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Grant Williams On The Simplicity Of Owning Gold

Tyler Durden's picture




 

As we enter a week in which the expectations are high for yet another large expansion of central bank balance sheets, and ever more extreme monetary policy (thanks to the LTRO 2), we thought it appropos to listen to Grant Williams, of the famous "Things That Make You Go Hhhhm" newsletter, explain in its simplest terms, why it is still a good time to own gold. In two excellent and succinct presentations, Williams discusses the 'simplicity' of investing through the last four decades but ends by focusing specifically on the rotation to Gold at the start of the last decade (2000) and why the reason for rotating out of the precious metal has not occurred yet. Seeing the world of Gold as a battle between Too Much and Not Enough (and drawing on global supply, demand, and holdings flow) Williams lays out the reasons for owning gold, and how to know when to cover - as he narrows the five reasons to reconsider Buffett-and-Roubini's Barbarous Relic down to one simple rule - Central Bank Monetary Policy Changes.

Simplicity 1 - An introduction to investing by Simplicitly over the past forty years and making one big decision through each decade - ending with a focus on the current position in Gold and Central bank largesse writ large...

 

Simplicity 2 - Williams expands specifically on Gold - with key insights on owndership, supply, demand shifts, demographics, and central bank behavior with a succinct summation of reasons to own and reasons to exit that should help many deal with the ebbs and flows.

 

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Sun, 02/26/2012 - 20:26 | 2199064 fightthepower
fightthepower's picture

But, but, you can't eat gold.

Sun, 02/26/2012 - 20:32 | 2199074 Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

Funny you say that ... two store fronts of cash for gold opened up where there used to be places to eat in my neighborhood within the last two weeks.

Sun, 02/26/2012 - 21:30 | 2199177 B-rock
B-rock's picture

In 1972, 1986 and 2012 a good new Ferrari is around 90 oz. of gold.

Sun, 02/26/2012 - 21:55 | 2199232 Michael
Michael's picture

I fear the nation needs 4 more years of Obama to get over that black president thing.

Mon, 02/27/2012 - 00:00 | 2199589 Pladizow
Pladizow's picture

Basically, Mike Maloney's Cycle Investing!

Mon, 02/27/2012 - 07:07 | 2199993 Crash N. Burn
Crash N. Burn's picture

 Exactly, calls it the "The Wealth Cycle Principle"

Mon, 02/27/2012 - 08:34 | 2200037 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

You're all a bunch of barbarians....I learned that from watching CNBC.

 

 

 

Mon, 02/27/2012 - 14:56 | 2201122 Thomas
Thomas's picture

Great presentation of once-per-decade decision making. I, BTW, buy gold from a local coin dealer. When gold was $457 an ounce and I was buying what he had, he said, "Don't you think this is a top?" I asked him how many buyers he had: "Just you." Quite the mania. He now has three buyers: me and two of my friends.

Mon, 02/27/2012 - 03:56 | 2199893 Michael
Michael's picture

Pun intended.

See thread post.

Sun, 02/26/2012 - 22:27 | 2199322 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

@ B-rock

+ 1

 

But, I'd rather have the 90 oz...

Mon, 02/27/2012 - 00:50 | 2199705 trav7777
trav7777's picture

ferraris don't hold their value like gold these days.

Paradoxically, when F got their cars out of the shit ditch after the 348 (in response to getting blowtorched by the japs with the NSX), their long term collectability went in the opposite direction.  The 355, modena, 430, and now italia are pretty brilliant cars, but really just commodities any longer.

Mon, 02/27/2012 - 08:11 | 2200040 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

60's era Mustangs are still gold.

 

 

 

Mon, 02/27/2012 - 16:00 | 2201408 SemperFord
SemperFord's picture

My fastback still is!!!

Fri, 05/25/2012 - 21:25 | 2199768 Al Gorerhythm
Al Gorerhythm's picture

You buy a depreciating, destructible, reproducible, high maintainence machine.... with gold?

Sun, 02/26/2012 - 22:48 | 2199386 vh070
vh070's picture

And one in my neighborhood mall.  I should've asked for a two-way price.

