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Goodbye $1700 Gold

Tyler Durden's picture


In lieu of the period of unbridled peace and prosperity that was supposed to be ushered once the European summit ended, we have more chaos, more uncertainty, and record blow ups in all Euro-sovereign paper. Which means only one thing: the long-awaited moment of coordinated and endless central planner printing is getting ever closer. And once again, gold has figured this out albeit with a slight delay, having left the $1700 handle behind. Once the general public notices the most recent break out in the yellow metal expect yet another manic phase higher, coupled with the now traditional margin hike buffoonery (or wait, maybe this time the CME will lower margins to, gasp, make sure there is no liquidity stress).


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Tue, 11/08/2011 - 13:44 | 1857019 Fips_OnTheSpot
Fips_OnTheSpot's picture

Margin hike, bitchez!

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 13:45 | 1857027 Cash_is_Trash
Cash_is_Trash's picture

I for one, welcome margin hikes.

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 13:47 | 1857043 BaBaBouy
BaBaBouy's picture

Adios 1000's, Bienvenuto 2000's ...

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 13:51 | 1857064 redpill
redpill's picture

I can hear Bernank starting to blubber..."Traddiitttionn *sniifff* traddiitttionnn *bawling* it's only traaadditttioonnn.  Timmay get me a tissue"

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 13:56 | 1857094 fuu
fuu's picture

"Sorry boss I used it all stuffing Greek bank deposits last month!" Timmah yelled from the gimp closet.

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 16:25 | 1858008 WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

That didn't last long. I suspect the next time we say goodbye to $1700 we'll be saying hello $1600.

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 16:30 | 1858038 trav7777
trav7777's picture

yeah, right on cue, welcome back $1700s

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 18:24 | 1858530 phyuckyiu
phyuckyiu's picture

The smackdown is retracing as we speak, but if you were trolling for neg votes, then.... success!!

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 17:16 | 2209763 zerotohero
zerotohero's picture

It's a dance - 3 steps forwards 1 step back - 2 steps forward 1 step back repeat.

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 17:29 | 2209827 akak
akak's picture

But being a proud member of Stormfront, Trav of course does not have even a smidgen of rhythm, and therefore cannot dance.

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 13:54 | 1857086 Troll Magnet
Troll Magnet's picture

that was a pretty damn good sales event.  gold at $1,600, silver at $30...ahh...those were the days.

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 14:29 | 1857327 eaglefalcon
eaglefalcon's picture

didn't get the real deal!  When silver went down to $26.60 APMEX shut itself down for maintanence.

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 15:57 | 1857861 Troll Magnet
Troll Magnet's picture

if there are no coin dealers in your area, go with,, or ANYONE OTHER THAN AP-fucking-MEX!  APMEX is a RIP OFF!  shop around.  there are much better deals than APMEX all around you.

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 17:53 | 1858413 traderjoe
traderjoe's picture

I would typically agree, but occasionally, Apmex has deals that bring their prices in line with others, like recently with fractional maples. And at times, they are competitive on items like Palladium.

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 17:54 | 1858423 Salamanda
Salamanda's picture

Yeah you're right Troll... I've been buying physical Au/Ag for a few years now and I've yet to find a dealer, and supply to buyers outside the USA, who are cheaper and more tightly margined than Gainsville. I've yet to find one and would be keen to hear if there's any out there who are worth chwcking out.


Tue, 11/08/2011 - 18:36 | 1858564 DosZap
DosZap's picture


Par for their course,higher prems than almost anyone, and their bank is JPM.

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 22:09 | 1859256 Papasmurf
Papasmurf's picture

Blue light special was last month.

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 14:03 | 1857128 EL INDIO
EL INDIO's picture

Me too.

Gold is above most/all the moving averages and by a good percentage.

You can check the MAs here:

I don’t think it’ll keep doing this for long.

Don’t buy now, wait for a dip to at least the 30 SMA.

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 14:41 | 1857397 toothpicker
toothpicker's picture

Noone. I repeat: NOONE should wait a second to buy physical. Ignore tech charts and think FUNDAMENTALS. Applying tech charts to Gold is like estimating the size of the lifeboats of Titanic (instead of jumping into them)

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 15:00 | 1857549 EL INDIO
EL INDIO's picture

How about this for a FUNDAMENTAL:

When dumb buyers have wasted their money on a spike, savvy buyers buy the dip that come after.

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 15:37 | 1857754 Gief Gold Plox
Gief Gold Plox's picture

I am in no way ashamed to admit that I have myself learned that lesson not too long ago. Waiting patiently.

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 16:13 | 1857947 Troll Magnet
Troll Magnet's picture

must've been a sales guy from APMEX.  

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 16:14 | 1857958 Freddie
Freddie's picture

Physical gold?  That old relic?  Give me more of that good time fiat paper along with NFLX, CMG, TZOO and shares of Grope-on.


Wed, 11/09/2011 - 01:30 | 1859704 FlyPaper
FlyPaper's picture

I suspect Toof' Picker's point is that you may not be able to find physical gold easily.   At some point gold's 'status quo' is very likely to shift at some point, and global demand simply will continue to move the price higher; and with a limited amount of the metal that's a pretty good assumption once people catch on that it may be the only sought-after money left.  

Would not be at all surprised if the spikes don't do the same thing Silver did last April.  Hedgies are looking for a quick boost and have started to take positions; could well squeeze the shorts; the price will shoot up, everyone will bail, and 'plop' the price back to the $1600-ish level where other buyers become interested.

Or when we have the inevitable market crash that is coming, contracts will be dumped and PMs may make their final big dip down - which may be the buying opportunity of a lifetime.

