Greece - Eurozone or Not? Slavery or Freedom?

Tyler Durden's picture

Via Peter Tchir of TF Market Advisors

 

At this moment, the headlines coming out of Greece are confusing and contradictory.  It isn't clear whether or not there will be a referendum or a vote of no confidence.  There may be a new leader, there may not be.  All we can do is wait for the next headline.  In the end I think there will be a referendum.

You can't put the genie back in the bottle.  If a referendum is cancelled now, how will the people of Greece react?  If the country was already "ungovernable", how will it get better once the people see this chance to have their voice count, snatched away by Merkozy?  I suspect that the protest and strikes will escalate to the point that a referendum has to be scheduled.  I may be wrong, but I think the Greek people will react very negatively to being told their chance to vote has been taken away.

Right now, the vote, if there is one, is being framed as Eurozone or No Eurozone, where Eurozone represents "the land of milk and honey" and No Eurozone is "a land of famine and disease".

The markets reacted positively to the fact that this vote would be about being in the Eurozone or not, because who would choose famine and disease over the land of milk and honey.  But is it really so simple?  Is the Eurozone really so appealing?  Is there no credible Non Eurozone plan? Maybe this will become about "debt slavery" versus "freedom"?

The Eurozone as Debt Slavery

What does staying in the EU offer GreeceThe "bailout" has a goal of achieving a debt to GDP ratio of 120% in 2020.  So the plan is for Greece to suffer through austerity and strict foreign control for 9 years just to become a cr*p country?  When the Greek crisis first started, the official debt to GDP ratio was below this.  Is it really so compelling to struggle with the program with the only target being to still suck?  They have no control over the money supply or interest rates - they are at the mercy of the ECB.  Merkozy is happy to push down on Greece and threaten their sovereignty.  Having to listen to Juncker can't be an exciting national pastime.  The EU trade agreements are good, though with no real industry, it mostly benefits Greece on their imports.  Travel without passports is nice, but not crucial.  Greeks won't be able to leave the country to get jobs elsewhere so easily - this may actually be good for a struggling economy. The IIF hasn't even produced details on what the "haircut" will look like. How hard can it be for a bunch of bankers to produce an actual plan.  It is clear that Greece has had almost no say in the bailout and with each new iteration they are losing more control of their own destiny.  This is what you get if you stay in the Eurozone.

No Eurozone as Freedom and Sustainable Economic Growth

The No vote needs a credible plan.  Let's start with repudiating all existing debt.  Merkozy says we are with them or against them, well let's go for it.   Not accepting your horrific bailout means we have to leave the Euro, then we are going to do this right.  Greece will not make another payment on any existing debt.  Debt to GDP is now 0.  There are GREECE bonds and GGB bonds.  The GREECE bonds may have some rights to fight this, as they are under English law, but the GGB bondholders are probably completely out of luck since they were done under Greek law.  Not sure if you have looked, but the documentation on sovereign debt is pretty slim to begin with and very little is devoted to bondholder rights, since they have none.  So step 1 is to stop paying on existing debt and we think it will work.  Not only has our debt to GDP ratio dropped to zero, but our annual budget deficit problem just got a lot smaller.  With an average coupon of 4% on 350 billion of debt, the savings would be 14 billion euro per annum.  That looks to be about 75% of the annual shortfall.

It is true that this will wipe out our banks.  We cannot make special consideration for our banks.  They made mistakes and have to be punished (but "wink wink" the banks have shifted so much risk to the ECB that it is really a problem for the ECB and we have no interest in making the ECB's problems smaller, since they are part of what we are leaving).  Once the losses have gone through the system we will then nationalize the banks.  All depositor accounts will be protected.  Not a single cent held in a bank account will be lost.  Yes this is a cost to the government and we will need some money for this, but rest assured, no bank accounts will experience a loss.

The nationalized banks will function and ensure the economy runs smoothly and will have a much more concentrated focus on Greece.  You may hear some noise from the bankers that they won't work for a nationalized banks, but that is all it is.  The computers will still run, and tellers can be replaced if they really want to quit, and frankly the senior management is what got us into the problem, so they may not be asked to stay anyways.

The pension system will also be hurt.  We will be making a one-time contribution to the pension funds to make some of their losses, but it will be contingent on changes.  Defaulting on our existing debt doesn't solve all the problems.  Some of the austerity programs will have to be implemented and the citizens of Greece will share part of the burden of achieving sustainable economic growth.  The cuts will not be as severe as those demanded by the EU, but more importantly, you, the people of Greece, are making these sacrifices for yourself and for future generations of proud Greek citizens.

