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Grantham's Latest: "The S&P Is Worth No More Than 950"

Tyler Durden's picture


Back in May, when the market was once again trading purely on hopium and everyone's head was in the sand of denial, (or worse), Jeremy Grantham released his second quarter letter which was so bearish, it literally moved the market lower briefly (at which point visions of Ben Bernanke pushing CTRL-P repeatedly restored the levitation). Anyone who took his advice then, about 15% higher, to get out, has saved substantial capital: "whether [the market] will reach 1500 or not, the environment has simply become too risky to justify prudent investors hanging around, hoping to get lucky. So now is not the time to float along with the Fed, but to fight it." Well, to anyone hoping that the latest letter from the GMO manager has anything more optimistic after an epic rout in the past week, we have bad news: "as for global equities, they range from unattractive (August 2) to very unattractive. The S&P 500, for example, is worth no more than 950 on our estimates. In general, risk avoidance looks like a good idea. Cash – despite its manipulated low rate, deliberately designed to make us reach for risk – should be seen as a safe haven replete with important optionality: dry powder to take advantage of possible opportunities." Grantham adds that it is recommended to "keep your head down" for the last two months of a President's third year, and to also "keep it down for the foreseeable future."He adds that GMO is modestly underweight equities in asset-allocation    accounts, partly due to "desperately unattractive" yields on fixed income. As for those who pray to the altar of St. Ben, he says that "the main long-term risk is that after two massive bubbles and two equally massive resurrection programs, the Fed may be out of ammunition. Should more building blocks fall (government bond downgrade and further market declines have missed my deadline) and a serious global double-dip develop, then the pattern of market behavior this time may be more historically typical." In other words, and in keeping with his previous letter, the time to continue fighting the Fed is now more than ever.

His summary recommendations on what to do:

What to Buy?

  • For those with a long horizon, I am sure well-managed forestry and farmland will outperform the average of all global assets.
  • I think it is likely that resources in the ground, hydrocarbons, metals, and fertilizer will also win on a 10-year horizon. I am not certain, though, because of the remarkable gains in so many of these in the last fi ve years. I would put the odds at 2 to 1. As mentioned last quarter, many commodities have the potential for very sharp declines in the short term. If that occurs, then the odds would, of course, rise.
  • On a regular time horizon, I would continue to overweight quality stocks, which may well be on a roll. They are not priced to make a fortune, but they are priced to give approximately 4.5% to 5% real return, which I think is acceptable for low-risk assets. They have also delivered dependable downside – risk off – relative performance for several years, which is a characteristic generally in short supply.
  • Emerging markets are hard to evaluate because they are clearly going through many phases of development in a real hurry. So what is normal profi tability? Probably not the old levels. They are moving toward developed status and probably toward our developed world’s level of profi tability. (Yes, James Montier, that would be a change and, therefore, I admit, far from certain.) In a global fi nancial crisis it is also important to remember that their cumulative foreign reserves are remarkable, twice that of the developed countries. But, all things considered, I believe they will outperform other non-high-quality equities for the next seven years and are likely to produce a semi-respectable return for a risky group of about 4% to 5% a year real.
  • We at GMO also believe that Japan is likely to “regress,” in the mathematical sense, toward levels of profi tability that would be considered normal in other developed countries. We expect the progress to be very slow and uneven. If it does not happen at all, then Japanese stocks are priced like the average of all other developed equities, or a bit cheaper. If, however, by some chance margins improve quite fast, then Japanese stocks will likely be the best performing stocks around and could hit double-digit real returns for seven years. Japan’s remarkable resilience in the face of electricity shortages gives some inkling of what they are capable of. How quickly we have forgotten their obvious talents of 20 years ago. Can all of those talents really be lost forever?
  • As for the rest of global equities, they range from unattractive (August 2) to very unattractive. The S&P 500, for example, is worth no more than 950 on our estimates.
  • In general, risk avoidance looks like a good idea. Cash – despite its manipulated low rate, deliberately designed to make us reach for risk – should be seen as a safe haven replete with important optionality: dry powder to take advantage of possible opportunities.
  • As mentioned in previous quarterlies, the main long-term risk is that after two massive bubbles and two equally massive resurrection programs, the Fed may be out of ammunition. Should more building blocks fall (government bond downgrade and further market declines have missed my deadline) and a serious global double-dip develop, then the pattern of market behavior this time may be more historically typical. That is, instead of quickly recovering, markets will become cheap and stay below long-term averages for several years as was the case pre-Greenspan. Twenty years is a long time, so most investors think that dipping to fair value for a minute and bouncing is normal. It is, in fact, highly aberrant historically. Markets staying down and washing away a whole generation’s false expectations, high animal spirits, and excessive risk-taking – that would be normal. In the long run, a prolonged period of lower priced assets would lead to a much-improved, less risky, and less bubble-prone environment. In short, a more manageable world. It would also mean much higher returns from investing at lower prices. Long-term benefi ts from short-term pain. Just the kind of trade-off that the children in charge now would never make deliberately. But it may well happen anyway.

