The biggest sovereign debt restructuring in history is now, well, history. The headlines are finally come in:
- GREECE ISSUES STATEMENT ON DEBT SWAP
- GREECE COMPLETES DEBT SWAP
- GREECE SAYS EU172 BLN OF BONDS TENDERED IN SWAP
- GREECE GETS TENDERS, CONSENTS FROM HOLDERS OF 85.8%
- GREECE SAYS 69% OF NON-GREEK LAW BONDHOLDERS PARTICIPATED
We learn that €152 of the €177 billion in Greek law bonds have tendered, which is 85.8%. This means that €25 billion in Greek law bonds have not - these are the hedge funds that could not be Steven Rattnered into participating, and will now sue Greece for par recoveries.This is also the number that ISDA will look at today to determine if, in conjunction with the CAC, means a credit event has occurred.
And yes, the CACs are coming, as is the Credit Event finding:
- GREECE SAYS WILL AMEND TERMS OF GREEK LAW BONDS FOR ALL HOLDERS
As a reminder from February 24:
Finally, as we have said all along, it is the UK-law bonds that are the fulcrum security here:
- GREECE TO EXTEND NON-GREEK LAW BOND OFFER PERIOD TO MARCH 23
And here is Veni:
«On behalf of the Republic, I wish to express my appreciation to all of our creditors who have supported our ambitious program of reform and adjustment and who have shared the sacrifices of the Greek people in this historic endeavour. With the support of our official sector and private creditors, Greece will continue implementing the measures needed to achieve the fiscal adjustments and structural reforms to which it has committed, and that will return Greece to a path of sustainable growth. Our invitations to offer to exchange, and submit consents with respect to, foreign law governed will remain open until 23 March 2012, after which there will be no further opportunity for creditors holding those instruments to benefit from the package of EFSF notes, co-financing and GDP linked securities which form an important and integral part of our invitations.»
And ISDA is not wasting any time: it will meet at 1pm GMT to "discuss the question and to determine whether a credit event has occurred."
Finally, as a reminder, the ISDA vote today will be made by the following dealers and non-dealers. It will be up to them to decide if they wish to destroy the last trace of "integrity" of the CDS market and in effect commit institutional suicide. Because if they do in fact find that there has been no trigger event, then watch CDS bases go negative across the board, as any last pretense of CDS as a hedging instrument is thrown overboard, and the only "hedging" instrument left is to sell.
Bank of America / Merrill Lynch
JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A.
The Royal Bank of Scotland
BlueMountain Capital (Second Term Non-dealer)
Citadel LLC(First Term Non-dealer)
D.E. Shaw Group (First Term Non-dealer)
Elliott Management Corporation (Third Term Non-dealer)
Pacific Investment Management Co., LLC (Second Term Non-dealer)
...And finally, congratulations to all Greek pensioners. You have now all been Corzined. Further instructions will be mailed in your next monthly pension statement.