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Goodbye Euro, Hello Drachma

Tyler Durden's picture





 

A few months ago, when Zero Hedge first broke the news that the Drachma is trading at several major banks on a "when issued" basis at the client's request, it was promptly dismissed. Alas, it may be time to dismiss the dismissal, after Spiegel reports that as one of the scenarios considered for a Greek default, Germany anticipates the reintroduction of the drachma by the pathological liars at the Greek parliament. Yes: the currency that Greece was so happy to jettison 10 years ago when after the assistance of Goldman to hide its bloated debt, to much pomp and circumstance it entered the soon to be defunct Eurozone, is coming baaaaack.

From Spiegel, with the article recreated in its entirety as the implications for the EUR, the eurozone, and crony communism as massive:

German Finance Minister Prepares for Possible Greek Bankruptcy

 

German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble, who is reportedly doubtful that the country can be saved from bankruptcy, is preparing for the possibility of Greek insolvency. Officials in his ministry are currently reviewing scenarios for handling such a situation, exploring what it might mean for the rest of the euro zone. Under the first scenario for a Greek bankruptcy, the country would remain in the euro zone. Under the other, Athens would abandon the common currency and reintroduce the drachma.

 

The European bailout mechanism, the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF), is playing a key role in those considerations. Soon the EFSF is expected to be given new powers agreed to by European leaders at a special euro crisis summit in late July. Two instruments at the EFSF's disposal are at the forefront of the Finance Ministry's scenarios.

 

Bankruptcy Could Create Credit Crunch

 

One of these key instruments would be credit lines provided to countries like Spain or Italy if investors stop lending them money after a Greek bankruptcy. If banks were forced to write off the billions in Greek government bonds on their books, they could become reliant on billions in rescue fund aid in numerous euro-zone countries. Both developments are to be expected in a Greek insolvency, regardless of whether the country exits the euro or not.

 

Volker Bouffier, the governor of the state of Hesse, which is home to Germany's financial capital Frankfurt, is a member of Chancellor Angela Merkel's conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU) party, as is Schäuble. Bouffier is now urging that the possibility for countries to leave the euro zone be created quickly. Current European Union treaties provide no provisions for a country to abandon the currency.

 

"If the savings and reform efforts of the Greek government aren't successful, then we need to ask the question of whether we need new rules to make it possible for a euro country to leave the currency union," Bouffier told SPIEGEL.

As for what happens to all the trillions in other interconnected debt, should all Euro bills have to white out the Greek text on then, we imagine the word "prayer" is key.

 


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Sun, 09/11/2011 - 18:10 | Link to Comment cossack55
cossack55's picture

As long as they don't kill the ouzo.

 

Hmmmm DJ Futures down 138 already.

Sun, 09/11/2011 - 18:11 | Link to Comment X.inf.capt
X.inf.capt's picture

no kidding, when i was stationed in west germany, 85-87, i was addicted to that stuff.....

Sun, 09/11/2011 - 18:14 | Link to Comment cossack55
cossack55's picture

Used to buy it in the hills overlooking the NAMFI firing range on Crete for $1/btl. No label. Very good stuff.  Was never sober long enough to get addicted.

Sun, 09/11/2011 - 18:39 | Link to Comment franzpick
franzpick's picture

What they should kill is the drachma, then 'do the Iceland' and introduce the new currency, the ouzo.

Sun, 09/11/2011 - 19:21 | Link to Comment X.inf.capt
X.inf.capt's picture

they would have the strongest currency in the world.

got turned on that stuff by a REDHEADED girl, got addicted to both....

with an exchange rate of 3DM's to 1usd, we lived like kings....

yep, the good old days....

Sun, 09/11/2011 - 19:24 | Link to Comment HarryWanqer
HarryWanqer's picture

I hope so.  I'd buy them up and put them with my stash of Iraqi Dinars.  You can't possible lose when the exchange rate is that extreme.

Sun, 09/11/2011 - 19:26 | Link to Comment Stax Edwards
Stax Edwards's picture

GD counterfeiters LOL

Sun, 09/11/2011 - 20:00 | Link to Comment BaBaBouy
BaBaBouy's picture

Anyone ???

How do you post a friggin image ?

Sun, 09/11/2011 - 20:03 | Link to Comment nmewn
nmewn's picture

Become a contributor.

Sun, 09/11/2011 - 23:06 | Link to Comment Ahmeexnal
Ahmeexnal's picture

And cracks start to surface in Switzerland: UBS voices disapproval of SNB peg.

http://www.tdg.ch/actu/economie/ubs-credit-suisse-desaccord-face-taux-pl...

Sun, 09/11/2011 - 23:36 | Link to Comment knukles
knukles's picture

But Jim (Doesn't the guy spend any time in the office managing his client's money?) O'Neill says it's A Good Thing.  Bet he got that from Martha Stewart.

Mon, 09/12/2011 - 05:06 | Link to Comment Djirk
Djirk's picture

of course this is Wilders holding this.....hater! 

Sun, 09/11/2011 - 20:09 | Link to Comment Trying to Understand
Trying to Understand's picture

go to a site, such as: http://www.postimage.org/ and load your image there, it will generate a link which you can post most anywhere.

