This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.

Greece Bank Run Shows No Sign Of Stopping: Deposit Outflows Continue In November

Tyler Durden's picture





 

The year is not over yet, and already Greece's banks have lost €36.7 billion of their deposit base in 2011, and a whopping €64.6 billion since the beginning of 2010, which is down from €233 billion to €173 billion in under two years. In October another €3.5 billion was withdrawn from Greek banks and likely either redeposited somewhere deep in the heart of Switzerland, or converted to various inert metals and buried somewhere in the back yard. The good news: the outflow is just over half of October's record €6.8 billion. The bad news: at this rate of outflows, Greek banks will have zero deposits in around 4 years. Which at the end of the day is all the matters, because while the Troica can keep funding capital shortfalls indefinitely, all faith in the country's banks has now been lost and Greece is officially a zombie economy. The fact that the country's deficit as a % of GDP is about to be re-revised even higher is no longer even meaningful: the Greek economy and its banking sectors are now officially dead. We merely feel bad for anyone who still has cash in banks as, just like gold in 1930s America, any residual cash may soon be "sequestered" for national security purposes. After all there are bankers who need record bonuses, and Military sales from Europe and the US that have to proceed using what will likely soon be "commingled" deposit cash.

 


- advertisements -

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Tue, 01/10/2012 - 12:08 | Link to Comment Pladizow
Pladizow's picture

The surprise is that there is still a bank left to run from!

Tue, 01/10/2012 - 12:19 | Link to Comment DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Typically through history we see that it takes a long time for a country to come apart when it gradually deteriorates through government mismanagement, loss of moral values, etc.

This can go on a for a long time yet (kicking the can).  Or something could blow up, and the game ends quickly.  This is now Black Swan Country, where one of those could land on us, and then it's lights out.

Bank runs will come here too.  And I always liked the analogy that the first rats off the ship usually get it right.

Tue, 01/10/2012 - 12:21 | Link to Comment Pladizow
Pladizow's picture

You are on the internet - where is "here"?

Tue, 01/10/2012 - 13:29 | Link to Comment DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

USA, sorry.

Tue, 01/10/2012 - 12:26 | Link to Comment Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

"This can go on a for a long time yet (kicking the can)."

I agree DoChen. We ain't seen nuttin yet. Our 'problem' is that we have a sense of outrage. So we see the manipulation and can kicking for what it really is. Sadly, for the great unwashed masses as well as those who directly benefit from the Ponzi, much of what is to come will be welcomed, even cheered on, as necessary, needed and desperately wanted. Thus there will be popular support for a great deal more can kicking.

We have (many) miles to go before the deep sleep.

Tue, 01/10/2012 - 12:33 | Link to Comment LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

I disagre CD.  From my perspective, the supply chains of essential materials is pretty damn fragile right now.  I agree in so much as we see a slow deterioration in the standard of living for a while until a major supply line is interupted (most likely in the energy sector, but could be as crazy as fresh water).  Then the world simply goes to war over the remaining resources.

Tue, 01/10/2012 - 12:58 | Link to Comment Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

I have someone in my ear on a daily basis who constantly reminds me of the eventuality of supply line disruption. I have no doubt it will happen. I also have no doubt it will be spun by the 'leadership' as all the more reason to do this or that even more. The urge to kick the can will become irresistible to both the can kickers and the general population.

Certainly more and more average Joe's are becoming angry and/or concerned. But when their little corner of the world starts to deteriorate they will demand someone do something about it to stop their pain. Thus they will kick the can some more.

The real questions are this. When will can kicking no longer "work" to stave off a (massive) collapse and what exactly is meant by a "(massive) collapse"? I contend that the sheer number of (half) asleep people in America and the rest of the developed world, when rudely awakened, will not let go of their cheap gas and supermarket food very easily. This all but assures us that we will go to war in a big way if for no other reason than to distract the population from what's really going on.

This is an old game that has been played for thousands of years. Yes, it will collapse. But not as soon as we expect it to happen. Momentum is a very difficult force to overcome.

Tue, 01/10/2012 - 13:02 | Link to Comment Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

I think the oilgarchs are watching closely and that they will bleed the Fiat Ponzi until the disruption, then only to go to war so to have an exuse for the disruption.

