Grant On Bernanke's Continuing "Grand Manipulation"

Tyler Durden's picture

In preparation for what we are about to receive from the Charmain of the Fed, may we be truly grateful, Jim Grant offered CNBC's Maria B the forthright advice last night "prepare for platitudes but watch what they are doing not what they are saying". The ever outspoken Grant notes that the Fed's balance sheet has been contracting (unlike Maria's mainstream perspective); for the past three months the Fed's balance sheet has contracted at an annualized rate of 10% - even as Fed-head after Fed-head talk up QE and so on. So unless they continue buying securities - since the short-dated positions will continue to roll off - the Fed's balance sheet will continue to contract and therefore the stimulative effect will fall. Grant does expect QE3 since it is the fun-drug that we have been using for 4 or 5 years and that Bernanke will need little pushing to continue the Grand Manipulation. He ends on a rather interesting note that the Wisconsin win and the potential for an Obama loss in November may be more of a positive driver for stocks since markets begin to revert to a free market once again - we suspect this is not the case given the donors/beneficiaries under Romney's wing. But rest assured - the bespectacled bear ends on the chilling note that 'the long-term implications are bad' for the ongoing manipulation that is now the status quo.


and from Goldman, if there was any doubt of Grant's comments on the implicit tightening - or inverse flow - as they present the embedded tightening opportunity cost for the Fed it does nothing.

The bottom line here is that if the Fed does nothing then there is an implicit 5-10bps of rate-hike tightening per quarter implicit in the balance sheet roll-down (50bps in next 3 years) - so when considering the Fed's actions, discount the effect of this automatic tightening before buying the S&P at 2000...

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fonzannoon's picture

Thanks for this ZH. I was looking for it.

Precious's picture

Did you know?  Bernanke provided the inspiration for the crack manufacturer on "Breaking Bad".

Ookspay's picture

Ben will print, timmy will give it to europa and we will all be paying the tab soooon. This crack binge will last about a week.

Sudden Debt's picture

you make it sound so negative....



Believe me, the person who'll receive it will feel a lot better!

I'll send it to.... Jhon Doe!

in.... Springfield!

on... Elmstreet!

number... 13!


I am more equal than others's picture

I'm looking to move to a country or place than is immune to this stuff and is operated by sane, well-thought people.  Any suggestions?  Or should I open a unicorn ranch instead?

Carl Spackler's picture

...operated by sane, well-thought people...

Wisconsin is open for business and has a sane leader who just overcame the forces of labor corruption.

Thank you, Scott Walker.

Joseph Jones's picture

I'm not a Singapore "expert", but have learned quite a bit over the past 2+ years working on a new product with a lifetime Singapore resident. 

IIRC, Singapore requires a state-issued "license" to purchase residential real estate...and the tinest (by USA standards) condo (maybe around 1k sf) costs about $750k USD.

You can drive across the sovereign state in about 30 minutes. 


Jim Grant man crush. 

Precious's picture

Dear God.  If possible in our lifetime, please stop subjecting us to Buffett's hoary platitudes.

Ookspay's picture

GOD: Dear Precious, I gave you gun powder and projectiles, the rest is up to you. Fuck, do I have to do everything!

narnia's picture

Mr. Grant has not thought out the consequence of the shifting of risk-on and risk-off assets.  

The movement to physical assets & rights to physical assets will not keep pace with the destruction of credit the lies in its wake.  

Jim in MN's picture

The problem is, the only economic activity they can actively stimulate is not only not helpful to Main Street/jobs/middle class/housing, but actively destructive as it is parasitical, immoral and demoralizing to the public at large.  Their 'friends' are the problem, not the solution.

the 300000000th percent's picture

He says " you have to watch what the fed is doing, not what they are saying" Yeah, some people call that lying, or deceiving.

Atomizer's picture

Just watch Bernanks body language today. You'll understand what he means.

Ookspay's picture

Ben's testimony will be like a hostage video. I hope Ron Paul rips this Fukker a new asshole!

PS: "Fight Club" is running on IFC this week, Awesome movie...

Cursive's picture


He's basically saying that the Fed has created a Pavlovian response among speculators.  The Fed's plan would never succeed if the majority of market participants weren't so willingly buying into the notion that the Fed can save the day.  The Fed can't, but a lot of speculators have made money off of the interventionist ATM.