Sun, 09/11/2011 - 20:23 | Link to Comment Pure Evil
Pure Evil's picture

Thanks for info.

Sun, 09/11/2011 - 20:51 | Link to Comment FinalCollapse
FinalCollapse's picture

Thanks - I just tried it, and testing it here. This is an image that I find very funny. The title of this image is fitting: "Ooops".

http://postimage.org/image/2zocavmhw/

 

Sun, 09/11/2011 - 21:02 | Link to Comment prains
prains's picture

was that OJ ?

Sun, 09/11/2011 - 21:37 | Link to Comment nmewn
nmewn's picture

If the pic don't fit you must aquit!

Sun, 09/11/2011 - 22:03 | Link to Comment Ahmeexnal
Ahmeexnal's picture

2 Legit 2 Quit

Mon, 09/12/2011 - 00:00 | Link to Comment MayIMommaDogFac...
MayIMommaDogFace2theBananaPatch's picture

was that OJ ?

No, it was OT!

Sun, 09/11/2011 - 22:36 | Link to Comment Pure Evil
Pure Evil's picture

There, I fixed it for you

http://postimage.org/image/2raw8zxqc/

 

Sun, 09/11/2011 - 19:27 | Link to Comment BaBaBouy
BaBaBouy's picture

Ole Faithful ... Test

<img src="http://www.freeimagehosting.net/uploads/46a8b23318.gif" border="0"></a>

 

Sun, 09/11/2011 - 19:36 | Link to Comment X.inf.capt
X.inf.capt's picture

WOW, i think i just saw uncle ben going to walmart to buy a loaf of bread. circa 2012. america

Sun, 09/11/2011 - 22:48 | Link to Comment e2thex
e2thex's picture

What was the exchange rate for the red=head? :)

Mon, 09/12/2011 - 00:30 | Link to Comment X.inf.capt
X.inf.capt's picture

exchange? free.  you just had to be very careful arourd them. dont piss them off. case in point. of all female sniper aces inrussian army wwll, 62% were redheads...(5 sniper kills=ace). but you treat a redhead with respect and do what she asks, life is awesome, because redheads are passionate, in love and war.......better than mortal man deserves.

Sun, 09/11/2011 - 23:57 | Link to Comment thunderchief
thunderchief's picture

I don't like Ouzo.

I like Pernot.

Viva La France.

Sun, 09/11/2011 - 19:33 | Link to Comment Freewheelin Franklin
Freewheelin Franklin's picture

and introduce the new currency, the ouzo.

 

HAHA. In colonial New Jersey, applejack was used as currency.

Sun, 09/11/2011 - 20:29 | Link to Comment Doña K
Doña K's picture

Greeks should have dual currency. Ouzo and Vaseline

Sun, 09/11/2011 - 21:01 | Link to Comment X.inf.capt
X.inf.capt's picture

BOHICA.......BITCHEZ

Sun, 09/11/2011 - 22:50 | Link to Comment mkkby
mkkby's picture

I'm going to catch hell for this, but so what...  The euro isn't going away and nobody's leaving it.  The euro was just a step toward one european gov, and one world gov.

The EU will print, the fed will print, japan will print, swiss... -- everyone will print.  They won't let the political dream die.

The sales pitch is a unified europe won't have another world war.  True, but large parts of the world can and will starve after the bankers take everything worth taking.  The sheeple will eventually vote it in.  What choice do they have?

Mon, 09/12/2011 - 03:25 | Link to Comment AnAnonymous
AnAnonymous's picture

The euro isn't going away and nobody's leaving it. The euro was just a step toward one european gov, and one world gov.
::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::

One world government? Again that?

No. One world government is not in the box.

we've got one side of the world that is on the path of increasing critical mass in order to avoid pay back. Extorters have this in common: they will try to make it so that retaliation on one extorter matter to all of them.

Indeed, Europeans will try to melt into one european in order to achieve. After that step, the US and Europe will try to merge.

This same side also tries to atomize as much as possible the other sides. Because extorters have this in common: they hate extorted organizing themselves in order to resist extortion. Extorters want extorted as unorganized, as isolated, as lonely as possible.

No one world government. Just one side of the world that is fleeing ahead in order to avoid pay back by diluting more and more its responsibility.

Mon, 09/12/2011 - 03:57 | Link to Comment DaBernank
DaBernank's picture

The League of Nations will make a come back.

Mon, 09/12/2011 - 09:58 | Link to Comment X.inf.capt
X.inf.capt's picture

lets hope not......

Sun, 09/11/2011 - 18:43 | Link to Comment DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

"Was never sober long enough to get addicted."

Nice line!  Green!  Green reminds me of absinthe....

Sun, 09/11/2011 - 20:12 | Link to Comment IQ 145
IQ 145's picture

You beat me to it; it's a peachy line. Your avatar always brings a smile; as an engineer, of course, I am addicted to rolling element bearings !

Sun, 09/11/2011 - 22:04 | Link to Comment Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

You sir, are a genius!

V

How America Got it's Power

Sun, 09/11/2011 - 19:22 | Link to Comment Manthong
Manthong's picture

Souda Bay Rock Club transient member, here. My beverage of choice there was Greek Amstel. Ouzo boilermakers worked OK if I recall correctly.