Sun, 02/26/2012 - 20:41 | 2199095 non_anon
non_anon's picture

but, But Bennyboy says it's just a tradition

Mon, 02/27/2012 - 07:23 | 2200002 nmewn
nmewn's picture

"The central banks of the US, Europe and Japan have increased their "assets"...and I use that term under advisement...by 32% in the last 17 months..." Grant Williams

lol...excellent point Grant.

Sun, 02/26/2012 - 20:46 | 2199103 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

Seriously, the latest argument from the MSM : you can't burn gold, but you can burn euros to keep you warm... that was their argument when they reported on eastern europe countries burning their money to keep warm in record cold a few weeks ago.

Sun, 02/26/2012 - 20:51 | 2199115 Dead Canary
Dead Canary's picture

Sure you can. I do it all the time. Just take the gold foil wrapper off and eat the yummy chocolate inside.

Sun, 02/26/2012 - 21:09 | 2199149 Chuck Walla
Chuck Walla's picture

And Uncle Warren says Gold is bad.

Sun, 02/26/2012 - 21:24 | 2199172 StormShadow
StormShadow's picture

Everyone has a crazy uncle in the family, including the Buffetts

Sun, 02/26/2012 - 21:55 | 2199231 WestVillageIdiot
WestVillageIdiot's picture

He's not crazy.  He's just a douche bag.

Sun, 02/26/2012 - 22:27 | 2199324 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

+ 1  Exactly right.

Mon, 02/27/2012 - 06:15 | 2199961 Quintus
Quintus's picture

Uncle Warren just bought himself a Precious Metals company last week.  Hypocrite much?

 

http://www.londonstockexchange.com/exchange/news/market-news/market-news...


Mon, 02/27/2012 - 08:13 | 2200041 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

He's just a gigolo.

 

 

 

Sun, 02/26/2012 - 21:35 | 2199189 Stackers
Stackers's picture

You cant eat Federal Reserve Notes either. Well I guess you could with enough ketchup

Sun, 02/26/2012 - 21:41 | 2199196 engineertheeconomy
engineertheeconomy's picture

in response to "fightthepower" - why would you want to eat your money?

are you too stupid to plant a garden?

Sun, 02/26/2012 - 22:19 | 2199299 fightthepower
fightthepower's picture

I thought people might get the sarcasm.

Sun, 02/26/2012 - 21:39 | 2199201 sabra1
sabra1's picture

melt it, and drink it!

Sun, 02/26/2012 - 21:58 | 2199238 WestVillageIdiot
WestVillageIdiot's picture

Yummy.  Nothing like a gold shake, especially since gold doesn't melt until it hits over 1,900 degrees.  Something tells me that you might have a little heartburn from that one. 

Sun, 02/26/2012 - 22:26 | 2199319 AU5K
AU5K's picture

actually, you can.  its called 'gold leaf' and occassionally, albeit more rarely these days, featured in high end restaurants.  now please stop posting your ignorant drivel on AU79.

Sun, 02/26/2012 - 23:31 | 2199517 StychoKiller
Mon, 02/27/2012 - 02:39 | 2199861 silvermaister
silvermaister's picture

retard

Sun, 02/26/2012 - 20:30 | 2199071 Pinch
Pinch's picture

I'm 50% in precious metals. I have one ton of silver, and almost more gold than I can carry. It's enough for one man. How about you?

Sun, 02/26/2012 - 20:40 | 2199082 tallen
tallen's picture

Nice, do you store it yourself or is it in a vault? I've got 22kg of silver, but I'm only a student so all I've got so far is from working hard on the side from my studies. (Got a couple of stocks poised to gain from a war with Iran too). 

Sun, 02/26/2012 - 20:50 | 2199114 non_anon
non_anon's picture

I'd recommend storing it yourself, in 2007 the Feds confiscated my silver from NORFED warehouse in ID. I've written to the AG and Judge with no reply and no return of my stolen property by the US Government!

Sun, 02/26/2012 - 20:48 | 2199101 mogul rider
mogul rider's picture

I bought my silver at 4-12 bucks over the last 30 years and inherited a shitload more - sold all my tradebale which is most of it at my target 49.10 (told everyone here too and got flamed). Bought it all back 8 weeks later for I think $26+/ (Don't remember exactly off the top of my head).