Full report:

Grantham August


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Wed, 08/10/2011 - 08:19 | 1545649 Sathington Willougby
Sathington Willougby's picture


Is the Federal Reserve buying ES or equities ???

Wed, 08/10/2011 - 08:23 | 1545660 cossack55
cossack55's picture

Rephrase the question.

"Has the Fed stopped buying ES or equitites yet?"

Wed, 08/10/2011 - 19:59 | 1549158 Sathington Willougby
Sathington Willougby's picture


I thought there was an inquiry, possibly by the good doctor, where the Bernanke said something like "blah blah blah can't rule out buying the shit out of spiders" or something of that Phd nature.

Anyhow I have this disagreement with someone who believes I don't KWTFITA since the fed OMO is through treasuries.  Trying to dig up evidence of PPT with other instruments. 

Wed, 08/10/2011 - 10:06 | 1546081 Chartsky
Chartsky's picture

Nothing but computer algorithms trading the ES any more.

Every single electronic market has lost WELL over 1/2 volume and is ruined for now.

Wed, 08/10/2011 - 08:19 | 1545651 Stumpy
Stumpy's picture

Off topic but still...

Questrade sent me a message saying they are sorry that their system didn't worked yesterday. Electrical problems....

And this morning, trying to trade in the Pre-Market:

ECN communications problems (line down)

Wed, 08/10/2011 - 08:21 | 1545654 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

I think He is being generous at 950. Take off another 300 pints from that number and that gets us to about where we should be.

Wed, 08/10/2011 - 08:27 | 1545669 jekyll island
jekyll island's picture


Wed, 08/10/2011 - 08:48 | 1545708 Re-Discovery
Re-Discovery's picture

+ < 600

Wed, 08/10/2011 - 08:59 | 1545737 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

Well, James Altucher "sticks with his Dow 20k call".

Wed, 08/10/2011 - 09:34 | 1545906 vast-dom
vast-dom's picture


Wed, 08/10/2011 - 08:22 | 1545657 cossack55
cossack55's picture

Mr. G needs to beware being placed on the DHS Terrorist Watch List.  I hope he doesn't fly much or enjoys fondling and body-cavity searches.

Wed, 08/10/2011 - 08:23 | 1545663 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

"In the long run, a prolonged period of lower priced assets would lead to a much-improved, less risky, and less bubble-prone environment. In short, a more manageable world. ... Just the kind of trade-off that the children in charge now would never make deliberately."

Go into cash and wait for the crash?  He honestly thinks that we are not going to enter yet another bubble in 2012? 

Wed, 08/10/2011 - 08:31 | 1545675 cossack55
cossack55's picture

Don't we have to get the hell out this bubble first.  Way too many freakin' bubbles.  How big is the bloody wand and is ii space-based?

Wed, 08/10/2011 - 08:26 | 1545666 jekyll island
jekyll island's picture

We are witnessing the unwinding of the debt trap that began over 40 years ago and was accelerated by Greenspan bailing out the stoock market in 1987.   Government and Federal Reserve prefer to see increasing asset values, if your assets are increasing in value then you are worth more, right?  Unfortunately the increase in prices was driven by increasing debt, which became too much to control and the market is trying to correct to a more stable value.  SP 950 is too conservative, it could go as low as 500 if the Fed ends QE.  Stock market needs this money creation to drive asset values higher.  Gold at $5,000?   Probably not, hate to say it but it will go much higher than that. 



