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For Greece, "Tomorrow" Has Arrived

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Submitted by Mark Grant, Author of the Financial Commentary: "Out of the Box"

Tomorrow Has Arrived

The day dawns with a deal for Greece that is full of smoke and mirrors; lies and deceptions. It is a deal pretty much as expected and, as I have said before, now the realities are going to be confronted. Europe has spun the agreement and the Euro has rallied some and the S&P futures are up but the next few weeks, I am afraid, will hold some serious disappointments. The page turns today because now we are about to confront not what is told to us but the actuality of what has been presented to us and just what will happen as a result.

How many European Union officials does it take to change a light bulb?

None. There is nothing wrong with the light bulb; its condition is improving every day. Any reports of its lack of incandescence are an illusional spin from people that unfortunately know how to add and subtract. Illuminating rooms is hard work. That light bulb has served honorably, and anything Mark Grant says undermines the lighting effort.

The Smoke and Mirrors

The IMF has not yet stated what its contribution will be to Greece and will not, they tell us, until the middle of March so that we will not know until then the real size of the bailout. The much promoted $176Bn bailout may not be accurate if the IMF pulls back on their allocation.

The projections for the growth of Greece, even in the leaked document provided by Reuters, utilize assumptions that will not be met, which has been the case every time, each time, for the last two years so that fuzzy math is being touted once again and the new/new projections will, in my opinion, come nowhere close to the truth.

The IIF agreed to further cuts last night for private investors, which no one but they have agreed to, so that shortly we will see how many institutions go along with the scheme and how many will sue as a result of the forced haircut that cuts about 74% from Net Present Value. We will also see law suits in London concerning the $18Bn of Greek debt that is governed under British law which may have quite interesting results. The Troika’s projections rest upon a 95% participation by private investors and I think they are living in a dream state if this is their expectation. In a Reuter’s article this morning they report: "The 32 members of the IIF's larger creditors' committee had a least 44 billion in euros in residual holdings.” If this is correct then the IIF is only representing 12.2% of the Greek bondholders.

The ECB has swapped their bonds with Greece and taken a senior position to private bond holders clearly indicating that they can swap their bonds with a sovereign nation to change any clause they do not like and if they can do it with Greece they obviously can do it with any other nation so that we will soon see law suits challenging this operation. We may also see, as a result of this, some institutions not subject to European manipulation, selling their positions as they do not wish to be subordinated to the whims of the ECB. I would also make note that the ratings agencies may take due note of this action and might reduce the ratings of all of the sovereign nations in Europe based upon this action. In evaluating a sovereign there is credit risk and political risk and I assert that the political risk has now been greatly magnified.

The ECB tell us that they will give their profits on the Greek bonds bank to the European central banks except there are no profits, only severe losses presently, so that all of this talk of profits is really the expectation of getting their money back at maturity which is years away. Their claim in the Press is not just misleading but an outright charade of mis-direction.

Greece will shortly be placed into “Default” by S&P and Fitch which will trigger default language in all kinds of securitizations including Greece’s $90Bn in derivatives and may cause disgorgement from accounts that are forbidden to hold defaulted bonds.

After the country has been placed into “Default” the banks will soon follow and once again there will be all kinds of consequences in interbank lending, securitizations, collateral agreements et al from all of this.

The CDS contracts for Greece may or may not function as they stand but, as I am quite certain will happen, not enough bond holders tender their bonds for the new debt so that Greece will pass the “Collective Action Clause” which will certainly trigger CDS in my opinion and if not will show the fallacy of that market.

The structure of the deal puts the IMF/EU/ECB clearly in control of the finances of Greece so they have replaced some sort of Czar with the bureaucrats of the Troika and the country no longer will control its own finances as they traded away their sovereignty for cash. In fact, an escrow account will be set up for Greece which will be controlled by the Troika and Greece is being forced to change their Constitution pledging to pay their creditors before providing any money for the country. A quick study of the math reveals that Greece will get about 19 cents on the Dollar and the rest of the money is the sovereign nations of Europe paying back their banks with the money they have supposedly lent to Greece. Greece is now nothing more than a conduit for the nations of Europe to pay back their own financial institutions. 

Now we will see if the Parliaments in Europe will go along with this plan as many still have to approve it and a careful reading of the math involved here may be troubling for some governments especially Finland and the Netherlands.

We will also see, with Greek elections looming, how the citizens react to all of this either in the polling booths or in the streets as an additional $4Bn of spending cuts have been mandated by the Troika and they state that the money will not be paid to Greece until they are implemented which must be by the end of February.