Frankly a pattern of nice rise and consolidation is much more to my liking than spikes and smack-downs, as the latter scares people out of the market.  



Tue, 11/08/2011 - 13:46 | 1857034 Thomas
Thomas's picture

Exactly.  Hike this you punks.

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 13:47 | 1857044 Manthong
Manthong's picture

My first thought too.

No money down any more..

Cash and carry.

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 14:09 | 1857169 CPL
CPL's picture

Creates the right type of buyer, one that is making the mental decision that all FAIT is crap in hand with the determination to force the hand of the crooks attempting to cover up their mistakes.

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 15:42 | 1857780 Smiddywesson
Smiddywesson's picture

It is a waste of time to argue this again.  You are both right because you are all comparing apples and oranges.  Stacking physical has nothing to do with trading paper.

At this late stage in the train wreck, you should have a physical position, there's no arguing that fact.  The real question is how big a position. 

If you are trading paper gold, and I won't say you should not, you must accept that you can lose everything in the market with no warning and no hope of you exiting your position. 

If your physical position is too small to accept these potential loses in paper, then you need to shift some money over and do some stacking.  I am not against trading paper, but stops and other types of paper hedges won't work against a global seize up in markets, and that seize up can come anytime.

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 13:51 | 1857063 The Big Ching-aso
The Big Ching-aso's picture

'I'm Sold On Gold.'

'I'm Aquiver With Silver.'

Ok, that's about all the PM Big Ching-aso-ism's for today.

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 13:59 | 1857111 Long-John-Silver
Long-John-Silver's picture

Do the next series of margin hikes take it to 100%? What do they do after it's 100%?

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 14:20 | 1857254 tarsubil
tarsubil's picture

110%? Why not?

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 15:45 | 1857798 Smiddywesson
Smiddywesson's picture

My guitar goes to 11, so let's push margin up to 111%

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 16:04 | 1857905 Troll Magnet
Troll Magnet's picture

how about 9-9-9%?  stupid sheeple seem to love that shit.

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 16:32 | 1858042 trav7777
trav7777's picture

nah he's black like on TV, so he's a good vehicle to expunge that YT guilt

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 14:01 | 1857122 DosZap
DosZap's picture

The CME hiked the rates 26% after market close Friday,by rights WE should be seeing lower prices,appears thistime, NO DICE.

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 13:44 | 1857020 Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture


Tue, 11/08/2011 - 13:46 | 1857031 Cash_is_Trash
Cash_is_Trash's picture

Silver busting 35.30

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 14:42 | 1857398 JPM Hater001
JPM Hater001's picture

Call me when we are back at 50.

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 15:22 | 1857651 SilverRhino
SilverRhino's picture

It will get there.  

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 15:28 | 1857682 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Probably not on the COMEX.

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 16:28 | 1858021 WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

Probably not before it sees $20 again.

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 18:18 | 1858509 phyuckyiu
phyuckyiu's picture

We've been listening to you fools for years now, they were able to keep the balloon underwater at 30$ for one night before it popped back up. It's ok though, you all change your names so we can't use your previous hack job predictions against you. You've only been making these calls for a few months so you have a few more to go before your credibility is gone and you have to change your name. Only Trav has the ballz to endure his mis calls, and it just makes him use that many more swear words in his posts.

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 18:43 | 1858581 WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

Ah, okay. Sorry if my forecast differs from yours. I'm not emotionally involved with PMs, so I don't get pissed off when someone disagrees with my forecast. But, according to the PM bugs, we should be at gold $2500 and silver $100 by now. All I try do say is that gold and silver move up and down, period. I see a deflationary environment ahead where all asset classes depreciate. No one can predict the future, all we can do is seek out information, analyze it, and form conclusions to use for our strategy.

Don't get your panties in a wad just because we disagree on the path that metals will take. It ain't personal. I think eventually gold and silver will skyrocket, relative to other assets. I just don't think the time is now.

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 20:21 | 1858857 akak
akak's picture

If you think you see a deflationary environment ahead, then you, like Denninger and Bernanke, have your head up your ass.

The only thing I see deflating in today's environment (of a collapsing fiat monetary system) is the credibility of those who keep vainly and ignorantly calling for monetary or price deflation.

Repeat after me: THERE IS NO SUCH THING AS DEFLATION UNDER A FIAT CURRENCY REGIME.  There never has been, and all rational expectations, and examination of monetary history, points to there never being any in the future as well.  Show me one example of a true deflation under a fiat currency regime (and no, Japan was NOT one), and I will shut up.  Until then, it is you who should shut up and stop babbling about "threats" that have never been seen in the real (non-academic) world, and overwhelmingly likely never will.

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 20:44 | 1858982 tmosley
tmosley's picture

But paper is different from physical.  There is absolutely no reason that paper gold and silver wouldn't go straight to zero on a COMEX or CME collapse (MF Global style, even).  But physical will benefit from the readjustment, so much so that those holding silver will move up two classes in society, whether from lower class to wealth, from middle class to ultra wealthy, or from upper class to oligarch.  Assuming proportional investment, of course.

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 21:15 | 1859004 akak
akak's picture

Well, tm, I think that is a given.  Although I would not call it a sign of "deflation" so much as the unraveling of a giant and unsustainable fraud, just another collapse of a criminal Ponzi scheme.

Honestly, I wish these historically ignorant deflationary flat-earthers would finally just shut the fuck up already about the nonexistent "threat of deflation" --- it is intellectually insulting and demeaning to even have to address their fantasies, lies and disinformation.