The turning point could be as simple as debt outweighing gdp.  It could be a sharp decease in oil supply.  It could be a leverage up situation of collective balance sheets due to the debt, spurring gold to new (real) highs.  This would incight panic, and the panic will usher in chaos.  The chaos will bring destabolization and it could be a very small event that gets the ball rolling.

Tue, 01/10/2012 - 14:28 | Link to Comment MachoMan
MachoMan's picture

Yes, but what happens when everyone knows the plan ahead of time?  When instantaneous communication renders the knowledge gap much more narrow?  How do you go through with a secret plan when those secrets are much more difficult to keep?

The sad part is that exposure has an increasingly less chance of being materially punished...  (thus the exposure of plans/secrets has an increasingly smaller effect).

Tue, 01/10/2012 - 13:56 | Link to Comment Overflow-admin
Overflow-admin's picture

10 years and counting of slow-motion collapse in Argentina. 100% agree.

http://ferfal.blogspot.com

Wed, 01/11/2012 - 02:07 | Link to Comment StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

When a moving object hits an immovable wall, all that kinetic energy gets converted to heat and light, you know:  an explosion!

E = 1/2mv2

Tue, 01/10/2012 - 13:31 | Link to Comment DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

@ Laws

So far in MY business the supply lines are running just fine.  Even Japanese bearing productiosn was only a little affected by the earthquake.

Tue, 01/10/2012 - 12:33 | Link to Comment GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

'Our 'problem' is that we have a sense of outrage.'

Not really sure what you mean but I get the feeling that the 'sense of outrage' is something people tell themselves out of sheer vanity. MsCreant's piece about MF Global reminded me of how that is always the first reaction among the 'great unwashed' as if those of us who simply say: 'Yeah, that's about right' are living in some dark underworld of cynicism.

Tue, 01/10/2012 - 13:11 | Link to Comment midtowng
midtowng's picture

At what point does the flight of deposits turn insolvent banks into bankrupt ones?

Tue, 01/10/2012 - 13:56 | Link to Comment jez
jez's picture

". . . down from €233 billion to €173 billion in under two years. In October another €3.5 billion was withdrawn from Greek banks . . ."

 

The surprise to me is that these outflows have been so sluggish. Tyler is telling us that total deposits are down 26 per cent in 23 months, and that November's withdrawals were about two per cent of the October 31 balance.

 

So, compared to January 2010, three-quarters of the money hasn't moved. I couldn't say whether the Greek people lack imagination, or whether they fear burglary more than they fear their banks closing, or what the reason might be. Seems odd to me.

Tue, 01/10/2012 - 15:19 | Link to Comment Watson
Watson's picture

I agree.

I would have expected large balances to have been wired long ago to a location outside Greek jurisdiction, and J6P's small balances to have been converted to EUR (or CHF) notes, and buried.

A four year wipeout period is not a 'run', more a gentle stroll.

Why is the decline so slow?

Watson

Wed, 01/11/2012 - 01:44 | Link to Comment ucsbcanuck
ucsbcanuck's picture

Does anyone have equivalent stats for Argentina? 

Tue, 01/10/2012 - 15:28 | Link to Comment Phil
Phil's picture

What is the other $173 billion thinking?

Tue, 01/10/2012 - 12:14 | Link to Comment GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

Saganaki is a better place for their Euros than Piraeus.

I'm looking forward to my summer vacation to a bankless state...

 

Tue, 01/10/2012 - 12:33 | Link to Comment Don Birnam
Don Birnam's picture

What the Hellene authorities ough do is forge a strong Greco-Roman "lend-lease" partnership -- say, for instance, the Italian Financial Police ( "Guardia di Finanza" ) can lend ( not lease -- the Greeks have nothing with which to pay ) a kennel of their currency-sniffing dogs to the Greek Ministry of Finance. Posting several "Eurohunds" at strategic border crossings will go far in fostering a more ordered civic comity: bank runs are a symbol of the freedom of capital movement -- in this case, flight -- and are in poor taste, you know. The State simply cannot allow it to continue.

Tue, 01/10/2012 - 13:12 | Link to Comment Manthong
Manthong's picture

I have had the pleasure of many a nice seafood meal for less than a few hundred drachma ($ 10.00 or less) at the time.

Way before the Euro and when the dollar was still strong and just beginning its long, sad Nixonian voyage away from any semblance of soundness.    

Tue, 01/10/2012 - 12:08 | Link to Comment vegas
vegas's picture

Another shocker headline. Who could have guessed this? Maybe this is what Taleb meant by a "black swan" event?