The total outstanding debt for Greece will now rise to $1.270Tn as new debt pays off old debt in a country with substantial negative growth so that the real situation, regardless of what we are told, worsens.

In early May Greece faces its next bond payments so there may be a re-do for all of this in several months’ time.

If Greece is actually going to get the next round of the bailout then the other side of the coin is the increased debt being taken on by the other countries in Europe which could cause more downgrades as the new debt to GDP numbers are assessed.

“A sleight of hand is not magic; just a trick. It is amazing to me these days how proficient the EU and the ECB have become in turning tricks.”

-The Wizard
 

 

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Tue, 02/21/2012 - 09:29 | 2180467 knight99
knight99's picture

i am hearing the NET CDS on Greece will only be 2.8 billion approximatly. If this is the case not a big deal but I can't help to think this is not the case considering all the can kicking just to avoid a CDS trigger any input would be appreciated.

Tue, 02/21/2012 - 09:50 | 2180523 withnmeans
withnmeans's picture

A little off topic, I'm finding it strange that not only Lloyd Blankfein is quitting but others on the top of Goldman are stepping down. Hmmmm , something is up "or should I say down"

Tue, 02/21/2012 - 09:56 | 2180538 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Only the morgue will survive this next financial crisis.  Actually I guess I could modify that, any entity with a lot of physical will ultimately survive the massive deflation then hyperinflation that will eventually occur.

Tue, 02/21/2012 - 09:59 | 2180578 economics1996
economics1996's picture

Reminds me of the confederates celebrating when the shots were fired at Ft. Sumter. 

Tue, 02/21/2012 - 10:02 | 2180592 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Certainly is very clear as to why JPM has been re-hypothicating anything in their vaults of physical value now doesn't it?

Tue, 02/21/2012 - 11:30 | 2180872 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Gold, bitchez

Went vert to $1755 just now....I do want it to come down during the next two weeks though

Tue, 02/21/2012 - 11:40 | 2180906 redpill
redpill's picture

Bad boys bad boys

Whatcha gonna say

Whatcha gonna say when yo counterparty can't pay

Tue, 02/21/2012 - 10:08 | 2180613 caconhma
caconhma's picture

Let us review the Greek situation.

Using the GM & Chrysler medicine, Greece lenders could forgive most of Greek debts and the Central Banks could just print more funny-money compensating Greek debt holders.

Greece will have a "clean" start and, without accumulating new debts, will solve its problems. After all, the Central banks are printing mountains of funny money every single day. However, this solution would drastically reduce the Zionist Banking Mafia strangulation and enslavement of Greek people. From the Mafia point of view, such solution is NOT acceptable.

Tue, 02/21/2012 - 11:41 | 2180910 ElvisDog
ElvisDog's picture

The problem with your plan is that every other EU debtor nation - Spain, Italy, Portugal, Ireland, France - is going to want the same deal. I.E. instant hyperinflation.

Tue, 02/21/2012 - 12:21 | 2181105 Canucklehead
Canucklehead's picture

http://www.heritage.org/index/country/greece

... and the Greek people repeatedly vote for this...

Tue, 02/21/2012 - 10:06 | 2180606 Element
Element's picture

"When you buy something that goes down in value immediately, that's bad debt ... If it has no potential to increase in value, that's bad debt." - David Bach, CEO Finish Rich Inc.

Tue, 02/21/2012 - 11:34 | 2180890 WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

Uh, David, if you pay cash for it, it's a bad investment, not bad debt.

Tue, 02/21/2012 - 10:26 | 2180666 a growing concern
a growing concern's picture

Maybe he's tired of being the Gimp?

Tue, 02/21/2012 - 10:35 | 2180703 Vince Clortho
Vince Clortho's picture

Time to promote George Costanza to Senior V. P.

Tue, 02/21/2012 - 10:00 | 2180585 knight99
knight99's picture

thanks

Tue, 02/21/2012 - 12:26 | 2181128 Watson
Watson's picture

Only if you did not arrange to take collateral as the trade moved in your favour.

Which may well have been true a few years ago (though through oversight/laziness and lack of imagination, rather than deep conspiracy).

However, do people really do new CDS business without (a pretty slick) collateral exchange process in place?

Tue, 02/21/2012 - 09:35 | 2180477 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

'After the country has been placed into “Default” the banks will soon follow and once again there will be all kinds of consequences in interbank lending, securitizations, collateral agreements et al from all of this.  ...

Greece will pass the “Collective Action Clause” which will certainly trigger CDS in my opinion and if not will show the fallacy of that market.'

