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On Gold's Recent Resilience
Some might be surprised by the title's positivity, but while the barbarous relic has meandered in an ever-compressing (triangle pattern) series of waves in the last few months, it has rather notably outperformed relative to global risk aversion, CFTC positioning, and central bank balance sheet dynamics - especially in the last few weeks. Whether the yellow metal's zero-yield is now 'technically' attractive to safe-haven flows relative to the NIRPs of Germany and Switzerland - or in fundamental anticipation of the next bout of central bank largesse, Citi's global macro strategy group remain bullish of the precious metal and the charts below suggest they are not alone.
$1650 seems like the key 'technical' line in the sand for another leg up as the small (and large) triangles come into play...
but Gold's resilience in the face of...
1. a 'slowing' or contracting global central bank balance sheet...
2. volatility in Citi's risk-aversion index (GRAMI)...
3. and a notable 'apparent' derisking based on CFTC Futures & Options Net Positioning...
It seems there is either a degree of buying in precious metals that is anticipating an increase in risk-aversion OR it is anticipating central bank largesse. What is critically clear is that gold's gyrations and uncertainty relative all of these three indicators since the end of LTRO2 has fallen suggesting its diversification and 'hedge-ability' for both risk-on (liquidity-driven exuberance) and risk-off (safe-haven sourcing in a NIRP world) is increasingly appealing.
One thing is sure - the view that precious metals are a put on political stupidity remains front-and-center - as fundamentals take a back-seat to the monetary addiction of the world's advanced economies (and perhaps tonight's negative nominal GDP print for Japan - leaving the nation in deflation 50% of the quarters of the last 5 years - is priming for more print-and-be-damned excess - though China's reverse-repo test should be a concern for all those 'hoping' for stimulus extravaganza)
Charts: Citi
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Gold bitchez.Have a nice week.
That triangle seems endless. Are we there yet?
It has been an exercise in patience. Wait for it...
This wedge is running out of wiggle room.
Been real long--John Homes long--since 1999. I gots me patience.
It's "HoLmes" and I have no idea why I know that.
And his costar Linda Cockgobbler.
I don't know either.
Who reputedly bore 19 children without morning sickness
Do infants usually have morning sickness? :)
government confiscated gold and they will do it again....
gold won't save anyone.
US government can label all gold owners a terrorist and detain them indefinitely without a warrant along with their gold holdings.
That is the law of the land. police, CIA, FBI will enforce those laws on you and your family.
folks, things are getting serious. laws are being passed to prepare for war here and abroad. few good congressmen are kicked out. banksters reign free, multinational executives reign free. CFR, CIA, TLC, bilderbergs are in full control now. you have nowhere to run. enjoy brainwashing on TV.
government confiscated gold and they will do it again....
Well actually everyone gave it up because they trusted the government and thought they could help and they did get $20 dollars for their $20 gold coins......things are a tad bit different this time around. OK.....I'm kidding....thing are a LOT different this time around.
GetZeeGold yes in 1933. Only 10% of the gold coins were turned in and a few days later gold was revalued from $20 to $35. . Only 10% of everyone that had them trusted the government and turned them in. Gold bullion coins were against the law until I think 1974. Then the US Mint started producing Gold and Silver Eagles for us poor citizens to buy and bury in our back yards. Jim Rickards says gold will be eventually revalued to save the USD and there will be a 90% windfall profit tax on all of us that have it and trade it above board. Silver is real winner in the end. No government can confiscate silver. Buy a few green monster boxes of silver eagles and stick them under your bed. Bury your gold stuff in Ammo boxes .
Multiple protein shakes throughout the day.
Does no one read anymore?
I think the move is real and immanent. Gold stocks have been front running the anticpated move in the metal for a few days now having been batttered down pretty good over the last 4 months. IMO, it seems that since there is little in the way of price inflation, the move in gold won't likely be an inflation phenomenon as much as a crisis of confidence; the latter haing significantly greater deleterious effects on general economic welfare.