Of course, there is a lot I can't recall correctly from back then.

Sun, 09/11/2011 - 18:14 | Link to Comment Mike2756
Mike2756's picture

Ahhh, the good old days, when you got a decent mark rate.

Sun, 09/11/2011 - 18:32 | Link to Comment spiral_eyes
spiral_eyes's picture

 

"I am sure the Euro will oblige us to introduce a new set of economic policy instruments. It is politically impossible to propose that now. But some day there will be a crisis and new instruments will be created."

— Romano Prodi, EU Commission President, December 2001

Didn't quite work out like that, did it?

http://azizonomics.com/2011/09/11/big-change-for-europe/ 

 

Sun, 09/11/2011 - 18:45 | Link to Comment HitTheFan
HitTheFan's picture

It's just Greece defaulting, they do it on average every 12 years. In no way does this reflect on the viability of the Euro itself, which is supranational, and has 65% of its reserves as gold (and watch for that to increase).

The Euro is a good thing, it was designed to replace the dollar when that fails. Should the Euro fail, will you be happy to see gold and oil at 30 to 40 times their current levels?

Read a bit more, rather than writing sensationalist rubbish.

Sun, 09/11/2011 - 18:52 | Link to Comment Popo
Popo's picture

Lol. Way to completely misunderstand the significance of a Eurozone nation defaulting.

Mon, 09/12/2011 - 04:21 | Link to Comment spiral_eyes
spiral_eyes's picture

@HitTheFan

"Should the Euro fail, will you be happy to see gold and oil at 30 to 40 times their current levels?" 

I have hedged accordingly for that eventuality.  

Mon, 09/12/2011 - 07:30 | Link to Comment Léonard
Léonard's picture

@Popo

Haven't you heard what Jim Rogers said the other day ? I know ZH misleaded us on that one but the guy (and so does China and Russia) believes in Europe :

If Greece default, "the euro will go down a far amount. But I would buy all the euro I could at that point because then that would mean that Europe is going to have a very strong, sound currency," he explained.

http://www.businessinsider.com/jim-rogers-buy-all-the-euros-you-can-if-g...

Europe has industries, infrastructures and gold to back the Euro and also a tied and well educated population.

What has the USA in comparison ? Nothing. No more industry. No job creation. No gold. Trillions of debt. A divised nation with a sick, fat and ignorant population. A dying agriculture exterminated by chemicals and GMO. Natural desasters and no man's lands all over the country.

The dollar is backed by a mirage.

Sun, 09/11/2011 - 18:53 | Link to Comment kito
kito's picture

@hitthefan, normally you would be right about greece just defaulting, but there is the concern of what follows--- spain, italy, portugal, etc. its a much different situation than the last time greece "just defaulted". we are on the precipice of european debt implosion. the amount of bonds and swaps out there lurking in banks that already have limited liquidity is keeping european leaders up at night. so maybe you should read a bit more, rather than writing myopic views of what a greek default entails.

Sun, 09/11/2011 - 19:07 | Link to Comment Stax Edwards
Stax Edwards's picture

I for one think the pain the Greeks departure will provide stern motivation to the others to get their houses in order or suffer the same fate.  I have changed my tune from Euro failure, and I was banking on it. 

Greece is out IMO, and let it be a sobering lesson to the others.

Sun, 09/11/2011 - 19:16 | Link to Comment kito
kito's picture

get their houses in order? thats laughable. how? with global growth already anemic, will the rest of the spendthrifts make the necessary cuts, or will they just make token gestures like raising alcohol taxes and then make promises about real change that will shirley fix the problem in some undetermined date in the future?

Mon, 09/12/2011 - 00:07 | Link to Comment MayIMommaDogFac...
MayIMommaDogFace2theBananaPatch's picture

Awesome photo. 

And don't call me surely.

Sun, 09/11/2011 - 21:37 | Link to Comment AustriAnnie
AustriAnnie's picture

I agree @kito.  I don't see a painless way out of this one.

How does one get a house in order when Ponzi built the foundation?

 

Mon, 09/12/2011 - 00:10 | Link to Comment Zap Brannigan
Zap Brannigan's picture

...and don't  call me shirley

 

cripes too late

Sun, 09/11/2011 - 19:18 | Link to Comment Lord Welligton
Lord Welligton's picture

"let it be a sobering lesson to the others"

What lesson?

That money is created out of thin air?

That money is created as debt by banks?

Sun, 09/11/2011 - 20:28 | Link to Comment disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

If you're not killing germans they're killing you seems to be the lesson so far.

Sun, 09/11/2011 - 21:48 | Link to Comment GhostfaceCracka
GhostfaceCracka's picture

The Germans are bastards because they no longer want to prop up terminally broke free-loading liars in Grreece? What is your idiotic comment even supposed to mean?

Mon, 09/12/2011 - 02:23 | Link to Comment Freddie
Freddie's picture

Cool. The guy with the white hair is Dutchman Geert Wilders who is a MP in Holland.  He is under death threat from the Islamics.   Holland and Finland have also said - ENOUGH to the bailouts.

