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Market Already Pricing In Greek 25% NPV 'Haircut'
As we just reported, Reuters has broken news that Greece is starting to grow a pair and negotiate directly with debtholders on a much larger haircut on its debt than Dallara's IIF is hoping for. This is significantly bad news in terms of both the powers-that-be losing control, banks capital raising and writedowns, CDS triggers, and EUR stress. Given that GGBs are generally trading at 25% of Par out past 1.5 years, the market had begun to discount this already but it is clear that the game of chicken just escalated and the fact that European financial credit closed only marginally off its lows while stocks soared into the green once again tells us where professionals are trading. US financials are losing gains now and ES is pulling back to VWAP as EUR sells off.
Peter Tchir, of TF Market Advisors, offers some more color on this next leg down in the SANFU that is Europe.
The good news is that the head of the IIF probably had his 15 minutes of fame and it can go back to being a cushy lobbying group rather than pretending it has real influence over the banks.
The bad news is generally bad though. This goes back to being a very piecemeal and bank by bank, country by country situation.
With Greece being directly involved it increases the risk of a Repudiation/Moratorium Event for CDS. That merely extends the maturity of existing CDS trades, but should scare the heck out of anyone who is long Greek risk to Dec. 20th. The threat of not paying may be enough to trigger that.
While the IIF or EU was handling the negotiations, it was hard to trigger a repudiation/Moratorium Event. As a short term CDS seller, I would be horrified by this development (though you should have expected it). If they say anything that triggers, then CDS maturity is extended. You would still need a Failure to Pay or some other Credit Event to trigger settlement.
The Failure to Pay Credit Event is also much higher. This will be like herding cats. Getting banks to agree to something "voluntary" was already hard, this will make it virtually impossible. Greece will find that every bank tries to wiggle out of the risk. That the ones with paper maturing in the near term will delay the most in hopes of getting paid out at par. I think risk of a Credit Event has increased, and with Repudiation/Moratorium on the table, the cost of Dec. 2011 and March 2012 CDS should have increased a lot.
This is not good for bank share prices. We saw have seen how bank liquidity has dried up even more after MF Global went under, and I have to admit I didn't think it would impact the market as much as it did. I think fears of derivative losses cascading through the system are overblown, but I definitely have likely underestimated both the risk of that and the immediate hit to liquidity from those fears. This is another clear risk-off change in European policies, and a complete embarrassment to Merkozy (though I could never understand why they felt the IIF could deliver).
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Why stop there? Why not go for 100%?
and wtf, they are negotiating a euro price...this was not at all how it was supposed to go, but wth right?
I guess we have our own muni situation here and Feds who bought State debt
They be lucky to get 5 Cents on the Euro, and that in Fresh New Drachmas ...
Unlimited euro bailout by Ogolfer and his junta:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uNPQ8EdddkM
(hot chick with brains!)
Cute but short a rack and bad teeth. The structure looks sound though. Nothing 10k couldn't fix.
And some tweezers for that monobrow.
I think that might be a teenage boy with long hair.
Hold on, I'm going in for a look-see..
Yeah that is the nice thing about being rich.
You can find a fixer upper girlfriend with potential and take her in for a complete overhaul.
Cool hippie-chick type babe there in the vid, Leandra Bernstein, working for Lyndon LaRouche. Interesting.
LaRouche should have his people pitch in to the comments on ZeroHedge more, would liven things up. LaRouche is a radical voice that people sometimes don't find easy to categorise ... Imprisoned by the US feds for a while but Bill Clinton pulled him out.
He is a populist reactionary with progressivist leanings.
Think of Pat Buchanan and franklin roosevelts love child.
I think you are looking for the term "block grant" which nearly wrecked the US municipalities in the 70's.
Looks like it's going just as well in today's time frame.
.
Along that same thought, why not ask for a 450% haircut? Never waste a good default.
Greece is writing the playbook here. The world markets had better be watching... closely.
Debt has to be extinguished sooner or later, with profit, or with pain. It's the manner in which it disappears that is on the table.
Hand some of these out at the Euro XMas party!
Wait until they demand a big haircut on ALL of their bonds not just those held by the private sector. Merkozy will shit itself then!
Haircut? This is more like a scalping.
Not yet it isn't.
25% isn't remotely close to the required fix to Greece. 70-80% is required to come to even come close to a balance. 100% if they want to see any real financial growth.
Arent they actually talking about a 75% haircut? They were already at 50%. 25% would be going the wrong way no?
Dumb, Dumb...