The fact that S&P and Fitch have to place anyone in the 'Default' category is revealing in itself. No market only market making and following the lead of the Banking Theocracy. Complete farce. Something is only so if the Chosen Ones say it is so. Otherwise keep waiting...

Tue, 02/21/2012 - 09:35 | 2180478 eddiebe
eddiebe's picture

Is anybody here as sick of hearing about greece as I am? Is this really the most important thing in the world? WTF

Tue, 02/21/2012 - 09:44 | 2180497 Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

Srsly.....its sad, but I am sick of seeing the headlines:

"Greece may default!"

"IMF/EU/Troika comes to agree on Greece"

"But wait, Greece owes MORE money after bailout!"

"EU/IMF/China/Unicorns may bail out Euro Zone"

"Germany says Greece owes even MORE money!"

and of course, the favorite:

"Greece is fucked"

Tue, 02/21/2012 - 09:57 | 2180559 Element
Element's picture

let's not forget;

 

"Greek Parliament finally admits zerohedge has been right all along!"

Tue, 02/21/2012 - 10:02 | 2180593 economics1996
economics1996's picture

You are such a element.

Tue, 02/21/2012 - 09:54 | 2180545 bdc63
bdc63's picture

YES!  I am TOTALLY sick of hearing about Greece ... its getting in the way of talking about Italy and Spain ...

Tue, 02/21/2012 - 10:30 | 2180679 Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

Very true.  Part of the reason Greece didn't want to default, IMO, is because its politicans didn't want to answer to the bankers/hedge fund guys who would have lost money.  So they threw their people under the bus to save that "embarrassment" (even thought we know what the true embarrassment is).

Italy/Spain are MUCH different as they owe way more money, and their bond spreads and yields have the chance of being so volitile, that it affects ALL markets..... not just EZ.

Tue, 02/21/2012 - 09:56 | 2180557 jcaz
jcaz's picture

LOL-  thank you for being a perfect example of the problem, Ed.....

Go watch your Netflix if you don't like the tunes here.

Tue, 02/21/2012 - 10:04 | 2180603 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Well, Ive got to say Im with Ed, totaly sick of this 3 ring circus dog and pony show day after day for a year...meanwhile our own economy is in tatters and imploding fast. This is the worst diversion ever.

Tue, 02/21/2012 - 10:13 | 2180629 Moneyswirth
Moneyswirth's picture

Well this could make it the "best" diversion ever.  That is to say effective.

Nevertheless I agree 100%.  I'm sure the Obama administration is fine with an imploding Eurozone so long as it takes attention away from the straw house in a windstorm that is the American economy. 

Tue, 02/21/2012 - 10:28 | 2180674 a growing concern
a growing concern's picture

I think the contagion will bring a Greek collapse to our doorstep in a real hurry once the air oscillator and the excrement actually meet.

Tue, 02/21/2012 - 11:07 | 2180797 eddiebe
eddiebe's picture

Glad I made you laugh jcaz, and thank you for pointing out what my options are.

Tue, 02/21/2012 - 09:58 | 2180572 Unholy Dalliance
Unholy Dalliance's picture

Crikey! What is your real name - Rip van Winkle? Enjoy your snooze, did you?

Tue, 02/21/2012 - 10:10 | 2180623 Moneyswirth
Moneyswirth's picture

Yeah, talking about Greece sucks.  But it takes attention away from those other non-important issues like the social and economic collapse of the USA, impending war with Iran and/or Syria, etc. 

But to answer your question, the crisis with Greece and the Eurozone is the most important "thing" on this blog as it were.  If you don't like it, feel free to leave.

 

 

Tue, 02/21/2012 - 11:44 | 2180917 ElvisDog
ElvisDog's picture

But in my experience we denizens of ZH are the only ones in the U.S. anyway that are even aware of the situation in Greece. None of my well-educated friends and colleagues are even aware of it or care about it if they are. The ZH community are definitely the only ones talking about Greece.

Tue, 02/21/2012 - 09:39 | 2180487 YesWeKahn
YesWeKahn's picture

I am still looking for the bullishness the ES index is princing in.

Tue, 02/21/2012 - 10:03 | 2180488 Mercury
Mercury's picture

We may also see, as a result of this, some institutions not subject to European manipulation, selling their positions as they do not wish to be subordinated to the whims of the ECB. I would also make note that the ratings agencies may take due note of this action and might reduce the ratings of all of the sovereign nations in Europe based upon this action. In evaluating a sovereign there is credit risk and political risk and I assert that the political risk has now been greatly magnified.