Mon, 09/12/2011 - 08:37 | Link to Comment MS7
MS7's picture

Everyone in the EC is a bastard because it is completely obvious that Greece should have defaulted. They're pretending that if they cut people's pensions and salaries and jobs that magically they'll have more money, when the opposite is the case. The economy is getting worse and worse as more debt is accumulated. Any patriotic Greek government would have defaulted as soon as they "discovered" that they and the other leading party had been cooking the book for decades. They are all playing games, including Germany. If Germany expelled Greece it would be doing Greece a favor. The money they are using to "bail out" Greece really is for French and German banks.

Sun, 09/11/2011 - 19:24 | Link to Comment Ahmeexnal
Ahmeexnal's picture

Right, and don't forget once those "periphery" PIIGS go bust, who's going to buy all the crap from France and Germany? They drained all blood from their captive patrons and they will go down in flames with them as well.

Mon, 09/12/2011 - 00:14 | Link to Comment Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

You know who? India.

Never seen such a full court press in the auto sector especially..... BMW/AUDI/BENZ/VW.....

Selling Indian's cars they cannot afford, on roads that these cars are dead on (no ground clearence, 2 ft deep potholes common), guzzle gas in an economy where we have one of the highest gas prices in the world....

Now the French, Renault, Peugot.... it's quite hilarious actually. And these cars are huge and indian traffic is a SQUEEZE. And Groupe Dannone, trying to sell Yogurt to India.... on and on the circus turns.

Supply Side Driven Globalization, FTW!

V

Mon, 09/12/2011 - 05:52 | Link to Comment StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Yogurt is good for you...WARM yogurt, not so much! :>D

Mon, 09/12/2011 - 07:30 | Link to Comment Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

Hah SK! Sounds as bad as Warm Beer! Why would anyone drink warm beer?

V

Sun, 09/11/2011 - 19:45 | Link to Comment knukles
knukles's picture

"Should the Euro fail, will you be happy to see gold and oil at 30 to 40 times their current levels?"

YES

Sun, 09/11/2011 - 20:09 | Link to Comment zorba THE GREEK
zorba THE GREEK's picture

Me too, Knukles, and don't forget silver.

Sun, 09/11/2011 - 20:15 | Link to Comment nmewn
nmewn's picture

Because it will be a wash.

Fiat backed by nothing but pontificating blowhards, backstabbing goodwill, debt & credit will be shown for what it is and always has been when it was tried throughout history...a complete failure.

Plus...we get to see Krugmans head explode ;-)

Sun, 09/11/2011 - 20:48 | Link to Comment Uncle Remus
Uncle Remus's picture

Plus...we get to see Krugmans head explode ;-)

Be sure to dress Gallagherized for this event.

 


Sun, 09/11/2011 - 21:02 | Link to Comment nmewn
nmewn's picture

;-)

I'm long trash bags.

Sun, 09/11/2011 - 22:18 | Link to Comment A Nanny Moose
A Nanny Moose's picture

Can't we just wait for Zombies to eat his brai...Never mind

Mon, 09/12/2011 - 08:24 | Link to Comment krispkritter
Sun, 09/11/2011 - 22:08 | Link to Comment Ahmeexnal
Ahmeexnal's picture

Knukles: gold and oil at 30-40X. silver at 100X.  And Merkel's & Sarko's heads on a pike!

Sun, 09/11/2011 - 20:20 | Link to Comment IQ 145
IQ 145's picture

The inevitable fiscal failure of Greece seems certain to cause a huge surge in precious metals prices; which I will welcome.  If the ski-ramp were steep and high enough; I might sell out near the top, also. I believe Greece can be "de-coupled" from the Euro, one way or another, without the "failure" of the Euro; but this will be a traumatic event for financiers. Oil doesn't seem to be priced by "fear", or un-certainty, as the metals are.

Sun, 09/11/2011 - 21:03 | Link to Comment breezer1
breezer1's picture

PMs are priced by the crooks. everyone including china are happy with that while accumulation continues. we are approaching a newer stage of physical demand where sound money stays saved while the paper stuff gets spent. thats when they will lose control and default will be official.

Sun, 09/11/2011 - 18:32 | Link to Comment High Plains Drifter
High Plains Drifter's picture

did you partake of the nice lebanese blond?

Sun, 09/11/2011 - 18:49 | Link to Comment cossack55
cossack55's picture

Uhhhhh, no comment.

Sun, 09/11/2011 - 19:09 | Link to Comment mt paul
mt paul's picture

blood shot blond

little streaks of red runnig thru it

circa 1972...

harsh...

Sun, 09/11/2011 - 19:56 | Link to Comment High Plains Drifter
High Plains Drifter's picture

how about afghan black?  did you get it from the mp's ......

Sun, 09/11/2011 - 23:47 | Link to Comment mt paul
mt paul's picture

gold seal afgani black..

use to get it from 

proffesor and bananas...

400. $ a kilo

Sun, 09/11/2011 - 19:37 | Link to Comment Freewheelin Franklin
Freewheelin Franklin's picture

Lebenese blond. I haven't heard that term in about 30 years.