PS: Dear WonderDawg, the owners and advocates of gold are probably not so much "emotionally attached" to holding gold as they are, oddly, emotionally attached to the idea of NOT being financially raped blind by a criminal and unsustainable Ponzi-esque, and collapsing, monetary system which was set up in the interests of central bankers and the financial elite and directly against the interests of the common man.

Funny how you kneejerk gold naysayers continually mock and disparage the rational self-interest of those in the gold camp as merely blind emotion and/or greed, a la Jon Nadler.

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 21:30 | 1859105 WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

You can call me names all you want, akak, it only proves my point about being emotional. Time will tell who is right. Mathematics is what I'm using for my forecast, along with some common sense. You think that TPTB will choose to print their way out of this mess. I say they won't, and can't even if they wanted to. Again, you don't have a crystal ball, and neither do I. I do have a position in physical PMs, and plan to add to it when I think we're near the bottom. The fact that I disagree with you on this matter is no cause to get bent out of shape, yet you continue to do so, which tells me that, yes, you are emotionally attached to your PMs. Bully for you. I'm not.

The Fed has one product. FRNs. They will ultimately choose not to destroy it until they have a sufficient replacement, which they do not have at this time. Until that time, I expect fluctuations, but ultimately a depreciation prior to a shot to the moon. You disagree. Big deal. I'm not going to lose any sleep over it. And I really don't care what you're tired of hearing about. Plenty of people are probably tired of your incessant calls for PMs to the moon. I'm one of them. But, I respect your right to voice your opinion. If I disagree, I'll say so without really giving a shit what you don't want to hear.

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 23:04 | 1859358 akak
akak's picture


You can call me names all you want, akak, it only proves my point about being emotional.
Those who spread misinformation and disinformation, especially when it comes to fundamental financial and monetary matters, deserve to be called out on it.  And those who would maliciously steer the innocent or the ignorant away from the the financial lifeboat of the monetary metals or other hard assets, and directly into fiat-denominated Ponzi assets and the crushing grip of the financial elite with the putative and nonsensical "threat of deflation", are mostly nothing more than traitors to the truth and to the best interests of the common man.  I will never refrain from condemning them for spreading their malevolent and destructive lies.
Time will tell who is right. Mathematics is what I'm using for my forecast, along with some common sense.
But not, apparently, even the slightest smidgen of historical analysis or perspective.  Time will tell, indeed, but history has already shown what governments in the unsustainably indebted positions that all Western nations are currently in have invariably done and will invariably do: depreciate the currency.  Sure, they may not print physical paper and flood the economy with it as in Weimar Germany --- in fact, I strongly suspect they will not repeat that particular experiment --- but they WILL depreciate the currency as a means of reducing their debts, one way or another.  ALL of financial and monetary history, going back thousands of years in hundreds of societies, demonstrates and proves this conclusively.  Yet you want us to believe, in the face of a mountain of evidence to the contrary, that "this time is different".  Why?
The Fed has one product. FRNs. They will ultimately choose not to destroy it until they have a sufficient replacement.
Oh really?  Based on what evidence?  What historical parallel?  And unlike the dozens of other similarly and hopelessly indebted national governments just within the last few decades who did in fact chose to destroy (or greatly depreciate) their fiat currencies in the face of crushing debts?  Once again with the "this time it's different" meme.  Or is it the "It can't happen to us!" meme?  Either, and both, suffer from the same blinkered historical ignorance.

Plenty of people are probably tired of your incessant calls for PMs to the moon

I have NEVER made any such calls, and in fact have mocked them myself --- primarily because such people tend to suffer from fiat tunnel vision, and foolishly continue to measure the value of all things against depreciating fiat currencies.  I care not a whit what the price of gold is --- what really matters is its value, which is a very different concept than some nominal dollar figure.  Gold at $10,000 an ounce will be no cause for celebration if the price of a gallon of milk reaches $30 at the same time.

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 16:33 | 1858049 trav7777
trav7777's picture

so $60 is out for next week?

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 16:46 | 1858117 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Repeat that lie a few more times.  Maybe your idol, Hitler, was right, and one day it will come true.

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 13:45 | 1857024 rajat_bhatia
rajat_bhatia's picture

I'll bet bernanke is reading this and he'll do anything to prove you wrong!!!

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 13:46 | 1857037 HelluvaEngineer
HelluvaEngineer's picture

Exactly.  They're rushing to their battle stations right now.  $80 smack-down imminent.

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 14:09 | 1857167 TeamDepends
TeamDepends's picture

But do they have the ammo to do it?  Or are they shooting blanks?

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 14:15 | 1857216 aldousd
aldousd's picture

the bernank may (possibly, remotely so,) have read the article, but he is not reading our comments. :P  I'll bet he saw the headline though, at least on an RSS feed.

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 15:47 | 1857813 Smiddywesson
Smiddywesson's picture

I'll bet bernanke is reading this and he'll do anything to prove you wrong!!!

I doubt Uncle Ben reads ZH, but if he does, he's got to be Robotrader.

I would bet someone a gold eagle that he's heard of ZH, and another that someone on his staff reads it for him.

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 13:46 | 1857030 gorillaonyourback
gorillaonyourback's picture

as gold goes higher, going to be harder to raise margins and have an effect.  thats a good thing.  maybe more paper holders will want physical too.

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 13:46 | 1857033 GDog
GDog's picture

They are coming to take my gold?

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 13:48 | 1857046 SilverIsKing
SilverIsKing's picture

Gold spent about 1 1/2 months below $1,800 which was a great opportunity to load up before the next move higher...which is now upon us.

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 13:48 | 1857049 Sqworl
Sqworl's picture


Tue, 11/08/2011 - 13:48 | 1857050 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

I still hold firm to my belief (that gold has seen its top for the year) until I change my mind.