'Little in the way of price inflation"...........WTF!!?!?! guess you haven'tbought groceries lately..... and prices are going higher with crop yields tanking because of drought conditions..... even highly manipulated CPI numbers can't keep hiding the uptick in food prices
and btw - the 'Arab Spring' was more about unemployment and increasing food prices than any sudden embrace of democracy.
yeah cynical i get that. prices have been rising for stuff that we "need", but not because of growth in (M), or to the degree of growth in (M). Personal consumption debt and the delveraging process has crimped production on the top line. In order for prices to rapidly rise, as you emphatically suggest, too much money has to chase too few goods. But, this is not the happening. Any price inflation we are experiencing (and by the way, I can construct a basket of shit where prices have tanked), is a result of firms cutting back supply because there is no demand). If you agree that gold is a currency hedge, it clearly has not responded to the growth in M because its not being employed. Nobody is borrowing, and nobody is buying, relatively speaking. The deleveraging process has kept a lid on price inflation and by extension, the price of gold. IMO, a breakout in the price of gold, will haqve more to do with a crisis in confidence than it will with accelerating prices as a result of too much money chasing too few goods. cheers.
Meanwhile, gold and silver plummeted simultaneously today, right on schedule, just like clockwork. Sooo predictable. You could set your watch by it. Yeah, yeah, I know, my stack's still shiny. Whoopee-doopee!
24k QE3
Anyone else wondering if we are just catching up to previous highs in the market? Or has Benji just stopped announcing QE's to prevent Gold from Spiking...
Bernanke is a deluded monetary paedophile. He thinks we're children and we want it.
All I know is that Bernanke, Geithner and all the acronyms known as QE, LTRO etc etc etc will one day be banished to the history books while gold will still win out with its golden silence.
The monetary fools running the show have been lucky to extend the game for this long but as they say, luck cannot protect you from stupidity forever.
In an imperfect world and imperfect financial system, gold is still the best no brainer bet you can make in terms of value and insurance over any extended time frame.
All bennie boy needs to do is salt every single checking account with several zeros and pay off VISA, Mastercard and the Govt Student Loans too.
Yea, a little bit of money for the kiddies.
Ah, time for the "Golen Pickle" or "Silver Shaft" to emerge and blow these patterns to the FRIGG'N MOON!!!
GSR = silver $50ish!
RATIO IS EXPRESSED LIKE 50:1 50, TO 1, 50/1
but yeah silver is still cheap, but then so is platinum. guess the industrial use is still predominant, like copper, nickel etc.
57.8
copper at $3.30+/lb. ain't cheap.
Gold is getting close to a breakout. There are no guarantees that gold will not go lower before this breakout occurs, but it seems like a good time to buy some gold and silver mining stocks. Check out this website (www.goldsilverdata.com) if you like mining stocks. The mining stocks have been hammered the past year, and there are a lot of opportunities.
I hold pretty much 100% physical Gold & Silver (with the larger portion in favor of Silver) and feel that I would like to take on more (Double Edit: SOME) risk. I know most will junk me but any thoughts on the following names would be great. EDIT: Looking to hold for 12 months.....
CEY
ABG
FRES
AQP
Thanks
People here will tell you paper gold is not really gold at all, and I would agree. That said, there are some nice double and triple long vehicles out there to spice up your moves.
DGP comes to mind
I am also considering putting some newly aquired paper into a oil vehicle. Problem there is contango kills you over time, but I am guessing a nice spike up in oil if 'Bama hits Iran
Take your mining stocks and shove it.
Disclosure, a bit of canadian paper that has been pennies for decades.
Commodity complex very strongly positioned to start the week. Wholesale US gasoline back above $3.00, Brent crude straining at $115, gold hanging back up at $1620...but in the short term so much has to do with the USD/Euro 'contest of idiots' and the direction of greater weakness in currencies.
