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Gravitation Returns As Apple Falls, Drags Everything With It

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Four of the last five days have seen AAPL stock price swing +/- 3 sigma with today's drop approaching the largest drop in six months as rumors of iPhone sales weakness spread virally. Realized volatility is exploding on many different measures and AAPL implied volatility back to November highs. Of course as tensions mounts and the stock breaks Monday's closing VWAP, so margin calls on options expiring tomorrow are flopping over into various other markets as S&P 500 e-mini futures drop back below their 50DMA and VIX jumps up over 19.5% once again. Gold has pulled back in line with the USD and while the S&P 500 flip-flopped between bullishly synced with the USD and bearishly synced with Treasuries, for now equities in general are trying to catch up to longer-term Treasury weakness.

The cyan, yellow, and dark blue lines are the closing VWAPs of the last few days and as is clear we see heavy volume around these levels. The break just now of the closing VWAP from Monday's low print day was accompanied heavy volume once again...

With huge sigma moves over the last few days that will likely wreak havoc with anyone's risk-return optimizer...

As realized vol has exploded...

And broad asset class movements have been very interesting...

But the Equity-Treasury divergence intraday is actualy a convergence to Treasury's implied weakness from the last week...

Charts: Bloomberg

 

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Thu, 04/19/2012 - 14:55 | 2359143 Ahmeexnal
Ahmeexnal's picture

BTFD!

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 15:08 | 2359204 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

Beyond ironic that Apple (as an idea/stock/product) is where it is, in the big apple.

ori

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 15:39 | 2359287 Levadiakos
Levadiakos's picture

I buy cash 

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 17:47 | 2359303 The Big Ching-aso
The Big Ching-aso's picture

 

 

 

AAPL used to be the apple of me one good eye until it cost too much to look at it.

 

 

 

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 20:48 | 2359993 AldousHuxley
AldousHuxley's picture

why buy appl when you can buy friends....facebook IPO in May

Splunk IPO today. x2.

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 15:10 | 2359207 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Now that ZH has broadcast the downward movement, it is safe to buy AAPL again. 

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 15:43 | 2359304 Levadiakos
Levadiakos's picture

This is the last remaining retail stock out there. everything else is managed asset allocation programs...

It's not surprising that the SPX is threatening to break the handle of an inverse cup and handle pattern here this afternoon (~1373-4)

'

The only way the market survives is if "Mad Money" is canceled.

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 16:05 | 2359380 Comay Mierda
Comay Mierda's picture

AAPL breaking key support levels on heavy volume and heading lower to eventually fill the gaps at $570 and $430.  great shorting opportunity

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 16:16 | 2359413 Levadiakos
Levadiakos's picture

A NFLX overlay wpuld play out nicely and it's ironic that AAPL pps is/was almost exactly 2 times NFLX playing from the top at $305.

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 15:44 | 2359307 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Go for it.

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 15:24 | 2359243 LongSoupLine
LongSoupLine's picture

Warren's prostate must be unloading.

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 15:42 | 2359299 LongSoupLine
LongSoupLine's picture

Check out the 3+ million SPY share spike at 3:27.39

3+ million shares in less than a second at 137.6+ each??....yeah, must be a "day trader"...or Waddle and Reed.

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 16:03 | 2359379 Gringo Viejo
Gringo Viejo's picture

If I'm in gold at $1,900.....I'm disappointed.

If I'm in Apple at $644......I'm very fucking nervous.

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 14:58 | 2359155 Bam_Man
Bam_Man's picture

Nothing to see here.

It is perfectly normal for the stock of "The Most Valuable Company in the World" to have intraday swings of 3-5% every single day.

Otherwise you might be tempted to think that the stock of "The Most Valuable Company in the World" is nothing but a Hedge Fund/HFT plaything.

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 14:59 | 2359172 dow2000
dow2000's picture

Sta-bil-i-teeeeeeeeeeeeee! Fed Manadate!

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 14:58 | 2359159 HedgeAccordingly
HedgeAccordingly's picture

Once again the entire market is brought to her knees by one lonely stock - Crapple -

crapple Vs Goog - http://hedge.ly/HLf767 

Goog held firm..

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 14:59 | 2359174 Ahmeexnal
Ahmeexnal's picture

goog is a cia/rothschild operation.

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 15:18 | 2359226 engineertheeconomy
engineertheeconomy's picture

GOOG and AAPL both  cater to the military-banking-complex. They all sleep in the same bed

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 15:17 | 2359228 Clueless Economist
Clueless Economist's picture

SHUT UP JIM MORRISON

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 16:19 | 2359427 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

I LOLed.

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 18:40 | 2359761 CPL
CPL's picture

the lizard king...uncanny.

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 23:21 | 2360265 Treason Season
Treason Season's picture

Pop trivia question of the night

Who's father was intimately involved in one of America's illegal war and how?

