isn't like the other?  Which one of these doesn't belong?

[Please note which is not an official "Nobel" Prize]

Nobel Prize List:

http://www.nobelprize.org/nobel_prizes/

Sun, 01/29/2012 - 15:12 | 2107649 Manthong
Manthong's picture

Well butter my buns and call me biscuit.

Maybe some popular fluff like this gave me some kind of misundercomprehension (fabricated Bushism). 

http://www.nobelprize.org/nobel_prizes/economics/laureates/2008/krugman-lecture.html

Sun, 01/29/2012 - 15:46 | 2107772 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Krugman's prize lecture is one of, if not the, most important speeches ever given by a PhD.  It outlines exactly what the NWO has in store.  He says, and I quote,

Now it is the firms that matter, not the countries.  Firms are the productive ones.....

I am very surprised at how few have picked up on this.  WGT has been saying this for years (that there are those out there that are trying to get rid of Statehoods) yet no one....no one has picked up on the fact that Krugman spoke explicately about how sovereigns matter no more, and that it is the Firm that is prodcutive.

I have titled ths speech.....

The Rise of Firms:

http://www.nobelprize.org/mediaplayer/index.php?id=1072

Sun, 01/29/2012 - 15:49 | 2107775 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Oh, and he even calls his ideas "perverse" (talk about psycho babble) and touches his nose when he lies.  He even notes how he touches his nose when he lies.  This is a fascinating piece.

Everything old is new again....

Sound familiar?

Sun, 01/29/2012 - 15:09 | 2107664 Tuco Benedicto ...
Tuco Benedicto Pacifico Juan Maria Ramirez's picture

Yes, "The Stolper Effect".

Sun, 01/29/2012 - 13:20 | 2107318 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

L0L!!!

great comment, even if i will never understand it, entirely!

and just a few daze b4 your zHb'day, too!

have a happy if i don't see you...

Sun, 01/29/2012 - 13:00 | 2107287 WTF2
WTF2's picture

Stolper or Stifler?  [Stifler thinks champagne is being poured onto his head when he's actually being urinated on from the balcony

Stifler: I can taste the bubbles.

Sun, 01/29/2012 - 13:09 | 2107301 lemosbrasil
lemosbrasil's picture

American Bull masrket is game over....

.MA200 is slowdown like 2008 and the Dow Jones made a double top with bearish sign MACD and RSI14 in monthly chart

Vix is above range 15, its a dangerous range watching the last 18 years.

See here: http://pracompraroupravender.blogspot.com/2012/01/o-bull-market-americano-em-risco-visto.html

Sun, 01/29/2012 - 13:16 | 2107311 ozziindaus
ozziindaus's picture

What concerns me is why most people outside of the financial industry are even speculating? Even the most seasoned stock brokers aim for 51% or better WIN/LOSS. Would you welcome a stock broker into your place of work and give him a 15 minute lesson every month on what you do best and expect him to succeed?

Sun, 01/29/2012 - 15:07 | 2107655 Tuco Benedicto ...
Tuco Benedicto Pacifico Juan Maria Ramirez's picture

Hey!  Hillary made $100,000 trading cattle futures in the 1980s thanks to her reading an article in the Wall Street Journal.  Anything is possible!

 

Tuco

Sun, 01/29/2012 - 15:38 | 2107749 Matt
Matt's picture

Investing is not rocket surgery. We'd probably be better without them, if everyone just managed their own finances and invested on their own, instead of giving away their money to hedge funds and investment banks to pay out large salaries and massive bonuses even when they lose money.

Besides, I suspect most people who invest on their own spend, on average, a helluva lot more time on it than 15 minutes a month; probably 2 hours per week minimum, 30-40 hours a month average.

Sun, 01/29/2012 - 16:45 | 2107896 ozziindaus
ozziindaus's picture

I would venture to say the average 401K contributor spends 15 minutes a year on their investments.

Sun, 01/29/2012 - 16:55 | 2107916 css1971
css1971's picture

More like an hour a day. Minimum.

Buy Low Sell High. You just gotta know what low and high are.

Day trading is a mugs game, you can't beat the pros when they can come in and massacre a market, but they have a quarterly or yearly mindset. The amateur on the other hand can take a long view; years to decades. You just have to look around you and see what is happening to the world, and understand what it means to the economy and therefore stocks, commodities, bonds.

Sun, 01/29/2012 - 13:24 | 2107325 NervousRex
NervousRex's picture

It's both wrong because it came from stolper, and because it was intrinsically wrong.

Whether truth flees him, or he flees it we do not know.

 

Sun, 01/29/2012 - 13:29 | 2107345 VelvetHog
VelvetHog's picture

All Heil the GOD-SQUID!

Sun, 01/29/2012 - 13:40 | 2107354 deflator
deflator's picture

 This Stolper is a brilliant salesmen, tells his "marks" exactly what they want to hear like, "resurgence of U.S. manufacturing". I doubt there will be a significant, lasting resurgence in U.S. manufacturing. While the call gels with high unemployment and the downward pressure on wages making U.S. manufacturing more competitive it doesn't mesh with oil hovering at $100 a barrel much less what it would be with a combined resurgence in U.S. manufacturing and a weaker USD.

 

 I do like contemplating what China's response to a centrally planned, "resurgence in U.S. manufacturing" would look like.

  At any rate, Goldman is no doubt positioning for a flight to USD event that is probably designed to bring crude oil down.