Sun, 09/11/2011 - 19:57 | Link to Comment High Plains Drifter
High Plains Drifter's picture

a kilo for a hundred dollars.........ah the good old days....

Sun, 09/11/2011 - 21:57 | Link to Comment CD
Mon, 09/12/2011 - 00:08 | Link to Comment Dantzler
Dantzler's picture

Great track and aptly named band!

Sun, 09/11/2011 - 20:51 | Link to Comment Uncle Remus
Uncle Remus's picture

did you partake of the nice lebanese blond?

OMG

Sun, 09/11/2011 - 21:51 | Link to Comment High Plains Drifter
High Plains Drifter's picture

oh come on. is there anything wrong with walking around in a daze all day long......?

Sun, 09/11/2011 - 23:50 | Link to Comment mt paul
mt paul's picture

the girls

put 20 grams of black hash

in a pan of brownies..

"nobody" ate too...

he got really high........

Mon, 09/12/2011 - 00:14 | Link to Comment MayIMommaDogFac...
MayIMommaDogFace2theBananaPatch's picture

You know what they say:

"A hash-pipe a day --" 

uh, umm -- I can't remember the rest. 8-/

Mon, 09/12/2011 - 00:44 | Link to Comment High Plains Drifter
High Plains Drifter's picture

used to mix it up in the bowl with a little tobacco and then you partake and it puts a whole new outlook on the day....i used to go smoke with the brothers. they didn't like whitey too much, but they didn't seem to mind having me around....whatever. i think they liked texans.....ha ha ha 

Mon, 09/12/2011 - 09:36 | Link to Comment Uncle Remus
Uncle Remus's picture

Back then, no.

Sun, 09/11/2011 - 18:42 | Link to Comment I think I need ...
I think I need to buy a gun's picture

crash season starting bitchez

Sun, 09/11/2011 - 20:32 | Link to Comment smiler03
smiler03's picture

Ouzo - Its also a very powerful mosquito repellent, might even work on vampiric banksters.

Sun, 09/11/2011 - 18:15 | Link to Comment LoneStarHog
LoneStarHog's picture

The PUKES at the PPT must still be sobering-up after their 9/11 "celebration" and have not reported to work, yet.  Give them time.  They will report before New York open.

Sun, 09/11/2011 - 18:30 | Link to Comment knukles
knukles's picture

Betcha just like last week; that 4000 contract order on the COMEX in the middle of the night, no capacity for volume, dumped unceremoniously.  Indeed, not a sophisticated bit of trading, just begging to be noticed as in "Big Splash Lookie Here Folks."

Was only 12.5 tons (4000 contracts at 100 oz/contract = 400000oz, with 32,000 oz/ton = 12.5 tons)

And golly gee wiz folks, did any of you all notice that Libya was a large seller of gold some time within the last week or two "in order to pay administrative salaries and costs of war."
Fuck me....
No way.  When the West Finances a Revolution, it's on MasterCard for the frequent flier bonus points.  That was (IMHO) the Brits making sure they had enough physical for the BoE to ship Caesar Chavez in Venezuela part of his 99 tons of butter bars on the wall.

I might have been born at night but not last night for Christ's sake.
Ah, pattern recognition.

Sun, 09/11/2011 - 19:03 | Link to Comment bob_dabolina
bob_dabolina's picture

With Paulson being down some 30% YTD and continual down pressure on the stock market what is the #1 holder of GLD thinking about right now? 

If the market keeps going down and we start seeing redemption requests the gold market could get interesting.

If he starts selling in size and selling starts to beget more selling....well, the last one sitting as they say. Few if any will know when he's selling as the orders will be routed through darkpools. 

I think gold is over extended but that's my opinion. That's what makes a market. 

That was some interesting research on gold from MS that ZH released earlier. Morgan Stanley of course being the 5th largest holder of GLD.

Sun, 09/11/2011 - 19:06 | Link to Comment jdelano
jdelano's picture

Wondered about that as well. I co manage a portfolio with a little piece invested in the advantage fund. We thought about redeeming but are in the gold class so not running for the exit. He's also 47 % net long as of the last con call a few weeks ago which tells me he's steering the ship around--likely fully hedged at this point. Well probably let it ride at this point--paulson's a crafty sort, still think there's a chance he could emerge in a year or two smelling like roses. Hope most of his other clients arrive at the same conclusion though...

Sun, 09/11/2011 - 19:16 | Link to Comment bob_dabolina
bob_dabolina's picture

Look at the price action of gold around AUG 23 and juxtapose it against the price action of CITI...

When you're a player of that size you can influence price but only for so long. The market however, is too big for that to last over extended periods and eventually someone gets killed.

....the market always catches on.

Sun, 09/11/2011 - 19:17 | Link to Comment jdelano
jdelano's picture

Mm. Point taken.

Sun, 09/11/2011 - 19:29 | Link to Comment knukles
knukles's picture

Absolutely.
Most absolutely.

For example, when trying to influence markets, often the Law of Unintended Consequences comes home to roost.  Example QE's.  Meant in part to not only inject reserves into the banking system, but lower interest rates through buying notes and bonds.
Golly gee wiz, Batman!
Whilst in the process of buying the treasuries etc., rates rose!
Upon completion of the QE's rates fell!