Will sell it again at $60-$70. Not sure what my target is yet. It;s amplitude is changing so work needs ot be done. Probably higher who the hell knows. I figure 100 flames on my silver comment shoudl be the next top this year. Then a 61% ass kicking smash.

Have 70 ounces of Gold which I never sell and will accumalate more of. You can buy milk with your silver, I'll buy towns thanks.

Silver is a trade nothing more. It's entirely gamed by banksters, traders, and all their evil twins.

 

How's that

Sun, 02/26/2012 - 22:11 | 2199269 eddiebe
eddiebe's picture

Wow, you must be really smart.

Mon, 02/27/2012 - 09:29 | 2200158 theMAXILOPEZpsycho
theMAXILOPEZpsycho's picture

No actually he's just a lier

Sun, 02/26/2012 - 22:21 | 2199304 oddjob
oddjob's picture

If crowing about magical trades makes you happy, you go girl.

Mon, 02/27/2012 - 00:57 | 2199721 trav7777
trav7777's picture

there were plenty of people who were top calling at 49.

Others were saying "$60 by next week" and even junking anyone who said to exercise caution.

Let history stand as the judge.

Mon, 02/27/2012 - 10:00 | 2200243 oddjob
oddjob's picture

Define 'top' please.

Sun, 02/26/2012 - 22:38 | 2199341 flacon
flacon's picture

To be fair to mogul rider, James Dines put in a sell when silver hit $49.... and if you don't know who James Dines is, he's a legend. 

Mon, 02/27/2012 - 02:10 | 2199838 Prometheus418
Prometheus418's picture

+1 for the amplitude catch.  Haven't heard it mentioned here yet.  My target is for $75-80 by the end of April.  All bets are off if things go off the rails before then, of course.

Not likely to sell silver in any case, as that is not what I'm doing with it- but it's fun to speculate anyway.  Also helps with the stomach-churning spot price drops.

Mon, 02/27/2012 - 02:45 | 2199865 silvermaister
silvermaister's picture

silver is more precious than gold you retard

 

Mon, 02/27/2012 - 09:28 | 2200157 theMAXILOPEZpsycho
theMAXILOPEZpsycho's picture

Mogul Rider is a big fat lier

I know because silver wasn't 26 bucks 8 weeks after the 49 top...more like 5 months

Get your facts in order before you come on here trying to make yourself feel better about your infirior dna

Sun, 02/26/2012 - 22:14 | 2199288 eddiebe
eddiebe's picture

 Wow, you must be really rich. Are you one of the 1%?

Mon, 02/27/2012 - 07:39 | 2200017 Silver Alert
Silver Alert's picture

Wasn't that a code used in Star Trek?

 

"Admiral, if we go by the book, like Lieutenant Saavik, ounces could seem like pounds."

 

Sun, 02/26/2012 - 20:35 | 2199081 Schmuck Raker
Schmuck Raker's picture

Four perfect trades over 40 years. Is that so much to ask?

[2 of them gold.]

Sun, 02/26/2012 - 20:36 | 2199084 mogul rider
mogul rider's picture

Oh great here's comes the annual pump and dump

 

Have you no shame?

After riding the stupids to 49.10 silver, selling out, then watching as most dopes around here rode it to 26 bucks you have the gall to do it to them again!!!

Better yet the stupids are willing to do it again.

OK stupids repeat after me - The gold/silver trade is gamed and I"m gonna sell the top this time. One more time............

Ok good. This may be your last chance to to sell. Remember every dickhead trader gamed you the last time. Try to be a seller this time.

 

The day traders have taken over this insurance trade and it is nothing more than a trade - remember that or you'll have your head handed back to you again.

 

 

Sun, 02/26/2012 - 20:51 | 2199118 jeffgroove102
jeffgroove102's picture

Hahaha. Honestly as an owner of pm's, I could really care less. I watch the tape a little but not much, altho I think last year selling at 48-49 was a no brainer. I personally see an increasingly unsafe world. One where pm's go to the moon, I am not sure is especially good. It means a whole lot of people will get trampled under foot.

And I hear it all the time, you can't eat gold, oooor, it is getting ready to go down, ooor just that how dare you stare, I could kill you with my guns type thing. Thus I do not really talk about it in my day to day life. However, if you do not wake the sheep from their slumber, they will gladly talk to you about american idol, professional sports and other nonsense that does not really make the world a better place except embolden those whom are already recieving a free lunch(the bankers).