But with no major geopolitical flare-ups, it still looks like a coiled spring....and you just know SOMETHING will flare up. Besides US and Euro politicians stupidity of course (that's a given and largely priced in).
speaking of flare-ups and coiled springs:>
The Soup Race <: documents the daily end of the ramadan fast as people who haven't had any food all day are in their cars trying to get home for the soup at exactly the right time, religiously, after not having had a cigarette all day too!
some pretty aggressive driving or what? Hahaha!
ROFLMAO.... no soup for you!
Play the futures, options, and ETF's at your own peril. The manipulation by central banks and the exchanges margin requirements make the barbarous metal a tricky way to make this trade profitable. Buy the physical and do not put it in any bank or trading firm's vault. It is no longer yours if and when you really need it.
or, as an intermediate between bullion and futures, options and gld etf, consider the miners. they are currently priced very cheaply to the bullion (and some pay dividends). talking my book.
http://blogs.stockcharts.com/chartwatchers/2011/10/gold-mining-stocks-ve...
Jeff, the (interesting, albeit bearish) article you link to was published nearly a year ago. Charts have changed since then, and GDXJ may as well have formed a double bottom (May low a tad under 18, July lows in the same range, and now heading for the 20-week moving average on the weekly chart, while the Slow Stochastic is already strongly overbought).
Barron's runs an article in the current issue dealing with management plunders at silver miners, and the dangers for us investors and speculators.
Seems nothing beats that feeling of holding one's goodies very much within reach, and far from any counterparty risk.
"Seems nothing beats that feeling of holding one's goodies very much within reach, and far from any counterparty risk."
Sometimes I like to take out a couple stacks of eagles just to look at them. Sure beats looking at a statement.
And even more so it beats looking at a MF Global or PFG statement of late.
Goled. Sounds soccerish.
Gooooooooooooooool -D
~~~
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CPzzGtEa6-U
David Cruise (hispanic), host of the large KFI640 radio station in LA, just commented that the Republicans just lost all hope of the hispanic vote because Ryan proposed work in the welfare program. Amazing... work should be optional.
Work should be optional as should eating.
Homo sapiens is naturally a hunter gatherer species.
I like the hunt for the gatherers !
"Ryan proposed work in the welfare program"
He couldn't have talked about the bank welfare program, which Obama so strongly supports...
Free money from Ryan for his buddies:
http://dailybail.com/home/busted-watch-tarp-republican-paul-ryan-begging...
work for the dole,. but then how would people keep their , real jobs?
The money printing continues, so the money unit price of PMs must trend up, eventually. Central banks can try to sequester, isolate, swap, and spin, but if any of the money they create enables anyone, under and circumstances to bid up the price of goods, services, wages, commodities, etc., then the result is clear.
I was just wondering, if 2012 is 2011, are we going to see another crazy jump in gold like a year ago?
Yes, we are going to see another crazy jump in gold, just like the year ago.
Now you can stop just wondering.
That means, buy it now, or never.
On the other hand copper chart looks set for low 2's. I'm still thinking there's one more flush lower in gold before it doubles off the lows.
Could well be, although I doubt it. There's too much general negativity across the entire metal market, and ample stealth buying coming in at dips in the precious complex, so the path of least resistance should be up.
With CoT large specs shorts near record numbers, HGU may be closer to 4 than to 3.
The BTFID (Iran Dip) Cup of Fornication is overflowing.
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/08/13/world/middleeast/time-to-call-diplomatic-effort-on-iran-a-failure-israeli-official-says.html?_r=2
http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5ispTrQqet7IxUy1HAxaW_aSPuYbQ?docId=CNG.55e571dee34e8241ffb29aed6968cb41.511
http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4266973,00.html
http://www.stuartwilde.com/2012/08/10888/
http://www.shtfplan.com/headline-news/warning-get-your-money-out-all-customer-deposits-in-the-united-states-are-now-the-legal-property-of-jp-morgan-goldman-sachs-megabanks_08122012
http://www.newswithviews.com/Horn/thomas178.htm <---woe
http://www.wnd.com/2012/08/670-million-muslims-expect-madhi-in-their-lifetime/ <--woe
http://www.astradome.com/secret_of_the_great_seal.htm
I don't need to see extreme moves in gold, silver. A few dollars here and there, a little higher, whatever. We here know why we own physical. It will play out close to script. Let it take its time. I would guess that most of you cannot even find 5 people in your circle of business or personal relationships that own physical. Not even 5. I know of 2! So we have a long way to go, just be patient.