So they can continue to get loans and money they cannot repay.
100% is a default.
Learn the IMF/ECB rules fool.
You don't have to "go" for anything to do that. All you have to do and indeed all that is in fact being "done" is "let events play themselves out." next up is a "talk to the hand" moment as so called "investors" like Petey here realize "there is no value" (let alone worth) to their paper. The banks that are outside Europe and can still lend hold all the cards here.right now I can only think of one...maybe two...in the form of HBC and GE capital.
I was in Argentina a year or so after they told the IMF to pound sand but I don't remember what the figure was that they ended up with as far as % of write down. I do remember there were a whole lot of unhappy campers. Incidently I think that the IMF is CA CA now in South America.
Anyone have those figures for the Argentina "default". Been back to Bs As couple of times since and even with the inflation they seem to be doing much better. MIlestones
How is it anything short lunacy to buy bonds from a country that is actively negotiating defacto default with existing bond holders?
Are you asking us or the ECB?
TPTB have proven to be, not master planners and evil geniuses, but a gathering of the least talented people from each country world-wide. There's a strange psychosomatic ability among idiots.
Nice to see Greeks slowly waking from the debt slumber...
No, they're not stupid. Their ACTIONS appear to be stupid. And, well, they are. BUT, the very system that they were handed, and are operating under, doesn't provide for any solution. The ONLY thing they can do is to keep tossing the lit bomb hoping that it'll go off in someone else's hands. We need, however, to get this straight: it was ALWAYS a bomb, and the fuse was predestined to be lit: when the system is based on interest/growth, well, math guarantees the outcome...
not exactly...every system like this wants the right breeding and with that comes the ability to act in a cognitively dissonant manner, where you have essentially a private and public reality. I know people like this. They admit at times the utter insanity of the "system" but at the same time say that the system has its own demands and if you do not meet them, you get excluded. Truth is not a demand of the system. A certain orthodoxy is.
Genius has nothing to do with it. There were various scientific geniuses who bucked orthodoxy and were shut down by fellow scientists, also ostensibly geniuses and brilliant at math. Fourier, Faraday, most recently M. King Hubbert- who proposed a notion of national peak production when ALL the other geologists had also seen wells and fields peak and decline. The systems they belonged to had their own demands.
You commentary as always is spot on, and insightful, and is some of the most intelligent material that I read here. But I am tired of getting the finger, even though I find it amusing. Would it be possible to use a different jpeg that is still jaded in a different way? The finger takes away slightly from the message.
If you agree with Trav then you're facing the wrong direction. If you face the right direction you don't see the finger (only those "on the other side" do).
It's only an island if you look at it from the water -- Jaws
TPTB have proven to be, not master planners and evil geniuses, but a gathering of the least talented people from each country world-wide. There's a strange psychosomatic ability among idiots. <<<<<<
sir, they are a lot of things but idiots.............not so much..............
"As a rule, and this rule is inherent in the very nature of the declines and falls of civilizations, the demand for codification reaches its climax in the penultimate age before a social catrastrophe, long after the peak of achievement in jurisprudence has been passed, and when the legistlators of the day are irretrievably on the run in a losing battle with the ungovernable forces of destruction. "
Arnold Toynbee
so mr toynbee , like most historians writes about things he sees in in a non descript style , full of flowery vicissitudes, while telling us what happened but never telling us why and who was behind it.
now fast forward to today.
please read the history of the neocons by kevin macdonald.....
http://www.kevinmacdonald.net/UnderstandJI-3.htm
now be sure and understand. this is one small facit of activity. this has nothing to do with banking per se but everything to do with why our country does what it does.
now , then just who are the ones who are doing what they do in banking? are they idiots? i submit they are not idiots. oh , one more thing. if you do read macdonald's piece, be sure and pay attention to what is done about leadership areas and how these people always put useful idiots shall we say in positions of power to fool the masses and throw off the dogs from the scent so to speak, of any industrious gentiles that perhaps would try and figure out who is doing what and who has the real power.
so in conclusion, one must conclude that there are no idiots involved in this business. everyone is doing what he or she is supposed to do. it looks stupid to us out here in flyover country because it simply does not compute. it does not compute because you and i are not wired like this. all that is going on, is simply slight of hand and it is theft of the wealth of nations.
OPM! OPM! OPM!
That depends upon whose money is being used to buy the bonds. If the gov't is using my money to buy them, the price/return is of no consequence since the net effect is hoped to be "confidence". When your ass is in a sling, appearance is all that matters, and cost is not a factor. Same goes for hedge fund buying, retirement fund buying, and those rich folk with 2-digit IQs. The buying that is being done seemingly by rational investors is simply shill purchasing by TPTB. Your description of this as "lunacy" is right on the money -- your money.