So all that being said, PEOPLE NEED TO GET THEIR FRIGGIN MORAL COMPASS STRAIGHT AND GET WITH THE FRIGGIN PROGRAM. STOP SITTING AROUND LIKE THE WHINEY LITTLE SHEEP THAT THEY ARE AND TELL THOSE IN CHARGE, ENOUGH IS ENOUGH!

And you need to grow up and dismiss your "I'M SO COOL BECAUSE I'M APATHETIC KIND OF ATTITUDE"....lamer..

As a gen-xer myself, I see this attitude all the time and it is annoying.

Sun, 02/26/2012 - 21:01 | 2199138 dark pools of soros
dark pools of soros's picture

with how much people watch the price just have two piles..  one you trade with and the other you add to

 

but that's not cool since everyone here is always 30 times leveraged all-in one way or the other

Mon, 02/27/2012 - 04:38 | 2199923 fourchan
fourchan's picture

i knew you the value of your insight when i saw this" I could really care less." just stupid

Mon, 02/27/2012 - 17:01 | 2201598 akak
akak's picture

His comment was in fact far from valueless, but agreed, this idiotic and senseless use of the meaningless phrase "I COULD care less" is generally the mark of a weak mind.

For the last fucking time people, it is "I could NOT care less"!  I mean, dammit, just THINK about what you are saying --- if you COULD care less, then you are saying that you DO care!

Mon, 02/27/2012 - 00:11 | 2199616 SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

So you're analysis of the huge Chinese market for Silver and Gold, which is entirely one way; is that it represents some kind of trading? How interesting.

Mon, 02/27/2012 - 01:19 | 2199767 malek
malek's picture

Now you only need to find a crystal ball to tell you when the top is reached!
Why didn't I think of that before? Oh, how simple life can be...

Sun, 02/26/2012 - 20:45 | 2199099 knukles
knukles's picture

Ok, Ok, Ok...
Lemme make peace between all the waring factions.
Gold is a barbarous relic.
It's just some people like antiques.

 

Why does my lawyer keep sending me emails saying he's throwing me under the bus?

Mon, 02/27/2012 - 00:13 | 2199626 SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

Because he's the world's only honest lawyer? Seriously, I'd just like to say; one more time; Silver is a better savings account. a.) it will appreciate more in buying power b.) it doesn't attract the un-wanted attention of the "powers" the way gold does. Something to think about.

Mon, 02/27/2012 - 09:32 | 2200165 trav7777
trav7777's picture

this is idiotic...silver is nowhere near as value dense as gold

Sun, 02/26/2012 - 21:00 | 2199129 DosZap
DosZap's picture

Well their sitting on Au tonight,everytime it spikes, (cant have that $1800.00 yet pond scum!)it gets nailed back down.Silver is crawling slowly to the Magic $36.00.........IF it doesn't get slammed again, next stop $42.00.

Sun, 02/26/2012 - 21:10 | 2199145 HungrySeagull
HungrySeagull's picture

I have a pile to trade and a small pile to keep.

Eventually Gold will enter the picture but not much. I am one of those who got out at the high 40's before the big drop and bought back in.

It's easy to trade slowly a few times a year instead of trying to follow the minute charts like a Rhesus monkey.

However... the higher we go, the closer to the 50 dollar sun burn... feathers will start to fall and the charts will become very important because I've seen 7+ dollar swings in 2 minutes.

You snooze you lose.

Having said that, I am just a minnow in a great ocean filled with whales. It's kinda pathetic really... One piece of gold and a stack of silver over there.

This year the war will be fought and won/lost at the 50.00 price of silver.

It's a no brainer. Like taking candy from a baby.

Sun, 02/26/2012 - 22:35 | 2199332 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

I have separate piles of gold, silver and platinum.

Silver is for a SHTF scenario, I would spend it as money.

The others I will not sell.  My gold and platinum are going to my kid, and if she winds up with children, than to all of them.