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 13:52 | 1857077 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

Fuck it.

I hereby capitulate.

Buying today.

Look out below.

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 13:56 | 1857096 CharlieSDT
CharlieSDT's picture

That didn't take long!


Tue, 11/08/2011 - 13:57 | 1857100 fuu
fuu's picture

It has been a long strange trip between you and gold.

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 18:29 | 1858542 phyuckyiu
phyuckyiu's picture

Dont you push me baby,
'Cause I'm all alone
And you know I'm only in it for the gold.

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 14:48 | 1857443 Sophist Economicus
Sophist Economicus's picture

You're smarter than the folks at Elliotwave!


Bobby, how's that short working for ya?

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 15:50 | 1857822 Smiddywesson
Smiddywesson's picture

Green for Topcallingtroll, he may or may not be right, but he's definitely whipsaw proof (and this is a whipsaw market).

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 13:48 | 1857052 AmazingLarry
AmazingLarry's picture

Now this is how I like my gold. IE higher in $US's. It's tradition.

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 13:49 | 1857056 fuu
fuu's picture

Silver bitchez!

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 17:47 | 1858390 s2man
s2man's picture

Silver coin-of-the-realm, BitcheZ!

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 13:50 | 1857058 vegas
vegas's picture

Did anybody ever wonder if the buffoons are long gold? What better way to profit from their own actions than be long "real" money?

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 13:51 | 1857072 alien-IQ
alien-IQ's picture

Isn't this about the time that Robo should be chiming in with his endless pontifications on how so and so is taking a beating on gold and how they should have bought MS or PCLN or...whatever?

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 20:18 | 1858901 akak
akak's picture

I wouldn't even dignify the flyby, snarky, shallow, gratuitous, post-and-run drivel of RoboTarder as "pontifications".  In order to pontificate, one first has to have a modicum of both intelligence and relevance, both of which are characteristics that MomoLemming has yet to demonstrate here.

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 13:51 | 1857073 dereksatkinson
dereksatkinson's picture

Commercial longs and short covering combined with unprecidented physical demand is what's pushing gold higher.  Not spec longs

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 14:10 | 1857177 bernorange
bernorange's picture

I may or may not (depending upon who's asking) be contributing to that unprecidented physical demand.

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 13:52 | 1857074 Bazinga
Bazinga's picture

Can the HUI be on its way to taking out its yearly high? Go baby, go, puhlease!

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 13:53 | 1857082 The Proletariat
The Proletariat's picture

The desire of gold is not for gold. It is for the means of freedom and benefit. ~ Emerson

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 13:53 | 1857083 occupant
occupant's picture


A important issue for selling precious metals.  


I live in Texas and the other day I was selling some steerling silver spoons.  Much to my surprise they would not buy 17oz of steerling silver without taking my drivers license and including myname/address/drivers license on the bill of sale.  I asked if this was because they were spoons and not coins or bars.  They said it was for all PM's.  This was not a pawn shop,  it was a dealer.

The dealers I use have never asked for any information when selling me precious metals.  Just because I am paranoid does not mean they are not out to get me.  So the question becomes how to unload this with out being identified.


In collier county Florida they were running stings off of Craigs list for handy man.  When you 

showed up they would ask you if you would do electrical work and then bust you for not having a liscense.  So adds in the paper and on the internet could be traps.


The point here is that the government will continue to make new rules and laws to help themselves to part of your money.  So I am asking the Zero hedge community what the consensus is on selling.  Just price in future taxes along with the vig when you sell or what.

See attached about louisana, although it addresses junk just change the verbage to precious metals.

Things like this get passed because how many people deal in junk so this does not apply to me.

Now what if it now is precious metals and most people say this does not apply to me.


This summer, the State Legislature and Governor of Louisiana passed a law that bans individuals

and businesses from transacting in cash if they are considered a "secondhand dealer". House Bill

195 of the 2011 Regular Session (Act 389) broadly defines a secondhand dealer to include

"...  Anyone, other than a non-profit entity, who buys, sells, trades in or otherwise acquires or disposes

of junk or used or secondhand property more frequently than once per month from any other person, 

other than a non-profit entity, shall be deemed as being in the business of a secondhand  dealer.

" The law then states that "A secondhand dealer shall not enter into any cash transactions  in payment

for the purchase of junk or used or secondhand property. Payment shall be made in the form of check, 

electronic transfers, or money order issued to the seller of the junk or used or  secondhand property...

" The broad scope of this definition can essentially encompass everyone;  from your local flea market

vendors and buyers to a housewife purchasing goods on ebay or  craigslist, to a group of guys trading

baseball cards, they could all be considered secondhand  dealers. Lawmakers in Louisiana have

effectively banned its citizens from freely using United States legal tender. 


The law goes further to require secondhand dealers to turn over a valuable business asset,  namely, 

their business' proprietary client information. For every transaction a secondhand dealer must obtain

the seller's personal information such as their name, address, driver's license number  and the license

plate number of the vehicle in which the goods were delivered. They must also  make a detailed

description of the item(s) purchased and submit this with the personal  identification information of every

transaction to the local policing authorities through electronic  daily reports. If a seller cannot or refuses

to produce to the secondhand dealer any of the required  forms of identification, the secondhand dealer

s prohibited from completing the transaction. 


This legislation amounts to a public taking of private property without compensation. Regardless of 

whether or not the transaction information is connected with, or law enforcement is investigating a crime,

individuals and businesses are forced to report routine business activity to the police. 


Tue, 11/08/2011 - 14:00 | 1857116 tsx500
tsx500's picture

i've got a solution to this problem.......   it's called  RON PAUL 2012 !