Bicycle Repairman's picture

The FED has saved the day for some people:  speculators, stock market investors, TBTF institutions and government, for example.  These are rich and powerful people.  You can accuse the FED of being undemocratic, but the Bernanke isn't as stupid as some might think.

John Law Lives's picture

I haven't heard many people assert that The Bernank is "stupid".  I am sure he is reasonably intelligent.  However, I believe history will show that he made a number of terrible decisions.

Bicycle Repairman's picture

The aforementioned rich and powerful people will be writing the history.  The Bernanke will come out a hero.

otto skorzeny's picture

how can anyone invest is this "free" market is beyond me-it hasn't been unmanipulated since Alan Greenhebe took charge of the Fed

Manthong's picture

Last summer and fall it was tradable.

After Twist and LTROs, all of the fundamentals and technicals were thrown out the window.

If yesterday and today do not convince you that there is no "market" anymore, nothing will.

Bicycle Repairman's picture

Traders are now reduced to being "FED-watchers", just like the "Kremlin-watchers" in the good old USSR.

Coldfire's picture

With "Fedlinology" the new Kremlinology, as scientific as Lysenkoism.

BlandJoe24's picture

So, ZH, have a little fun place your bets/share your wisdom. 

What do you think will happen today to USD, Oil, Gold, TS, and S&P if this morning Bernake hints:

1. big QE coming very soon

2. some QE sometime soon

3. QE possible if needed sometime in future, as required, we'll act then, blah, blah...

4. no QE needed, economy/market working on it's own

BlandJoe24's picture

What do you think will be USD, Oil, Gold, TS, S&P reaction?

SilverTree's picture

They will all go up and then back down except for gold, it will go up and up and up and up and up.

Instant Wealth's picture

Up, down or sideways ... ummh ... probably.

BlandJoe24's picture

nice + 1

but is that really what you think? :-)

Bill D. Cat's picture

Should be 4 , but I'll go with 3 . He's going to dare a nice little crash .

Cursive's picture


The majority of the market participants will hear what he says as #3, but he definitely won't be that direct about it.

BlandJoe24's picture

What do you think will be USD, Oil, Gold, TS, S&P reaction?

Cursive's picture


Who knows with this corrupt casino?  If I had to guess, initial spike in all risk assets followed by selloff.  I feel very confident that all risk assets will be much lower by the end of year.

Bicycle Repairman's picture

I doubt Bernanke will commit to anything.  And when he begins QE 3, I think it would be an error to announce it.

SilverTree's picture

I agree but sooner-or-later they will have to give their apocalypse avoiding action a name...The Nothing.

Bicycle Repairman's picture

I doubt Bernanke will commit to anything.  And when he begins QE 3, I think it would be an error to announce it.

Winston of Oceania's picture

I heard yesterday that "bicycle repairman" is a green job... Really WTF!

Bicycle Repairman's picture

If you exclude the auto-generated methane, it is a green job.  And I get carbon credits based on my income minus a deduction for the aforementioned methane.

the 300000000th percent's picture

"To find out what any company is doing, you dont listen to the CEO", yeah because they are ALWAYS full of shit

Cursive's picture

To say that we've been doing well since 1776 is an afront to the ideals of liberty that the founding fathers espoused and fought, at great cost, to obtain.

Whoa Dammit's picture

I was just looking at my 10 year old car, and thinking back then, when I bought it, I had a future. Actually up until about 6 years ago, when things started to go really wiggy with the McMansion based economy I had a future. Every QE is another nail in my coffin and that of anyone who wants a decent job. 

the 300000000th percent's picture

"what if all this money printing created inflation????" wow what a concept.

BandGap's picture

Looming recession? Weaving a web of financial deceit and manipulation.

The problem is that if you "hope" this all stops, then you "hope" for a shitload of pain at the same time. No one sees the long term benefit over the short term pain.


SilverTree's picture

"it's just a little pinprick"

RyanW525's picture

That's the only think that's contracting with the "Money Honey"...take a look at her waist line recently!

Winston Churchill's picture

Obviously this Tyler is a history buff.

Love the reference to the centuries old naval blasphemy

uttered as the enemy fires its broadside at you.


Precious's picture

Why doesn't the windbag Buffett just shut the fuck up.


Bicycle Repairman's picture

He likes the flattery and attention he is getting.