So, we will need some money to nationalize the banks, cover all depositors, to reduce the damage to the pension system, and to pay bills until we are able to run without an annual deficit.  To this end, we have our friends from the EU to thank.  In their effort to strip us of our wealth many supported the "Eureca" plan.  We realize that it was an attempt to strip us of our heritage and to enrich themselves at our expense, but not all of the ideas are bad.  We will be auctioning off minority stakes in some of the entities.  The winners will be required to not only pay for the minority stakes, but will participate in our new Drachma bond offering.  We have already been approached by several potential investors.  It seems, that although the EU may be fair weather friends, many other nations are private investors are happy to support the new Greece.  Sovereign wealth funds in particular are excited to be part of the new Greece and are comfortable that with our incredibly small debtload, not only will the new Drachma bonds trade well, there is little expectation of inflation.  We have no need to "print" money like other central banks, because our debt to GDP ratio will only be 20% after the asset sales and new bond issues.  With such low debt, many of the growth countries in the world will find it a valuable addition to their investment portfolio.  We expect to have enhanced trade agreements with many of these countries shortly as well, in an effort to replace what the EU has decided to deny us.

There will be claims that this cannot work, yet look at Korea, Russia, Argentina, Iceland, to see countries that either defaulted or were on the precipice that made tough decisions, played hardball, and went on to unprecedented periods of prosperity.

Say no to the Eurozone and usher in a brand new era where we control our own destiny and have no debt problems, with a real possibility of having surpluses and reserves in the future.  The new Drachma will be a solid currency backed by hard assets, a strong government, dedicated citizens, and little debt.  Do not listen to the alarmists, they have everything to gain from keeping us bound to the eurozone debt shackles and everything to lose by us taking back our freedom.

Letting People Think is a Dangerous Thing

Maybe the No Eurozone plan won't be so compelling, but if people start taking a serious look at how it would work, it might not be so bad, and don't forget, the Eurozone plan isn't that great.  At some point, the citizens of the country need to make the decisions.  Electing politicians that can then be corrupted by Merkozy is not a long term solution.  Maybe the Greeks will decide to stay in the Eurozone, but I don't think it will be as obvious as people currently believe.  Default can help the debtor, particularly when the lenders  have no real rights in event of default.  I am quite confident that at this stage, Merkozy view this little crisis as resolved, because they haven't actually spent more than a second wondering what Greece could really do, and are just assuming that the no Eurozone threat is enough to sway them.  Maybe it is, for now, but like everything else in this crisis, once something gets out there, it seems to take on a life of its own and keep coming back to haunt the "solution makers".

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
grunk's picture

One way or another, the Greeks will vote.

SWRichmond's picture

And the vote is simple: are Greeks adults, or children who need to be told what to do by outsiders?

topcallingtroll's picture

I am going to bet there will not be a vote.

That is what this new government coalition is about. If the buffoon Gpap resigns the first order of business will be to cancel the referendum and then we should see a strong market rally...I hope.

He_Who Carried The Sun's picture

Freedom? Gaining freedom? You gotta be jokin'...

I Got Worms's picture

If the vote is called off or "delayed" I sincerely hope the Greeks burn that motherfucker down.

Mongo's picture

So when will Greece be on Ebay?

jcpicks's picture

Auction would be 'No Reserve'.

FeralSerf's picture

That "As-Is, Where-Is" thingy could be problematical though.

GeneMarchbanks's picture

Freedom ... always. Not just Greece. Greece is the beginning.

Arius's picture

you might be onto smt .... all of these movements everywhere the Arab Spring, Occupy movements ... it seems it is an ongoing unraveling stage .... run for cover ...

TrulyBelieving's picture

Freedom ... always requires responsibility. Not just in Greece, but anywhere. Even in 'The Land of the Free and Home of the Brave' there are far to few that understand this concept, and far fewer would yearn for it. The new freedom, born recently under socialism, is to depend on someone else for the things needed. Until this basic fundemental is understood, there will be no Freedom.   

Doubleguns's picture

Nope not freedom but on board the Titanic is plenty of milk and honey. Getting aboard the life boats will be cold, no food or drink, no band and no luxuries at all. Very austere conditions indeed. Please reconsider Greece, do not get aboard the life boats. Continue the voyage with us....aboard the most wonderful EU Titanic. LOL

NetDamage's picture

Heads are gonna role sooner or later IMHO

xcehn's picture

Death to the banksters.

CPL's picture

Follow your bliss.

xcehn's picture

Freedom is worth every drop of blood.  Greeks are better off dead than as euro/bankster slaves. Slavery is the ultra new and improved Western brand of democracy.

ChickenTikka's picture

Anybody care to guess why the ECB cut happened?  What do the insiders know and why did it prompt them to do this? 

Dr. No's picture

A new Sheriff is in town and he needed to make  a few arrests in order to show everyone who is in charge.  Nothing more.  it makes no difference.

Stuart's picture

Clusterfuck is a word and a half re: to resign or not to resign....  are there any adults over there???

The rate cut is just a rumour too I guess.  SNAFU

gared44's picture

watch out what is happening in Iran - much more serious than Greece

mess nonster's picture

Greece IS what's happenning in Iran... no, I take that back. Greece is what's happening in israel, ad Israel is what's happening in iran.

gared44's picture

why do u think oil is spiking??....

SheepDog-One's picture

Electing ever more corrupt politicians, clearly not a solution.

j0nx's picture

Wasting your time voting clearly not a solution either.

edotabin's picture

If I am not mistaken, wasn't a referendum promised for the British people and then ......

This EU horseshit is completely out of control. 10-20 banks and their upper management viceroys flat out lying to the entire world.