That's what its all about.  Even if things are arranged so that CDS doesn't get triggered en masse this time and even if future CDS contracts are written to cover this kind of event, the risks/costs associated with buying Euro sov. debt just went up big time.

Even worse, those risks/costs aren't explicit or measurable but contingent upon the whims and expediencies of  whatever Eurocrats are in the room at any particular place/time.

Maybe they thought if it "worked" so well for Chrysler and the US capital markets it can work for Greece and the Euro sov. debt markets.

Tue, 02/21/2012 - 09:42 | 2180493 Commander Cody
Commander Cody's picture

I wonder if there is any real capital to pay debts?

Tue, 02/21/2012 - 09:46 | 2180505 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

It's always easy to "live" in the theoretical world of concepts, visions, words and hubris.

Once you actually have to live by the sword, it's suddenly a different story. 

Greece should be a wake up call to all the other "Domino Countries" around the world: you could be next. And probably will. 

Tue, 02/21/2012 - 09:48 | 2180513 ballafun
ballafun's picture

The best part, someone else will pay the price of mistakes/frauds being done by so called thinktank of EU. Anyways thats the norm in world anywhere. And biggies will make money, and none will bail out smallies

Tue, 02/21/2012 - 09:49 | 2180518 FranSix
FranSix's picture

The The, just to cheer yuz all up.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=phWv7l8Lm_A

Tue, 02/21/2012 - 09:51 | 2180527 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

It looks to me like the "bailout" is all going to creditors. More debt, simply to service old debt.  Isn't this the very definition of a liquidity trap or capital malinvestment?  What am I missing here?

Tue, 02/21/2012 - 09:56 | 2180554 bdc63
bdc63's picture

... you're not missing one darn thing ... unfortunately ...

Tue, 02/21/2012 - 10:40 | 2180715 Vince Clortho
Vince Clortho's picture

Greece and her people must fall in order to save the too big too fail bank cartel.

Tue, 02/21/2012 - 09:52 | 2180537 eddiebe
eddiebe's picture

Somehow I think this whole EU/Greek pony show (by design?) is sucking everyones attention away from issues that should really be looked at. Like depletion of resources, topsoil erosion, over fishing of the oceans, control over food grain seed, viral population growth, lack of accountability of our polititians..Who really gives a shit about wether greeks pay their taxes or not. Let them sort it out already, or not.

Tue, 02/21/2012 - 11:18 | 2180827 roccman
roccman's picture

yep

 

but what happens to greece is the fix for the other problems

 

greece just happens to be the tip of the spear - a forced powerdown and subsequent killoff of the human project is the end game...and THAT solves the overshoot problem right quick.

 

when global commerce stops - because of a massive global default - the food and oil stop showing up at your doorstep...

 

you will be lucky to survive 30 days (i know - rambo types are good for 45 days)

 

in 6 months to a year when the human project is 10% of what it is now...the elite re-emerge from their bunkers - the goon sqaud scrapes the bodies off the sidewalks (renders each into 5 gallons of bio diesel) and the machine is spun up again for another 1000 years with a chipped surviving slave class doing all the work.

 

peak oil goes away...peak food...peak climate change...peak credit - all a thing of the past - no nation - states - just one big corporation...

Tue, 02/21/2012 - 11:49 | 2180943 ElvisDog
ElvisDog's picture

Interesting conspiracy, except most of the so-called "elite" that I come in contact with are morons. They are pysociopaths (sp?) good at one thing, or just lucky in their birth. The smart people I know who could actually pull off such a plan are in the upper middle-class sphere. So the elite will have to sign some of them up to run things after the apocalypse.

Tue, 02/21/2012 - 11:57 | 2180988 roccman
roccman's picture

Perhaps, but they still have most of the world believing we landed on the moon - 911 was pulled off by some guy in a cave - and peak oil is several 100s of years out and by then we will have fixed the problem...because after all - we landed on the moon.

Tue, 02/21/2012 - 12:07 | 2181047 ElvisDog
ElvisDog's picture

We did land on the moon you silly goose. It's pretty clear that "they" didn't make up the Space Shuttle program, so clearly we have both the ability to re-enter the Earth's atmosphere and the ability to send things up into space. The moon is only 250,000 miles from Earth. It's not that hard of a technical challenge, once you have demonstrated the ability to send a capsule into space and bring it back down again, to send something 250,000 miles away and land on the surface of a large, round object.

Tue, 02/21/2012 - 23:52 | 2183322 fiftybagger
fiftybagger's picture

Ever landed a rocket in zero atmosphere?  Oops, try again.