WTF.

 

http://vegasxau.blogspot.com

Tue, 01/10/2012 - 12:09 | Link to Comment ZippyBananaPants
ZippyBananaPants's picture

Happy 3rd Birthday ZH!!

Let's all send them some love in the form of cash contributions!

I did, they are the best place for news, and that I am grateful for!!

Zippy

Tue, 01/10/2012 - 12:11 | Link to Comment BLOTTO
BLOTTO's picture

THE EU is not meant to fail - the weaker member countries will get tossed out and replaced with stronger ones (if their is such thing)

It took them awhile to build this baby up - they are not going to let it go down. Having the EU fail is going against the grain of the agenda they want to achieve - a One World Government.

I think we will have a 10 member nation at the end of it all.

The New Holy Roman Empire...

Nothing NEw Under the Sun. History is just repeating itself...

 

Tue, 01/10/2012 - 12:11 | Link to Comment ekm
ekm's picture

Based on my recommendations, two of my buddies in Greece moved their money out.

Greek default by March simultaneous with an Iran attack.

Tue, 01/10/2012 - 12:12 | Link to Comment RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

Transports are rocking.  UNP and KSU making new 3-year highs today.

 

http://www.wallstreetbear.com/board/view.php?topic=92962&post=336830

What happened to the "Recession"?

I thought we were supposed to have bank runs and gas lines by now?

LOL...

Tue, 01/10/2012 - 12:15 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Gold rocking hard today!

Nice job on finding yourself 2 brand new rear-view stocks to glom onto.

Tue, 01/10/2012 - 12:33 | Link to Comment HarryM
HarryM's picture

Gold rocking hard because Gold has been moving the same direction as the market.

So might as well go long on equities .

Tue, 01/10/2012 - 12:39 | Link to Comment mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

Gold rocking hard because Gold has been moving the same direction as the market.

So might as well go long on equities .

 

No thanks, Mr. Squid.  Priced in gold, the market is going down and has been for years.  It's funny how often in those "equities surging" days (as CNBC gushes) that gold is going up more.  Like today.

It's also funny (not ha-ha funny in this case) how often the gold market is manipulated down just as folks are beginnning to notice that it is going up more than equities.  Hmmm...

Tue, 01/10/2012 - 12:40 | Link to Comment agent default
agent default's picture

While I agree that much of the latest action across the markets is liquidity driven, I think that when people realize the true mess we are in, they will flee the stock markets and pile on to gold and silver, as a means of storing wealth.

Tue, 01/10/2012 - 12:45 | Link to Comment mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

 

 

Agreed, but lots have fled the equity markets already - thus the ultra-low and declining volumes.  I think it gets really interesting when people realise what's going on and flee the US Treasury market.  All bets are off then...

Tue, 01/10/2012 - 12:38 | Link to Comment Jay Gould Esq.
Jay Gould Esq.'s picture

<< Gold rocking hard today! >>

Ag following suit, as of this writing. Even Cu is up nearly 3%. Stuff found in the ground is the trade du jour, for January 10. 

Now, come January 11 ? Who the Devil knows. Too long-term.

Tue, 01/10/2012 - 14:17 | Link to Comment Overflow-admin
Overflow-admin's picture

In Switzerland, they discontinued the last in-train ticket buying possibility that existed in intercity trains last december. Surprisingly, they managed to earn around CHF 500'000 in around 2 weeks just in fines.

Actually fines cost more than almost any single ticket (even first class) you can buy to travel in Switzerland. Less than 10 years ago the fine was half, and you could buy your ticket in almost ANY train (even in little regional lines). You can check that fact: www.cff.ch geneva airport to saint-gall in 1st class costs just CHF100 = today's fine.

How do you spell growth, RT?

Tue, 01/10/2012 - 12:12 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Meanwhile the totaly overt and desperate act of pumping equity markets thru futures manipulation continues in your face.

Tue, 01/10/2012 - 12:42 | Link to Comment snowbaall
snowbaall's picture

If I lived in Greece, I'd want my money, too.

Nevertheless, Greek female ass smells like roses.

Screw the banks.

It's time for the Drachma.

Tue, 01/10/2012 - 12:55 | Link to Comment Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

The Algo Machines from Hell are going haywire lately.  LULU?  NFLX?  WTF?