Why?
Inflation Expectations.  The greater the injection of reserves, the greater the inflation expectations (greatest driver of longer dated paper in f/i markets) the higher rates go.

Absolutely.....

Sun, 09/11/2011 - 19:12 | Link to Comment jdelano
jdelano's picture

Also think he'll do everything he can to preserve the gold trade..

Sun, 09/11/2011 - 19:24 | Link to Comment bob_dabolina
bob_dabolina's picture

I think he'll do everything he can to preserve his own ass. Pitching confidence is a tough crow to feed your investors after taking as much as a 37% loss in 8 months.

You can only ride on the coat tails of the sub-prime trade for so long (especially when the architect of the trade no longer works for him, Paulo)

Sun, 09/11/2011 - 19:32 | Link to Comment jdelano
jdelano's picture

Yeah-- read the book too and don't entirely disagree but what I give Paulson credit for is having the balls to back up the trade (and Paolo who was essentially a nobody wash-out at that point, agreed?) in the face of extensive losses just because he saw that the trade was correct and would ultimately pan out. Also, a trade like that deserves a good long coattail ride, especially given that he convinced me to start buying gold in early 2010... When/if the miners kick in he'll be looking better than most methinks.

Sun, 09/11/2011 - 19:52 | Link to Comment bob_dabolina
bob_dabolina's picture

Absolutely agree that it took some balls. I am bearish on gold in the short term. I did a post tonight on it in my blog (which people call spam even though it's completely free and I don't benefit from it in anyway other than to share my opinion and portfolio) 

It's actually an analysis done by another individual who is bullish on gold and he talks about it in the vid I posted. I am in the process of preparing a far more lenghty presentation on the gold market, but I think his analysis is great. The first part is about stocks, gold is the last half.

Check it out if you want

http://tradeonfire.blogspot.com/2011/09/chart-pattern-trader.html

Sun, 09/11/2011 - 19:06 | Link to Comment knukles
knukles's picture

Oh no doubt...
If this unfolds as seems to be consensus here at ZH, there are going to be some very large margin calls on big pools of money of his ilk.  And what with one of the major profitable positions some of those folk have, there will be pressure on gold.

However.... If them folk own GLD (or other paper substitute so to speak) the sale will not manifest itself on the COMEX as was done last week, for that's the futures and option establishment for (supposedly) real delivery of underlying LBMA or otherwise COMEX approved good delivery bullion.

The sloppiness of the COMEX sale (reinforced by the rumors) scream non-commercial (ie governmental, etc.)

Some tugging of war, eh?  Non commercial sellers, spec and investment buying, margin calls.  T'will be a real rollie-coaster of a ride!

"Stay shiny, my friend."tm

 

 

Sun, 09/11/2011 - 20:27 | Link to Comment IQ 145
IQ 145's picture

You notice the price is a little down from the recent highs, tho. I read the market as "a little" overbought; but not nearly enough to be an indicator. I think the price will be stable this week; maybe gain a few bucks.

Sun, 09/11/2011 - 18:36 | Link to Comment maxmad
maxmad's picture

PPT is still hungover on some Greek Island... Soon they will call it home!

Mon, 09/12/2011 - 01:24 | Link to Comment Hammer Time
Mon, 09/12/2011 - 01:51 | Link to Comment the tower
the tower's picture

Yes it's Wilders. The ultra-nationalists in Europe (Wilders, Le Pen, SVP and others) are the ones banking on Europe to break up. They are supported by The Jewish Defense League (Wilders received many millions of $$ this year) and undisclosed supporters that funnel money through Switzerland to Le Pen, Wilders, Denmark etc.

The extreme right is preparing to take control as soon as Europe falls, funny thing that the neo-nazis are now backed by the Jewish bankers...

Mon, 09/12/2011 - 02:25 | Link to Comment Freddie
Freddie's picture

I knew some French Jews who left. They said France and most of Europe is over for the Jews.  Wilders is pro-Dutch and not a neo-nazi - you must be a neo-Islamic.  I am not pro-Zionist either.  PEople should stay where they come froma nd where they belong.

Mon, 09/12/2011 - 05:32 | Link to Comment AnAnonymous
AnAnonymous's picture

PEople should stay where they come froma nd where they belong.

:::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::

Mass migration from the US to Europe then?

Mon, 09/12/2011 - 01:39 | Link to Comment Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Futures were down all weekend. What happens when Europe collapses? Investors run to cash? Dollars? Euros? is there a difference? What about gold? Silver?
I made a beer with wormwood tea and juniper tea once. I think we will be fine if the world collapses.

Sun, 09/11/2011 - 18:07 | Link to Comment achmachat
achmachat's picture

So... The greek lie about their finances to enter the Euro, take it down after 10 years and then go back to their old currency?
Were they mad at Europe for something?!

Sun, 09/11/2011 - 18:17 | Link to Comment ISEEIT
ISEEIT's picture

Pretty sure it was just good ole' leftist (thinking) they had a sugar daddy.

Now its fucking next Tuesday. The hamburger is gone, and those on the other side of the ponzi are pissed.