Give up? The Viet Cong didn't

 

George Stephen Morrison (January 7, 1919 - November 17, 2008) was a Rear Admiral and naval aviator in the United States Navy. Morrison was commander of the U.S. naval forces in the Gulf of Tonkin during the Gulf of Tonkin Incident of August 1964. He was the father of Jim Morrison, the lead singer of the rock band The Doors.[1][2][3]

 

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 15:46 | 2359319 blu
blu's picture

GOOG has too much power to work for anyone except themselves. I'm more concerned that the CIA and Rothschilds will be soon or are already working for GOOG.

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 16:20 | 2359433 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Yeah, and all of their initial operating capital just magically appeared out of nowhere.

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 15:46 | 2359311 Levadiakos
Levadiakos's picture

I just need Michele Caruso Cabrarrea's opinion like I need cancer. is there a more ignorant person on  TV?

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 16:04 | 2359377 blunderdog
blunderdog's picture

You're not supposed to listen to her, she's just there so you can look at her tits.

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 16:13 | 2359403 Levadiakos
Levadiakos's picture

Don't get that far w/ sound off because I gag at the face

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 14:58 | 2359161 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

 

 

High Hoe!

High Hoe!

A Shorting I did GO!

 

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 16:06 | 2359382 DCFusor
DCFusor's picture

Short from 621, myself.  yee ha.

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 14:57 | 2359162 UP Forester
UP Forester's picture

GERONIMO!

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 14:57 | 2359166 brucef9321
brucef9321's picture

i getting tired of this stuff.

 

 

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 15:45 | 2359309 blu
blu's picture

There's an app for that actually.

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 14:58 | 2359167 Pancho Villa
Pancho Villa's picture

Apple once had a product called the Newton. It was a flop.

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 15:01 | 2359180 Ahmeexnal
Ahmeexnal's picture

you obviously never had one.

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 15:53 | 2359340 Levadiakos
Levadiakos's picture

legs furiously pumping their stiff green gallop

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 15:56 | 2359348 Pancho Villa
Pancho Villa's picture

No, I never owned one. A friend of mine had one and he said it had nice features, but the software was kind of buggy and the price was rather high. There was a famous episode of the Simpsons where one of the school bullies tries to make a note on his Newton saying "Beat up Martin", but the Newton translates this as "Eat up Martha". So he just throws the Newton at Martin.

And naming an Apple product for a guy famous for observing falling apples seems like tempting fate. But then, Apple was able to get some sort of revenge by dropping the Newton.

The Newton was one of the products that Apple came out with after Steve Jobs was pushed out. Scully and the managers that followed just didn't seem to have Jobs' knack for creating killer products. Sales rose for a couple of years after Jobs left, then stagnated. Will the same thing happen again?

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 15:57 | 2359360 Levadiakos
Levadiakos's picture

Could you fry an egg on it?

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 16:10 | 2359396 blunderdog
blunderdog's picture

I had one (for work purposes) and supported them for awhile.  They sucked, unless you were one of the lucky folks whose cursive handwriting worked the way the Newton expected it to.  It didn't get too hot, it ran on AA's and fit in a pocket.  It was no match for the Palms and the Wizards and all the other devices with keyboards on 'em.

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 14:58 | 2359168 TradingJoe
TradingJoe's picture

Ah, yeah, options expiration, since when does it care anymore!? Up by Monday eh?!

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 15:02 | 2359169 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Looks like the maximum pain pin for tomorrow is $590.  MMs always kill off AAPL options players on opex.  It is tradition.     

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 14:59 | 2359173 pods
pods's picture

I thought it was against the rules for AAPL to go down?

pods

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 15:42 | 2359305 blu
blu's picture

Read the fine print there. It's against the rules unless GS or MS or one of the others is set to make a profit on the move.

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 16:28 | 2359457 LongSoupLine
LongSoupLine's picture

Good point blu...after all, GS did just upgrade AAPL.  go figure.

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 15:00 | 2359179 Paul Atreides
Paul Atreides's picture

The hedge fund hotel has cockroaches.

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 16:19 | 2359419 Levadiakos
Levadiakos's picture

Thought they learned that lesson with FSLR, NFLX &c, &c

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 15:01 | 2359182 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Whoever was selling calls for tommorrow is clearly in control of the situation. 

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 15:05 | 2359196 Christoph830
Christoph830's picture

3-4 pm ramp-up anyone?

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 16:19 | 2359424 Levadiakos
Levadiakos's picture

50 Dow points right atcha

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 15:07 | 2359198 Ted Baker
Ted Baker's picture

THE BEAR SHORTING AT 425$ THE PIECE

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 15:08 | 2359201 Silversem
Silversem's picture

Why buy an apple if you can also buy Gold (or trade it with a contract for difference)

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 15:12 | 2359212 PicassoInActions
PicassoInActions's picture

this is good one

http://www.yourbofa.com/

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 15:41 | 2359301 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

LOL

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 15:18 | 2359221 Waterfallsparkles
Waterfallsparkles's picture

Yesterday it was put on Goldmans Ultra Buy list.