Thu, 01/19/2012 - 21:53 | Link to Comment Silver Bug
Silver Bug's picture

Greece HAS to go back to the Drachma this year. They will be forced to, by the market!

 

Pandora Style Beads

Tue, 01/10/2012 - 12:14 | Link to Comment toros
toros's picture

looks like $/Yen intervention coming soon

Tue, 01/10/2012 - 12:31 | Link to Comment roy10
roy10's picture

If only they were smart enough to let Greece restructure in 2010, everybody would have been much better off now. This unexplainable fear of a default is causing nothing but suffering for everybody involved.

Tue, 01/10/2012 - 12:14 | Link to Comment yogibear
yogibear's picture

The Euro is dead meat. The sweet-talking Frenchman, Sarkozy, is dictating the gameplan for Merkel.

Tue, 01/10/2012 - 12:35 | Link to Comment roy10
roy10's picture

The biggest fallacy of this crisis is the one saying that the Euro needs to break up if a country (or countries) default? Why exactly should that happen? Should California succeed if it defaults? This argument makes no sense. Greece, Italy, Ireland, Portugal and Spain should all restructure their debts and move on. It will only make the euro stronger.

Tue, 01/10/2012 - 20:30 | Link to Comment supafuckinmingster
supafuckinmingster's picture

"Greece, Italy, Ireland, Portugal and Spain should all restructure their debts and move on. It will only make the euro stronger."

 

By that you mean the above countries should decide to pay less to banks, thereby affecting the profits/survivability of banks, and at the same time saving their taxpayers billions? Sorry friend, that's not how the game plays, as the banks control the governments, and the governments are the ones that at least appear to make decisions on restructuring/default. Won't happen.

Tue, 01/10/2012 - 12:41 | Link to Comment Jay Gould Esq.
Jay Gould Esq.'s picture

Sweet-talking Frenchman ? 

I thought Sarkozy was Hungarian -- simply with an accent like Maurice Chevalier ?

Tue, 01/10/2012 - 12:16 | Link to Comment Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

My question is what are the owners of the other 173bil waiting for?

Tue, 01/10/2012 - 12:17 | Link to Comment RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

KRE straight up off the lows, $19 to $26 in 3 months.

 

Where's the "banking crisis" everyone has been harping on???

Tue, 01/10/2012 - 12:36 | Link to Comment HarryM
HarryM's picture

Did you think Obama was going to "Roll Over"?

 

Tue, 01/10/2012 - 13:03 | Link to Comment kito
kito's picture

hey robo, great hindsight call again on KRE. btw, those two consumer charts we peeked at the other day, you know, the one that shows consumers depleting their savings for the holiday season, and the other chart, that shows consumers spending on credit at double the pace of their savings wind down----not looking too good for the strength of the consumer, eh???

Tue, 01/10/2012 - 12:18 | Link to Comment HarryM
HarryM's picture

DAX + 2.50%   DOW + 102

Rally!!

Tue, 01/10/2012 - 12:23 | Link to Comment pupton
pupton's picture

Hey TD/ZHers, did anybody see this article slamming ZH???  Calling TD out for an article on PSLV being described as physical vs. the paper it really is.  I kind of agree with them.  WTF is the reason for the 30% premium on PSLV???  It isn't anything more than paper.

http://etfdailynews.com/2012/01/09/sprott-physical-silver-trust-bulls-in-deep-space-9-9-9-pslv-slv-gld-agq-zsl/

Tue, 01/10/2012 - 14:29 | Link to Comment ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

The Daily Capitalist (DoctoRx) seems to miss the point of the ZH article.

Key sentence from Tyler in the original ZH article:  "In other words, someone is willing to pay up to 30% over spot for the right to be closer to the physical metal than merely have a paper claim on a paper claim (pre hyper rehypothecation and what not)."

The Sprott PSLV is not holding physical, but it gives a measure of what people are willing to pay to be closer to actually owning physical than MF Global "possession" of silver.

If people are willing to pay a 30% premium using the PSLV versus a certificate owned by Cede & Co. (DTCC), it gives a measure of the price strength (demand) for physical.

Do you trust Sprott to hold enough physical silver to back the ETF versus owning a certificate owned by DTCC?  That is what makes a market.

Daily Capitalist article:  http://dailycapitalist.com/2012/01/08/pslv-bulls-moving-into-deep-space-...