Sun, 09/11/2011 - 18:38 | Link to Comment knukles
knukles's picture

Mad? 
Not in the least.

I've had considerable conversation with serious Greek business folk who are entirely open about SkullFucking (my words, not theirs, but that's what the Street calls it) "the Germans".  They're quite proud of the way they've miked "the Germans" for all the loot for roads, schools, hospitals, etc.  And are interested in keeping the Ponzi going for as long as is possible.
Then go belly and walk the bill.
Most importantly, they were Very Specific that this was not just Their Views, but held Widely Throughout Greece.  For which he cited the riots.....
Walk the bill, don't you (Greek Government) dare charge me (Greek Public) for the ride.

Sun, 09/11/2011 - 18:49 | Link to Comment WestVillageIdiot
WestVillageIdiot's picture

I think the Irish and Spanish have the same attitude.  They milked the EU for tons of capital improvements.  They are pretty happy about that.

The Greeks are really screwed.  Who will have a wallet big enough to carry those bills around?  They are fucking huge.  That is going to be a problem.

Sun, 09/11/2011 - 19:00 | Link to Comment Prometheus418
Prometheus418's picture

I believe the plan is for them to wear them as togas.

Sun, 09/11/2011 - 22:28 | Link to Comment A Nanny Moose
A Nanny Moose's picture

How will they spent it? Will smaller bills be smaller in size? That could be a problem in some situations...aesthetically speaking.

Sun, 09/11/2011 - 19:04 | Link to Comment saulysw
saulysw's picture

The Greeks are really screwed.  Who will have a wallet big enough to carry those bills around?  They are fucking huge.  That is going to be a problem.

LOL! That caught me by surprise. Nice one.

Sun, 09/11/2011 - 19:42 | Link to Comment FiscalCrater
FiscalCrater's picture

Upfitting the coke machines and ATMs is going to be a bitch.

Sun, 09/11/2011 - 20:34 | Link to Comment smiler03
smiler03's picture

They have coke machines??

Sun, 09/11/2011 - 23:48 | Link to Comment knukles
knukles's picture

While in Search of the Giant Rat of Sumatra....
(knock, knock)
Little Billy:  Oh, hi Mr. Holmes, Dr. Watson!  Come on in.  Can I get you a can of coke?
Holmes:  Watson, I didn't know coke came in cans in this country!

Sun, 09/11/2011 - 20:38 | Link to Comment SilverFish
SilverFish's picture

Invest in Chinese cow leather....... to make the huge wallets they'll need.

Sun, 09/11/2011 - 19:16 | Link to Comment topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

he meant the germans.  Those on the other side of the ponzi who gave away the hamburger before ensuring payment for said burger.

Mon, 09/12/2011 - 08:45 | Link to Comment MS7
MS7's picture

So you call it leftist for the government to cut the wages and pensions of those who can least afford it, and not touch the vast amounts of money owned by the richest people in the country? To drag the economy down a cliff so as not to hurt the bankers by a default? That is what Greek government of today is doing. It is not leftist even though it is called "socialist"; two years ago the government was conservative. The two parties that have been ruling for decades are corrupt and give favors to their supporters. It does not have to do with ideology.

Sun, 09/11/2011 - 19:05 | Link to Comment Two Towers AU AG
Two Towers AU AG's picture

They love to smack Europe once every few years.. just to remind them who's Europe's daddy.

Nothing Personal just Tradition

Sun, 09/11/2011 - 18:08 | Link to Comment xtop23
xtop23's picture

Whatever the reasons behind doing it I for one am glad. The Euro was a disaster at inception Ill be happy to watch it disintegrate.

Sun, 09/11/2011 - 18:38 | Link to Comment maxmad
maxmad's picture

Yep, even though we will all be saying that from our new cardboard box mcmansions.....

Sun, 09/11/2011 - 18:54 | Link to Comment WestVillageIdiot
WestVillageIdiot's picture

I believe your plan is a little optimistic.  If I recall right we ship our used cardboard to China for recycling. 

Sun, 09/11/2011 - 19:45 | Link to Comment Kayman
Kayman's picture

we ship our used cardboard to China for recycling

And it comes back as toothpaste.

Sun, 09/11/2011 - 20:27 | Link to Comment Freewheelin Franklin
Freewheelin Franklin's picture

I lol'd

Sun, 09/11/2011 - 20:30 | Link to Comment IQ 145
IQ 145's picture

!! LOL

Sun, 09/11/2011 - 22:32 | Link to Comment A Nanny Moose
A Nanny Moose's picture

But we kept the shipping containers in which all those cardboard boxes containing stuff were shipped.

They are the new cardboard

Sun, 09/11/2011 - 22:35 | Link to Comment A Nanny Moose
A Nanny Moose's picture

But we kept the shipping containers in which all those cardboard boxes containing stuff were shipped.

They are the new cardboard

Sun, 09/11/2011 - 19:14 | Link to Comment topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

at the right price a cardboard box mcmansion is a good deal. 

Sun, 09/11/2011 - 20:25 | Link to Comment WmMcK
WmMcK's picture

Happy Meal tycoons.