Mon, 02/27/2012 - 02:29 | 2199852 Prometheus418
Prometheus418's picture

DoChen-

I already spend it as money.  That's what I'm doing with the stuff- establishing a market so that we have some of the kinks worked out in my area when it has to be money again.  I've got a "savings account," sure- but as much as possible, I use my silver to buy guns, food, and other necessities.  It's really taking hold at the gun shows, and is starting to catch on with some of the local farms- I'm trying to establish the going rate for a dozen eggs or a gallon of milk at one mercury dime, regardless of spot price.

The first transaction or two is hard- but after that, they don't want the paper dollars any more.  the important thing, to me, is to establish price stability unrelated to spot price- I'd advise anyone buying silver to do the same.  The reality is that you will only get rich with silver if you start a bullion bank, or have a ton of it, and use it as collateral for a productive enterprise.  For the time being, the stuff is very easy to get, and I can always buy more, so using it as the money it's always been is a no-brainer.

One of the fun things to do is to carry a plastic tube full of Mercury dimes, and 8 tighly rolled twenties.  The next time someone claims that coins are too bulky, show them how 50 dimes are the same size as those eight twenties, with roughly the same nominal value (retail- not wholesale, as I know someone is going to moan about how you can get them cheaper than that at "x" or "y" place.)

Sun, 02/26/2012 - 21:10 | 2199150 Bansters-in-my-...
Bansters-in-my- feces's picture

Why do Central Banks lease gold for negative -.246 % for one month?

Who can lease this gold at these negative rates ?

And where do I get in on the action?

KITCO Showed LEASE RATES FOR AS LOW AS NEGATIVE 8%. in feb and now there chart of the 6 month history does not show this big negative dip anymore.

It has been vaporized into the history bin

Jon...Where is the dip that happened in the lease rates?

You disappeared it......

Sun, 02/26/2012 - 21:11 | 2199154 SILVERGEDDON
SILVERGEDDON's picture

I have two piles of stuff - one, is shit. One, is silver. Guess which one I am willing to dump ? How the fuck else will I be able to buy $20.00 per gallon gas in 20 years thanks to the anti inflation powers of the almighty US dollar ?  LMFAOL, troll motherfuckers !

Sun, 02/26/2012 - 21:38 | 2199193 Chimerican
Chimerican's picture

Excrement can be converted to fuel and has been used as such for as long as man has been excreting waste. When I was growing up, there was an old man in my neighborhood in Jinan who powered his old Datsun with waste he collected from honey pots.

Sun, 02/26/2012 - 23:53 | 2199571 aphlaque_duck
aphlaque_duck's picture

There is no way in hell gas will be that cheap in 20 years.

Although you might still get it for a (silver) dime a gallon.

Mon, 02/27/2012 - 00:21 | 2199644 SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

Agree; or if not, a quarter.

Sun, 02/26/2012 - 21:12 | 2199155 Bansters-in-my-...
Bansters-in-my- feces's picture

Bankers say your gold is like corn,But their gold is monetary gold.

Kid you fucking Not....

Delusional fuckTards.

Sun, 02/26/2012 - 21:22 | 2199171 devo
devo's picture

I disagree that Central Bank monitery policy changes are a reason to sell gold. It would depend on why they changed policy. If they due to high/hyperinflation, then holding gold would be wise. I think a better indicator is the Dow/Gold ratio and gauging Joe Sickpack's sentiment. Right now he's just waking up to gold, so there's a lot of upside. Once Joe Sickpack dreams of gold, that's a good time to sell. I don't see CB's selling any time soon since they're all accumulating.

 

Sun, 02/26/2012 - 21:24 | 2199173 tradewithdave
tradewithdave's picture

There's gold and then there's vector gold. Best to know the difference.

www.tradewithdave.com

Mon, 02/27/2012 - 17:38 | 2201753 VekTor
VekTor's picture

Hey now, I resemble that remark!

Sun, 02/26/2012 - 21:32 | 2199184 monopoly
monopoly's picture

I like simple. And this is spot on. Never touch physical, so pump and dump all you want. Like to trade miners some but core is core.

Sun, 02/26/2012 - 22:37 | 2199338 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

+ 1

I don't sell my gold either.  I buy when money comes in, and never sell.

Sun, 02/26/2012 - 21:44 | 2199207 Gold Dog
Gold Dog's picture

I just dollar cost average.....every week when I get paid I buy 40oz of gold and a couple of monster boxes of silver.