ZH Article on Backwardation:  http://www.zerohedge.com/news/physical-silver-surges-record-30-premium-o...

ZH Article on DTCC:  http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/06/biggest-financial-company-you-have...

Tue, 01/10/2012 - 12:22 | Link to Comment BandGap
BandGap's picture

Greece has given up and is preparing for the worst.  What's the big surprise?

Tue, 01/10/2012 - 12:23 | Link to Comment xela2200
xela2200's picture

So would bank runs in the US be a Deflationary event? Taking a lot of money from the economy (Money velocity).

Tue, 01/10/2012 - 12:35 | Link to Comment mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

 

 

Both deflationary and inflationary.  Money velocity increase will result in folks chasing staple items around with more fiat, driving up prices for those items.  As those items go up in price, folks will service long-lived assets even less, driving prices for those things down.

Some folks don't by into the notion of inflation and deflation happening together, yet that's exactly what's been happening in the past 36 months - housing crashing while food & clothing going up 6-10% per year.

If the bank runs go into panic mode and there is a loss of faith in a currency, then you get a (relatively) short spurt of hyperinflation and looting, followed by a deflationary depression.  If you can hang onto real money (PMs) through such a time, you will be in probably the biggest buyer's market in the history of mankind.

I've said and will continue to say that money velocity is the key to one nasty door.  It's no surprise that the banking complex is so reluctant to let loose all of the digital liquidity they've been gifted with.

Tue, 01/10/2012 - 12:41 | Link to Comment GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

Capital controls won't allow for any of that.

Tue, 01/10/2012 - 12:46 | Link to Comment mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

 

 

I'll raise yer capital controls one violent and youtube-viral bank run and all bets are off...

Tue, 01/10/2012 - 12:25 | Link to Comment Dick Darlington
Dick Darlington's picture

Stabeeleetee? Yep, this must be it.

Tue, 01/10/2012 - 12:34 | Link to Comment verum quod lies
verum quod lies's picture

Ah, let’s put the battle of inflationists vs. deflationists into perspective with this data point. By definition, that is according to the deflationists’ definition (i.e., a decreasing money supply), prices should be deflating in the double digits on an annual basis (remember, money is debt based and debt deflation means well deflation). Let me guess, they are not. In fact, inflation is alive and well in Greece even though the money supply shrivels up like RT’s private parts during a dip into Lake Baikal during the Siberian winter. Yes Orwell would be proud of the deflationistas, “properly” defined “deflation” means inflation, and inflation means well something we mortals cannot comprehend. As I always like to point out, most of the greatest inflations have happened when economies are imploding and private debt is shrinking (and often the government is desperately trying to take up the perceived debt slack –ever heard of Argentina, Greece?).

 

Tue, 01/10/2012 - 12:42 | Link to Comment Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

I said this to Euros, Aussies, and Brazilians (even though some made fun of me) when Full Tilt Poker was running for 2-3 months after Black Friday (who then, after the AGCCs decision, ended up defaulting) about their bankrolls on the site.

For any person, Greek or not, with money in a Greek bank: get your cash+assets out now.  Stop reading and get every single dime in a Greek bank/fund out now. 

Don't fuck around with your wealth.  The Bank of Sealy Postpropedic is the safest bank not only in Greece, but soon th world once shit-hits-fan.

 

Tue, 01/10/2012 - 12:45 | Link to Comment Stoploss
Stoploss's picture

So, i guess we learned the market doesn't respond very well to the euro decoupling theory as of yesterday, no?? Which, in turn, must mean the only "money" in our market appears to be only european. And judging by the spin CNBSW puts on the US data releases, along with all of the 'buy american stock' pundits, it's pretty easy to see why the all the green today. On even less volume than yesterday. After the gov't proclaimed a new high in student, and vehicle debt enslavement. And after Alcoa became the poster child for margin collapse. Of course, after gas went up another dime last night. But, it's all fucking bullish.

Tue, 01/10/2012 - 12:46 | Link to Comment Dorky
Dorky's picture

Greece's economy is too insignificant for the whole global economy.

Move along, Greece. The market is rallying regardless of you.

Tue, 01/10/2012 - 12:58 | Link to Comment kito
kito's picture

dorky, you have confused hungary for greece ..................