Wed, 08/10/2011 - 08:32 | 1545677 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Never heard of a stoock market. What can I buy there?


By the way I agree with your comment.

Wed, 08/10/2011 - 10:34 | 1546218 jekyll island
jekyll island's picture

It's a fantasy land kept alive by old white guys on Wall Street and the Gov't, plus that Obama dude.  I would stay away from it if I were you.  

Wed, 08/10/2011 - 08:31 | 1545678 hungarianboy
hungarianboy's picture

Hungarian Market big red again. When will this stop?

OTP bank -3.5%. While it was the third best bank in whole Europe with the latsest stress test....

Wed, 08/10/2011 - 08:32 | 1545680 Sean7k
Sean7k's picture

A little too Keynsian for my taste. General growth estimates of 4-5%, depending on which asset class you choose? In an environment of 5-8% inflation? 

It might be time to leave the markets altogether and start making money the old fashioned way- exchange through trade. Finding the products people want and selling them. Not quite ready to buy a wagon and oxen to tour the country, but something more modern may be a better way to create income and minimize taxes.

The way out of this mess will not be through regular channels. A new paradigm is required and strict adherence to the banker/corporate law structure may need to be mitigated.

Wed, 08/10/2011 - 08:41 | 1545693 Snidley Whipsnae
Snidley Whipsnae's picture

Try some of your local swap meets and flea markets. You might be surprised how many FRNs are changing hands. Of course all those sales are being reported and taxes are being paid... or maybe not?


Wed, 08/10/2011 - 08:38 | 1545688 MiningJunkie
MiningJunkie's picture

Santelli just dissed Meredith Whitney bigtime! Buy gold and silver stocks and avoid the physical over the balance of 2011 and you will sail to riches.

Wed, 08/10/2011 - 08:43 | 1545697 mendigo
mendigo's picture

why are stocks better than physical

Wed, 08/10/2011 - 08:44 | 1545701 Snidley Whipsnae
Snidley Whipsnae's picture

Care to provide a link? When I saw your screen name and factored in your 'Santelli quote' it set off my bull shit detector...

Wed, 08/10/2011 - 08:39 | 1545691 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

Too bullish.

Wed, 08/10/2011 - 08:41 | 1545694 tiger7905
tiger7905's picture

Fully agree with the $5000+ gold call.
Kingworldnews London trader see's $50/oz daily gold swings as the normal.

Wed, 08/10/2011 - 08:49 | 1545713 Re-Discovery
Re-Discovery's picture

Swings?  Socket wrench moves more like it.

Wed, 08/10/2011 - 09:19 | 1545820 tarsubil
tarsubil's picture

Right at this moment, it looks like gold is breaking higher when it is at 1770. My eyes are bugging out of my head. If only I had cash at 1500 a couple weeks ago.

Wed, 08/10/2011 - 08:43 | 1545695 michigan independant
michigan independant's picture

Thank you for posting this. He is a true compass and I was thinking about him.

Wed, 08/10/2011 - 08:58 | 1545733 Snidley Whipsnae
Snidley Whipsnae's picture

He has posted nothing! I did a google search and can find no comments made today or yesterday re: 'Santelli Whitney' OR, and comments that Santelli made re: 'buy gold stocks not physical'.

Until he/she posts a link it's in the bs bin...

Wed, 08/10/2011 - 08:43 | 1545698 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

Everybody know that stocks aren't priced according to their value and return!!

Stocks are valued against money in circulation.




I should write Obama's speeches... I'll give him a tweet.

Wed, 08/10/2011 - 08:48 | 1545703 Arch Duke Ferdinand
Arch Duke Ferdinand's picture


*****Moodys Warns Student Loans May Be the Next Financial Bubble.

10/20 million American Students Should Starve the US Government from its Taxes.
Can 10/20 million American students be jailed?.....