 

Dog

Sun, 02/26/2012 - 21:50 | 2199219 Chimerican
Chimerican's picture

You dog you. Where you work?

Sun, 02/26/2012 - 21:54 | 2199228 Rogier
Rogier's picture

Averaging, really? What planet do you come from? That undiscovered one called 'Stupid'?

Sun, 02/26/2012 - 22:37 | 2199337 BidnessMan
BidnessMan's picture

Really ?  40 oz x $1,750 = $70K, plus 2 x 500 oz of silver x $35 = $35K.  So $105K a week?  You must be joking or a .1%'er.    

Mon, 02/27/2012 - 01:21 | 2199772 malek
malek's picture

I really think you're a little on the stingy side with that

Mon, 02/27/2012 - 09:08 | 2200114 Gold Dog
Gold Dog's picture

It makes my heart soar like a hawk to see that some of you got it!

The intelligence level around here seems to be off a little!

Dog

Sun, 02/26/2012 - 21:53 | 2199224 engineertheeconomy
engineertheeconomy's picture

GOLD - never been a better time to buy

SILVER - lookin good too, buy

PLATINUM - buy

PALLADIUM - buy

RHODIUM - buy

PAPER/ASSETS PRICED IN PAPER = SELL SELL SELL

Sun, 02/26/2012 - 22:38 | 2199340 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

+ 1

But, please tell us where you can buy Rhodium!

Mon, 02/27/2012 - 00:57 | 2199722 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

+ 1

Thanks!

Mon, 02/27/2012 - 02:35 | 2199857 Prometheus418
Prometheus418's picture

But, please tell us where you can buy Rhodium!

That's the wrong question.  Where can you sell Rhodium is more important, if you ask me.  

Sun, 02/26/2012 - 22:08 | 2199266 eddiebe
eddiebe's picture

If gold is not worth anything why are central banks hoarding it?

Sun, 02/26/2012 - 22:39 | 2199347 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

+ 1

Same reason I am hoarding it...

Sun, 02/26/2012 - 22:14 | 2199277 FranSix
FranSix's picture

I can see the change coming in negative nominal interest rates, where banks can write off negative interest rates as a tax loss.  But in order to ensure that your currency doesn't collapse, you would need to fix the price of gold in currency.

Of course, deflation would have been accepted by central planners as self evident.

That would be the big change.

Sun, 02/26/2012 - 22:12 | 2199279 laosuwan
laosuwan's picture

independent "financial advisors" with English accents, in Singapore...

 

Hold on to your wallets and run, run run

Sun, 02/26/2012 - 22:24 | 2199315 Libertarian777
Libertarian777's picture

aaaah... the power of hindsight.

If only all fund managers could run a 20/20 hindsight fund.

Sun, 02/26/2012 - 22:27 | 2199323 boeing747
boeing747's picture

Below show from 1997 to now, how much value US dollar has lost:

Against Euro lost 7%

            Chinese Yuan 24%

             Japan Yen 34%

             CanadaDollar 27%

             AusDollar 24%

             NZ-Dollar 10%

Against   Silver lost 86%

             Gold lost  79%

 

Sun, 02/26/2012 - 22:44 | 2199365 lasvegaspersona
lasvegaspersona's picture

don't forget "gold is not backed by ANYTHING" Treasureis are backed by the FULL faith and credit of the USG...so there...buy at your own risk

Mon, 02/27/2012 - 00:18 | 2199635 SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

Gold is backed by the full faith and credit of the human race; which is slowly but surely leaving its allegiance to the FRN, behind. And that's a fact.

Sun, 02/26/2012 - 22:47 | 2199380 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

we've all had our daze in the sun

now. for the mud!  [and i hope it's not MAD]

deeee-fence!

Sun, 02/26/2012 - 22:56 | 2199411 DavosSherman
DavosSherman's picture

Grant is fucking incredible.  I thought he blew it in the second video when he went over India's holding.  Then at the 11:37 minute point of video #2 he effing nailed it to the wall.  My hat is off in awe!

Sun, 02/26/2012 - 23:19 | 2199473 ultimate warrior
ultimate warrior's picture

Will gold hit $1500ish this year? I want to get a good deal on some gold maples.