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 14:14 | 1857132 oddjob
oddjob's picture

Sell  your PM's to drug gangs for cash at 2x spot and everybody is happy.

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 14:08 | 1857158 Tortfeasor
Tortfeasor's picture

My city is trying to pass an ordinance tomorrow along the same lines, but dealing with precious metals trade.  Description of what was sold, name address phone number license etc.  

Article 1 Sec X of the Constitution gives Congress (and only Congress) the right to regulate the currency.  Impossible for any other body to have jurisdiction to regulate currency, including forbidding its use in commercial transactions.  

But the prolifigation of these rules is making me wonder is this is some sort of coordinated attack on a second-hand economy?  Awful lot of smoke around this. 

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 14:08 | 1857159 Abitdodgie
Abitdodgie's picture

Paying taxes are volentery , you need to sort your shit out.

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 14:19 | 1857250 The Swedish Chef
The Swedish Chef's picture

So is speling correctly but it looks like you already knew that...

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 15:58 | 1857874 gtb
gtb's picture

Glass house?

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 19:50 | 1858832 The Swedish Chef
The Swedish Chef's picture

Ahhhh... My lightning speed typing sometimes causes me to miss a letter or two... Well, my excuse could´ve been that English is not my native tongue, actually it isn´t even my second language, but a language I learnt in the fourth grade. What do assume he will blame it on? Dyslexia? Lazyness in school? Not giving a shit?

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 14:09 | 1857166 The Swedish Chef
The Swedish Chef's picture

When I sell it´s to buy real estate (read: farmland) so there will be so much friggin paperwork anyway.

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 16:08 | 1857929 cat2
cat2's picture

So since silver/gold eagles are legal for tender, you could buy the real estate directly with the PMs.   Agree on "20 $50 Gold Eagles and 25 $1 Silver Eagles" for example.  For reporting purposes your transaction price would be $1025 for the farm.

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 18:43 | 1858583 DosZap
DosZap's picture


For reporting purposes your transaction price would be $1025 for the farm.


In your dreams, the IRS would throw you into a cell,until you paid Market Value.

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 14:15 | 1857218 CPL
CPL's picture

There are a half dozen shadowbanks that you can use to conduct the transaction.  However might i offer something a little simpler.


Wait to sell, unless you really need to sell for cash.


Otherwise sell them in another state.

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 14:27 | 1857314 CharlieSDT
CharlieSDT's picture

The answer would be to get your PMs to a safer country and then sell them there when SHTF.  I don't trust our government, that's for sure.

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 14:54 | 1857500 Grinder74
Grinder74's picture

Has anyone filed a lawsuit citing federal pre-emption?  States can't declare legal tender federal reserve notes invalid.  What was Jindal thinking??

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 15:02 | 1857559 Grinder74
Grinder74's picture

Has anyone filed a lawsuit citing federal pre-emption?  States can't declare legal tender federal reserve notes invalid.  What was Jindal thinking??

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 15:31 | 1857703 tmosley
tmosley's picture

I live in Texas, and have sold silver many times.  No documentation required from my dealer.

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 16:36 | 1858061 trav7777
trav7777's picture

do you actually think anyone is going to comply with this law?  The law is getting to the point where people are openly saying fuck it.

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 13:53 | 1857084 junkyardjack
junkyardjack's picture

At least until next month

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 13:58 | 1857104 truont
truont's picture

"maybe this time the CME will lower margins".

CME just called their boss, JPMorgan.  Dimon said no go.  Sorry, Tyler.  Gold margins go up.

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 14:00 | 1857110 GriP
GriP's picture

run, forrest, run


Next stop $2000


Tue, 11/08/2011 - 14:00 | 1857114 Turd Ferguson
Turd Ferguson's picture

I would highly recommend reading this:

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 14:00 | 1857117 ivars
ivars's picture

The USA recession in Q1 2012 will come from cash hoarding. Already today, cash is hoarded by companies and banks, after last month spending spree and with winter coming, more safety cash cushion will be also required for private citizens. It may be that given the budget deficit, even the state (s) will feel some small urge to hoard a bit cash.

All this cash hoarding happens because of uncertainty which prevents investment and spending by companies and individuals, and budget deficit, which prevents spending by government.

In its simplest essence, let K be the TIME that money stock M on average sits out of circulation, so that 1/K=V ( velocity of money). The bigger the K, the bigger the cash hoarding.

So, the equation of exchange Equation of exchange

M*V=P*T [USD/time] becomes

M/K=P*T where P is price index over whole country and T is real price of units of goods/time produced , or over whole country, GDP.

Let us assume that FED is not going to increase monetary supply in 2011 more than cash hoarding time increases reduces money stock circulation (velocity) , so on the left side

M/K is reducing in magnitude due to cash hoarding despite money stock increases;

The right side must also then decrease. Cash hoarding by definition implies that inflation is either small, or non-existant. However, even small inflation would mean that the real value of output( GDP) has to contract to match the left side contraction by cash hoarding.

So, cash hoarding ( increase of average time money stock is out of productive circulation, e.g. at home, in bank account, in the FED etc. ) leads to recession of real output.

The BIGGER the inflation is, the BIGGER the reduction of GDP under cash hoarding circumstances. Of course, cash hoarding does not happen if inflation is very big, but a few percents are definitely OK, as we have seen from past year.