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 15:17 | 2359223 LongSoupLine
LongSoupLine's picture

Major Hedge Fund Pucker Factor.

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 15:19 | 2359224 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

Meanwhile the warmongers are busy starting Libya 2.0...

- Free syria army calls for a international military intervention without the approval of UN Security Council.

- Clinton calls for UN resolution to enforce Syria sanctions 'by all necessary means'

- US senators John McCain, Lindsey Graham, Joe Lieberman in a joint statement calls for airstrikes on Assad's forces & creation of safe zones inside Syria.

- Saudi Arabia calls for the massacre to be stopped.

- US urges Russia to accept an arms embargo on Syra.

- US democrats say they will oppose deploying US ground forces to Syria. (not excluding US troops given to the UN/air strikes of course)

- Russian officials say US demands of more sanctions not acceptable.

- France says there's currently no plans to deploy French troops in Lebanon to the Syrian border.

- Hillary says Turkey is considering invoking NATO article 4. (Article Four states that members "will consult together whenever, in the opinion of any of them, the territorial integrity, political independence or security of any of the Parties is threatened".)

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 15:43 | 2359308 OpenThePodBayDoorHAL
OpenThePodBayDoorHAL's picture

Hilary needs to go crawl back under a rock. The State Department has become just another arm of the Pentagon.

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 23:24 | 2360270 Treason Season
Treason Season's picture

More like a "bush" than a rock.

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 16:29 | 2359463 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

More like Axis and Allies, 2.0, complete with new and improved warfare triggers... er... I mean security pact.

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 15:20 | 2359231 Waterfallsparkles
Waterfallsparkles's picture

It is the perfect example why people are getting out of the Market.

Pumped to $644. Dropped to $671.  Pumped back up to $615. (yesterday).  Dropped today back to $584.

Anyone who is programing the computer is making Money.  Everyone else is getting creamed.

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 15:20 | 2359234 AmazingLarry
AmazingLarry's picture

Told you the iAAPL algo would get a virus.

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 15:26 | 2359253 TideFighter
TideFighter's picture

Anybody see my LLC call yesterday? Hope so.

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 15:27 | 2359257 TideFighter
TideFighter's picture

Of course I mean LCC, oops.

 

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 15:36 | 2359275 junkyardjack
junkyardjack's picture

Setting up for a rally after earnings I bet

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 15:37 | 2359284 reTARD
reTARD's picture

I see plenty of sales telling the sheeple how to spend their tax refunds. Is there such a thing as the tax refund stimulus? LOL

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 16:30 | 2359469 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Love your avatar!

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 15:39 | 2359292 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Hey how's all the BTFD'ers doing from this morning? Can't lose.

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 17:10 | 2359583 junkyardjack
junkyardjack's picture

I bought some dip this morning, they had it on sale at the supermarket

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 15:40 | 2359294 blu
blu's picture

Gravity is a terrorist and hates our freedoms.

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 15:45 | 2359313 OpenThePodBayDoorHAL
OpenThePodBayDoorHAL's picture

Maybe Homeland Security can build a gravity detector. Install them around the country.

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 15:49 | 2359324 blu
blu's picture

They could build a gravitometer into a hand-held device. Hey they could add it to the iPad! Then there could be an app, and you could ask Siri to find ...

Oh hell. Nevermind.

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 15:50 | 2359333 surf0766
surf0766's picture

Is there a count on how many time they have said "off the session lows" today?

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 16:00 | 2359369 CvlDobd
CvlDobd's picture

These god damn stick saved Teflon US markets!

How the fuck can you trade a market or market signals without follow through? The IBEX is .4% above 2009 lows and the S&P is at 1370????

How is this possible?

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 16:05 | 2359385 Bam_Man
Bam_Man's picture

Everyone knows for sure that Spain is f**ked.

But not so sure yet about the US.

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 16:12 | 2359401 CvlDobd
CvlDobd's picture

I bought EWP into the close. I think the Fed or ECB pulls a rabbit from the hat to avoid the "Spain is under 2009 lows stigma. " plus as you said everyone knows so its time to go the other way.

Fuck the domestic markets.

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 16:30 | 2359472 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Because there is no market?

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 16:43 | 2359508 GernB
GernB's picture

So this is what it comes to. The hopes and fears of every investor lie in whether Apple will do well or poorly.

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 16:52 | 2359538 blu
blu's picture

Pretty much.

This situation will last until global war breaks out. Again. Then we'll be right back to taking care of Raytheon and Lockheed.

Thu, 04/19/2012 - 22:01 | 2360128 Arnold Ziffel
Arnold Ziffel's picture

I went to Office Max today to look at the new iWhatever and they had none..."don't carry them" said the manager. They had about eight competitors...cheaper too....

Fri, 04/20/2012 - 00:06 | 2360310 q99x2
q99x2's picture

I can afford Linux.

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