But the end game is near.
Yes... Slow and methodical.
Since a while I sometimes calculate prices in gold if I want to know the approximate real value of something. Just for fun and very enlightening, however most people look at me real funny when I tell them.
Shit I've been recommending to clients that I've worked with for years to buy physical. I can count on one hand how many have taken some sort of action. Some of these people I have been working with for 20 + years. I always get the questions like... What am I going to do with it? Or a comment like ... The proccess is too hard.
Or..."Yeah, but how do I sell it?"
How does one normally sell money? People never ask that question, but strangely they ask about selling silver....
They can sell it to me !:O)
They ain't seen nothing yet. Hard is successfully suing your bank or government after that "easy access account" is revealed to be a two-way street. Converting fiat to metal is a pleasure, especially at these rates. Not everyone can have a castle. Now piss off or I shall taunt you a second time!
I work with a guy that has probably saved a couple million US dollars or more. He said he could not see himself buying gold.
He would too.
Just you don't know anything about it chump.
That's good. Less bodies to stack at the porch.
If the last gold bull market is any indication-gold seems to like these bearish triangles-
http://bit.ly/NDFKAp
Seems to me that there was something that may have caused some market turmoil in 1974. Hmmmm ... What could it be? Oh yeah Nixon resigned. Then in the 80s something else happened... Paul Volker started raising rates. If you think the Bernank is going to raise rates anytime soon you haven't been paying attention. And we certainly aren't going to have a change in government. Romney made sure of that with his latest pick. My guess is the Bernank will be firing up those presses soon.
Don't forget the oil crisis of 73/74 ...
Yeah the oil shock was bad, but Nixon's resignation created huge selling pressure in the markets. The worst thing that came out of the oil shock is the fact TPTB blamed it all on OPEC ,mainly the Iranians, in order to to divert from all the printing they were doing. The result is a generation of voting American's who hat Iran.
You know, I'd really hate it if we have to go against the Iranians, the Persians were and are a great people. What a shame they're so screwed over by religion. But then, we in the west had a lot to do with that. On the other hand, if they really want to fire nuclear missiles at Israel, Israel simply has no choice but to attack them, they must know this, they're not stupid. Maybe Iran's nuclear weapons are very much like Saddam's wmd's?
I really find it hard to believe that they are worried about Iran securing a nuclear weapon and attacking Isreal with it. After all Isreal has a nuclear arsenal powerful enough to wipe Iran off the map. More than likely TPTB are more concerned about securing Iran's oil and gold.
That's pretty much what I figure. They get the oil, they get the gold, plus they eliminate one of the last remaining "pockets of resistance." Like what's going on in Syria as well. US/NATO is supporting Al Quaida? WTF is that? It's almost like 9/11 got everybody so shit scared we're handing over the middle east to the the Saudi jihadists, hoping to appease them.
the Iranians, the Persians were and are a great people. What a shame they're so screwed over by religion.
link?
If you must, start with this ...
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Persian_people
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ruhollah_Khomeini
Oh, and don't forget these two gentlemen ...
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mohammad_Reza_Pahlavi
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mohammad_Mosaddegh
And a very interesting Persian
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Omar_Khayy%C3%A1m
All I'm trying to say is, the Persians are not barbarians like the Arabs or the North Africans ...
have shovel
will travel?
L0L!!!
India, Pakistan, Iran, Russia, Israel, China, NATO, France, England all have WMD ! Sadaam wouldn't have any or aspire to any .... that would be so out of character ! Sadaam had them and they are now in Syria ! Do you always parrot MSM template ?
Odd even days.