UP if you think we hit $1500ish this year

DOWN if you think we don't get close

Mon, 02/27/2012 - 01:26 | 2199777 weyes1
weyes1's picture

Every day is a good day to buy gold maples. You don't need to wait for the price to drop. Buying gold maples at today's prices is an incredible bargain. 

Sun, 02/26/2012 - 23:25 | 2199487 Rogier
Rogier's picture

Indian households owning 18,000 tons of gold, really? Where does that number come from? All I'm able to calculate is 500mn poor women piercing their noses with 2 gram of gold each, bringing the Indian total to a mere of 1 ton of pierced gold...

 

Mon, 02/27/2012 - 01:25 | 2199775 malek
malek's picture

I'm sure your disbelief is a lot more credible than Grant Williams sources

Mon, 02/27/2012 - 00:41 | 2199689 SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

It's a wonderful analysis. Very rational. I can't find any fault with it. I went to the YouTube address and bookmarked it so I can send to people later. Just repeating; once again; silver will rise in purchasing power alongside or ahead of gold and it avoids at least the primary, laser like, focus of broke governments and their currency machines.

Mon, 02/27/2012 - 01:37 | 2199801 vh070
vh070's picture

+1 for the case for Gold

-2 for the 40-year Simplicity concept.  It's simply way too easy to do that in hindsight.  It's all but impossible for the ordinary investor to do at any point in time.  I'd bet that not one investor could get it that right, and any who were close probably rode one or two of those trends — by luck.  Not to mention, get out before those positions had severe corrections.

Mon, 02/27/2012 - 06:57 | 2199985 The Swedish Chef
The Swedish Chef's picture

Yeah, backtrading is easy, innit?

 

And in the second video, the four first reasons to own gold (expanding money supply, CB balance sheets, "the race to debase" et c.) are kinda the same thing, aren´t they?

 

But thanks for reassuring me in my decision to own gold. Wish I bought more back when I did.

Mon, 02/27/2012 - 01:52 | 2199819 mimiss
mimiss's picture

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Mon, 02/27/2012 - 02:02 | 2199828 pupton
pupton's picture

How did this fucker get through???? Tyler please turn this guy into compost!

Mon, 02/27/2012 - 02:34 | 2199854 honestann
honestann's picture

Excellent presentation.

However...

On the one hand, he doesn't arbitrarily choose the blowoff top of each bull market to make the most extreme possible case.  Doing so would be too contrived and optimistic to be anywhere near realistic.

On the other hand, there is a real question whether the following notion has merit: "large numbers of people change their attitudes when new decades arrive, and therefore trends do in fact tend to end and begin near decade boundaries".  A slightly separate question is whether bull markets do in fact tend to take about 10 years, because that's how long it takes to completely inflate any financial or psychology driven phenomenon.  This later idea seems more likely true.

These are important questions.  It would be highly informative to perform the same process on random years, but keep the 10 year timeframe.  Clearly if we perform this test on the past 40 years, the decade markers clearly seem like the very best performers.  However, what happens if we perform the same tests on the past 80 or 100 years instead?  I'd like to see that.  On the other hand, it is entirely possible that modern "short term thinking" and/or "internet timeframe" has modified the behavior of markets AND psychology too substantially versus previous decades.  I suspect not (figuring the more fundamental aspects of human psychology are more dominant), but I certainly don't know so.

Nonetheless, great presentation.

PS:  A great complement would be to create the exact same presentation in terms of "constant value" (as measured by an honest basket of the most basic real, physical goods).  THAT would add great clarity to this whole analysis.

Mon, 02/27/2012 - 06:01 | 2199955 The Navigator
The Navigator's picture

 

The Simplicity Of Owning Gold

Simple - buy it, own it, it's real money AND because no metalurgist can reproduce it, it cannot be deflated away like a Federal Reserve Note Helicopter Pilot. Fuck You Ben.

AND if you come for the real stuff, I'll give you a Greshams Law cheaper metal instead, lead.

If it ain't obvious, I'm tired of being fucked with. The gold card is gold coins in your safe, your cat box, your irrigation pipes, or your pocket. FUCK YOU BEN.

 

Mon, 02/27/2012 - 07:10 | 2199996 savagegoose
savagegoose's picture

well you gotta pay tax on the capital gains, inflations a bitch.

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