Tue, 01/10/2012 - 13:03 | Link to Comment BlackholeDivestment
BlackholeDivestment's picture

Greek Bank Run, sounds like Joan Jett and the Runaways. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6xICjSyBA5I&feature=related

Tue, 01/10/2012 - 13:07 | Link to Comment Georgesblog
Georgesblog's picture

A year ago was probably a good time to get out of Dodge, in this case, Athens. It's pretty clear that Greece has a simple choice. They either get out of the Euro while the getting is good, or submit to debt slavery.

http://georgesblogforum.wordpress.com/2011/11/02/the-daily-climb-2/

Tue, 01/10/2012 - 13:27 | Link to Comment ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

If I were Greek:

Take any cash out, convert to Dollars (FDIC bank) or Dollar denominated assets (TIPS?), wait for Greece to default, Euro to move to parity with dollar (Euro down, Dollar pop) then convert to Drachma's when you know the valuation point.

Money will be safer outside of Greece and worth more when you bring it back in.

Could hide it in the Swiss Franc, but it won't get the pop the Dollar will when the Euro crashes.

Either way, I would get it out of Greek banks and assets.

Greece = 70%-80% haircuts and default before the end of the year.

Wed, 01/11/2012 - 02:26 | Link to Comment StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Better still (and avoid the Printing press demons...), buy some Ag/Au -- they do sell it in grams, if you cannot round up enough fiat-currency...

Tue, 01/10/2012 - 13:28 | Link to Comment savagegoose
savagegoose's picture

export controls on euro  cash?only if you are greek i imagine

Tue, 01/10/2012 - 14:59 | Link to Comment MarcusLCrassus
MarcusLCrassus's picture

I call it a good start.

 

I wonder what the numbers look like for the US. 

Tue, 01/10/2012 - 16:05 | Link to Comment financial apoca...
financial apocalyptic contagion's picture

BAC at 6.65

Tue, 01/10/2012 - 17:04 | Link to Comment Joebloinvestor
Joebloinvestor's picture

Newest rumor of the day regarding Greek debt.

 

50% haircut, and they need more money.

 

What a fucking surprise!

Wed, 01/11/2012 - 02:28 | Link to Comment StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Olive oil and feta doesn't command top-dollar/euro/drachma these daze!

Tue, 01/10/2012 - 19:18 | Link to Comment Tetres
Tetres's picture

A strong start on another huge gap-open saw that the SPX-500 & Dow established new five month highs during the first half hour of action. Strength was noted in both Asia and Europe (chatter of easier policy in China; some assurances on Euro debt ratings) with early leadership from Finance and Commodities helped to keep the indexes afloat underpinning a so called gap-breakout of the near week long narrowing ranges.

 

The SPX-500 stalled near the upper end of a resistance zone (1295-1297, session high 1296) and drifted sideways into midday. A breach of morning range lows mildly extended the pullback off the early high in early afternoon trade with a choppy lateral drift persisting into the close. The opening gap-up rally quick stalled out but the rest of the session was marked by a choppy, overlapping trading pattern that held near retracement supports suggesting it was part of a short term temporary pause.

 

Interesting to note that the SPY as an example (broad based SPDR) ended 2011 at $125.50 and it closed today at $129.13 (6-days) a huge run of $3.63 or a gain of 2.89% in a very anemic trading environment...let's look under the headline gains:

·        01-03-2012  the SPY opened up $2.26 at $127.76 on a huge induced pre-market gap, it ended the trading day at $127.50 (-0.26 below the opening gap) hardly positive

·        01-04-2012  the SPY opened down -$0.30 at $127.20 it ended the trading day at S126.70 up $0.20 on the trading secession ($0.50 above the opening gap) a positive

·        01-05-2012  the SPY opened down -$0.69 at $127.01 it ended the trading day at S128.04 up $0.34 on the trading secession ($1.02 above the opening gap) a positive

·        01-06-2012  the SPY opened up $0.16 to $128.20 it ended the trading day at 127.71 (-0.49 below the opening gap) hardly positive

·        01-09-2012  the SPY opened up $0.29 to $128.00 it ended the trading day at 128.02 (0.02 above the opening gap) slight positive

·        01-10-2012  the SPY opened up $1.37 to $129.39 it ended the trading day at $129.13 (0.26 below the opening gap) hardly positive

 

So as you can see almost all of the price action in the first 6-trading days of the new year, has come in the pre-market hours....leaving very little price action to trade upon....and in a very anemic volume environment its even harder to chase gapped up crap!

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!