So even if the left side of the equation is constant (due to cash hoarding) , with small inflation GDP will fall by the same amount as inflation percentage. Inflation can be reduced by cash hoarding, but then debt deflation process starts, which is even worse. But cash hoarding can have a short term effect on inflation, so I will use quarterly data to calculate possible Q1 GDP contraction:

If I calculated correctly, the USA CPI for Q3 was 1,2% over Q2. If we assume similar situation in Q4 and the beginning of cash hoarding during Q4, either Q4 2011 or Q1 2012 will be recessionary over previous quarter by 1-2%. And it will continue until inflation is raised so much that cash hoarding makes no sense. It seems that Ron Paul's idea of defaulting on debt to FED will exactly shoot up inflation by the amount necessary to reduce cash hoarding (e.g. by government) and increase money velocity. Nothing else as big enough inflation will work. Big enough is achievable by a shot of right medicine .

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 15:34 | 1857717 jonan
jonan's picture


K = (t1/2USD) / [(us gold reserves * gold spot price)]^BS2


BS2 is your personal bullshit meter, but squared...

in essence, soon people will not hoard shit paper, just shit that keeps you alive and able to defend yourself...

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 14:07 | 1857154 youngman
youngman's picture

I still think we are only 3-5%......the other sheeple are still buying Treasuries...

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 14:13 | 1857197 silverbullion
silverbullion's picture

You're right, but I believe it is less than 1% that gets it.

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 14:10 | 1857174 integrale
integrale's picture

Parabola, bitchez!

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 14:10 | 1857176 bill1102inf
bill1102inf's picture

SAY HELLO TO 17XX Gold,  Again.

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 14:11 | 1857181 digalert
digalert's picture

If gold is a barbarous relic, why are people er uh governments always trying to steal it?

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 14:43 | 1857409 FeralSerf
FeralSerf's picture

Because they're barbaric barbarians?

"barbarous [?b??b?r?s]
1. uncivilized; primitive
2. brutal or cruel
3. lacking refinement
[via Latin from Greek barbaros barbarian, non-Greek, in origin imitative of incomprehensible speech; compare Sanskrit barbara stammering, non-Aryan]"

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 14:12 | 1857191 CPL
CPL's picture

So again I'll restate.

Fuck paper.

Fuck equities

Fuck TBills

Fuck bonds.


Oil, Silver and Gold, only other capital on the planet that is worth anything. 


The discount window is now officially closed.  Trade station still has no clue what to do because of the lack of information.  Plotting a course of the next three months my pos trade station is telling me $2800 by the middle of January.

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 14:25 | 1857294 Justawhoaman
Justawhoaman's picture

That would be oil and gas. Yes?

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 14:46 | 1857423 CPL
CPL's picture

When oil and gas are in short enough supply, people will sell their own kids to have that type of energy available to themselves.


One of the guys on here brought up an interesting post a while ago about what is a barrel of gas really worth.  And he used basic concepts like transportation as the example.


You have to go to a town 300 miles away and you have to bring around 600 pounds of stuff to that town that needs it.  It could be anything.  You have all options available to you.

Walking would take a week or more to get there. Carrying it would require some guys.  At 3 miles an hour, it will take you 100 hours to get to your destination barring injury. 

Take a horse, which costs around $2500 for the horse, but you would have to plan your route according where you can switch out horses on the way to the location.  At a saundering pace with the horse loaded you only go 3 miles per hour because that's how fast you walk with a fully loaded horse.  Since the horse is loaded you have to stop to unload the horse every couple of hours or you'll kill the horse.

The two horse option route, same problem as one horse but double, you go a little faster but it still takes weeks to arrive at your destination and it requires.

Or for $5000 someone offers to drive you there and back same day.


That in a nutshell is how valuable oil is.

Wed, 11/09/2011 - 05:06 | 1859891 JOYFUL
JOYFUL's picture


Glad someone had the wit to equivalate the internal combustion engine to the original 'horse power' measuring stick, but your  post cut right at the point where it seemed you might have leapt to the most logical argument

"The two horse option route, same problem as one horse but double, you go a little faster but it still takes weeks to arrive at your destination and it requires" let me fill in:

although I am an advocate of the "2 fresh mounts" solution to the problems which you mention, as recorded here,,  for large package delivery,  pls note:

sometime in the previous 5 millenia our forebears invented the wheel, which in due consequence they trained the horse to pull, in a variety of scenarios ranging from the war chariot to the humble cart, to the splendor of the full rig. 

With that revolutionary advance, a part of humankind was able to leap forward to a stage of evolution that has yet to be bettered even today! I realize that's kind of counter-intuitive to what your average born in the age of oil guy/gal believes, but I can defend that statement in depth.  But this is a comments page, and I hate when people drone on forever here instead of getting to and sticking to the point....

your stuff would have been delivered in good order, and in timely fashion by my three four legged lads and our four wheeled vehicle, for a price considerably less that of your quote...I have the numbers, but I'll spare the details till somebody asks....due to a big difference in time zones I never get to respond to these comments in time before the thread goes stale...oh well, there's a downside to living outside the hell which the euromerikan zone has become I guess.

At the risk of repeating myself,

God, Gold, and two fresh mounts, the wagon, if you're hauling silver.  Eliminates the need for the Holiday Inn as well. Of course this will not become relevant until after the Gulf of Hormuz close to tanker traffic.


Tue, 11/08/2011 - 14:32 | 1857344 Jonas Parker
Jonas Parker's picture

But... but... oil makes such a mess in my jacket pocket...

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 14:14 | 1857203 ZeroPoint
ZeroPoint's picture

How high is the margin now?? It can't be too long before you can't buy on credit period.

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 14:21 | 1857259 EL INDIO
EL INDIO's picture

There is plenty of leverage out there.

The contracts are for 100oz and at $1800/oz it is worth $180K but the margin is less than $11.5K.

So there is plenty of room for margin hikes.