*****Eight Reasons Young Americans Don't Fight Back: How the US Crushed Youth Resistance

10/20 million American Students Should Starve the US Government from its Taxes.
Can 10/20 million American students be jailed?.....

*****OT: The Creek Short video ...makes one think outside the box.....

Wed, 08/10/2011 - 08:48 | 1545704 snowball777
snowball777's picture

Liquidity preference, bitchez. As for his recommendations, right assets...wrong time.

Wed, 08/10/2011 - 08:47 | 1545707 ZippyDooDah
ZippyDooDah's picture

Yeah, give that twit a tweet!  And one for me while you're at it!

Wed, 08/10/2011 - 08:50 | 1545711 lieutenantjohnchard
lieutenantjohnchard's picture

as mentioned before i tip my hat to those investors willing to go home long over the weekend with equities. true you got a nice bump yesterday. but you got beaten up very badly monday, and had to suffer through the after hours trade monday night which ought to have been quite disconcerting. i'm with grantham on this one. it's too risky at this point in time.

Wed, 08/10/2011 - 08:49 | 1545715 Johnny Lawrence
Johnny Lawrence's picture

S&P will hit a new low at some point, in my view.  So that's below 666.  That's not because I think that's fair value (that would be well below fair value), but history shows that.  Great Depression and Japan all established new lows after their initial crash and reflex rally, and if you study P/E10, you'll see that the market often corrects to single digit multiples after hitting these levels of overvaluation.  I'll be backing up the truck at that point.

Wed, 08/10/2011 - 08:51 | 1545718 mendigo
mendigo's picture

speaking as one who knows or understands little:

it seems there has been a decoupling of the fate of multinational corporations and nations - which may be healthy for global economic stabilty if not national

we may soon see a shift in the balance of power from the sovereign nations to sovereign conglomerates - the conglomerates can benefit from the incompetence of the governments but are not bound to them or their fiscal policies

owning a mutinational with deep pockets is potentially equal or better to hedge fund

Wed, 08/10/2011 - 09:41 | 1545939 ReactionToClose...
ReactionToClosedMinds's picture

pleaee .. no disrespect intended ... but you miss some fundamental points (not to lecture either).

The world as we know it was fundamentally shaped by the cataclysm known as WW2.  US, which already was a trending superpower, survived relatively unscathed compared to much of world econ hvyweights.  WW2 was a much closer call than anyone now remembers and USA/West was very lucky ... except for the typical self-destructive human stupidity of Axis, etc... capitalism as anyone knew or cared was almost kaput because it simple-mindedly got tossed in idiotically with colonialism/mercantilism when it has nothing to do with either, etc,

Bolsheviks had world sentiment & simpleminded anti-colonialists/intellectuals on their side but not econ logic (based on Adam Smith's invisible hand) ... so forced USofA and Europe/NoAsia to stay focused ('containment') .... which then led as Reagan foresaw as former labor party head (Screen Guild Prez) but so many 'smarties' ridiculed to it's eventual unsustainable collapse.  This collapse threw an unprecedented  30-40% of global humanity into a labor market free-for-all as their national econ models & economies totally collapsed.  Commodities had been contained by Volker & Reagan-Thathcer as commies' commodities also collapsed and demand globally shrunk from this collapse. [will  ignore the PRChina opening/change which was strategic between USA, Russia and China but CHina opening has led to some of problems today obviously))

But to go back to ww2 and postWar Cold War .... World became dependent on USA as world protector/policeman (our military strategy has a few potentially fatal achilles heels ..... one e.g., we are heavily dependent on all tactical levels on air superiority/supremacy....... PRChina and Russians know this very well from 50+ years of proxy wars ... take this away from us and we become much less formidable very quickly as we cannot tolerate casualty levels like they can,etc.)   We had generally most effective military to keep trade open/flowing/protected and WEurope & NoAsia used US$ and supported Treasuries.  But with post-Cold War 'end of history' moment now fading, Keynsian idiocy, and US economy interests controlled by Wall Street versus Main Street .... and 'allies' getting increasingly pulled away from mutal self-interest by legitimate national/regional issues  ..... this 'structure' no longer works adequately.