Sun, 09/11/2011 - 18:08 | Link to Comment Mike2756
Mike2756's picture

Bullish for the Euro as the bum countries get kicked out?

Sun, 09/11/2011 - 18:11 | Link to Comment xtop23
xtop23's picture

Bullish for the USD and the insane asylum crowd in D.C.

Sun, 09/11/2011 - 18:42 | Link to Comment maxmad
maxmad's picture

bullish maybe for 2 weeks-then impact...

Sun, 09/11/2011 - 18:57 | Link to Comment xtop23
xtop23's picture

 Agreed . I should have specified short term

Sun, 09/11/2011 - 19:07 | Link to Comment Benthamite
Benthamite's picture

Seems Jim Rogers thinks so.  

Sun, 09/11/2011 - 18:18 | Link to Comment unum mountaineer
unum mountaineer's picture

at this point it doesn't matter who leaves the currency union..

Sun, 09/11/2011 - 18:09 | Link to Comment SimplePrinciple
SimplePrinciple's picture

How many drachma will it take to buy a Zimbabwe one hundred trillion dollar bill?

Sun, 09/11/2011 - 18:12 | Link to Comment cossack55
cossack55's picture

At the Zimbabwe Dollar Swap Window it will take 100 Trillion.

Sun, 09/11/2011 - 18:20 | Link to Comment Founders Keeper
Founders Keeper's picture

1 Drachillion.

Sun, 09/11/2011 - 23:55 | Link to Comment mt paul
mt paul's picture

Drachzilla...

Sun, 09/11/2011 - 18:39 | Link to Comment knukles
knukles's picture

one

Sun, 09/11/2011 - 18:09 | Link to Comment voshnishki
voshnishki's picture

sNap!

Sun, 09/11/2011 - 18:09 | Link to Comment doomandbloom
doomandbloom's picture

an illusion of wealth will disappear....good for all of us...

People will still work together....yes the gamblers will go into severe shock, but then they should not have believed in this game so much.

Sun, 09/11/2011 - 18:11 | Link to Comment Mongo
Mongo's picture

I bet the morons at the IMF are scratching their balls just out of excitment of what this will bring.....

Sun, 09/11/2011 - 18:13 | Link to Comment yabyum
yabyum's picture

Lira bitches! It was the onlt time in my life I was a millionaire. 

Mon, 09/12/2011 - 01:14 | Link to Comment Milestones
Milestones's picture

Was in Istanbul in 2003? and had some 10,000,000 notes which were worth maybe $8.00 U.S. and left and went to Moscow where the bills were stolen out of my suitcase by some rooskies who apparently thought they had hit the jackpot. My only trip to Millionare status. I'm still pissed when I think about it.       Milestones

Sun, 09/11/2011 - 18:14 | Link to Comment gwar5
gwar5's picture

Er, any chance they keep their gold and back the Drachma with it? Thought not.... doesn't hurt to ask.  I hope they default, jettison their communist ways, and make a comeback. Greece is like a tiny-Soviet implosion with more drama.

Looks like cheap Greek vacations will be available. Never been. Dropping a few bucks there would not hurt their economy.

 

Sun, 09/11/2011 - 18:17 | Link to Comment Mike2756
Mike2756's picture

Assuming they will be working and not rioting.

Sun, 09/11/2011 - 18:23 | Link to Comment gwar5
gwar5's picture

Good point. Wait until the Greek pirates have abated before taking a cruise. 

Sun, 09/11/2011 - 18:35 | Link to Comment jimmyjames
jimmyjames's picture

Er, any chance they keep their gold and back the Drachma with it?

************

That is what they should do-the Drachma would go to the moon and then they could buy enough whatever currencies and easily pay down their debt-

The chances of a accidently launched nuke landing in Athens is likely what's stopping them-

Sun, 09/11/2011 - 18:41 | Link to Comment BigJim
BigJim's picture

I've been visiting Greece for the last 20 years. They were once a very hospitable people, but (unsurprisingly) many now view foreigners the way wolves view sheep. Just too many tourists.

If you do go, I recommend visiting the hinterlands, where some of the people have never seen a tourist. You can still roll up, visit the only taverna, get a great meal, and ask around for a room (yes, you'll need to learn a few Greek phrases, because 99% of the rural Greeks don't speak English) and stay somewhere clean and cheap.

I remember on one of my first visits, I wound up staying with a family, whose grandfather was very polite but very stiff... turned out he thought I was German. When I made it clear I was not, he broke out the Ouzo and started reminiscing about all the Germans he'd fought alongside my countrymen whilst being a partisan. Once you get away from the tourist areas the people are very interested and interesting and you'll have a lot of adventures.

Anyway... maybe once they see their currency collapse and EU largesse dry up, they'll be a little more grateful for their tourist revenue, and the main tourist centers will be worth visiting again, too.

Sun, 09/11/2011 - 19:12 | Link to Comment topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

Nothing like a currency collapse to make the natives more obsequious to the tourists.  I like my natives to grovel when I am on vacation.  You can get really really hot girls cheap.

On the other hand you have to watch out for the ripoffs and the knife in the back.  Any anti foreigner sentiment is well hidden in tough times, but it is more dangerous.

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