Sun, 01/29/2012 - 13:55 | 2107430 ozziindaus
ozziindaus's picture

I'm already seeing it. Most of my suppliers are now competing very well with China here in the US and I'm not even talking about the south. These of course are not the multinationals who are still imbedded in the EM's and forcing legislation to maintain their competitiveness through non free trade and currency manipulation. They're not mom 'n pops either. Eventually, the market will speak and force the EM's into a Japan style collapse while demand is met with companies within driving distance.

What a dream it would be to front run Wall street in a manufacturing renaissance here while they're busy eating their own shit offshore. 

Sun, 01/29/2012 - 15:50 | 2107776 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

American bearings (Timken) are NOT competing well vs. Japanese, INA (Germany) and SKF (Sweden) in Peru, at least bearings for vehicle replacement parts.

And Chinese bearings are SO FRIGGIN' CHEAP there, but you get what you pay for...

Sun, 01/29/2012 - 16:43 | 2107891 ozziindaus
ozziindaus's picture

NTN in NA is thrashing INA (at least in the needle bearing sector) on quality and price. In fact, Continental (owned by Schaeffler who own INA) are forced to use their competitors bearings in some Automotive applications. 

Sun, 01/29/2012 - 21:54 | 2108377 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

That's very interesting ozzii, I'll try to thank you again next time I see you around.  Actually I know much more about the bearing aftermarket in PERU than here.

Almost 50% of our sales are Schaeffler Korea's KBC brand.  We also buy from Korea's Iljin (double-row bearings for car wheels) and "Hub & Bearing Assemblies for newer cars.

Sun, 01/29/2012 - 13:44 | 2107388 boogerbently
boogerbently's picture

...I can see the logic....

The Euro has NOWHERE to go but up. The dollar declines (by comparison.)

As ALWAYS, not strength, but "relative" strength.

Sun, 01/29/2012 - 13:48 | 2107399 boogerbently
boogerbently's picture

....along with the hinted at (coming) QE, which further empowers equities and devalues the dollar.

Sun, 01/29/2012 - 13:55 | 2107429 boogerbently
boogerbently's picture

All the "expert analysts", whom we revere, lost their a44 in the recession like everyone else.

WTF do they know.

I NEVER had anything to do with the stock market until Oct/Nov '08.

I made a KILLING since then (as a TOTAL novice) gold and since Apr. '09, Las Vegas Sands.

Technical/fundamental analysis irrelevant, read the news.

 

Sun, 01/29/2012 - 13:55 | 2107431 oogs66
oogs66's picture

so maybe he knows that greece will just hand their purse strings to germany? or to goldman?

Sun, 01/29/2012 - 14:33 | 2107527 Disenchanted
Disenchanted's picture

But doing so on god's (or is that Goldman's) day is truly a first.

That would be Saturnday for that crowd...

Sun, 01/29/2012 - 15:02 | 2107637 non_anon
non_anon's picture

it astounds me how that federal reserve note has lasted this long

Sun, 01/29/2012 - 16:15 | 2107841 Monedas
Monedas's picture

Me too !  Electronic money has given the "Fiati" (like the literati) new possibilities to run the Ponzi scheme to the bitter end ! They will ride the fiat tiger untill aborigines in the Congo basin buy their bananas with Visa cards !  Monedas  2012  Visionary Staff Hoarder !

Sun, 01/29/2012 - 16:45 | 2107895 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Excellent comment with extra verve!

A BIG + 1!

Sun, 01/29/2012 - 15:03 | 2107641 Tuco Benedicto ...
Tuco Benedicto Pacifico Juan Maria Ramirez's picture

Dan, I have always recommended that preppers maintain a proper "lead to silver" ratio.  You are one step ahead of me.  Good luck!

 

Tuco

"Tsssskk!  Revolvers!?"      --Tuco Benedicto Pacifico Juan Maria Ramirez    "The Good, The Bad & The Ugly"

Sun, 01/29/2012 - 16:05 | 2107816 dogismyth
dogismyth's picture

they speak, and you listen.  The cycle is still intact otherwise there would be NO articles from any of the TBTF bank analyst and no comments to waste your time on.

Sun, 01/29/2012 - 19:42 | 2108203 chump666
chump666's picture

Goldman, the can kicking madness is good for the end of Jan.  Europe will sink in 2012. Greece through to Hungry right onto France and back to Germany and anyone in between are done.  Plus, China is probably crashing now.  So you gotta battle EUR selling and USD buying (Asia).

I hope you f*ckers lose cash again on your FX specs.  Hopeless investment bank.  Leave that to hedge funds, who are smarter than you a-holes.

Oh and equity markets have finally topped.

Sun, 01/29/2012 - 22:51 | 2108452 michaelsmith_9
michaelsmith_9's picture

Risk-on is likely to continue.  There are multiple markets confirming the risk-on trend, which may last several months possibly.  The USD index does not have clear impulsive qualities to the upside to really have a bullish conviction, which means that the strength in recent months will likely be completely retraced.  Here is a look at the DX, SPX, CL, AUDUSD, and EURNZD.  http://bit.ly/x7a7IN

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 01:38 | 2108723 chump666
chump666's picture

-- Germany's finance minister issues warning against Greece

re: On Monday, German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble issued an unusually blunt warning in an interview with The Wall Street Journal that the euro zone might refuse to grant Greece a fresh bailout, pushing Athens into default unless it convinces Europe it can overhaul its state and economy.

Now lets see if the ECB can handle all fronts at once. 

Mon, 01/30/2012 - 01:44 | 2108730 chump666
chump666's picture

GS are cheeky a-holes:

* IMM CTA data - EUR net shorts at record 171,347 contracts as of Jan 24

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