25 cents on the dollar is about the right price for banana republic debt: Greece, Ecuador, Italy, Spain, Argentina ... all the same thing
so we are getting there
Katie, bar the door!
Go ahead and shave it all off Greece, it will grow back eventually, maybe even thicker.
lol. but once they get past that initial itchy stage they'll be ok.
They've got ointments for that itch, fix it right up.
Nah.......shit wont grow back. Once your bald..........your chances of regrowing any hair are pretty slim.
It's tough for the Eurocrats to continually fight reality. When will the ECB fianlly throw in the towel and engage in massive monetization?
I believe they already have, but the news will come once a loaf of bread is worth 10 million reichmarks -ahem- euros.
Hilarous. Marc Faber on Bloomberg this morning said he'd rather buy Italian bonds at 7% that the 30-yr. U.S. Bond which pays practically nothing.
Says the Fed can print, Italy can't.
By the way, the Fed better start printing faster and equities better start skying, otherwise the PM bulls are going to be in a world of hurt.
PM bulls in a world of hurt? How about all the momo traders still crying in their cheerios over Travel Zoo, Groupon, Netflix, Lululemon, ad nauseum?
RoboTarder STILL furious over his gold call 'top is in here at $900' and dumped his claimed gold portfolio, been seething with rage over gold ever since....he'll never live that down.
The most ironic thing is that most silver and gold investors originally bought precious metals as protection against exactly the type of financial crisis we are going through now. In other words, the price of gold and silver should be soaring based upon current conditions. Instead, the manipulation and financial terrorism is so pronounced that the crooked commercials on the COMEX have managed to convince the market that financial crises involving a flight from paper assets is somehow bad for precious metals. That’s preposterous...and you should not be fooled by their crooked games. The proof is that these commercial crooks are buying hand over fist on the contrived sell-offs. So should you. - Silver analyst Ted Butler, November 24, 2011
How did that pets.com trade go, Robo?
did tyler ever take away this turd's contributor privileges?
Faber is always funny. I especially like it when he does that thing where he tells the truth about a situation and then everyone acts all confused and dumb, kinda like you just did.
What deposit my money in one of the banks run by Corzine's mates??
Yeah, sure I'm going to leave my estate to those kleptocratic pr**ks.
Nothing like being worried about protecting worthless shit...
And yet people still brag about handing over their money and going all long with these thieves.
Mind boggling.
then Faber's insane...those italian bonds are a surething default. The USTs will repay at least some nominal coupon
No worries, Although Tom Lee (JPM strategist) took his year end target S&P target down from 1475 to 1350, that is still a 16% rally into year end.
Of course Mr. Lee couldn't name a catalyst, but "goodwill towards all men and peace on earth" is a strategy, right.
#btfd
"Of course Mr. Lee couldn't name a catalyst"
Yeah, I run around asking people what the hell could possible "turn things around." Nothing. Yet, people are STILL positive that it's going to happen, well... because it HAS to happen.
Even the wolves are looking/sounding like sheep these days.
IIRC, Thomas Lee had maintained a 1250 year-end price target on the S&P right through November, 2008. As Rick Perry would say, "Oops".
With Mom & Pop long gone from this "market" (and probably not coming back for at least 30 years or so), one has to wonder how much longer JPM and others will feel it is necessary to continue to employ the likes of Mr. Lee and his ilk.
What's hilarious about that? US debt and unfunded liabilities are growing at $8.65 trillion a year per usdebtclock.org. That is 4.3 times Italy's GDP every year. The chance that USA defaults (actual default or by inflation) is much higher than Italy defaulting.
Politicians in USA could not agree to cut $1.2 trillion over 10 years.
Italian debt at 7% plus is a safer bet.
It pains me to say this, but the US can NOT default, not as long as it is the world's reserve currency and it can print (with impunity).
You see, if the contract says that you owe some amount it doesn't say what the VALUE of that amount (of fiat) should be. Italy will reach into its pockets and find that it doesn't have valueless currency (any), while the US can continue to pull (fake) rabbits out.
Why stop a 25%? This appears to be just to buy more time on extend and pretend. But at some point, the children must be sent to their bedrooms.
where is italy trading re par 1.5 years out?