Yea I remember those days. My father had a shit datsun that could go to work two weeks on 6 dollars gas while the big american barges docked at the gas station for a day hoping to get enough to get back home again.
I remember when Deseil hit 2.00 The crying and groaning and threats too. Now it's like a cool 5.00 at times and no one cares... oh and get that DEF too to keep compliant emissions.
I think to see gas at 12 dollars and Deseil at 15 when walmart says eff this and goes right out of business....
THAT would be a day to remember.
A US treasury bubble burst from Nixon taking us off the remainders of a gold standard to finance the Vietnam war with fiat money. I was there in 1972-74 with the high interest rates and inflation and long gas lines to get a half tank in my 68 Olds 442. The US deficit was probably around 20% back then. Now it's too late, we're way past the point of no return. QE to infinity until this paper money ponzi scheme collapses.
You could look into fundamentals instead of sorting tea leaves.
You could look into fundamentals instead of sorting tea leaves.
****************
I believe if you knew how to interpret historical charts/"facts" you would not reply with such an asshole comment-
Father Gold, the great rebuker of fiat currencies and lesser metals for 6000 years, now raises his head again to paddle CBs. He will free himself from manipulations of CBs and LGP and soar to 5000 as physical market explodes over paper market frolics. It will be sudden and fast, I guess within 2 years, but could arrive sooner like a the if in the night.
if Au does indeed "soar to 5000" any wise person will be loathe to part with it for that or any amount of filthy debt coupons. what then?
Barter, my friend. Buy yer gold in small denoms. No 400 oz bars.
if i could afford to buy gold in 400oz bars, i wouldn't be on zerohedge everyday trying to work out what the fuck is going on. I would be on an island trying to work my fuck on.
oh great, now you tell me.
the if in the night*. . .
the if in the night* is indeed a sneak . . .
between-the-sheets, fairiedusted, those asleep are lucky to awake with even their teeth nevermind any gold in'em
*by morning to perhaps arise d r e a m i n g only to find everything stolen
including house, home, bed, blankets right down to the molars, enamel, bones and very skin-of-your-teeth
without a sound
. . . if ever really awake even kicking and screaming
Looks like Silver is getting the Knight HFT treatment.
WTF is up with this chart?
Long John, I think the low volume in both silver and gold can move us around quite a bit yet have no real bearing on price point for more than a few nano seconds.
15 cent swings don't matter.
Now when you are awake and sharp enough to catch that 6 dollar swing and have something to trade on right then,....
Blythe, chewing gum, wooden desks.
New Euro high in gold this week. Less than 2% to go.
Gold, though expensive, is still vastly underpriced.
My fear is that the bull may start to advance rather suddenly, and leave alot of people unable or unwilling to climb on board.
But, then again, life is not just. For those with fiat to spend, continue buying.
Sound money strikes again.
When the CEO of Northwestern Mutual Insurance Company (an ultraconservative company from what I read) was asked why NWML bought $400 million gold he answered, "Because gold never goes to zero."
EBOR ! The Ebola Break Out Rally ! Some die so others can live ! Monedas 1929 Comedy Jihad Sisterhood Gold Bitchez
stealing from a ZH comment months ago: gold is not a put on political stupidity, its a call. and its going to be in the money very shortly. boiling the frog via inflation is a much easier path to take for a politico than going cold turkey on the free unicorns and skittles. the price of gold won't be suppressed for that much longer or there'll be a risk of massive demand exposing the unencumbered physical shortfall. better for TPTB to let it rise 300 or so now than to wake up to a failure to deliver one morning and see it at 5000 immediately.
If there's an FTD, you can bet that TPTB will change the rules (so they won't need to cover at 5,000) and we won't be happy with the new rules.