Tue, 02/21/2012 - 09:54 | 2180541 DOT
DOT's picture

The tomorrows are arriving. Dusty death awaits.

Tue, 02/21/2012 - 09:53 | 2180542 youngman
youngman's picture

Where would we be today if we did not have the posibility of printing money?????  Makes one wonder..?????

Tue, 02/21/2012 - 09:54 | 2180546 tinsmith
tinsmith's picture

I love that, for the Nth time, the CNBC headline reads "Stocks to open higher on Greece deal". Awesome.

Tue, 02/21/2012 - 10:11 | 2180627 Vergeltung
Vergeltung's picture

Bloomberg radio is the same thing. over and over. as if they know.

Right!

Tue, 02/21/2012 - 09:54 | 2180547 apberusdisvet
apberusdisvet's picture

I guess that destruction of contract law is not just an American thingy.  True Globalism at work.

Tue, 02/21/2012 - 10:04 | 2180605 rsnoble
rsnoble's picture

Didn't one of the US presidents recently say "The constitiution is just a piece of paper"?  They have put themselves above the law by buying the law. Not sure if they won't get what's coming to them or not, we'll see in the likes of God from GS.  He hasn't got a defense attorney and stepping down because he's going on vacation. But then again if he gets tried and convicted he could be going on vacation he just can't leave the island.

Tue, 02/21/2012 - 10:32 | 2180693 Calmyourself
Calmyourself's picture

Sitting US justices don't think the Con stitutio nis worth a shit, no positive entitlements..  Watch and WEEP..

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2012/02/03/ruth_bader_ginsburg_to_egypt_dont_use_us_constitution_as_a_model.html

Tue, 02/21/2012 - 10:49 | 2180748 FlyoverCountryS...
FlyoverCountrySchmuck's picture

NO, A Recent President DID NOT say that.

It was a hoax by Capital Hill Blue, Daily Kos whackjob Doug Thompson, who claimed someone told someone, who told HIM that Bush said it. He later withdrew it.

 

A simple piece of AgitProp designed to anger simple sheep, and keep them on the approved narrative.

Tue, 02/21/2012 - 09:56 | 2180550 durablefaith
durablefaith's picture

Great post. The unethical and precedent setting nature of this news is lost on most americans who will soon have to choose who to follow: Greece or Iceland.

http://durablefaith.com/2012/02/21/america-who-you-will-follow-greece-or-iceland/#comment-1444

 

Tue, 02/21/2012 - 10:09 | 2180614 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Yep, and geopolitics WILL be a major factor.  All city folk (especially welfare lemmings) will vote for Greece, while rural areas and states with abundant natural resources will vote for iceland.  If the overall politico decides to go Greece, then we get another civil war in this country with the BRICs ultimately funding their own interests and OWNING whatever is left over.  No fucking way Texas, Arizona, Utah, Nevada, Montana or Alaska will take the greek path. Hedge accordingly.

Tue, 02/21/2012 - 09:58 | 2180556 monopoly
monopoly's picture

"Greece is being forced to change their constitution". This is insane. Not going to happen.

And yes, this is important, Greece is front and center stage. If slave lords can change the rule of law on bonds and put "themselves" first then this is a game changer. Are you going to buy bonds in Europe or here knowing what can change with your safe "bond investment"? Does GM and Obama ring a bell.

Greece cannot pay this money back, just like we cannot pay it back. Sovereign downgrades and debt defaults affect us all, not just those in Greece. Would you like to guess how much debt our broken banks hold via Greece and Europe? Yes, this is important.

So, you think it is over at this point. Nope. Greece will be center stage again in a few weeks. Anyone here think all is well in Portugal, Spain, or Italy. Who will be next. So yes, this is important.

And this just gives us an idea of the path strewn with land mines this country is going to go through. You really think we are "decoupled" from Europe or the rest of the planet. That is just bullshit. You really think we have intelligent people running our federal reserve, White House or Congress.

It all matters, one small country, on cockroach. When was the last time you saw just 1 cockroach?

Tue, 02/21/2012 - 10:09 | 2180619 rsnoble
rsnoble's picture

I think you hit the nail on the mentioning something about our broken banks.  If this were a book i'd def be skipping to the last chapter.

Tue, 02/21/2012 - 10:26 | 2180664 trebuchet
trebuchet's picture

sov long term "risk free" rates just went up around the world... Oh no they didnt, yield is down cos ES ,money loooking for a safe haven.. bifurcation trade...