17 countries....one currency..one central bank...no controls for enforcement...its over....its now everyone out for themselves in the back room..but all smiles in front of the cameras..I just hope...no PRAY..that our Fed does not get involved
we have 50...nobody stopped illinois
FED already did get involved, $1 trillion Euro bailout a year ago...and thats not even counting the FED directed trillions in payouts to bailout Europe in 08.
It’s enough that US taxpayers and savers have to levitate the stock market, and not have to do it for Europe, too.
While Barroso and Monti and Draghi – Goldman - work fast to meld together a banker-designed State of Europe, the US is no longer the United States of America, it's become the State of America – under the boot of the Fed.
This is extremely inflationary and hitches the US to a swirling death star. The US already is in a downward spiral and the more we get involved in EU debt, the more we’ll go down, down, down with the European Union of Bankers.
That is, if Americans lie down and take it. If you follow the undercurrent for Ron Paul, no matter how the Establishment tries to stop it, he gains.
que le fuk?
Speaking of haircuts, NFLX is looking mighty sick today... Ouch bitchezzzzzz
Greece is "groupon-ing" itself
Lol funny.
As is AMZN, LNKD, GRPN...
A whole lot of bulls are gonna get Sanduskied.
OH nice reference.
He didn't fancy cows anyhow.
why don't they report all this great news, while the european markets are open?
And Greece leads the way for the game plan of all the other broke western sovereigns.
Time to reload the popcorn.
There is still time to short GGBs if you haven't.
How about a 100% haircut?
Fiat currency is fraud, plain and simple. Any contracts involving the use of fiat currency are fraudulent and void of law.
Market crash seems imminent.
Better shovel in some kamikaze capital.
We're about to see some red, I doubt it'll be epic. 3pm onwards should be a delight...
1160 is crucial. If that doesn´t hold, expect 1050 next week.
market closes at 1:00 today (US)
FUCK
FUCK
FUCK
WTF
Wells Fargo Said Near Purchase of Bank of Ireland’s Burdale Lending Unit
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-25/bank-of-ireland-said-to-near-sa...
And US stock retail bulls are stomping the ground head butting the gate ready to get this rally ON!
LMAO
so. when are they going to price in a U.S. default or mass printing scheme?
libertarian86.blogspot.com
...I feel like the markets would be significantly lower then they are right now if they were actually "pricing it in"...
Silver almost broke $31.
Still getting smoked.
Sprott must be having a heart attack
Poor RoboTarder, still furious over his call that the PM top was in 50% ago where he dumped his claimed gold portfolio for momo paper.
Hell you must almost be a damn maniacal Batman villain by now, 'tard.
Dear RobotTrader,
In reference to: "Silver almost broke $31.
Still getting smoked.
Sprott must be having a heart attack"
Sprott is interested in buying $1.5B more Silver and he would be very happy to buy it at a low price.
Personally, I do not care since I have nearly zero fiat currency with which to buy Silver.
Once all the gold is looted by the banks, the payout will be 0.00%
What was the amount of gold Russia bought today? 100 tonnes or so?
It is more likely that Greece will remain closer to the Latin American model: run your country into a muddle of debt now and again – and just go bust. After all, the Greeks pioneered default as well as democracy: the first recorded example of bankruptcy was when ten Greek municipalities defaulted on loans from the Delos Temple in 4th century bc. Greece has defaulted five times in the past two centuries.
Meanwhile the US does it in an official-looking way, a marketing-friendly "adjustment" way (1971). It's all about appearance (no substance, in any case).
Duh... This is what a debt re-structuring looks like in real time.
Meanwhile, the politicians/eurocrats continue to issue assurances, plans, plans to make more plans, proclamations, etc.
Hilarious!
Merkozy and the IIF still haven't learned it's not deciding on a trade that matters, it's when one EXECUTES THE TRADE that counts. Friggin amateurs!
Meanwhile the technocrats in Athens now appreciate 25% NPV is probably the best deal creditors will be able to garner as 20% or less NPV seems increasingly likely in the near future.
25 percent haircut? oh if they were so lucky...
But isn't the whole point to bring Europe and the US banking system that is insuring it to the brink in order to fire up the printing presses in 2012?
Isn't L-Pap one of theirs? This is not being done because anyone has balls, we've already determined that balls mean certain death, unless having them means that you are able to screw your people over and still show up at demonstrations to address crowds. We know L-Pap has allegiance to the Squid anyway, so he's only doing what he is being directed to do.
The informercial media is scaring everyone 'reporting' about the upcoming Eurozone disaster. Since when are they interested in warning us about anything for legitimate purposes? Why are they doing it now?