On Gold's Recent Resilience

Tyler Durden's picture

Some might be surprised by the title's positivity, but while the barbarous relic has meandered in an ever-compressing (triangle pattern) series of waves in the last few months, it has rather notably outperformed relative to global risk aversion, CFTC positioning, and central bank balance sheet dynamics - especially in the last few weeks. Whether the yellow metal's zero-yield is now 'technically' attractive to safe-haven flows relative to the NIRPs of Germany and Switzerland - or in fundamental anticipation of the next bout of central bank largesse, Citi's global macro strategy group remain bullish of the precious metal and the charts below suggest they are not alone.

$1650 seems like the key 'technical' line in the sand for another leg up as the small (and large) triangles come into play...

 

but Gold's resilience in the face of...

1. a 'slowing' or contracting global central bank balance sheet...

 

2. volatility in Citi's risk-aversion index (GRAMI)...

 

3. and a notable 'apparent' derisking based on CFTC Futures & Options Net Positioning...

 

It seems there is either a degree of buying in precious metals that is anticipating an increase in risk-aversion OR it is anticipating central bank largesse. What is critically clear is that gold's gyrations and uncertainty relative all of these three indicators since the end of LTRO2 has fallen suggesting its diversification and 'hedge-ability' for both risk-on (liquidity-driven exuberance) and risk-off (safe-haven sourcing in a NIRP world) is increasingly appealing.

 

One thing is sure - the view that precious metals are a put on political stupidity remains front-and-center - as fundamentals take a back-seat to the monetary addiction of the world's advanced economies (and perhaps tonight's negative nominal GDP print for Japan - leaving the nation in deflation 50% of the quarters of the last 5 years - is priming for more print-and-be-damned excess - though China's reverse-repo test should be a concern for all those 'hoping' for stimulus extravaganza)

 

Charts: Citi