Tue, 02/21/2012 - 11:23 | 2180846 roccman
roccman's picture

yep

 

greece (like nazi germany)

 

were the beta tests

 

this is all training/calibration...moving the ball further up the field

Tue, 02/21/2012 - 09:57 | 2180569 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

Funny how all these idiots are focusing on Greece while Japan, with a GDP 18 times the size of Greece is getting worse...

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/02/20/us-japan-economy-trade-idUSTRE...

Japan logs record trade deficit in January

Japan posted its biggest ever trade deficit in January, topping the previous record seen during the financial crisis in 2009, Ministry of Finance data showed On Monday, underlining concerns that a persistent trade gap may undermine the country's ability to finance its debt.

The trade deficit stood at 1.475 trillion yen ($18.59 billion), against median market forecast for 1.468 trillion yen, marking a fourth straight month of deficit, as weak global demand and a strong yen hurt exports and robust fuel demand boosts imports.

And to top it all, Iran is playing right into the hands of the elite.

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/02/22/world/middleeast/iran-says-un-weapons-...

Iran Warns of Pre-Emptive Action in Nuclear Dispute

As tension grew in its nuclear dispute with the West, Iran was reported on Tuesday to have struck an increasingly bellicose tone, warning that it would take pre-emptive action against perceived foes if it felt its national interests were threatened.

Stupid Iran.

Tue, 02/21/2012 - 09:58 | 2180576 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

Also, the unemployed have found a new game to suck money from the government...

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2012/02/19/report-millions-jobless-file-...

Report : Millions of jobless file for disability when unemployment benefits run out
The New York Post reported Sunday that as unemployment checks run out, many jobless are trying to gain government benefits by declaring themselves unhealthy.

Tue, 02/21/2012 - 10:30 | 2180677 trebuchet
trebuchet's picture

UK unemployment rose by a mssive amount coz people outside hte labour force were counted back in... 

UK has clapmed down on Sickie Benefit claimers, forcing them to claim jobseekers allowance, its goign through now... 

 

popiint is Uk is ahead of the curve of US curve on this one, US trend will reverse when  the sickie claims run out or clampdown begins

Tue, 02/21/2012 - 11:16 | 2180822 rsnoble
rsnoble's picture

Well can you blame them? What's the alternative? Go off in the woods and die? I say suck the gov't dry and implode it. It's gona happen anyways, id rather do it fast than live my next 30 years in a constant state of deterioration.

I've already been doing that for 20 years now and im tired of it. Every career path i've tried has gradually gone to shit. Not just my personal position but in general.  Granted that's my fault being involved in what I was in but on the other hand when only a small % are making it then something is obviously wrong with this picture.

Tue, 02/21/2012 - 11:21 | 2180838 rsnoble
rsnoble's picture

And let's not get on the topic that's been popularized as of late: "make your own job".  That's the same thing as opening a business.  Very small success rate.  Millions of people just can't "make there income" in fast enough time to survive. It will never work. Things are so bad the gov't is actually planning on training military vets to become vegetable farmers.??? Really? Good luck with that. I know a guy that had a 50 acre vegetable farm for a few years and sales went to zilch when the economy turned and he couldn't even justify staying in business when all he hired were illegals. And now there telling vets that's the next big thing?  The only way that would ever work is if the gov't floats them and then in 10 years it will be the next big crash and flop but in the meantime kept gun loving killing machines calm and out of someone's hair.

Tue, 02/21/2012 - 11:25 | 2180855 eddiebe
eddiebe's picture

rsn, I think that is one of the governments best plans I have heard of in a long time. I'ts got my vote, for sure.

Tue, 02/21/2012 - 11:26 | 2180864 rsnoble
rsnoble's picture

LMAO. No, I actually read that somewhere. Just blowing off some steam till I go cut some firewood. Then again maybe I should've saved my energy for that.

Tue, 02/21/2012 - 11:42 | 2180914 roadhazard
roadhazard's picture

I'm splitting and stacking for next winter this afternoon.

Tue, 02/21/2012 - 11:59 | 2180937 roccman
roccman's picture

yep

 

takes 1 acre of land per person per year

 

and that is WITH fossil fuel inputs (pesticides and ferts)

 

fact is - most of the world has gotten hooked on 1) cheap unlimited energy and 2) debt

 

and both are coming to an end - pretty fucking quick

 

there is no happy chapter - really - overshoot will not be papered or permacultured over - overshoot cannot be negotiated with - a dieoff is a biological certainty for a species that has exceeded its carrying capacity (and we are somewhere in the range of 400 times above CC) - thomas malthus was right a couple hundred years ago - so too was the club of rome.