If there's one lesson to be learned from the last 20 years, it's The Rules can change any time and The Little People will not be the beneficiaries of the new rules.
that first pattern has been widely noted
gold and silver just haven't seemed themselves lately
it is s'posed to break outa this wedge but there seems to be some lingering resistance upside and down
imagine that!
people trading gold on technical patterns & touts probably don't need it anyhow... just part of Citi's "global rehypothecation fuking strategies" are we now? L0L!!!
what i really got a kick outa here tho is how tyler who has prob published the letters QE with as much leverage as anyone i have followed for the last year or so doesn't appear to "notice":> 1. a 'slowing' or contracting global central bank balance sheet... <:
are you shitting moi? since mar/april '12? stay tooned... thanks for the porno and party on, tyler!
We need the Ebola breakout to spread to the African gold mines .... no production for a while ? Monedas 1929 Comedy Jihad Headlines: Mine shaft elevator cage free falls one kilometer when cable unravels ! 100 Ebola infected miners were killed instantly ! Hazmat teams won't go near the mess at the bottom of the shaft ! Gold price soars !
fuk you you sick little twerp
Hush yo mouf .... I'n jes talkin' bout SHAFT ?
bad mofo that shaft
but i still don't want to hear it, m0_
you take it easy, ok
Does this mean I won't be getting a green arrow ?
+4
night-night?
monedas... first in line to sign up for the Hitler Youth...
If Hitler was around he'd sure heckfire send some volunteers to Uganda .... to monitor the spread of the disease !
That mess?
A few haul trucks of dirt will take care of that.
CNBC is scaring me. They are writing at the 4th grade level and using NSA propaganda techniques. The world must be coming to the end.
Arrest them.
Well, it's true. An insane amount of people are suddenly running marathons. Started a couple of years back. I now know several, whereas before nobody I knew ran marathons for fun.
Wow! For "just the cost of a pair of sneakers".
And the spokesman for Adidas thinks its a good idea, too?
What's not to love (about this infomercial)...?
". . . . and so it went for generations although few, if any, seemed to notice."
http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=4da_1258457760
Running: because you're too fucking broke to do anything else with all the time you used to spend at a job.
I am all in silver already
In good time, gold will go Up Up and Away. We just need to hold on.
https://miningstockvaluator.com/
Gold to 1640'ish this week. And then; well, one step at a time...
PS
I reserve the right to be wrong. But I still keep stacking. Why, oh why, do I torture myself thus...
Edit: Forgot the /sarc tag.
US Dollar index (60% weighted against Euro) will have much to say about direction of commodities in general. US Dollar rises, commodities, including gold, likely to fall.
US Dollar falls, Euro rises - and Europe is doing so well these days.
http://bullandbearmash.com/chart/usd-index-daily-august-03-2012/
Don't worry Mr. Tyler Durden, no one who regularly reads ZH would be surprised at a title and/or article by you that pimps gold. Tyler Durden not pimping gold is like a whore in comfortable shoes and long skirt. It would cause more than a double take were such an event to occur.
Your gold pimping has become like a Romney verbal gaff now. No longer annoying, it just lets us verify it's the real Tyler Durden.
Follow the yellow brick road...
MSM pimps stocks and bonds .... Tyler is just balance ! MSM invents gaffs and amplifys them .... Obamas gaffs are real and under reported ! Ted Kennedy was researching martian landers for NASA at Chappaquidick !
These clowns trash the best-performing asset since 2007? Clipping U.S. stocks for pennies glued to CNBC Fast Money while watching the Wall St. thieves ripping off client funds with zero penalty...
Gold and Corn are the best-performing assets of the past five years. But wait! Wall Street does not consider them an "ASSet class". They would rather have you own Faceberg at $38.
Fucking joke.
Even during the July heat ther were traders waving around the acreage report and predicting another record harvest. Couldn't even go outside and find out about the heat.
Hubris !
only a matter of time before its legislated out of existence
Breaking News !
Gold has been added to the list of Schedule one drugs.
White house officials says Obama's move by Executive Order was a issue of fundamental fairness as the poor do not have equal access to gold bullion coins.
BATF, DEA, DHS, and DOJ have formed a joint taskforce and the DOD will provide "Drone Services".
Have a nice day.