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 14:24 | 1857283 bill1102inf
bill1102inf's picture

10:1 to 15:1 officially, 1000:1 with a little imagination

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 14:51 | 1857469 SHEEPFUKKER

I don't really understand why people that buy gold/silver on margin don't just settle in physical.   

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 16:18 | 1857970 cat2
cat2's picture

Because they cannot come up with the $ to cover the rest of the trade value.

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 14:17 | 1857232 Downtoolong
Downtoolong's picture

Black gold having a similar reaction. Couldn’t help but notice WTI near triple digits again after falling below $80 in Oct. Made a little money shorting Puts at the time, but, now wishing I had just got long. Maybe next time.

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 18:52 | 1858609 CPL
CPL's picture

There is still upside on WTI, lots of it, all the way to $500 a barrel.  With the sabre rattling going on in Iran/Israel all it would take is a rocket barage to shake another $50 on a barrel.

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 14:24 | 1857281 Lazane
Lazane's picture

forget about hoarding frn, I think me worries more about hoarding long term storable food supplies.

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 14:25 | 1857292 walküre
walküre's picture

Further easing is completely off the table now. They're going to let the world starve.

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 14:26 | 1857306 Rastamann
Rastamann's picture

i NEVER want to see $1700 gold ever again


i don't want to ever see $34 silver again either.

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 14:30 | 1857331 bill1102inf
bill1102inf's picture

What are you talking about? Gold futures are not even over 1800/oz let alone physical.  There wasnt a single point today where you could SELL your physical for 1800+/oz.

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 14:32 | 1857342 bill1102inf
bill1102inf's picture

Want to see golds REAL value? Remove the leverage and you will.  Sub 1000/oz INSTANTLY

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 14:35 | 1857366 Jonas Parker
Jonas Parker's picture

I want to see PHYSICAL gold's real value...

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 14:48 | 1857444 bill1102inf
bill1102inf's picture

Not if your holding it you dont. Golds physical price is manipulated by the futures market which is leveraged 10:1 to 1000:1. Without leverage gold will trade for well less than 1000/oz.  You know it, its just a game, a silly game.

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 15:42 | 1857782 jonan
jonan's picture

wouldn't deflation kick us all in the nuts at this point and a gallon of gas cost .20 cents?  cause last i checked a gallon of gas is actually around .20 cents, pre 1964 change of course...


Tue, 11/08/2011 - 17:40 | 1858360 Panafrican Funk...
Panafrican Funktron Robot's picture

Yeah, but then, where would stocks be without leverage?  That's what I thought, dumbfuck.

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 14:40 | 1857388 walküre
walküre's picture

2008 Oil to $147 before the ship came crashing down.

Got cash?

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 17:16 | 1858255 tmosley
tmosley's picture

And what do you think the Chinese would do with their trillions of dollars that they are wanting to offload?

Thing is, paper and physical gold are different.  Cut paper gold to sub $1000 an ounce, and you will see premiums spike to 50% or higher rather quickly.  IF you can find any at all.  May be stuck buying numismatic crap for $2K+.

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 14:40 | 1857389 Zymurguy
Zymurguy's picture

Only 8 Billion to go for us to reach $15Trillion in debt... couple more days oughta do it.

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 14:46 | 1857429 SHEEPFUKKER

It's totally sustainable.

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 14:41 | 1857396 Mr. Lucky
Mr. Lucky's picture

1969 I ask my dad to buy some gold.  I was laughed out of the room.  He's not laughing now.

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 14:44 | 1857417 SHEEPFUKKER

I hate goodbyes.  ;)

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 15:04 | 1857573 prole
prole's picture

There was a big talker here yesterday talking about shorting gold at 1793 or thereabouts.

He may win, let's see how that plays out.

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 15:18 | 1857635 bearnanke
bearnanke's picture

Already time to change the title to 'Let's drop back to $1700 Gold'...

What a mess...




Tue, 11/08/2011 - 15:29 | 1857687 connel20
connel20's picture

If there is a coordinated printing will gold still benefit?

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 15:33 | 1857716 FranSix
FranSix's picture

One thing you might expect to see out of Germany and the ECB is a lowering of rates, due to financial sector stress.  The ECB has started with lower rates, while Germany can lower to 1/4%.  Certainly the UK might be in the same boat.  The  Bank Of Canada may actually have to resort to the same, but, for the moment a rate cut is imminent, if only short term yields decline further.

If anything will drive the gold price higher is a lowering of interest rates in the Eurozone.

With Dodd-Frank guaranteeing that the gold futures chain remains flat, and very close to backwardation, that would mean that a drastic currency devaluation or monetary crisis is pending in the world.  If Fekete is right that gold backwardation can bring about a monetary disaster, the world is awaiting this outcome, or is very near it.

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 15:35 | 1857731 loveyajimbo
loveyajimbo's picture

I am a huge gold fan... and I spit on the crooks at the CME and the CFTC.  But... be careful, this article is a good one and makes sense: after the posswible collapse and deleveraging, I buy BIG.

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 15:39 | 1857764 EvlTheCat
EvlTheCat's picture


Tue, 11/08/2011 - 16:05 | 1857916 youngandhealthy
youngandhealthy's picture

Golden oportunity to short!

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 16:16 | 1857964 bearnanke
bearnanke's picture

Someone care to guess what caused the $25 drop within one hour after gold broke $1800? Its 'just' 1.5%, but still.. It must have a cause, right?

Anyone willing to trade one ounce of AU for a blue pill that works still...


I want out.



Tue, 11/08/2011 - 16:35 | 1858004 youngandhealthy
youngandhealthy's picture

Hint: Worlds 5th economy's chief in charge will resign....thats why. I am so short one can be....