 

the "elites" have been preparing for this for a few thousand years - we just will not stop breeding - [.]

so an exponential function will always trump a linear one - the petri dish is full - we have doubled - it just takes a few seconds for the elasticity to realize what has happened

 

kinda like that wiley e coyote moment - he has long since flown over the cliff - what's left is the look down - the realization.

 

that's all folks

Tue, 02/21/2012 - 10:05 | 2180608 Sean7k
Sean7k's picture

What makes you think that Iran is not playing with the elite? 

Tue, 02/21/2012 - 11:25 | 2180856 rsnoble
rsnoble's picture

At this point in time it's hard telling what anyone is up to.  If WW3 turns out be "contained" and only a few nukes get dropped here and there and we end up with world government then it's obvious all the superpowers were in bed with each other all along and even more reason to hate them.

Tue, 02/21/2012 - 12:00 | 2181014 roccman
roccman's picture

They are

 

Iran is no more then the bad cop.

 

 

Tue, 02/21/2012 - 09:58 | 2180573 Sean7k
Sean7k's picture

This is where the face of fascism is finally exposed. Just as before, defaults will not be declared, terms will be made retroactive, bond holders will be painted as vultures and opportunists and the rule of law will be shredded. The courts will fill with lawsuits and the judges will turn a deaf ear. 

People will learn that their governments are bought, their courts are a sham and the law is what the bankers say it is. 

Strangely, the people will accept the constraints. Their livestyle will diminish and the great masses will live in poverty. Even if it takes twenty years to unfold. They will receive bread, they will enjoy the circuses, they will cower before the paid mercenaries. New taxes will be created and old ones expanded. Consumption taxes will penalize the people and make their meager earnings adequate for what they are willing to spend.

This is how the pendulum swings, from the class societies of the monarch and merchantilists, to the great awakening of Classical liberalism and the middle class, to the class societies of the fascists. 

The revolution will be weak and it will be televised. Unfortunately, it will die with a whimper. 

Tue, 02/21/2012 - 11:21 | 2180837 GeezerGeek
GeezerGeek's picture

"... their governments are bought, their courts are a sham..."

Welcome to the world of moral relativism. There is no more right and wrong for us, only looking out for number one. And if that requires an attitude of mutual back-scratching, so be it. After all, we ordinary folks can't expect Ivy-educated elites to experience shame and fall on their own swords, if only figuratively, can we?

America is beginning to pay the price for having turned it's back on a common morality. Laws based on "shall not commit murder", "shall not steal" and "shall not bear false witness" have joined "shall not commit adultery" and "shall not covet" in the dustbin of history. Some would say good riddance and join the march into a police state. Others, remembering the warnings of our founding fathers, will weep.

 

Tue, 02/21/2012 - 09:58 | 2180574 Snakeeyes
Snakeeyes's picture

Surprisingly muted bond market reaction, Must mean that no one thinks Greece will deliver, including me.  Neil Sedaka's "Breaking up is hard to do" should be rewritten as "Spending cuts are hard to do."

Euro-area Finance Ministers Reach Agreement on 2nd Round of Bailouts for Greece: Bond Market Reaction is … Meh


http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com/2012/02/21/euro-area-finance-ministers-reach-agreement-on-2nd-round-of-bailouts-for-greece/

Tue, 02/21/2012 - 10:00 | 2180587 end-of-daze
end-of-daze's picture

The Greek crisis is a test bed for the rest and the rest are a smokescreen for the US problems.

 

Tue, 02/21/2012 - 10:04 | 2180594 Kevlar Akubra
Kevlar Akubra's picture

 

There once was a nation called Greece

Whose folk were effectively fleeced

It was all doom and gloom

Til they had a small boom

Shipping chicken chow mein to the East

Tue, 02/21/2012 - 10:02 | 2180596 Stuart
Stuart's picture

CDS, forever voluntary....  to all CDS holders, SUCKERS and thanks for the fees.. lol

Tue, 02/21/2012 - 10:16 | 2180640 Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

If you woke up today and found out your bonds are no longer protected by CDS what do you do? Sell.

Tue, 02/21/2012 - 10:31 | 2180690 a growing concern
a growing concern's picture

Lock n' load?

Tue, 02/21/2012 - 10:18 | 2180641 rsnoble
rsnoble's picture

Here's what Mish says:

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/

He's usually pretty well thought out on this stuff, pretty much calls it horseshit also.

I kinda like the combination of the 2 websites, I get fired up and break out the tin foil hat and food supplies and gold coins on ZH then I use Mish to rationalize it all and put things in perspective.  In other words keep all that stuff but don't break it out just yet as you may have another 30 days of normality in your life.