Edit: and oh yeah, totally getting away with it.

SheepDog-One's picture

This is all about 50 or so people in the world trying to figure out how to save their own sorry asses as billions watch daily.

j0nx's picture

You're right but tell me who are the bigger fools in that scenario?

Iriestx's picture

My money is on the Greeks being cowards.  They'll roll over and play dead when the ECB tells them they're not allowed to have their refferendum.  Sure, they'll be a day or two of strikes, protests and burning some cars, but in the end they'll roll over and play dead.

 

They don't have the stones to take their country back from the ECB.

SheepDog-One's picture

In that case they may as well BE dead...as Max Keiser says they will NO LONGER be Greeks, they'll be 'IMF's.

topcallingtroll's picture

Agreed.

The greeks are just pussies and lazy cowards who cant control their spending. They got mad and had a temper tantrum when daddy tore up the credit card and told them they had to earn their own money.

Iriestx's picture

Exactly, if they were capable of making real sacrifie, they wouldn't find themselves in this situation.

jdelano's picture

you realize american debt crosses 100% of GDP this month right?  Glass house. Stones, yada yada?

Iriestx's picture

Americans will roll over and play dead faster than the Greeks.  The Americans are too busy DVRing Dancing with the Stars while they watchin the E! miniseries on the Kardsashian divorce and tending to their farmville crops on facebook to give a shit about anything in their country.

Uchtdorf's picture

Nor, usually, the slingshots with which to hurl those stones. Draconian gun laws.  Ha! Draco was a 7th century Athenian lawmaker. Get it? A Greek. Small world. Class is over.

johny2's picture

And which brave tribe you come from, to look so condescendingly upon the greeks. 

vato poco's picture

I've got no love for Greeks -they'd rather argue than breathe - nor any patience for clusterfucks who reflexively mewl "America ain't so great neither!"

But.

Remind me again exactly how many riots & deaths we had here when the IRS announced their 'guilty-until-proven-innocent' policy? Or our brave drug warriors started confiscating all those houses, cars, cash, etc. found at a drug bust, even if they belonged to someone else entirely and had nothing at all to do with the druggies? Or when private ownership of gold was outlawed? Or when it became a felony to "tell a lie" to "any federal agent", even if that "lie" was "I don't think I did anything wrong!"? Or when they trashed the 4th amendment and started doing random drug & alcohol roadblocks? Or when it suddenly becme a "crime" to film cops - public "servants", mind you - while they're beating and macing handcuffed people *on the clock*? Or when heroic federal LEO assholes bravely shot/killed/burned alive women and kids at Waco and Ruby Ridge? I can do this all day, so let's end it with etc., etc., etc.....

Greeks don't have a monopoly on rolling over & playing dead. And "having the stones" to fight TPTB means being willing to take on trigger-happy goons with badges, and a system geared to crap on any & all who dare to challenge them. Easy enough to write about - lots harder to *do*.

Kina's picture

You can't put the genie back in the bottle.  If a referendum is cancelled now, how will the people of Greece react?  If the country was already "ungovernable", how will it get better once the people see this chance to have their voice count, snatched away by Merkozy?

The banksters do not care, so as long as they get what they want they wouldn't care if every Greek died of starvation.The banks, their bonuses and their power are the only thing important and they will trash countries, murder Presidents and so on to achieve this..

And of course it will be a number of paid for Greek politicians that are owned or paid off by the banks that will betray Greece, as per usual.

 

One good thing that may come from the global financial implosion when it comes is that the Banks and banksters will be clearly identified as the evil creatures that caused the destruction.

 

 

LawsofPhysics's picture

Greece will be labeled as a terrorist state.  NATO led invasion will commence to "restore democracy".

Maxwell Smart's picture

G-Pap - the boy who cried wolf.

 

agent default's picture

Greece will be out of the Eurozone within a year.  Others will follow.

Uchtdorf's picture

Exactly right. Confusion must reign for the next few years so TPTB can "save" us by instituting a worldwide currency. First, the Euro will fail and then the Mighty (not) USD will crash.

FMR Bankster's picture

Default now or default later. These are the only two choices. Greece can't pay even if they wanted too. (and they don't) When you lend to deadbeats they don't pay you back.

FunkyOldGeezer's picture

All this smells of a big back-hander that's gone to G-Pap from someone who wanted to make sure their insider information was going to be correct.

Skeebo's picture

I don't get the optimism, so you're going to get the guy that pushed through everything that the EU wanted Greece to do replaced... with someone from the party that was completly opposed to it all?

Why does anyone think that the leader of the opposition party will act in any manner different with regards to the referendum that G-Pap has?

topcallingtroll's picture

The opposition was only opposed to it in order to score political points. In actuality the socialist government in power hates the agreement even more, but even they know it is better than total chaos.

The eurozone will not let greece go with just an argentinian level of collapse. Massive legal claims, economic embargo, and unpredictable takings of greek trade goods to satisfy judgments will prevent anyone from risking trade deals with greece.

Greece must totally collapse for a genetation and suffer to the point of hunger as an example to italy, portugal, ireland and spain that leaving the euro is worse than staying.