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 16:51 | 1857991 strannick
strannick's picture

Any goldbugs worth their gold dust will miss $1700 gold and $34 silver. Means they're now more expensive to buy.

Financial archelogists will look back wonder 'why would anyone trade gold and silver for paper backed by promises from government??

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 17:04 | 1858175 GeoffreyT
GeoffreyT's picture

As I pointed out yesterday, I sold $1793 near the close yesterday - despite being a gold bull since my '2002 SuperTrade' back in 2002 (as the name implies) which was "long Gold, Oil and Euro; Short S&P", at $284, $19.60, $0.8460, 1150-odd respectively.

Was a tad early yesterday maybe, but anyone who tries to top-tick will miss more boats than he catches... it sort of HAD to touch $1800 just to get journalists and goldbugs to go full fucktard about how "it's off to the moon", and to tickle the last short stops and attract some late-to-the-dance retard-money.

Sad to see TD talking like a 'breakout trader' though - kinda looks retarded given the current print, yeah? I thought that sort of analysis was confined to ratings agencies... the conflict-ridden fuckwits who make bank by "backcasting" bankruptcies and defaults about whom I wrote in 2004 (see ) and in 2005 (see ) and again in 2008 ( see ). TD, you're better than that.

Investing - and trading - is suppsed to be forward-looking, you see. You pick your time horizon, your instrument, and try to form a sensible experctation of direction. If every retard journalist in the world thinks instrument X is going to the moon, you short it the next time it hits overbought- no need to wait to look at the Dumb Bull Ratio in out-of-date CoT data.

Only dummies buy the terminal phase of $100-in-5-days upmoves (and sell meltdowns of similar magnitude). That's an aphorism that you can take to the fucking bank, time and again.

I call it 'Dumb Money at Work' - whether it's

  • doofi buying AUDUSD at $1.09 and reversing to short at $0.92;
  • retards buying oil at $140 and reversing to short at $40;
  • mongoloids buying EURUSD at $1.50 and reversing to short at $1.15; or
  • numpties buying gold (for the first time) at $1900 and reversing to short at $1600.

You see it all the time, and it's hilarious.

So yeah... being contrarian doesn't feel too bad at present.

I plan to reduce the position by half at $1750, ride the remainder and scalp around it until gold gets overSOLD and the nuffnuffs are all sellers... at which time I reverse to a buying bias for Gold. Anyone who weds themselves to an instrument regardless of price and sentiment is a fucking idiot.

And if history is any guide, I will be slightly early. I was early on the long side of BP.L, too (bought several times between 450p and 330p when the retard crew was declaring it bankrupt). And I bought DAX on Feb22, 2009 (see ). I gritted my teeth (and clenched my sphincter) both times.

When to short EURUSD: see


Tue, 11/08/2011 - 17:13 | 1858233 tmosley
tmosley's picture

So your sell signal is when bulls that have been bulls for years continue to be bulls?


Did you do the math in terms of how much you are going to have to pay in taxes on your gains?  Did you calculate how low gold will have to go before you can buy back in at a post-tax profit?

Do you, as a trader, think at all?  Have you thought about broker risk, something that has come to the fore with the MF Global Fuckstorm?  Do you trust your broker not to steal from you?

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 21:17 | 1859057 boffster
boffster's picture

Thanks for that GT. A shining beacon of sanity in a sea of shit.

Didn't stop me going full fucktard and buying a mini at 1789. But I'm young, I'll learn my lesson one day.

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 17:28 | 1858320 augmister
augmister's picture

Too many trigger fingers here.  Sitting on my cash and waiting for Euro to DIE.   Big rush to dollars and the PMs come back to a double bottom!   One more chance to load the pickup coming.   Patience.

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 17:39 | 1858348 bgilliam83
bgilliam83's picture

You guys are complete idiots and trolls.  You do know, no matter how bad things get, every single ounce of gold will still be there to meet us on the other side right?  We have a functioning economy, and still cannot feed the entire world.  What part of that equation do you morons not understand?  My bet would be on the entire world's economy collapsing too, but what is that going to look like for food distrubution?  You want to talk ratios, well the gold/food ratio puts food at about an all time LOW right before the entire world goes to war and collapses?  Yeah, Ok buy $1700 gold!!  Morons

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 17:55 | 1858424 Conax
Conax's picture
Goodbye $1700 Gold

I don't know why you say goodbye I say hello..

Check Netdania, as always nearly 3 million contracts changed hands in 10 minutes. Nothing to see here, move along, move along.

Tue, 11/08/2011 - 20:37 | 1858966 fritzenheimer
fritzenheimer's picture

Anddddddddd HELLO $1,700s again.

nice reversal.

Wed, 11/09/2011 - 23:05 | 1864372 GeoffreyT
GeoffreyT's picture

OK., so now XAUUSD can't find its ass with both hands - the 'trewella jack' that saw shallow pullbacks the other day (when I shorted 1793, as I will remind every smartass fucktard who went all "internet 12-year-old' in response) is well and truly gone.

I had posted (upthread - can't find it, can't be assed) that I would exit half position at 1750 - I decided to take half off early (at $1758, 5 minutes ago), because something don't smell right.

I still think I will be able to trade around the remaining position - selling overbought - until a washout at or around $1700 even... when all the Dumb-Motherfucker Money (as Sam.L.Jackson might call it) that was lured into the market over the last few days, panics and exits a low just like Goldman's forex team.


(Not for nothin' but thuis is the first time I've seen  TD toptick a short term market - Baby Jeebus cries when contrarians join the herd).


So book me "short Gold $1793, covered half $1758"... 

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