Tue, 02/21/2012 - 10:36 | 2180706 Downtoolong
Downtoolong's picture

So far, the markets seem to be yawning over this. At least some investors recognize the inevitable truth; the Greek bailouts are never going to end. Think of it like Middle East peace talks. Each time the underlying economic forces overcome the overlying politics and central financial plans, these agreements will fall apart faster than it takes to create them, only to be replaced by another again, and again, and again.  Each time more money will be printed to throw at the problem. After all, this is the second Greek bailout agreement in six months, right? One more and they will almost match the frequency of Fed bailouts and quantitative easing in the U.S.

 

This is the new paradigm we live in now, where mountain ranges of debt and centrally planned fiscal and monetary policy dominate action in all world markets. $100 billion here, $500 billion there. It all makes that whopping $5 billion Facebook IPO look small and trivial by comparison; doesn’t it? Oh well, when central banks and their Wall Street masters discover they can profit by coercing the people’s governments to do their bidding for them, who needs the private sector anyway.

Tue, 02/21/2012 - 10:43 | 2180726 the 300000000th...
the 300000000th percent's picture

This will never end

 

Tue, 02/21/2012 - 11:28 | 2180870 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Tomorrow better arrive for a lower gold price, because I need to buy more, and I just got priced out.  Show daddy $1680, just one more time!

Tue, 02/21/2012 - 11:29 | 2180876 ElvisDog
ElvisDog's picture

My favorite part of the MSM spin: that Greek debt will shrink to 120% of GDP by 2020. Anytime I hear government projections out more than 1-2 years, my bullshit meter goes off. Greek GDP growth estimates for Q4 2011 were off by a mile and we're supposed to believe 2020 estimates?

Tue, 02/21/2012 - 11:38 | 2180900 ElvisDog
ElvisDog's picture

Good point in the article - the only way this bailout is successful is if Greece is/was a surplus country, so they could actually pay off their debt load. They are not, which means that every month the situation will get worse until the debt load (even with the 70% haircut) returns to the present condition. Except that next time there will be very few private holders of Greek debt, so who will be there to take it up the ass next time?

Tue, 02/21/2012 - 11:42 | 2180912 tony bonn
tony bonn's picture

mark - this is the most stupendous coverage of the greek debt situation i have read in the past 2 years (and yes i have read more than 1)

it is succinct and covers the salient points without resort to circuitous labrynthine byzantine sentence structure  (*wink* *wink* zh :-o) to make its point. thank you for a job well done...

Tue, 02/21/2012 - 11:51 | 2180954 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

(paste):  It is a deal pretty much as expected

yep

dealing superficially w/ the effects of past mistakes is itself a mistake

they will not allow debt to clear b/c there is nothing to clear it with except more debt or other "paper coupons" created by~~debt!

theproblems are very, very deep and these clowns will never get to them;  hammer pounds nails;  if printing isn't the answer, it must be "somebody else's" problem = thePeople's, sheeples', and their kiddies'

the nobility, er, elites, are just putting their expense vouchers in their chamber pots so the maids can clean up after their morning "toilet" and then go enjoy their cake!

once the "e-CON-0'mist-ers&miss-es" "grow" the economy, these problems won't seem so important

you just wait and see!

L0L!!!  fuking moronic whipsocks!

Tue, 02/21/2012 - 11:54 | 2180979 ElvisDog
ElvisDog's picture

This is a bit off-topic, but I'm curious about the beach vacation season in Greece. Typically, a lot of German tourists go down to Greece for their holiday, right? I wonder what the social dynamic is going to be in Greece tourist spots this year?

Tue, 02/21/2012 - 11:56 | 2180989 PhilB
PhilB's picture

CDS conttracts typically were no more than 5 years. So the very fact that Greece ran into problems more than 2 years ago, means a large portion of the CDS have matured.

What remains will have minimal net effect, but who knows if there is any concentrations outside the major financial institutions.

This deal is clearly unsustainable in the medium term and maybe in the short term. But the May bond maturities no longer are relevant if they do the swap (with CACs im sure). Whatever holdouts that happen with the March 20th bond will be the only real date. The May bonds pose no risk by themselves.

Tue, 02/21/2012 - 12:05 | 2181036 BiPolarFrenchman
BiPolarFrenchman's picture

Western Civilization started with Greece, may as well end there too.

Tue, 02/21/2012 - 19:05 | 2182591 LongOfTooth
LongOfTooth's picture

Where I’m from terminology like “turning tricks” is used by folks in the business of prostitution.  Oh wait, that applies to this situation too so just ignore my observation.


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