..... the entire post-WW2 paradigm everyone assumes is there is about to collapse/change ... to what though? 

The world is dependent on a seriously flawed global capital markets model, which worked fine for 50+ years,  with the US$ as the reserve currency centerpoint and no other legitimate replacement on the horizon.  This translates into hidden support for Treasureis as safe-havens ( think: the US$ is the only large currency that can legitimately defend itself and it's allies ... no one else can .. that is why it is still a safe-haven).  But PRChina our largest creditor, or close thereto, holds our Treasuries for purely mercantile reasons, not survivial/strategic like our allies.

So we have a real gloabl markets conundrum which is a recipe for severe instability along with many other built up imbalances,  Marc Faber, maybe for slightly different reasons than the above take, sees the coming or onset of instability as well ... but his view and preceding can be rationally reconciled with disagreement maybe on the margins.  

So with the preceding in mind, any 'western' styled large corporate management team that does not see this risk,  that they have 'freedom' of operation & flexibility solely because of the post-WW2 structures (UN, IMF, World Bank, etc. ...all way out of their initial functional role as first dessigned due to their bureacracies getting full of themselves and trying to ensure an elitist role at the power table falsely) which are fading fast which also includes military defense, is totally deluding themselves.  Which is why GE's decision to shut down GE Medical Imaging in USA and shift it to PRCHina in seach of 'demographics' and market is incredibly stupid 

That is why it is a total fool's game for any corporate entity to think the world has evolved to that level you suggest.... human reality is that this is dangerously delusional globalist thinking. 




Wed, 08/10/2011 - 08:54 | 1545724 spanish inquisition
spanish inquisition's picture

Time to "Starve The Beast". Those unemployed are already doing their part, but there is more the rest can do. Buy necessities bulk, online and used. Pack lunches and stop eating out. Combine trips to eliminate gas fill ups, have high schoolers take the bus. Cut out movies, bowling and other entertainment (OK to have a treat night). Barter for services if you can. The middle class is funding the war against the middle class for the benefit of the Wall Street and our wars of "liberation".  I figure a month to start will get their attention....

Wed, 08/10/2011 - 10:22 | 1546159 tamboo
tamboo's picture

you forgot close all bank accounts, max out credit cards

to buy metals, goad collectors into breaking law = profit.

and cancel the fookin satanic cable, stop paying to watch commercials.


Wed, 08/10/2011 - 08:55 | 1545727 ReactionToClose...
ReactionToClosedMinds's picture

no that anyone cares .. but I find Grantham to be a tad full of himself & doctrinairre.

His last missive on 'commodities', while maybe fundamentally correct at it's analytical core 'long-term',  Grantham could not help himself to opine on everything under the sun from his personal 'elite' perspective as a financial services giant wannabe (like he wanted some of Bill Gross's sunshine).   If you would have followed Grantham's immediate thesis then, you would have gotten slaughtered as commodities overall were just rolling over.  And Alan Abelson at Barron's bought Grantham hook, line & sinker ... so use your reality induced judgment ....  understand the analytics of Grantham but figure his timing and Bollinger bands are probably self-infatuatedly off.

Wed, 08/10/2011 - 09:00 | 1545739 Johnny Lawrence
Johnny Lawrence's picture

I agree.  I respect Grantham's opinions, but his writing style reads like a Shakespearean novel sometimes.

Wed, 08/10/2011 - 08:59 | 1545736 holdbuysell
holdbuysell's picture

Slightly O/T question for all:

Grantham discusses the high cash levels of corporations (and still not hiring). The question: if currencies are going to zero, what will corporations do to preserve that cash? Massive M&A? Other?

It'd be interesting to see Gold as a line item on the balance sheet.

Wed, 08/10/2011 - 09:06 | 1545759 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

The best thing for goldbugs to do would be to have Gentleman Jim send Steve Jobs a prospectus on the future for gold. 

Wed, 08/10/2011 - 09:09 | 1545766 snowball777
snowball777's picture

Zero percent down and no payments for 2 years! ;)

Wed, 08/10/2011 - 09:01 | 1545744 bigdumbnugly
bigdumbnugly's picture

9 AM EDT.  must be time to whack the silver market.

Wed, 08/10/2011 - 09:06 | 1545757 shushup
shushup's picture

Really! So where's he been for the last year? The market was worth so much more then? Bullshit!

Wed, 08/10/2011 - 09:06 | 1545760 HCSKnight
HCSKnight's picture

"Walking across the Boston Common this morning,I came to realize that the unpalatable (to me) option of some debt forgiveness on mortgages looks increasingly to be necessary "

Really?  Mortgage debt forgiveness before bond haircuts?  Really? 

Over the past year, especially with his Global Warming proselytizing, Grantham has shown himself to be ethically and intellectually among the worst of creatures, a socialist parading as a capitalist.

Wed, 08/10/2011 - 09:06 | 1545761 Dr_Lucid
Dr_Lucid's picture

My Dad runs with the "$500K - $1 Million in CD's or cash crowd" at the local gym.  They are all retired - teachers, contractors, some dentists..etc..etc.  He comes home and says, "...when the group is complaining about volatility in Utility stocks ( a lot of them own AEP ) then I know the whole F$%%$ing thing is broken."

Sure a little naive for the ZH group, but these are the folks with mountains of cash on the sidelines.  Some of them just stopped doing ladders on CD's all together and want to wait it out.  They tried ETF's, they no longer look at the 20's or 30's...they are just tired of it all. 

And the wild swings of yesterday actually make them feel better that they are out since they used to watch the box all day and it made them crazy when the Dow jumped 50 points.  The robots, the Fed, Obama, whoever is out there to blame for this mess doesn't realize that OLD people don't have the stomach for jerk ass moves up and down like yesterday.  If they want to encourage investing again and get this cash off the sidelines they have to start making the market more stable.

Wed, 08/10/2011 - 09:11 | 1545774 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

I know alot of the same crowd through relatives.   They could just buy gold, couldn't they?

Wed, 08/10/2011 - 09:16 | 1545804 JuicedGamma
JuicedGamma's picture

Not so much, the geezer crowd is looking for income and low vol, does gold show any sign of growing a dividend?

Wed, 08/10/2011 - 09:14 | 1545792 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

sure, just make it where it only goes up (and on my dime).



Wed, 08/10/2011 - 09:21 | 1545827 jmcadg
jmcadg's picture

Don't suppose there's any chance of hitting this mark in the next 9 days, I've got an S&P 900 Put that expires on 19th Aug. Lol

Wed, 08/10/2011 - 09:55 | 1545859 Monedas
Monedas's picture

What's with Grantham's gratuitous comment about loss of confidence in "Capitalism itself" ? We never had Capitalism except for some accidental brushes with it in the late 1800's ! This mess is Keynesian and Socialist ! Elusive Capitalism has never had it's day in court.......but my God how we have prostrated ourselves to the Socialist Gods ! Look yourself in the mirror and wipe the cum off your shit eating grin chin ! Monedas 2011 Don't make me laugh ! I'm the joker here !

Wed, 08/10/2011 - 09:40 | 1545932 MobBarley
MobBarley's picture

I thought the S&P 500 was called S&P 500 because it was worth 500?


*poke poke poke*


Wed, 08/10/2011 - 10:02 | 1546059 Monedas
Monedas's picture

I'm the ghost of Capitalism past......which never really existed ! The history of the World is not written with freedom, light and laissez faire Capitalism ! It is written in blood, envy and Socialist greed for power ! We will never enjoy the blessings of Capitalism if we aren't smart enough to understand it ! Monedas 2011 Comedy Jihad Trail of Tears

Wed, 08/10/2011 - 10:09 | 1546093 Grand Supercycle
Grand Supercycle's picture


My long term indicators still warn of USD rally and EURUSD weakness.

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Fri, 04/13/2012 - 01:29 | 2340776 lasvegaspersona
lasvegaspersona's picture

hmmm so he is worried about a prolonged period of low stock market values but not with hyperinflation. Just what, I wonder gives him such confidence that the 'children' can achieve one without getting the other. I wonder if these great market advisors are not seeing just their part of the game afoot.

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